For $882,000, Fedor Holz Takes A BIG Risk
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- Опубликовано: 2 фев 2017
- It's a high roller tournament down under, where a seat will cost you a cool $100,000. Fedor Holz is no stranger to these events, as the better part of his $20,000,000 career earnings have come from these tough fields. This time he's keen to take a huge pot off of Mike Watson, firing three barrels with air. Was this the right line to take, and how should Watson react?
As always on Poker Hands, Doug breaks down each street of action and shares his thoughts on how each player made their decisions.
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#GrindNation
I could watch Fedor watching grass grow
Schneider HAHAHHAA that's incredibly accurate
Fedor is just a sword and two friends away from being a Muskateer.
LOL
rofl
so Fedor already starting growing a beard for his retirment
doug i love this series please keep making these
Loving the shot clock and time bank aspects to live tournament. Need to see this in WSOP main event.
Jonathan Gray it would turn a like 7 day event into a 3 dayer 😅
Great video Doug as always. Any chance you could also talk about sizing decisions in future videos?
LOVING the daily videos, keep up the grind Doug!
Fedor needs to change his middle name to Ungar, that way he's F.U. Holz =b
There are huge ICM implications for this hand as well. 5 left if i remember correctly, with 4th paying 0 and 3rd paying over 300k. Mike and Fedor are the top 2 stacks with some shorties. If mike calls and lose he ends up in a log jam from 2nd to 5th instead of being comfortably in 2nd place.
For sure. Likely only reason why Fedor`s play is acceptable, and not random spew. He does not play his cards, but the tournament situation here. While in cash game, that second pair against an aggressive opponent most often would be a call, things look rather different here.
+Badbentham though in reality, the same person wouldn't play KJ in a cash game like he would in this particular spot
On the button? Sure he would.
This is only more reason to call
@@Badbentham I am pretty sure he did this play ONLY because of that, which makes it even more amazing. The call would be insanely good here, but he didn't have the guts obviously. Fedor is just too good.
hey Doug I am asking again if you could please make a video on bankroll management and how or when to move up in stakes that would be a great help
the hand break downs and your Comedy skits o the topic of poker Beeee Meee Favorites
Nice one coach! I was wondering what would be you tought about this hand and I was right! Ty for everything.
Doug, can you please break down the Fedor hand against Upeshka De Silva in the main event in 2015. Fedor jams 78 and Pesh calls off on river with 1 pair AK for his tourney life.
Nice vid Doug, thank you.
Hey Doug. Long time poker player here, and I highly enjoyed the videos. One thing I was you would do a bit more in your commentary is try and get inside the reasoning as to why the player's are doing what they do. You're excellent at the technical side of things, but i think it would be really entertaining if you could speculate more and go out on a few more limbs.
Gotta consider the ICM components too =) good analysis as always
If Fedor had a Kc or a Jc and the turn was a club, 10, or Q would you be more okei with barrelling then or would you check back and realise you equity?
fedor tanking for so long on the river is a huge tell that hes probably bluffing imo, i do the same thing. before bluffing you do a lot more mental work thinking the hand through from both of your perspectives than you do for placing a valuebet with a strong hand. Valuebetting is easy but for bluffs a certain type of player rethinks everything, then double checks himself and generally spends a lot of time.
Im 90% sure Fedor isnt balancing his valuebet tank range. easy call.
Im pretty sure he wouldnt have won over 20 millions mostly in high class tournaments, if he gave away such easy tells.
Is Binks ok? If so definitely need more Binks cameos.
Cool hand & info - thanks!
HUGE gulp from Fedor at 2:45
Many thanks for the subtitles in Spanish, much appreciated Doug!
i think u mean.. muchos gracias
Hoooooold the baby....oops wrong video...
for all the smackarooskies
Doug you should start selling hair products for men, specifically gel.
Jets613 polker product
Except he has no brand recognition.
+maliant16 listen I've been doing my best with the product placements for him
I don't agree with calling the turn bet unless you plan on calling a river bet when a blank comes off, or pushing back all in. You could get away from that hand on the turn easily, as Doug said he's vs an aggressive opponent, a river bet was predictable.
