In this video, I made a calculation error in the P&L column on the spreadsheet. I accidentally included the stake as part of the P&L column so the overall profit that is shown at the end of the video is higher than what I actually made by a factor of approx 3. However, even after factoring in the error, the strategy was still profitable for me with an ROI of 24.4% on the overall amount staked. Cheers, Liam
I really liked this video, nice and easy to understand, great stuff. I was wondering how many games paid the 2up early in which your back selection went on to draw or lose?
stupid question, do you think this could be improved by doing the following?: when the odds matcher brings up a match with your criteria, only place a bet if the odds are lower than the opposing team? reason i ask, is if the odds are lower than the opposition, they are more likely to win the game, so this could help minimizing losing streaks?
Instead of filtering for games with back odds between 1.5 and 100.0, would it not be better to set the filter to look for games with back odds to between say, 1.5 to 5.0? After all this strategy is basically looking for short priced favourites to back. Really interesting video though, and very well put together.
Hi Liam, would you only place these close to kick off so you are getting true odds at the start of the game, or could you place a week in advance if they show up on the 2up matcher?
Nice vid i'll be giving this a shot, is it worth doing if you don't qualify for 2up's do you think? Also any chance of making some dutching videos in time for Cheltenham?
Hi mate, love the videos. I'm planning on running the Ew dutching strategy for Cheltenham with your spreadsheet but I wanted to practice doing it on a race before but pretty much every race I put into the spreadsheet shows as heavy loss making. When's the best time to find a race that wont be?
@@Harp00nX correct. But the odds you get given for the correct score market reflect the true probability of it occurring. Plus 0-0’s are far more common than 2 ups meaning the probability of a refund is fairly high. If you’re backing a correct score that’s 96%+ match rating and the probability of a 0-0 draw is greater than 4% (25/1) then you have an edge.
Hello! I'm fairly certain it's due to the EV from the bookmakers odds in relation to the exchange. As stated in the video, the odds bookmakers provide are generally lower than what they should be, so using closely matched odds with the exchange means they're actually pricing near in line with the correct odds for that market. I'm personally not a fan of this strategy as it can give a huge variance swing, meaning you could essentially lose 10 or even 20 matches in a row and at £10 each time it can hurt the bankroll if it's not big enough. The other reason I'm not a fan is that if you get on the games with good odds, bookmakers now use data algorithms to detect your positive EV bets and can gub/stake restrict your account if they see you're not losing money, (SkyBet did this to me recently). It's a fantastic video though and given that the expected value is always positive, long term you would see good returns but you have to have the mindset of the long game and not get bogged down when you get a huge downswing. Hope this helps 👍 Also, big thanks to Liam for all the expertise and great content, keep em comin!
My thinking was that the edge lay solely with the fact that the 2up offer was in place with bet365. Granted the prices I was taking with Bet365 were shorter than the prices on the exchange, which in itself would result in a losing strategy, but, the 2up offer was able to override that fact and put the edge on my side over the long term. I didn't feel like 96% was too low of a match and that allowed me to collect lots of samples of data, as the higher the matches the quicker bet365 is to pull them from their site
Value is taking a price that does not reflect the real probability of something happening. For example, you have gathered data and know that a team scores a second half goal 75% of the time. The price that reflects this is 1.33. If the price st the bookie or the exchange is bigger than 1.33 you are taking value.
I have thought the same as Liam before, that if taking odds close to the exchange you may not need to lay as the edge comes from profiting on some games where you actually should lose. If you take exchange prices in an efficient market you should expect to break even over time. But you are winning some matches where you would lose on other bookies. unfortunately bookies don't like value betting and gubbing risk is same as the traditional back and lay 2up strategy.
Hey mate, any chance you could explain what is the best thing to do after you get restricted on the bookies? How do you go about creating a new account without getting instantly restricted again?
My bet365 is gubbed after a few months of hammering the 2ups. I'm also stake restricted but I can still make use of the enhanced prices to squeeze more value. Is the 2up integral to the success or will any 97% match at 1.5 or greater odds work. I'm guessing I can place maybe £25 per day with restrictions? Is enhanced prices a viable option without 2up offer for this to be a successful longish term strategy?
