REPORT: Pac-12 realignment to EXPAND to 8 teams--is that enough? l College Football Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 24 июн 2024
- Oregon State Athletic Director Scott Barnes recently said that 8 teams is the right number for the Pac-12 to rebuild to to keep them nimble/flexible. Is that the right approach if they intend to keep the league thriving in the future?
On today's episode of Locked On College Football, Spencer McLaughlin talks about Michigan's odds to make the Playoff in 2024. Should the Wolverines really be favored to make the 12-team Playoff with so much turnover? 10:10
'Locked On Gators' host Brandon Olsen joins the show to talk about Florida and Miami's week 1 showdown in Gainesville. Why would the betting line have trended towards Billy Napier's team as their win total fell from 5.5 to 4.5 in recent weeks? 19:50
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REPORT: Pac-12 realignment to EXPAND to 8 teams--is that enough?
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8 teams is the perfect amount for right now! You can always add more group of 5 schools later. You need to leave space open incase the ACC falls apart so you can either pick up some of those schools or even do a merger with the remaining ACC schools if 4-6 schools from the ACC leave for the SEC or BIG 10. Also in the short term only having 7 conference games means you can schedule an extra power 4 opponent giving you a strength of schedule way ahead of any other G5 conference.
My third list includes 1. Washington State 2. Oregon State 3. Boise State 4. Fresno State 5. San Diego State 6. UNLV 7. Colorado State 8. Air Force 9. North Texas 10. UTSA 11. Tulsa 12. Rice
Trash list
North Texas?! lol
@@mustangkurt We are a big school that is attempting to grow athletics.
Third largest in enrollment for 2023. I know we are not the best athletically but have made big strides compared to the last 2 decades, if we can get a consistent fanbase we would actually be good
Add the SWAC teams to be a complete conference
@equalizer1946 most SWAC schools don't have the long term money to be FBS
To me doing 8 instead of 12+ indicates they may want to add teams in the future that aren't available right now. So maybe wanting former PAC schools back if they are unhappy with current one or if the ACC implodes
Agreed 👍
That’s what I was going to say. Sanford and Cal will be looking for something else that is less finically strenuous on their athletic travel budget. The new PAC 10!
No one good from the ACC is going to the Pac12......
@@DB-rw9ld well not while it exists but if it collapses and no longer exists calford may need homes.
@@toddwebb7521 If it collapses no good team is going back to Pac (more of a pipe dream) there is no financial incentive unless your group of 5. I could see teams leave the ACC, the ACC replace them and still be better off financially than the Pac. No one is going pay top dollar media rights for that conference.
Board of Regents for OSU/WSU will never blow their war chest on buying out MW or any other conference teams. They will settle for a merger with the MW and keep all their money.
But if they settle for a merger into the MWC they would lose all that war chest to the departing 10 teams?
@ganjean4209 there must be a time limit on that, say two years, but I don't know.
Maybe. But it’s not what they are stating. And at this point I am taking their word over your opinion.
@@DocSkirv No worries. I'm not asking you to take my opinion.
1: Scott Barnes did not “confirm” the PAC was rebuilding. He said 8 feels like the right number if it does (2) he said that 8 gives the conference the flexibility to add potentially returning schools such as Cal or Stanford. (3) the P12 commissioner has said that the P12 has $67m set aside for a rebuild should they choose the path (4) Fresno has declining enrollment and a 2 time denied ballot measure to fix their crumbling stadium so they are doubtful. (5) Scott Barnes + Teresa Gould have also said they want this to be the "premier west coast" league, which knocks out South Florida. (6) That stated, I am certain they will kick the tires on Rice, + UTSA. I wish they would consider Tulane, but probably too far geographically. (7) all of this is only in case a B12 or ACC deal isn't offered up. (8) some concerns from AD's at other potential P12 candidates that OSU/WSU will reset the league, + then run to a P4 league. Which, of course they would. But so would any other member of the proposed league. (9) the ACC is holding on by a thread. (10) it is likely that at some point B12, B10, SEC schools are priced out of their conferences, + that the bigger markets will no longer justify revenues going to Ames Iowa, or Bloomington Indiana, as examples. Why would they? Just wanted to ensure the facts are out there.
4: Fresno State has fared very well against the Pac-12 in football, and is in a good sized TV market (#52). They are definitely in.
9: The ACC is fine. They will likely lose FSU and Clemson, which would put them on the same level as the Big12, which is also fine.
There are two factors concerning revenues. 1 is market but two is your alumni base and support…
@@atgdcommish608 disagree on both counts.
If Stanford and Cal rejoined the Pac, no other team would meet their lofty ideals to be a member. Hence, the Pac 2 becomes the Pac 4.
Tulane is right next to Mississippi River. It could be considered either west, north or east of Mississippi River. If PAC and AAC agree to divide teams east and west of Mississippi River then Tulane can be considered West. Having Rice & Tulane increases possibility of Cal & Stanford rejoining if the All Coasts Conference (ACC) implodes. Having Cal & Stanford increases chance that Apple will do a streaming deal & nabbing another tv partner.
