What the Israel & Iran Strikes Just Revealed
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- Опубликовано: 20 апр 2024
- Israel and Iran directly struck each other on their own territory for the first time in history this week. I think the weapons, tactics and targets each side chose just revealed a lot to us about their respective capabilities and the message each side intended to send to the other.
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written and edited by: Chris Cappy
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So the big question everyone wants to know is what extent of Iran’s offensive capabilities did they use? How much damage did they actually intend to deliver, was this all essentially the equivalent of a warning shot, a limited strike or was it meant to inflict massive damage? I think There is some evidence to support both theories so I’ll present each side to you now with some of my own insights so that you can make up your own dang mind.
First the facts, Iran’s April 13th attack on Israel included 130 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and 170 smaller kamikaze drones or a total of 330 munitions. In military parlance we call that a “strike package” which refers to a coordinated grouping of different military assets deployed to execute a specific strike mission against an enemy target.
The Evidence to support the first theory that this was not Iran's full capabilities, comes from the Iranian officials claims that they gave the United States, Turkey, Jordan and Iraq 72 hours of warning that they would launch this attack. They claim they added a diplomatic tag onto that strike package by essentially telegraphing in advance that they would launch an air attack on Israel. Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq all confirmed that Iran gave them 3 days warning. If we take them at their word and believe that then it’s also likely that one of them passed on that information to the United States under the table. The reason to believe this is because of the US military’s close relationship with all of those countries. However the United States claimed they were given no such warning.
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sources:
understandingwar.org/backgrou...
www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4...
www.timesofisrael.com/in-mess...
www.bbc.com/news/world-middle...
apnews.com/article/iran-israe...
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Correction: Israel claims it was not the embassy in Iran but the building next to it.
Looks like World War III was avoided for a little longer, truly nothing ever happens.
For anyone asking! Here is our Clean up crew t shirt: taskandpurpose.myspreadshop.com/clean+up+crew-A6627aef00e281208c79d8938?productType=210&sellable=bNEyayNXN7HmEoJrLb05-210-7&appearance=2
"truly nothing ever happens" :)
Hi there! Great channel! How do I reach anybody from your team from Kyiv?
@@vladimirvereschakov2931 send me an email good sir capelluto@taskandpurpose.com
By the way Kherson dam, the one that explodod is still there on google maps, is it good or bad i don't know, the image there dates 2024
Joe Biden wants to be FDR 2.0. He needs WWIII and the 'Greater Depression'. He already has Obama's 3rd term and is working on Obama's 4th term. Joe Biden is already mentally handicapped to be similar to FDR's physical handicap.
"It looks like we just dodged WW3" - Famous last words of a fallout universe (not)..
As an Israeli, watching the news reporters when the missile were on their way here felt like fallout 4 intro…
We didnt dodge some more billions to the middle east ... Meanwhile america is burning and collapsing...
*35:35** huge mistake!!!! Thos missiles that exploded in the desert were purposely untouched, cause when the Israeli radar knows that will explode in a deserted area, won't spend a missile on that one*
WW1:
Germany + Austria + Turks vs Russia + France + Briton + USA
WW2:
Germany + Japan + Italy vs Russia + France + Briton + USA + China
WW3:
....... Accidental nuke launch maybe?
Iran ... Did I get you?
Izra You know we play the same game?
Iran ... Not Fair! You pay for the Date
That false sense of security you get when you realize your enemy is mostly incompetent... It's a fatal mistake because they can always fix themselves at any moment.
Yes, we know, but we also don't want to fight on too many fronts at the same time.
With the Russian aggressors that is virtually impossible @brentiers
You do know that all the info they gave you is lies, right? You do know that Iran's actual missiles hit their targets easily and rendered israeli defences obsolete? Oh, you don't know....
@@user-zt4bq8uw7k Let's compare Russian and USA aggression since 1990's when the USSR broke up.
I'll wait for your informed reply....
SMDH.
ok, no, systemic issues can't be just suddenly fixed, but i agree with the general point of not becoming overly confident.
someone said in the comments in one of the replies that the two countries presidents should dual it out with swords in a ring 1v1
My money would be on Bibi. He's got the reach and he's about 15 years younger ;)
in this case usa would be fuc"?t
I mean they should definitely do something like this. Who knows maybe they would eventually agree on shuffleboard or css 1v1
Bibi is ex special ops.. so.. my money is on him
No matter the outcome, society would be the winner
Just saw you on Piers Morgan's show. You were the only sane voice on the panel. Love seeing how far you've come from your early videos. It's great to see you reaching new heights, while keeping your feet on the ground.
Hasn't he? I've been watching him since he was brand new... guys the man now!
They grow up so fast lol
Thanks 🙏 I tried to stick to the facts as much as possible
@@Taskandpurpose Yeah, and we all love the channel for that reason. But you offer analysis and opinon.
I've alwaus appreciated how you are always clear when you're stating a fact, and back it up with your sources. And when you are offering additional analysis or citing someone else's that adds context, historical, economic,, diplomatic, and potential future considerations. And most importantly, when you move from facts and evidence based analysis, into personal opinion, you make that just as clear.
The topics you cover, like national military spending, international conflicts, US-China relations. war, and anything involving Israel or Ukraine, seem to attract content creators who have no scruples citing absurd unverified claims as facts, and disguising their opinions, or opinions of those they agree with, as facts. While at the same time, when someone holds an opinion they disagree with, they claim they aren't just holding a belief different than their own, they're lying, and acting in bad faith.
Always great knowing when I put on one of your videos, it's going to clear, concise, educational, and I won't have to screen for propaganda and lies. Keep up the great work.
