The Shilling Vs The Dollar: It's A Matter Of Time Before We Go Back- Dr. Alex Kamau
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- Опубликовано: 15 май 2024
- GUEST: Dr. Alex Kamau- Business Consultant
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Why do I feel like this channel is the most organised mature show that we have in Kenya . Everyone here is a top notch. Nikama aki siko Kenya . You guys Mko level ingine . No politics . Keeping it real for us the people. Thank you so much
inaitwa STANDARD media group.
What Ruto govt has done here simply put is they had a fuliza (chinese) loan. Then they went to kcb (Euro bond) to borrow so as to pay off the fuliza(chinese)debt, in the hope that fuliza (chinese) lends you again so that you can repay the your current kcb (euro bond) loan. Its called syndicated debt and when it crushes, it will crush big.
Well said👍
Wow
Chonjo kabisa ,yep
That's more like robbing peter to pay paul.this man😅😅
@fredrickkariukichelsea2584 that why you should not vote along tribal line. All they needed to do is to slim the government and sack thousands of useless public servants while protecting military, police, medical, kenha and Kenya power, and then
Reduce barriers to trade including direct and indirect taxation to zero to encourage direct local and foreign investment in the export processing zone. That's the only way to grow the export capacity and create real jobs for the youth.
The key to FX is EXPORTS.
I love the way he is explaining it in a simple manner.....even those who've not attended economics class can understand
Before going to square ⬛️ one
I love that we live in a country where we have the freedom to speak so openly about our realities.
Tht is your yardstick? BTW, there is no normal country where that doesn't happen.
As if speaking openly has added any value. Nobody listens and they are very arrogant.
@@dukakisomondi8552 just travel across the boarder into Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Somalia, Rwanda, Congo and get amazed at how little room is given to a discussion of the status quo.
have you ever lived in another country that curbs free speech?
That is a right not a privilage
Dr. Kamau should be CS Agricuture,CS Trade,CS anything that can change our status in reviving our economy
What is currently happening in the Kenyan economy,is like a foolish man boasting in a borrowed suit, once the owner takes it back you get back to the usual rags,Ruto should not cheat kenyans that the economy is thriving
It's "thriving" until when doctors are asking for a salary then the tune changes to the economy is not doing well.
Exactly
CBK has not been publishing the FX rates on a daily basis on its website as it used to. This trend began in January 2024. Reasons best known to them.
Buy dollar
Smelling a baaaad rat!!
The volatility from 162 to 127 can only be supported by dumping
Exactly. Otherwise our economy should have grown at the same speed.
This is simply a reversal of the sharp slide from 125 to 162. I think it was driven was driven by speculation
132 now, What's even dumber is the next moron in chief(pardon me, I really hate our politicians) will enforce stupid tax measures that will have us sliding further into debt, and destabilizing. All because the IMF told them don't industrialize and we will give you loans
The best explanation... Just like buying and dumping crypto currency.
Now 132 and climbing
Finally someone speaking some sense.
Dr kamau should be our financial advisor to our government
It also shocks me why we don't have such serious minds in these offices.
We were saying the same about Ndii🤣🤣 There is just something when you get into the system.
Ruto hata advise ya mtu yoyote yy anajua kila kitu
Dr Kamau is a great teacher.
Uncle William is claiming that the economy has grown amd continues to grow faster than Omanyala.
Anadhani hatujui kile enaendelea
Willie amekuwa jama wa jaba base ... kabsaaa😂
Willie amekuwa jama wa jaba base ... kabsaaa😂
very educational and insightful
Thanx CT! We in diaspora really deny ourselves, take up even 2 Jobs to help pur families back home. We actually sacrifice a lot. We don’t have any extras to send, pay the „AFRICAN TAX“ as my kids refer to it. We should be appreciated!!
Yes you should be appreciated BY YOUR families
Black tax
He's Brilliant
A very clear economist explaining it in a very simple way.
Wow!
our currency is always mmanipulated by affluent owners of kenya.
