How Demography Destroys (or Builds) Armies - Recruitment, Retention and Manpower
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- Опубликовано: 7 июн 2024
- Whatever its equipment, a military is nothing without its people.
As many militaries struggle with recruitment, the armies in Ukraine grow older, and countries in Asia grapple with the implications of ageing populations, it's becoming clear that getting the right people may be as much of a challenge for forces as getting the right technology.
So today, we look at that age old problem. How do militaries get people, why are so many struggling - and what might they be able to do about it?
Patreon:
/ perunau
Relevant sources and reading:
NATO expenditure data (used for personnel expenditure calculations)
www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/ne...
Featured Carnegie piece on ROK manpower challenges
carnegieendowment.org/2021/06...
UK Defence Personnel Statistics
researchbriefings.files.parli...
www.gov.uk/government/publica...
www.gov.uk/government/statist...
Mediazona Russian KIA count
en.zona.media/article/2022/05...
US Army Demographics:
api.army.mil/e2/c/downloads/2...
ADF demographics
www.abs.gov.au/statistics/peo...
ROK conscript mobile phone trial
www.koreaherald.com/view.php?...
US misses recruiting goal:
www.armytimes.com/news/your-a...
www.defense.gov/News/News-Sto....
www.defenseone.com/policy/202...
news.usni.org/2022/12/01/toug...
father and son deploying together
www.military.com/daily-news/2...
David Barano and Nora Bensahel - Addressing the recruiting crisis:
warontherocks.com/2023/03/add....
CDC data
www.cdc.gov/physicalactivity/...
www.cdc.gov/media/releases/20...
US Army recruiting reforms:
www.armytimes.com/news/your-a...
www.army.mil/article/270458/a...
www.army.mil/article/270692/a...
UK medical classifications 1914
eehe.org.uk/?p=25030
Institutional trust levels:
www.pewresearch.org/short-rea...
USAREC:
recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts...
Jamestown foundation on recruitment and retention in Russia
jamestown.org/program/tricky-...
Reporting on 2024 Russian recruitment ambitions
www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/1...
USAF pilot poaching
www.airforcetimes.com/news/yo...
Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and limitations apply:
In particular - I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:36 - What Am I Talking About
00:02:33 - History
00:07:57 - The Funnel
00:08:35 - Demography: The Challenge
00:11:13 - Demography: Potential Solutions
00:12:25 - Eligibility: The Challenge
00:17:18 - Eligibility: Potential Solutions
00:19:53 - Propensity: The Problem
00:25:22 - Driving Propensity
00:27:33 - Retention
00:31:22 - Attraction, Retention & The "EVP"
00:37:35 - Looking Abroad
00:45:33 - Modernisation And Automation
00:55:55 - The Russian Case Study
01:04:46 - Conclusion
01:05:29 - Channel Update
![Natti Natasha - Quiéreme Menos [Official Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/R57RrTjRGxk/mqdefault.jpg)
I long hesitated to cover this one but after it won the recent Patron poll, here it is with an observation and a caveat. My observation is that while demography gets a lot of attention, it really needs to be looked at alongside questions of eligibility, propensity and retention. How many people you have in a given age bracket overall is really only the start of the story.
My main caveat on this one is that in trying to cover the topic generally, setting out principles that hold up pretty well in multiple contexts, I'm always going to have to skip nation specific context - like the political, legal or social factors that may impact things like recruitment and retention in different individual countries. So apologies if I glance over a factor that is especially relevant to your nation's story when it comes to recruitment and retention.
So far as Russian and Ukrainian recruitment challenges specifically go, I'll take a deeper look during the next Ukraine update video.
Would like to see the "Ukrainian production and resupply (part 2 of RU Def Prod video)" soon if possible. It isn't really clear at the moment what is currently going to Ukraine, let alone what they are doing for themselves. All we hear about is the US Congress blocking funding from the US and Hungary blocking money from the EU...
😊
Hey, Perun. Do you ever watch people like Peter Zeihan? He keeps predicting the fall of China because of collapsing demographics.
There is actually a logic reason why we see old armies on Ukraine. While historically young man was associated with military service, due to need of carrying a lot of weight and physical fit during the combat. It make sense why armies start aging. Especially with development of the military.
In 20+ age people are most productive. They have decades of work before them, kids to make, are also most creative in the zone of innovations. It is why even Russia ban students and even conscripts from being used in offensive. People are conscripted in that age because they are not entangled yet. And TBH also bit dumb.
Then 30+ is average of regular personel. People at that age are either professionals or already involved in other high demand jobs. While 40+ is actually a golden spot for mobilisation. People are still in decent shape (until they are Russian alcoholics with altretism), still remember military service if they were soldiers decade ago but i do not want say that, but gradually they reach expiation date.
But there are also other reasons, like people in that age usually have large families with some number of grandchildren, but usually are not involved in rising kids so directly. As such they tend to have high morale toward fight for future of they families. Especially as they death would have limited impact.
So old armies make sense and we probably would see the same on the West.
Would be interesting to hear your opinion of "russia on fire" incidents and their effect on economic/military stability.
minute 33: while japanese were starving, american soldiers were getting ice cream.
i read the diary of a german soldier, and that was exactly what got him to lose hope in the german military. it was the 1944 ardennes counterattack, the last major german push, and they had conquered a few allied positions, and they found chocolate cakes. and the soldier was like, that's the moment i understood we would lose the war. we didn't have enough fuel to run tanks, and they could afford to send chocolate cakes.
This is why US logistics are second to none. People may joke at forward operating bases with fully functioning burger kings delivered by cargo plane, but they are a sign of just how advanced they are.
@@nobodynoone2500lol yeah sure
@@hmmm2564 is that it?
@@hmmm2564Great contribution to the comment thread. Truly fantastic
I don't know about at FOBs, none that I was on. But KAF absolutely had a BK. I never ate there so I can't comment on if it was anything like stateside.
I will say however that the Italians had wine at (I believe it was) Shindand in their mess so it's not uniquely American.
As a long time fan of the channel, I'm both happy and surprised to see you use my population pyramids. Seeing them getting used makes the effort worth it. If you need some custom made pyramids or demographic data, I'd be glad to help out.
Thanks for the work👍
Thanks so much for your work and your offer. I may take you up on that :)
Love to see these kind of interactions :D
I look forward to population pyramids if Emutopia and Kiwiland
How are they "your" population pyramids? Population pyramids have existed for decades
With all the news & opinion pieces coming out lately about the Chinese military, it really makes Perun's video How Corruption Destroys Armies seem really prescient.
It's also the reason that I'm tempted to talk about Asia in the next week or two...I'm not sure I entirely agree with how some of the coverage is being interpreted and re-reported.
@@PerunAUDo it!
I don't think it's unreasonable to assume that a lot of people have a blindspot in Asia.
I certanly do...
@PerunAU How do you think China will address its serious demographic issues, both for general economic consequences and its military ambitions?
The hotpot missile fuel issue was years ago as the source defected awhile back... Although it's probably the better use of rocket fuel.
@@PerunAU i think i’m not alone when i say that i’d love a deep look at Chinese military capabilities (as much as we can reasonably discern given that China tends to be a bit of a black box)… there’s a real shortage of nuanced, objective, realistic and reasonably digestible (by the layperson) analysis out there
Rare exception to recruiting follows: A neighbor was drafted during the US war in Vietnam. He was rejected as 4F, for obesity (body mass index in the 30s).
He was a body builder.
i think most if not all militaries have exceptions to IBM ratings by now. Like specially for bodybuilders (based on visual evaluations), medic just sees you're ripped, maybe asks for a pose and an autograph, and sends you on your way.
@@chrisca I’m sure you are correct that current practices take a realistic view 🙂. I added my anecdote for amusement.
Lucky dude! Many draftees tried to trick the medical, and they failed, except President Trump and his "bone spurs."
I am a bit disappointed that the US military would use BMI at all since it was never intended to be applied to individuals but rather to populations. A far far better way of determining obesity is to do a body composition eval which is fairly quick and easy and make the judgment based upon percentage of body fat as compared to the percentage of lean body mass ie muscles. BMI has long ago outlived its usefulness, especially after technology has advanced in the field of measuring body composition.
Measuring weight and BMI assumes that a skinny person who is within the BMI levels is otherwise healthy. If you can't do 10 push ups or run a quarter of a mile without a near death experience, you are not healthy regardless of what your BMI is.
Body builders are not actually good soldier material. Ask some veterans who actually had to do long patrols or dig trenches how those steroid pumped up guys with their excessive muscle weight compare in stamina and endurance. Yes he could lift a lot in one go but that's about it.
