Steve, thank you. You're the Man! This week, I have LARams, Baltimore, Seattle, and Las Vegas. I lean on (but not playing) New England, and Indianapolis. Good luck and I hit the like button!
No game is ever easy, just luck and I see my home town lions winning 38 to 29 . Last I was right on target Steve you have a great video as always been following your sports betting videos year in year out.🎉
SORRY STEVE BUT I THINK THIS SEASON HAS BEEN DIFFERENT AND THIS SHOW NEEDS TO BE CALLED "BETTING WITH THE PUBLIC". THIS YEAR HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC.
I can't control how bad some NFL teams are this year, it's just the reality. Like I said in the video, really hard to make a case for any of these ugly dogs.
@stevemerril1485 i understand. But these vegas lines dooped us all. I mean any teaser or anchor got blown out on all bets. I dont understand how all these 7+ favs got upset.
Thank you for the work and analysis you put up for us, Steve! Fading the public this week will definitely prove to be a hard pill to swallow with all those bad teams. In order of "safest" to "riskiest" I would rank them like this: Chicago, Carolina, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, New York Giants. But, I still want to do some more analysis before committing to any of them.
@@stevemerril1485 Agreed. It is a tough choice but reason I put the Giants as a riskier play is because the Raiders are at home playing a division rival, so I expect them to put at least a slightly better effort.
Thank you for the video! Great stuff. Newbie question- after the opening line, is the following line movement strictly due to the money coming in, or can it be from the books themselves responding to news about issues with the teams (injuries etc)? Hope the question was clear!
Good question Jeremy, the look ahead lines I was referencing are posted last week before the games are played, and then are taken down Sunday morning, and reposted with new openers after Sunday night, those lines are then adjusted based mainly on action/money, but sometimes injury news.
Man I like titans -8.5 Packers -5.5 Colts +7.5 Bears+3.5 Raiders+5 Taking the titans due to Will Anderson JR coming back he may not be 💯 but he will make an impact against an already sh#$y offense 🤑✅
I'm on chicago +3.5, feisty bears home dog for me. Like under 39.5 as well. Divisional game. No prop plays here. Like Denver- 5.5, can't trust raiders and Denver lost to raiders earlier in season so revenge game. Great video breakdown. Good luck. B daddy
@@KaisTheLimit Your comment makes no sense. I'm already doing the handicapping and work, making the plays, so why would I not sell them as well for an additional stream of income. The more I win, the more clients I get, and the more money I make. I've done this for 29 straight winning years, so obviously I'm doing something right.
@@SecretWatcher-s4n I don't know one way or the other, tr tracker says merril doing ok, most of wager talk apparently loses lots. But when you listen to any program of theirs, you literally hear everyone say they are #1 in all sports or certain sports. I've never heard anyone say I'm #5 😅. The answer? Every capper in America--- BETSTAMP. Then that's it. No guessing, no lying, no dispute.
Yes GREAT call actually.Bcs the original line went down 6 points or so ND Every other capper was talking under ND weather ND the over covered EVERY number u could have gotten from 36-42 as it landed on 43.
chances IND stays close to DET seem remote, but DET looking ahead to t-day game might be a thing. Seems like they’re playing to lock up home field in playoffs. Is IND teaser (+15) resonable ?
Good job, Steve. I'm liking the Philadelphia Eagles -3 over the LA Rams and the Chicago Bears +3 ½ over my Minnesota Vikings, I actually think the Bears may win that one straight up. Cheers from Ottawa, Canada🍁
Thanks for all the great info Since you pointed out the public was hot I've been going with the public and I haven't done bad this year I did take a small loss last week but like you said there is less line value I'll go with the public one more time GLTA
Great info Mr Steve I value and trust your word, shit I'm trying to work my way up to your client level, you're my top 3 guys I listen too and one of them is Mr Chucky, nobody is breaking it down like him but shit out to ya sir🙏💯🤑✅
Do you mean Steelers/Browns? Not really a similar spot. That was a division primetime game. That's actually not a lookahead spot. Carolina would be a lookahead spot, but off a loss, meh.