One thing i have learnt. It doesnt matter what happens, you will always see it the way you want. Even when chances are slim
Lol 😂😂 you are always supporting kk failures
The psychology of Kenyan public, strong shilling equals strong economy. What they don't know is that the economy is in ICU and Zakayo is manipulating the shilling to gain political mileage. When the artificial manipulation ends, most likely after 2027 elections, exchange rate will shoot past 200.
We will reach 200 long before 2027.
Conversation full of knowledge ❤....
I am enjoying this conversation, this man explains in a simple formula that I understood everything. I loved it.
Very informative. Thanks Spice FM for educating
I absolutely agree with this guy.
Very informative indeed! Dr Kamau is well versed on matters money. Well worth listening.
Thanks dr.helpful information.
This is a whole economics class. Very clear and plain.
Bring him again tomorrow or soonest.He has made me understand.
This is why i kept my dollars im no expert but i listen to my gut
It' s now at 133
It is called retracement...wait n see it will push to 200
In a few months It is shooting back to 162 plus. Ngoja. The temporary leadership view of the economy is laughable
Regarding the dollars I think it was evident from the word go, even without Forex education one would notice we'll still fall back to the higher rating.
So do you want us to fall??
@@thomasmomanyi3931 unless our government is strategic in fighting corruption, we can manage to maintain a good score and not fall to where we were before.
No one is happy with the falling 😪
@@thomasmomanyi3931fall. From where. Once you've fallen all you need to do is rise or remain there.
This means will go back on our knees again 😢🙆🙆🙆
Excellent explanation
Good information.
The only way to shore a dwindled forex reserve is by putting in place the bearish pennants(focusing on export, taming cost push inflation etc etc)
not by borrowing. The appreciation is shortlife.
sawa jatelo..! Acha dollar ipande saidi ju sisi watu wa kaptengelee tunaenjoy value tunapata through cross currency exchange. Donge?
@@jacksonmorara2904 kabisa ndugu. Shikilia.
Time to buy my Dolla back before it hits 200
Why sell it in the first place
Yesoooo, I am holding on mine since then the shilling gained. I know it will fall.
Kenya is a middle class economy that is why it was given a higher percentage than Ivory cost
The rate might fall back down but we cannot ignore the fact that the strengthening of the shilling has come with its advantages. Money borrowed when the rate was @ 160 means the govt gets to save by paying back when the rate is @130 even if you include the interest
this is only useful if we are repaying our debts now. Are we? Or are some people more interested in trading forex with our taxes
@@b.tedley2586Yes we have shortterm debts that govt has to pay...some we borrowed at 162 now we will pay at sh132
Waiiiiiit ..hold ...hold my cup of tea....did he just say we collect 2T but our budget is 4T .... heeeaaa......
Another reason could be the decrease in the demand for dollars for cross border payments. Another reason we should act as block to remove the dollar as an intermediary. And create a single currency for EAC.
Great insight
I'm worried since this is the same guy who predicted last year that Kenya would default on it's loans in 2024.
Somehow the government procuring the eurobond makes sense on the sudden change of kes / USD rates if you go back in time to around 12th feb when the government procured the bond , then the dollar started doing a dive against the kes.
Very well said and explained.
That increase in diaspora remittance was mainly due to panic of the appreciating kes. Moving forward, you will experience a huge drop in the same remittances unless the $ starts appreciating against the kes.
he has explained it so well that even a kindergarten child will understand
Im saving this video to come back and comment next year
Comment today one week later it is happening
Am discovering this pod 2weeks later and his sentiments are already passing.
Dr Kamau is brilliant. Good show this was.
Wiseman
The same reason it depreciated is the same reason it is appreciating. Pure speculation.
I say this always... anything UNSUSTAINABLE ain't WORTH it.
The government should competitively go into production and encourage those that export be it flowers..coffee.. tea or whatever to compensate or support people who are willing to produce exports....it's the government job to create such environment
Tuna umiya sisi who tuna tuma chapa Home ,we pay too much to buy dollars
Where do you get such doctors
If this was my economics teacher i would not have gotten D-. That Indian teacher failed me
🤣🤣🤣
😂😂😂 ww uliamini mhindi akufunze vile ako na uhasidi/ubinafsi, mhindi hawezi kufunza kitu roho safi, afadhali akufe
Yes true we don’t send from surplus but from sacrificing.. the more the dollar fall the more we can’t send😡.