I can't argue with your 12 _ 14 number, but I feel like some teams in the so called big conferences( BIG) ( BIG 12 ), ( ACC) are going to be unhappy with their new conferences. Some former contenders are going to discover that the new alignments shut them out of opportunities. Teams like Illinois Purdue, Minnesota, maybe even Wisconsin just can't compete any longer.
Do you believe the aforementioned BIG schools will leave $90 mil a year to join another conference for $40/$30 mil less? I don't understand this logic.
Besides those schools in the Big Ten voted for expansion.
The power 2 will consolidate and leave to a new league and won't invite teams like Purdue etc. same with SEC. They'll brake off.
Then all remaining will form a new college football second tier.
More regional conference will come of it.
You'll have the power 2 and then G7
No one is leaving the B1G gravy train unless they are kicked out. And I doubt any Big12 or ACC teams would give up an easy 30M a year in TV money to join a rebuilt Pac that will be closer to 15M a year.
Just because a school is unhappy in a new league, does NOT mean they will jump back
Five conference games leave room to schedule more P4 schools to improve their reputation against power school. It also gives time to pause and see what the best options for the next move are.
Bingo. Exactly right. 👍
Five? If you have an 8-team league, schedule all 7. That leaves 5 games for 3 cupcakes, one middle tier Power4 matchup, and one payday against a top opponent.
You can play several P4 schools with an 8-game conference slate, ez
Colorado St., San Diego St., UTSA, Tulane, Rice, & Texas St.
Baby steps bro.
Discussing more tomorrow
@LockedOnCollegeFootball Hey Spencer. What do you think of WSU Cougs new sports AD. ?
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball Spencer talk next week about how much money the conference will get. I have a question for you. Which TV Networks do you think that PAC should get involved with, ESPN, Fox, CW, CBS Sports Network. What about streaming services like Apple TV, Amazon Prime Video and Netflix?
yup, keep the money and be pac 2 as long as possible. cal and stanford will come back
Get 8 solid teams. If & when ACC teams blow up - salvage Stanford & Cal (maybe SMU). Form "The Great Atlantic & Pacific Conference" 24 team conference with 12 teams in each division. The A&P would be a good coast to coast option.
That's never going to happen. If ACC implodes, several ACC teams like NC State, Louisville, VA Tech, GA Tech, or Duke will end up in Big XII.
Do you mean the All Coasts Conference?
I think the conferences need to drop the number in their names
9:27 Spencer surely their play is based on waiting to see what happens with ACC. They want Cal and Stanford back, not add Memphis or Tulane. if ACC loses fl state, clem, Miami, UNC, Ville and maybe one or two more, the very best play for them all is a PAC ACC merger where one is west div and other east. Cal, Stanford and SMU go west, the rest of remaining ACC is east. Travel problems largely solved. Relevant conference. Sorta. 9:12
If they get to 8 schools, then they can wait to grab more teams with a smaller or no exit fee along with trying to get a media right deal for the PAC. One of the reason I think 8 would be good is because it meets the NCAA requirement for a conference, but it also allows them to be more selective about the schools they add.
I see beginning with 8 because you're expanding from 2 teams to 8, and then expanding again later. Perhaps with the war chest not wanting to use it all on buyouts from adding schools from other conferences.
WSU, OSU, BSU, SDSU, FSU, UNLV, USU, Wyoming, CSU
Grow from there, depending on what happens with the ACC. Might pick up Cal, SMU, Tulane and Memphis, for example.
Sounds like the old "Wacky WAC" lineup. Would you include BYU, as well?
@@starguy2718 I have a feeling BYU won’t leave the Big 12 for whatever gets cooked up. Honestly I think a reverse merger makes the most sense.
Add Okla St, Baylor, Texas Tech, TCU, Kansas, Kansas St.
I just don't see Cal and Stanford lasting in the ACC. It cannot ALL be about the TV money.
l can say that for the non revenue sports teams from the schools that left the Pac 12. No way Washington, UCLA, Oregon and USC should be spending that much money on travel. Only football and basketball should be in the Big 10.
Well Spencer McLaughlin there are several answers to this question. Having eight schools in the conference will fulfill NCAA requirements. Eight schools won’t be enough because the TV networks like to have contents on their own channels. Eight schools won’t even have a chance compared with other conferences that have either 16-18 schools. I say having ten schools is the minimum. I have to say that PAC needs to have between 12-16 schools in order to be competitive with other conferences.
There is already one G5 super conference. It's called the Big 12.
This is funny! Good one! Painfully on point.
8 makes sense if the ACC falls apart. That gets them Stanford and Cal back, then you go after the 4 corner schools to get them back and you are up to 14.
