I am very excited to say we are nearly done with the edits of Car Trek 5. We will have some previews over the next couple weeks and the series will release on Freddy's channel around the beginning of September.
Ed explains state of the economy better then the FED market notes. Plus throws in physiology of a segment of society. YOLO effect is interesting. Now comes the hangover.
YOLO effect makes a lot of sense. Sooner or later the bubble will burst, probably not anytime soon. And yes people are bored and restless and spending irrational amounts on cars. But let's face it the buyers of exotic and rare cars aren't getting in over their heads. It's f*** you money in a nutshell. I said this over and over but outrageous prices people are paying is part of the appeal who buy them, probably more so the ones that aren't car fanatics but have the means to pay whatever they want on them.
@@danm3359 uhh I wouldn't say that people get in over there head on exotic cars all the time. You see it all the time with music artists and that trickles down to more "regular people" as well. You get someone who thinks they are about to get that promotion or who all of a sudden gets hit to there income they weren't expecting or a particular investment just didn't go the way they were expecting and boom they can't pay any longer.
One good example would be the E30 BMW. With the exception of the M3, 95% of them are going to be a 318/325i, is, es, or e designation. Then there's that 5% of the owners that have just a plain old 325 with no letters behind it who get rid of their car because they have a hard time sourcing parts for it. Every parts book calls for every variation of a 325 except the 325 without a letter designation behind it.
@@alexandrecouture2462 in my side of the pond the Sovereign XJ6 it's not that rare. Found a couple of 1991 for sale in my city right away just googling it.
The “boredom” comment nailed me - and I didn’t even recognize it while it happened. We’ve been stuck at home for a long while and I decided to upgrade my car during all of this, and was able to realize some unexpected appreciation on my old vehicle. It made the new purchase quite easy to rationalize.
This is exactly what happened to the scale plastic model industry. People bored at home now in their 30 and 40 with nothing to do have gone back to a simple inexpensive hobby they enjoyed as a kid but had not had the time to enjoy as busy adults.
@@Killsnapz haha I never really thought about that. I'm exactly in that demographic and was a blink of an eye from buying a few hundred dollar RC airplane kit last year. I'm just an incredible tight wad, and that no fun part of my brain kicked in at the last second saying, "You don't need that".
Its a time as a RUclips creator i have to think twice about what cars I am emotionally attached to and which cars I would rather have a pile of money out of
@@king0kingz529 you might love something you've owned for a while, but want something new. Doesnt mean you didnt love it while you had it! I sold a car I loved due to circumstance. Plenty of things can happen
@@austinwrighteous I have a 95 rusty chevy burb but I'll never get rid of it until the thing is rusted to far. I dont think I will ever buy a new car or truck fuck that
I think it’s disappointing how disconnected Ed is from the reality of people not benefiting from inequality and wealth redistribution. Specifically? The stock market is not the economy. People not paying rent aren’t likely in a position to impact the exotic or enthusiast car market. Small business owners spending PPP loans on anything other than their employees need to be prosecuted. I love what you do Ed and agree with most of your analysis here but your bias and privilege is showing badly.
I can completely agree with everything Ed is saying on the EXOTIC market. The average used car market, however? Yeah, that's a bubble popping in the coming years.
I think certain collector cars that aren't exactly exotics are still undervalued. 90s cars mostly, pre-emmisions, when an engine was an engine and not a rats nest.
Maybe but its driven by inflation caused by the govt adding $5 Trillion to the money pool and soon they'll add another $4-5 trillion. This is causing inflation. It isn't a bubble its a repricing of the dollar
This is specifically why I subscribed to vinwiki as to any other car channel. They go into the financial aspect of owning cars and sees it as what it really is instead of some other channels which are blinded by their passion or at least pretend to be. And ed Bolian with his incredible storytelling and summarizing skills!
Ed, exactly this time last year. I commented on one of your videos thanking you for recommending Woodside credit and Auto-tempest to find a smoking deal on a 2007 Lotus Exige. I sold that car two weeks ago to a guy in Atlanta for a 50% profit including tax and fees. Its yellow with Carbon lotus factory seats. Im sure you will see it around town. Thanks again!
Great explanation Ed! I have curtailed my Wheeler Dealer activities because I don't want to buy a fixer for ridiculous $$$ only to have it crash to 2/3 what it was worth when I bought it. So I have been helping my friends sell their cars. Make no mistake, the crash will come and when it does it will be hard. The YOLO crowd will bail quickly.
All corvettes have sky rocketed , it’s ridiculous, I currently own a c7 z51 , purchased before the spike , paid 41k for it and now I can sell it for easily 50-53k which is crazy to me
Always appreciate an Ed segment that helps explain where others make it more confusing. Most of all, I feel he's credible. Thanks for the wisdom and can't wait for CarTrek 5 😁
Ed, I would be interested in hearing this same discussion about 'normal" cars. I am a mechanic and we are seeing people happily paying exorbitant repair bills, because the prices for regular cars has gone through the roof. Cases where we try to "sell out" a job and encourage a customer to get rid of a car, they pay the bill instead and do everything...
But the fact is it helped a lot more than just the 1% helped the top 10-15%. They created more 401k millionaires in the last year than existed before. We all know 1%ers. They obviously love this. But we also know upper middle class. They probably went from a net worth of around or under a million to probably $2 million
It wasn't just high dollar items. All collectibles from 80s action figures, hot wheels cars, magic cards, every hard asset went up starting around May 2020.
"When people get bored, they spend money" This is very apparent in the retro games market. Games that would give for 5 or 10 dollars before covid are going fir 70 or 80 now. Its insane.
Another factor worth noting- in many countries you don't have to pay capital gains tax on profit from the sale of a car. Classic/exotic cars are increasingly an international market (has been for ages at the highest end), so everyone faces higher costs because of the people able to use cars as tax shelters.
