Absolutely great work, enjoyed every minute of the talk! I have never seen a wargame or thought about strategies, this was enlightening. This video alone is worth being a Patreon!
You would be shocked at how many times Michael sneaks lyrics into questions as little Easter Eggs. Eg : ruclips.net/video/dTVlnTJH_YY/видео.htmlsi=EwHCCZDZH8z6qv-h&t=3355
Taiwan just got the first shipment of Abrams tanks last week. A lot of stuff Taiwan has paid for like Stinger missiles are still on back order because the stuff was sent to Ukraine.
Ive just found this channel and have immediately subbed like 8 minutes in. I love the modeling approach. My concern is that for us in the west the 'Taiwan Question' is a bit of a geopolitical three body problem, with dramatically different outcomes depending upon our initial assumptions in modeling. For instance, if we presume that Xi feels comfortable with his personal power within the PRC we can assume that war might come later, likely at what the PLA would feel the most optimal military timing. If on the other hand we change only our presumption about Xi's perception of his own power, the Taiwan Question becomes one of political optimization instead of military, and could come at a dramatically different timing. I fear we are too comfortable applying western cultural causal reasoning to the situation, which often does not match the causal reasoning of the Chinese.
The ability for Russia to provide China with oil by land is already at capacity and would take a decade plus to significantly increase capacity. Probably just as important is the crude oil refining capacity. One can do military exercise on paper (or computer) for high level groups with just the commanders and their staff. However, real world exercises are needed to train the troops. Your first echelon must be well trained, but also must also be confortable in taking the initiative. They say no battleplan survives contact with the enemy. The initial echelon will be facing a very dynamic situation with little actually going as planned. Small unit must deviate to some degree from their orders. While China has been trying to promote the taking of initiative for decades, it is questionable how much progress has been made. The Imperial Japanese strategy was to hit Pearl Harbor and grab as much territory as possible, THEN negotiate back most of the territory in the peace negotiations with the US. It was believed that the US would treat the lost of certain territories as a fait accompli and not worth fighting to get back. This actually might have worked against a European power. The US Public took it personally and it would be political suicide for any American politician to even consider negotiate a peace settlement. The problem with these expensive long range missiles against a runway is that they do not destroy a runway. They simply deny its use until repairs are made, which can be anywhere from 4 hours to half a day at most. That runways has to be continually hit and that will deplete already limited long-range missiles stores very quickly. The US will also know if the PLA begins staging for an invasion. gathering all the ships, moveent of troops, and staging of supplies. That could take months and should be visible. The other likelyhood is the US NSA will be intercepting communications within China indicating the preparation. If you are going to block a runway with trucks, do not forget to slash the tires. A few airborne soldiers can put a truck transmission (especially one with manual transmission) into neutral and push the truck off the runway. Slash tires makes this tougher to do. lol Besides ports, airports will be a priority. Capture an airport and you can use civilian aircraft. Granted, I would hate to be a pilot (especially one with a family and no life insurance lol), but it can greatly increase supplies, men and equipment delivery rates. Great video. Armchair generals argues over0 tactics and equipment specs. Professionals discuss logistics. 😉
31:00 … Missile Ranges Where are the stand-off cruise missiles that are well within firing range , the KD-88A/B/C AKF-088C(KF-088C) , AKF-98(KF-98) , KD-63 , YJ-62 , KD-21/YJ-21 , No mention of the DF-100 ,.. No mention of Guided Rockets , the PHL-03 , PHL-16 ,..