For the PAC to be able to compete. They need to choose the best candidates for the conference. They could have reversed merger with Mountain West Conference. Taking all 12 schools especially the ones that are dead weight in football. Hawaii, New Mexico and Nevada all need to step up their game. Second option is to get six Mountain West teams and get several American teams. My issues with Hawaii is their stadium situation. The geography and time zone difference.
No way a reverse merger happens.
Hawaii is the mother lode for recruiting though, and a nice road trip for the fans. In fact, a conference with UNLV (Vegas), Hawaii, Tulane (New Orleans), San Diego State and maybe Colorado State (Denver) has a lot of nice road trips.
They need to save some spots open for when Cal and Stanford come back post-ACC breakup. There is also the possibility of UCLA coming back if SEC/Big Ten ultimately merger and have to kick out bottom half of combined league.
UCLA is in the Big Ten for good. No way they split them from USC. Also, there will never be a B1G/SEC merger (the former doesn't need the latter). People keep forgetting that the B1G (unlike the SEC) is more than just an athletic conference.
If the pay is going to be the same at 8 schools as at 12, you go 8.
Depends on the 12
More nonconference games with P4 and with a winning record would cement the conference in the CFP and attract recruits. Makes some sense.
Eight schools also leaves room to add Cal, Stanford, and SMU when the ACC implodes
If losing all but 2 teams didn’t kill the pac12 then losing fsu and Clemson won’t kill the ACC. This is possibly the dumbest comment I’ve seen when it comes to this realignment bullshit.
@@user-ed8gb2fq9gEither you hit your head on something or must not read much because the ACC stands to lose up to five teams.
@kirancourt still less teams than the pac12 lost. The question will be, does adding these teams make the pac12 relevant again? The answer, I think, is doubtful, but time will tell.
@@srajala42 It seems to be about survival, not relevance.
@@kirancourt yeah, that much is clear lol
Here is a question for you Spencer, how are you going to get an AAC team when you don't know what your media deal is worth? The MWC media deal is 4 million per team, the AAC is right at 7 million. In order to get an AAC team I would think your media deal would need to be north of 12 million, to help cover the travel costs. If it isn't worth it money wise why would any AAC team leave?
Also Scott Barnes didn't say for certain they were expanding, he was talking about if they do expand. The PAC2 are still waiting until next year to make that final decision. Commissioner Gould said 65 million has been set aside if the PAC12 does decide to rebuild. Sixty-five million is about the amount to pay for the teams cost to rebuild. It Gives the PAC room to expand later selectively, plus the would know the kind of media money they would garner.
Go Beavs!!!
I could see a rebuilt Pac getting 12-15M a year, plus more football playoff money, plus more basketball tournament money. It would be a no-brainer for G5 teams making 5 or 10M a year now.
@@atgdcommish608 That would be nice, but I have doubts.
That is definitely a question they have to answer. Right now, the answer is selling Playoff access
Big Knives Out fan, here. And, I agree with you in that I would watch as many as they care to make. Actually, probably more than they would care too make.
The more I think about it the more I see 8 as enough....keep yourself flexible so in the event that things open up you can make a move....what if the acc got cracked apart and suddenly higher profile options can be on the table
Here is my first list of schools in the New PAC. 1. Washington State 2. Oregon State, 3. Boise State 4. San Jose State 5. Fresno State 6. San Diego State 7. Hawaii 8. Nevada 9. UNLV 10. Utah State 11. Wyoming 12. Air Force 13. Colorado State, 14. New Mexico and add Gonzaga to fill out 14 spot.
My second list 1. Washington State 2. Oregon State, 3. Boise State 4. San Jose State 5. Fresno State 6. San Diego State 7. Hawaii 8. Nevada 9. UNLV 10. Utah State 11. Wyoming 12. Air Force 13. Colorado State, 14. New Mexico 15. North Texas 16. UTSA and add Gonzaga as 16th member.
Why do you have two 14/16 slots members?
@@srajala42 I was going over the possible scenarios for PAC expansion
@@tylernelson3343 yea, but you have a team in the 14th and 16th slots, then add Gonzaga as a 14th or a 16th team over them? It just doesn't make sense, that would be a 15th and a 17th team?
@@srajala42 well Hawaii isn’t a full time member of the Mountain West . I put Gonzaga in the conference for Olympic sports. My first scenario was the reverse merger between Mountain West and PAC 12 to make up 14 schools. My second scenario was that they would expand to 16 schools. I put North Texas and UTSA in the conference as well.
Basketball-only schools (Gonzaga) wouldn't be invited.
Remember, the Pac12 was the Pac8 years ago
I like 14 schools. Either a 3/5 or a 5/4 scheduling with each school having 3 or 5 protected rivalries (rivalries are important) and playing the rest half the time. It doesn't matter which schools are part of the 14. The inventory would be 56 or 63 games which is not far from SEC (64) but still nowhere near the BIG (81). Just depends on which Texas and eastern schools have an interest playing at least four games out west each year.
