Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower Ep 6: The Proliferation Implications of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

In this episode of Machiavelli in the Ivory Tower, hosts Sarah and Hanna speak with Nicholas Miller, associate professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. Their conversation focuses on the proliferation implications of Russia’s war against Ukraine one year on. With Professor Miller, they examine the evolving discourse around proliferation cascades over time and assess whether concerns about the emergence of such a cascade following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have been exaggerated. In so doing, they discuss insights Professor Miller has derived from his work relating to the factors that drive or inhibit proliferation, the degree to which some appear to matter more than others, and the relationship between arms control and nonproliferation regimes. Toward the end of their discussion, they touch upon the concept of “nuclear learning” and speculate about the kinds of lessons policymakers globally might draw from the current crisis. At the conclusion of the conversation, Professor Miller offers his view on the interactions between the scholarly and policy communities, what they can gain from interacting with one another, and techniques and approaches to make these interactions more productive.
Chapters:
01:27 Introduction
01:56 Implications of the war in Ukraine for nonproliferation
07:23 Should we be concerned about further proliferation in the Middle East?
08:55 Is the discourse around proliferation "cascades" different now than in the past?
18:29 Factors that slow proliferation
26:02 The link between arms control and proliferation
33:50 Could the demise of arms control empower advocates for nuclear weapons?
38:04 Concerns about Russia enabling proliferation
48:32 Lessons learned
59:34 Recommendations for bridging the gap between scholars and policymakers