It is very difficult for an unknown to win Best Actress. If Saoirse Ronan is a double nominee, it will be her 6th nod - at only 30. She is beloved in Hollywood. She can be this year's Julianne Moore, Jessica Chastain - with the industry.
Well it's impossible for anyone to win Best Actress, since that category does not exist at the Oscars! Sorry, sure I'm nitpicking but people calling it "Best Actor" and "Best Actress" instead of "Best Lead Actor" and "Best Lead Actress" always annoys the hell out of me. It makes it sound like there's an all-encompassing category for the best male or female performances, like at the Cannes festival, but there is not, or as whoever wins Best Lead Actress is deemed to be better than whoever wins Best Supporting Actress. I needed to have this rant at some point. Now as to your actual point - newcomers have been known to win Best Lead Actress Oscar: Vivien Leigh (Gone with the Wind) Marlee Matlin (Children of the Lesssr God) Hillary Swank (Boys Don't Cry) Brie Larson (Room) Vivien Leigh may be the best comparison since she blew people away in a movie that was very highly praised and beloved. People seem to be feeling that way about her and Anora, even though it's obviously not a blockbuster like GWTW.
@@BC-fx2yt My complaint is smart and obvious. It's stupid to say "Best Actor" when there is no such category at the Oscars. The reason to say "Lead" is very obvious: because THAT'S WHAT THE CATEGORY IS! Calling it "Best Actor" and "Best Actress" implies that it's meant to be the overall best performance by an actor or actress. It is not. The Cannes festival actually has such categories, which is why it has no "supporting actor/actress" category. Or it implies that you think lead performances are automatically better than the supporting performances, which is also stupid.
Re: who the Oscar campaign for The Apprentice will focus on. This is from the Deadline interview with James Shani from Rich Spirit, the film's new financiers: DEADLINE: Will The Apprentice have an Oscar campaign? How many categories might it compete in? SHANI: Yes, [Briarcliff CEO] Tom Ortenberg and I are building out the Oscar campaign now. We feel strongly about multiple categories including Ali’s direction, as well as Jeremy and Sebastian’s performances. We are exploring awards possibilities in many craft categories as well.
Great chat & debate guys!!! 2025 could be very interesting race to the Oscars. I haven’t seen all the films yet but I’m going off reviews I’ve seen. My picks so far are… BEST ACTOR 1. Adrien Brody 2. Ralph Fiennes 3. Colman Domingo 4. Sebastian Stan 5. Timothee Chalamet BEST ACTRESS 1. Mickey Madison 2. Saorise Ronan 3. Demi Moore 4. Karla Sofía Gascón 5. Angelina Jolie BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Guy Pearce 2. Kieran Culkin 3. Clarence Maclin 4. Stanley Tucci 5. Austin Butler BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Felicity Jones 2. Zoe Saldana 3. Danielle Deadwyler 4. Saorise Ronan 5. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor
Brit here, i had a quiz at my university the other day and there was literally a question about the dogs and cats thing, so we're definitely gonna be vouching for The Apprentice. Also, for the people who have seen A Different Man, they could see it as honoring both performances.
I found the acting to be the highlight of A Different Man but can not see a world where any MAJOR bodies go out for these performance. Smaller bodies / regional groups could give some love to both Stan + Pearson and makeup as well ! - D
@fantasyfilmball absolutely same here! i thought it was a fantastic film all around, if a24 weren't so busy i'd say they could've run a campaign for Pearson because he was fantastic in it, being that effortlessly likeable in a film is an underpraised skill.
I don't believe A Real Pain is as strong as some believe it is. I see it as a lone screenplay contender. I also believe that Culkin's Oscar hype is largely inflated by his role in Succession, and we often see Emmy winners struggle in their attempted transition to Oscars. Same could be said for Jeremy Strong, but the topicality of that film makes him feel a bit stronger in my opinion.
I completely agree, I think A Real Pain could be top five even, and people like it (and Culkin’s performance, he’s in it to win it imo) too much for it (and him) to NOT be a player
@@latissimusdomsiI recently put a real pain in my picture 10 after life of chuck was confirmed for next year. I feel like searchlight can easily pivot to this film if complete unknown falters. And I’ve just always had the feeling that that film could just come out too late in the game. How many voters will have seen ACU before voting for the GG and CC closes vs how many will have seen ARP by then? I think Culkin will be a very strong contender and will get in but I still think this race is between Pearce and Maclin.