It’s very useful to hear this feedback . It helps to know what aspects people appreciate and find valuable. Thank you for your thoughts 🙏 I can understand why creators do that , there’s a lot of money in that kind of content but it doesn’t feel like the right thing in the long run
@@Taskandpurpose no doubt it's the easy and fast way to getting attention online. But speaking for myself, if I begin to recognize someone isn't just opinionated, or even biased on a particular topic, but is instead a bad faith propagandist for their cause, they've lost me. Usually permanently. Especially if they prove themselves unwilling to honestly discuss news, history and related topics that are counter to their agenda. The fact tyuh lol here are few sources I consider less reputable, than those with a clear bias, who deny they have any bias at all. Let alone if they also attribute any opinion that runs counter to theirs as born of corruption, hate, ignorance or some combination thereof. Even if their opinions align with my own on the topic, if their bias is too strong, I lose all confidence that what they're telling me is accurate enough for me let it become a part of my thinking. Whenever your personal opinion actually comes up in a video, you've always been really respectful of those who hold different views and so far as I know; never claimed or assumed they are all acting in bad faith.
For example, the video you did on militarization of police departments and 1033 transfers of surplus and retiring military equipment to the police departments. And observed that how people perceived the situation where officers were granted military capabilities to conduct a job that is civilian in nature, tends to align with their support of law and order and the police officers themselves. Then half joking said therefore you're all for giving police Abrams tanks. Then acknowledged that there are legitimate considerations, and a history of unforeseen consequences involving these programs reasons for people had for not sharing yours.
Just that little acknowledgment that there are differing opinions and interpretations, while expressing your own opinion is all it takes.
Looks like they technically slapped each other in the face, threw down their gloves and challenged each other to a duel.
Not really. Both sides know there is someone that will step in every time to prevent anything big from happening. Think of the two annoying drunk guys at a bar that talk a lot but don't have to worry about really having to fight because that one friend or the bouncers will be there to hold them back.
Why don't the two president fight it out in the ring, new thing would saves thousands of lives, you two have the problem fight, it out, gain much money world wide.$$$$$. must see TV.
@@LackofFaithify thats a good analogy
@@LackofFaithify this might be true of iran since they probably know they can't take on israel but israel has a history of attacking their enemies preemptively even if the odds seems against them.
Lol. Iran legally defended itself from an attack from Israel. Israel got the message when some of those low quality missiles touched Israel… Israel also fired a package attack… but… the attack was an utter failure simply because Israel didn’t touch Iran.
Iran lost in both altercations, and the fact is Iran’s third package - no need to send an attack, just a notice that Iran can do something to Israel and Israel can’t do anything to Iran.
They wanted to send a message ... couldn't they have just used e-mail?
😂😂😂 too slow
us presidents delete those emails without reading them. unfortunately.
LMFAO
@@SquidofCubesTo be fair, he can't read anymore.
(Appropriate joke about I have several million dollars I want to share with you...) I rather miss those spammers.
It only now occurred to me; Iran pretty much did the geopolitical equivalent of "You are a good friend to me, so don't come to school tomorrow".
And then they got mad when that friend came to school took the gun and helped arrest them 😂😂😂
@@OneOkRockSamurai nah, they got everyone to talk and try to call him down so he won't actually his mad victi
This alarmism that every regional skirmish is going to escalate into ww3 is so tiring honestly
Definitely. It merely pushes off the inevitable. There are serious grievances and a tit for tat dance is not fooling anyone.
A regional skirmish is what started every World War to date.
Austria declaring war on Serbia.
Germany and Russia invading Poland.
@@DRYeisleysCreations WW2 started when Germany and Russia invaded Poland in 1939 - or maybe it started in 1938 when Britain and France agreed to let Germany have part of Czechoslovakia - or maybe it started in 1937 when Japan invaded China and the world only responded with sanctions. Failing to tamp out a regional conflict encourages other regional conflicts. If you are a regional power dreaming of invading your neighbor, now is a pretty good time to make your move. Especially if there is any way to get your hands on nuclear weapons.
I suggest watching the news coming out of Serbia and Azerbaijan and the military build-ups going on in eastern Europe and Japan. If they thought the U.S. was going to be able to handle the situation they wouldn't be arming themselves to the teeth. The weakness of the United States is encouraging authoritarians worldwide. Bold action by the United States could calm everything back down - but what are the odds of bold military action by the United States in the near future? Nill. And *that* means the odds of a larger conflict are quite high. It won't be this year and it won't be next year. But give it five years and most people will look back and be amazed at how naive the Americans were in 2024.
That’s how you know WW3 is the only war those with a capacity of fighting are actually afraid to embrace, all they do is naming it. For most of them WW3 already happened, it was just a war of media.
You're not getting the big picture, or maybe any picture at all. There are _already_ two wars going on among three and probably four nuclear-armed nations. The Ukraine war and the Middle East war are not very far apart, and _many_ nations have threatened to jump in against Israel. The most important is Turkey with about the largest tank army in the world, capable military services all around, and with a large population and large economy. Geographically that would link the two wars all by itself.
it feels like we dodge WW3 every week nowadays
aint no body want to deal with the ufo's the usa has. ww3 aint gonn ahappen ever. 🤣
Cold War kids...First time?
WW3 is not going to start with a formal declaration.
@@messagesystem333 lol...
Because this is WW3. It just doesn't look like Hollywood thought it would.
Almost certain that both sides learned valuable lessons from this exchange. A dry run for future conflicts
You missed the point where the two air bases hit by Iran are meant to be impenetrable, they are the most defended sites in the world.
and you missed the point that a F35 with a nuclear payload could drop ANYWHERE in Iran and the first thing Iran would notice is a new sun, not the F35 that dropped it.
@@bkeckk That's psychopathic or brainless
@@bkeckkWhat don't you go fight Iran then since they are so "incompetent" oh wait you would be put 6 feet under trying something like that.
Dimona is.
@@bkeckk Ditto from Iran. What an @ssshole remark
Dude was in a such a hurry he didn't get out of his bedroom yet before making this video.
