I Did It Again -- I SOLD CrowdStrike Stock. It's Because of This...
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- Опубликовано: 20 июл 2024
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👨💼Brian Feroldi is an author (amzn.to/3JVr9Q0), investor, RUclipsr, and financial educator. He's been investing in the stock market since 2004. Brian likes to buy and hold the highest quality companies he can find.
👨💼Brian Stoffel is a writer, investor, RUclipsr, and financial educator. He's a teacher at heart. Brian has been investing for over a decade and has written over 4,000 articles for The Motley Fool. Brian plans his life and his investments around “antifragile” principles.
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Never ever sell winners at market value. Sell covered calls instead. Win win. Also, anybody catch J Powell’s comments?
“I would say that the risk that we keep our eyes on the most now is cyber-risk,” Powell said. “That's really where the risk I would say is now, rather than something that looked like the global financial crisis.”
That’s an economist is saying that, not a tech-savvy money manager.
I don't understand half of your financial abracadabra but in this case you totally nailed it.
If one is that concerned then why not sell all or most of the position. There are always opportunities out there, that being said for stocks you invest in which are the same type of stocks/companies I invest in, they are at high valuations a significant amount of the time. I hold for the long term and add on significant pullbacks assuming thesis is intact. Why let Wall Street dictate when I should trim if I know pullbacks happen every year. I f you trimmed Amazon or any FANG when it was in a similar growth phase you end up with a lot left on the table. My 2 cents.
P,S. ,, would love to see more of the other 2 Brians/Bryans on this channel.
Thank you for doing a video of running your video through your checklist. Please do more like these.
You are a time traveller or a genius
if you decide to sell CRWD on spikes, you should re-accumulate on dips. this is a long term winner
Good decision... :D
Thanks for the discussion. Re: network moat: nope, all companies do that, especially the hyperscalers like MS and Cloudflare. Re: risk of a breach: look Okta, MS, Teamviewer were breached (Okta twice!), stock stumbled a bit and is fine now.
Brian,
Peter Thiel in his book “Zero to One” says durability of cash flows are the most important factor in valuation of tech companies. Growth rate is not as important as durability.
In my mind, durability is correlated with moat and optionality. I personally sell only if I feel the moat and optionality have changed. Thx for the video.
What about P/E and P/S with that growth over the next 10 years? P/E on 6.7 - P/S on 4.2 - EPS on $57...
With the industry closer to 13+x P/S and 40+ P/E It would be an insane cheep stock. If they should be on par with P/E and P/S the price would be (PE $2288 - PS $1200) This is why i NEVER use only one metric like free cash flow, P/E or PS. I take them all into consideration. Divide it by 3 and you have $1292 in 10 years, seems more likely
Thanks Brian. Risk management and trimming gains very prudent. Definitely a lesson from the last few years peak and drawdown. My biggest regret is lack of risk management... And not going in bigger on tmdx earlier 😂
can i get this reverse discounted cashflow excel?
How do you decide how much to trim? Is it 20% of your Crowdstrike holding or more/less.
it is a volatile stock from my experience and i am gonna just hold it instead of freaking out it goes up and down.. how about PALO ALTO?
Very strong argument to trim at these levels considering its position in your portfolio. I might do the same. Thanks.
Its crazy that they didnt trim at the beginning of the bear market - caused by rate hike expectations ie discount rate for their valuation model has to be adjusted. But now they are trimming based on valuation concerns at the beginning of a rate cut cycle. 😅
This aged well lol 👏🏻
didn't you also sell MDB before the rally
very nice analysis, i found it useful. I was surpiced when you bought it anyway, the sell makes sense for me based on this data. i never bought this stock because of the very high valuation (i started investing three months ago :) ). The forward pe is very very high and remember projections are not guaranteed. I respectfuly disagree though with the sell of alphabet.
What about margin? They could improve margin, which means less revenue growth is needed.
This assumed the high end of possible margins
Just checked the weekly chart... a huuge divergance between RSI and price...not good at all
great video, thank you!
Trimming here is OK, but with the momentum the space has and it being the leader I think it still can reach the $500 level this year with a dip in September.
Like this format of going through the anti fragile framework.
This aged well
Prophet!
Now you can worry even more LOL
It's P/E ratio being almost 1000 seems like a great reason
Valuation was a good addition to the anti-fragile model. Love the ARR analysis. Have you considered conducting a back test of your portfolio's 2022 performance ? Obviously, 2022 was a bad year for growth investors and we're seeking to build confidence around risk adjusted growth strategies.
I'd be more worried now.
i don't understand most of this, but looking at stock history shows crowdstrike stock has been at a high like this for a whole month before you uploaded this, so why did you wait? are you a possible contributing victim of a short-sale?
we need a update video asap
You must have clairvoyance. You also sold near an all-time high, as well.
Sold half last month due to valuation, and the rest today. I find their QA process unbelievable. Couldn't imagine the things that have not been made known to us. At least it has been a good ride for the past year.
Congrats
We're in a secular bull market. No need to sell until cause to do so.
I’m going David Gardners way on this one.
Great timing on selling! CrowdStrike's stock is down 12% today after a widespread outage caused major disruptions for large companies around the world. On top of that, it's down another 18% over the past five days.
appreciate the level of detail on this one, thanks!
Growing emerging industry is Cybersecurity.
Have u looked Rubric? $RBRK?
Important point noted here is that if there is ever a hack or security breach with this cyber security company that is priced to perfection, it could easily collapse 50% in minutes. Russian, Chinese cyber criminals and terrorists are very sophisticated. So the question is how sophisticated is this company, how does it stay ahead of these hackers and cyber criminals and what is it investing in R & D to prevent this?
Why would anybody buy anything that's already priced to perfection when there's 3000 other companies to invest in
because CrowdStrike is successful, proven, is growing and working, is the leaders and may have much further to grow in its future , as any great business does.
are you coming from the future?
Why don't you set at least a trailing stop loss instead of already selling?
I want to buy some today after the crash. Anyone else?
I'd wait a couple quarters- bad liabilities with hospital and shipping shutdowns, just to name a few
Invest in Fortinet instead
You keep selling your winners. Jesse Livermore would be turning in his grave
He should state what would be a better place to put the money
its not the worst strategy ever. I recently trimmed my NVDA to finance a position in Tesla
@@weho_brian it’s a highly risky strategy. There’s a good reason why the best and most successful traders stick to their winners and cut their losers. Whilst Tesla has done well of late, it is still a far bigger loser than Crowdstrike, Nvidia, Eli Lilly. I would rather stick to Livermore’s method, not gamble my money on hope
Never ever sell winners at market value. Sell calls instead. Win win. If it goes down, you earn premium. If it goes up, you get to sell at a higher price, AND earn premium. I’ve made a buttload using this strategy on NVDA, CRWD, META, VRT….
@@loganlasvegas nice 👍
🤣
From a TA perspective this stock is about to break out 😅
That could definitely be true. But it's also still an 8% position
I get paid to guess
Are you checking crowdstrike 😂😂😂