The thought around Fresno is that only 4 Mountain West schools would be included so the remaining Mountain West conference is still viable with 8 members. 2 other schools needed from possibly the AAC to get to the 8 minimum then see what happens as you said.
The PAC going to 8 is the best option available at this time.
8 teams allows you to build a strong out of Conference schedule, which would dwarf the other group of 5
8-team league can't separate from rest of G5 as easily
San Diego St., Boise St., Fresno St., Colorado St., Rice, Tulane, UTEP, UNLV, Nevada, Idaho that would be a respectful enough league that makes the most sense geographically. Plus could compete at multiple sports nationally, I also believe it would be competitive enough that maybe in a few years Cal and Stanford go this travellings all the way across the country is costing to much lets go back, that's a long shot but you never know. I also think that would be a good enough group that they could get a better tv deal done than any of the mid majors right now could get.
Once upon a time, it was the Pac-8
Long ago, in a galaxy far far away!
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball You are talking about how much money they make next week. I have a question for you about media deal. Which TV networks should the PAC have deal with ESPN, Fox, CW and CBS Sports Network. Which streaming services do you prefer to get involved with the PAC.
University of Montana used to be there.
10-12 team conference (with an 8 game schedule) is great if you're trying to be the best G5 conference since teams have 4 slots open to play as many P4 schools as possible. And I don’t know if you need an inventory of more than 12 teams for tv scheduling.
I get your argument. I certainly don't think Michigan should have more than a 50% chance of making the 12 team CFP, but I think they have a pretty decent shot and we'll know pretty quickly how likely it is. If the offense struggles the first couple of weeks its going to be difficult to make it through that schedule with 3 losses (I think you said something about a CFP team not having 3 losses but you don't have to go back far to find teams with 3 losses pre-bowls being in the top 12). But if the offense is at least average, with their defense and most of their tough games at home, they have a decent shot IMO. But there is simply way too many questions that need to be answered before you can speak about 2024 Michigan with any confidence.
Gonna put another name out there and for these reasons. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
1) Played in BCS Bowl (Orange vs FSU) in recent past.
2) Has won MAC football 🏈 title several years.
3) Beat 2 ACC teams on the road the past 3 seasons (GT & BC).
4) Not only has an on campus football stadium,🏟️ but access to Soldier Field (.downtown Chicago seats 62K, also home of Chi Bears 🐻.) along with Wrigley Field(home of Chicago Cubs) and Chicago White Sox Stadium.
5) Has beaten Nebraska Purdue Northwestern Iowa in the last 10 years.
6) Flights through the 2nd largest Airport in 🇺🇸 (OHare) along with Rockford (NW Chicago) that’s just 25 miles to NIU Campus.
7) would bring PAC 12 name to the Midwest’s largest media market.
Oregon State l, Washington State, AFA, Fresno State, San Diego State
If OSU & WSU want only 8 schools, it could mean they want either the flexibility to add: Say Cal, SMU & Stanford. Or more likely they believe long term both the ACC & Big XII will lose schools to the P-2, and it will be easier to dissolve the Conference when and if this happens. Take the Big XII. It is possible that one day they lose any or all of ASU, Kansas, TCU & Utah. OSU & WSU could be their replacements.
Gotta call Brandon Olsen out on his assessment of these teams last year going into this year (UF and Miami). We don't have a head to head matchup, but we do have a common opponent. FSU would largely consider both Miami and UF rivals on equal footing in terms of "Throw out the records on this game, it's a rivalry" level.
With that, Miami had a true freshman in at QB, and looked decidedly more competitive against the at the time CFP bound Jordan Travis led FSU Seminoles than Florida did in that final cough at the end of the season. Better QB play (see Ward) from Miami in that game takes pressure off a run game that saw one back avg 7 yards per carry, and the other average 2.9 in an overall inconsistent performance. Travis was able to find his receivers, but Miami's front line, as they did all season, held FSU in check at 51 total yards.
Take the home field advantage (I'm in central PA and we just came out a heat dome that had us sitting at indexes as high as 102, so yeah the swamp at 3pm at the start of the season is going to suck), take the coaching advantage even. I don't know that either coach is currently instilling a lot of confidence, but at least Napier knows how to kneel (and I'm confident he would have benched TVD during the NC State game at halftime). Talent advantage, though? No, and the recruiting and transfer numbers show us those results. All 247sports numbers, but 2022 combined ranking Miami 13th - Florida 17th, 2023 Miami 8th - Florida 12th, 2024 Miami 6th - Florida 7th. You could call it a wash maybe, but Ward and Martinez in this year's haul is a Miami push, there's a difference between Ward's immediate impact for this game, and Lagway's future potential (which is demonstrably a higher ceiling than Ward's by all accounts).