@@fantasyfilmball I would add that Bryan Cranston was nominated for an Oscar for playing Dalton Trumbo not long after Breaking Bad ended - and he played a real person who was a very different from Walter White. It is similar with Jeremy Strong. On the other hand, while I haven't seen the movie, Kieran Culkin is said to be basically playing "Roman Roy without the wealth" or "middle class Roman".
Speaking of Nyad, all Netflix movies but a select few get in which is why I have Lyonne in my Supporting Actress 5 over Ronan in Blitz. Lyonne has the career narrative and the performance to boot to get in IMHO especially with Netflix backing. In fact, I think Ronan is also vulnerable in Lead and I'm choosing between her, Amy Adams and probably Fernanda Torres in the fifth spot. I'm surprised Matt is super high on Jones but Deadwyler is above her atm I agree there's 1 Anora boy who makes it in but I'm leaning more towards Eydelshteyn since he's the 2nd most important character
Lyonne will be submitted as supporting, alongside Carrie and Elizabeth Im sure lyonne will bag some critics circle wins But having three supporting actresses from the same movie, it will split votes and end up with a snub Netflix last year’s supporting actresses players were Moore and foster This year, Netflix has 5
In terms of the Anora boys, Eydelshteyn has a flashier role, but disappears from the movie pretty quickly. Almost everyone I talked to about the movie at TIFF brought up how much they loved Borisov, and how he's truly the *heart* of the movie. Definitely had a handful of conversations where they said Eydelshteyn was their favorite supporting actor, but I still heard more Borisov. Would love to see a world where we get a double nomination for Borisov and Eydelshteyn. But that feels like a reach. - M
Best Actor - Timothee Chalamet, Adrien Brody, Ralph Fiennes, Daniel Craig... I think the 5th slot will be a surprise with Gabriel LaBelle for Saturday Night. I think Colman Domingo gets snubbed. There's always someone who should have got in but didn't and Colman is a fantastic actor who will have plenty more nominations. He also just had one for Rustin, so I think they might snub him this time. Sing Sing isn't haven't the best rollout and might not even make it into Best Picture at this point.
Sing Sing has its very passionate riders, that's all the movie needs to get into best picture. Industry people also have seen it and A24 will give it a push in the spring. Colman will definitely get in. Craig is much weaker right now, Queer is a much more polarizing and weirder movie than Sing Sing, and it's not like audiences or critics are rallying behind it.
@@alejandromangieri1495 Fair point. I think Daniel Craig is liked by audiences and the industry and has the career nomination thing going for him though, while Domingo was just recently nominated already. But if he doesn't get in then I think Colman would take his place. Some are saying Joaquin Phoenix or Paul Mescal, I just don't think either of them will get in. My gut says LaBelle will be the surprise nomination, though.
@@PowerDiva I think Labelle could win comedy at the globes, idk if he’ll make it to the oscars bc SN seems to be more of an ensemble piece. I think Colman is safe because he’s been getting raves all year long and if the performance is considered better than Rustin I don’t see why they would deny it
After seeing Queer, I really can't see Craig happening at all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but the movie itself is just so *weird* and alienating, and I don't see his performance as being undeniable enough to rise above that. (I am biased though, as I didn't like the performance or the movie at all) - M
I think Culkin will likely nominated, but I really can't see him winning. People who have seen A Real Pain are saying his role is basically Roman Roy without the wealth. Are they really going to give him an Oscar for playing more or less the same role again?