"The bubble will not burst" ...??? I remember very well when I turned 18 yrs and got my driver license (in 1986). Round about at that time the market for Ferraris went crazy. It has started with the 1984 Ferrari 288 GTO (price when new: 275k D-Mark) for 600k D-Mark in 1985/86. And then from 1986 to 1989 the values even for a Testarossa (still in production at that time) got higher and higher. In 1989/1990 a brand new Testarossa has cost 225k D-Mark (here in Germany), and only 1 day after the delivery you was able to sell that Testarossa for up to 550k D-Mark! It went totally nuts when Enzo died. Every Ferrari - even the 2nd hand cars in very poor condition and also the very unpopular models - easily doubled their values literally "over night". In 1990 a Ferrari F40 was public auctioned and with over 1 mio D-Mark it broke the record. That was round about 150% over sticker; for a car was has been built in a number more than 1.000 units! The 3 (!) main reasons for that "car value bubble" in the late 1980s were (1.) the japanese Yen. In the early 1980s the Yen - in relation to the US-Dollar - was very attractive. In just a few years the Yen went so powerful, that in the mid 1980s you could buy exotic cars for just "half the price" when paying with your Yen. And therefore near to 80% of the exotic cars in the world wide market were sold for big money and went to Japan. The "demand and supply" for a Ferrari 288 GTO and (very short later) for the F40 were (2. reason) out of balance, and "investors" have paid every price to get involved into that game. And (3.) at the end of the 1980s Enzo died. That's why the values for Ferraris (and it has even affected the values of other exotic car brands) were on the peak in 1990/91. But then in late 1991 / early 1992 the game was over. The true and serious collectors had already stuffed their collections and kept these cars for decades, and the investors have stuffed their warehouses and showrooms and couldn't sell without losing serious money. In the mid 1990s you could buy exactly the same cars for only 25% of their ex-values just 5 year later! In the mid 1990s the investors switched from cars to the new economy in the stock market. The beginning of the "dot com" bubble. At that time many of "fresh restored" Ferraris entered the market for just a fraction of the costs. Of course on one hand nowadays we have more rich millionaires in this world than in the 1980s/90s. But on the other hand we have more Ferraris and Lamborghinis and Paganis and McLarens on the market than ever before. Even the very rare - and damn expensive - exotics like a 275 GTB, 250 SWB, Miura, Countach, are "available" relatively quick and easy. That's a fact! Only 5 years ago you could have told your costumer that the value for his Dino 246 GT or Daytona has increased 100k, and he just smiled. Today you can tell him that the value decreased 100k, and he won't believe you and keep his car till the cows come home, or till he can sell it totally overpriced on Bring a Trailer - the world's biggest community of car flippers and keyboard experts - to a stupid but wealthy "enthusiast". Just my personal opinion.
You hit every single point. I recently bought a R35 and became apart of that community and seen people trying to buy it and people always say to wait for the "bubble" to pop. It won't NA cars are on the way out and high-performance cars from volume brands (NSX,GTR,LFA) aren't exactly going to be rushed back into production. So your advice is perfect. If you want one, get one, and stop talking about what the prices were a year ago.
They will do back down, you’d have to be delusional to think they won’t. In 2-3 years not only will prices be “normal”, they will have depreciated more.
it's definitely not just exotics. One of my racing league buddies sold his '15 Grand Caravan to that 'vana online dealer for $3k over book ($18k on a $15k KBB value) His Grand Caravan showed up on the 'vana site for Hannibal, MO about a week later, and 'vana made about $5000 ($23k) on the sale to a new owner a week after that...
As far as the chip shortage goes, I managed to get out of my 2020 F150 hardly losing $1500 for a year of ownership. I shrewdly negotiated a replacement vehicle for $5000 and I’m spending the savings on a long time goal of mine to build a Factory Five Cobra (YOLO)! I’m not treating it as an investment, just found a path to the vehicle I always wanted
Finally the early Viper is getting due...multiple Lemans Class winner, World Sportscar Championship sweep etc. And such a badass piece of analog Americana
Glad there are so many responsible people out there in the world buying vehicles instead of paying their mortgage or rent.... way to be responsible world...
I feel one of the worst offenders is the new G63, my mom was looking to get one and most of them were over msrp by $70-100k, some with over 5k miles and less than a year old. The G63 is cool but not worth $225k+. The highest increase I found was a G63 Magno Red Edition, msrp around $200k, the dealer was asking $330k...
The RV market went up, so much that in 1 month time I traded key for key a 1986 RV for a 2016 RV worth over 50k I use to be homeless and I started to buy and sell old vans while living in them, havent had a real job in 8 years
Hey Ed, turns out youtuber and hedge fund manager Patrick Boyle is a fan of yours. Maybe he will have some insights into what is behind the current economic climate
I had been trying to buy a Ram Trx for a few months and found some dealers asking 25k above sticker. I finally found a good dealer after calling several states and just had to order one. Now i wait but i wasn't paying a ridiculous markup.
Yolo affects is 100% the reason why my age group ( millennials) are spending a fortune on our dream cars. See, we’ve seen countless times all these old guys with bad backs yell at us to “ work hard, so that when you get my age, you can retire and buy all the stuff you ever wanted “ Yeah, No. We aren’t going to wait until we are 68, fat and bones aching to buy our dream cars and not be able to fully enjoy them. I’m 36 years old and I just bought my dream car which is an R34 Nissan Skyline GTR. I’m going to enjoy my car NOW at the strong age of 36 rather than being old and tired. Times are changing, friends!