I was actually waiting for this video. Why do you think he was in such a hurry?
420
@@NoamTheGOAT50 Im gonna go with 420 as well
I’m on vacation in Florida right now , had to record from here not the studio …which is ironically ….in my bedroom at home
@@Taskandpurpose Gotcha =)
Iran waited 12 days to attack because they were still observing the holy month of Ramadan at the time. Experts predicted the attack would happen within 24 - 48 hours following Eid and it did.
🤣🤣
This attack was also definitely telegraphed. Iran showed great restraint.
Pls Israel stop genociding the Palestinians and chill tf out.
Why the laughs? It makes sense.
Also they gave Israel a warning to prepare for their crimes
منطقیه احتمالا همینطور بوده
The fact that neither of them engaged in the fight says something
It was a demonstration of capabilities, it showed that Israel’s military capabilities far exceed Irans.
@@ZootyZoFoAre you sure about that?
@@Warriorn977 Yes there is no question and the ISW & Ornix both agree and have written articles about it. Some Muslims like to pretend this was all orchestrated to make themselves feel better about the most powerful Islamic military in the Middle East turning out to be nothing but a joke. Iran has an Air Force of a handful of long obsolete 50 year old aircraft, a rubber boat navy and a poorly trained & motivated conscript army and now the only thing they had going for them, their missile & drone program, turned out to be just as big of a joke at the rest of their military.
The last time Iran took on Israel or the west directly was in 1988 during Operation Praying Mantis when the US sank half of their navy in four hours, decades latter they humiliated themselves in front of the world twice in one week.
@@ZootyZoFo LOL, no, it shows that Israel is very lucky to have the U.S and the U.K as allies and shows that a sanctioned Islamic terrorist regime is capable of causing damage to Israel. If Israel wasn't so protected and spoiled by foreign aid, things would be much different right now in the Middle East.
@@203cyrus No Hajji you can’t accept the fact that the poorly trained 3rd world Islamic militaries are nothing but a joke and only last hours or days when they go against a professional western or Israeli - the 96 hour ground war that defeated Iraq, the 6-day War when Israel defeated 6 Arab armies (Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi, Kuwait and Algeria) in only 6 days. There is the War of Attrition in 1967 when Israel defeated Jordan, Syria and the PLO. Israel didn’t just defeat Egypt & Syria in only ten days in the Yom Kipper war they slaughtered them and gained the Golan Heights and expanded the borders of Israel. These are just the major wars, Israel has defeated one Hajji militia terrorist group after another on dozens of occasions. Nothing has changed, Iran humiliated itself in front on the world twice in one week proving their gross incompetence, they are simply no match for the IDF and never will be. America will always be there for Israel and that will never change. Hard to believe that only 5,000 Jews can take on and defeat every Arab & Sunni army in the Middle East, combined 😂.
Great information! Thank you for all the hard work. God bless!
I agree with the assessment. That being said, when two nations are implacable enemies, this is not over regardless as to whether messages were sent and received by both sides.
Egyptians and hebrews don't eat together in the bible. I think Netanyahu is the beast
The problem is that Iran can't be sure the other Muslim nations nearby would be willing to fight Israel anymore if things escalated.
If Israel and Iran were to reach full scale war and Iran didn't get any help from its powerful neighbours then Iran would get dunked on.
I'm assuming of course that Israel had US support (not necessarily direct military support but intel, arms and money).
Although if it was just Iran and Israel than Israel should still smack them.
Basically, Iran's leaders want to remain its leaders and probably don't want to escalate it further than they have.
I think it's not so much that the two nations are implacable enemies. It's more that the present Iranian regime has repeatedly declared its aim to wipe Israel off the map. Israel, for its part, has repeatedly communicated to the Iranian people their good will and desire to live in peace. Many Iranians, in fact, love and support Israel. So the possibility for peaceful relations exists, only requiring regime change in Iran.
@@truthseeker9454 I have to agree with you. Iran has a malignant government consumed by hate.
This demonstrated the vastly superior Israeli military compared to Irans ragtag military and will give Iran second thoughts about their capabilities. Iran is ripe for revolution, their brutal Islamic government won’t be in power in another decade.
wow youve come a very long way in only 2 years.greatwork on these videos.dint stop your equipment videos unless views arent worth it i guess.Plenty of those channels
Again excellent video.
"According to U.S official"😆😆😆
And the BBC reports! Very good unbiased sources this channel uses…
Pretty sure the cost was to the US taxpayer, not Israel
I’m happy to support freedom every time
first of all israeli pays their own taxes too to fund their military spending
second thing israel and the entire world contributes to your country's economy by using your currency to trade internationally your currency gains a lot of purchasing power thus decreasing the prices and it also allows you to borrow money and pay less into it so your country is indebted to all countries in the world as we contributes to your economy
third thing so shut the f up 😂
Another tax expert here get invold.
first of all israeli pays their own taxes too to fund their military spending
second thing israel and the entire world contributes to your country's economy by using your currency to trade internationally your currency gains a lot of purchasing power thus decreasing the prices and it also allows you to borrow money and pay less into it so your country is indebted to all countries in the world as we contributes to your economy
third thing so shut the f up 😂
@@dirtfarmer7472 that way of thinking is bankrupting our nation. Youre the minority as of now days, even amongst republicans
Great reporting, Cappy. Thank you.
You may not realize it, but you're doing the type of journalism we all want. Thank you!
Your sources are funny. the BBC?US officials?
It was an interesting watch. I have a few points I'd like to add:
1. Different air defense systems are designed for specific threats-systems meant for ballistic missiles, for example, won't typically engage drones.
2. When it comes to stockpiles, if Iran used a tenth of their arsenal at a time, they could do so about ten times.
3. The scale and cost of this attack suggest it's more than mere posturing. The potential for damage was significant, possibly more than anticipated.