Your analysis is interested but flawed in too many ways. If you are going to create scenarios then you should consider the potential players, the politics, their capabilities (present and wartime potential), their likely behavior/history, economic consequences, preparation, allies, geography, logistics, national cohesion, ...... Most basic logic, if the US do not intervene, Taiwan don't stand a chance. Taiwan is an island close to mainland China within range of everything that flies or swim. China can starve Taiwan to submission or can take its time to bomb Taiwan to oblivion using only MLRS drones. Taiwan air-force and air defense will last at most a few days and its navy less than 24hrs. So the only meaningful scenarios to model are the ones where the US does intervene and I would argue that the China's military strategy is structure around a war with the US not Taiwan. And if the US intervenes, so will Japan, Philippines, Australia, Canada and UK. I will assume that South Korea will abstain because if they get involved so will North Korea and this will drains the US coalition more than it add. The facts on the ground, China is a nation of one child families, with lots of missiles, ships, planes, submarines, satellites, gadgets like drones by DJI and many others. China is determined but will be cautious and pragmatics. China is the world's factory plus the world biggest exporter and importer. China needs to trade to survive but not necessarily with the west, the reason for the BRI. How will it begin. Cautiously. China will take the Kinmen Island and blockade Taiwan. Possible respond, Taiwan surrenders, Taiwan breaks the blockade, US breaks the blockade. Only the last possibility result in future scenarios. It is illogical for China to preemptively strike the US bases first, this will make China the aggressor and affect China's rep with the BRI partners. And why pick a fight if you may not need to. If the US intervenes. All its allies are valid targets, China will initiate strikes on Taiwan, US bases in Japan, Guam and the Philippines. Australia and other allies are of very little relevance from both a firepower or logistics point of view. The battles. China will do a Desert Storm on Taiwan and Okinawa. It will do a blocking strategy on US reinforcement and logistics, it will block the commercial air and sea routes. Chinese economy will suffer but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan economies will collapse. All of these countries have little to zero energy resources, no metals, insufficient food. They will take the Battanes islands from the Philippines. They will do a bombardment of Japanese naval and airbases if Japanese forces are involved. It will be an attrition and logistics war that will likely last years. The weapons. China has everything that the US has. Chinese weapons are made where they are used, the US weapons has to be shipped from the US mainland or Europe. The economics. Once the war starts, little and no air or sea traffic will occur. China will fallback on its reserves and land routes. China will assume a war economy, with rationing and all factory are either serving the population or partners or its military. Expect millions of military drones, thousands of missiles, hundreds of ships and planes manufactured a year. The End. Nukes are highly unlikely. A ceasefire after the US runs out ships or weapons. The result, a devastated coastal China, Japan, Taiwan and likely the Philippines. Lots of casualties, sunk ships, destroyed planes and maybe satellites. Economically, a decoupled bipolar world. Taiwan will be administered by China and Japan will never recover, they are already a country of old people. I don't see how the US can win in a conventional war, they are 10,000 km away. They have to cross the Pacific to fight China. China don't even need a Navy to beat the US, just look at the Ukraine example. The US do not have an army or an air force to fight China. Everything will have to come over the Pacific ocean. It is the US Navy against the entire PLA and the Chinese industries. China don't want any part of Japan or the Philippines which they don't already control so No large scale land war.
I have a question though, how is a surprise missile strike even a possibility when, as you said invasion force will take 6 months of I assume quite visible preparation? And I assume just the missile strike and then waiting for an invasion for 6 months would be pretty stupid so that scenario is out...
They hide the build up behind military drills. They had a record size drill a few years ago, they’d have to of course surpass that last drill in size & length.
@@plebius sort of the same scenario as russia did, but if I was military I would be on alert even for a drill ... not sure how much on alert but still more than usual. I would guess the key is exactly how much on alert would US be.
Had Russia taken Ukraine in a few weeks, I think the invasion if Taiwan might be attempted. But seeing how much Russia has suffered as a result, I can't imagine China taking the risk with an invasion.
If anything the prolonged war in the Ukriane has aided China, the west has shown it's cards in terms of what sanctioned would occur. Chinese officers are taking notes on how a 21st century war would be fought, and NATO has quickly burned through any equipment it could've sent to Taiwan had an invasion occurred. Plus Russian military industries are churning out war equipment like never before, which it could use to aid China in a war. Thier economies have grown closer together as a result too. Plus China is in no position to launch an invasion, they simply don't have the transport ships needed to send a million men across the sea in short notice. There's no need for China to invade anyways, all they'd have to do is put up a naval blockade, a capability which they do possess. Just like sanctions against Russia, US and its client states sanctioning China would do more harm to themselves as we are very reliant on Chinese goods for our own economy. Even If the US had the equipment to send to Taiwan during a war it would be logistically impossible, the Ukraine benefits by being bordered to numerous nato states, Taiwan is a lone island with ships carrying war goods being spotted miles away and easily destroyed. Look at the ruckus the houthis have created and they don't even possess anti shipping missles as capable as Chinese ones.
Crazy how quickly the original assumptions are outdated. With Trump in the White House should probably assume just hand everything over to the authoritative regimes.
Awesome talk. Two things that I didn't hear you really discuss, maybe because their relevance to this conflict is minimal, were cyber and space. You kinda took as a given that US satellites would operate with impunity and provide real-time surveillance of Chinese naval forces in the strait. Can China destroy or degrade that ability enough for it to make even a slight difference? I can envision Xi giving the order to aggressively knock out US space assets once he casts the die, do we have any good ideas on how that might play out/what kind of escalation that would represent? The cyber domain seems, to me, like it would play a small role in any conflict, maybe only being useful in sewing propaganda within the enemy's population, but maybe I'm not giving it enough credit. We have virtually no idea how far both the US or China has penetrated the other's military infrastructure. Could it be so deep that when someone presses the button to launch a missile, it doesn't fire? Unfortunately for us on the outside, we don't even know how to bound our imagination on this front. And maybe in light of the fundamental issues of supplies on the island you highlight, it may not be possible for cyber to make any impact. Would love to hear your thoughts. Love the podcast!
