Is Pokemon Investing In PSA 10s Really Better Than PSA 9s?! THE TRUTH!
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- Опубликовано: 30 июн 2024
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Admittedly, this is a bit speculative on my part, but I would say the reason why PSA 10's are generally a better long-term investment is due to scarcity and more room for growth. Once enough 9's are graded and circulating, their prices will likely become more stable, experiencing more modest growth over time. I expect many low-pop PSA 10's to outpace 9's due to the scarcity and opportunity cost. I do think 9's have been undervalued for a long-time, particularly the popular Pokemon, whose PSA 10 equivalents are well beyond the budget of most collectors.
Ya i see where you are coming from but i just don't see it the same. Imagine you didn't own any 10s and had 0 bias for a second. I think 9s are going to continue to outperform because the availability of 10s just simply won't be there. There are so many 10s that are rarely ever on the market and when they are they are for ridiculous prices that most no one will ever pay. I think people will start to favor the 9s because they are more liquid, they can buy more of them and the market price is more stable and easier to find data on. My reasoning is why stocks continuously split like Amazon just did or Tesla did to attract more buyers at lower more affordable per share price. Pokemon cannot split so the next best thing at an affordable price is owning that card as an investment in a 9 instead of a 10 ya no. Just my thoughts. Its all speculation.
@@NostalgiaNomics It's true that I own 10's, but I also own significantly more 9's, so I'm biased towards both if anything. I still think the scarcity and opportunity cost will drive prices on most 10's more drastically than most 9's, though with significantly fewer sales and greater volatility. However, that is the crux of our difference in philosophy, you lean toward demand being more important while I lean toward supply being more important. Obviously, both are important . . . regardless of how things play out, it will be a fun ride and an interesting case study to reflect back on.
@@pokemon_classics O wow! I didn't realize you held a lot of 9s as well. That's cool. Ya great point. I guess i am more bullish on demand carrying products more than supply. I guess i am always on the side of what average people can afford or would spend their money on compared to what the wealthy are spending theirs on and that could be my downfall with a lot of these products and cards in the future. One thing is for sure is that It is going to be fun wild ride watching these things age. Thanks for the input, man. I appreciate it!
This is exactly how I see it. Older, rarer, minter, better all the way. However, sometimes picking up the 9 can definitely make more sense. Where a population is so low on a vintage card and the 9 is say X7-X10 less than the 10. Then the 9 makes makes perfect sense to pick up.
Dude u can buy 6 different 9s or 1 10 I’d rather have more cards more artworks. 10 chaser card about numbers not the card lbs ur willing to pay 6x more for one number above. Y’all stupid fr lmao old collectors laughing at yall
Haha. you did my Q first. Very much appreciate the breakdowns in different sets and outlook of 9's vs tens. Solidified my thoughts on moving forward with singles and playing it by card and not the grade alone.
Ya i felt just answering it in a video would not have done this subject justice. I have another vid coming out tomorrow comparing WOTC Unlimited 10s to 1st edition 9s to see whether the grade or the 1st edition stamp is more sought after. Should help out as well. Thanks for the question!
Another awesome video my friend! Keep em coming 😁!
Thanks a lot man. I appreciate it!
Love this video man, glad you explained your reasons for selecting data points etc. Fair chance in my mind that people buy the aero 9s because they chasing full sets and can't get a full set of holo 10s so go 9s across the board
Thanks a lot man. Ya i agree. I think 9s still have a lot of growth ahead of them because they will remain affordable for the average person a lot longer!
@@NostalgiaNomics absolutely, currently collecting shining legends 9s the average collector right here. Case in point 😅
The biggest thing I like about 9's is that some day they can become 10's potentially. The overlap between the 9 and 10 grade is massive. 10's are maxed out and many aren't any better looking than the 9's I keep.
Ya thats true. Thats also the reason they are even more scarce than they appear is because the pop reports are overinflated with 9s thats people tried to grade up and failed so now 1 single 9 card has become 2, 3, 4+ on the report.
Right I’m seeing a trend with this. 10s are basically glorified 9s that don’t always have the eye appeal as some 9s and I’ve recently got one that has white dots at the top. And it was a random purchase random submissions got a 10
Cool data. Looking fwd to seeing SM and SWSH era data once PSA grading prices normalizes and more people grade their cards
Ya i hear you. gonna be exciting to see how are of this shakes out in the years to come!
Great video, a lot to consider for myself who has some interest in getting those vintage gen 1 and gen 2 pokemon. The PSA 10s I could buy aren't ones I like, but then the PSA 9s in cards I like aren't so bad
I hear you. That is always the dilema. I also am on the side of get the cards you want in the grades you can afford. That way at least you have cards you like and believe in instead of just speculating on a card you dont care about just because its a 10... Just my thoughts...