"One for mom, one for dad, and six for Sergei Shoigu" Haha that's a good one
Housing, housing, housing. This is a biggie for the UK and US militaries amongst others. US barracks and UK Service Family Accommodation are notoriously bad with problems such as mould, an issue that starts with building on contract at the lowest possible cost and made worse by contracting out maintenance to companies that don't face consequences for doing poor jobs. Pay and conditions matter in attracting and retaining people.
Members of the US Air Force get paid extra for every night they have to spend on an army facility,
Provided housing should be a clear benefit for the UK and US militaries in recruitment and retainment and generating new large military families that improve recruitment in the future, given the overheated nature of the relevant housing markets (especially UK). Yet they screw it up with bad execution.
Not familiar with the UK, but here in the US generally there isn't a problem with quality(that's a separate problem of common housing regulations and compliance if it exists) and local affordability as part of a much larger housing shortage that the military is only a part of. Probably like many other places, typically there are both government owned and operated as well as private housing options near bases in the US. Most generally prefer private options for numerous reasons but military pay isn't usually straight monetary compensation that can be spent any way one wants but a combination of lower pay and special benefits where purchases are at much lower costs or an automatic free benefit not available to the non-military.
I don't think that it's legal anywhere to expect anyone including the military to live in substandard housing or live without housing, and I hope that your description of military housing in the UK should be an exception as expected in any developed country.
@@tonysu8860 Amongst US Army friends it's a running joke that soldiers will marry anyone just to get out of barracks. Balfour Beatty, the contractor, is a dirty word amongst enlisted personnel yet they keep winning more contracts despite all the complaints, several investigations and some paltry fines.
Over here I've dealt with problems on soldiers' behalf that I can't go into but would be grounds for legal action against a civilian landlord.
How does the barrack quality impact civvie reproduction rates?
I lived in one of the UK towns where lots of Gurkhas retire. Super nice people, extremely humble and cook great food.
Which town is that? I am from UK but never knew they had specific towns.
@@kth6736 They are often based down in Folkstone, so many of them retire down in Kent.
@@bill8791 thanks. I grew up in Ashford but never really noticed it.
@@bill8791 I meet lots of them in Reading, usually doing security jobs.
@@kth6736 Aldershot in Hampshire has about 6000 Nepalese living in the area, they make up more then 10% of the population, they moved to the area after the law was changed in 2004 allowing Gurkhas and their families to settle in the UK after 4 years of service
It amazes me that the draft age in Ukraine only starts at 27. In the US, the upper limit of the draft is 25.
That's... Odd, surely it'd make more sense to to draft younger personnel given their more limited means of contributing elsewhere (less experience) and less alternatives (I. E lower compensation). A drafted 35 year old is more likely to be an experienced professional/specialist than an drafted 18 year old but both contribute similar being stuck in a trench.
My guess (and it really is a guess) is that Ukraine wants young people to establish themselves and start a family first. Which makes sense considering their demography.
@@carlcramer9269isn't Ukrainian demographics already one of worst in Europe and that was before war now with millions who fled god knows wtf is happening
also look at the demographics pyramid of Ukraine. There are only 1%(like only 400 thousands) of population at the age from 18 to 25(male).@@carlcramer9269
@@shivanshna7618 From memory, Italy has the worst demographics in Europe, followed by Russia and then Ukraine.
Being a Drill Sergeant in the US Army, I challenge what you said about not dropping standards. We ABSOLUTELY drop them to graduate sufficient numbers
would be interesting to know what kind of people you get there, since the bar is so low
@@W8whaaaalje you really see the two extremes. The really good and the really bad. In a effective vetting system you'd have the "really good" and the "okay, we can make this work". Then, when you try to kick them out, the bureaucracy is just enormous. One guy got kicked out of the army within months on graduating. But think about how much money we spend getting them to OSUT and then training them (50K-70K). Thats money that could have been spent on a well vetted applicant or better equipment.
@@carlosthejackal87 that sounds terrible.
How many of these “really bad candidates” do you usually get?
I mean if it's a lower percentage, it might still be worth it.. idk
Hey, Drill! Thanks for training our guys. My basic was at Benning in July-October '07, and the Surge recruits were... veeery substandard: my own platoon went from 40 to 32 original trainees because of weirdos getting chaptered or recycled for one reason or another, with at least 3 more of us at our AIT at Gordon. I can't imagine it's much better now.
@@Deridus its a pleasure man. Yeah its Fort Moore now. It can get pretty crazy. My buddy is a recruiter and one day texted me "I definitely didn't stop by a dumpster on the way to drop of an applicant at the airport so he could throw out all his medications". We see all sorts of crazy shit lol
I do R&D for the Korean military and demographic concerns have become a serious factor in requirements :
Artillery - 2 man SPG team instead of 4 (feasible with better autoloaders, need a separate loader vehicle)
MRL - 1 man team instead of 3(bothersome for the driver-commander but feasible)
Infantry - 4 man squad instead of 9 (requires serious augmentation with unmanned ground vehicles, but we're getting there)
Ballistic Missiles - 3 man team firing dozens of missiles instead of a 3 man team operating 1 TEL (already done)
It's really a mess and I hope it'll get better in the future because I am really despondent about it all.
The infantry one is the roughest. It is sometimes just not possible to reduce your grunts too far. Unmanned vehicles are good multipliers, but you still need eyes and legs to deal with situations, and at some point a couple drones can't replace lost men and the ones that remain just can't do the job.
Don’t worry AI and robotics will save the day and solve these problems. Which will then open up a new problem, how to keep AI from taking over.
4 person squad...yeesh 😅
Ex squaddie here: That's too few. We had eight.
@@T3koner The ROK must have played Battlefield or other military shooter then took the squad system from there lol
Genuinly wondering how it became a ritual for me to sit down for a weekly hour long powerpoint on defence economics for nearly 2 years now.
Might not have the answer but please keep them coming 🙏
The quality and consistency got me hooked, since at the time of the release of "All bling, no basics" the whole media scene around Ukraine was very chaotic. Still watching every single video.
@@uku4171 I got so sick of how american news covers things. They leave so much shit out its annoying, videos like this that help me fill up all the gaps in my knowledge are greatly appreciated
My father was a lifer. If the military would have treated him better, if the VA would have treated him better, he might have encouraged me to enlist. He didn't. He forbid me to join. I see guys getting out now. They are all busted up, disabled, having to do paperwork circles just to get into another paperwork circle... etc.
In hindsight, I think I should have anyways. But when the US military isn't providing the pay, benefits, or care veterans need... you don't enlist.
Do you not trust your fathers experience and judgement?
@@ludaMerlin69 You can trust experience and judgement while ignoring it, because it's biased. Some people thrive in the military despite the conditions and treatment. The best of them usually become part of that reliable backbone that is the NCO corps.
@@ludaMerlin69 Even if someone doesn't have any family or friends in the military, the amount of griping and horror stories from veterans might turn away a bright-eyed kid from enlisting and going for something less deadly or bureacratic. The VA is like any other insurance company, a vast bureacracy that's supposed to help its members but instead focuses on profitting.
Quit blaming the military and start blaming the government. The secretary of veterans affairs is cabinet-level post and it's not under the DOD. That person works directly for the PRESIDENT!
If you don't like the performance of the VA, and I sure is heck don't, you know exactly who to look at.
Spoilers but the military is a part of the governemnt. It is bureaucracy. It is also all these things that are ugly. @stevewhite3424
One of the big things that has changed for serving is medical technology. I have a friend who served in early 1980's, 3 years active duty. No problems, no issues. Fast forward to today he had a heart valve installed by VA and they said he had been born with defective valve. If he was 18 today they would have caught it before enlistment but not in 1980. So as medical tech advances they find defects that disqualify a lot of people and also find people with mental disorders, bi-polar,ADHD etc, that disqualifies them. My father in law was drafted 1958 and served 2 years. He was diagnosed autistic , high functioning, but autistic none the less. Would he be eligible today? No he would not, not even with a draft and this goes across the spectrum on who can you recruit or draft
I wasn't aware autism could get you disqualified from the draft. But it's like you said, autism was nowhere near as well understood back in the fifties, and even if it was, high functioning autistic people aren't that easy to discern unless you're familiar with how autism works. Back then people probably just considered him a little odd.
@@Calvin_Coolage Yea autism will get you except from the draft and can exempt you from volunteering. I’ve had many recruiters tell me theyll ignore my autism to recruit me because I’m high functioning as well
We’ve also developed a habit of medicalizing everything, even when the data supporting diagnosis is inconsequentially thin.
Had a recruiter immediately change his tune when I told him about my adhd meds, and indicated the meds were the dealbreaker not the adhd
@@grahamstrouse1165which is weird as theyd give you something similar and stronger in combat anyways...
