I have been told not to be fooled, stocks and etfs are not the economy, I had 180k put aside waiting for the feds to stop raising rates, now I’m ready to get back in the market, but it looks like the pause is forever and Faang will still rise/fall, I’m confused, what could be the way moving forward
Don’t expect a soft landing, we know inflation is still far from it’s 2% destination -the FOMC didn’t reduce rates yet, we can never foretell their moves these days
It’s always good to have a fin-plan, I work with a professional planner, multi-market and fixed-income strategist, the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio but will provide a legitimate income
The Great Depression was not inflationary - it was Deflation. Inflation is an inconvience. Deflation kills. Don't buy now wait til later when cheaper. Don't take a loan to buy an asset because it is a falling knife. Invest in other markets because their currency is growing. Deflation kills an economy.
He seriously underestimates the difficulties of the transition from the manufacturing and export oriented Chinese economy to a consumer driven one. These difficulties are political ones, ideological ones, in medium terms demographic ones and social ones, where the latter means that a large part of the Chinese workers simply are not fit to thrive in a service driven economy at least not in a way of common prosperity. He massively overestimates the trade surpluses which China can gain by the trade with the likes of Peru, Indonesia etc., this simply doesn’t work by the numbers, i.e. the GDP per capita of these trading ‚partners‘. China as always will trade their goods for the others‘ commodities … to manufacture more goods … transition failed!
China is investing in their economy and we are loosing like for example Elon starting FSD in China instead here or Apple making their products in China instead here or sending our money to Israel and Ukraine and when our people cannot buy house or live from pay check to pay check.
That's because he was queued up for billions in court now that the FTC came out and said fsd is a scam and deadly. China doesn't care and you can't sue rich people there.
I think it's hilarious when people act like Republicans have EVER IN HISTORY spent 20 cents on people who can't afford food. The money to Ukraine is to keep a 20 trillion dollar war from happening. It's not a gift. Jeez
If Powell lets optics and political commentators influence when he cuts then he is no longer operating independent of the political process. That's why he has stated in the latest meeting that they will cut based on the data now and before he stated the same thing. The fact that humans are in general terrible at correlation and have a tendency to group two things happening at the same time together Good guest but I have a hard time trusting people who refer to other well-educated and knowledgeable people with different opinions as idiots. It's that disrespectful overconfidence that is the sign of someone with a lack of humility who gets over their skis. Now if a person is unknowledgeable that's one thing He's referring to fed governors just have a more dovish opinion thab he does.
Jack, I like Vincent but he has missed the point on why rising rates in Japan matter. It is NOT as simple as the Government just paying itself because the BoJ owns a lot of the debt. ( btw, it’s closer to 50% than 100%). Example -Look no further than the losses that the US FED is taking (and passing on to Taxpayer) on its own bond portfolio as rates rise. Vincent needs to do his homework and come back to talk about this properly.
If xinping puts geopolitical goals ahead of economic goals, all this traditional analysis is not gonna matter. Seems like they are slowly gearing up for war economy. They want to ramp up manafacturing capacity even tho they r already # 1. Yellen was just there to discourage them, didn't work. End of the day, gdp, inflation rate etc wont matter to the party. We need to view things in that context, not thru western lived financial experience. If they gain a major military win, they get to re-write global rules of finance and it solves all these economic problems in one-go. Secondly they r waiting for something to break in western markets so they can strike at USD. So they r not likely to devalue yuan - they want it to gain global prestige. Third with the recent yentervention, CNY/JPY fall gives them more breathing room so they don't need to devalue.
Completely bonkers. China depends on the US and Europe for 75% of exports. They literally cannot exist without the US system. Xi is just acting like he's going to war so that he can keep control of China. That place is a powder keg. Imagine everyone you know just got informed that everything they ever worked for is now WORTHLESS. that's China now. She probably went there to extend help if they need it.
It is not possible that at the same time China and Japan have deflation and US and Europe have inflation. The yuan and yen will crash and that will take inflation out from US and Europe.
The chinese use a controlled peg, which does fluctuate and has went from 8.28 before 2004 to 6.2 in the teens to 7.2 today. And if it wasn’t for the control and had floated freely, we can be pretty sure it would have been attacked and perhaps collapsed akin to the SE currencies in the 90s . China didn’t always have a titan economy and would have be subject to attacks. The controlled peg is one of the major reasons that the chinese have been so successful.
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I'd much rather be in deflation than in inflation.
Jack Farley is becoming king of podcast finance. The content has been so good - but very very complicated... please keep it coming.
I have been told not to be fooled, stocks and etfs are not the economy, I had 180k put aside waiting for the feds to stop raising rates, now I’m ready to get back in the market, but it looks like the pause is forever and Faang will still rise/fall, I’m confused, what could be the way moving forward
The stocks will go down further, and good luck on the feds pausing rate hikes with all the hawkishness that has failed to keep up with inflation
If unemployment is able to remain steady while the fed hikes and inflation falls back to target a soft landing might be on the table
Don’t expect a soft landing, we know inflation is still far from it’s 2% destination -the FOMC didn’t reduce rates yet, we can never foretell their moves these days
Fixed income Tbills and bonds may work for you while you try to figure out the next entry point for stocks
It’s always good to have a fin-plan, I work with a professional planner, multi-market and fixed-income strategist, the fixed income portion of your portfolio won’t simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio but will provide a legitimate income
US could only wish for such deflation. Idiotic analysis. It is inflation that is the problem, not deflation.