Prices are sky rocking, I'm into classic cars and the market is just ridiculous for anything 1972 or older, even the cars nobody wanted are becoming expensive
Damn. That was the most interesting Ed Bolian video I've ever seen. (OK, except anything that has to do with Cannonball). I would enjoy more market analysis and discussion. Especially from the perspective of: Buying driver cars with the hope of retaining value while enjoying. Thx for the insights Ed.
I have been referring to the phenomenon as "Covid Crazy". As a buyer i saw motorcycles, Dirt bikes, ATVs, Snowmobiles and Jet skis became unavailable both new and used. Facebook marketplace was crazy. Prices went up quickly.
I’ve studied the R8 market for years while saving to put down on one. Wanted a gen 1 but prices skyrocketed to gen 2 prices. I saw gen 2’s going up as well so I jumped on a low mileage example 25k below book value. Not regretting it one bit!
Definitely agree on that last part, if you buy something you know you will enjoy and put miles on, you can never lose out, I opted to get a higher mileage MK4 Supra for that exact reason, never plan to sell it and just wanted the car not the investment, that's why I when people see that I have almost a quarter million miles on mine and I drove it 40k miles and the last 5 months, I'm glad I didn't buy a low mileage example for That exact reason
Cruising the coast car show coming up in a few months here in Mississippi, I always hope to see a few exotics, I remember the first year I went there were two young guys driving a new GTR and completely tore the front bumper off of it on it on a parking divider
This is absolutely happening. So many 40 year old guys are buying their childhood dream cars. Let's just say there's never a shortage for a friday afternoon cruise nowadays. And yes, I could easily flip my mk4 supra, but that will never happen... ever...
Well that explains it. Dealers are buying literally EVERYTHING. 2008 lexus RX350 with 300,000 miles i saw yesterday as ive been looking for one. Asking price: $12,000.
Bought my Infiniti G37 coupe (6mt) with 82K miles in February of 2020! Car now sits at 95K & the value has increased by 30-40% in its condition. COVID definitely affected the used/lower car market too!
The only other major factor I would add is the extremely fast shift towards electric cars. For a guy like me, I have zero interest in electric. I obsess over an NA car with a manual shift, hence why I lean heavy towards classics although I've also owned many exotics. I believe there is a "panic" of sorts to pick up NA cars with the expectation of a future without new NA cars being produced, at all or very few. Thoughts?
I played the selling used vehicles. Made lots of money. Paid off debts. Then bought a Harley road glide special. Not a Lamborghini but it’s my dream motorcycle. Never thought I’d ever be able to buy one.
Not an exotic, but I bought a bucket list car 2.5 years ago. In the past 12 months the value has more than doubled. I've put close to 35000 miles on it in that time. Definitely winning.
Funny thing is this has creeped into all cars. From shit boxes, to daily drivers, to classic muscle cars, everything is up. I was looking for a cheep car to do track day events. Figured a Cobalt SS. Those were just about free a couple years ago. Now they are way more than I'd be willing to pay for way rougher cars than I'd like. Plus for me is if I decided to sell my LeMans, I would actually get everything I have into it back and maybe make a couple bucks to boot.
I'll tell you why: David Gooding, around a decade ago, saw Charlie Ross on Flog It, Bargain Hunt and Antiques Road Trip on BBC TV... and decided he absolutely had to hire him. Charlie is a tremendous character and the best auctioneer on the planet.
IMO, a lot of it is because so many other asset classes are so expensive, people are just looking to park their money elsewhere. There's also likely some FOMO happening (i.e., people seeing prices going out and assuming they need to get involved now lest they miss up, creating a feedback loop). Not complaining: My LP570-4 Gallardo Superleggera has gone up :)
Superleggera’s and squadra corsa’s were the best bargain low production supercars the past few years, not sure how much they’re going for now. Pretty reliable for the most part too I’m assuming.
3 weeks late to the party. Wanted to leave my two cents. I bought a Focus RS with 10,500 miles on it October 10th, 2019 for $31,500. Fast forward to today and it now has 36,600 miles on it and valued in a private sale at around $38,500. Triple the mileage and up $7,000 ish. I'd say this is a unique example, however, it really applies to cars that are a trim level that aren't normally purchased and made for only a few years/made few amounts of them.
I think you're on the right track. Only it's more like they invented a minor virus and used it as a tool to brainwash the world population into supporting the largest ponzi scheme ever perpetrated in the history of the world.
My buddy's company last year laid off everyone, and brought back only a skeleton crew, and cancelled bonuses. BUT they had LOTS of money to renovate their American corporate HQ's top floor (where the President's office is)
It's happened even with lower end sports cars my wife's corvette we bought right after the pandemic started has gone up 10k in value. I think it's also influenced by the delayed release of the c8.
Great analysis, Ed! Would like to hear your thoughts on the Porsche 996 market. Prices are up almost 40% and the hatred of them seems to be waning in recent years.
Awesome video, Ed!! I have a particular dream car I’ve been lusting after for years, and I just know that waiting until the time is right, and I’m not going to push it before that. And everyone should be able to appreciate that, as a car lover, waiting until the time is makes sense!
There are always two economic games at play that determine pricing. One, are indirect market forces like futures speculation. Bets are placed on commodities like food, lumber, steel, oil, etc., and when those bets come due, the prices that we pay rise or fall based on the winners and losers. The price we pay at the gas pump is an obvious example. The second, is direct market forces. If people en-masse are suddenly willing to pay more for a product (for any reason) the price will be adjusted upward until it meets a certain level of resistance. The futures scenario leads to quick and noticeable price swings. The second scenario leads to slower less frequent and less extreme swings but generally, overall prices never return to previous levels. Exotic cars aside if you’re holding off on buying (insert normal car here) because you think the post-pandemic price hikes are temporary, you’ll be waiting a very long time for something that in all probability isn’t going to happen.
