Having just seen Small Things Like These last week, I'd happy put Cillian Murphy in again. Nobody is talking about it because it premiered so early in the year in Berlin and doesn't seem to have done the festival rounds in America. I've not seen any of the films which you've mentioned, but I am looking forward to seeing The Brutalist and Conclave at some point.
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) 2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave) 3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing) 4. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) 5. Paul Mescal ( Gladiator II) I really want Andre Holland to get in for Exhibiting Forgiveness, but I don't know that The Academy will see it. Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice might get ignored too.
I think it's time to let go of "narratives" unless they can be leveraged as a tiebreaker between 2 equally strong and liked performances, assuming no one else nominated can leverage that same narrative (like last year every of the 5 nominees were overdue to some extent so that canceled out and the best performance in the stronger movie prevailed). Performance wise, i have Brody winning right now with Colman Domingo being a potential upset (depending on how A24 campaigns the movie) Other than that I pretty much agree with your picks, though I have Stan at 5th not 6th (my idea is that the high profile individual being portrayed gives the performance attention erasing any disadvantage of having a weaker distributor). Also, the real life counterpart being upset at the movie might encourage people to watch it, as it is not a positive depiction at all. This last slot (and perhaps last 2 pending the reception for a complete unknown) feels like it could be anyone, we could end up with a Paul Mescal Aftersun type of nomination for all we know.
@@ella2117 Yes I agree with your argument for narratives. But every time I try to turn my back on them a win like Brendan Fraser will happen for the Whale and mess everything up! Thanks for the comments!
@ConnorOld true true perhaps not outright dismissing the narratives but maybe in the context of the competition. Fraser's main competitor was a newcomer in a category that likes to reward veterans vs fresh faces (unlike actress). For example I don't see Fraser winning in a year with DDL (Lincoln or TWBB) or Cillian Murphy's Oppenheimer performance. Heck even Boseman's narrative couldn't get past the legendary Anthony Hopkins. It might depend on the rest of the field
I'd be more open to Stan if not for the distributor. I haven't seen the film yet but I personally wasn't totally sold on the casting when it was announced (apparently he kills it tho so I'll take everyone else's word for it). But there is something enticing about an actor playing Trump even if people want Trump to go away (me included). I think I would consider him more if not for the distributor. Craig I think that film just seems a little bit too odd and not in a way that's very inviting. I don't necessarily think being weird is a bad thing it's more so how it's executed, and this doesn't seem executed in an Academy friendly way. I'm excited to see the film and his performance in it but I think there's reason to be skeptical. As you said though, very very weak field. I have John David Washington and that's feeling really shaky even as I type this lol.
@@georgeehret3480 Yeah this 5th slot is very tricky this year. Don't feel confident about any of the options. The way I see it, it is either the notoriety of Trump vs the star power of Craig.
I just am not into Timothee Chalamet nomination after seeing the trailer for A Complete Unknown. Being familiar with Dylan, I just think he doesn't look like, act like, talk or sing like Dylan and I am not going to like the movie because of it. Would rather see a documentary about Dylan or read a book about Dylan. Or maybe an in depth interview of Dylan. Or just listen to his realcmusic.
I want award wealth to be distributed. Same person winning all the awards is BORING.. Really diminish excitement from for the Oscars.. No RDJ or Devine sweep plz 😔😑😑 Film people harming themselves by these sweeps...
Having just seen Small Things Like These last week, I'd happy put Cillian Murphy in again. Nobody is talking about it because it premiered so early in the year in Berlin and doesn't seem to have done the festival rounds in America.
I've not seen any of the films which you've mentioned, but I am looking forward to seeing The Brutalist and Conclave at some point.
1. Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
2. Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)
3. Colman Domingo (Sing Sing)
4. Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
5. Paul Mescal ( Gladiator II)
I really want Andre Holland to get in for Exhibiting Forgiveness, but I don't know that The Academy will see it. Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice might get ignored too.
I think it's time to let go of "narratives" unless they can be leveraged as a tiebreaker between 2 equally strong and liked performances, assuming no one else nominated can leverage that same narrative (like last year every of the 5 nominees were overdue to some extent so that canceled out and the best performance in the stronger movie prevailed).
Performance wise, i have Brody winning right now with Colman Domingo being a potential upset (depending on how A24 campaigns the movie)
Other than that I pretty much agree with your picks, though I have Stan at 5th not 6th (my idea is that the high profile individual being portrayed gives the performance attention erasing any disadvantage of having a weaker distributor). Also, the real life counterpart being upset at the movie might encourage people to watch it, as it is not a positive depiction at all. This last slot (and perhaps last 2 pending the reception for a complete unknown) feels like it could be anyone, we could end up with a Paul Mescal Aftersun type of nomination for all we know.
@@ella2117 Yes I agree with your argument for narratives. But every time I try to turn my back on them a win like Brendan Fraser will happen for the Whale and mess everything up! Thanks for the comments!
@ConnorOld true true perhaps not outright dismissing the narratives but maybe in the context of the competition. Fraser's main competitor was a newcomer in a category that likes to reward veterans vs fresh faces (unlike actress). For example I don't see Fraser winning in a year with DDL (Lincoln or TWBB) or Cillian Murphy's Oppenheimer performance. Heck even Boseman's narrative couldn't get past the legendary Anthony Hopkins. It might depend on the rest of the field
Are you on the Awards Expert app? Would love to follow your predictions on there!
I'd be more open to Stan if not for the distributor. I haven't seen the film yet but I personally wasn't totally sold on the casting when it was announced (apparently he kills it tho so I'll take everyone else's word for it). But there is something enticing about an actor playing Trump even if people want Trump to go away (me included). I think I would consider him more if not for the distributor.
Craig I think that film just seems a little bit too odd and not in a way that's very inviting. I don't necessarily think being weird is a bad thing it's more so how it's executed, and this doesn't seem executed in an Academy friendly way. I'm excited to see the film and his performance in it but I think there's reason to be skeptical. As you said though, very very weak field. I have John David Washington and that's feeling really shaky even as I type this lol.
@@georgeehret3480 Yeah this 5th slot is very tricky this year. Don't feel confident about any of the options. The way I see it, it is either the notoriety of Trump vs the star power of Craig.
Can A24 handle 3 Best Actor nominees?
I just am not into Timothee Chalamet nomination after seeing the trailer for A Complete Unknown. Being familiar with Dylan, I just think he doesn't look like, act like, talk or sing like Dylan and I am not going to like the movie because of it. Would rather see a documentary about Dylan or read a book about Dylan. Or maybe an in depth interview of Dylan. Or just listen to his realcmusic.
I want award wealth to be distributed. Same person winning all the awards is BORING.. Really diminish excitement from for the Oscars.. No RDJ or Devine sweep plz 😔😑😑 Film people harming themselves by these sweeps...
My top 5
Timothée Chalamet
Adrien Brody
Ralph Fiennes
Colman Domingo
Sebastian Stan