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva personally I’d like to see Pearce win, but yes they probably would give him the Oscar if it’s that good because technically it isn’t the same performance
@@theprime6439 Do you know any examples of an actor being popular for a role on TV and getting awards for it and then getting an Oscar for a role that is very similar? I can only think of the opposite examples. Art Carney infamously won an Oscar for Harry and Tonto, and I haven't seen it but it's said it helped him that it was completely different than his character in The Honeymooners, which he was popular for. Mary Tyler Moore was nominated and was one of the favorites for Ordinary People, where she played a drastically different character than her popular character in The Mary Tyler Moore Show. Bryan Cranston was nominated not long after Breaking Bad ended for playing Dalton Trumbo, who was a real person and a very different role than Walter White.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva personally I don’t think stuff like that matters because they’re separate, plus Culkin is on a huge high right now and one of the most loved actors out there. Sure it could play a part but I honestly personally can’t see him not being nominated
Madison is unknown and in A DRAMEDY. Matlin was in a drama and had history narrative, Larson didnt had competition and was in A TEAR JERKER, Lawrence was already nominated and HAD HUNGER GAMES the same year with Harvey behind and weak competition. Diane Keaton may be the best comparison but she was already established actress(Woody Allen, and had Godfather films) Looking for mr. Goodbar the same year, Madison doesnt have that. VERY IMPORTANT FACT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
Why is Jennifer Lawrence even mentioned there? She was not a newcomer by any means when she won. Surely better comparisons would be Vivien Leigh's and Hillary Swank's first Oscars.
Comparing Ronan to Resse in Wild is tupid 1 2014 was a weak year and the only competition outside of top 5 were aniston and Adams in failed panned Oscar bait, this year is different 2 WIld was a passion project DRAMATIC COMEBACK for Reese which is why the buzz was SO STRONG, Outrun is just another teenager has alcoholo/drug problems performance from Ronan 3 Ronan is respected BUT is not AN Oscar winner Reese Americas sweetheart 4 Dern and Witherspoon campaigned their asses off for nominations and the film was a contender in more than one category while the Outrun is only actress or bust the only similarity is that both are based or real life people and their memoirs how they got their lives back in control
That's genuinely very impressive. I never expected it when I saw it at TIFF. Dylan had a feeling about Foster when he saw it at VAFF, but I spent months telling him he was crazy (but I was the crazy one the whole time). I think I even took Bening completely out of my top 10 after the movie premiered. All credits to you for believing in the Nyad wave. - M
@@fantasyfilmball After seeing Nyad for the third time, I was thinking" How Annette Benning wont get nominated with that performance" and 3 days later she was nominated for Oscar. people judged their performances incorrectly. Actors look for character with characters developments, emotional ups and downs, feeling, secondary feelings like regret, they want to see if the character changes during the film because these elements shows your acting range. This is way Benning and Foster were nominated. Believe it or not Nyad had all of these. I guess TIFF audience should have paid attention properly instead of laughing at these great actress and the movie.
I don't think Samuel L. Jackson will come anywhere near the top 5. The buzz for him has completely died down since people have seen The Piano Lesson, since his role is miniscule and with little to do and he's said to be overshadowed by his co-stars.
Why are you sleeping on JEan Baptiste? She clearly has the best reviews, her film may get a screenplay nom too and since Gascon and Madison are in comedy category drama Globe is between her and Jolie. If she wins the globe the second black actress narrative could be undeniable especially since she is breaking the mold of not playing a maid or a victim or a slave.
Hard Truths is distributed by Bleecker Street, one of the weakest campaigners in the game. And the film has good but not outstanding reception. I liked it a lot, but many others I spoke to at TIFF were very cold. Also, it's almost certainly going to be considered a comedy by the Golden Globes, so she's up against Madison and Gascón there (if she even gets a nomination) - M
@@fantasyfilmball i remember the same story about Roadside pictures for Zellweger and a24 for Larson, every Studio can break through. Also the film has 87 Metascore so it's not weak and even the ones who are cold on it say that's its one of the performances of the year.
It is very difficult for an unknown to win Best Actress. If Saoirse Ronan is a double nominee, it will be her 6th nod - at only 30. She is beloved in Hollywood. She can be this year's Julianne Moore, Jessica Chastain - with the industry.
Well it's impossible for anyone to win Best Actress, since that category does not exist at the Oscars!
Sorry, sure I'm nitpicking but people calling it "Best Actor" and "Best Actress" instead of "Best Lead Actor" and "Best Lead Actress" always annoys the hell out of me. It makes it sound like there's an all-encompassing category for the best male or female performances, like at the Cannes festival, but there is not, or as whoever wins Best Lead Actress is deemed to be better than whoever wins Best Supporting Actress.