4. Learning from such attacks is limited. Iran might gauge the effectiveness of their missile penetration, but the defending countries likely gained valuable insights into improving their air defenses.
I think Iran only intended to damage Israeli assets involved in the embassy. It was a limited retaliation, but I think they wanted to inflict real damage. They expected the drones to get shot down and deplete the Iron Dome so their ballistic missiles could inflict real damage. They were prepared for the majority of their munitions to be shot down, but I imagine they weren’t happy to see just how few of their missiles got through.
Well, with all the Jordanian territory to work with it gives too much time to Israel to act. That in conjunction with all American and Jordanian jets working together, those drones would never get close to the Israeli soil, so their impact in overwhelming the iron dome was greatly diminished
One of our generals was in Israel the day before Iran's strike. I believe the Iranians back-channeled the US and gave advance notice, too.
Since the replies are pretty similar, I'll try to tackle them in one go.
I can't say much about the drones. The only thing that I do have to say, and it was one of my points, that the suggestion that the drones were meant to help overwhelm the air defenses, sounds dubious to me. Why they were used, or how is or hard it is to shoot them down, I can't really tell. From the results, though, I can make a reasonable assumption that they weren't much of a threat.
Regarding the alleged warning, when it comes to ballistic missiles, it's pretty irrelevant, except for, perhaps getting air crews ready. Regardless, they are detected upon launch, and take some time to reach their target. They are, however, notoriously difficult to shoot down. The position that they didn't mean to cause much damage, doesn't make much sense to me. The Iranians couldn't have known how reliable or unreliable the air defense would be. What I do know, is that they're very expensive, and there aren't a ton of them, so lobbing more than 100 of them to send a message that 10 could have delivered, again, doesn't make much sense to me.
Finally, Iron Dome is one layer of the air defense. It's for smaller, dumb targets. It gets the most attention, as the rockets and mortars that are used by Hamas, are within the domain of the Iron Dome. Ballistic Missiles, however, are not.
Moving forward, Russia also made a commitment to Iran
Great channel, so much information. Really appreciate the effort.
Been following you for a while. Then saw you on piers. You’re Highly intelligent and hope you keep up the great content
Scott Ritter has the best analysis on Iran attack on Israel.
Scott makes task look like an elementary school student trying to make sense of this conflict. Tasks bias almost as bad as Preston "Mr. wrong at everything" Stewart
You just proved that Scott Ritter is part of the Russian propaganda machine.
@@nolga3569agreed. Scott is a seasoned intelligence export with decades of on the ground experience.
Scott can be wrong too but at least he is going to tell us what the other side of the story is so yeah it is worth checking out his version of this too.
Ritter is probably going to be closer to the truth than this video to be honest.
You could ask, you could say, you could believe isn't really making a compelling story from this channel. Scott Ritter at least uses information and sources. All the targets hit by Iran were involved in the embassy bombing and all those targets were hit. Despite the warnings and the whole alliance aware of what was coming Iran still hit its target.
A landed missile doesn't mean a failed interception, one of the main methods of Israeli interception methods is not wasting ammunition on missiles calculated to land in open fields
That’s a good point , but these 9 ballistic missiles in question all hit the Israeli airfields . I don’t think they were purposefully let through . I could of course be wrong but it’s not like they hit empty desert miles short of the target like half of them did
Absolutely❤ poor analysis by host
hahah a projectile loaded with explosives crashed at mach2 and this guy says it landed. How dumb are the chosen people?
@@Taskandpurpose why not be more neutral?
IDF and the US said irans missiles are inaccurate - They hit their targets
IDF said they stopped 99% - Thats a lie (when h fired 5000 they didnt even intercept 50%)
IDF said iron dome, arrow, thaad etc are impenetrable - 30 million penetrated the most expensive air defence in the world.
Also dont ommit that most of the slow flying drones used to keep the air force busy did their job. What if they were also targeting the jets with sams next time? good luck shooting down drones when there is a S400 missile flying towards you.
They said so
love your content mate
Thanks good sir
It is among the best.
This channel and ward carroll are my top 2 war channels. Sandboxx is good too.
Whats going on with shipping covers the water side if any non military ship hits or gets hit by anything.
Probably my 4 favorite channels of 2023 and so far in 2024 as well.
I LOVE the decor!! I also think the lighting fixtures and furniture are excellent 😂❤.
Iran: we're just enriching uranium because we love science!
also Iran: digging 90m deep caves into mountains to enrich this uranium for the love of science!
And Americans did their research on Japan. Very peaceful 😂
None of your fucking business really.
@@iskandergaba Actually it is - Iran is the enemy of the West, so anything they do to further hostilities is our business. Get fucked
xD I like how you have to be so careful not to piss off anyone in an objective strategic breakdown of the events. It was a tall order and you did really good man. Sad that it has to be done though.
The exchange ratio has to take into account the amount of damage that the missiles would do if they were allowed to hit their targets
Yup. Thats exactly why the “more people died in Gaza” is not a valid argument for “disproportionate” force. It’s just that Israel has an iron dome that has a 98% success rate
It also needs to take into account that all the money that Iran has spent on their entire arsenal has been totally wasted because it doesn't work.
Why? Iran was well aware that at least the large majority of their missiles would get intercepted and they executed their attack with this intention.
@@JohnDoe-jp4em Such a brilliant tactic, defending it is like saying they are more mentally challenged than they are incompetent. Incompetence can be fixed if they try really hard, and are given the chance.
@@JohnDoe-jp4em The argument is that Iran was copying Russian similar attacks. Iran believed that they could overwhelm Israeli missile defense and cause damage. Maybe Iran miscalculated how involved other countries would be in Israel's defense.
I guess one benefit of everything becoming so expensive is no one is willing to fire their weapons lol
Such valuable reporting, ty
Great job cap!
Very good analysis . . . keep on the good work friend
The iranians don't want war and american doesn't want war so end of story it's all theatre and pantomime.. . Geo politics ...😂😂😂
The only intelligent comment in this entire comment section...
