The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?
@Phil Stones I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
@@floxydorathy6611 we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?
@@MrGravity304 My Financial Advisor is NICOLE DESIREE SIMON. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can run a quick online research with her name if you care for supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
This bank crisis is so far from being over. Anyone who has been around for longer than 12 years, knows a credit crisis isn't over in two weeks. Makes me laugh seeing folks thinking this was all over so quickly. We are seeing a credit contraction that is gonna lead to a major contraction.
Over the years, I have learnt not to trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor and it has been paying off. No major loss has ever been recorded since 2019 i started. I'm never going back to banks full time.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
@@AdamGreene222 renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, “Susan Bauer Normansell” my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
@@laszlolee I discovered her, reached out via email, and arranged a call, anticipating her response. My goal is to commence 2023 on a positive financial trajectory.
@@qwerty4324ify 😅i😊😢😢😮 it would make an offer DD of any by this Friday ya soon I think that I am out there was some other people at a very short term are a couple weeks to do the work all posts to get back in😮😮
Let's say-> Bring/Force rates to Zero again for another decade to STEAL MORE from Savers Free Market rates and continue Wealth transfering that Tens of Trillions to TOP Asset Bubble Riders, Speculators and debtors. Steal from Savers to save Massive Asset Bubble Riders. This way home prices will double again, buildings and warehouses will double again and the bottom 50% can live in tents. If that Fails>> BAIL OUT BANKSTERS AGAIN and ALL the large property groups and put thier TRASH assets on the Feds Books and give the trash property holders 100 to 120 cents on the dollar in Ca$h 4 TRASH Programs !! Let's socialize the losses like the Socialists we are. Americans should continually be whipped up into BUYING and BORROWING Frenzies to keep the system going like we did this last few years when the Fed & Govt Injected 5 trillion into the economy.
Woodward crying - why can't I lend to completely unproductive borrowers and capture a risk-free spread as credit continues to balloon. It's over. No refunds.
Glad Randy pointed out the real problem started when rates went to zero. I agree Powell may have raised too fast but Ben and Janet hold a bulk of the blame.
Joseph Wang said that 2022 record lending was what (nearly singlehandedly) stages of a recession while keeping inflation sticky. That m means the severity of this credit crunch is very fundamentally deflationionary.
I find it fascinahing how cryto prices can fluctuate so drastically in such a short amount of time. It's a testament to the volatility of the market and the unpredictableility of investor sentiment. However, I believe that these fluctuations are simply part of the journey towards mainstream adoption and eventual stabilization. Despite the risks, I remain bullish on the potential of coyptocurrencies to disrupt traditional finance and usher in a new era of decentralized transactions. Recent volatility makes it impossible to predict bullish or bearish trends, and trading success depends on the pattern and signal source. Rebecca Catherine tactics have helped me increase my portfolio by six figures in just a few weeks, and his daily trades provide valuable information beyond just advice
I recently started my trading with expert Mrs Rebecca Catherine and I'm already marveling over the profits she made for me, assuming I met her on time I would've been a Millonair by now
Same here I wish I knew about Mrs Rebecca Catherine on time. She also teaches her investors how to predict and trade on their own and also give access for them to see and also monitor their trades in other for them to understand and know how it's works
This is the most insightful and fascinating interview I’ve watched in a long time. Thank you for the great content. Would love to see these industry insiders again every quarter.
So much whining and commiserating about the Fed and how it needs to lower interest rates. The Fed need to keep going higher on rates to (1) get inflation under control and match the Fed Funds rate with the Taylor Rule Model and it's variations and (2) provide a real rate of return of at least 2% for savers. The Fed has been punishing savers and emboldening people to take on debt to live beyond their means and also to speculators for malinvestment. Office properties were overbuilt based on low interest rates. Had the hurdle rates been higher and "normal" - these properites would not have been built. It's going to take years to bring inflation down again. Data from month to month are filled with "noise". Prices are waaaay up for real people and consumers.