@@frankichel6956 not sure you wanna c/r on flop unless you wanna turn your hand into a bluff
Obrigado Doug pela legenda em português!!! Thanks Doug for caption in Portuguese
Hey Doug, can't he have trips (i.e 2) with all other draws that came on the turn, and he can also continue bluffing on the turn and probably jam it on the river as Mike checked the river and Fedor will ofcourse go for a c bet and again check bet on the turn
I have a question why didn't you mentioned hand like 2's as he is on button and can have a variety of hands that include suited connectors high cards and unsuited ones plus pairs. He can fire the turn here as he can hit trips and still continue bluffing
Trips is just a small portion of combinations compared to all other hands
Is there any merit to Mike raising the turn if he puts Fedor on a wide drawing range to "protect his equity" with his middle pair or is it too kamikaze? Also, would your answer change if it was a cash game 150-200bb deep vs tourney?
If he raises he folds out bluffs that might barrel river and only better hands call the raise, some draws also might call and put huge pressure on a river check.
@@Romans8-9 well he did get barreled on the river and he seemed to not really be concerned if it was a draw, he folded. Which I think is why theyre asking. He’s in a position where he can’t comfortably call a river barrel against an uncapped range with only second pair, _if that’s the case_ is there any merit in raising the turn to - as they said in the old days - see where he’s at. You at least filter out most bluffs so you mostly minimize your chances of getting bluffed off? But at the same time if your opponent really does have a value hand or is gangster enough to call then you’re losing the same amount of money more or less as check calling turn and check calling river (if you’re beat) and at least this way youre losing less money if you’re folding to value anyway? not really sure whats the right answer or if what i said is even logically consistent. But that’s why I don’t play in 100k buy-ins 😜
@@MrJoosebawkz Inflating the pot with 2nd pair is just plain bad. You also turn your hand into a bluff when you at least have some showdown value. Call turn re-evaluate River, seems most optimal. Why would u want to "filter out bluffs" when only better hands are calling and also some draws might call and bluff the River against a check.
Saying "however" instead of "that Said". Super proud Doug.
hello Doug. thanks for the quality analysis as always, but I notice that you don't mention 23 or 34 suited in his range here. Any input would be appreciated.
I'm thinking he would only fire the river with these hands, but then again he may turn bottom pair into a bluff for two streets and then get there.
The issue is if you ever tried to make this move in your small stakes game. if they called down to Turn with second pair.. they will most likely call river at that board.
Triple barreling with total air is totally fine sometimes. If you read your opponent as weak it's okay to try and exploit that regardless of your cards. Yes he could have stronger hands to bluff with but that's not always necessary. If you have a read or think a certain play will win you more money it's fine to throw balance or the gto play out the window.
Chris Wilson yes I believe he had a live read. he put him on a small pair and knew he could get him off it by triple barreling. He could tell Watson did not like it when he bet the turn.
James 84 I always wonder with you people, do you actually believe that or is it just a story you invent and decide to be stubborn with?
Wow bro i have 5 years in poker and i didnt know your channel... Thanks for put subtitles in spanish...
I don't really see the point in check calling twice then check folding. For information?
Fedor has a very active Adams apple! just an observation...
Doug, can you put ICM into ur vids. These aren't even cash hands. You have to include calc of how ICM affect their range.
Is there ever a suited turn card?
Doug you are the best !! saludos desde uruguay
I think river sizing played a huge part in Watson folding. Not just from an odds perspective. He figured that he looked really sticky in Fedor's eyes, like HE WOULD call a big river bet, and Fedor knew that so he bet over 3/4 of the pot. Def a leveling spot where pros USUALLY have it when they take a line like this and bomb the river in a spot where their opponent is supposed to have the better hands
Can anyone shed some light on why during Doug's analysis following the river that he does not consider some sets as possible holdings for either player? Obviously not trying to call Doug stupid I am genuinely curious about it because usually Doug considers every possible holding and this time he said nothing about sets...here is my thinking.
Holz opens pre on the button for 2.5 bb. Pretty standard raise that represents a fairly wide range. Watson defends on the SB, being that he is OOP I feel like his range is slightly more narrow. After this, Fedor is checked to on each street, responds by making value sized bets, and gets called. I believe two pairs do not fit either players range as Fedor wouldnt open pre with any of those two pair combinations and Watson would certainly fold to a raise with any of the possible two pair combinations. That being said, I believe hands like 22,33,44 for Watson certainly make sense and hands like 77,99,TT certainly fall in Fedor's range.
Thoughts?
"My head is spinning from props so I called"
What about a series analysing hands from the brains vs AI challenge that finished this week ?
Fedor chips stacked so high! Stacks on stacks!