Using lasers, no. They might be able to temporarily blind them, but that is not a given either. Using missiles, they have demonstrated the ability in the past by blowing up one of their own satellites. It is however wrought with danger. As it could cause a cascade effect and block any launches by anyone for any purpose for a long time, worst case scenario blocked forever. It could also knock out a lot of others just with debris. That's my limited understanding of it.
04:41 … The PRC Is The Largest Ship Building Builder in the World , With the ShipYards , the technological expertise to build capable (modern) warships and an unlimited Work Force to go with it , - On the other hand the US Shipbuilding MIC has been in decline ever since 92 , They have been hit with a shrinking workforce , Some of their main Warship programs have been plagued with ongoing nagging problems. They can No Longer build Warships on time and on budget. They have very few running Shipyards and a backload of existing Warships needing repair. Let’s Not “Understate” the PRC and “Overstate” the US Shipping Building capabilities…
41:05 … We don’t have a Foreign Policy of Our Own… KEATING has been saying this for Years now , Both WHITE and ROGGEVEEN agree it’s No Longer feasible for us to continue down this path , to base ( mirror ) our Foreign Policy around US interest alone , We need one that is more robust and ASIAN Centric… We Are An ASIAN Country , time to act like one.
2:29 "central tenement of the party's platform"? I must have misheard. 2:30 Reading: I didn't mishear. tenET = "one of the principles on which a belief or theory is based" tenANT = "a person who pays rent for the use of land or a building" tenEMENT = "a room or a set of rooms forming a separate residence within a house or block of apartments" or "a piece of land held by an owner."
The key flaw in your analysis is the failure to take into account the manufacturing might of Chinese economy. The same assumption was made about Russia that they can’t sustain their weapon and equipment losses and they will no choice but to give up once their stockpile has dwindled. The fact has turned out that it is west who had trouble to keep up supplies to Ukrainian forces. US’s reliance on advanced and expensive weapons is their advantage and Achilles heel as shown in Ukraine they take a lot money and time to replenish. If China direct their manufacturing base to support war efforts can you imagine how many drones and missiles it can produce a year. They don’t need quality they need quantity which they will get. Once the American navy runs out their million dollar a pop missiles to shot down the Chinese cheaper and mass produced drones and missiles, they will be sitting ducks.
04:50 - 05:10 … Total Myth , The PLAN would Not have to “siphon funds” to build ( order ) or repair Warships period. Under the scenario of attacking Taiwan in 2026/27 , the PRC would be on a War footing (economy) , Warships production Wouldn’t Decrease , if anything it Would Increase , Greatly. “the economy slowing down narrative” is soo overblown , overused today… Double Digit growth was never going to be a permanent thing ( the PRC growth rate is still higher then it’s nearest competitor the US ) ,.. GERMANY and the UK would literally KILL Right Now to switch positions with the PRC for their 4-5% “slowing economy”… The COVID pandemic did contribute to an economic slow down and caused a pause in Warship production. Coming out of COVID , Commercial Orders were given more priority over Military Orders once production started back up. But now ( Post COVID ) for the most part Warship production has , if not fully return back to their previous levels. Today’s Economies are too connected ( Globalized ) as a whole , far more resilient , better insulated and far more better at adapting to current (potential) financial situation then they were 30 years ago , ( the RUSSIAN FEDERATION was literally Financially Nuked in 22 , But still avoided a total complete collapse ) The PRC has one of the Largest ( if Not the biggest depending on what matrix You use ) Economies in the World , The PRC could mange to Lose Half it’s Entire Wealth Now and own the second largest economy in the World by a great margin only amplifies Their position. We have yet to see the PRC unleashed…
05:44 -05:58 … “The WarShip Gap Theory” Is a US obsession ( of policymakers ) , than anything really rooted in reality , ( kinda like the Bomber Gap hysteria of the 1950s ) even in a “hypothetical” sense it’s Waay Off The Mark… The PLAN Was Always going to have a numerical advantage in Warships vs the USN , simply because the PLAN fleet is concentrated in one region while USN is globally spread across the world. The spike or increase in PLAN Warship numbers shown on the graph simple reflects the PLAN transforming itself from a predominantly Coastal Defensive centric Navy ( of very few capable Nuclear / Diesel Attack Submarines , single purpose Destroyers , Frigates , hundreds of Corvettes , Missiles Boats etc ) to the more capable Near Seas Blue Naval Force we see today ( of Muti Purpose Nuclear / Diesel Attack Submarines , Aircraft Carriers , Large Amphibious Decks , Muti Purpose Destroyers , Frigates , Corvettes , Missile Boats etc ) The PLAN doctrine requirements ARE Drastically Different vs USN doctrine , Their modernization ( Naval buildup ) has Never Been about having the biggest Navy in the World ( having more warships than the USN ) , BUT about Adding New Capabilities that They severely lacked , Which in the end would help Them to defeat ( repel ) any US Forces from their doorstep ( Taiwan , FIC … SIC ) in a conflict period. Adding New Capabilities ( platforms ) to an existing Fleet ( of platforms ) Over time , the older platform are phase out and so You Will eventually see what looks like a “drop” in production as a result of subtraction in Fleet inventory numbers. The PRC isn’t worried about a “gap” it’s the other way around… otherwise Why Not take The Island Of Taiwan in 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , 2023 , 2024 or now? 2025… No need to wait until 26/27 if this was the case.