I needed to have this rant at some point.
Now as to your actual point - newcomers have been known to win Best Lead Actress Oscar:
Vivien Leigh (Gone with the Wind)
Marlee Matlin (Children of the Lesssr God)
Hillary Swank (Boys Don't Cry)
Brie Larson (Room)
Vivien Leigh may be the best comparison since she blew people away in a movie that was very highly praised and beloved. People seem to be feeling that way about her and Anora, even though it's obviously not a blockbuster like GWTW.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvvaYour complaint is stupid and odd. There’s no reason to say ‘lead’.
@@BC-fx2yt My complaint is smart and obvious. It's stupid to say "Best Actor" when there is no such category at the Oscars. The reason to say "Lead" is very obvious: because THAT'S WHAT THE CATEGORY IS!
Calling it "Best Actor" and "Best Actress" implies that it's meant to be the overall best performance by an actor or actress. It is not. The Cannes festival actually has such categories, which is why it has no "supporting actor/actress" category. Or it implies that you think lead performances are automatically better than the supporting performances, which is also stupid.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva Everybody knows what is being referred to when someone says ‘Best Actress’ so it doesn’t matter.
Re: who the Oscar campaign for The Apprentice will focus on. This is from the Deadline interview with James Shani from Rich Spirit, the film's new financiers:
DEADLINE: Will The Apprentice have an Oscar campaign? How many categories might it compete in?
SHANI: Yes, [Briarcliff CEO] Tom Ortenberg and I are building out the Oscar campaign now. We feel strongly about multiple categories including Ali’s direction, as well as Jeremy and Sebastian’s performances. We are exploring awards possibilities in many craft categories as well.
Great chat & debate guys!!! 2025 could be very interesting race to the Oscars. I haven’t seen all the films yet but I’m going off reviews I’ve seen.
My picks so far are…
BEST ACTOR
1. Adrien Brody
2. Ralph Fiennes
3. Colman Domingo
4. Sebastian Stan
5. Timothee Chalamet
BEST ACTRESS
1. Mickey Madison
2. Saorise Ronan
3. Demi Moore
4. Karla Sofía Gascón
5. Angelina Jolie
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Guy Pearce
2. Kieran Culkin
3. Clarence Maclin
4. Stanley Tucci
5. Austin Butler
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Felicity Jones
2. Zoe Saldana
3. Danielle Deadwyler
4. Saorise Ronan
5. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor
Brit here, i had a quiz at my university the other day and there was literally a question about the dogs and cats thing, so we're definitely gonna be vouching for The Apprentice. Also, for the people who have seen A Different Man, they could see it as honoring both performances.
I found the acting to be the highlight of A Different Man but can not see a world where any MAJOR bodies go out for these performance. Smaller bodies / regional groups could give some love to both Stan + Pearson and makeup as well ! - D
@fantasyfilmball absolutely same here! i thought it was a fantastic film all around, if a24 weren't so busy i'd say they could've run a campaign for Pearson because he was fantastic in it, being that effortlessly likeable in a film is an underpraised skill.
I genuinely can't think of any reason not to have Kieran Culkin in Supporting Actor at this point.
Agreed. ARP seems like a sleeper pick in general, I think a lot of nominations would follow if it's able to secure a its place in Original Screenplay
I don't believe A Real Pain is as strong as some believe it is. I see it as a lone screenplay contender. I also believe that Culkin's Oscar hype is largely inflated by his role in Succession, and we often see Emmy winners struggle in their attempted transition to Oscars. Same could be said for Jeremy Strong, but the topicality of that film makes him feel a bit stronger in my opinion.
I completely agree, I think A Real Pain could be top five even, and people like it (and Culkin’s performance, he’s in it to win it imo) too much for it (and him) to NOT be a player
@@latissimusdomsiI recently put a real pain in my picture 10 after life of chuck was confirmed for next year. I feel like searchlight can easily pivot to this film if complete unknown falters. And I’ve just always had the feeling that that film could just come out too late in the game. How many voters will have seen ACU before voting for the GG and CC closes vs how many will have seen ARP by then? I think Culkin will be a very strong contender and will get in but I still think this race is between Pearce and Maclin.