As for the transfer comparisons, Florida was terrible on defense. They weren't young, or close to being good. They were just bad. If that's schematics it's not getting better this year, but if it was talent I don't think you plug in transfers to an unsuccessful defense and it fares better than a team plugging in transfers into a largely successful defense (despite their secondary issues, Miami's front 4 was one of the best run stopping units in the nation)...that's a bit much on the homerism. Miami's run defense was 10th in rushing yards per game, and 10th in average yards per carry among P5 teams last year, Florida was not in the top 50 in either category. You could argue "SEC", but they gave up 30+ points to Kentucky, South Carolina, and Arkansas, who combined to reach that mark in just 3 other SEC matchups they had. I get that this game is probably going to be closer than it should be, but it's not something I see as anything the Gators are doing. The Swamp can only do so much, considering they lost to 4-8 Arkansas in the Swamp last year (3 of Arkansas 4 wins came OOC against Western Carolina, Kent State, and FIU).
If Florida had a terrible offense last year, but was returning a defense that did their best to keep them in games, I'd be looking at this game differently. But it's not that, it's a terrible defense, and that's the worst matchup for what Miami was able to pull off this off-season. Miami went from 90th in ESPN's FPI offensive efficiency rankings in 2022 to 30th last year. They jumped 60 spots without any semblance of consistency at the QB position. Florida meanwhile went from the 69th most efficient defense according to ESPNs FPI in 2022, to the 86th. The only two reasons the line is close is because people don't trust Miami (very legit), and it's in the Swamp (also legit). Everything else points to this game being a horrific matchup for Florida to contend with in their season opener. Florida State has a much better defense than Miami, but even they wouldn't present as much of a nightmare matchup on offense as what Miami appears to have.
The two reasons I could see 8 being the goal are
1) if they want to create a confidence that can immediately be merged into the ACC or dissolved by a voting majority that will then go to P4s.
2) if they want to go to 8 for ‘26 only then add more MW teams when the poaching penalty isn’t there anymore. People focus on the MW first, but if they want to avoid the penalty they can add maybe 2 MW schools and all the AAC schools they want for ‘26 then just announce they’ll add most of the MW schools they want in ‘27.
I think merging with the ACC is the most likely outcome at this point, but if building the best G5 really is the goal I don’t see how 8 is the right number long term.
Having ten schools is the bare minimum for any conferences in this era of college football.
@@tylernelson3343 If they have legit long-term aspirations to keep the pac alive I’d say 14 is the right number. This “8 teams” quote was from months ago though, so hopefully it’s not like a strict part of the plan.
@@stevedonnie4077 yeah with more schools providing more contents for the TV Networks. I agree that PAC should go to at least 14 schools.
Maybe they are waiting for the ACC crumbles apart for picking teams?
Enjoyed the Georgia southern mention previously
You got it.
Get some of the bigger MW programs, enough to survive for now, and then look ahead to merge with ACC to have a big nationwide conference. Maybe then Arizona schools come back if that happens. You have a West division and and East division. They will have a LOT of schools, enough to be relevant.
The PAC 2 problem is why would a team want to pay an exit fee from the MWC and the AAC to join a conference without a TV contract. I think the MWC is in a better position to add WSU and OSU vs PAC 2 stealing the best programs from MWC and AAC. Plus if they were able to add AAC schools, they would have to make enough money to include the travel expenses to make it worth it. Once Cal and Stanford jumped ship, the PAC was dead.
That would clearly be the best non-P4 conference! I like it!
Are you presuming that the schools are making decisions before they consult media partners?
I’m assuming they’re working with media before acting. That’s why 8.
Have to talk w/FOX and CBS to piggy back on MW deal ending before '26 season
8 schools is good for football as they can allow their schools to all schedule 2-4 P4 games a season with a 7 game conference schedule. Also can wait out future ACC implosion. Maybe scoop up Stanford and Cal. Maybe even SMU gives them the bridge to grab Tulane too.
8 teams is enough to qualify as a conference for FBS purposes. It makes sense to start slow and see who is available for the second round of conference rebuilding. I assume they want to get to 12 teams eventually, or possibly 16. If WSU and OSU go national with the Pac-X rebuild, 20 teams could be the way to go, with 10-team East and West (or West and South) divisions.
I would aim for a 16-team conference, all west of the Mississippi (or right on the eastern bank).
First 8: Oregon State, Washington State, Boise State, Fresno State, UNLV, San Diego State, Tulane and Memphis. That doesn't "feel" like a G5 conference, all of those teams have been competitive with the big boys from time to time, in either football or basketball.
Second 8: San Jose State, Colorado State, Rice, North Texas, New Mexico State, UTSA, Louisiana and Air Force. That gives you some good second-tier football teams and some bigger TV markets (SF Bay Area, Denver, Houston, Dallas) to sweeten the TV deal.
Final 4: Go national by adding some top G5 Eastern teams like Liberty, James Madison, Appalachian State and Coastal Carolina. (USF might be better, but I suspect the ACC will add them to replace FSU.)