Fade the public, is there any history showing it's good to fade these plays? Seems like they just bet on good teams and bet against bad teams. Pretty boring but if trends hold, it's a winning strategy. In this era of parity, I get how that may not work but NFL has always had 14-2 , 13-3. 12-4 teams. Some of these speads don't seem so far out of line. Just wondering why the focus on it. Historically are these plays losing plays so they should be faded? Maybe the books are not making these lines big enough. Giants getting wrecked today. Bears getting beat down. Lions winning by 15 atm. Only one losing now is Panthers. And this has been season long thing. Bet these public plays are over 60% .
No mention of Gmen change at qb angle? Fanny Dimes has left the buildn enter Tommy Cutlets. Gimme those points if Nabers plays even better. BOL 🍀 Thanks Steve, u the man 🫡
I like the FTP bets this week. Yes, they're ugly, and that's the point. That doesn't mean we blindly bet them: for example, I'm not interested in betting the Panthers, no matter how much money is on KC.
Home favorites from -1.5 to -2.5; any dog +1.5 to +2.5; 2 team 6 points, lay -120 only. Draftkings has it good, fanduel-134 bad. Stick to Only those plays and you should come out ahead long term.
Getting value with kc. I'm surprised it's only 10.5. No paths to a panthers cover. Not enough defense and not enough offense. Barring a mahomes injury the chiefs win by at least 12. They should shut them out
@@stevemerril1485 , 7-1-1 this season and 12-5 last season…I’ve literally bet them every game since last season and are +21 units just betting on them. I drop two units on them when I really like the spot and the number.
@@stevemerril1485 In an uptrend (higher highs / higher lows) there is no resistance! But ya 100K, whole number resistance idea is valid on short time frames. Been doing well with Microstrategy trades, outperforming BTC 4X ytd. Entries have been 5% and 10% SL (5% for my gambly side / 10% for my conservative side) Hope all is well and you and the fam are doing great! Keep kickin azz SM!!
Exactly right, the trend is definitely still up, it's tested 100K several times and hasn't broken through yet, but when it does that might become the new support long-term.
@@stevemerril1485 That's usually the pattern, in fact it's usually a real nice time to add on (retest + confirmation candle). Another good spot is to long the 1st 15%+ dip, not blindly but after a confirmation candle. Disclaimer anything can happen, the sandbox kids could start lobbing things that go boom at each other again and price crashes. Obv if that does happen, great time to reenter after the confirmation candle.
I grew up in NoVA as a Washington Redskin fan during the '80s and '90s season ticket holder went to hundreds of games at RFK, so hard for me to get behind this current franchise.
I'd probably tease or parlay Detroit and Denver. Whichever gives better odds. Because I just can't with Indy and Vegas. SF without Purdy is interesting to look at. I'd think that fading them might make sense, but I really don't know what kind of backup Brandon Allen is.
I love the giants this week. Not nearly as bad as their record indicates. Poor QB and OL play has doomed them but otherwise a solid squad and well coached imo. Their fans love Tommy and the place will be rocking. Jones was constantly paralyzed by indecision. Tommy will let it rip for better or worse. This line should be around a FG.
![The Complete Story of Destiny! From origins to Shadowkeep [Timeline and Lore explained]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/9mbDXvDNqTU/mqdefault.jpg)
Best of luck on Sunday, thanks for watching everyone! 📺🤑💪👍🏈
Love the show man!
Me tooooooo
Public Favs went 3-1-1. 3-2 if you got Minnesota -3.5, but it closed at -3.
Yeah this show needs to be called "Bet with the Public". Fading the public is hurting us baaaad.
Buccs, Lions,Packers, Eagles, Broncos...all were Public plays.
Yep , but these guys will tell u they know everything.. 😂😂 they don't
Steve, thank you. You're the Man! This week, I have LARams, Baltimore, Seattle, and Las Vegas. I lean on (but not playing) New England, and Indianapolis. Good luck and I hit the like button!