Whenever I hear anyone talk about trust in your military, I can't help but smile and think of how this looks in my country, Austria. Our Bundesheer has a nice little saying that goes "God save/protect Austria... Because we sure as shit can't!".
That's somewhat close to the lyrics of the New Zealand national anthem.
@@Clavers1369 Yes, But NZ budget is quite reasonable. They just don't seem to get any value for $ spent! Air "force" with no combat aircraft. Navy with 2 old frigates. etc.
@@qbi4614 Hence the title of the National Anthem: God Defend New Zealand.
PS: New Zealanders are wonderful people.
@@qbi4614 I’m not the most educated on the NZ military, infact I know near nothing. But for how small the NZ frigates are, they actually are formidable ships. Sadly, two of them isn’t enough. 2 frigates, and 2 patrol crafts for your blue water navy is…really pathetic for a island nation next to china
@@stuglife5514 completely irrelevant and inconsequential, but if NZ is "next to China", USA is just down the road
Hey Perun, I think the recent events in Ecuador and in general how other countries in the region build their armed forces to combat well funded criminal organizations could be an interesting topic for a future video.
I concur!
Here, here, hear this @PerunAU 🫡
As someone living in Peru, I’d also like an overview on how Ecuador, Peru, Chile, Bolivia structure their military. I don’t know if bundling all the andean countries makes sense and probably the viewership for a video just on Ecuador or just in Peru would be less (especially as most people here don’t watch English YT channels) but for my part I’d love that.
Same here!
Interesting
More broadly, IMO Perun doesn't usually account for potential adversaries in every country's procurement strategy. Maybe it's too basic a concept to think that thought doesn't happen but of course a country that views national threats from a cartel as more important than an adjoining country or a distant country and the capabilities of that threat shape enlistment and procurement decisions.
Interestingly in the UK, the armed forces were left out of the large civil service pay increases. Easy to see why the contracts are not being renewed when the private sector is offering a large py increase and better hours.
Meanwhile in the US, pay was increased 5.2% this year.
@@user-do5zk6jh1kBritish armed forces increased 5% from August last year plus £1,000 per annum.
There's a reason they were left out of the civil service pay increases. The armed forces are not civil servants and are on a different pay scale, t&c etc.
Lots of different categories of UK government employees who are all dealt with separately, which is why you ended up with countless stories for the past 18 months or so about threatened strikes by different groups.
@@user-do5zk6jh1k yeah, you can get 10-20% more in pay in a private company by switching jobs. I am not surprise that recruitment is down around the world with the sudden military buildup. I am somewhat old, but I remember the military in most Western countries had failed to fill positions in early1980s during the height of the cold war. I guess people are not looking join when the world looks to war.
It's gotten to the point the crews of the Royal Fleet Auxillery (all the support ships) went on strike
That graphic showing real terms increased spend of just 2% 2014-2022 was scary. And that would have excluded much of the inflationary surge of the last 24 months. So UK in real terms likely negative now.
I always thought "This channel would do amazing with outlandish graphical content"; and here we are, a week after the Q&A where it was said "I don't have to do outlandish graphics thanks to the community not demanding them" - then out of nowhere he hits us with the "Perun Funnel". Always full of surprises!
Outlandish is subjective, you seem to be on an extreme end of that bell curve, It's a simple graphic to explain a concept. I don't really see what less you want.
@@advicepirate8673a stick funnel.
He needs to hire from the school of XKCD.
Perun, if no one has pointed you to them already, I'd like to recommend the Campfire Stories by Mikeburnfire and his friend Zach Hazard. Hazard joined the army, went to a fort notorious for bad experiences and bad retention, then got screwed a year before his enlistment was up by sending him to Iraq for three years. He was small arms repairman--basically, a gunsmith for most stuff a soldier could physically carry (more or less the definition of 'small arms' in the US Army). Highly trained, technical position and he was good at it. He wanted to be good at it.
Nonetheless, the military failed to retain him because of the earlier problems and then a couple bad incidents in Iraq. They illustrate your point quite well and provide an illuminating (and entertaining) look at the US military mid-aughts.
I remember listening to some of those stories namely the anger management issue and the tank driver that was abandoned.
@@Pertinaziuos The abandoned tank driver was, I remember, one of the incidents that spurred Zach to not re-enlist.
Love those guys
Opens RUclips, "posted 49 seconds ago." Telepathy is real.😂
That's what we call consistency.
I was 8 minutes off. My telepathy has some lag time😂
The rest of us have been sitting here refreshing the channel page over and over
Black Swan event?
What's the Powerball?!?!?!?!?!? I'll split it 95/5.... that 5% will change your life!🎉
I'd also argue there's another bottleneck. Training. The RAF has been struggling with pilots, not because of applicants (they get something insane like 10,000+ applications for every pilot role), but because the training facilities can't train people fast enough. Which means people might leave faster than they can be trained, or that the prospective candidates might get fed up of waiting for a slot to open, and move on to another job.
It's a matter of supply demand including Private industry. Commercial aviation has always depended on a pool of already trained pilots that don't have to be trained from scratch because of all the pilots they can hire out of the military. But in recent years there has been a shortage of pilots all over partly because as the effects of shrinking air forces after WWII and again after the Cold War wear off. Pilots that entered commercial aviation after the Cold War are now starting to retire and so Private industry is trying that much harder to persuade pilots to leave their military service behind plus there is still a continuing explosion and demand for pilots as commercial airlines expand globally.
The US Marine Corp has a similar program that ALL delayed entry recruits pass through (people who sign up while still in high school planning to enlist after graduation). My son went through this and they had weekly workouts with quarterly competitions. The recruiters acted as a filter, only sending recruits to boot camp after they had demonstrated a certain minimum level of physical fitness. My son did very well in this program, he received a meritorious promotions in school of infantry.
We have something similar here in Sweden, but its more directed at potential officers.
Interesting
I went through that program. I made the decision to join my junior year of high school (that's the second to last year of basic education). It wasn't much I voluntarily showed up to weekly PT session led not by the recruiter but other applicates (poolies). One a month they held some event. It was really necessary for me to come up to fitness standards as I was just a shy nerd with zero physical activity in my life. I didn't ship to boot camp in great shape but I certainly wouldn't have been able to meet the entry standards without it. It's definitely a very cost effective way to allow you to access recruits that otherwise wouldn't meet standards.
@@jwebster126how many hours are the exercises per week?
@@jgw9990 it depends on the recruiting station. most exercise tend to last about roughly about an hour or two at most. at my recruiting station they do 2 PT session a week with min 2 recruiters leading the exercise with most exercise consist of calisthenics.
The British don't just have Gurkas as their foreign recruits, they're just the most famous ones and the only ones with their own units, there are also about 2,000 pacific islanders (Fijians in particular) who are also very good soldiers (and completely bonkers in that way only a good soldier can)
Lol this reminds me on the Queen when she was pleased by the Fijan training for the Olympics by pull and a landrover on zoom during covid. They sure seem to be stacked from those islands, lean fish meat i guess
I wonder how many Saffers they have now. I know a lot went there 20 years ago, but not sure about now.
I've been to Fiji multiple times on surfing trips and am just blown away by the fitness, intelligence and bravery of the people, the men especially. You should see them play rugby! . . . I once complimented a Samoan on how ferocious they were at playing American football and alluding to their former alleged cannibalistic and he said, "Yes, but but you should see the Fijians. Everyone is afraid of them." Truly a warrior race, and smart enough not to sell all their lands to the British but rather to keep and hold them in tribal ownership. . . Senga na lenga, mate!
@@southbirdsouthbirdI used to live on Fiji when I was a child.
My parents took one look at the local rugby team and decided against us joining in.
Thanks Perun, it's not an exaggeration to say this is a highlight of every week and a big part of a recurring fight over whether we can make the early church service 🤷♂️
Denomination?
So this ISN'T your church Service? Sorry, just kidding.
Lord send me a woman I can go to church with and then wants to watch an informative PowerPoint
@@nobodysanything2330 Yeah, because apparently in the inverse order it leads to fights
@@gingernutpreacherAnything but LatAm Catholic I’ll say that.
That "eligibility" variation reminds me of the story of how my Opa avoided a Nazi uniform. They kept lowering the standards and removing exclusions, but he had flat feet and got education just fast enough to stay unsuitable.
Flat footedness has saved many a poor bastard from dying in a ditch it seems.
To become even more prevalent
@@Calvin_Coolage It saved my grandfather, he desperately wanted to fight in WW2, but no doctor would let a flat footed man on the lines. He was literally the best signaller in Canada and made it through Army training, but was posted to a coastal air force base to help the navy monitor for subs.