Yes, and the crowd cried WW3. Which isn't true. I keep telling my friends that fear is what keeps people in power. Wars tip that balance, which is why this isn't WW3.
Not so sure about that. This administration would love a war.
After the election.
Geopolitical Realpolitik
😂😂😂😂
I don't know why i've been holding off on subscribing for so long. This is legit journalism man.
Thanks!
It’s Kabuki Theater:
Kimonos everywhere;
none are open.
lol nice
This is like maximum weeb. Touch grass man.
@@warmpi I dont think weebs even know about kabuki
@@warmpi Kabuki has nothing to do with animation.
Best comment here.
Awesome video! Thanks for sharing!❤
Excellent and Outstanding Analysis!!!
thanks bot
Hey Mr.PeacePipe, Love your Vids😊
Ecclesiastes 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but the heart of the fool to the left.
The Ballistic missiles that "got through" need to be evaluated by where they landed. If Allied defenses predict that a missile is going to hit open desert it is likely to have been ignored by missile defense operators, that would focus on missiles that pose a serious threat.
The Iranian attack was large enough to be defined and have multiple video angles of the strikes landing. The intended targets were hit whereas Israel's counter was too ambiguous to even argue by video evidence that it landed anywhere let alone targetted location.
@@harisabram4767 LOL, keep lying to yourself.
@@harisabram4767 actually ballistic missiles landed at two air bases.
@@_Coffee4Closersif he is lying wach the video from ABC. 11 alive you will see how those missile goes true it's the only two western channel show it
COPE harder !
i think you're missing a piece of the puzzle here, and that is how nation vs nation sabre rattling works. This attack from Iran was designed to let Israel know that their actions against Iran will not go unanswered, but by hitting back in proportion or lower you signal that although they'll stand up for themselves, they don't intend to escalate.
You missed the message that Iran is showing an ability to deliver strategic weapons to the Sate of Israel. Now are any capable of delivering a nuclear warhead? Quite possibly.
@@user-ee6xt8gu9l yeah sure, what COULD they do... but what do they want to do? Iran's leadership know a nuke guarantees their own eradication in the immediate response, they drop a nuke and Iran will not exist a week later. So back to the actual missed point, the game of national sabre rattling, which is all this actually was
Interesting dissection of the incident. Thank you.
You brought up a good point of the 3000 missles but only 200 launchers.
Some of those 200 would be kept hidden as reserves to be kept in being for future strikes in case of retalitory stirkes against the launchers used in the initial attacks.
200 of 3000 is a lot. Why would anyone expect Iran to respond to an attack with an all out strike?
Also, Iran fired older missiles and drones.
150 missiles is a limited strike lol.
It was done as a warning iran doesn't want a war
@@andrewreynolds912 they do tho...........................................................
Were you hoping they would empty their entire arsenal into Israel or something 🤨
@@andrewreynolds912 they’re already in a war using Hamas…
@@Nathan-vt1jzif they’re in the war then ig the US is in a war with Russia
Another guy also called Chris here.🙃Thanks Cappy for trying to clean up this thick fog of war for us somewhat! The three dark patches on that Copernicus image could be debunked as very small Cumulus humilis cloud shadows. Those clouds are so light colored that they are almost invisible on that vibrant, light brown/golden terrain. Billowing smoke fresh after an attack would also cast a longer shadow, pointing in the direction of each smoke cloud while fully reaching their origin. These are just light and dark patches, each pair separated by the same distance and angle (wind speed, direction, sat's/sun's positiion POV). The BBC's approach of obtaining SAR imaging looks way more telling.
Excellent analysis
The pictures you show of the "failed launches" are separated boosters. The Iranians fired three stage ballistic missiles, the parts you showed are meant to separate to allow the warhead to reach its target. I don't know how you reached the "failed launches" conclusion from a picture of a separated booster.
cause he has no idea what hes talking about and is paid to spread propaganda.
What model of Iranian missile is three-stage?
Also, if you are going to talk about something in particular in the video a time stamp would be helpful in seeing if you have a clue.
Most clueless idiot comment of the day goes to OP
@@gandydancer9710 Iran used mostly "Emad" and "Kheybar Shekan" missile which have a separating guided warhead. The independent estimation is that at least 40% of those hit their tagets.
Typical US propaganda
Good analysis. One point I'd like to add is Iran used some of her older ballistic missiles in order to force Israel's hand and make her expend some of her expensive arrow 3 missiles. They also got info on the radar and air defense locations too. All in all, this was a humbling experience for both Iran and Israel. Iran learned how hard it is to hit Israel accurately without Hezbollah in Lebanon and how well their air defense system works. Israel learned it can't just bomb someone and get away with it. They underestimated Iran's response after the consulate bombing and had to get help from 8 countries to block the retaliation.
Yes. If Iran didn't shoot those missiles, they would have been decommissioned or fired in training within just a few years. All of their newer stuff would have gotten through.
Imagine telling the widow of the Iranian general, that the Ayatollah and the Iranian state choose to use old munitions and slow drones to avenge her husband.
Israel learned it cant just bomb someone and get away with it? it used very minimal firepower, and it got through to Iran's major military bases near it's nuclear facilities, did significant damage, all while Iran was on high alert and anticipating a hit, if israel wanted to do significant damage, it could've very easily done so which is why iran decided to downplay the damage instead of going through with the threats they've been doing for so long.
Iran opted to continue with information war as they've been doing for a decade now. but it is a good thing that they choose this over continuing the war because that is not the way forward for the betterment of the world in general.
@@kronuskksIsrael was given advanced warning but still needed 5 other countries to help shoot down slowest drones. Meanwhile Israel defense was unable to shoot down ballistic misdiles into F35 airbase
@@BencerCourt123
Israel needed other countries because the army power in the north and south Israel by being busy. If they wouldn't fight on all fronts, they wouldn't need them
Chris you were great on Piers Morgan! Good job! Keep it up!!!