Fading the public with a few of those Shoch, best of luck!
Raiders playing second string players
And the Raiders have pretty much quit on the coach. For whatever reason, you can bank on the Raiders getting blown out.
Steve, thanks for these videos and thanks for keeping it real for us. All your vids are must watch every week.
Thank you for watching!
Learning on each video. Thanks!
That's awesome to hear Tony, keep building that bankroll! 👍💲😎
No game is ever easy, just luck and I see my home town lions winning 38 to 29 . Last I was right on target Steve you have a great video as always been following your sports betting videos year in year out.🎉
Thanks for watching and commenting Robert
SORRY STEVE BUT I THINK THIS SEASON HAS BEEN DIFFERENT AND THIS SHOW NEEDS TO BE CALLED "BETTING WITH THE PUBLIC". THIS YEAR HAS BEEN HORRENDOUS BETTING AGAINST THE PUBLIC.
I can't control how bad some NFL teams are this year, it's just the reality. Like I said in the video, really hard to make a case for any of these ugly dogs.
@stevemerril1485 i understand. But these vegas lines dooped us all. I mean any teaser or anchor got blown out on all bets. I dont understand how all these 7+ favs got upset.
Miami big over New England
Thank you for the work and analysis you put up for us, Steve! Fading the public this week will definitely prove to be a hard pill to swallow with all those bad teams. In order of "safest" to "riskiest" I would rank them like this: Chicago, Carolina, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, New York Giants. But, I still want to do some more analysis before committing to any of them.
I think the hardest one to make a case for is the Raiders this week.
@@stevemerril1485 Agreed. It is a tough choice but reason I put the Giants as a riskier play is because the Raiders are at home playing a division rival, so I expect them to put at least a slightly better effort.
One of my favourite videos of the week Steve. Thank you for the great info!!
Thank you for watching Kendall
Thank you for the video! Great stuff. Newbie question- after the opening line, is the following line movement strictly due to the money coming in, or can it be from the books themselves responding to news about issues with the teams (injuries etc)? Hope the question was clear!
Good question Jeremy, the look ahead lines I was referencing are posted last week before the games are played, and then are taken down Sunday morning, and reposted with new openers after Sunday night, those lines are then adjusted based mainly on action/money, but sometimes injury news.
@@stevemerril1485 Gotcha, thank you!
Man I like titans -8.5
Packers -5.5
Colts +7.5
Bears+3.5
Raiders+5
Taking the titans due to Will Anderson JR coming back he may not be 💯 but he will make an impact against an already sh#$y offense 🤑✅
Best of luck Joe
Thank you Steve.
Do you still like the Giant even Tommy Devito as QB?
All Giants quarterbacks are awful, if anything it might be an upgrade
Free picks on thursday 9-1 oh baby free cash .. 💰 let’s cash big tomorrow
Colts +7.5
Bears +3.5
Houston -7
Arizona pick em
Best of luck
I'm on chicago +3.5, feisty bears home dog for me. Like under 39.5 as well. Divisional game. No prop plays here. Like Denver- 5.5, can't trust raiders and Denver lost to raiders earlier in season so revenge game. Great video breakdown. Good luck. B daddy
Steve Is the greatest of all time
Too kind Bryan 😁
Just remember if he could actually win at betting he wouldn’t be selling you anything 😂😂😂
@@KaisTheLimit Your comment makes no sense. I'm already doing the handicapping and work, making the plays, so why would I not sell them as well for an additional stream of income. The more I win, the more clients I get, and the more money I make.
I've done this for 29 straight winning years, so obviously I'm doing something right.
I comment because I'm trying to educate bettors to make them better and more profitable. I enjoy doing this.