One fairly interesting example of poor incentives was Sweden a couple of years ago. The basic pay for a soldier (at a time when conscription was inactive) was lower than that of the cleaning personel and people didnt understand why noone joined.
A part of the demographics issue is the reputation of the military within modern context seems to be a global understanding of "paid mercenaries to further add money to the pockets of rich and powerful men." When you hear reports from within your family of discrimination and the like, along with the results of the forever wars, that tends to dissuade anyone from further joining. Especially after everything that continues to come out about each military organization, the venire of "lean mean fighting machine" vanished rather quickly. I always encourage young men to avoid the military now-a-days simply because there is nothing to be gain there, that a dollar library card could not provide.
For context, I come from a military family where my grandfather, father, and brother all served. I did not, but I still helped out as a contractor for software stuff. However, me avoiding serving seems to be a blessing in disguise. Every friend that went in all hated it, and those who were discharged, for one reason or another, always had horror stories about higher and the like.
I keep hearing that term "forever wars" and think that's immoral to think that there is no such thing as a "forever war." But, every war including a "forever war" has to be conducted in a responsible way.
So, for example IMO it's irresponsible to say or think that the US is not in a "forever war" with those whose primary or sole reason in life is to destroy the US and kill Americans. Today, the US brands every person that lives only to kill Americans simply because the country isn't a theological government that believes in the same religion as "terrorists" although that's probably extending the original definition of terrorism a bit.
To not recognize that the US is in perpetual war with every nation and individual who seeks to harm the US is living in innocent fantasy. Just because the US is in a "forever war" doesn't mean the US should be actively seeking out those terrorists and killing
them but in many cases it's a requirement depending on the threat they pose.
MAGA like Trump is dangerous and cause American deaths because by ignoring what happens in distant lands allows those threats to grow and ensures 9/11 will happen again. 9/11 happened because although American leaders knew about the threats of Wasabiism and there were even attacks on the Cole and the US twin towers, still the threat against America was underestimated and bad actors were ignored. And consider that the cost of the Afghanistan war and the elimination of ISIS in Syria cost only about one American life to hostile fire per year, remarkable when you consider the number of military involved during those years.
The isolationism of MAGA is a big danger in America because it believes that US borders can be effective in blocking attempts to harm America. In the world of threat management, it's well known throughout history walls don't work. The Great Wall of China and the Maginot line famously didn't work and both were supposed to be better than the infamous Trump vanity wall at the southern border and the USMCA is more of the same. The only thing that's been proven to work is involvement at the source of the problem fixing problem in whatever way is possible... By diplomacy, economic investment, trade and services or if necessary even military involvement. But isolationism is just the ostrich sticking its head in the ground.
@youngthinker1 absolutely agree. Use your military for the right reasons and the recruitment problem really starts going away in the US.
@@tonysu8860Saying that the enemies of the US are just religious extremists and tyrants, "they hate our freedom", or something to that effect is a very popular explanation among politicians and media. It might even be true in some cases, but it's used so often because it's politically convenient. For one, it justifies war by making said enemies appear as irrational and monstrous; the only possible response to someone willing to fight the most powerful country in the world because he hates freedom so much is force. Secondly, it doesn't require bringing up the US's long and continuing history of bombings, coups, and invasions that have overthrown democracies in favor of dictatorships and dictatorships in favor of anarchic hells, or the armament of regimes that dominate through mass killing, or the policies of economic warfare that intentionally create poverty and famine. Naturally, the people who made or profited from those policies would rather blame anti-American sentiment on anything else.
Our way of being involved in the world is how we got these enemies in the first place.
@@DecidedlyNinjacouldn't have said it better. I feel like this guy listened to everything George W.B. said and took it to heart. "They hate us for our freedom"..... if so, then they must also be jealous at how quickly our congress was able to erode our freedoms since 9/11 to keep us "safe".
And I know many young people who served in the military who enjoyed their service and are leading productive lives.
Hey Perun!
I'm a long time follower, basically since the beginning of the invasion. I'm also an active duty Marine and your videos have been invaluable in clearing up the ongoing crisis and a bunch of other defense/strategy topics that are right up my alley.
I wanted to touch on your comment in the beginning talking about how the Marine Corps hit its recruiting goals.
While yes, they did it was also a bit like robbing Peter to pay Paul. They pulled from the next years cohort to make up the shortfall in the target year cohort. The Marine corps in general cycles through something like 75% of its first term Marines and has consistently struggled to maintain numbers through at least my whole 12 year career so far. Another interesting problem we are experiencing is the "middle management" level that is struggling to retain at record levels resulting in a large bottom cohort, small middle and way too many at the top due to alot of force design decisions that arbitrarily promoted too many higher enlisted to meet their new force design ideas without coordinating with congress to increase the budget.
The next few years will be interesting for the DOD here in the USA but to your point with what the Aussies did, throwing 50k at people generally is a good way to win the retention fight and while there are always different ways to encourage people to stay in, but money will always reign Supreme. Historically the Marine corps has been the worst of all the services when it comes to bonuses.
Anyways, super stoked I was able to offer my 2 cents! Love your channel, keep putting out good stuff!
"throwing 50k at people generally is a good way to win the retention fight"
Retention survey: Do you want more money? Yes/No
Given the guarded details of their background perhaps this is not the first time this powerpoint has seen the light of day :-)
My words fell on deaf ears numerous times as I told the Canadian armed forces that if they solve their retention issues, recruitment will solve itself. Satisfied memebers will always be the best recruiters.
I think a big contributing factor - especially now - is that there is almost no trust in leadership now. Talk to any veteran - especially combat veterans - and they are less likely to complain about rigorous training or combat conditions, and more about being hindered and demoralized by bureaucratic stupidity and an antagonistic leadership. Especially after Kabul, a lot of guys that were over there have started questioning if their service was even worth it. And that's not even talking about the neglect or outright hostility towards veterans.
It's not exactly enticing to leave a relatively comfortable lifestyle to serve when you might be denying other opportunities for yourself in favor of dealing with a hostile bureaucracy both during and after service.
My experience of the UK military and recruitment issues are.
Accommodation/housing is shamefully bad.
The UK media is fairly anti military so potential recruits dont see much positive news.
Retention while serving is non existent. Bullying and harassment is rife.
The treatment of veterans and mental health is lip service also.
I wouldn't advise anyone young to join now.
Also wrens
I've seen recruiting and retention from both sides in the US. There are so many issues with the US recruiting pipeline that it will take many hours to address. I will say one thing about retention. Most people leave military service because of the hardship of military life. An 18 year-old unmarried recruit can pick up and move every 2 years and deploy to a combat zone with little notice. When a soldier's first contract is about to expire, they're probably in their mid-20s with a wife and a couple of children. The older soldier is forced to do a cost benefit analysis on behalf of their family. Last time, I checked it costs about $15,000 to recruit and $75,000 to train a soldier. Giving a $50,000 bonus to a soldier to re-enlist for the same term of service seems like a bargain (especially since 12-14% don't finish initial training). There needs to be more analysis on the life cycle of mid/late term military careers. I think the "up-and-out" mentality needs to be eliminated from the US military. Some pilots join the Air Force to fly jets, not wear shiny a star on their epaulets and sit behind a desk all day.
The work environment is also a huge deal. Most service members are far less replaceable than they are treated, and those who choose to end their contract often have that in the forefront
Most pilots in the military should be warrant officers whose job is flying. So, for example, you don't lose most of your helicopter pilots when they get their mandatory 2nd sea tour that almost always is non-flying.
But up or out was instituted because of real issues involving mid-rank personnel (like Majors) who were at most marginally competent at their current rank occupying all the slots for Majors until they dropped dead or retired. See the Peter Principle. So it needs to be changed carefully.
@@BlueGamingRage It's definitely the reason I left.
Honestly the big problem here is the peter principle. Without up and out you'll tend to get a situation of a ballooning of Middle managers who have no idea what they're doing or why but were lucky enough to join a bit faster so now the people that want to move up are screwed because the pipeline is clogged.
@@moalboris239 That was exactly the problem with the US Army in the late 1800s that I understand caused the up or out to happen. You have a stellar captain you want to promote, but all the major slots are full of plodders.
Based on anecdotes I’ve heard, if the US Military wants to fix the recruiting issues, they’d need to do a lot to fix the toxic culture in their leadership.
And the Cancel Culture in the ranks.
Lot of nepotism from what i heard.
@@danielclawson2099lots of examples throughout history of generals inspiring their troops by leading them into battle. Not really the issue here though. The example has to be set day to day with a good, professional work ethic and actually caring about your staff
Which they won't.