The 'ol one high, slow smowbal with another one hot and low' strategy alive and well, i see.
The target that was attacked in Iran was a Russian S-300 air defence radar, this proved that the most advanced anti-missile system available in Iran can't stop even a single Israeli missile for self defence.
And now the Iranians have only one remaining S-300 site active...
It's amazing what unlimited US tax money can buy.
according to reports the IAF missiles have new technology that avoids radar signature. They blindsided Iran and the attack was a complete surprise despite expecting it. Does not bode well for them and hence now trying to down play it and lying low. There is very interesting report in todays Israel Hayom on US "microwave" missile. Strange timing and maybe deliberate leak. It would not surprise me if it was not a joint venture with Israel. Their laser Iron Beam just received a few extra billion from US and is bound to be deployed soon.
That may change the Iranian. Hezbollah calculations !
Russia didn't have much luck selling s400s when everyone was satisfied with the s300s they already had, including Ukraine
Yous source of info?
Yeah that is the victory message Israel is spinning. Which is good. That is the goal behind all this. Both governments can tell their citizens how they pwned the othet side.
But myself, I try to see past the veil. YMMV
This was the best analysis regarding this that I've seen, and I've watched tons about this from many different sources. This is pretty much what I always thought about this too. Know way to know for sure what's under the surface, but you covered all points that I could think of. Awesome job!
Found a report that confirmed your bias yay lol
so you like a low iq analysis to support your low iq bias?
Alex Hollings from "Sandbox News" calls it kinetic diplomacy which sums it up pretty well.
low percentage in Ukraine recently is there, because they run out of missiles. No conclusions can be taken here for Iranian case
the conclusion is that iran could deplete israeli air defense with multiple salvos then do some serious damage with follow up strikes, not to mention the cheap cost of iranian missiles vs israeli air defence
Correction: Ukraine hasn't run out. But they are rationing hard, in order to not run out.
Your point is valid though.
And Ukraine is much lager. So harder to defend from these kind of attacks. Even if they had sufficient ammo, and a lot more systems then they do.
I highly doubt that Iran expected the same percentages as in Ukraine. That seems like an average infantryman take.
@@Mani-tg4kqYou think Israel could not defend from all of that they have for many years while the offensive side is much stronger on Israel side with more complex modern tech that Itan could not deffend from so let's think of that for a second.
@@Mani-tg4kqyour conclusion. Not the conclusion.
Your conclusion also seems to think israel would just sit there taking the abuse.
Do you know of israel to just sit there taking military abuse from its neighbors?
Your cost calculations only take an accounting of a one sided attack. Its also missing how israel launched 3 missiles into the heart of iran with impunity, not so far from irans nuclear facilities, proving them viable targets.
How easy is enriching uranium in an active missile range? How do truckloads of material and personell get in and out? What are the costs of losing all those surface facilities? How much does a missile defense program cost?
Dont break yourself on the math, ill give you a hint, its not good. They're going to need to stop funding rebellions if they want to catch up with humanity.
@@Mani-tg4kqIran would most likely be wiped off the earth before they could deplete Israel's defence. You guys all think that the other side will just sit and take abuse, this ain't chess my boy. Both sides can attack simultaneously and with Israel's interception rate being higher and Iran's interception rate being close to zero, Iran will be hit in many crucial places so that they could not launch most of their missiles before Iran could overwhelm the Israel's defence. It doesn't matter how many missiles you have, it's just dead weight if you can't fire them.
So Iran is running the show now in the Middle East.
They run the darker terrorist sides of the ME. Saudi Arabia is who runs the lighter legal sides of the ME.
Running the show? Nah. They're just not in the USA's pockets.
Iran founded Hezbollah in the 80s...
This shits been going on for a while now kid
@@GreysDen Iran received $150B from the Obama administration. I guess that money already ran out. 🤪
@@GreysDenthey are in russias pockets
Very good review based on what we know, thank u
Official narratives are the most fake of all narratives despite looking the most reliable and trustworthy!
This whole thing is starting to feel like the boardgame "Battleship".
Task & Purpose always delivering an thorough and objective free analysis. Love the content, please keep it up, the internet needs you!
Ukraine is 25 times bigger than Israel so it is 25 times harder to defend it.
fedpost
@@ianjohnston7469 100% this guy is propaganda machine, its satire at this point.
People keep throwing around both "embassy" and "consulate" with regard to Israel's strike. They are not the same thing. On top of which, some high level reports say it was an adjacent building, or part of a "diplomatic compound". I would love to see some clarification of this critical aspect.
Seriously no one is mentioning this. You can see 2:32 the actual building where the ambassador was is intact
This man got all the visuals
You’re the man Cappy
Iran sent a strongly worded letter, and Israel responded with an "lol stfu".
Israel got embarrassed. $1B and 2 airbases lost.
@@Ferociousplayz_11sir they are still in use the bombs have hit a runway which was taken care of and part of a plane's wing which was fix.
@@Ferociousplayz_11i think you sould look into it more .
@@Adam-wg2rf how much is has-bruh paying you these days?
@@Ferociousplayz_11 The airbases were and still are functional..lol
excellent breakdown. Love this channel
Thanks
Very interesting thank you
Undeniable Irán telegraphed their attack so as to make their point harshly without enraging Israelis too much, Israel's retaliation also extremely limited so as to not let the Iranians go unanswered but so that striking back was hardly worth it. Both respect each other (fear wise).
Agreed
I’ve seen a lot of conflicting reports on how much the strike package cost the Iranians and how much the interceptors cost the Israelis.