@@fantasyfilmball I would add that Bryan Cranston was nominated for an Oscar for playing Dalton Trumbo not long after Breaking Bad ended - and he played a real person who was a very different from Walter White. It is similar with Jeremy Strong. On the other hand, while I haven't seen the movie, Kieran Culkin is said to be basically playing "Roman Roy without the wealth" or "middle class Roman".
Speaking of Nyad, all Netflix movies but a select few get in which is why I have Lyonne in my Supporting Actress 5 over Ronan in Blitz. Lyonne has the career narrative and the performance to boot to get in IMHO especially with Netflix backing.
In fact, I think Ronan is also vulnerable in Lead and I'm choosing between her, Amy Adams and probably Fernanda Torres in the fifth spot.
I'm surprised Matt is super high on Jones but Deadwyler is above her atm
I agree there's 1 Anora boy who makes it in but I'm leaning more towards Eydelshteyn since he's the 2nd most important character
Lyonne will be submitted as supporting, alongside Carrie and Elizabeth
Im sure lyonne will bag some critics circle wins
But having three supporting actresses from the same movie, it will split votes and end up with a snub
Netflix last year’s supporting actresses players were Moore and foster
This year, Netflix has 5
In terms of the Anora boys, Eydelshteyn has a flashier role, but disappears from the movie pretty quickly. Almost everyone I talked to about the movie at TIFF brought up how much they loved Borisov, and how he's truly the *heart* of the movie. Definitely had a handful of conversations where they said Eydelshteyn was their favorite supporting actor, but I still heard more Borisov.
Would love to see a world where we get a double nomination for Borisov and Eydelshteyn. But that feels like a reach. - M
Best Actor - Timothee Chalamet, Adrien Brody, Ralph Fiennes, Daniel Craig... I think the 5th slot will be a surprise with Gabriel LaBelle for Saturday Night.
I think Colman Domingo gets snubbed. There's always someone who should have got in but didn't and Colman is a fantastic actor who will have plenty more nominations. He also just had one for Rustin, so I think they might snub him this time. Sing Sing isn't haven't the best rollout and might not even make it into Best Picture at this point.
Sing Sing has its very passionate riders, that's all the movie needs to get into best picture. Industry people also have seen it and A24 will give it a push in the spring. Colman will definitely get in. Craig is much weaker right now, Queer is a much more polarizing and weirder movie than Sing Sing, and it's not like audiences or critics are rallying behind it.
@@alejandromangieri1495 Fair point. I think Daniel Craig is liked by audiences and the industry and has the career nomination thing going for him though, while Domingo was just recently nominated already. But if he doesn't get in then I think Colman would take his place.
Some are saying Joaquin Phoenix or Paul Mescal, I just don't think either of them will get in. My gut says LaBelle will be the surprise nomination, though.
@@PowerDiva I think Labelle could win comedy at the globes, idk if he’ll make it to the oscars bc SN seems to be more of an ensemble piece. I think Colman is safe because he’s been getting raves all year long and if the performance is considered better than Rustin I don’t see why they would deny it
After seeing Queer, I really can't see Craig happening at all. Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but the movie itself is just so *weird* and alienating, and I don't see his performance as being undeniable enough to rise above that. (I am biased though, as I didn't like the performance or the movie at all) - M
It’s odd you think Sebastian’s performance in The Apprentice will be singled when 80% + of the reviews say Jeremy Strong steals the show.
Winners will be Brody Madison Maclin\Culkin Saldana
Those are my predictions too.
I think Culkin will likely nominated, but I really can't see him winning.
People who have seen A Real Pain are saying his role is basically Roman Roy without the wealth. Are they really going to give him an Oscar for playing more or less the same role again?
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva personally I’d like to see Pearce win, but yes they probably would give him the Oscar if it’s that good because technically it isn’t the same performance
@@theprime6439 Do you know any examples of an actor being popular for a role on TV and getting awards for it and then getting an Oscar for a role that is very similar?
I can only think of the opposite examples.