I'm glad Randy mentioned the interview with Vincent David, because the thing that popped into my mind when these guys were talking about this credit crunch wall fast-approaching was Vincent's statement that the fed put is never dead. If things are even half as bad for the banks as these guys are predicting then the FED hikes are over. If CPI stays hot and the market figures out the FED is done hiking look for gold to take off and set a new all-time record.
You can tell these are sales guys who love to hear themselves talk. The have all of the old tired cliches. 39:50 Yeah we all see lending is pulling back and we all know why. We don't need some simpleton salesman's high school level "circling back to get a good feeling of why loans are pulling back" explanation. 40:04 Now this guy has really shown he'sanidiot. Anyone who is wringing their hands over "deflation",.. when the government is deficit spending over 5% of GDP and continuing to print money through abysmal and irresponsible fiscal policy in spite of the Fed;s efforts to fight inflation while current CPI is near 5% and growing on TOP of an accumulation of 20 to 50% inflation cemented into the economic fabric over the last 2 years is just batpoopinsane. The Fed doesn't "want us to call it disinflation ,.. rather than deflation",... IT IS DISINFLATOIONmoron. Month over month inflation is averaging about 0.3%. Deflation is nowhere on the horizon. If it is ,.. most would welcome it. 1:10:12 Good question Jack,.. but this went over their heads. You were asking about banks that had made floating rate loans. They should be ok. He BS'ed and started talking about residetnial fixed,.. because he had no clue how to respond. I mean he couldN'T just say,.. "good question,.. I don't have thecurrent info on that"... He had to try to bullsheet his way through,
Credit score do not determine mortgage volume or housing prices - it's the borrower pool's of debt to income. When interest rates rise borrower's (with their same fico score) must now buy less (cheaper) house because their monthly mortgage payment remains the same. This is where housing prices start falling because higher interest rates reduce the pool of potential buyers. This lag can be as little as a quarter to a couple years but eventually supply and demand find a happy medium at the buyer pool's monthly payment. Don't liquidate MBS with 2-4% interest rates - those will be guaranteed money.
One of the best episodes of FG I recall. Added a lot of detail and clarified many points after the March regional banking issues. Well done and thanks, gents. Would appreciate a repeat convo in a few months.
Whatever microphone John is using, you should send that to all your guests. Sometimes your podcasts are unlistenable because they use the computer microphone.
Money isn't really created when banks make a loan. I used to think so too. Actually money is created when Congress does deficit spending. The Fed's only role is setting interest rates by the amount of QE it does.
2009 area of time and yes, Wall Street mortgage abuse… Credit Crunch … reminds of when I had a non-used line of credit for 100k and received letter that it was no longer available/permanently closed. Currently I have a 5 figure credit card with little on it…. Will I recv a letter on that account?
Let's say-> Bring/Force rates to Zero again for another decade to STEAL MORE from Savers Free Market rates and continue Wealth transfering that Tens of Trillions to TOP Asset Bubble Riders, Speculators and debtors. Steal from Savers to save Massive Asset Bubble Riders. This way home prices will double again, buildings and warehouses will double again and the bottom 50% can live in tents. If that Fails>> BAIL OUT BANKSTERS AGAIN and ALL the large property groups and put thier TRASH assets on the Feds Books and give the trash property holders 100 to 120 cents on the dollar in Ca$h 4 TRASH Programs !! Let's socialize the losses like the Socialists we are. Americans should continually be whipped up into BUYING and BORROWING Frenzies to keep the system going like we did this last few years when the Fed & Govt Injected 5 trillion into the economy.
All those Desperate Bank Clients Should Swallow Their Pride and Take The Fed Loans extended to them to cover the unrealized bond losses then they'll have excess funds to lend at higher yields.
Lets wait and see, looking at the long bond yield, oil, metals, commodities, China's exports slowing presumable from lack of demand from the west, Germany in a technical recession, meagre wage inflation yet there is apparently full employment. Inflation created by money printing, but then perpetuated by inflation expectations. The level of corporate price gouging is immense, which in itself shows the "lets make hay while the sun shines mentality" knowing the party wont last forever. it could be argued in an economy with high demand and low supply interest rate hikes has fueled inflation "Gibsons Paradox" simply idk what comes next, because i cant make sense of it, just that full employment and inflation is the last throws of the business cycle and that appears be where its at, i also think the rate hikes are finished and bank credit tightens into lower rates akin to the GFC
Can’t a bank lend a billion dollars to another bank & then that bank lend a billion dollars back ?…ie 2 billion created ? What’s to stop them doing that..apart from trust..