Bloomberg claimed that the interceptors rockets and jets used 1 billion to 1.5 billion to shoot everything down. And Bloomberg also estimated that these missiles likely cost Iran somewhere between 10-30 million, not 200 million like you stated. This is a HUGE economic toll for Israel to take any time Iran wants to lob missiles at them
But the US was quick in handing Israel 14 billion dollars after the Iranian strike, so I guess that 1 billion feels like nothing for Israel.
No worries, the US will just send them more money and materiel. When the biggest and most well funded military power in human history is a close ally, they just give you things. They certainly aren't paying back any of the aid we just sent them.
sure but lets face it...its not Israel really footing the bill for any of those intercepts...without the collective west, Israel is not viable as a sovereign nation.
Congress golems would sell the Washington monument if that's what it took to provide aid to Israel.
Now translate that into percentages of GDP. The Iranian attack costs an arm and a leg compared to Israel's attack. It's the Iranian people that are paying for it though. Not the Ayatollah, IRGC or the Mullah's.
My question is without US,UK & France helping Israel to intercept those flying drones, cruise missiles & ballistic missiles what will be the result?
The fact that those countries DID help should give you a nice preview of what WILL occur if this situation escalates.
Your Iran wanting maximum damage makes no sense
Israeli hit their target, a s300 radar installation undetected. How is iran receiving that messege?
Is there any evidence of that claim?
@@lumekp *trust me bro 😭😂
@@lumekp There are satellite photos, before and after, that show where the s300 radar was damaged, if you google "iran s300" youll get some results.
There is satalite fotage@@pervaiziqbal9828
Lies and propaganda, I'm from Asfahan noting happened in our city or any other cities in Iran .
Even the pictures used are fake
One pictures is from Gaza 2 years ago and the other 4 pictures from airbasr show no explosion or damage 😂
yours is the most comprehensive, and least biased of all news channels I have come across. Please keep upt the great work. Greetings from Germany
I love how you left out the part where Israel attacked a foreign countries Embassy which is a war crime but don't bother with that right
He's pro isrealiii, unbiast my assss.
If he is unbiased than you are genderless clown lol
@@jasonruggles4622 It wasn't an embassy.
Thanks I don’t claim to be unbiased , I try to be objective ! I try to present the different relevant theories . The real journalists on the ground who are in harms way deserve all the credit
Hey just seen you in pierce proud of you big homie
Great summary and overview. Just to note, however, that "telegraphing" attacks is normal. States often set deadlines and issue ultimatums about impending attacks. One reason is to legitimize attacks and decrease the diplomatic costs, and another is to compel an adversary to accept terms before an attack is launched.
Bro looks like an NPC in his thumbnails 😂
‘Purely peaceful purposes’ so reminds me of the movie ‘The dictator’ 😂
Good analysis. You give two different reasons why Iran responded the way they did. I would offer that they may have been attempting both at the same time while also waiting for the conclusion of Ramadan (as others have mentioned). If there attack has been successful they could have denied that intent on the world stage by pointing to the fact that they warned stakeholders before hand.
Iran also destroyed an intelligence gathering base in the Golan Heights.
Take the win.😂
Fake news....
@@Ben663.”fake news….” Buddy just because the news burns you at heart doesn’t mean it’s not real. 🤣🤣 go ask your rabbi he’ll tell you all about it. 😂
Sources?
@Srfs777 I will ignore your childish comments for now. And answer you for your lack of understanding.Iran has not destroyed any base in the north. You are talking about an attack carried out by Hezbollah in an abandoned outpost. The attack was carried out by an anti-tank Kornet missile. A communication antenna was damaged. The outpost is not normally manned. No one was present there . Is this the glorified attack you describe, I don't think so.
The mere fact that Iran is being conciliatory, and not issuing more blustering threats, shows that this did not go how they expected.
How do you think they expected it to go?
@@chocolatecosmos1424 they knew lots would get shot down but I'm personally certain they thought they would deal some serious damage.
Basically in my opinion their thought process was this 'yes, you have your fancy planes and air defence systems but we can still do some serious damage if we want to, so don't push it!'.
Yet, they did very little damage with essentially their most powerful attack then Israel just flew over dropping a handful of bombs and did more damage.
I think their thought process afterwards was 'wow... we are basically powerless against them, better not keep pushing'.
That's speculation, of course it is.
lol they are not looking to escalate the situation. It’s the Israel that wants to drag the U.S into Iran war.
@@retsaMinnavoiG Significant damage was dispensed.
@@retsaMinnavoiG We have yet to see any pics of damage yo that part your making up in your head. the iranian media was at the base and everything looked normal, they were working on missiles. Did the isreali media visit the 3 bases? nope so Israel is hiding the damage and iran is not. We didn't even see a smoke cloud at the Iranian base.
Fun fact: Iran's Imad/Emad ballistic missiles are 10 years old, liquid fueled, and not categorized as 'hypersonic' by Iran's Sepah. Iran truly used their old stockpiles. Look up "عماد موشک" on youtube and look at the date of the official video. If Iran had used 5 Fattah's, 5 would have hugged the ground in Israel.
is it just me or you are getting the vibe that he is defending Israel after all those bloodshed.
Exactly
"... war is a racket ..." Marine Corp General Smedly Butler 🤔
Though air defenses indeed helped prevent war, it may actually made the war more catastrophic and chaotic. Israel relied on iron dome for years and prevented a full scale war in Gaza. But on October 7, it blew up on its face.
1. IMO Oct 7th attack had nothing to do with air defense. More like lapse in Israeli intel and how Hamas managed to exploit/overcome Israeli border security.
2. Without good air defense, Hamas and Hezbollah could rain terror and destruction on Israeli cities, thus forcing Israel to engage them in protracted land warfare.
Imagine decade long Gaza war, with millions of casualties, kinda like Syrian civil war, and that would be many times more catastrophic.
Great comment. It had become routine to launch large scale missile volleys without consequence, using the excuse, 'well, nobody got hurt', and shifting the criticism from the attacker to the defender
@@50shanks Bulshit.