The new Countach from Lamborghini for 3 million dollars is not being sold to car enthusiasts, but as an "Investment" at this point. Exotic cars were always to show off and show wealth, but they were still meant to be driven. The car exotic car industry has changed to making cars for Instagram and people wanting to flex their wealth on others. I honestly wonder what Lamborghini or Ferrari would think about their companies today.
When there are no new production issues there will be no crazy used prices. By 2023 people will realize they overpaid and will be upside down on the car by a lot.
If brands such as ferrari and lamborghini reveal and start producing their hybrid successor cars to the aventador and huracan for example, I feel like the non-hybrid aventador and huracans will not drastically change in value and will remain at their values they are currently
You're very naive. There arent production issues. At least not enough to cause the issues we're seeing. The same number of cars are hitting lots, its just people now have so much money cars fly off the lots.
@@AccountsAndGp possibly but it'll help with holding value. No matter what people will prefer V8s to some bullshit 4 cylinder hybrid. There is a reason why 458s are more than 488s and the 488 still has a v8! Once they kill cylinders it'll be worse
The market is like a rubber band, the farther you stretch it, the more it will kick back later once the driving force is gone, eventually depreciation will hit automobiles much harder than we've seen in a while.
I bought a 1995 z28 camaro! A dream car of mine with t tops for about 3500 under the current market normal in my area. But it’s my dream car so I’m gonna hang on to it for as long as I can
Ed forgot the cheap money aspect. The fed loaning money to banks at zero percent which intern allows them to give loans at incredibly cheap rates. Other than that on point.
@@alexanderjiang2941 yeah I know about those, im talking about brand new release from the dealer not cars that are a few years or more old. Still crazy though
It’s interesting to think about the possibilities to why the car market would increase. It probably comes down to peoples spending and budgeting. If we were all stuck inside because of the pandemic. All the people that go out and spend money normally were saving money. Because almost no matter what you spend your money on, if you can’t go out and spend it, then your forced to save. Effecting the market because more people have money for cars. Also if there’s a shortage of new cars, then the used market gets a jump. But once there is new supply of cars. The used market will drop. It all comes down to supply and demand.
I am very excited to say we are nearly done with the edits of Car Trek 5. We will have some previews over the next couple weeks and the series will release on Freddy's channel around the beginning of September.
I really thought it was spam account
@@megacharzard10gameing79 same
Holy hell am I excited to see the F1 that you bought.
Yo Ed, can you get post on this channel as well?
Can you link Freddy’s channel pls?
Ed explains state of the economy better then the FED market notes. Plus throws in physiology of a segment of society. YOLO effect is interesting. Now comes the hangover.
YOLO effect makes a lot of sense. Sooner or later the bubble will burst, probably not anytime soon. And yes people are bored and restless and spending irrational amounts on cars. But let's face it the buyers of exotic and rare cars aren't getting in over their heads. It's f*** you money in a nutshell. I said this over and over but outrageous prices people are paying is part of the appeal who buy them, probably more so the ones that aren't car fanatics but have the means to pay whatever they want on them.
@@danm3359 uhh I wouldn't say that people get in over there head on exotic cars all the time. You see it all the time with music artists and that trickles down to more "regular people" as well. You get someone who thinks they are about to get that promotion or who all of a sudden gets hit to there income they weren't expecting or a particular investment just didn't go the way they were expecting and boom they can't pay any longer.
@@danm3359 It is called the crack up boom. Check out Mises
"Some cars are rare because nobody wants them".... I felt that one 🤣
I bought an old Jag for a really great price! 1991 Sovereign XJ6. Nobody wants it, so it is better, it will not be stolen, and it is a joy to drive!
One good example would be the E30 BMW. With the exception of the M3, 95% of them are going to be a 318/325i, is, es, or e designation. Then there's that 5% of the owners that have just a plain old 325 with no letters behind it who get rid of their car because they have a hard time sourcing parts for it. Every parts book calls for every variation of a 325 except the 325 without a letter designation behind it.
@@alexandrecouture2462 in my side of the pond the Sovereign XJ6 it's not that rare. Found a couple of 1991 for sale in my city right away just googling it.
@A Z read his comment again, he's talking about the 325 with no letter
Unfortunately, my father's 1977 Matador station wagon fell into that category
"Buy the car you love" - 100% accurate and excellent advice.
and drive it
The “boredom” comment nailed me - and I didn’t even recognize it while it happened. We’ve been stuck at home for a long while and I decided to upgrade my car during all of this, and was able to realize some unexpected appreciation on my old vehicle. It made the new purchase quite easy to rationalize.
This is exactly what happened to the scale plastic model industry. People bored at home now in their 30 and 40 with nothing to do have gone back to a simple inexpensive hobby they enjoyed as a kid but had not had the time to enjoy as busy adults.
@@Killsnapz haha I never really thought about that. I'm exactly in that demographic and was a blink of an eye from buying a few hundred dollar RC airplane kit last year. I'm just an incredible tight wad, and that no fun part of my brain kicked in at the last second saying, "You don't need that".
what did you upgrade to and sell off?
@@mikeo8524 Sold an i3. Will miss my carbon fiber go-cart, but quite happy with the Model Y that replaced it. Already put 5,000 miles on it.
I now have FOUR new cars. I'm there.
Is a Tacoma an exotic car? Because the way their owners price them you would think they were.
I don’t get why. They are shitty trucks.
Here in Australia I sold a second hand equivalent (4-door 4x4 Toyota Hilux) for 20% more this year than I paid in 2020.