@@SecretWatcher-s4n I don't know one way or the other, tr tracker says merril doing ok, most of wager talk apparently loses lots. But when you listen to any program of theirs, you literally hear everyone say they are #1 in all sports or certain sports. I've never heard anyone say I'm #5 😅. The answer? Every capper in America--- BETSTAMP. Then that's it. No guessing, no lying, no dispute.
Always great info ! Thanks Steve 👍💰
Good call on Thur.night over Pitt/Browns
TNF 9-1 (90%) 🤑
Yes GREAT call actually.Bcs the original line went down 6 points or so ND Every other capper was talking under ND weather ND the over covered EVERY number u could have gotten from 36-42 as it landed on 43.
great insight into the 'fade'....which dog do you like the most? I like chicago
The weather will be the factor with the Chicago game , better run game and better defense will win this game .
Good point
Thanks for the info
Thank you for watching!
Thank You Steve for Ohio State and Notre Dame.
👍💲💲
Here's a solid teaser: Packers -0.5 + Chargers +8.5
chances IND stays close to DET seem remote, but DET looking ahead to t-day game might be a thing. Seems like they’re playing to lock up home field in playoffs. Is IND teaser (+15) resonable ?
Good job, Steve. I'm liking the Philadelphia Eagles -3 over the LA Rams and the Chicago Bears +3 ½ over my Minnesota Vikings, I actually think the Bears may win that one straight up. Cheers from Ottawa, Canada🍁
Best of luck on Sunday Gio, always great to hear from you my friend!
My favs. Bears mini under you said 3 straight road games Vikings, sounds like under. Under rated cards Seattle under.
With you all the way. Love this segment. It has kept me away from many bad plays.
Glad to hear Paul
Thanks for all the great info
Since you pointed out the public was hot I've been going with the public and I haven't done bad this year
I did take a small loss last week but like you said there is less line value
I'll go with the public one more time GLTA
It's been working so far this year, but normally fading the public works best late in the season.
12:03
I like the rams a lot this week Steve
Good luck on Sunday night!
Look at Steve sporting the company gear! You’re going to have to include those hoodies in the Black Friday promo.
Great idea! 💡
Great info Mr Steve I value and trust your word, shit I'm trying to work my way up to your client level, you're my top 3 guys I listen too and one of them is Mr Chucky, nobody is breaking it down like him but shit out to ya sir🙏💯🤑✅
Keep building that bankroll 💲 Joe, looking forward to having you on board in the near future!
appreciate the content steve!! still building bankrolls
Keep building that bankroll 👍💲
thanks steve. surprised titans/texans didn't make the list.
So what did he actually pick?
Chiefs vs panthers feels like a big trap game just like Ravens vs Browns. +10 panthers will hit just watch.
Do you mean Steelers/Browns? Not really a similar spot. That was a division primetime game. That's actually not a lookahead spot. Carolina would be a lookahead spot, but off a loss, meh.
@@paulweeldreyer7457No I was talking about Ravens vs Browns when the big browns upset happened
@@paulweeldreyer7457Panthers kept it really close even though they lost, they covered the +10 spread
You can run on the Packers, you cannot run on the Vikings D, that is a big diff
Good point
Fade the public, is there any history showing it's good to fade these plays? Seems like they just bet on good teams and bet against bad teams. Pretty boring but if trends hold, it's a winning strategy. In this era of parity, I get how that may not work but NFL has always had 14-2 , 13-3. 12-4 teams. Some of these speads don't seem so far out of line. Just wondering why the focus on it. Historically are these plays losing plays so they should be faded? Maybe the books are not making these lines big enough. Giants getting wrecked today. Bears getting beat down. Lions winning by 15 atm. Only one losing now is Panthers. And this has been season long thing. Bet these public plays are over 60% .
Great show
Thank you Austin
When was the last time that the chiefs and mahommes had back to back losses ?
Appreciate the videos Steve
Remember Thanksgiving
Last Year against Green Bay !
Lions due for a WWE GOFF GAME AGAIN 😮
Any Trends
Raiders usually win in Denver
Denver wins at Raiders
NFL SETTING UP THIS WEEK, TO CONFUSE PEOPLE FOR THANKSGIVING.
