@@lllllllll772 If I was running the FM academy then Kev would do the first year and Zealand second year. Kev is like "WTF is XG" and you can bet Zealand is doing a video in a couple of weeks titled "How to use XG to get most out of your players" or whatever. Like this is an explainer where as Zealand's stuff is mostly applied knowledge - how to implement stuff in the game, tricks, tips, and exploits.
I'm finding xG really useful. You can make a relatively minor tactical tweak mid-game and see whether there was a change in your chance creation. I pushed my team to play wider after 30mins when the game was 0-0. We won 3-0, but there was a definite team improvement in the xG graph which showed me it was less likely down to luck. You have to continue to study the graphs to make sure you're constantly quality controlling the tactical changes you make as luck/RNG is always a factor in this.
This video has to be up there as one of your best yet Kev. I had a basic understanding of xG as a concept but your explanation with regards to its implementation within FM was very clear and useful. Keep up this level of content because this was really top tier.
The second half of the video was extremely useful! It's all well and good explaining what something is, but taking the extra step to explain how to apply it yourself is great!
Became a football manager in fm20. Addicted since. Was watching your Leeds save as have seen your thumbnails in RUclips for while. Canadian here basking in the success of Davies and lack of cpl (Canadian premier league) when I was 14 back in 2001. Your vids are awesome and entertaining, I appreciate your skill and the videos on encouraging people to start trying recording. From across the pond thank you and look forward to your fm21 videos and more. Thank you cheers
I'd love a tutorial on how you manage the new scouting tools. I've never exclusively used my own staff like you do on your saves so I would like to know how you set that up.
This XG will expose FM even more. I'll love to see the XG value from those matches u get like 20 shots and half of them clear cut chances, and the AI gets one shot and still beats you.
Great explanation Kev. 1 thing to correct: Clear cut chances and 1/ chances *are* still tracked. But they aren't put on the default stat page. To see them, you have to minimize the dugout, which sends you back to what essentially is the old overlay. On that, you can set up statistics however you like, including putting chance creation back into the tracking. I imagine someone will skin that back to the front soon.
Very helpful, thanks Kev. You really do explain things in an Autism friendly way and trust me, I appreciate that having autism. One thing I have found with xG, is that I can tell a couuple matches in advance if my player is dropping form. This is a crucial advantage of FM this year, and let's hope it can lead to more proactive instead of reactive decisions.
Salty comments from people who likely aren't gonna play with any lower league teams. xG is gonna be extremely valuable for evaluating players and finding the best bargains. This has to be one of my favorite additions to the game this year, honestly.
Do we blame the strikers like you said? xG was 0.56 so simplfied you had barely any chances to score. Strikers are responsible to create chances as well, but I'd blame the creative people in the squad. I'd blame the strikers more heavily if xG is far above our actual score. Thoughts?
It depends on the shots. If the strikers were getting the ball and shooting from far out/tight angles, etc I would blame the strikers for bad decision making. It would have been interesting to also look at the shot map for the xg to get the full picture to why xg was low even though there was 11 shots.
There’s more to it i think, take in to account how many players get in the box, how much feeedom you give your players to be creative, how often your players find the pass in the final 1/3rd. It’s a synergy that you have to get right. Having a low xG doesn’t imply your team is not playing well per se, if you play a defensive team that relies on 3/4 counter attacking moments. I think we should focus on learning the impact our tactical decisions make on xG compared to the impact on xG you want to achieve with a tactical change.
True, from a bird's eye view perspective it is not only the players but the instructions they follow so I simplified too much. To phrase it to the other extreme and try to make a similar point: It wasn't the strikers that screwed up good chances left and right so it would not be my conclusion to blame the strikers, but rather midfield or instructions on how to play to create promising chances
Yeah it shows a shot map off all the chances, the the player taking the shot, xG of the shot, and what happend to the ball so if they scored, if it was saved, blocked and so on.