There is a high demand for them and it’s like Jeep’s and corvettes. Everyone believes theirs is worth more than it actually is
If they didn't sell, they would have lower prices
@@FishFind3000 Toyota makes one of the best if not the best pickup trucks out there, don't know what you're on man
Crazy what happens when you won't let rich ppl spend on travel
Its a time as a RUclips creator i have to think twice about what cars I am emotionally attached to and which cars I would rather have a pile of money out of
TFW you can put an actual numeric dollar amount to your emotions.
Bro the fuck lol money wont make you happy but having that car that your emotionally attached to can very well increase your happiness
@@king0kingz529 you might love something you've owned for a while, but want something new. Doesnt mean you didnt love it while you had it! I sold a car I loved due to circumstance. Plenty of things can happen
@@austinwrighteous I have a 95 rusty chevy burb but I'll never get rid of it until the thing is rusted to far. I dont think I will ever buy a new car or truck fuck that
On the plus side, you're mostly selling BMWs so it just takes one taxi company and you can sell them all.
It's wonderful to enjoy Prof. Bolian explaining why I can never afford anything interesting , Cest la Vie!
What do you think? Is it a bubble ready to burst?
I hope it is.
Yee
I think it’s disappointing how disconnected Ed is from the reality of people not benefiting from inequality and wealth redistribution. Specifically? The stock market is not the economy. People not paying rent aren’t likely in a position to impact the exotic or enthusiast car market. Small business owners spending PPP loans on anything other than their employees need to be prosecuted. I love what you do Ed and agree with most of your analysis here but your bias and privilege is showing badly.
Absolutely
Problem at that point will be securing financing, even if you have the income.
I can completely agree with everything Ed is saying on the EXOTIC market.
The average used car market, however? Yeah, that's a bubble popping in the coming years.
I think certain collector cars that aren't exactly exotics are still undervalued. 90s cars mostly, pre-emmisions, when an engine was an engine and not a rats nest.
Maybe but its driven by inflation caused by the govt adding $5 Trillion to the money pool and soon they'll add another $4-5 trillion. This is causing inflation. It isn't a bubble its a repricing of the dollar
Seriously love this channel and what Ed bolian does with this channel and with cars in general
This is specifically why I subscribed to vinwiki as to any other car channel.
They go into the financial aspect of owning cars and sees it as what it really is instead of some other channels which are blinded by their passion or at least pretend to be.
And ed Bolian with his incredible storytelling and summarizing skills!
Ed, exactly this time last year. I commented on one of your videos thanking you for recommending Woodside credit and Auto-tempest to find a smoking deal on a 2007 Lotus Exige. I sold that car two weeks ago to a guy in Atlanta for a 50% profit including tax and fees. Its yellow with Carbon lotus factory seats. Im sure you will see it around town. Thanks again!
Great explanation Ed! I have curtailed my Wheeler Dealer activities because I don't want to buy a fixer for ridiculous $$$ only to have it crash to 2/3 what it was worth when I bought it. So I have been helping my friends sell their cars. Make no mistake, the crash will come and when it does it will be hard. The YOLO crowd will bail quickly.
I bought a C5 Corvette few months into Covid. I was surprised to see on average the value rise up by $3k on most examples
All corvettes have sky rocketed , it’s ridiculous, I currently own a c7 z51 , purchased before the spike , paid 41k for it and now I can sell it for easily 50-53k which is crazy to me
@@zhale_f82 Ditto on my C6 Z51 before Covid. Low miles for $23k. HArd to touch them below $30k now.
My dad also bought one last spring. Sold it this week for the exact same money with 15k additional mileage
Always appreciate an Ed segment that helps explain where others make it more confusing. Most of all, I feel he's credible. Thanks for the wisdom and can't wait for CarTrek 5 😁
High S&P does not absolutely mean a strong economy
Ed, I would be interested in hearing this same discussion about 'normal" cars. I am a mechanic and we are seeing people happily paying exorbitant repair bills, because the prices for regular cars has gone through the roof. Cases where we try to "sell out" a job and encourage a customer to get rid of a car, they pay the bill instead and do everything...
Maybe cuase the car I'd paid off or they dont have the resources to obtain another car.
I'd rather keep my 2003 CRV well maintained than put myself in crippling debt for the next 10 years 😥
Fed pumping about $7t into markets kinda boosted the top 1%
Exactly.
Yes, BUT the 1% is only a small piece of all the car buying insanity
Because money always trickles up. Not down.
But the fact is it helped a lot more than just the 1% helped the top 10-15%. They created more 401k millionaires in the last year than existed before. We all know 1%ers. They obviously love this. But we also know upper middle class. They probably went from a net worth of around or under a million to probably $2 million
It wasn't just high dollar items. All collectibles from 80s action figures, hot wheels cars, magic cards, every hard asset went up starting around May 2020.
I can't speak for the other stuff, but the magic economy has always been wild
Leave it to John Temerian to identify the current market situation as the "YOLO Trend". Perfect.
I really like Ed's occasional break from car videos to explain his thoughts on the market or the economy, from a car industry point of view
"When people get bored, they spend money"
This is very apparent in the retro games market. Games that would give for 5 or 10 dollars before covid are going fir 70 or 80 now. Its insane.
Appreciate the reminder. I should move some of my NES, SNES, N64 games I collected years ago.
@@touringteg ya, I've been putting up my backlog of yardsale finds this summer and let's just say I'm getting into the 4 digits as far as profit goes.
@@Zekana0 Where have you been selling games? FB marketplace?
@@touringteg ebay mostly.
@@Zekana0 Thanks! I see hot wheels are crazy on there too.
The moment the fed announce stimulus my heart sank as I knew some of the cars that were getting close to my budget skyrocketed in price.
Well put!
"Buy what you want" - well said!
Another factor worth noting- in many countries you don't have to pay capital gains tax on profit from the sale of a car. Classic/exotic cars are increasingly an international market (has been for ages at the highest end), so everyone faces higher costs because of the people able to use cars as tax shelters.