@@NostalgiaNomics indeed. It feels a bit futile buying a card I had as a kid, graded and so expensive though. I do love the Shining Gyarados though, despite never owning it, it was of course the first shiny pokemon that I, and countless others had
Your analysis is awesome
Hey thanks a lot bro. I appreciate that!
The 10 oligarchs sweating after the exposure
This is very interesting. One thing I will say though is when Pokemon peaked those 10's are ridiculous returns. The market has changed now too so will be interesting to see if the 10's pull away from 9's. Could well happen if more big collectors enter the market. Only needs about 20-50 of them on the planet to make those prices skyrocket for a lot of vintage WoTC 10's.
The other big factor is liquidity. PSA 9's or their price point has higher liquidity than PSA 10's once the PSA 10 slabs hits certain price point. I was at one point holding a PSA 10 crystal nidoking and it took forever to get sold while PSA 9's and 8's were selling much quicker and were more liquid than my 10.
Ya thats a super important part people dont think about. Its especially important when we enter into down markets like this and its a lot harder to move the high dollar cards. You end up with 3 options: hold it, auction it and usually take a huge hit or let it sit and hope and pray someone wants it bad enough to pay the price.
I would love to see you going even deeper and see how the psa 8's performed over the years.
That is a possibility in a future video. Thanks!
I much rather buy 9s for my collection due to the price discount. For example I have almost completed all the first edition holos for fossil in PSA 9s. Whereas if I bought even 1 PSA 10 Dragonite which is like 4-5k I would never get this set done lol.
I hear you and Im right there with you. Especially when a lot of the 9s and 10s could have been the other grade on a different day with a different grader.
One must consider like u mentioned the ratios. For example for every 100 cards graded one has a certain % at receiving a 10. The rate at which a card is graded a 9 far exceeds the possibility of a 10 for vintage sets.
Ya i get that but the counter to that argument is will the 10 price rise too high and price most buyers out so they settle with a 9. No one knows...
Another overlooked aspect is the number of PSA 9 owners who crack their slabs and regrade to chase for that 10. This leads to a bloated pop report for PSA 9s if they get regraded as 9s, so that should also be taken into consideration.
Yes! Very true. There are way less PSA 9s out there than the reports show.
I thought PSA put a special mark on cards they grade so one can't send them in for a re-grade!
The only time you need 10s are for modern. Back in the 90s and 00s we actually used to play with our cards and not immediately sleeve and put them in card savers. The only people saying you need vintage 10s are either individuals who bought these when they were essentially worthless and high net worth investors.
Ya i would agree with that. I think modern 10s will have larger gaps between the 9 and 10 going forward.
Great video, I did not know that 9s had performed better in the past. Do you think this trend will continue moving forward now that 9 prices are pretty high for big hitter cards? There is also much more pop growth on the 9s.
I personally think they will because they will stay within the average person's budget a lot longer. Also, the pop reports will always be overinflated with 9s because of people cracking the slabs, trying to regrade for a 10 but then getting the card back as another 9 which means now that same card has 2 on the pop report and sometimes more like 3, 4 or 5 depending on how many times people crack and regrade the same card.
@@NostalgiaNomics im aware of the regrading possibility, but in your opinion, how often does this really happen?
And could there be a possibility that because 9s are always staying within the more objective collectors budget (someone who just wants a mint card to enjoy without the added extreme rarity) that it may actually cause the 9s to stagnate within that affordable range, while the 10s reach insane prices because the type of people who buy them are super rich and unreasonable anyway?
I collect ex/gold star 9s btw
@@kazunaribenson Ya I get it. It's a possibility but I think a lot of the 9s have a long way to go before they reach those price points where they go stagnate. So ya I agree that is a concern for the long term (over 10 years) but I think there are tons of opportunities on them still in the shorter term (under 10 years). It really has to do with what you're looking to do. If you want to buy and hold until you die then ya maybe 10s can outperform but with me I look for opportunities to buy and hold for a period of time until the product or card reaches a stagnate point and then take my gains and move to another area where I see opportunities for growth. Just depends on your goals thats all.
@@NostalgiaNomics interesting.. I actually had another experienced collector also tell me the same thing you said about 9s being better in the short term but 10s better long.
Im not sure what I’m gonna do with my slabs cause I like them a lot. I buy heavy/unweighable sealed vintage boosters or blisters with the intention of selling in the future though! Id be interested to hear ur thoughts on sealed heavy lights vs psa 9s and 10s from the same set!
@@kazunaribenson I really don't know on that one for sure. I don't track the single pack market as close as the boxes. I usually like to lean on the side of sealed myself because as the value of the cards inside go up it usually raises the value of the packs and also as more product is opened that also raises the scarcity which in turn raises the value of the packs. That's just me though as I am a little biased to sealed product because the supply is less every day whereas with graded cards the pops do nothing but increase every day.
As a collector I mostly buy 9s since I can buy multiple 9s for a price of a 10. I just want my fav cards in near mint condition, but I not gonna cry if they're not 10s, more of a luxury. Maybe if I had much more money to spend I'd think differently
Hey i do the same exact thing so i hear you loud and clear!