They dont work as a constant, the score should have been 2-0, xG doesnt work like that it can only calculate from the chances created in the 90 mins, you cant exactly round up the numbers and say thats what it should have been because thats not how it works. They were expected to score 0.25 in 90 min so if they played a 260min game of football, to get the 1 xG they would have to consistently play exactly like they were for the first 90 3 more times exactly the same amount of shots exact same positions, so its impossible, xG does not round up as a constant it is changing constantly throughout the match.
another thing that 90% of us will not bother with. RUclipsrs and streamers are bigging it up to keep their free shirts flowing but will never use it in their game.
@@lollujo I have to agree with Stephen here. Sir, you don't look you're in your teenage years. And yet every time SI start their annual sale of the exact same game, you get soooooo excited as if we're all witnessing the 2nd coming of the Lord or something. And your colleagues, I might add, all have the exact same reaction. If you really love that game, if you've been playing it as long as I have (I've been playing it since about 1998), that excitement can't possibly be genuine.
I’ve been playing since Championship Manager 2 back in 1995. I love the series so much I made it my full time job. I spend thousands of hours a year playing it, and have for the last 25 years. Yes, I’m THAT excited when the new game drops...
@FM Tianjin I fail to see where Kev has reacted like it was the second coming. People have asked what xg is and he’s reacted to the requests to explain it to people. In fact if you were a regular follower of Lollujo you’d know that Kev himself said when the new features were announced that they seemed a little underwhelming with most of them being a polished reskin of what was already there. Other than match engine tweaks xg seems to be the most relevant improvement so in my opinion warranted a video. And not that it matters but for reference I’ve been playing football management games from way back to the ZX Spectrums Football Manager including the excellent (for its time) Championship Manager 98 and I still get excited to see what new features are in each new game. If you’re not interested in hearing about new features not sure why you watched or even commented to be honest
But it tells you how many shots you've had anyway...so once the match is done why would xg matter? You either scored or you didn't. Buy a better striker. Enjoying 21 so far anyway.
What is xG...? A completely useless feature that nobody wanted. In the past 10 years - not a single new feature!!! Either it's tweaking already existing features (quite often making them worse), or plagiarising from Total Club, FIFA Manager from 15-20 years ago... Not a single new feature. In 10 years (if not more).
Imagine in a year where EA gets roasted for copy pasting it's game on switch that someone thinks that they are more innovative than FM. dictatethegame.com/getting-expected-goals-or-xg-into-fm19/ also I am sure this guy is glad he doesn't have to do a bunch of spreadsheets anymore.
If your xG is high and better than your opp but you still lose, it's mean you just got FM'd with extra step
as you were a teacher in your younger days, you would probably make the best tutorial videos and stuff :D
Zealand forever!!
@@lllllllll772 If I was running the FM academy then Kev would do the first year and Zealand second year. Kev is like "WTF is XG" and you can bet Zealand is doing a video in a couple of weeks titled "How to use XG to get most out of your players" or whatever. Like this is an explainer where as Zealand's stuff is mostly applied knowledge - how to implement stuff in the game, tricks, tips, and exploits.
@@lllllllll772 no he's shit the best is bust the net
I'm finding xG really useful. You can make a relatively minor tactical tweak mid-game and see whether there was a change in your chance creation. I pushed my team to play wider after 30mins when the game was 0-0. We won 3-0, but there was a definite team improvement in the xG graph which showed me it was less likely down to luck. You have to continue to study the graphs to make sure you're constantly quality controlling the tactical changes you make as luck/RNG is always a factor in this.
This is good to know.
This video has to be up there as one of your best yet Kev. I had a basic understanding of xG as a concept but your explanation with regards to its implementation within FM was very clear and useful. Keep up this level of content because this was really top tier.
The second half of the video was extremely useful! It's all well and good explaining what something is, but taking the extra step to explain how to apply it yourself is great!
Became a football manager in fm20. Addicted since. Was watching your Leeds save as have seen your thumbnails in RUclips for while. Canadian here basking in the success of Davies and lack of cpl (Canadian premier league) when I was 14 back in 2001. Your vids are awesome and entertaining, I appreciate your skill and the videos on encouraging people to start trying recording. From across the pond thank you and look forward to your fm21 videos and more. Thank you cheers
I'd love a tutorial on how you manage the new scouting tools. I've never exclusively used my own staff like you do on your saves so I would like to know how you set that up.