Xi's isolation? Are you nuts? How many leaders went to see him? How many he is seeing in early May? What isolation? Update how much China semiconductor industry will be grown by 2026 according to current trend for more accurate predication. "Taiwan will medium-low stockpile of gas" - you skipped that very quickly but current situation is that Taiwan only have 13 days of gas supply before running out. Electricity will be down on the first day. "How many people are aware (China)" - in case you forgotten, reunification with ROC is always in the cards for PRC. They teach this constantly in schools for at least 6 decades. People may not know the specifics but if the target is Taiwan then people would know exactly what this is for. This is quite unlike for Russia-Ukrainian situation. "What has US sent to Taiwan" - given the current trend, almost all the weapons US send to Taiwan is short ranged for urban warfare and likely will remain so in the future. "Casus Belli" - you fumble that one really really badly. By ROC constitution, all mainland Chinese are considered citizens of ROC. PRC already has the anti-succession law of 2005. The only casus belli is when DPP formally declare independence or change their constitution . Nothing short of that will give a proper Casus Belli to PRC. From Casus Belli, I see you know nothing about PRC or ROC internal workings or culture while substituting them with a Euro-centric view which most western analyst tend to do anyway. Thus around at least 30% of your total analysis will be wrong. Most likely scenario in your mind is Case IV? Total war with nuclear states? That's voiding another 50% of your analysis. If PRC is taking Kaohsiung on Day 1, then it is impossible not to take the Penghu Island if you look at the geography. There is simply no way to ignore Penghu for any Southern operations. If US planes are flying in Taiwan strait, it is not going to avoid any planes or AA from China at all.
I still think this would happen with Russia simultaniously invading the baltic. This would change everything and US forces would be heavily strained. Also euro allies would not be able to spare anything for the pacific. Also I dont think it would be a short war. History showed that these cases are almost everytime wrong. I also think an invasion of malaysia and parts of indonesia is a must for china in case of a long war. This could also effect india and pakistan and I can imagine a new axis being founded. When the US looks like i lost the first weeks it could draw a lot of other countries onto the side of china. If China starts this it has nothing to lose. They would attack everyone not allied around them.
I think you might want to consider what side Australia is going to be on as you know that the both sides of the political divide are coming towards agreement that china is more of a friend
Absolutely great work, enjoyed every minute of the talk! I have never seen a wargame or thought about strategies, this was enlightening. This video alone is worth being a Patreon!
I didnt even know I was a Patreon!
This is best video on this topic I’ve ever seen, it’s not even close. Thank you
I didn't think I'd laugh during this episode but the "one shot one opportunity" part had me rolling😂
You would be shocked at how many times Michael sneaks lyrics into questions as little Easter Eggs.
Eg : ruclips.net/video/dTVlnTJH_YY/видео.htmlsi=EwHCCZDZH8z6qv-h&t=3355
Mom's 炒麵?
Great job on this, love the excel spreadsheet. Let's hope none of this ever happens.
Taiwan just got the first shipment of Abrams tanks last week. A lot of stuff Taiwan has paid for like Stinger missiles are still on back order because the stuff was sent to Ukraine.
Does 5:41 Chinas new landing ship/ pier developments change the likely outcome?
Supurb video. Makes it very tempting to join patrion of this is the type of content I'm missing out on.
Ive just found this channel and have immediately subbed like 8 minutes in. I love the modeling approach.