"The bubble will not burst" ...???
I remember very well when I turned 18 yrs and got my driver license (in 1986). Round about at that time the market for Ferraris went crazy.
It has started with the 1984 Ferrari 288 GTO (price when new: 275k D-Mark) for 600k D-Mark in 1985/86. And then from 1986 to 1989 the values even for a Testarossa (still in production at that time) got higher and higher. In 1989/1990 a brand new Testarossa has cost 225k D-Mark (here in Germany), and only 1 day after the delivery you was able to sell that Testarossa for up to 550k D-Mark!
It went totally nuts when Enzo died. Every Ferrari - even the 2nd hand cars in very poor condition and also the very unpopular models - easily doubled their values literally "over night".
In 1990 a Ferrari F40 was public auctioned and with over 1 mio D-Mark it broke the record. That was round about 150% over sticker; for a car was has been built in a number more than 1.000 units!
The 3 (!) main reasons for that "car value bubble" in the late 1980s were (1.) the japanese Yen. In the early 1980s the Yen - in relation to the US-Dollar - was very attractive. In just a few years the Yen went so powerful, that in the mid 1980s you could buy exotic cars for just "half the price" when paying with your Yen. And therefore near to 80% of the exotic cars in the world wide market were sold for big money and went to Japan.
The "demand and supply" for a Ferrari 288 GTO and (very short later) for the F40 were (2. reason) out of balance, and "investors" have paid every price to get involved into that game.
And (3.) at the end of the 1980s Enzo died. That's why the values for Ferraris (and it has even affected the values of other exotic car brands) were on the peak in 1990/91.
But then in late 1991 / early 1992 the game was over. The true and serious collectors had already stuffed their collections and kept these cars for decades, and the investors have stuffed their warehouses and showrooms and couldn't sell without losing serious money.
In the mid 1990s you could buy exactly the same cars for only 25% of their ex-values just 5 year later!
In the mid 1990s the investors switched from cars to the new economy in the stock market. The beginning of the "dot com" bubble.
At that time many of "fresh restored" Ferraris entered the market for just a fraction of the costs.
Of course on one hand nowadays we have more rich millionaires in this world than in the 1980s/90s. But on the other hand we have more Ferraris and Lamborghinis and Paganis and McLarens on the market than ever before. Even the very rare - and damn expensive - exotics like a 275 GTB, 250 SWB, Miura, Countach, are "available" relatively quick and easy. That's a fact!
Only 5 years ago you could have told your costumer that the value for his Dino 246 GT or Daytona has increased 100k, and he just smiled. Today you can tell him that the value decreased 100k, and he won't believe you and keep his car till the cows come home, or till he can sell it totally overpriced on Bring a Trailer - the world's biggest community of car flippers and keyboard experts - to a stupid but wealthy "enthusiast".
Just my personal opinion.
You hit every single point. I recently bought a R35 and became apart of that community and seen people trying to buy it and people always say to wait for the "bubble" to pop. It won't NA cars are on the way out and high-performance cars from volume brands (NSX,GTR,LFA) aren't exactly going to be rushed back into production. So your advice is perfect. If you want one, get one, and stop talking about what the prices were a year ago.
They will do back down, you’d have to be delusional to think they won’t. In 2-3 years not only will prices be “normal”, they will have depreciated more.
Because Ed made it cool to buy derelict versions of these cars so now even totaled card have value..
All writeoffs have gone up in value like crazy, because used parts have gone up in value like crazy.
it's definitely not just exotics.
One of my racing league buddies sold his '15 Grand Caravan to that 'vana online dealer for $3k over book ($18k on a $15k KBB value)
His Grand Caravan showed up on the 'vana site for Hannibal, MO about a week later, and 'vana made about $5000 ($23k) on the sale to a new owner a week after that...
I'm really impressed at Ed's analysis. I'm finding myself watching more of VinWiki. Keep going, it's great👍
As far as the chip shortage goes, I managed to get out of my 2020 F150 hardly losing $1500 for a year of ownership. I shrewdly negotiated a replacement vehicle for $5000 and I’m spending the savings on a long time goal of mine to build a Factory Five Cobra (YOLO)! I’m not treating it as an investment, just found a path to the vehicle I always wanted
Finally the early Viper is getting due...multiple Lemans Class winner, World Sportscar Championship sweep etc. And such a badass piece of analog Americana
Glad there are so many responsible people out there in the world buying vehicles instead of paying their mortgage or rent.... way to be responsible world...
I feel one of the worst offenders is the new G63, my mom was looking to get one and most of them were over msrp by $70-100k, some with over 5k miles and less than a year old. The G63 is cool but not worth $225k+. The highest increase I found was a G63 Magno Red Edition, msrp around $200k, the dealer was asking $330k...
Holy shit are you serious? That's insane. I thought the truck market was bad
Your knowledge, understanding and explanations of the topics you choose to speak about is unmatched. I always enjoy your videos.
The bubble will burst, I think in 3-4 years values on average muscle and super cars will loose thier gains. Probably 30-35%
When rich boomers die off, the market will crash.
The RV market went up, so much that in 1 month time I traded key for key a 1986 RV for a 2016 RV worth over 50k I use to be homeless and I started to buy and sell old vans while living in them, havent had a real job in 8 years
Remembering when the P.T. Cruiser came out, people were paying over msrp for the car. Now it's a car very few people want.
There was even a waitlist, for a pos Chrysler. Crazy to imagine now.
You gotta love ed with the car buying/selling knowledge
Because of 13 % inflation. .. highest levels in 13 years. Simple as that.
Ed, what a great way to explain what’s going on. Truly inspiring by your knowledge.