This XG will expose FM even more. I'll love to see the XG value from those matches u get like 20 shots and half of them clear cut chances, and the AI gets one shot and still beats you.
Great explanation Kev. 1 thing to correct: Clear cut chances and 1/ chances *are* still tracked. But they aren't put on the default stat page.
To see them, you have to minimize the dugout, which sends you back to what essentially is the old overlay. On that, you can set up statistics however you like, including putting chance creation back into the tracking.
I imagine someone will skin that back to the front soon.
The massive dog shadow scared the life out of me!!
Love the Dave cameo. He's taking over youtube as well as twitch!
Very helpful, thanks Kev. You really do explain things in an Autism friendly way and trust me, I appreciate that having autism.
One thing I have found with xG, is that I can tell a couuple matches in advance if my player is dropping form. This is a crucial advantage of FM this year, and let's hope it can lead to more proactive instead of reactive decisions.
I'm not usually one for guides and tutorials but this was really interesting.
Really great video and helpful, definitely want more of this
Great video and we need more of these videos as it helps loads
Nicely put together video. Cheers
Salty comments from people who likely aren't gonna play with any lower league teams. xG is gonna be extremely valuable for evaluating players and finding the best bargains. This has to be one of my favorite additions to the game this year, honestly.
WIll you use xC (expected chairs) for house hunting in non-league to legend? :D
really good video you have a new subscriber!
You wonderfull person! Loved your explanations
The dog making an appearance surprised me.
This is a fantastic idea for a video!
xG is kind of what they use in the Moneyball movie for "Base runs" in Baseball.
Yeah, it's sort of similar to on-base percentage + slugging.
@@MrAmericanXtreme it's closer to the newer baseball stats like X-Swing% and HR/FB.
@@TheJohnnySlick very true. Was mostly relating it to Moneyball which mentions OBPS
Very helpful. Thanks dude.
Clear cut chances are still in the game tho, you can see it if you change for example the opponents windows to match stats
xG the worlds mystery... Until now
Great vid Kev
dapper as always
Doggo getting comfy for this lecture!
Do we blame the strikers like you said? xG was 0.56 so simplfied you had barely any chances to score. Strikers are responsible to create chances as well, but I'd blame the creative people in the squad. I'd blame the strikers more heavily if xG is far above our actual score. Thoughts?
It depends on the shots. If the strikers were getting the ball and shooting from far out/tight angles, etc I would blame the strikers for bad decision making. It would have been interesting to also look at the shot map for the xg to get the full picture to why xg was low even though there was 11 shots.
There’s more to it i think, take in to account how many players get in the box, how much feeedom you give your players to be creative, how often your players find the pass in the final 1/3rd. It’s a synergy that you have to get right. Having a low xG doesn’t imply your team is not playing well per se, if you play a defensive team that relies on 3/4 counter attacking moments. I think we should focus on learning the impact our tactical decisions make on xG compared to the impact on xG you want to achieve with a tactical change.
True, from a bird's eye view perspective it is not only the players but the instructions they follow so I simplified too much. To phrase it to the other extreme and try to make a similar point: It wasn't the strikers that screwed up good chances left and right so it would not be my conclusion to blame the strikers, but rather midfield or instructions on how to play to create promising chances
I guess it would depend on the circumstances. Like all statistics, it’s all about the context and interpretation!
@incognito - no - I hadn’t read yours when I replied
Maths lesson with Kev haha. Well explained 😎
I been watching match of the day for a while and ever since the XG came in, I thought it meant how likely the score would be before the game 😂😂😂
Mahaguru of Football Manager 🥳🥳🥳
Kev why does it say booty on the box by your shoulder? can we have a review on that?
I enjoyed the first 8 minutes and then got triggered by the use of the full name of MK! (Seriously great video though should you do more explainers)
Couple of salty people in here today, thanks for the vid kev, nice little insight into how to apply XG to our own saves and gameplay.
That’s only to be expected when I do something I don’t usually do!
Is xg useable during the game to help make changes or only after it to analyse what happened?
It's in-game - you can see how you're getting on "live".
Thanks for thr great info. But why the suit? :)
thanks mate
Isn't xG the same as clear cut chances?