Art Carney infamously won an Oscar for Harry and Tonto, and I haven't seen it but it's said it helped him that it was completely different than his character in The Honeymooners, which he was popular for. Mary Tyler Moore was nominated and was one of the favorites for Ordinary People, where she played a drastically different character than her popular character in The Mary Tyler Moore Show. Bryan Cranston was nominated not long after Breaking Bad ended for playing Dalton Trumbo, who was a real person and a very different role than Walter White.
@@FrakkinToasterLuvva personally I don’t think stuff like that matters because they’re separate, plus Culkin is on a huge high right now and one of the most loved actors out there. Sure it could play a part but I honestly personally can’t see him not being nominated
Madison is unknown and in A DRAMEDY. Matlin was in a drama and had history narrative, Larson didnt had competition and was in A TEAR JERKER, Lawrence was already nominated and HAD HUNGER GAMES the same year with Harvey behind and weak competition. Diane Keaton may be the best comparison but she was already established actress(Woody Allen, and had Godfather films) Looking for mr. Goodbar the same year, Madison doesnt have that. VERY IMPORTANT FACT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
Why is Jennifer Lawrence even mentioned there? She was not a newcomer by any means when she won.
Surely better comparisons would be Vivien Leigh's and Hillary Swank's first Oscars.
Comparing Ronan to Resse in Wild is tupid
1 2014 was a weak year and the only competition outside of top 5 were aniston and Adams in failed panned Oscar bait, this year is different
2 WIld was a passion project DRAMATIC COMEBACK for Reese which is why the buzz was SO STRONG, Outrun is just another teenager has alcoholo/drug problems performance from Ronan
3 Ronan is respected BUT is not AN Oscar winner Reese Americas sweetheart
4 Dern and Witherspoon campaigned their asses off for nominations and the film was a contender in more than one category while the Outrun is only actress or bust
the only similarity is that both are based or real life people and their memoirs how they got their lives back in control
12:34 excuse me, I had Foster in my predictions ever since Nyad premiered at Telluride.
That's genuinely very impressive. I never expected it when I saw it at TIFF. Dylan had a feeling about Foster when he saw it at VAFF, but I spent months telling him he was crazy (but I was the crazy one the whole time). I think I even took Bening completely out of my top 10 after the movie premiered. All credits to you for believing in the Nyad wave. - M
@@fantasyfilmball After seeing Nyad for the third time, I was thinking" How Annette Benning wont get nominated with that performance" and 3 days later she was nominated for Oscar. people judged their performances incorrectly. Actors look for character with characters developments, emotional ups and downs, feeling, secondary feelings like regret, they want to see if the character changes during the film because these elements shows your acting range. This is way Benning and Foster were nominated. Believe it or not Nyad had all of these. I guess TIFF audience should have paid attention properly instead of laughing at these great actress and the movie.
@oskari7121 same here
@@fantasyfilmball was it that bold? I remember the consensus being that Foster and Bening would contend for noms. Some people were just in denial.
I don't think Samuel L. Jackson will come anywhere near the top 5. The buzz for him has completely died down since people have seen The Piano Lesson, since his role is miniscule and with little to do and he's said to be overshadowed by his co-stars.
100%. He's not coming anywhere near. He's just not doing much in the movie - M
Why are you sleeping on JEan Baptiste? She clearly has the best reviews, her film may get a screenplay nom too and since Gascon and Madison are in comedy category drama Globe is between her and Jolie. If she wins the globe the second black actress narrative could be undeniable especially since she is breaking the mold of not playing a maid or a victim or a slave.
Hard Truths is distributed by Bleecker Street, one of the weakest campaigners in the game. And the film has good but not outstanding reception. I liked it a lot, but many others I spoke to at TIFF were very cold.
Also, it's almost certainly going to be considered a comedy by the Golden Globes, so she's up against Madison and Gascón there (if she even gets a nomination) - M
@@fantasyfilmball i remember the same story about Roadside pictures for Zellweger and a24 for Larson, every Studio can break through. Also the film has 87 Metascore so it's not weak and even the ones who are cold on it say that's its one of the performances of the year.
Fernanda Torres is exttaordinary in "I'm Still Here" and deserv a nomination for best actress