I appreciate that!
Always refreshing to get a professional opinion on the market with no BS
Hey Ed, turns out youtuber and hedge fund manager Patrick Boyle is a fan of yours. Maybe he will have some insights into what is behind the current economic climate
Ed's fireside chats are always the best
amazing vid as always one small note i wish the editor would put up pics of the car the storyteller is discussing instead of a different random car
Simply the best content on the net.. And Mr. Bolian is a fine raconteur!
I had been trying to buy a Ram Trx for a few months and found some dealers asking 25k above sticker. I finally found a good dealer after calling several states and just had to order one. Now i wait but i wasn't paying a ridiculous markup.
Yolo affects is 100% the reason why my age group ( millennials) are spending a fortune on our dream cars. See, we’ve seen countless times all these old guys with bad backs yell at us to “ work hard, so that when you get my age, you can retire and buy all the stuff you ever wanted “
Yeah, No.
We aren’t going to wait until we are 68, fat and bones aching to buy our dream cars and not be able to fully enjoy them.
I’m 36 years old and I just bought my dream car which is an R34 Nissan Skyline GTR. I’m going to enjoy my car NOW at the strong age of 36 rather than being old and tired.
Times are changing, friends!
Funny thing about Bubbles only a very few people see them before popping. The Business Cycle never fails.
Hit the nail on the head, I've seen this going on for about 1.5 year now...those stimis really helped the economy in all sectors
excellent dialogue. i love car market discussions
I was at the Gooding auction when the F1 & Bugatti Type 35-B sold… crazy numbers
Prices are sky rocking, I'm into classic cars and the market is just ridiculous for anything 1972 or older, even the cars nobody wanted are becoming expensive
Damn. That was the most interesting Ed Bolian video I've ever seen. (OK, except anything that has to do with Cannonball). I would enjoy more market analysis and discussion. Especially from the perspective of: Buying driver cars with the hope of retaining value while enjoying.
Thx for the insights Ed.
I have been referring to the phenomenon as "Covid Crazy". As a buyer i saw motorcycles, Dirt bikes, ATVs, Snowmobiles and Jet skis became unavailable both new and used. Facebook marketplace was crazy. Prices went up quickly.
I’ve studied the R8 market for years while saving to put down on one. Wanted a gen 1 but prices skyrocketed to gen 2 prices. I saw gen 2’s going up as well so I jumped on a low mileage example 25k below book value. Not regretting it one bit!
Such a good video!! Thanks dude!!
Damn Ed, for a guy who can’t even change his own oil, you nailed that quite complex explanation.
Actually really enjoyed this, thanks Ed!
Definitely agree on that last part, if you buy something you know you will enjoy and put miles on, you can never lose out, I opted to get a higher mileage MK4 Supra for that exact reason, never plan to sell it and just wanted the car not the investment, that's why I when people see that I have almost a quarter million miles on mine and I drove it 40k miles and the last 5 months, I'm glad I didn't buy a low mileage example for That exact reason
Been eyeing a B7 Audi RS4 for a few years and eventually bought one last year, now those cars have went up at least 30% in value!
Cruising the coast car show coming up in a few months here in Mississippi, I always hope to see a few exotics, I remember the first year I went there were two young guys driving a new GTR and completely tore the front bumper off of it on it on a parking divider
The rappers made the urus value go up
This is absolutely happening. So many 40 year old guys are buying their childhood dream cars. Let's just say there's never a shortage for a friday afternoon cruise nowadays. And yes, I could easily flip my mk4 supra, but that will never happen... ever...
Well that explains it. Dealers are buying literally EVERYTHING. 2008 lexus RX350 with 300,000 miles i saw yesterday as ive been looking for one. Asking price: $12,000.
Bought my Infiniti G37 coupe (6mt) with 82K miles in February of 2020! Car now sits at 95K & the value has increased by 30-40% in its condition. COVID definitely affected the used/lower car market too!
The only other major factor I would add is the extremely fast shift towards electric cars. For a guy like me, I have zero interest in electric. I obsess over an NA car with a manual shift, hence why I lean heavy towards classics although I've also owned many exotics. I believe there is a "panic" of sorts to pick up NA cars with the expectation of a future without new NA cars being produced, at all or very few.
Thoughts?
I played the selling used vehicles. Made lots of money. Paid off debts. Then bought a Harley road glide special. Not a Lamborghini but it’s my dream motorcycle. Never thought I’d ever be able to buy one.
Not an exotic, but I bought a bucket list car 2.5 years ago. In the past 12 months the value has more than doubled. I've put close to 35000 miles on it in that time. Definitely winning.
The private/small airplane market has also had a very good run during Covid. Probably similar reasons for different people.
Man being 16 in the current market must suck, prices are absolutely tragic for people trying to get a fun first/second car
Been a crazy year. Sold 11 motorcycles, bought 4. Some deals to be had.
Funny thing is this has creeped into all cars. From shit boxes, to daily drivers, to classic muscle cars, everything is up. I was looking for a cheep car to do track day events. Figured a Cobalt SS. Those were just about free a couple years ago. Now they are way more than I'd be willing to pay for way rougher cars than I'd like.
Plus for me is if I decided to sell my LeMans, I would actually get everything I have into it back and maybe make a couple bucks to boot.
I'll tell you why: David Gooding, around a decade ago, saw Charlie Ross on Flog It, Bargain Hunt and Antiques Road Trip on BBC TV... and decided he absolutely had to hire him. Charlie is a tremendous character and the best auctioneer on the planet.
IMO, a lot of it is because so many other asset classes are so expensive, people are just looking to park their money elsewhere.
There's also likely some FOMO happening (i.e., people seeing prices going out and assuming they need to get involved now lest they miss up, creating a feedback loop).