I just realized the Perun Funnel can also be applied to Dating quite effectively
Hate this ageing demographic, not being able to recruit people issue. Governments keep complaining without doing anything to actually solve these issues due to their own greed. Without a family or home it's no wonder people don't want to risk their life in a fairly low pay job.
🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🙏🏻🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
🔱🔱🔱🔱🔱🔱🔱
Yeah it is really retarded but just goes to show the fundamental problem with the concept of a government. The power hungry people in it only care for their own carreer and the money they spend is not theirs so who cares if it all goes to shit, they already made luxurious pensions for themselves.
They're actually actively making the situation worse when it comes to families that breed good recruits. They sow racial and political division and treat people as disposable garbage, yet they're expecting the populace who are made poor and dumb through their horrible policies to bring about healthy, mentally stable, well adjusted individuals. Also doesn't help the entire west has taken to painting patriotism as an evil and also demeaning white people as inherently problematic. They also demean men and try to psyop women into roles that prevent them from being homemakers which also makes them put off motherhood later and later in favor of careers.
They want fields of corn while crop dusting with salt.
The problem is we ended conscription . Make every one do 3 or 4 years and problem is solved
Second problem is underfunding because a new $ 400,000,000 football stadium is sexy & gets votes where as adding $ 400,000,000 to the military budget gets you howls of protest & endless arguements to justify the expense and even worse, no photo oppertunity just before the election.
By & large, the bulk of those who join volunterarily are the children of the militaary & the clowns who have played one too many games of Fortunes of War.
However once you are in then a lot will realise that military service has a lot to offer, the biggie is job security that does not exists any more in private enterprise .
@@I-have-a-brain_and-use-it It's not just military families and first person shooter gamers. Many poor people join the military as last resort, as they have no choice to avoid being homeless; to give them time to figure out their next steps. Most of such low income individuals, end up as cannon fodder, as they lack the skills to join any other branch, other than the lowest ranks in the army, ending up on the front-line of conflicts. The only reason conscription (draft) is avoided, is none of these modern wars benefit the majority of the American people. Many of these conflicts serve only the personal and financial interests of politicians, corporations and few wealthy elites of society. Any attempt to force people to fight abroad would result in a rebellion especially an armed one in the US. People are no longer stupid enough to buy the politicians lies about fighting for liberty, freedom, justice and democracy etc. This a common theme elsewhere; as why they too dropped conscription like Canada, UK, France, and other Western countries.
I was desperatly waiting for a rogue trader video, but an 1h long of defense and economics will do just fine ! Keep up the good work !
The aging population one is interesting because its only a very recent problem, but it its going to hamper nearly every modern military. For the first time in history, many major militaries across the world are shrinking. And I am glad you mentioned the US obesity issue. That combined with drug use are the two biggest eligibility issues here in America after the age one. The last 10 years have been miserable in US Army recruiting command as most recruiters are involuntarily selected. I had a few friends that tried getting out of it as soon as possible.
I gamed with a guy, went from a combat deployed MP, was voluntold to be a recruiter and after a few months of it, he transferred to work in the military prison, which is apparently still better than being a recruiter.
As a South Korean, I closely know three people who would also qualify as "engineering and related technologies". The first one majored in technology education (as in high school teacher) and ended up in an anti-air battery. He would sometimes tell me how the gatling AA cannon on his station worked, because of course his college education was about being a teacher in high school. The second one has majored electrical engineering from one of the most prestigious universities in this country, and after he had his BA he served in a certain "communications and intelligence" unit where he kept his long hair and wasn't supposed to "look like a soldier" on public. The third one also majored electrical engineering, and he served in a radar station meant to look for incoming North Korean ships. He would jokingly tell me how his unit slacked on the marksmanship of his service rifle, because his job was to look into the screen "till the end".
All three of them look just average, like people in this photo - 1:36. RoK military already takes in thousands of nerds, trains them for weeks, and then deploys them as technical specialists who use more technical kinds of stuff than their infantry stuffs for their time of service. It's expected that there will be less and less South Korean male young adult, and more and more of them will be nerds, just like my acquaintances. No wonder 48:05 Hanhwa is developing the future upgrade for the K-9 Thunder SPH (a.k.a. the K9A3) to run on three crews, down from current number of five.
I don't think South Korea would have manpower issues as it has conscription and serious amount of civilian population already received military training. Here in Turkey we are same, our army would reach millions of size within few weeks, it is just a matter of logistics not manpower. While on the other pretty much all western countries have no civilian population with miltary training expect US alone which has millions of veterans and could draft them. European war readiness is laughably bad with reports like UK can not sail it's carriers because of crew shortages. I really don't know how it could be this bad..
*This problem is touched upon partially in 'The crucible of war: Dutch and British military learning processes in and beyond southern Afghanistan'* the doctor thesis of (back then) LT and allround mvp Van der Vorm
3:15 As for that phenomenon, I can thank my first real job to that. Recruiters were at one point so desperate they went to universities, searched for specific classes and basically tried to lay in ambush outside the lecture room.
Why? Because if you studied GIS back then when it was emerging, you could expect to make twice the median wage in the civilian sector almost during the first year, plus a car on the business, good pension and yadda yadda. That's how much of a shortage there was.
The military offered roughly half of that in base pay, plus demanded to be able to send you abroad plus obviously military discipline is not as convenient as a day at the office. A bunch of 18-22 year olds aren't going to calculate what it'll be if you use all the extra benefits, they just want the money. So the military had basically two guys, and once they were on mandatory cooldown, a large amount of excrement had hit the fan.
Missing the timeslot for said lecture I, the failing student whose life was in a bit of a state of collapse, was left outside and basically got jumped by the recruiter. So I lied somewhat about what I could already do, threw in a few Arabic words, was offered what I thought was a ludicrous amount of money for 4 years, said 'ludicrous +30%' out of depressed spite, was surprised to be told anything other than 'gtfo you arrogant student twat' and I signed the next morning.
Impertinent question, feel free to ignore - was it a good deal? Did it work out for you? For the military? The way you tell the story makes me think it was.
@nvelsen1975 What about now? I'm finishing college in a couple months and kept my options open (considering military, civvies or EU/Outside EU). GIS aplications seem to be crucial for military use, but dunno if its worth the commitment time, not being able to see my partner everyday...
@@carlcramer9269
Well I wasn't exagerating when I said my life was in a state of collapse. My background is on of evangelical weirdos, and besides the bad choices that brings (abusive partner, alcohol abuse, fighting) I'd butted heads with the church elder over a gangrape in our community that he 'fixed' by banishing the victim and keeping it away from the police. I disagreed, loudly, so I went from his prodigy to being excommunicated basically.
Goodbye my whole social network...
After signing, came training at the officer academy at breakneck speed at a huge number of hours a week. Call it speedrunning.
I mentioned I had lied about what I could do already? I'd be found out inevitably so there was no way out rather than to make up the difference in my spare time. Turns out you study harder if you MUST.
It was exactly what I needed at the time: No more failing to choose or bad choices, because there are no choices. Call it boot-to-ass therapy.
Saw things. Did a few things. Would've been okay for most, but not me.
Psych support helped me deal with my background and experiences, basically put me back together for free (beats spending 20-30K on civilian therapy). Therapy was extremely humbling as I was among a group of older guys who without exception had all had it worse.
Didn't extend after 4 years. I wanted to pass to the reserves, but no officer position open, so I was 'recontracted' (meaning demoted) to pfc and made money on the side as that for a few years. That took care of my weekends: No relapse to a party lifestyle.
During that I went back to uni, used to radical change I took a way different subsection than what I studied before, fully work-oriented this time. My dumb ass actually graduated.
Due to army salary: No student debt, plenty savings. But same crappy labour market. Which is privilege in an age group that's broke af.
Did what I had learned by then: Got angry at the problem and fixed it.
Bought an absolute dump to live in&renovate for profit, went 'Well then I'll MAKE the job' and started my own company.
Both worked out well.
11/10, horrible experience, absolutely saved my life. 😆
@@nvelsen1975 Oh, that was quite a story, thanks for sharing. Seems it worked out for you, but less so for the military who didn't get the worker they wanted. But society got someone functional (you), so overall a big net win for all of us! Hugs and take care!
@@chrisca
I don't know enough about the field anymore. GIS has become established by now. Less shortage.
The partner stuff? Mate it's a bonus. If someone's going to leave you over skipping a few weekends: Good. It would've never lasted into a lifetime relationship anyway, the sooner you find out the better.
Plus if not, the camp's computer room had its own server for porn, so.... 😆
Adding to downloads for my commute. Thanks for the presentation, you've really helped us navigate the information space more critically, and become more informed.
