You do amazing work, thank you. Can you do a video on the effects of the man on base starting extra innings and live betting algorithm tenancies and recent changes? On a slightly relevant note, Ive noticed up until about a month ago the algo was not accounting for a position player pitching. It has wised up since.
I'm in the process of moving to NJ (legal sportsbooks, halleujah!) and this video is amazingly comprehensive without going too deep into the weeds. Thank you!
Good stuff. Obviously, very smart. Surprises me that 'a' is used instead of 'an' when using before a word that begins w a vowel. An indication. Not, a indication. Thats a negative EV statement. 😂
Are you referencing at 7:16 when I said it's not "a really strong indication?" That's the only time I used the word indication that I could find, and I used it grammatically correct.
I'll have to rewatch to see where I noticed. Im not proud that Im a grammar nerd. Just cant help myself. With that said, I dont care. Your videos are, BY FAR, the most insightful, helpful ones out there. Great stuff. Thank U.
Hey Jack, I'm fairly new to betting baseball, but I understand why you want to avoid laying big favorites, just wanted to see if you had any guidelines about when to look for a run line instead of the money line for a big favorite? I'm sure it varies based on total and other factors but is 180 or 190 about the range when you should avoid the money line?
The run line is just a mathematically derivation of the moneyline price (with away/home split and total factored in). As such, there's no hard fast rule on when a run line would be a better option. Heavy favorites can be bad bets because their value can be overstated in such a long season, looking at the run line won't change that over-value bias.
Great video; very well researched, edited and timely published. One question though: in many of your online sportsbook reviews, you indicate that most books will limit or deny action from sharp bettors. Therefore my question is: how do brick and mortar sportsbooks tend to be about this? Do you suggest avoiding getting a player's card when possible so the Casinos can't track your win/loss ratio? Again, thank you very much for the awesome content, and best of luck to you this season!
Thanks Josh. Betting sharp in retail sportsbooks, in person, takes a little bit work. Many require a players card for wagers over a certain amount. You can wager anonymously if you keep your action under those thresholds but even then you run the risk of being remembered by management and identified as sharp. Some have kiosks where you can get lower limit bets through, but that's not always a reliable method either. My advice is to either be as anonymous as possible or if you're going to have to give ID or a players card, be as likable as possible. Get to know the people that work in the sportsbook, refer to them by name, ask them how their day is going. Be someone who they want to take a bet from not someone that they loathe when they see you coming. I hope variance smiles on you as well this season.
Hey Jack, I just got set up with a local bookie. Was hoping he was going to use a pph service. Instead they just use closing lines on a odds website as the price. Is it even worth it to use this out? Only time it seems worthwhile is for dogs vs. Heavy money favorites.
That sounds pretty rinky-dink. Takes all the fun out of the process. Chances are if they are that low-tech they're also too low-budget to fade someone actually winning. I'd avoid it.
cj you are the best like spanky says how the hell do you have the time for all you do just for us others out here, i have a questions about dime lines first step i have learned from you and guys like you spanky,rufus and jeff, jake, jason beem from horse racing nis to shop price so if i have let's say 5 outs what do i care if it's a dime line or not, what am i missing, thanks
First, thanks for the kind words, Jim. I appreciate that. You're right, line shopping is better than dime lines. Those dime lines are great for a casual bettor who just wants to bet his team to win, and they can certainly be the best available line, but it's no substitute for finding the best price before you place your bet. 👍
The mistake everybody makes is thinking that sports are like the card it humans anything can happen. It's 50/50 no matter what, trying to study humans in sport is ridiculous that's the casino's game is to make you think it's about stats
@@CaptainJackAndrews as a college student, im curious. so everyday you're on bookmaker.eu wagering $10k everyday? have you thought about quitting if you weren't profitable?
I just cut off the MLB, NFL and NBA channels out of my cable package. I was a strong baseball fan who even paid for playoff tickets before. Now, I am not going to spend a nickel on MLB. I am more angry with the Commissioner than the players. The Commissioner could put an end to this fast. But MLB on Twitter is criticizing the fans who are criticizing the kneeling. Official MLB is defending the kneeling. I can't tolerate MLB attacking the fans that support standing for the flag and anthem.
Great information, my friend. You are on the ball.
You do amazing work, thank you. Can you do a video on the effects of the man on base starting extra innings and live betting algorithm tenancies and recent changes?
On a slightly relevant note, Ive noticed up until about a month ago the algo was not accounting for a position player pitching. It has wised up since.
I'm in the process of moving to NJ (legal sportsbooks, halleujah!) and this video is amazingly comprehensive without going too deep into the weeds. Thank you!
Glad it was helpful. Welcome to the land of competitive bookmaking (sorry about everything else in the state😕).