Allow me to repeat this yet again, same thing i said in Jan 2024.... WSR is like the jamaa in the office who borrows from his workmate opposite his desk 1 K, then end month anaenda next office to borrow another 1 K to pay off his workmate opposite his desk..... The following month he now borrows from another workmate on 1st floor to pay the one nexx to his office.... Si you know those kind of people wanaonba pesa wakilipa in a merigo-round kind of cycle... HII KENYA YETU HAPO NDIPO TUKO.... AND I REPEAT AGAIN... As long as Kenyan govt is not involved in serious international trade, promoting exports intensively and extensively.... DOLLAR LAZINA IPANDE NA IPITE KSH.200 BY AUGUST 2024.... WATCH THIS SPACE....
I said and will say it again. I am hoading my dollars till July
There was zero economic activity to back the recent Fx favorable change
This is good conversation, I will publish my thinking on the reasons for the exchange rate fluctuations. They should have asked him, if our current account balance has increased or decreased? We will be in June in a months time, ask me if the USD will be at 160.
It's easy to talk and give narratives without reference to data.
The current budget deficit was reduced and the next budget deficit will decrease as well. You can't do away with budget deficit financing in your first year but it's a process.
On reducing the government spending, this is so because we are not doing massive Capita infrastructure development. Investment is a factor in economic growth and as such it is necessary. But our revenue can't support any big infrastructure investment. It's either we rely on debt financing or PPPs for development financing
cant get it,
a) He is saying the reason the dollar gained is because Kenyans who were speculating hoarded the dollar expecting to sell them at higher prices, but they have now released them back to the market. This might be true, but again will the same Kenyans after June 24, will hoard their dollars again from market therefore dollar gaining?.
b) He said we borrow from international market to repay the loan which means we will not use our local dollar reserve which are now dropping the dollar price down. So unless find something else to speculate, the will have no reason to hoard again
I have no education in economics but I believe as we attribute the gain of the shilling to dollar hoarders selling hence terming it temporary, we need to appreciate the effect to the shilling during the “hoarding” process which might have made the shilling lose value. And hence the gain is a correction of what happened during the “hoarding” process..
The correction also is temporary because the debt to be repaid which is the reason for hoarding, still exists.
The correction will still be temporary
Very sober conversation
0.53 is Ndu touching the screen like a phone!?!!. Ohhhh my goodness this technology will finish us. 😅😅😅
Kuna watu hapa kwa comment eti wanasema kuna watu wanaona uchungu uchumi ukiwa sawa sababu eti dolla imeanguka mm wa kwanza nataka dolla irudi ilipokua 165 hata ikienda zaidi kwangu raha zaidi
what of the Euro and the Pound
Nop not necessarily ,key to ksh not sliding is taking imports as much as possible ...With near clinker import ban soon coming , record rainfall thinks will not necessarily slide to where they were , atlet not in this decade
One of the best comments. I believe Ruto will continue raising importation taxes for goods we can make in Kenya and only import raw materials that are not available in Kenya...we will also be exporting clinker in large quantities rather than importing...high rainfall will also not allow the dollar to slide. Plus high base lending rates
What goes up must come down! Lol 😏
WachA I keep my Foreign currency ready. Money in the bag now
25:32 Banks aren't intermediaries or "mediators" between savers and borrowers. Commercial Banks in KE(and others in countries with their own currencies) print money(KES or their respective currencies) from "thin air" to extend loans/credit to creditworthy borrowers!
Doubt this? Another angle to look at this is a loan being an asset to a bank. It thus it can not claim deposits by "savers" to be assets which it can lend/extend to "borrowers". These deposits are LIABILITIES to the bank!
What measures should be put in place Daktari to ensure that the shilling does not depreciate again?
The current exchange rate is a blessing for the ordinary mwananchi. Going for Hajj becomes a little cheaper.