One of the other benefits of unmanned or less-manned systems is actually logistics. If you don’t need to supply as much food to forward deployed personnel, you reduce the demands on your logistical infrastructure and can save on manpower there as well. Drones also have this benefit even though they need a pilot. Because that pilot is remote, they can be stateside where it is much easier to supply them. And being stateside also makes it much easier to improve their living conditions and increase retention.
Cyber/Electronic warfare is on a massive scale in Ukraine, we don't see it because it isn't flashy. Even relatively simple GMLARS have trouble with jamming when the Russians slowly adapted. The idea to lean on drones to fill manpower requirements rather than be a force multiplier is false economies.
Logistics becomes uber easy when nutrition can be instantly outsourced to a thai kid with a scooter and a foil bag.
Unmaned systems come with the massive advantage of the pilot being alive every time he crashes.
Thats alot of manpower savings
The "Perun Funnel" reminds me of a 4-stage HEPA filter, where particles are screened out by progressively tighter filters until very little gets through. Another insightful and winning episode in the always interesting "How Armies are Destroyed" series. As always +1
Last time I was this early, the Moskva was a surface-level combatant.
let that sink in
* wildly gesturing man in suit * WRITE THAT DOWN
My God! That recruitment funnel is a truly inspired bit of graphic design!
I thought it was a poor choice. That's just not how funnels work.
Marketing has used the purchase funnel for many decades.
Hello Perun, with almost 2 years after Germany's 100 billion Euro announcement to modernize the Bundeswehr, would you consider a look at what has and hasn't been accomplished so far?
They didn't even spend everything yet 😂
Anything@@daseinzigwahrem
Europe in general is rearming, so this question could be broadened to cover all European/NATO countries armament.
That would be a veru short video.
Oh please no. I can't take another opener like the one he did in the first video, and i'm really scared of him saying that all of his worst predictions came true and the truth is in fact much worse, all wrapped in razor-sharp sarcasm. Please have mercy.
Thank you Perun. I grew up in Miami Beach Florida and remember most of the young men got drafted to fight in Vietnam. Horrible times. Would you consider doing an episode on that conflict? Thanks again Perun, I really appreciate your time and knowledge. Hope you have a wonderful week! ❤
Random thought at the time Perun was talking about private airlines poaching military-trained pilots:
Maybe militaries and private airlines should get together and work towards a mutually beneficial system so not only don’t they have to compete, they can even help fill each other’s gaps.
Yeah, it’s very *_general_* idea, no idea on the details. *_Of course_* there will be conflicts and problems that will need to be worked out. But it may be better than what they currently have now.
In a lot of places, cargo pilots fall under more "national guard" or part time type systems, and a lot of those guys are professional airline pilots. The thing is that big cargo planes and commercial planes fly far more similarly, and the skillset is closer. Fast-mover pilots tend to just stick to what they know. Since a lot of junior airline pilots need to spend their own unpaid time on simulators to keep their mandatory hours up, it's a way for some to stay current.
You only have a limited window as a commercial pilot, one that's always at risk of closing due to a medical condition. This coupled with the fact that pilot training takes a long time means that you have to get the bag as soon as possible.
You only have a limited window as a commercial pilot, one that's always at risk of closing due to a medical condition. This coupled with the fact that pilot training takes a long time means that you have to get the bag as soon as possible.
Most of the demographic issues in modern societies comes down to forcing both parents to work to sustain a household. As long as that continues populations will continue to decline. So essentially its short term economics vs long term population.
As if the elites care. They don't experience any of the downsides. They'll just bring in whoever from wherever to keep their machines running.
Best thing to do is leave the system and go back to traditional lifestyles
Also mass immigration which pushes down wages and pushes up the cost of housing. It's a massive problem in Western Europe and all English speaking countries.
Hey, who knows. Maybe in a few decades. Family size will start to increase again. When people have more kids to send into the workforce to help cover cost. They’re already starting to do away with child labour laws in some of the states here.
Abortion comes first IMO.
@@amsfountain8792 too many killed that way. It's terrible
It's remarkable that the highlight of my Sunday afternoon has become listening to an hour+ PowerPoint presentation.
Another riveting presentation - Thanks Perun.
I have a daughter serving in the U.S. Navy nearing the end of her first enlistment. She's vacillating between exiting now and staying in for 20 years. At 5'6", 115 lb, drug and alcohol free, and single, she's being trained and used in an "IT" specialty. The need of the Navy for that job is acute.
Get out. From experience, life is much better outside than in. She's got free college now, should use it. Current military life is not worth what you put in for it. And there's nothing urgent enough occurring to warrant a real duty to cause.
There's plenty of IT expertise at many different levels in the private sector.
I'm sure the US military is doing plenty of private contracting for everything that is in short supply.
Your daughter should consider the possibility of the best of both worlds... If she has an entrepreneurial spirit, look into leveraging her existing reputation and expertise into starting her own company or joining up with a private company that does military contract work.
But if the really enjoys the military life, then re-enlist.
Whatever her decision, I'm sure all of the audience that values US military service thanks her for her choices and her Service.
@@tonysu8860 ^^^ this. I have a buddy who was in IT while in the Marines and he makes way better money now being a contractor.
Money isn't the end all be all of life but it's sure better than what she gets now.
All I'm saying is I don't want to see more young people waste time in their life being lead by donkeys and breaking their bodies for the ungrateful.
There is nothing like relevant work experience for gaining good positions. Navy currently has lucrative SRB bonuses for IT ratings.
IMO If the daughter can gain key cybersecurity training and experience plus retention bonus, and complete college level degree for same (AMU/APUS) while on active duty, then she should continue service until the military can no longer compete with civilian job offers ...
IT people with security clearances (particularly TS) typically have no problem finding work that pays well. Money isn't everything, if she is still enjoying the lifestyle it is fine to stay.
New Perun Let's Gooooo! I've been looking forward to this topic for ages.
During my 13 years of working for DoD Dependent Schools OCONUS, the U.S. military switched to an expeditionary model of deployments where previously the whole family was stationed overseas, to where units would be unaccompanied by dependents for 6 month rotating deployments. School student populations dropped and (anecdotally) so did family size - meanwhile, divorce rates increased. This process change, while saving money for the military in the short term, decreased the military member's career incentive of a guaranteed job with cradle to grave care for a family of unrestricted size.
Also worth noting is family members are targets today because war has changed. While I served in USAFE the Red Army Faction etc bombed bases now and then but terrorism was less routine. Today families overseas just offer more soft targets not least because enemy cultures were allowed and encouraged to permeate Europe which looked very different forty years ago before indigenous culture was systematically attacked (no small thanks to decades of Soviet subversion) and Europeans taught their indigenous cultures should yield to all foreign influences.
@@Comm0utYou say this like anyone with a pipe bomb would get 6 inches inside a base like Rammstein without getting ventilated by a dozen MPs. This is very true for our more expedtionary bases in hot zones like the Middle East and now increasingly East/Southeast Asia, who I would argue are way more at threat because the primary enemies in that region do not care about civilians either.
Yet another grand slam. Really cracking open the case of recruitment issues and also outlining a couple ways to improve the situation while also analysing the pros and cons. Great video.
I served France in the “Legion Etrangère” for 5 years.
A very interesting experience.
But times have been changing a lot.
Perun is the best military channel right now
In a video about Iran he didn't even mention that they have F-14 Tomcats, still flying, which is the most interesting story about their military... Self-censorship.
@@brannkos Iranians aren't stupid, they also had purchased motherlode of spares and F-14 by today's standard is very much analogue/mechanical aircraft. Maintenance hog at best of times, but not a dealbreaker. And there's world of difference between 'flying' and 'combat ready'.
@@piotrd.4850they still bolted hawk aa on them
A while back Perun brought on retired US General Ben Hodges, who is on record saying things like "Ukraine might take Crimea by end of 2023".....then brings him on again in December and doesn't even ask him about why so many "experts", Hodges included, got that so wrong, and are the "experts" doing any self-reflection about their thoughts on the conflict. He had a video about "offensives" where he basically stated "we're not gonna talk about earlier offensives because those are old news, lets talk about what's going on RIGHT NOW....lol Russian losses @ Avdiivka". This way he could completely dodge having to address the abysmal failure of Ukraine's "summer counteroffensive". Perun doesn't touch topics that would be uncomfortable to his audience of predominantly-western pro-Ukrainian cheerleaders. He does a very good job of producing slick, largely informative videos, but IMO they give a false impression because they are exhaustively detailed yet have GAPING HOLES in the picture they paint.