Well I would say right now then 10s are a better buy now as you have proven 9s have done better thus are viable to retrace harder.
Thats an interesting way to look at it. Could happen. The 9s have seen a good retracement from their highs along with the 10s already though. Impossible to tell for sure what's going to happen in the near term with them.
Hmm. This one is a bit different than your original views. I like how your talking more about graded cards but buying raw verses graded with potential seems more of the direction I expected. Great Content as always but different from what I would have expected. I appreciate the broader range of views .
Thanks a lot man. Ya I mean if you have the time to search and find raw mint cards, have the expertise to pregrade them from pictures and don't mind taking the risks to send them in and grade them you can always make the most exponential returns that way. I just had this question asked a few times so I wanted to tackle it. Thats all.
@@NostalgiaNomics I appreciate you taking the time to answer questions. Most if all going the extra mile and making a video of it for them . Thank you .
I'm old school nothing but raw cards but always look forward to your new videos HASHTAG PSA 10.5s to the moon and mega rare 16ths
Hey i hear you there. definitely get a lot more bang for your buck without that slab on those cards.
Best 9 vs 10 video I could find throughout the internet, thank you!
Hey thank you. I appreciate that!
Is this trend only with WOTC era sets? How about XY/SM?
Thats a good question. I will possibly do a video on the modern sets as well in the future. Thanks!
🤯
I know right!?
Playing devil's advocate here. For the sake of the argument, I am a PSA 10 collector but have been tracking PSA 9 prices of both vintage and modern for comparison since pre-boom and now. Numbers don't lie when it comes to growth over time since 2017, and it seems like the ratio of growth from just pre-boom (2019/2020) until now would be even better for PSA 9s. However, I think it would be important to factor in the PSA grading prices into this ratio (ie taking the last solds and subtracting the $50 or $100 per card from current, and $10 or under per card from 2017) to get a more accurate representation of growth. I don't think the market has fully realized the drop in PSA grading costs just yet as it has only been a month or so since the $30 tier was even released.
I've been watching a few videos from you and other content creators that deal with the market as a whole (Pokemon, collectibles, crypto, NFT, stocks, etc) and the general consensus is we are in for a downward trend for a bit. I've been noticing quite a few more liquidations of people getting out of the hobby or freeing up funds for real life expenditures such as car repairs. Some are also just liquidating due to wanting to upgrade their collection to get a grail of theirs. Pure speculation on my part and my thinking as a collector, but could it be that people are more willing to part with their PSA 9s therefore introducing more to the market and driving the prices down faster, in order to get PSA 10s as they become available?
Awesome content as always, keen to learn more as I keep watching!
Ya thats a great analysis of the current market we are in. That could definitely be something that happens in the near term future. Thats why they call it speculation right lol.
I guess the flip side of that could be that as more 10s go into permanent collections and either dissappear from the market or the prices rise to ridiculous levels that are unrealistic then people could be pushed back into 9s because that is all that is available or the price is not worth it at whatever the 10 buy it now price is at. Also remember that the 9s pop reports will always be flawed from cracking slabs and regarding trying to hit that 10 only to get the same card back in a 9 and another data point on the psa 9 pop report. So they could be more scarce than people realize ya no.
Again I think you have a good point. Only giving other ideas as to where the market could go and not disagreeing in anyway. Gonna be fun to see how it plays out. Thanks a lot for the breakdown and analysis in your reply.
Say it all the time rather have 4 psa 9s than one psa 10 ppl that only do 10s don’t care about the card or artwork. Just the grade and money lbs
Is this the same philosophy for the 8's too?
Im not 100% sure on that. I dont usually dive into 8s and 7s but its possibly especially as the 9s become more valuable and start to price regular people out of them too.
@@NostalgiaNomics yes but have the 8's already made the same percentages from 2017. I think it would be close Aswell near the same percents
I sold all the tens I had super super overrated especially when you buy one that has white dots on every corner I've always liked 9's way more but im not really a seller I think I bought my psa9 joltion for under 40 $
Ya a 9 and a 10 is so subjective. A lot, not all, but a lot of cards that are mint can grade either a 9 or 10 on any given day depending on the grader.
I think lots of average people could afford most 10s. In my opinion why would you spend thousands on a Pokémon card? It’s fiction/ not real. This franchise grabs your childhood which is why it’s relevant at this time. What about the next generation? Will they see Pokémon the same? Will they hype it up as most do today? I think 10s are risky as long term investment’s. Not all of us are Logan Paul’s drowning in millions therefore could lose thousands on Pokémon. As a collector I rather collect different types of cards and spread my money rather than put all of it in one basket.
haha i know what you mean. Ya i also am on the side of having a large variety to enjoy as opposed to 1 or 2 ultra expensive cards. Less risk that way as well!
1st!
Thanks!!