@@ihl0700677525 The point is that because of this air defenses, israel allowed the gaza strip and hamas to become the monster it was on October 7. In other words Israel let hamas build itself for years inside the strip, while avoiding degrading its military capabilities in the idea of “we can defend and intercept its assaults so it’s fine”. Of course that’s true, unfortunately, until it’s not. And when it’s not, it’s painful.
Yeah, The plus 400 IDF casualties and the fucking ridiculous out of the box big brain paraglider attack was unprecedented. IDF had the capabilities to counter it but complancency kills..
just imagine reprisals on reprisals on reprisals, jeepers
Agree that Iranians have taken lessons from Ukraina/Russia, one significant difference; the targets in Israel Nevatim(do not remember the two others) Nevatim is the best defended air base on planet earth and they absorbed 5 hits.
Yes, the Iranian missiles caused damage---to the missiles sent to intercept them, which cost more than the intercepted missiles.
I wonder what the Iranian interception rate would be, and how much economic lost actually hitting targets would net. Sadly, it implies lives and livelihoods getting lost so I don't really want to know the answer, but your comment brought this question up to my mind.
@@raizan5946 probably 10% success Rate for Iran lmfao. Nah idk I'm joking but I'm not joking 😂😂😂
@@ralphpierre9122 I'm also guessing somewhere in the ball park of 10-30%... Funningly enough they would count missiles that were not going to hit anything like a desert area as a success on their part, unlike Cappy that apparently also counted failure to intercept the Iranian missiles that landed even if they didn't hit any target in Israel soil.
As far as I understood Israel fired 3 missiles and 1 hit a radar without details on the other two which probably also hit something. Not even the need to overwhelm their air response system while they had their military deployed.
@@raizan5946 To add to your comment. The Iron Dome does not intercept rocket that are not hitting populated areas. Going camping in the wild is more dangerous than being in a big city right now lol.
@@gdrop6623 Yeah, going camping on stolen lands is definitely hazardous to Zionist mfos' health
Are u kidding me? you circled the clouds shadows bro
lmao 11:27
LOL
Uhhhhhhh
great insight, but one important detail missing - the building in Damaskus hit at april 1st was not the iranian embassy itself, but a building adjacent to it. Killing 7 top IRGC commanders with one strike suggests, this building was more a islamist terror commando base rather then an embassy.
Saying Iran only have 3000 blastinc missile 😂
Imagine the data they got from the weapon systems that they were going against Iran is not stupid they have been doing this a long time they are learning all the time as we should
Nah they're pretty stupid. They believe in a magical sky man who promises you 72 virgins if you blow yourself up in a big enough crowd of civilians. And this was taught to them by a man with a 9 year old wife.
Iran is absolutely stupid.
Based off how many fell short of their target, they need better technology. Everyone is learning all the time. Next attack might need 3x the munitions, requiring 1,000+ objects in flight...
Iran needs a lot more launchers and 2x the missiles so they dont run out...
Imagine the data the U.S. is getting from all this. We're the ones with the best sensors in the area and the hardware to log it all, parse the data, analyze it in depth through simulation after simulation, and create then next method to deal with whatever problem is identified.
We're over there with sensors so good that they can see every bird leaving a tree branch, yet realizing its a bird and not identifying it, so it can tell you when any drones are launched. Were to the point this is civilian tech, there are drone defense systems for civilian use that can see the birds too.
Iran should stick to proxy warfare. It just had a warning shot fired @ it not far from its nuclear facilities, and it could do nothing about it. It doesnt even know who it was that did it. OVER THEIR OWN SOIL...
@@reaglebeaglier source? iran never received the s300 and why sued russia lol
@@brandonhoffman4712 lebanon has 150k iranian missiles, so does venezuela and rio, so imagine how many iran has lol iran was just mocking us and allies with ancient missiles that were collecting dust lol
you can't say Israel and Ukraine has the same anti air defense . sure they share some systems but Israel might have the best air defense in the world at the moment and if you look at footage of the ballistic missiles hitting the base you can see they were boosted in their terminal phase meaning those were the newer ones. they only fired a couple and those are the ones that made it through that must worry Israel.
Exactly... this was more a _'penetration test'_ by Iran
Exactly, I'm getting tired of people saying 99%, and I'm like dude you got brainwashed by the Media. It is clear that Iran hit the targets that they wanted to hit and also achieved the crucial information and data about how the Israeli defense system works plus the capability of US, UK, Jordan and France combined to intercept drones and missiles.
Goes to show that the common thought of hypersonic missiles can’t be intercepted is just wrong. That used to be the go to thing some people would say. That the missiles couldn’t be intercepted because of how fast they were, but in reality when you know their coming it’s not hard to calculate their trajectory. I know not all of those missles were hypersonic, but I would also say that of the 9 that hit were not the only ones that were launched.
That is because the missiles that were used by Iran were balistic missile, whose trajectory is easily predictible. The missile that allegedly can't be intercepted are hypersonic cruise missiles and glide vehicle, wich can change significantly their trajectory during their flight. At the moment, I don't think that Iran has the capability to create such missile in any foreseeable future.
Damn dude you are stacking up the Subscribers, then you will be driving a sweet rig, own a nice home all done on YT🎉🎉🎉
He already has those things, haha. He's a army veteran. He had a home and a nice car way before RUclips.
thank you. an israeli, i have been waiting for your video about the subject, for a better overview on the subject and on our own response
Am yisrael Chai!
God bless you. Israel has much support in the usa. Joe biden is very unpopular, so dont let that clown make you think he represents the citizens!
🔻
ITSNOTRAEL-sorry
You had a response? Really? When, where? Is there any proof of it? We don't have Israel admit it, we have only US saying there was a response through their "free" media. No satellite photos - nothing - indicates a strike.
You said "US and Israel aren't lying" 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