My concern is that for us in the west the 'Taiwan Question' is a bit of a geopolitical three body problem, with dramatically different outcomes depending upon our initial assumptions in modeling. For instance, if we presume that Xi feels comfortable with his personal power within the PRC we can assume that war might come later, likely at what the PLA would feel the most optimal military timing.
If on the other hand we change only our presumption about Xi's perception of his own power, the Taiwan Question becomes one of political optimization instead of military, and could come at a dramatically different timing.
I fear we are too comfortable applying western cultural causal reasoning to the situation, which often does not match the causal reasoning of the Chinese.
If north korea opens its guns towards south, how would it affect the taiwan invasion?
The ability for Russia to provide China with oil by land is already at capacity and would take a decade plus to significantly increase capacity. Probably just as important is the crude oil refining capacity.
One can do military exercise on paper (or computer) for high level groups with just the commanders and their staff. However, real world exercises are needed to train the troops.
Your first echelon must be well trained, but also must also be confortable in taking the initiative. They say no battleplan survives contact with the enemy. The initial echelon will be facing a very dynamic situation with little actually going as planned. Small unit must deviate to some degree from their orders. While China has been trying to promote the taking of initiative for decades, it is questionable how much progress has been made.
The Imperial Japanese strategy was to hit Pearl Harbor and grab as much territory as possible, THEN negotiate back most of the territory in the peace negotiations with the US. It was believed that the US would treat the lost of certain territories as a fait accompli and not worth fighting to get back. This actually might have worked against a European power. The US Public took it personally and it would be political suicide for any American politician to even consider negotiate a peace settlement.
The problem with these expensive long range missiles against a runway is that they do not destroy a runway. They simply deny its use until repairs are made, which can be anywhere from 4 hours to half a day at most. That runways has to be continually hit and that will deplete already limited long-range missiles stores very quickly.
The US will also know if the PLA begins staging for an invasion. gathering all the ships, moveent of troops, and staging of supplies. That could take months and should be visible. The other likelyhood is the US NSA will be intercepting communications within China indicating the preparation.
If you are going to block a runway with trucks, do not forget to slash the tires. A few airborne soldiers can put a truck transmission (especially one with manual transmission) into neutral and push the truck off the runway. Slash tires makes this tougher to do. lol
Besides ports, airports will be a priority. Capture an airport and you can use civilian aircraft. Granted, I would hate to be a pilot (especially one with a family and no life insurance lol), but it can greatly increase supplies, men and equipment delivery rates.
Great video. Armchair generals argues over0 tactics and equipment specs. Professionals discuss logistics. 😉
Which nets better profit for you: RUclips or Spotify? I can use either when I'm listening at home. Just curious. :)
31:00 … Missile Ranges
Where are the stand-off cruise missiles that are well within firing range , the KD-88A/B/C AKF-088C(KF-088C) , AKF-98(KF-98) , KD-63 , YJ-62 , KD-21/YJ-21 ,
No mention of the DF-100 ,..
No mention of Guided Rockets , the PHL-03 , PHL-16 ,..
You model Chinese supplies buy what of Taiwans? Hows their stockpile?
Do you play wargames? Any off the shelf games you recommend on this conflict?
Your analysis is interested but flawed in too many ways. If you are going to create scenarios then you should consider the potential players, the politics, their capabilities (present and wartime potential), their likely behavior/history, economic consequences, preparation, allies, geography, logistics, national cohesion, ......
Most basic logic, if the US do not intervene, Taiwan don't stand a chance. Taiwan is an island close to mainland China within range of everything that flies or swim. China can starve Taiwan to submission or can take its time to bomb Taiwan to oblivion using only MLRS drones. Taiwan air-force and air defense will last at most a few days and its navy less than 24hrs.
So the only meaningful scenarios to model are the ones where the US does intervene and I would argue that the China's military strategy is structure around a war with the US not Taiwan. And if the US intervenes, so will Japan, Philippines, Australia, Canada and UK. I will assume that South Korea will abstain because if they get involved so will North Korea and this will drains the US coalition more than it add.
The facts on the ground, China is a nation of one child families, with lots of missiles, ships, planes, submarines, satellites, gadgets like drones by DJI and many others. China is determined but will be cautious and pragmatics. China is the world's factory plus the world biggest exporter and importer. China needs to trade to survive but not necessarily with the west, the reason for the BRI.
How will it begin. Cautiously. China will take the Kinmen Island and blockade Taiwan. Possible respond, Taiwan surrenders, Taiwan breaks the blockade, US breaks the blockade. Only the last possibility result in future scenarios. It is illogical for China to preemptively strike the US bases first, this will make China the aggressor and affect China's rep with the BRI partners. And why pick a fight if you may not need to.