Not complaining: My LP570-4 Gallardo Superleggera has gone up :)
Superleggera’s and squadra corsa’s were the best bargain low production supercars the past few years, not sure how much they’re going for now. Pretty reliable for the most part too I’m assuming.
3 weeks late to the party. Wanted to leave my two cents. I bought a Focus RS with 10,500 miles on it October 10th, 2019 for $31,500. Fast forward to today and it now has 36,600 miles on it and valued in a private sale at around $38,500. Triple the mileage and up $7,000 ish. I'd say this is a unique example, however, it really applies to cars that are a trim level that aren't normally purchased and made for only a few years/made few amounts of them.
Cause since 1960 the upper 5 percent had been gaining exponentially more wealth and are competing with each other for these cars and investments.
Your shocked that rich people are buying cars instead of paying their employees?
I think you're on the right track. Only it's more like they invented a minor virus and used it as a tool to brainwash the world population into supporting the largest ponzi scheme ever perpetrated in the history of the world.
Fantastic video Ed!! Thank you for spreading out your amazing content.
Defenders over the in UK have gone wild to the point where the cheapest ones are about 7k with a bag of issues and the sorted ones are nearer 20k
My buddy's company last year laid off everyone, and brought back only a skeleton crew, and cancelled bonuses. BUT they had LOTS of money to renovate their American corporate HQ's top floor (where the President's office is)
It's happened even with lower end sports cars my wife's corvette we bought right after the pandemic started has gone up 10k in value. I think it's also influenced by the delayed release of the c8.
Great analysis, Ed! Would like to hear your thoughts on the Porsche 996 market. Prices are up almost 40% and the hatred of them seems to be waning in recent years.
Everything you discussed also applies to the luxury watch market.
Awesome video, Ed!! I have a particular dream car I’ve been lusting after for years, and I just know that waiting until the time is right, and I’m not going to push it before that. And everyone should be able to appreciate that, as a car lover, waiting until the time is makes sense!
Ed Bolian explains these things in a complex way, that the noncomplex persons like myself completely understand!!…..Professor Bolian!!!
There are always two economic games at play that determine pricing. One, are indirect market forces like futures speculation. Bets are placed on commodities like food, lumber, steel, oil, etc., and when those bets come due, the prices that we pay rise or fall based on the winners and losers. The price we pay at the gas pump is an obvious example. The second, is direct market forces. If people en-masse are suddenly willing to pay more for a product (for any reason) the price will be adjusted upward until it meets a certain level of resistance. The futures scenario leads to quick and noticeable price swings. The second scenario leads to slower less frequent and less extreme swings but generally, overall prices never return to previous levels. Exotic cars aside if you’re holding off on buying (insert normal car here) because you think the post-pandemic price hikes are temporary, you’ll be waiting a very long time for something that in all probability isn’t going to happen.
The new Countach from Lamborghini for 3 million dollars is not being sold to car enthusiasts, but as an "Investment" at this point. Exotic cars were always to show off and show wealth, but they were still meant to be driven. The car exotic car industry has changed to making cars for Instagram and people wanting to flex their wealth on others. I honestly wonder what Lamborghini or Ferrari would think about their companies today.
When there are no new production issues there will be no crazy used prices. By 2023 people will realize they overpaid and will be upside down on the car by a lot.
Wrong the parts of the old cars are still expensive af which in solid state the car will be worth it
If brands such as ferrari and lamborghini reveal and start producing their hybrid successor cars to the aventador and huracan for example, I feel like the non-hybrid aventador and huracans will not drastically change in value and will remain at their values they are currently
You're very naive. There arent production issues. At least not enough to cause the issues we're seeing. The same number of cars are hitting lots, its just people now have so much money cars fly off the lots.
@@AccountsAndGp possibly but it'll help with holding value. No matter what people will prefer V8s to some bullshit 4 cylinder hybrid. There is a reason why 458s are more than 488s and the 488 still has a v8! Once they kill cylinders it'll be worse
Can confirm that it’s not just high-end cars. I bought a 2010 997.2 base for $45k in November. Similar examples are now selling $70k+.
997.2 has gone up quite a bit. Great combination of size, modern upgrades and most importantly no IMS. Wonderful car.
Ugh...I know. Hurts the soul as that generation is on my wish list. :/
The market is like a rubber band, the farther you stretch it, the more it will kick back later once the driving force is gone, eventually depreciation will hit automobiles much harder than we've seen in a while.
Cool commentary ed...appreciate the video....looking forward to car trek season 5
I was hoping this video would be done by you Ed, we love the guests but we love “Shrewd negotiation” much more!
I bought a 1995 z28 camaro! A dream car of mine with t tops for about 3500 under the current market normal in my area. But it’s my dream car so I’m gonna hang on to it for as long as I can
You should have Doug DeMuro show us the quirks and features of your garage
Ed forgot the cheap money aspect. The fed loaning money to banks at zero percent which intern allows them to give loans at incredibly cheap rates. Other than that on point.
911R is the only car that I can think of being sold for double retail. Also the only new car I've ever flipped actually, made 150k at 24!
@@alexanderjiang2941 awesome! I didn't know the msrp was that low!
@@alexanderjiang2941 yeah I know about those, im talking about brand new release from the dealer not cars that are a few years or more old. Still crazy though
It’s interesting to think about the possibilities to why the car market would increase. It probably comes down to peoples spending and budgeting. If we were all stuck inside because of the pandemic. All the people that go out and spend money normally were saving money. Because almost no matter what you spend your money on, if you can’t go out and spend it, then your forced to save. Effecting the market because more people have money for cars.
Also if there’s a shortage of new cars, then the used market gets a jump. But once there is new supply of cars. The used market will drop. It all comes down to supply and demand.