The New Pac 12 Oregon St, Washington St, Boise St, San Diego St, UNLV, Fresno, Reno, Tulsa, North Texas, UTSA, I do think the ACC does not work out for Cal/Stanford and they find there way back in 3 years.
Spencer or think about this, he's planning on expanding to 8 teams before the 2026 deadline which will stabilize and keep the pac-12 in existence moving forward. Only to possibly welcome back stanford, cal, maybe even smu, and honestly I think Utah or BYU joins the fun.
Pac-12
Well Spencer McLaughlin there are several answers to this question. Having eight schools will fulfill NCAA requirements. Eight schools won’t be enough because the TV Networks like to have contents on their channels. Eight schools won’t have a chance compared to other conferences having either 16-18 schools. I would say that ten schools is the bare minimum. I think that PAC will need to have between 12-16 schools in order to be competitive with other conferences.
Heck the Pac12 had 10 guaranteed teams and still couldn’t get a decent media deal or at least nothing they were willing to sign. All of the Big conferences are at 16+ schools
The problem would be the same problem the pac had before the break up, what type of tv deal are they gonna get?
The offers will be even lower with these lower tier teams
Per Bob Thompson (retired Pres of Fox Sports) he thinks around $10M media valuation
Not sure as the top G5 conference they would need any more than 10 or 12 schools.
I would love to see Sac State make the jump from FCS to FBS and join the PAC-12.
8 team conference + alliance with another conference for G4 playoff spot + ranked scheduling + ranked challenge week.
I think they will end up with more than 8 teams, but I think it will be more of a baby steps. 8 to begin with then later 10 or 12, maybe 14.
Re-add Cal and Stanford = 10.
UM definitely has a tough schedule with Texas, USC, Oregon & @OSU.
I get why they don't want all of the MWC teams but in reality there are only 3 teams that are truly the bottom of the conference (Hawaii, San Jose, and Nevada), a case can be made that Nevada shouldn't be there. The problem is that among the top 9 schools we have fairly equal parity when all things are considered. Sure, Boise, Fresno, and San Diego stand out a bit but they aren't dominating the league, they have to play lights out to win against the rest of us.
In terms of a G5 conference, we are stacked. So that is why I am skeptical that any sort of a rebuild will happen over a simple merger with the MWC. You add in OSU and WSU to an already top G5, that just makes it that much more of the top G5. In fact I would keep adding from there and see if we can't lure away the likes of Tulane, Memphis, North Texas, Texas State, New Mexico State, etc. Which would just further solidify our dominance.
The focus of OSU and WSU should be squarely on what happens with the ACC right now. That is the only rebuild scenario that would make sense. Rebuilding from the "best" of the G5 wouldn't put them on any better footing then a merger with the MWC would. It might get them a marginally better TV deal but hefty buyout fees and increased travel costs that would surly not be offset by the increased TV money.
Best case, the ACC implodes and the Pac2 merges with the leftovers and the PAC12 ceases to exist, they join back up with Cal and Stanford and the ACC rebuilds by grabbing the best the G5 has from across the country. Why would they fly under the ACC banner rather than the PAC? Because the ACC didn't sign any agreement with the MWC so Boise, San Diego and Fresno could be added for free if they play their hand right. That conference might have enough TV money that would make the cross country travel worth it.
San Jose State was tied for the league title last season.
@@atgdcommish608 And San Diego sucked, but you still see them as always being in the top considerations. Looking at just performance on the field then Utah State should be right there in consideration. Only Boise can claim a winning record against us since joining the conference and we do very well in Basketball too. However no one has us as being even in the top 5 options. They have Colorado State up there, after nothing but disappointment from them over the last decade.
San Jose has ups and downs but mostly downs. They are in a big market but command very little of it and seem to be getting left behind in terms of facilities.
Don't get me wrong I love having San Jose in the conference, but it is the full picture and it is not always fair. I am not a fan of leaving any teams behind. Here is hoping that they just do the merger but I think we are months if not years away from anything concrete in terms of the next big realignment shifts. Spencer is just throwing shit at the walls with these videos to get some likes and clicks in the meantime.
The flexibility comment is definitely about Cal and Stanford. The ACC is going to get gutted.
The top 4 or maybe 6 teams will likely go to Big10 and SEC. The next 4-6 mid-level teams will go to Big 12.
Because when the top teams leave the ACC. ESPN will definitely renegotiate the ACC's contract. Likely somewhere in the $15-20 million range. Less than half of the Big 12.
And at that rate it would no longer make sense for Cal and Stanford to remain in the ACC with the exorbitant travel costs.
The new PAC 12 would likely get a similar contract to the new ACC.
A merger with the ACC leftovers is unlikely. The ACC will probably raid the AAC. But both the ACC and the PAC 12 will be G5 leagues.
Does Gonzaga not have a football program? If so you could possibly count them in. Spokane is a decent size market compared to most others in the PAC/ MW.
No football, but worth the addition as a hoops only school. The move would pay for itself with tournament cash.