If the US intervenes. All its allies are valid targets, China will initiate strikes on Taiwan, US bases in Japan, Guam and the Philippines. Australia and other allies are of very little relevance from both a firepower or logistics point of view.
The battles. China will do a Desert Storm on Taiwan and Okinawa. It will do a blocking strategy on US reinforcement and logistics, it will block the commercial air and sea routes. Chinese economy will suffer but Japan, South Korea, Taiwan economies will collapse. All of these countries have little to zero energy resources, no metals, insufficient food. They will take the Battanes islands from the Philippines. They will do a bombardment of Japanese naval and airbases if Japanese forces are involved. It will be an attrition and logistics war that will likely last years.
The weapons. China has everything that the US has. Chinese weapons are made where they are used, the US weapons has to be shipped from the US mainland or Europe.
The economics. Once the war starts, little and no air or sea traffic will occur. China will fallback on its reserves and land routes. China will assume a war economy, with rationing and all factory are either serving the population or partners or its military. Expect millions of military drones, thousands of missiles, hundreds of ships and planes manufactured a year.
The End. Nukes are highly unlikely. A ceasefire after the US runs out ships or weapons. The result, a devastated coastal China, Japan, Taiwan and likely the Philippines. Lots of casualties, sunk ships, destroyed planes and maybe satellites.
Economically, a decoupled bipolar world. Taiwan will be administered by China and Japan will never recover, they are already a country of old people.
I don't see how the US can win in a conventional war, they are 10,000 km away. They have to cross the Pacific to fight China. China don't even need a Navy to beat the US, just look at the Ukraine example. The US do not have an army or an air force to fight China. Everything will have to come over the Pacific ocean. It is the US Navy against the entire PLA and the Chinese industries. China don't want any part of Japan or the Philippines which they don't already control so No large scale land war.
I like the jist of your analysis
Sounds much more reasonable than the clownish scenario being narrated !!!
What do you mean with a "green army"?
I have a question though, how is a surprise missile strike even a possibility when, as you said invasion force will take 6 months of I assume quite visible preparation? And I assume just the missile strike and then waiting for an invasion for 6 months would be pretty stupid so that scenario is out...
They hide the build up behind military drills. They had a record size drill a few years ago, they’d have to of course surpass that last drill in size & length.
The Russians built up on the border with Ukraine for months before invading and it was still a surprise
@@RamGutta and the US was telling everybody that they will do it daily.. for quite a while before that.
@@concretedonkey4726China regularly does massive drills there. So they could just pretend it's one of these drills, and attack.
@@plebius sort of the same scenario as russia did, but if I was military I would be on alert even for a drill ... not sure how much on alert but still more than usual. I would guess the key is exactly how much on alert would US be.
Out of interest what do you think Australia's foreign policy should be?
Had Russia taken Ukraine in a few weeks, I think the invasion if Taiwan might be attempted. But seeing how much Russia has suffered as a result, I can't imagine China taking the risk with an invasion.
Especially since the Chinese military has essentially zero actual combat experience for however many decades
If anything the prolonged war in the Ukriane has aided China, the west has shown it's cards in terms of what sanctioned would occur. Chinese officers are taking notes on how a 21st century war would be fought, and NATO has quickly burned through any equipment it could've sent to Taiwan had an invasion occurred. Plus Russian military industries are churning out war equipment like never before, which it could use to aid China in a war. Thier economies have grown closer together as a result too.
Plus China is in no position to launch an invasion, they simply don't have the transport ships needed to send a million men across the sea in short notice. There's no need for China to invade anyways, all they'd have to do is put up a naval blockade, a capability which they do possess.
Just like sanctions against Russia, US and its client states sanctioning China would do more harm to themselves as we are very reliant on Chinese goods for our own economy.
Even If the US had the equipment to send to Taiwan during a war it would be logistically impossible, the Ukraine benefits by being bordered to numerous nato states, Taiwan is a lone island with ships carrying war goods being spotted miles away and easily destroyed. Look at the ruckus the houthis have created and they don't even possess anti shipping missles as capable as Chinese ones.
@@BoleDaPole so why do you think hasn't China acted yet? What could they be waiting for?
Crazy how quickly the original assumptions are outdated. With Trump in the White House should probably assume just hand everything over to the authoritative regimes.
don't tell him im not from the patreon
Xi’s isolation, political instability… I think you don’t have a clue what you talking about.
Awesome talk. Two things that I didn't hear you really discuss, maybe because their relevance to this conflict is minimal, were cyber and space.