@John Stibal the one will turn into the other, when liquidity crash will turn into a credit crunch, and it will turn soon, not caused by banks profitability but real estate freeze and insolvencies
No he didn't. Anyone who is wringing their hands over "deflation",.. when the government is deficit spending over 5% of GDP and continuing to print money through abysmal and irresponsible fiscal policy in spite of the Fed;s efforts to fight inflation while current CPI is near 5% and growing on TOP of an accumulation of 20 to 50% inflation cemented into the economic fabric over the last 2 years is just batpoopinsane. The Fed doesn't "want us to call it disinflation ,.. rather than deflation",... IT IS DISINFLATOION. Month over month inflation is averaging about 0.3%. Deflation is nowhere on the horizon. If it is ,.. most would welcome it.
Both John and Randy missed Jack's question (which is my question too): If banks create deposits endogenously when they originate loans, how does the reduction of demand deposit liabilities by deposit flight impair their ability to create new money/loans?
Not a banking expert here but a thought that might be in the right direction : banks can create liabilities (loaned deposits) endogenously since it simply exists on their own balance sheet the same way Starbucks might give you rewards points ( an endogenous liability existing only on their own balance sheet ) but with banks the problem occurs when that loaned deposit gets "spent" by the lender on goods/services by some seller who then goes and deposits that check at their bank which as that check clears will end up resulting in bank reserves held in accounts in the federal reserve system being transferred from the originating bank's reserve account to the receiving bank's reserve account. What does this do to the originating bank?, well they lose reserves on which they were receiving the fed interest rate on and at the end of the day the originating bank created an asset ( the loan paying them an interest rate presumably higher than the fed reserve rate) but lost another asset because the funds ultimately got transferred to a different bank in the banking system. This here is where the confusing truth occurs because while MMT and endogenous money is true in that banks effectively create money endogenously through loan origination at the same time it's not "free money" or costless to them in the sense that if the money moves to another bank they will have to end up transferring assets ( bank reserves held at the fed) to other banks. Ultimately the inter bank dynamics is what limits credit and money creation as it is ultimately based on trust and depends on everyone being willing to lend and create money but as soon as a few big actors start pulling back it's like starting to take chairs out of a game of musical chairs eventually when the music stops everyone wants a chair and they will backstab each other and watch out for number one to the detriment of the system as a whole. Yes banks have the ability to create deposits for themselves but not bank reserves which they can only get when depositors bring money into their bank and bank reserves are the special money between banks and the fed which to them is very real indeed.
Risk goes up as asset prices go down and lending tightens. Commercial banks expand .oney supply out of thin air as loans as soa called asset prices go up> and if they go down, collateral is reduced so loa s are reduced. It's all Enron Aurthur Andersen fraud accounting now with no mark to market or real GAAP accounting. Disgusting really.
I was at a retirement seminar and the speaker spoke on how he quit his job after he made well over $950,000 PROFIT within 3months he invested $120,000. i need advise on what strategy to follow.
The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?
@Phil Stones I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started my business. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
@@floxydorathy6611 we’re only just an information away from amassing wealth, I know a lot of folks that made fortunes from the Dotcom crash as well as the 08’ crash and I’ve been looking into similar opportunities in this present market, could this coach that guides yo help?
@@MrGravity304 My Financial Advisor is NICOLE DESIREE SIMON. I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her afterwards. She has since provide entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can run a quick online research with her name if you care for supervision. I basically follow her market moves and haven’t regretted doing so.
@@floxydorathy6611 Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
This bank crisis is so far from being over. Anyone who has been around for longer than 12 years, knows a credit crisis isn't over in two weeks. Makes me laugh seeing folks thinking this was all over so quickly. We are seeing a credit contraction that is gonna lead to a major contraction.