No they do not
60 days to week ZeRO!
I think the PAC 12 should seek out the top 5 or 6 teams from the Mountain West and the top 5 or 6 teams from the WAC conferences to drive regional value.
*AAC, not the WAC (which does not have football)
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball you mean United Athletic Conference
My picks: Idaho, SDSU, Hawaii, Wyoming, Colorado State, New Mexico.
Swap out Hawaii for UNLV.
@@JosephMelendrez007 I not quite sure if Idaho will move back up to FBS after dropping down to FCS
Idaho? Are you daft?
Doesn’t matter for OSU/WSU. They’ll be “G5” school status unless they get into a P4 or even P3 in a couple years which doesn’t look like it’s going to happen. You can keep the PAC12 name and get some MWC AAC teams, but it’ll be just another G5 conference.
You keep it as small as you can at first to save as much money as you can.
What if cal/ Stanford have buyers remorse, bring SMU along, then add San Diego Fresno and Boise
They will only come crawling back if ACC implodes, 0 chance otherwise
Cal and Stanford need to run from the ACC mess and help build a new PAC/ MTW with OSU and WSU.
OSU/WSU are just trying to hold on to the PAC name, until they can maneuver themselves into a better situation/conference. The PAC name carries more weight as a brand than the MWC name and that’s what they are banking on, in the short term.
Would an 8 team PAC-12 with only a 4 game max weekly tv inventory have a bigger tv payout than AAC teams? I doubt it. What happens if PAC-2 invite 6 MWC teams and pay $65M & ACC implodes and backfills with WSU/OSU, do they pay an exit fee? What would happen to the unwanted 6 MWC schools? IMO there are two realistic options for a reconstituted PAC-12. Either a reverse merger with MWC, have Hawaii become an associate member with half the conference going to HI as a 13th game each year, then add 3 Texas schools and go to 16. Or, invite the top 6 MWC schools, invite 4 Texas schools and add USF, Tulane, Memphis & East Carolina to go to 16 and be o me a national G5.
Wait a minute.
Inventory for who?
If you’re working with a streamer seeking subscriptions, yeah, they want subscribers.
But somehow I suspect CW is the play and at least double the pay of MWC schools is in play ($7M per school per year). That’s not great, but it appears the reverse merger gets LESS.
Also, the CW doesn’t want too much content. At least that’s my guess.
I like this
Oregon st
Wazzou
Boise
SD ST
UNLV
FRESNO
Colorado st
Air force
Army
Navy
Tulane
Memphis
USF
UTSA
Texas St
North Texas or rice
Pac 2 and AAC and MW top 7
Well Texas st is only one not in AAC or MW
@@scottyking7161 yes Sunbelt. I happen to live in San Marcos. They would make a good travel partner for UTSA.
PAC is done. Barnes is a marginal leader of the two schools ambitions and the so-called “war chest” will be used to fill athletic departments and current conference expenses. The loss of Pat Chun at WSU left the current conference without any effective athletic directors.
It will change ,everything is all fd up with college football
Greed will change all things once again ,leaders will never learn .
Over half of teams in college football will loose money trying to fund all sports programs.
Soon all Free sports on air & cable tv will be gone
Pay per view only that’s only way to pay millions to sponsor college sports
Good luck with that
The ACC has teams fighting to leave, it will fracture. Cal, SMU, and Stanford will go to the PAC 12. The rest of the MWC goes to C-USA or AAC leaving the PAC 12 as the only west coast football conference. This is the long game and the 12 team playoff means they are in it every year. Teams have to pay players now and the mega conferences are going to have a lot of unhappy members.
Doubt that USF, Memphis, and Tulane are interested in the pac rebuild when the ACC is about to be available
What will be left of the ACC? UNC, Miami, UVa, FSU, CLemson, Duke, Pitt + VaTech will all go bye-bye. But then the ACC will be the equivalent of a PAC12 rebuild scenario, so you might be right. Ultimately the ACC, like the P12 will be a shell of its former self.
ACC can survive without them just fine
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball but I think USF, Memphis, and Tulane are wanting the ACC is what I mean lol
@@LockedOnCollegeFootballMemphis just hired Ed Scott as the new AD yesterday. Former deputy AD at Virginia and close friends with Jim Phillips. Memphis will be in the ACC rebuild as will USF
Obviously they won't renew their Power 5 ranking.
I have Fresno State beating Michigan! They bring back 29% of their squad from last year, and they have a bunch of new coaches! Their QB is super questionable, and it takes a lot to get all the players running on all 8 cylinders! Plus, I think they'll be overlooking us!
BOLD
Why’d you say “8 teams” like that? Omg everyone in the conference is gonna play each other. Oh no not that! 😱
Get the top 4 MWC and 4 CUSA.
AAC before C-USA
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball is there any school in Conference USA that has any value outside of Liberty
8 teams is good. We can return to our roots (PAC-8) and start over with teams that want to be here, and not a bunch of traitors. Forget the PAC-10 and PAC-12 era and do things OUR way, so maybe this doesn't happen to us ever again!