I was running this hand and its actually solver approved, even flop and turn to a high frequency. Those natural bluffs like TJ,QT block the t which isnt great as solver likes to xc even t8o .
does solver call the river in watson's spot.
The difference in commentary when you have a World class Pro is clearly notable. wp Aussie Millions!
What is the joke at the end about Mike not having any moves? Thanks!
Hand starts with 5 people and ends up with heads up,this recreational guy is sick!
does fedor's use of the time bank chip make him look weaker? top pairs and over pairs go out the window more and missed draws come back in.
If fedor has a thin value hand like TPTK he will also need time to figure out wether his hand is good enough to bet this size. Therefore I think the tanking is "balanced" in a way altough he will most likely not waste a timebank chip if he has a nuthand.
If you guys missed it, yesterday's video has a great Phil Helmuth hand, and quite the segue.
ruclips.net/video/vG_OR0hn7MY/видео.html
Doug, it's spelled segue . A segway is personal transportation device.
Thanks
Doug Polk Poker why isn't fedor repping 6-5? It makes sense from how he plaŷed the whole hand. I probably need to go to the lab...?
Doug Polk Poker thought he was calling 100%. Fedors too sick
Phil Helmuth on a segway would make for a great video though...
I've checked the video speed and it's normal,this is live poker right? 🤔
In that spot, what should Fedor thinnest for value 3 barrel be?
I would guess TPTK looks like a good starting point, given the (low card draw-heavy) board texture. May go down as low as about Q9 ? Beyond that, IDK. You should in general be able to beat some other top pairs here, I believe. It also depends on the bluff frequency: The more you bluff, the more inclination to compensate with marginal value - as you will get called light. So, a maniac might even barrel through any TP.
overbetski the river...all in jam is the best move...but with different blockers..with K J it's check all the way
check? are you out of your mind? it's a sure waste of your prior bets. either you jam or you jam. there is no chance to win this pot with king high.
What do you think about Watson check raising the turn? Dumb play?
I don't mind his play here because it's obvious that his opponent is capped at one pair and placing pressure on him can force a fold often enough to make this a profitable play.
Absolutely agree with you here Doug, spew all around from Fedor and if Watson knows him he should just call down
Thanks for the subtitles in Spanish :)
I wonder if there were any hands in Fedor's range that he wasn't gonna 3barrel with lol
5:30 I don't think he cares about improving. I think he just wants to put tons of pressure on him, knowing that he will fold most of the time, because he probably doesn't have much. He's telling the story of TT+ or a straight/flush draw, and when you get there you can bomb it and get a 7 to fold. In his mind, that is. I don't think he really minds being a little unbalanced
Q7 stronger than T9, J9 98 in this spot? No club either, has to be a call
Like before watch as always
Doug contradicts himself. In past videos he says not to bluff the river with hands that blocks villains bluffs. Here he recommends Fedor bluff the river with missed straight draw and flush draw hands.
This guy is at my table lol
Holz is a beast
Has anyone purchased the Upswing poker Lab subscription? I'm looking for some input
MiradeTV I get the meme but i believe Doug to be a good teacher and a respectable individual. Sometime luck can play you tricks but in my mind he is a great player regardless of the time it takes to complete the br challenge. I believe having him as a "mentor" would allow me to surpass my current level of skill. So i don't think there's any reason to doubt his abilities. All i want to know is if the lab is abundant in content and whether that content is high quality.
Dragos Lid its obviously got some value. applying to certain games like micro and small stakes can be challenging. I think its going to increase most people's understanding of the game overall.
+MiradeTV hahahahaha
Fedor definitely a "retired" player lol
"Recreational."
using his enormous bankroll to just play highest variance style possible and making people fold left right and center... great for poker !!
Not as great as increasing the rake though.
Two final tables at the recent Aussie Millions, wasn't it :-)
Whats the name of this show again?
Porker hands
Fedor Emelianenko never gets out of line
yeahhh doug
Stefen Sontheimer 1.50 in... I have a read on him.. he thinks: in this time this 2 donks take to play this hand I would be able to play 100 zoom hands over 4 tables.
i honestly thought fedor was going to jam lol even though that would make 0 sense
honestly for watson i would call if i called the turn, his bet sizing polarized his hand to a9+
and if he wasnt so active it would probably polarize it to 2 pair+
if i call the turn and this is the river and he bets this much when my range looks weak you gotta call
Michael Seago allright, show us your work
Doug should give free poker lessons at his house so I can come over and drink all his food and eat all his beer
thanks is português. .....