Over the years, I have learnt not to trust corporations. I was badly hit by the '08 financial crisis. Since 2019, I've just been focused on investing through a financial advisor and it has been paying off. No major loss has ever been recorded since 2019 i started. I'm never going back to banks full time.
true, A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for license advisors and came across someone of due diligence, helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to approx. $850k so far.
@@laszlolee I'm intrigued by your experience. Could you possibly recommend a trustworthy advisor you've consulted with?
@@AdamGreene222 renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, “Susan Bauer Normansell” my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
@@laszlolee I discovered her, reached out via email, and arranged a call, anticipating her response. My goal is to commence 2023 on a positive financial trajectory.
As a retired career bank executive, it's refreshing to hear guests that actually understand banking
It's the modern equivalent of reading Tanta and CR 15 years ago.
Understand banking lmao. “All my Clients are hoping the Fed will cut” send all these banks and boomers to zero
So, with the economy being so weird and seemingly getting worse, should I just go get a bunch of credit cards and expect all the banks to collapse? 😂😂
@@qwerty4324ify 😅i😊😢😢😮 it would make an offer DD of any by this Friday ya soon I think that I am out there was some other people at a very short term are a couple weeks to do the work all posts to get back in😮😮
Let's say-> Bring/Force rates to Zero again for another decade to STEAL MORE from Savers Free Market rates and continue Wealth transfering that Tens of Trillions to TOP Asset Bubble Riders, Speculators and debtors. Steal from Savers to save Massive Asset Bubble Riders. This way home prices will double again, buildings and warehouses will double again and the bottom 50% can live in tents. If that Fails>> BAIL OUT BANKSTERS AGAIN and ALL the large property groups and put thier TRASH assets on the Feds Books and give the trash property holders 100 to 120 cents on the dollar in Ca$h 4 TRASH Programs !! Let's socialize the losses like the Socialists we are. Americans should continually be whipped up into BUYING and BORROWING Frenzies to keep the system going like we did this last few years when the Fed & Govt Injected 5 trillion into the economy.
Woodward crying - why can't I lend to completely unproductive borrowers and capture a risk-free spread as credit continues to balloon.
It's over. No refunds.
Glad Randy pointed out the real problem started when rates went to zero. I agree Powell may have raised too fast but Ben and Janet hold a bulk of the blame.
Joseph Wang said that 2022 record lending was what (nearly singlehandedly) stages of a recession while keeping inflation sticky.
That m means the severity of this credit crunch is very fundamentally deflationionary.
I find it fascinahing how cryto prices can fluctuate so drastically in such a short amount of time. It's a testament to the volatility of the market and the unpredictableility of investor sentiment. However, I believe that these fluctuations are simply part of the journey towards mainstream adoption and eventual stabilization. Despite the risks, I remain bullish on the potential of coyptocurrencies to disrupt traditional finance and usher in a new era of decentralized transactions. Recent volatility makes it impossible to predict bullish or bearish trends, and trading success depends on the pattern and signal source. Rebecca Catherine tactics have helped me increase my portfolio by six figures in just a few weeks, and his daily trades provide valuable information beyond just advice
I'm a little bit skeptical about this cause I've lost over $10k trying to make profits by myself in binance
I recently started my trading with expert Mrs Rebecca Catherine and I'm already marveling over the profits she made for me, assuming I met her on time I would've been a Millonair by now
Same here I wish I knew about Mrs Rebecca Catherine on time. She also teaches her investors how to predict and trade on their own and also give access for them to see and also monitor their trades in other for them to understand and know how it's works
Expert Rebecca Catherine is the one managing my trade for months now and I keep on making profits every week
@Wyane Cliff Seeking for her contact info. 👇
This is the most insightful and fascinating interview I’ve watched in a long time. Thank you for the great content. Would love to see these industry insiders again every quarter.
Can someone send these Forward Guidance interviews to the Fed? They need to be hearing this stuff.