If XG is one of the headline features of the new FM that doesn't exactly bode well...
Haven’t played yet so yet to see, but is the vertical line on the xg summary clickable so you can see which player had that chance?
I haven’t tried to be honest!
Yeah it shows a shot map off all the chances, the the player taking the shot, xG of the shot, and what happend to the ball so if they scored, if it was saved, blocked and so on.
substitute time: the player statistic screen, 3th kolom, named time.
How are one on ones this year as they were all appalling in FM20??
Much improved
1.78 to 0.25 represents a potential score of 7.12 to 1... so winning 2-1, in reality, indicates poor finishing from your boys.
They dont work as a constant, the score should have been 2-0, xG doesnt work like that it can only calculate from the chances created in the 90 mins, you cant exactly round up the numbers and say thats what it should have been because thats not how it works. They were expected to score 0.25 in 90 min so if they played a 260min game of football, to get the 1 xG they would have to consistently play exactly like they were for the first 90 3 more times exactly the same amount of shots exact same positions, so its impossible, xG does not round up as a constant it is changing constantly throughout the match.
DAVVEEEEE
I wonder if anyone actually has the patience to play football manager and watch the full 90 lol
I have to wait till Christmas 😭
Kev does math....who knew 🙃
How can a video on expected goals be 14mins long 😂
Doggie Shadows 🐺
Is that a German Shorthaired Pointer walking behind you?
Its an English Spriger Spaniel. Called Dave.
Last time I was this early to a video.. Man United were winning EPL titles
What's your accent?
They removed the scoping highlight bar from matches wtf! Who asked for that to be removed! And added stupid stats like XG for spazz cakes
no no, you subbed in the 69th min, which is why you won. Game is biased
another thing that 90% of us will not bother with. RUclipsrs and streamers are bigging it up to keep their free shirts flowing but will never use it in their game.
You’ve got me, everything I do is about getting free shirts. It’s what I live for.
huh?
@@lollujo I have to agree with Stephen here. Sir, you don't look you're in your teenage years. And yet every time SI start their annual sale of the exact same game, you get soooooo excited as if we're all witnessing the 2nd coming of the Lord or something. And your colleagues, I might add, all have the exact same reaction. If you really love that game, if you've been playing it as long as I have (I've been playing it since about 1998), that excitement can't possibly be genuine.
I’ve been playing since Championship Manager 2 back in 1995. I love the series so much I made it my full time job. I spend thousands of hours a year playing it, and have for the last 25 years. Yes, I’m THAT excited when the new game drops...
@FM Tianjin I fail to see where Kev has reacted like it was the second coming. People have asked what xg is and he’s reacted to the requests to explain it to people. In fact if you were a regular follower of Lollujo you’d know that Kev himself said when the new features were announced that they seemed a little underwhelming with most of them being a polished reskin of what was already there. Other than match engine tweaks xg seems to be the most relevant improvement so in my opinion warranted a video. And not that it matters but for reference I’ve been playing football management games from way back to the ZX Spectrums Football Manager including the excellent (for its time) Championship Manager 98 and I still get excited to see what new features are in each new game. If you’re not interested in hearing about new features not sure why you watched or even commented to be honest
But it tells you how many shots you've had anyway...so once the match is done why would xg matter? You either scored or you didn't. Buy a better striker. Enjoying 21 so far anyway.
It gives you an insight into how well the team played, not just who won the game
What is xG...? A completely useless feature that nobody wanted. In the past 10 years - not a single new feature!!! Either it's tweaking already existing features (quite often making them worse), or plagiarising from Total Club, FIFA Manager from 15-20 years ago... Not a single new feature. In 10 years (if not more).
I mean, you know you’re just talking total nonsense! Why are you even watching the video if you hate the game so much?
Imagine in a year where EA gets roasted for copy pasting it's game on switch that someone thinks that they are more innovative than FM.
dictatethegame.com/getting-expected-goals-or-xg-into-fm19/ also I am sure this guy is glad he doesn't have to do a bunch of spreadsheets anymore.
Lol nonesense comment
@@macmanuelodumeru3708 Name a single new feature please. Judging by how adamant you sound, it should be a pretty long list, shouldn't it?