Why does Doug never consider that Holz could have a pocket pair (4s, 7s, or 9s)? How would Holz have played this hand differently if he had pocket pairs and flopped a set???
Two Bink's Feet are back!
The understanding of the fold here is very easy i think. I will not say it is the right move, but i think against fedor you know this is not even a trash player. So if you think about it to bet this river with a blank. You are in a very taff spot. Wich very good player would bluff such a spot with nothing on this non draw board. I mean every other reg would be called here easily, but i think usually a pro would mostly give up on this spot and i think that are his thoughts
Why is this popping up as recent on my subscription notifications @dougpolkpoker
So is it.. Poker hands, or Polker hands?
So why does the graphic say that the king of clubs is not an out for Holz?
Kc was already folded by another player pre-flop
How did Fedor become so good? By himself or he had a.mentor?
Have you ever thought about calling this Polker Dands
People on twitch have started calling you dog Polk. What do you think of that.
It's Dog Pork. Now what do you think of that?
It's DP. I love coming on YT and getting DP.
Spectre Clearly Dog Pork imo
Probably because due to his poor verbal articulation Google closed caption translates his name as either Dog Polk or Dog Park depending on how he says it.
Today it's Dog Pole
Why is the K of clubs not an out for Fedor on the flop?
Petrangelo folded it preflop
Have the poker guys and Dog Plok ever reviewed the same hand?
nintendokings
The Daniel Negreanu "value bluff" hand against Alec Torelli.
Watching this reminds me of an episode of Beavis and Butthead when they cut their hair and glued it to their faces to try and look older. Fedor - Great at poker. Shite at beard growing.
Carver and Polk are both putting Fedor on a wide range from the button, which makes sense because of the button and Fedor's aggressiveness. However, the triple barrel and large bet sizings screams a large pocket pair. The large bet sizings seem to indicate he wants to push his opponent off of draws, which there were a ton of on this board. Of course he could be semi-bluffing with a draw as well but this is just a fantastic line from Fedor and it makes a river call almost impossible.
the turn and river just aint good enough cards to triple barrel here IMO
comment about calling it polker hands or your real name being Dan.
good luck with the rest of the highrollers if you're playing in them this weekend.
sStrobe I like kangaroos..but thats just me..
I can't tell if Fedor is 13 years old or 73 years old
2nd bet his body posture was a lot better, but that never matters if he folds on the flop
pretty beleave able 3rd barrel, ... nice review.. u asked for feedback, also if Fedor checks behind on the flop and opts for pot control maybe he doesn't get called on a river bet with a smaller pot, easier for Mike to fold 2nd par, .... omg Mike my man u called it off twice to lay it down on a brick 5th street... no moves indeed!!!!!!!
Watson could go all in on the river. After Fedors big bets, it is really unlikely that he has the flush draw or straight draw, it more makes him to have a set or overpair. This could be the spot to go all in for watson. Than Fedor has to fold every hand here. He only could stand in with A5
Thats a genius play if you know which cards Fedor has.... Which is impossible to figure out. I wouldn't jam with just second pair, although against an unpredictable player like Fedor its probably necessary at some point. Otherwise he will just dominate you.
Q5 > Q6 and Q7
Commentator: "One king is dead"
Well, you'd expect 1-2 of fedor's pair outs to have been dealt to players preflop. The fact that it was only 1 is actually good for Fedor. (Assuming it's 9-handed)
big swallow from fader with that 22k bet... I'd check raise with the 7 of that alone
U got lot of showdown value with that seven so why check raise cause If fedor four bets u need to let go that seven what is on many case best hand there?
@@kkkkdidikddd9033 if fedor beats I shove out of frustration lmfao
Ah, the skeezy mustache every 23 year old tries to grow
Great look bud
You have this mustache too? Want to come to the Portland Hipster Invitational? Winner gets a 10,000$ Whole Foods gift card.
Хольц в край офигел от своего апстрика уже...)
feedor is always watching opoonets face He is probably very good Reading faces
hello, Doug
Ace 5 of clubs would hit
2021
I don't understand something. if it's unlikely Watson holds K9, J9 as fedor holds a kJ, why do you immidiately go on to say J10 is a possibility? surely it's as true for J10 as it is for K9, I think 10 8 would be a stronger candidate for a likely draw, assuming of course that is what Watson was holding.
I did not think fedor was that big of a fish