Great stuff Jack your evolving nicely on youtube. Best of luck moving forward.
Much appreciated!
Good stuff. Obviously, very smart. Surprises me that 'a' is used instead of 'an' when using before a word that begins w a vowel. An indication. Not, a indication. Thats a negative EV statement. 😂
Are you referencing at 7:16 when I said it's not "a really strong indication?" That's the only time I used the word indication that I could find, and I used it grammatically correct.
I'll have to rewatch to see where I noticed. Im not proud that Im a grammar nerd. Just cant help myself. With that said, I dont care. Your videos are, BY FAR, the most insightful, helpful ones out there. Great stuff. Thank U.
Good stuff. If you are experienced, prob. just skip to 15:00
Hey Jack, I'm fairly new to betting baseball, but I understand why you want to avoid laying big favorites, just wanted to see if you had any guidelines about when to look for a run line instead of the money line for a big favorite? I'm sure it varies based on total and other factors but is 180 or 190 about the range when you should avoid the money line?
The run line is just a mathematically derivation of the moneyline price (with away/home split and total factored in). As such, there's no hard fast rule on when a run line would be a better option. Heavy favorites can be bad bets because their value can be overstated in such a long season, looking at the run line won't change that over-value bias.
92 thumbs up, 0 down. Damn right. Finally some justice on the Internet.
What's the best yes or no 1st inning strategy to win?
1st inning bets are not hard to handicap. Look at who will be batting and who will be pitching. Also, never bet No.
Thanks captain jack you're the best
ADDENDUM: It looks like Caesars Sportsbooks also offer a dime line on MLB moneylines. 👍
Great video; very well researched, edited and timely published. One question though: in many of your online sportsbook reviews, you indicate that most books will limit or deny action from sharp bettors. Therefore my question is: how do brick and mortar sportsbooks tend to be about this? Do you suggest avoiding getting a player's card when possible so the Casinos can't track your win/loss ratio? Again, thank you very much for the awesome content, and best of luck to you this season!
Thanks Josh. Betting sharp in retail sportsbooks, in person, takes a little bit work. Many require a players card for wagers over a certain amount. You can wager anonymously if you keep your action under those thresholds but even then you run the risk of being remembered by management and identified as sharp. Some have kiosks where you can get lower limit bets through, but that's not always a reliable method either. My advice is to either be as anonymous as possible or if you're going to have to give ID or a players card, be as likable as possible. Get to know the people that work in the sportsbook, refer to them by name, ask them how their day is going. Be someone who they want to take a bet from not someone that they loathe when they see you coming.
I hope variance smiles on you as well this season.
Hey Jack, I just got set up with a local bookie. Was hoping he was going to use a pph service. Instead they just use closing lines on a odds website as the price. Is it even worth it to use this out? Only time it seems worthwhile is for dogs vs. Heavy money favorites.
That sounds pretty rinky-dink. Takes all the fun out of the process. Chances are if they are that low-tech they're also too low-budget to fade someone actually winning. I'd avoid it.
cj you are the best like spanky says how the hell do you have the time for all you do just for us others out here, i have a questions about dime lines first step i have learned from you and guys like you spanky,rufus and jeff, jake, jason beem from horse racing nis to shop price so if i have let's say 5 outs what do i care if it's a dime line or not, what am i missing, thanks
First, thanks for the kind words, Jim. I appreciate that. You're right, line shopping is better than dime lines. Those dime lines are great for a casual bettor who just wants to bet his team to win, and they can certainly be the best available line, but it's no substitute for finding the best price before you place your bet. 👍
The mistake everybody makes is thinking that sports are like the card it humans anything can happen. It's 50/50 no matter what, trying to study humans in sport is ridiculous that's the casino's game is to make you think it's about stats
Do U bet for a living?
Yes.
@@CaptainJackAndrews as a college student, im curious. so everyday you're on bookmaker.eu wagering $10k everyday? have you thought about quitting if you weren't profitable?
That’s an odd assumption as to how someone makes money betting for a living. Have you watched my video on How to Make $100k/yr Betting on Sports?
@@CaptainJackAndrews yes
@@CaptainJackAndrews do you build your own models to beat the market?
I just cut off the MLB, NFL and NBA channels out of my cable package. I was a
strong baseball fan who even paid for playoff tickets before. Now, I
am not going to spend a nickel on MLB. I am more angry with the
Commissioner than the players. The Commissioner could put an end to
this fast. But MLB on Twitter is criticizing the fans who are criticizing the
kneeling. Official MLB is defending the kneeling. I can't tolerate MLB attacking the fans that support standing for the flag and anthem.
The nice part about betting on sports is that whether you lean red or blue - the money is still green.
And... the Marlins made the playoffs. Haha