I’ve watched a lot of Forward Guidance, and this might be the single best interview ever in terms of understanding the market.
Jack, can you ask your guests to explain the acronyms and industry terms that they constantly use? It would be better if they didn’t use them at all.
So much whining and commiserating about the Fed and how it needs to lower interest rates. The Fed need to keep going higher on rates to (1) get inflation under control and match the Fed Funds rate with the Taylor Rule Model and it's variations and (2) provide a real rate of return of at least 2% for savers. The Fed has been punishing savers and emboldening people to take on debt to live beyond their means and also to speculators for malinvestment. Office properties were overbuilt based on low interest rates. Had the hurdle rates been higher and "normal" - these properites would not have been built. It's going to take years to bring inflation down again. Data from month to month are filled with "noise". Prices are waaaay up for real people and consumers.
Great interview Jack and great guests! Like being a fly-on-the-wall in the boardroom.
Great guest 😊, been following John on LinkedIn for a while provides great charts for data on the loans out in the economy
Guy in the middle keeps making excuses and claiming that "inflation was transitory."
I'm glad Randy mentioned the interview with Vincent David, because the thing that popped into my mind when these guys were talking about this credit crunch wall fast-approaching was Vincent's statement that the fed put is never dead.
If things are even half as bad for the banks as these guys are predicting then the FED hikes are over. If CPI stays hot and the market figures out the FED is done hiking look for gold to take off and set a new all-time record.
You can tell these are sales guys who love to hear themselves talk. The have all of the old tired cliches.
39:50 Yeah we all see lending is pulling back and we all know why. We don't need some simpleton salesman's high school level "circling back to get a good feeling of why loans are pulling back" explanation.
40:04 Now this guy has really shown he'sanidiot.
Anyone who is wringing their hands over "deflation",.. when the government is deficit spending over 5% of GDP and continuing to print money through abysmal and irresponsible fiscal policy in spite of the Fed;s efforts to fight inflation while current CPI is near 5% and growing on TOP of an accumulation of 20 to 50% inflation cemented into the economic fabric over the last 2 years is just batpoopinsane.
The Fed doesn't "want us to call it disinflation ,.. rather than deflation",... IT IS DISINFLATOIONmoron.
Month over month inflation is averaging about 0.3%. Deflation is nowhere on the horizon. If it is ,.. most would welcome it.
1:10:12 Good question Jack,.. but this went over their heads. You were asking about banks that had made floating rate loans. They should be ok.
He BS'ed and started talking about residetnial fixed,.. because he had no clue how to respond. I mean he couldN'T just say,.. "good question,.. I don't have thecurrent info on that"... He had to try to bullsheet his way through,
GREAT POINTS!! Indeed indeed
Welcome to banking.
Excellent. Both phenomenal guests.
These dudes know their stuff.
> so many of our customers are desperate for the pivot
hope they hold it high until all these zirp waste of space gamblers go bust
Banks print money, the fed prints reserves.
Jack - great interview. Thanks for asking Harley Bassman's question about why banks didn't hedge without mentioning Harley by name!
Credit score do not determine mortgage volume or housing prices - it's the borrower pool's of debt to income. When interest rates rise borrower's (with their same fico score) must now buy less (cheaper) house because their monthly mortgage payment remains the same. This is where housing prices start falling because higher interest rates reduce the pool of potential buyers. This lag can be as little as a quarter to a couple years but eventually supply and demand find a happy medium at the buyer pool's monthly payment. Don't liquidate MBS with 2-4% interest rates - those will be guaranteed money.
One of the best episodes of FG I recall. Added a lot of detail and clarified many points after the March regional banking issues. Well done and thanks, gents. Would appreciate a repeat convo in a few months.
Interesting, learned a few new things, very helpful.
Thank you for showing how predatory, and willing to admit it, these guys are.
Credit is tightening?😂…getting a mortgage Very easy. Didn’t Rocket just announce 1% down payment loans?😂
Question-What is this math thing you speak of?
Whatever microphone John is using, you should send that to all your guests. Sometimes your podcasts are unlistenable because they use the computer microphone.