@@brannkos I agree the F-14 is an important part of the story, and so I discuss them and the efforts that keep aircraft from the Shah's era flying ruclips.net/video/Cy95hMoMhrY/видео.htmlsi=O_qhk-BvyF43hsBR&t=1421
I was glad to see you cover the downside of the "we can make up for people with technology argument" . I was served on M1 tanks and your comment regarding less people to do maintenance was spot on. You additionally have less people available for watch standing so everyone gets that much less sleep. However the area where I think (more technology = less people) philosophy is the most dangerous is the Navy. While I served in the Army I am a bit of a naval history buff. It does not seem to me that many "modern" vessels (like the LCS), where they brag about how few crew they need to operate it, will have enough personnel people to simultaneously continue to fight the ship and carry out casualty collection/treatment and conduct damage control in the event of a significant hit.
Armies that have access to a vast and possibly overwhelming resource pool like China's population of about 1/4 of all humanity can think in terms of overwhelming the other side with pure numbers of people.
But even China has to pause considering the effectiveness of militaries like the US that has access to technology that can repeatedly exterminate waves of humanity. It's not reasonable to believe that pure numbers can overwhelm an adversary that has a massive advantage in technology although a fight could become interesting if one side was not prepared.
@@tonysu8860 While China still has a huge population relative to its neighbours and competitors (except India), I feel like simplifying them down to "human waves" is probably overdoing it. The last time China fought a war with that kind of tactic was 70 years ago in Korea, which is also the last time they fought a significant war, and China has changed a lot since then.
In addition, considering China's demographics problem, I think they would want to sacrifice as little of their current generation of young people as possible in a conflict, wouldn't you?
This comment about China also kinda had only tangential relevance to the good point made by the OP about crew practicalities. Sometimes you just need more people running around to fulfill crisis duties.
Due to the lack of manpower, the Royal Navy can not send any of the aircraft carriers out to the Red Sea area because the supply and support ship that finished multi-million pounds upgrades and repairs does not have enough civilian staff/sailers to be deployed so the aircraft carries can not be deployed.
Even when the aircraft carriers are deployed depending on the area of the world it's going to the Royal Navy has to dock ships and even then ask NATO and/or the USA to supply personnel so the ships can go to sea with enough sailers.
Due to government budget cuts (before the inflation cuts and over-spending cuts), the Royal Navy has been asking to cut even more people from its payroll - which it has done this year - QED even less staff to serve on ships.
Add to this the UK government has orders for 13 surface ships and 6 submarines (some are being built now) which they have no service members or money to even pay for and deploy them.
And theres sayings that to even join the navy takes painfully long, since the recruitment is done by a 3rd party private company
Britain isn't a great power anymore, we are spent, like an empty bottle. Brexit showed how hollow our sovereignty really is. Time to get real and start integrating capabilities with our European neighbours (our friends)
You deserve our utmost respect. For your deep studies, witty comments, scholarly analysis! It’s always fun to listen to you and initiates deeper thinking on all issues by all including sundry like me. Love your Perun funnel. It structures all aspects in the sequence of logical existence. 🙏🙏
One of the major issues with retention is that being in the military just kind of sucks in a lot of ways. A childhood friend of mine is currently serving in the USN as a submarine nuclear technician. Once he gets to the end of his contract the retention bonus is something like $50k cash plus a $10k/year raise and hardly anybody takes it. Private sector poaching is definitely part of it, but people also don't really want to live on submarines. It's isolating, disorienting, claustrophobic, and from what he's told me extremely monotonous. Submarines may be the most dramatic version of this problem, but it exists in every MOS to a degree, and there's not much the military can do to change that, however much they improve the food and housing.
So many of the military issues have a simple, thought not easy to implement, solution. Like moldy barrack? Pretty obvious solutions there.
But those ones like the one you mentioned are the really hard problems to solve. There's no way to not have life aboard a submarine not be miserable without making it like a cruise ship and really ruining the military ability of the submarine. Even if you triple their salary its still something you'd just want to stick out for a few years to put cash in the bank then leave.
Was in the Korean Army. Sentry duty was a shit experience as new recruits stop coming as a 1 for 1 replacement for those who complete their service. 1 hour per day quickly became 2 hours total or more.
High quality material and expertise delivered by a competent communicator will always be in demand, no matter the format.
I look forward to Perun's eventual video "How Armies Destroy Armies."
One other big element of unmanned elements is that it gives the implication of safety and "at a distance" to potential recruits feel less at threat when they join. Your force being seen as capable stands a heavy element in attracting people. If you have a reputation of attrition and failing to give the right kit, people can lose confidence in joining. There is a large amount of recruits who have a different 'risk tolerance'.
Another fascinating lecture. I look forward to Peruns weekly post and whatever the topic Im never disappointed. Truth be told I usually listen to each lecture multiple times and pick up something new each time.
We in Ukraine are also experiencing problems with mobilization and they are quite serious. Someone may have the impression that our main problem is that we have no one left to fight, but this is not at all the case. A significant part of the population is not affected by the war at all, with the exception of periodic attacks by drones and missiles. According to current legislation, many have a deferment from military service even now. In some cases, this is justified by the critical importance of their work for the functioning of the state. But not all categories of citizens who are currently not being drafted fall under this definition. There are already changes to the law on this matter, but politicians are not particularly eager to adopt them. This will still have to be done, given that we have no plans to give up and Putin decided to fight to the last Russian. People need rotation and rest. Without this, even the most persistent and motivated lose the will to fight. However, the new law still has many shortcomings and does not provide for the use of prisoners even for engineering work. One way or another, if nothing dramatic happens, this war may well continue for two years with the same intensity, and judging by how difficult it is to actually advance somewhere for both us and them, the result will be determined by whoever suffers the greatest irreparable losses.
Thanks for the perspective
Clownensky muppet
It is regularly frustrating to hear from critics of US aid for Ukraine talking about the current average age of Ukrainian army personnel being 45 or something, as though you have run out of young people and are scraping the bottom of the barrel. I'm always pained to point out that there are plenty of younger people, but as you say, they are fulfilling other vital roles for the state, as well as other deferment reasons (having young children etc). You can just look at the average age of an infantryman and then say, "See?? It's hopeless for Ukraine! They're running out of people to fight!"
I like when people on the interwebs for some reason think that most of the civilian population isn't affected by the war in any way. The stress from the war is impacting the mental and physical health, people consume a shit ton of Xanax and the like. The prices are high, the wages haven't changed in three years. The economy is in the shitter. But yeah, civilians are having it so easy.
Regarding he newest mobilization law (which was plagiarized from several discarded Russian law draughts) our glorious -incompetent- president and his ruling party of clown comedians had shat the bed again. As they always do since 2019. They're are so afraid for their ratings even during the war they're scared to draft guys younger than 27 yo or women. Their attempts to cancel the health deferments (which were instated in Soviet times for a reason) are laughable and further discredit the mobilization. Corruption and nepotism in recruiting offices is not going away if you scolded it on Twitter
I suspect a lot of Russian prisoners would be happy to stay in Ukraine & provide engineering assistance rather than return to mother Russia…
Hi Perun! Just wanted to mention that I'm personally really looking forward to the episode youve spoken about before on USN procurement around the LCS and the Zummwalt classes. Hopefully it will not be too far away!
When i enlisted into the US marines it was standard for the recruters to have a physical training day once a week with everyone he had gotten to sign. The average time from signing contract to going to basic training was 3 months. So even if at the time of signing you were a bit behind on physical fitness you had 3 months to get up to standards and you had a marine to guide and train you. Granted this was 14 years ago.
Boot.
😉
I'm in the UK and my nephew joined the navy
He attended a course which counted as higher education for 18 to 24 months, can't remember exactly to ensure everyone who had been accepted was up to standard. They called it the play station generation course!
Idk about the Marine Corp but I will say the Army improving its PT would help big time with retention. I know the army switched the PT test but I am not convinced that would translate to actual PT changing. When I was in it was literally just everyday you're sprinting and doing pushups and situps. If you're injured and have a profile, no you don't. If your unit goes to the gym, guess what one guy decided to slack off so now no one gets to use the gym. Everyone I served with developed pretty serious injuries that required tons of PT. For me, it was broken legs that ended up not healing right so now I can't run for exercise. If I hadn't been injured I would've gone for warrant officer pilot. I doubt this will change anytime soon, it's the culture in basic training and overall in units. If you're injured you're lying or exaggerating to slack off. Promotions and schools are tied to PT scores, if you're injured you dont get a good score and you therefore miss out on that board or miss out on going to airborne or whatever(assuming you've healed up and want to go ofc). And there's also a weird tradition of just letting injuries stack up for better disability. Like some ppl in my unit boasted of being injured cuz theyd get more disability. It was weird.