You kinda took as a given that US satellites would operate with impunity and provide real-time surveillance of Chinese naval forces in the strait. Can China destroy or degrade that ability enough for it to make even a slight difference? I can envision Xi giving the order to aggressively knock out US space assets once he casts the die, do we have any good ideas on how that might play out/what kind of escalation that would represent?
The cyber domain seems, to me, like it would play a small role in any conflict, maybe only being useful in sewing propaganda within the enemy's population, but maybe I'm not giving it enough credit. We have virtually no idea how far both the US or China has penetrated the other's military infrastructure. Could it be so deep that when someone presses the button to launch a missile, it doesn't fire? Unfortunately for us on the outside, we don't even know how to bound our imagination on this front. And maybe in light of the fundamental issues of supplies on the island you highlight, it may not be possible for cyber to make any impact.
Would love to hear your thoughts. Love the podcast!
Using lasers, no. They might be able to temporarily blind them, but that is not a given either. Using missiles, they have demonstrated the ability in the past by blowing up one of their own satellites. It is however wrought with danger. As it could cause a cascade effect and block any launches by anyone for any purpose for a long time, worst case scenario blocked forever. It could also knock out a lot of others just with debris. That's my limited understanding of it.
Nice
Danke für 26 Jahre Leben in Frieden und Freiheit in der DDR!
04:41 …
The PRC Is The Largest Ship Building Builder in the World , With the ShipYards , the technological expertise to build capable (modern) warships and an unlimited Work Force to go with it ,
- On the other hand the US Shipbuilding MIC has been in decline ever since 92 , They have been hit with a shrinking workforce , Some of their main Warship programs have been plagued with ongoing nagging problems. They can No Longer build Warships on time and on budget. They have very few running Shipyards and a backload of existing Warships needing repair.
Let’s Not “Understate” the PRC and “Overstate” the US Shipping Building capabilities…
41:05 …
We don’t have a Foreign Policy of Our Own…
KEATING has been saying this for Years now , Both WHITE and ROGGEVEEN agree it’s No Longer feasible for us to continue down this path , to base ( mirror ) our Foreign Policy around US interest alone , We need one that is more robust and ASIAN Centric… We Are An ASIAN Country , time to act like one.
2:29 "central tenement of the party's platform"? I must have misheard. 2:30 Reading: I didn't mishear.
tenET = "one of the principles on which a belief or theory is based"
tenANT = "a person who pays rent for the use of land or a building"
tenEMENT = "a room or a set of rooms forming a separate residence within a house or block of apartments" or "a piece of land held by an owner."
The key flaw in your analysis is the failure to take into account the manufacturing might of Chinese economy. The same assumption was made about Russia that they can’t sustain their weapon and equipment losses and they will no choice but to give up once their stockpile has dwindled. The fact has turned out that it is west who had trouble to keep up supplies to Ukrainian forces. US’s reliance on advanced and expensive weapons is their advantage and Achilles heel as shown in Ukraine they take a lot money and time to replenish. If China direct their manufacturing base to support war efforts can you imagine how many drones and missiles it can produce a year. They don’t need quality they need quantity which they will get. Once the American navy runs out their million dollar a pop missiles to shot down the Chinese cheaper and mass produced drones and missiles, they will be sitting ducks.
04:50 - 05:10 …
Total Myth , The PLAN would Not have to “siphon funds” to build ( order ) or repair Warships period. Under the scenario of attacking Taiwan in 2026/27 , the PRC would be on a War footing (economy) , Warships production Wouldn’t Decrease , if anything it Would Increase , Greatly.
“the economy slowing down narrative” is soo overblown , overused today…
Double Digit growth was never going to be a permanent thing ( the PRC growth rate is still higher then it’s nearest competitor the US ) ,.. GERMANY and the UK would literally KILL Right Now to switch positions with the PRC for their 4-5% “slowing economy”…
The COVID pandemic did contribute to an economic slow down and caused a pause in Warship production. Coming out of COVID , Commercial Orders were given more priority over Military Orders once production started back up. But now ( Post COVID ) for the most part Warship production has , if not fully return back to their previous levels.
Today’s Economies are too connected ( Globalized ) as a whole , far more resilient , better insulated and far more better at adapting to current (potential) financial situation then they were 30 years ago , ( the RUSSIAN FEDERATION was literally Financially Nuked in 22 , But still avoided a total complete collapse )
The PRC has one of the Largest ( if Not the biggest depending on what matrix You use ) Economies in the World , The PRC could mange to Lose Half it’s Entire Wealth Now and own the second largest economy in the World by a great margin only amplifies Their position. We have yet to see the PRC unleashed…
Such a pity your 2 upfront assumptions are all wrong
No, you know what, all the later preconditions are also wrong😂
Should focus on CW2.0 which is more like to happen. Taiwain stuff is plain joke.