Money isn't really created when banks make a loan. I used to think so too. Actually money is created when Congress does deficit spending. The Fed's only role is setting interest rates by the amount of QE it does.
buy long treasuries, buy gold, lie flat. Got it.
I second Peters comment to you Tom for being there for all of us to hear the flip side of Wall Street and mainstream media…. Regards
Hehe
The irony is that the rapid fed fund rates hikes likely has absolutely no impact on current or future CPI.
God his promo asides are so annoying.
NK and Roll-ups 😂
Fantastic intervieuw. Great. Thank you 🙏
Great job Jack. One of the most insightful interviews at this most appropriate time. Thx
Another great interview Jack. These guys message is a little scary. Lending coming to a screeching halt.
Brilliant. This guy says the quiet part out loud.
2009 area of time and yes, Wall Street mortgage abuse… Credit Crunch … reminds of when I had a non-used line of credit for 100k and received letter that it was no longer available/permanently closed. Currently I have a 5 figure credit card with little on it…. Will I recv a letter on that account?
More bears that are wrong!
Excellent
Great guests. So good to listen to people who know what they are talking about !
Let's say-> Bring/Force rates to Zero again for another decade to STEAL MORE from Savers Free Market rates and continue Wealth transfering that Tens of Trillions to TOP Asset Bubble Riders, Speculators and debtors. Steal from Savers to save Massive Asset Bubble Riders. This way home prices will double again, buildings and warehouses will double again and the bottom 50% can live in tents. If that Fails>> BAIL OUT BANKSTERS AGAIN and ALL the large property groups and put thier TRASH assets on the Feds Books and give the trash property holders 100 to 120 cents on the dollar in Ca$h 4 TRASH Programs !! Let's socialize the losses like the Socialists we are. Americans should continually be whipped up into BUYING and BORROWING Frenzies to keep the system going like we did this last few years when the Fed & Govt Injected 5 trillion into the economy.
So Leverage is shrinking, Commercial Prop Values Declining and Loan Losses will Go Up. Finally Free Wheeling Private Equity having To Pay Up!
Excellent Interview @Jack
Just the beginning of a category 5 hurricane that we have seen so far in the banking industry. Greetings from Sweden.
Are Loan Loss Reserves Going Up Significantly during Q3 and Q4 2023?
All those Desperate Bank Clients Should Swallow Their Pride and Take The Fed Loans extended to them to cover the unrealized bond losses then they'll have excess funds to lend at higher yields.
So which States are going to have the Best Short Opps on Regional Banks? CA, NY, 1 & 2, NJ, IL?
You are doing good. Banks loan 10 to 1.
Was it just a bad nightmare or did Powell say that 2 Million Jobs Cuts have to happen to break Inflation? If so, he will not stop raising rates.
Powell the dove is already done raising rates. Where is the big qt and mbs sales?…….🦗
Lets wait and see, looking at the long bond yield, oil, metals, commodities, China's exports slowing presumable from lack of demand from the west, Germany in a technical recession, meagre wage inflation yet there is apparently full employment. Inflation created by money printing, but then perpetuated by inflation expectations. The level of corporate price gouging is immense, which in itself shows the "lets make hay while the sun shines mentality" knowing the party wont last forever. it could be argued in an economy with high demand and low supply interest rate hikes has fueled inflation "Gibsons Paradox" simply idk what comes next, because i cant make sense of it, just that full employment and inflation is the last throws of the business cycle and that appears be where its at, i also think the rate hikes are finished and bank credit tightens into lower rates akin to the GFC
Can’t a bank lend a billion dollars to another bank & then that bank lend a billion dollars back ?…ie 2 billion created ? What’s to stop them doing that..apart from trust..
Nice work Jack. This was a great interview.
Does The Fed publicly publish the list of Banks they're lending to that covers their bond losses?
The credit crunch is already here for investment RE. It will get tighter as the full impact of higher rates impacts renewing loans.
Great explanation on what's going on with the US banking right now. Thank you guys👏
I work on a network help desk. This is a great insight to stuff I never work on. Loved it. Thank you for doing this.