Also an article Perun showed on screen had a quote that said the GI Bill isn't an effective tool anymore cuz companies offer that sorta thing now too. I have no clue what that dude is talking about cuz student loan debt is only getting worse not better and though companies do sometimes offer to pay for school, usually its for a masters degree and it's pretty limited. My company will only pay $10,000 a year towards a masters degree, which is about two classes a year at my school or 6 credits. Its 30-36 credits for a masters degree so thats gonna take awhile. The GI Bill is the single best way to get a college degree imo providing you can and are willing to serve. Guess I'm one of those 62% of veterans who'd suggest serving lol.
It's really fun to compare this one with hiring practices of private sector companies and realize just how much overlap there is. Workplaces rely on ever more specialized systems to keep running smoothly and the military is very much not exempt from that.
At lesst the military doesn't post 'entry-level' job postings that require ten years of experience and a degree plus certifications.
1 for Mum. 1 for Dad. And 6 for Sergei Shoigu 😂😂😂😂😂😂
Wow. Best episode ever, this one did not disappoint. Optimising the (preferably-) symbiotic relationship between a nation-state and its military-industrial complex is a pretty crucial piece of context behind the existence of pretty much all of us who could possibly be listening on this channel. Lots to think about.
Hi Peru, At 46 mins you spoke about 'Do more with less' and spoke about the medical system, Apart from my interest in things military, it is often the crossover observations and wisdom that you provide that makes me a dedicated follower of your channel. Thank you and keep up the great work
Using net migration to make up for decreased fertility is keeping the fireplace warm by burning wood from the walls. It's willful negligence at best, active subversion at worst.
It’s just a meeting of interests for the largest political groups in the country. Keep wages lower, increase housing prices, tax us more to pay for their programs and on top of it you get a bunch of low information voters that are easily manipulated. It’s a mix of idiocy and subversion. Mostly idiocy imo. The people at the top only think a few steps ahead not 20, unfortunately.
The system is designed to do, what it does.
@@ludaMerlin69 Exactly.
How does migration affect housing prices? That's like, 75% an issue with zoning laws and parking mandates (at least in the US)
@@kylejohnson6775 Reddit meme. The cause is high demand and institutional investors having cheap credit with which to speculate on housing.
I read recently that one of the reasons China were unwilling to be involved in Afghanistan was due to how they suspected the One Child Policy would have increased anti war sentiment. If you only have one child, and boys are valued more highly, it would be even more damaging to them to see young men die in a foreign war.
Wow, truly fascinating stuff! There's a lot more to know about the topic that I'd ever realized. Thanks for teaching us stuff we didn't even know we wanted to know!👏
Thank you for another entertaining & informative video - special thanks for the Perun Funnel model. So adaptable!
This is again an excellent Perun episode on a issue that is fundamental to anyone who has any interest in military procurement and enlistment which should include anyone who is a taxpayer, knows a person of enlistment age or has a member of the family serving orhas an interest in national security.
It should be interesting to hear there might be different models of recruitment beyond basic conscription or voluntary.
Although not in much detail, factors that are considered properly sizing a national and military budget to meet concrete requirements is touched upon.
How a prospect is selected and perhaps shaped to meet service needs is also briefly discussed.
Lots of food for thought for just about everybody which is sorely needed throughout the world.
Damit, its already past 2am here. Would love to watch it now, but alas, I need sleep before work tomorrow. Thanks for working hard to keep getting these videos out. I look forward to them every week.
Slava Ukraine.
I watch your videos religiously every Sunday Perun. Have a great week! ^-^
The 'Thumbs Up' was at 4.4K when I started watching, 5.5K by the time the video was over and 5.6K when I started typing this post. Perun, you have a strong following. Cheers, mate!!
"Our sires' age was worse than our grandsires'. We, their sons, are more worthless than they; so in our turn we shall give the world a progeny yet more corrupt."
- Horace, Odes book III, ca. 20 BC
It should also be noted that in the case of the samurai, by the late Tokugawa era (shortly before the modernization of Japan in the latter half of the 19th century) most samurai were not professional combatants but were mostly bureaucrats with some combat training in their youth.
Ironically, the biggest weakness for the feudal system for many cultures were a prolonged period of peace.
"old good young bad" is an argument that every generation loves to come back to, no need for you to dig that deep for ancient quotes from a dead culture.
I really enjoy your updates and breakdowns, they are always well thoughtout and insightful! I would like to say that being from a large military family, I think the military has more of an influence on you because your around it already and are used to being around and apart of it your whole life. I also wanted to serve like many of my family, though I ended up not being eligible due to some legal reasons (that could've been waived), but still was rejected and that was right after 9/11. If I were in the same situation today I don't know if I would able to serve even with the drop in eligibility standards, while I don't agree with most the standards we have today, I think we need strong standards and training, but I do think things having to do with some legal issues and similar things shouldn't be taken into account in certain cases, some of the best soldiers have had rough lives and had criminal convictions on their record! People like myself, that would potentially make good recuits, are often held back due to mistakes made when we were young, desperate or just using bad judgement, hell we may just have been in the wrong place, at the wrong time and are barred from serving our country over something that in the grand scheme of things should be a passing phase that doesn't follow you for life, even if you fully paid your debt to society! I just believe standards should focus on actions and abilities, let the guy who can shoot, already knows useful skills or highly qualified in a particular field due the job, I would rather someone who maybe got caught with some drugs or stole something or some other minor crime do the job, as opposed to someone who couldn't pass the standards as they were to being with or are let in to meet a quota!
I really appreciate the time and effort put into research. Perun is the dedicated scholar I never was.
Subtle-not-so-subtle jab at McKinsey had me in stitches.
Being a Ghurka in Nepal is the equivalent of being a premier league footballer. They are very well respected, not only in our military, but back home it is a huge deal. I just checked and discovered that 13 native Gurkas have been awarded the VC. I'm sure a lot more medals have went their way too. That speaks for itself.
@26:00 And then we have the UK, who've outsourced our recruitment to CAPITA, who have utterly failed. The Navy can't deploy one of it's aircraft carriers because of staffing issues, partly because it can take 12-18 months to go through the recruitment process, because of how slow and inefficient CAPITA is. But hey, I'm sure privitisation will work eventuially......
Given it's Capita, and they also do the disability allowance screening it's a genuine surprise they haven't staffed the thing with the profoundly disabled or terminally ill.
Privitization is always better when it isn't run/staffed by diversity hires.
That being, military recruitment should be left to the military.
@@duncanhamilton5841 Well from what I've heard they've ignored large parts of the terminally ill and profoundly disabled and just concentrated on the profoundly and terminally mentally disabled to run the system.
generally the only part of defense industry that works as a private company.
Is the companies that make all the gear.
It succeeded at it's intended goal to enrich executives at the expense of everyone else.
So good so good. Keep this series going!
Dunno why youtube always hates on your vids, man. It always gives me lip when I try to start em up. Great content as always!
About the immigration part theres a high likely hood the plurality of those ppl wont fight in the millitary in most countries bc they'll just flee and dont feel the need to defend said country
I appreciate that it would add huge complexity to a subject that you're trying to talk about on RUclips, but I'd love to see another layer of socio-economic data added to this subject. Poor people from deprived areas join the military more than wealthy people with other safer career opportunities.
Maybe there's enough there for a part 2?
This is really highlighted in Russia right now, the demographics on some populations is staggering, and reports are of Russian army officers appearing in villages unannounced, kidnapping men and shooting anyone that interferes. A few factories have been shut down because every single man was drafted at once at gunpoint, and there are no more men to work in the village at all. The village is too remote and poor for anyone to care, and the men have no real way of returning without Russian government support, so they must fight just to be allowed to see their families once more. Meanwhile, people living in the big cities can reject the draft with a mere employment letter.
Once again an excellent bit of coverage and analysis.
Always look forward to these
I wonder if a babushka wielding an AK will show up in this episode!
We need to get the Perun funnel into a major art gallery!
As it seems that a variant has appeared in Wikipedia ... _#RussianMonitorPerun_
I wish I could reach students the way you get my interest with simple PowerPoint presenation like you do. This is really great stuff😊
A very interesting topic, thanks Perun!
I see this as an absolute win. If the average fighting-age man across the world is well informed enough about his country to refuse to die for it, then the world is becoming a much more peaceful place.
In 1969 I was a US Navy aviation fire control technician working on the AWG-10 weapons system on the F-4J. I was offered a $10,000 bonus to reenlist, which adjusted for inflation is worth about $83,000 now. I was 21 and single so needless to say I took the money.
Just wanted to say, thanks Perun; One of the long format informative shows left on the youtubes, you are ... less fluff, more meat
0,hopefully those subscriber trends keep up and you get to 500k pretty soon. This channel deserves millions