05:44 -05:58 …
“The WarShip Gap Theory” Is a US obsession ( of policymakers ) , than anything really rooted in reality , ( kinda like the Bomber Gap hysteria of the 1950s ) even in a “hypothetical” sense it’s Waay Off The Mark…
The PLAN Was Always going to have a numerical advantage in Warships vs the USN , simply because the PLAN fleet is concentrated in one region while USN is globally spread across the world.
The spike or increase in PLAN Warship numbers shown on the graph simple reflects the PLAN transforming itself from a predominantly Coastal Defensive centric Navy ( of very few capable Nuclear / Diesel Attack Submarines , single purpose Destroyers , Frigates , hundreds of Corvettes , Missiles Boats etc ) to the more capable Near Seas Blue Naval Force we see today ( of Muti Purpose Nuclear / Diesel Attack Submarines , Aircraft Carriers , Large Amphibious Decks , Muti Purpose Destroyers , Frigates , Corvettes , Missile Boats etc )
The PLAN doctrine requirements ARE Drastically Different vs USN doctrine ,
Their modernization ( Naval buildup ) has Never Been about having the biggest Navy in the World ( having more warships than the USN ) , BUT about Adding New Capabilities that They severely lacked , Which in the end would help Them to defeat ( repel ) any US Forces from their doorstep ( Taiwan , FIC … SIC ) in a conflict period.
Adding New Capabilities ( platforms ) to an existing Fleet ( of platforms )
Over time , the older platform are phase out and so You Will eventually see what looks like a “drop” in production as a result of subtraction in Fleet inventory numbers.
The PRC isn’t worried about a “gap” it’s the other way around… otherwise Why Not take The Island Of Taiwan in 2020 , 2021 , 2022 , 2023 , 2024 or now? 2025… No need to wait until 26/27 if this was the case.
Putin or xi?
They're both easterners, so I choose the western alliance.
Xi's isolation? Are you nuts? How many leaders went to see him? How many he is seeing in early May? What isolation?
Update how much China semiconductor industry will be grown by 2026 according to current trend for more accurate predication.
"Taiwan will medium-low stockpile of gas" - you skipped that very quickly but current situation is that Taiwan only have 13 days of gas supply before running out. Electricity will be down on the first day.
"How many people are aware (China)" - in case you forgotten, reunification with ROC is always in the cards for PRC. They teach this constantly in schools for at least 6 decades. People may not know the specifics but if the target is Taiwan then people would know exactly what this is for. This is quite unlike for Russia-Ukrainian situation.
"What has US sent to Taiwan" - given the current trend, almost all the weapons US send to Taiwan is short ranged for urban warfare and likely will remain so in the future.
"Casus Belli" - you fumble that one really really badly. By ROC constitution, all mainland Chinese are considered citizens of ROC. PRC already has the anti-succession law of 2005. The only casus belli is when DPP formally declare independence or change their constitution . Nothing short of that will give a proper Casus Belli to PRC.
From Casus Belli, I see you know nothing about PRC or ROC internal workings or culture while substituting them with a Euro-centric view which most western analyst tend to do anyway. Thus around at least 30% of your total analysis will be wrong.
Most likely scenario in your mind is Case IV? Total war with nuclear states? That's voiding another 50% of your analysis.
If PRC is taking Kaohsiung on Day 1, then it is impossible not to take the Penghu Island if you look at the geography. There is simply no way to ignore Penghu for any Southern operations.
If US planes are flying in Taiwan strait, it is not going to avoid any planes or AA from China at all.
I still think this would happen with Russia simultaniously invading the baltic. This would change everything and US forces would be heavily strained. Also euro allies would not be able to spare anything for the pacific. Also I dont think it would be a short war. History showed that these cases are almost everytime wrong. I also think an invasion of malaysia and parts of indonesia is a must for china in case of a long war. This could also effect india and pakistan and I can imagine a new axis being founded. When the US looks like i lost the first weeks it could draw a lot of other countries onto the side of china. If China starts this it has nothing to lose. They would attack everyone not allied around them.
Well, Trump got elected. I hope it doesn't mess up your modeling.
Watching from Kaohsiung, guess I'll die
Delusional. Lol.
Trade Kinmen for Hong Kong.
I think you might want to consider what side Australia is going to be on as you know that the both sides of the political divide are coming towards agreement that china is more of a friend
Ha! Good one, "mate."