COLTS WIN
BEARS LOOK LIKE CONTENDERS 😮
Lions now 45-18 ATS last four seasons
No mention of Gmen change at qb angle? Fanny Dimes has left the buildn enter Tommy Cutlets. Gimme those points if Nabers plays even better. BOL 🍀 Thanks Steve, u the man 🫡
Possible catalyst, but he's awful as well so really no upgrade or downgrade.
CASH THESE:
-Bucs MoneyLine
-Dolphins -7
-Packers MoneyLine
-Eagles-3
-Hurts to score a TD over 9.5rush attempts
-Goff over 1.5 passing TDs
-Richardson under 1.5 passing TDs
-Hunt over 17.5 rush attempts
-Otton over 49.5 rec yrds
😂😂😂😂😂
Thank you
Thank you for watching
I like the FTP bets this week. Yes, they're ugly, and that's the point. That doesn't mean we blindly bet them: for example, I'm not interested in betting the Panthers, no matter how much money is on KC.
Historically, this point of the season on the ugly dogs do start to cash more.
Love this weekly video Steve.
Thank you for watching!
Giants +6 running game keeps getting better. Under total points
Colts at home is a cover machine! They’ve played every game to one score this season with AR.
Egoman Flores been figured out letting WILL Levis throw for 400 yards.... (flag). And Vikes been an under team since LT Darrisaw injury. Upset alert
How in the world did the Texans not make your list? Real question, how are you determining these public sides? Are you using splits or inside info?
Great video SM. I need to join you
Looking forward to having you on board Mike 💲
STEVE SUGGEST 2 TEAM TEASERS
Any games in which you cover both 3 and 7
Home favorites from -1.5 to -2.5; any dog +1.5 to +2.5; 2 team 6 points, lay -120 only. Draftkings has it good, fanduel-134 bad. Stick to Only those plays and you should come out ahead long term.
nice Jacket! how do we get one?
Feel free to message customer support, but I'm not sure there are any left 😉
Bet it all on the Cardinals
Take the Bears after the missed FG for the win or at least cover they are playing better and they should be motivated
With Daniel Jones being canned by NYG, I think Baker Mayfield cooks giants lay the points.TB -6
Let’s get it!💪🏈🔥💰 Boom! Boom!
-Chad J. Merrill
👍
How are your feelings about the Harbaugh bowl? And are there any public dog leans to fade?
Are you fading moneyline or point spreafs?
In this video, I'm talking pointspreads
I loved TB, like huge . And then i watched this shit. And i bet NYG. Seems to happen. They r a joke
There are some extremely bad NFL teams this season, no question about it.
This guy is reasonably sharp but...... Carefully worded "plays" so no matter how games actually go can spin a response. I see you Steve.
Best Bets +170 units All Sports L365 days, that's pretty straight forward, no spin needed.
Panthers +10.5?
Getting value with kc. I'm surprised it's only 10.5. No paths to a panthers cover. Not enough defense and not enough offense. Barring a mahomes injury the chiefs win by at least 12. They should shut them out
No Eagles or Commander
Thx Steve for your time and great information
Good show Steve, I like the colts to cover, no way I can put my hard-earned on giants 😁
Some ugly dogs indeed, Colts are probably the safest pick of all of them.
@@stevemerril1485, can’t put your hard earned money on the Giants but you can put it on the Colts fading the 7-1-1 ATS money making machine Lions?
@FREETHINKER-05 No question the lines have been a great moneymaker, 45-18 last 4 years
@@stevemerril1485 , 7-1-1 this season and 12-5 last season…I’ve literally bet them every game since last season and are +21 units just betting on them. I drop two units on them when I really like the spot and the number.
Thanks Steve! Love the videos and love the extra content you and Drew Martin put out. Good luck today!
Seattle ml
Anthony makes you RICHardson. I feel Lions early bye goingbto hurt them in the long run especially if they dont get the 1st round bye.