You need the 2UP offer to gain the positive EV otherwise you may as well just back the matches on the Exchange such as Smarkets with 0% commission as the odds will be better.
Would it be better just value betting these. I’d say you’re more likely to get gubbed getting less money down the line. Selections round 103% would I’d have thought get your the more money out of an account.
I think he was referring to the variance, this strategy does provide an advantage as it removes the probability of a team losing after going 2 goals up.
This doesn't make sense... even a 100% match means diddly other than the bookie price is the same as the exchange. True value is when the bookie odds are greater than the implied chance.
I would try to refrain from taking out your winnings for as long as possible, and maybe throw in some activity which is associated with recreational gambling (accas/lucky 15s etc). There is no real way to prevent restrictions on the account forever as sooner or later it will become abundantly clear that the account is long-term profitable.
@@ProfitPineapple Thanks - mine was gubbed but after around 10 months and 4K profit. Coincidentally it got gubbed when I started doing ACCAs with it. Don't suppose there are good Bet365 2UP alternatives?
It would be interesting to see how many games were won by the 2UP offer when a team going two up lost or drew. I say that because if it’s low then this strategy is more about finding winners of matches. If that’s the case then you don’t need multiple 365 accounts you can apply it to any bookie.
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In this video, I made a calculation error in the P&L column on the spreadsheet.
I accidentally included the stake as part of the P&L column so the overall profit that is shown at the end of the video is higher than what I actually made by a factor of approx 3.
However, even after factoring in the error, the strategy was still profitable for me with an ROI of 24.4% on the overall amount staked.
Cheers,
Liam
cheers mate, appreciate the clarification! would you say that multiplying your stake by 3 could get close to that number in the long run?
You need to clarify that in the video, that error can mislead to a greater roi than it actually was to people that don’t read the comments
Thanks for your help. Just about to start match betting and want to get insight into it. Really good explanation you give.👍
I really liked this video, nice and easy to understand, great stuff. I was wondering how many games paid the 2up early in which your back selection went on to draw or lose?
stupid question, do you think this could be improved by doing the following?:
when the odds matcher brings up a match with your criteria, only place a bet if the odds are lower than the opposing team? reason i ask, is if the odds are lower than the opposition, they are more likely to win the game, so this could help minimizing losing streaks?
Instead of filtering for games with back odds between 1.5 and 100.0, would it not be better to set the filter to look for games with back odds to between say, 1.5 to 5.0? After all this strategy is basically looking for short priced favourites to back. Really interesting video though, and very well put together.
Nice video mate but I think your P/L is wrong on your winning bets as you haven't subtracted the original stake
Hi Liam, would you only place these close to kick off so you are getting true odds at the start of the game, or could you place a week in advance if they show up on the 2up matcher?
Good content thanks for that Liam!
Great video. thanks.
Nice vid i'll be giving this a shot, is it worth doing if you don't qualify for 2up's do you think? Also any chance of making some dutching videos in time for Cheltenham?
Hi mate, love the videos. I'm planning on running the Ew dutching strategy for Cheltenham with your spreadsheet but I wanted to practice doing it on a race before but pretty much every race I put into the spreadsheet shows as heavy loss making. When's the best time to find a race that wont be?
Nice vid. Could do something similar using the bore draw offer. Back correct scores at 96%+ and 0-0’s get a refund. Definitely some edge there.
The chances of predicting correct scores are much longer than a simple 1 in 3 chance of picking the match winner though.
@@Harp00nX correct. But the odds you get given for the correct score market reflect the true probability of it occurring. Plus 0-0’s are far more common than 2 ups meaning the probability of a refund is fairly high. If you’re backing a correct score that’s 96%+ match rating and the probability of a 0-0 draw is greater than 4% (25/1) then you have an edge.
@@MichaeITheGreat Never thought of it like that, sticking to 0-0's is probably close to the FTA in the long run I suppose.
How often do min odds of 2.0 appear for 2UP betting strategy? I've changed the search to all times and no games are appearing currently.
when will be a betfair horce pre-race update? how are you doing, etc...
Hey Liam, can you mention why the criteria of 96% ratings represent value bets? Isn't value all about taking prices greater than the bookmaker odds?