Let's also look at the performance of all other currencies worldwide how they're performing against the dollar. Currencies bagged by Gold and those that are not, how are they performing? Zimbabwe has now introduced ZIG currency, and Russian Rubble is struggling, but surprisingly, the following are the strongest currencies in the first quarter of 2024:
1. New Zealand dollar2. Australian dollar3. Singapore dollar4. Brunei dollar5. Libyan dinar6. Canadian dollar7. United States dollar8. Swiss franc9. Euro
10. Cayman Islands dollar11. Gibraltar pound12. Pound sterling13. Jordan dinar14. Omani rial15. Bahrain dinar16. Kuwaiti dinar17. Trading currency pairs
The more you buy dollars the more you weaken your own currency. Instead we should be working to strengthen the shilling.
Buy from where, dolar should be earned by our economic activities
@@benardochieng1160from agriculture during high rains ie, we reduce demand on maize imports and reduce demand on clinker import
The real exchange rates is 1$=5000kshs. Kenya iko debt ya 900 trillion shillings and intrest is 600 trillion shillings in dollars denomination. Kenyans lipa next 2000 years. He who borrows (kenyans) is a slave to the lender.
I thought Kenya operates a hybrid exchange rate system, not a floating one.
This guy is a quak!😂😂 Ati UGX to USD crosses thru KES
Rates buddy rates
Kenya shilling has gained against the dollar but hasn't gained against UGX. So converting UGX to Kshs and then converting Ksh to dollars will earn u more USD.
@@gerishonmwaniki5318 And that by itself should tell you there is an issue, it is a solid plan, but it kind of dispells the myth that our currency is performing at the world stage
Happened
The problem with Kenya is they Have too much black market who are holding the Dollar and central bank of Kenya has no enough Dollars.
Its behavioural finance
Yesterday it was127
Kamati za roho chafu!!!?
I have question, do you call them same 'analyst' when what they predict now doesn't much what they said?
Yes part of being analyst is making mistakes and coming up with hypothesis
No shortcuts in money making
Say positive about your country. The mouth blesses and curses. Learn to call for blessings to our country. Not everything is politics. Vice versa to our families.
Its 132 from 127...
Ura Currency
Kenyans what happened with cash crops we used to export to earn dollars and foreign currencies?ie coffee tea etc then the government leadership has failed terribly and it must resign
Foreign participations in IFB Bond in February...
The world is waiting for Japan officials decision on their u.s Treasury bonds.
Then huyu uncle William utubeba aje sually?
That's my lecturer 😂😂😂
Oh really? Here is a cookie..!!
One of the things he didn't explain very well is the reason why diaspora remittances shot up during the first quarter. It is quite obvious. It had very little to do with inflation going down in places like the US. Inflation did NOT go down. What went down was the RATE at which inflation is increasing. There is a big difference! Prices remain high and are getting even higher. It is just that they are getting higher at a slower pace! The very unpopular current government is coming up hard on elections, and all signs point to a huge loss for them, so they are using rhetoric and gross exaggerations (aka lies) to gain whatever good will from the people that they can. Anyway, remittances to Kenya shot up because the dollar went soooooo much further in Kenya when the rate was 160 to 1! I'm telling you, guys abroad bought real estate in Kenya like you wouldn't believe during the first part of this year! People were working overtime at two or three jobs and going without eating just to send money home to buy stuff while the buying was good! Some guys heard that the rate was expected to go to 200 to 1, and they held out sending money home, and now they are regretting it! I'm saying all of this from personal experience for whatever it's worth.
What if the naivasha car auction started working
Sorry but he means temporary situation and not artificial , big difference.
I am not a "money dr" but the theory being displayed cannot hold water!!!!
Give a counter argument. Not flying statements like this.
@@joshuaouko83 he wont sumbua tu huyu jama na negative energy
65.7% of Kenya Revenue is used in debt payment, just imagine !!!
😂😂😂 Exactly! We still send money only for mkate nusu.. Your guest has given us good news "150 there" that is 🎉🎉🎉
0:48