These dogs are flea ridden. Tough card
Dogs have been ugly all season Abe, question is if there's finally line value with them now?
3 team money line parlay
1 kc
2 detroit
3 washington
This right here
No juice. Need a 4th.
What could go wrong
@@MrStickyfingerscaNothing. Put the mortgage on it. Your wife will love you!
Washington ML and KC ML adds no value. Trash lmfao
You aware steve devito is starting for the giants?
He’s just talking about public money and line movement. This isn’t him suggesting these as best bets.
Yes, both quarterbacks are terrible so really no upgrade or downgrade
Steve i think all your public plays won and or covered!
That's wlld.
Public has been crushing it, there's some really bad teams in the NFL this year.
@stevemerril1485 Thanks for all your incredible analysis of the games.
Very enlightening Sir!
@@dtail4u Thank you for watching!
Your a great person Steve, I enjoy your content, watching from Edmonton Alberta, you know me, enjoy your Thanksgiving Weekend upcoming.....Let's Go!!!
Thank you Gerald, have a great Sunday!
Good job .
Thank you for watching
Good Job!
Thank you for watching
Great rundown as always, Steve. That schedule spot for Detroit is diabolical historically.
Thank you Steve always give us so much content
Thank you for watching and commenting Robert, always appreciate it!
Yer a fool listening to this greedy clown
LFG SM!!
Yes Joey!! Always Great to hear from you my friend, does Bitcoin get through 100k it sure is looking like resistance right now.
@@stevemerril1485
In an uptrend (higher highs / higher lows) there is no resistance!
But ya 100K, whole number resistance idea is valid on short time frames.
Been doing well with Microstrategy trades, outperforming BTC 4X ytd.
Entries have been 5% and 10% SL (5% for my gambly side / 10% for my conservative side)
Hope all is well and you and the fam are doing great!
Keep kickin azz SM!!
Exactly right, the trend is definitely still up, it's tested 100K several times and hasn't broken through yet, but when it does that might become the new support long-term.
@@stevemerril1485
That's usually the pattern, in fact it's usually a real nice time to add on (retest + confirmation candle).
Another good spot is to long the 1st 15%+ dip, not blindly but after a confirmation candle.
Disclaimer anything can happen, the sandbox kids could start lobbing things that go boom at each other again and price crashes.
Obv if that does happen, great time to reenter after the confirmation candle.
I worry that as computers become smarter blockchains will become weaker and turn into tulips
I've been watching this show for 3 years, I love the breakdown. I'd like to ask why you say, not my Washington Commanders though?😂
I grew up in NoVA as a Washington Redskin fan during the '80s and '90s season ticket holder went to hundreds of games at RFK, so hard for me to get behind this current franchise.
Double R One L ✌🏾
💯👍
You're DUE, Fade Master!! I'm on board! Gaaaaamble!!
💰💰💰
Let's CA$H
thanks $$$$
You crushed it AGAIN yesterday!
👍💲😁
Looking slick with those shades on Steve
AI generated 😎😉
The worst fade and u will
Make $$
I'd probably tease or parlay Detroit and Denver. Whichever gives better odds. Because I just can't with Indy and Vegas.
SF without Purdy is interesting to look at. I'd think that fading them might make sense, but I really don't know what kind of backup Brandon Allen is.
I love the giants this week. Not nearly as bad as their record indicates. Poor QB and OL play has doomed them but otherwise a solid squad and well coached imo. Their fans love Tommy and the place will be rocking. Jones was constantly paralyzed by indecision. Tommy will let it rip for better or worse. This line should be around a FG.
Giants are my team and they are going to lose so don’t bet it
And the Bucs are just 1-5 SU last six
7 pt Teaser:
Min +3.5
Ari +8
What do you think?
🦦
Public goes 3,,-2 again .. shove it sharps 😂😂😂
FADE THE SHARPS GUYS , FADE THE SHARPS 😂😂😂
Sharps are often wrong