Hello! I'm fairly certain it's due to the EV from the bookmakers odds in relation to the exchange. As stated in the video, the odds bookmakers provide are generally lower than what they should be, so using closely matched odds with the exchange means they're actually pricing near in line with the correct odds for that market. I'm personally not a fan of this strategy as it can give a huge variance swing, meaning you could essentially lose 10 or even 20 matches in a row and at £10 each time it can hurt the bankroll if it's not big enough.
The other reason I'm not a fan is that if you get on the games with good odds, bookmakers now use data algorithms to detect your positive EV bets and can gub/stake restrict your account if they see you're not losing money, (SkyBet did this to me recently).
It's a fantastic video though and given that the expected value is always positive, long term you would see good returns but you have to have the mindset of the long game and not get bogged down when you get a huge downswing. Hope this helps 👍
Also, big thanks to Liam for all the expertise and great content, keep em comin!
My thinking was that the edge lay solely with the fact that the 2up offer was in place with bet365.
Granted the prices I was taking with Bet365 were shorter than the prices on the exchange, which in itself would result in a losing strategy, but, the 2up offer was able to override that fact and put the edge on my side over the long term.
I didn't feel like 96% was too low of a match and that allowed me to collect lots of samples of data, as the higher the matches the quicker bet365 is to pull them from their site
Value is taking a price that does not reflect the real probability of something happening. For example, you have gathered data and know that a team scores a second half goal 75% of the time. The price that reflects this is 1.33. If the price st the bookie or the exchange is bigger than 1.33 you are taking value.
I have thought the same as Liam before, that if taking odds close to the exchange you may not need to lay as the edge comes from profiting on some games where you actually should lose. If you take exchange prices in an efficient market you should expect to break even over time. But you are winning some matches where you would lose on other bookies. unfortunately bookies don't like value betting and gubbing risk is same as the traditional back and lay 2up strategy.
Hey! How many 2ups could you grab per week in terms of general 2up strategy looking for 98+% ?
Hey mate, any chance you could explain what is the best thing to do after you get restricted on the bookies? How do you go about creating a new account without getting instantly restricted again?
Paddy Power and coral do the same offer if there one local to you
My bet365 is gubbed after a few months of hammering the 2ups. I'm also stake restricted but I can still make use of the enhanced prices to squeeze more value. Is the 2up integral to the success or will any 97% match at 1.5 or greater odds work. I'm guessing I can place maybe £25 per day with restrictions? Is enhanced prices a viable option without 2up offer for this to be a successful longish term strategy?
You need the 2UP offer to gain the positive EV otherwise you may as well just back the matches on the Exchange such as Smarkets with 0% commission as the odds will be better.
What made you settle on the 96.0+ ratings mate? must of been some mathematica reasoning?
Would it be better just value betting these. I’d say you’re more likely to get gubbed getting less money down the line. Selections round 103% would I’d have thought get your the more money out of an account.
its exactly what u said in the video , your luck this and luck that... thats gamble and if u dont have an advantage dont do it
I think he was referring to the variance, this strategy does provide an advantage as it removes the probability of a team losing after going 2 goals up.
This doesn't make sense... even a 100% match means diddly other than the bookie price is the same as the exchange. True value is when the bookie odds are greater than the implied chance.
That is arb basically
For example please
Do you have a 2UP gubbed account recommendation? 🙂
I would try to refrain from taking out your winnings for as long as possible, and maybe throw in some activity which is associated with recreational gambling (accas/lucky 15s etc).
There is no real way to prevent restrictions on the account forever as sooner or later it will become abundantly clear that the account is long-term profitable.
@@ProfitPineapple Thanks - mine was gubbed but after around 10 months and 4K profit. Coincidentally it got gubbed when I started doing ACCAs with it. Don't suppose there are good Bet365 2UP alternatives?
Nice but in order to use this strategy you would need tens and tens of Bet £3.65 accounts :) long term.
Very true, the joys of being a value taker and a winning punter!
It would be interesting to see how many games were won by the 2UP offer when a team going two up lost or drew.
I say that because if it’s low then this strategy is more about finding winners of matches. If that’s the case then you don’t need multiple 365 accounts you can apply it to any bookie.
Nice reaction to your own vídeo 😂
hi mate , do you have an Instagram account