Fantastic
this was an AMAZING discussion/informative interview!
My company is debt free and has more than 50% of it's cash in Bitcoin 😂. Be your own bank! I ❤ it.
WELL DONE!! Same 🙌🏽👍🏽
Having a solid financial plan is crucial to ensuring a stable future.
Another excellent podcast Jack. Very informative
Great investment of 80 mins. Thank you.
Brilliant interview!
Thank you gentlemen
Great content! Keep up the good work!
All time great episode, please invite them back to dissect q2 bank performances
The guest made a great point about disinflation vs deflation.
@John Stibal the one will turn into the other, when liquidity crash will turn into a credit crunch, and it will turn soon, not caused by banks profitability but real estate freeze and insolvencies
No he didn't.
Anyone who is wringing their hands over "deflation",.. when the government is deficit spending over 5% of GDP and continuing to print money through abysmal and irresponsible fiscal policy in spite of the Fed;s efforts to fight inflation while current CPI is near 5% and growing on TOP of an accumulation of 20 to 50% inflation cemented into the economic fabric over the last 2 years is just batpoopinsane.
The Fed doesn't "want us to call it disinflation ,.. rather than deflation",... IT IS DISINFLATOION.
Month over month inflation is averaging about 0.3%. Deflation is nowhere on the horizon. If it is ,.. most would welcome it.
TLT
Banks don't run out of cash. They just print more electronically!
Both John and Randy missed Jack's question (which is my question too): If banks create deposits endogenously when they originate loans, how does the reduction of demand deposit liabilities by deposit flight impair their ability to create new money/loans?
Not a banking expert here but a thought that might be in the right direction : banks can create liabilities (loaned deposits) endogenously since it simply exists on their own balance sheet the same way Starbucks might give you rewards points ( an endogenous liability existing only on their own balance sheet ) but with banks the problem occurs when that loaned deposit gets "spent" by the lender on goods/services by some seller who then goes and deposits that check at their bank which as that check clears will end up resulting in bank reserves held in accounts in the federal reserve system being transferred from the originating bank's reserve account to the receiving bank's reserve account. What does this do to the originating bank?, well they lose reserves on which they were receiving the fed interest rate on and at the end of the day the originating bank created an asset ( the loan paying them an interest rate presumably higher than the fed reserve rate) but lost another asset because the funds ultimately got transferred to a different bank in the banking system. This here is where the confusing truth occurs because while MMT and endogenous money is true in that banks effectively create money endogenously through loan origination at the same time it's not "free money" or costless to them in the sense that if the money moves to another bank they will have to end up transferring assets ( bank reserves held at the fed) to other banks. Ultimately the inter bank dynamics is what limits credit and money creation as it is ultimately based on trust and depends on everyone being willing to lend and create money but as soon as a few big actors start pulling back it's like starting to take chairs out of a game of musical chairs eventually when the music stops everyone wants a chair and they will backstab each other and watch out for number one to the detriment of the system as a whole. Yes banks have the ability to create deposits for themselves but not bank reserves which they can only get when depositors bring money into their bank and bank reserves are the special money between banks and the fed which to them is very real indeed.
Risk goes up as asset prices go down and lending tightens.
Commercial banks expand .oney supply out of thin air as loans as soa called asset prices go up> and if they go down, collateral is reduced so loa s are reduced.
It's all Enron Aurthur Andersen fraud accounting now with no mark to market or real GAAP accounting. Disgusting really.
banks need to hold a minimum amount of capital relative to their loans and other assets due to risk-weighted asset (rwa) regulation
@@briancrowley1287 No Sir, we are down to a ZERO Reserve status now on banks.
Look up Basel III
Excellent discussion
Thanks!
Excelent Jack‼
I was at a retirement seminar and the speaker spoke on how he quit his job after he made well over $950,000 PROFIT within 3months he invested $120,000. i need advise on what strategy to follow.
@rub tyson Please do you mind sharing any means of reaching out to him easily? I'm really interested
He’s lying to you
This one was a tough listen in the car with the variety of levels and clarities amongst the speakers.