Just wait till they export The deflation.
@therealscot2491 US don't want deflation that's why it puts up tariffs Chinese products.
He said inflation is the problem, didn't you listen?
The Great Depression was not inflationary - it was Deflation. Inflation is an inconvience. Deflation kills. Don't buy now wait til later when cheaper. Don't take a loan to buy an asset because it is a falling knife. Invest in other markets because their currency is growing. Deflation kills an economy.
China has Gold, a lot of Gold.
Not even close to the US
Fooled by a mountain of silver then, unaware the usa has a mountain of treasuries now
$10T has to be refinanced this year.
He seriously underestimates the difficulties of the transition from the manufacturing and export oriented Chinese economy to a consumer driven one. These difficulties are political ones, ideological ones, in medium terms demographic ones and social ones, where the latter means that a large part of the Chinese workers simply are not fit to thrive in a service driven economy at least not in a way of common prosperity. He massively overestimates the trade surpluses which China can gain by the trade with the likes of Peru, Indonesia etc., this simply doesn’t work by the numbers, i.e. the GDP per capita of these trading ‚partners‘. China as always will trade their goods for the others‘ commodities … to manufacture more goods … transition failed!
China is investing in their economy and we are loosing like for example Elon starting FSD in China instead here or Apple making their products in China instead here or sending our money to Israel and Ukraine and when our people cannot buy house or live from pay check to pay check.
That's because he was queued up for billions in court now that the FTC came out and said fsd is a scam and deadly. China doesn't care and you can't sue rich people there.
I think it's hilarious when people act like Republicans have EVER IN HISTORY spent 20 cents on people who can't afford food. The money to Ukraine is to keep a 20 trillion dollar war from happening. It's not a gift. Jeez
😂 the Americans always wait to beg president xi.🎉😢
Always love Vincent’s episodes! Although the dxj and ewj really got my head spinning 😂
Excellent guest for Economics. His calls for economics maybe not so much. Yet, I definitely learned a lot !
Utter crap
Always have a problem understanding half of what Vincent says.
He speaks broken english very fast, and when hes getting to the main part of his point, he just kinda.... lowers a ....volum......... mumbles
Vinny is such a great guest. Love his down to earth demeanor and complex analysis.
How are people still mispronouncing Nvidia 🤦♂️
If Powell lets optics and political commentators influence when he cuts then he is no longer operating independent of the political process. That's why he has stated in the latest meeting that they will cut based on the data now and before he stated the same thing. The fact that humans are in general terrible at correlation and have a tendency to group two things happening at the same time together
Good guest but I have a hard time trusting people who refer to other well-educated and knowledgeable people with different opinions as idiots. It's that disrespectful overconfidence that is the sign of someone with a lack of humility who gets over their skis. Now if a person is unknowledgeable that's one thing He's referring to fed governors just have a more dovish opinion thab he does.
A delusional character!
We gotta get Vincent back for more financial history!
Can't believe he is giving idiotcoin a pass.
Ooooh…..discovered MMT？
BwahahahhahahahahhahhHhaaaaaaaaa
Great interview. Thank you!
哈哈哈哈 yayaya always collapsing anglo cant speak one Chinese word
Jack, I like Vincent but he has missed the point on why rising rates in Japan matter. It is NOT as simple as the Government just paying itself because the BoJ owns a lot of the debt. ( btw, it’s closer to 50% than 100%). Example -Look no further than the losses that the US FED is taking (and passing on to Taxpayer) on its own bond portfolio as rates rise. Vincent needs to do his homework and come back to talk about this properly.
Jack , I'm a big fan but you def. had trouble understanding what Vincent was talking about. All good dude, it was kinda complicated...
stopped watching after 20 min impossible to hear what the guys says. good content but FIX THE SOUND fgs
If xinping puts geopolitical goals ahead of economic goals, all this traditional analysis is not gonna matter. Seems like they are slowly gearing up for war economy. They want to ramp up manafacturing capacity even tho they r already # 1. Yellen was just there to discourage them, didn't work. End of the day, gdp, inflation rate etc wont matter to the party. We need to view things in that context, not thru western lived financial experience.
If they gain a major military win, they get to re-write global rules of finance and it solves all these economic problems in one-go.
Secondly they r waiting for something to break in western markets so they can strike at USD. So they r not likely to devalue yuan - they want it to gain global prestige.
Third with the recent yentervention, CNY/JPY fall gives them more breathing room so they don't need to devalue.
Completely bonkers. China depends on the US and Europe for 75% of exports. They literally cannot exist without the US system. Xi is just acting like he's going to war so that he can keep control of China. That place is a powder keg. Imagine everyone you know just got informed that everything they ever worked for is now WORTHLESS. that's China now. She probably went there to extend help if they need it.
Thanks
Sabbelbüddel
Canadian investors just buy SPY, SHY, GLD?
Why should the YEN revalue if it has already been devalued by the BOJ?
very good. thx.
It is not possible that at the same time China and Japan have deflation and US and Europe have inflation. The yuan and yen will crash and that will take inflation out from US and Europe.
The chinese use a controlled peg, which does fluctuate and has went from 8.28 before 2004 to 6.2 in the teens to 7.2 today.
And if it wasn’t for the control and had floated freely, we can be pretty sure it would have been attacked and perhaps collapsed akin to the SE currencies in the 90s . China didn’t always have a titan economy and would have be subject to attacks.
The controlled peg is one of the major reasons that the chinese have been so successful.