A return to the PAC 8?
The MWC is always getting down played on this channel, like the PAC brand has any pull anymore. They couldn't make it at 12, with much better teams, so...The MWC actually has a media contract, and if OSU and WSU could swallow their pride, the new contract should be significantly more than the existing AAC contract, especially if they convince Gonzaga to join. Also, I don't understand the assumption that the AAC is better, considering they have lost 4 of their best teams. If MWC could also get Memphis and on more of their teams, it wouldn't be close. Lastly, when MWC sets up their new media rights, they should do separate ones for football and then all other sports. This would make the payout easier for football vs nonfootball schools. Then thay have flexibility to get more basketball schools like Dayton, or be ahead of the game if football just breaks off all together.
The MWC is making 5M a year. It's a non-starter. Any rebuilt Pac-X with top G5 teams could make 2 or 3 times that, plus have a much better shot at a share of football playoff and hoops tournament money.
@atgdcommish608 MWC is only making that until their current contract ends in 2026, which they would get more just based on the new market, plus additions of WSU and OSU would make it stronger. Basically, it would be the same schools, minus a few bottom MWC, so I don't see how it would really be any different. Plus, if they made a strong basketball conference, then they could get something similar to the Big East. Other than keeping the "warchest" money, the PAC brand name doesn't mean much anymore, or they would have stuck together and have a lucrative media deal.
Idk of other national CFB shows that talk about the MW and its Playoff prospects as much as I do...
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball I think the guys at Big Mountain Podcast
Who determines if a conference is P5 or G5? If bringing G5 schools into the Pac keeps them P5 than it makes sense
but if it drops them to G5 than why do it, just join the MWC...
The Big12 brought in 4 G5 schools to replace Texas and Oklahoma. You just have to pick the right G5 schools. They can do much better than a MWC merger, financially and competitively.
WSU and OSU should hang on alone until the contract runs out and split the $400mil and tell the other, now former Pac12 teams, to pound sand.
A Conference with Oregon State Washington State SanDiego State Fresno State AFA UNLV Colorado State New Mexico NIU Nevada Boise State Hawaii ; is the best non P5 conference
Why not pac and Big12 merge. Share the millions equally and essentially buy your way into the conference. If SMU can do it to the ACC the pac can do it to the Big12
Back to the Pac 8
PAC should just merge their 2 teams left with the MW. The PAC is a joke!
Oregon state and Washington state might as well join the mountain west and dominate. Them and the schools that could possibly don’t have enough pull to make it a P5 conference. They’re being delusional.
They lose a lot of money if they do that
Yes. The minimum number needed is eight. It’s enough.
This is an easy Don’t Recommend Channel.
The SBC is overrated. I think that the new CUSA is going to surpass them. The SBC has never made it to a NY6 bowl game. CUSA has.
If money was doable all 4 Dakota schools would be perfect
They're FCS....that's not gonna happen
“The Pac2 plus the best of the Mt West makes the CFP 3/5 or 4/5 times” is highly unlikely with a 12 team playoff. You underestimate just how little respect the nation as a whole has for Mt West teams and g5 teams🎉. And Wazzu and OrSt are both in this situation because they have been underperforming for decades if not centuries. I don’t see them just magically turning that completely around any time soon.
The G5 gets one automatic bid out of the 12. Just add the best G5 teams nationally, and the Pac would get that bid 9 years out of 10.
G5 has an auto bid, don't forget
You can bet your house a 10-2 Michigan makes the playoffs . Esp beating 2 top 4 teams and one loss at OSU .. tv rating alone would put Michigan in over basically every other team and yes that’s a real thing. Michigan probably gets in at 9-3 losing to 3 top 5 teams
I struggle to see 9-3 getting in
10:28 Michigan plays Ohio State Oregon, Texas. They ain't winning any of those games. I can't bet in georgia though, so can somebody bet for me? 😂
Ummm? No! You are still not the SEC!!
Oregon State
Washington State
San Diego State
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Air Force
Wyoming
Tulsa
Memphis
Tulane
UTSA
USF
ECU
Temple
Navy
Pretty fun league. Question is what's the media value?
You're getting the entire MWC or none at all. The PAC 2 don't have the funds to pay the MWC exit fees and no TV network is going to pay you the money to make it happen. No one should take this guy seriously.
What exit fees? The MWC deal is up in 2 years, right when the Pac needs to be at 8 teams again.
@@atgdcommish608 In April 2021, Mountain West presidents voted to increase exit fees - liquidated damages, in legalese - to their current $17 million if a departing member provides one year’s notice and an estimated $34 million inside that. The TV deal expiring doesn't cancel the exit fees.
The PAC is saving up some money to bring back USC and UCLA. Those two teams will be sick and tired of traveling across the country and getting their ass beat.
Cristobal doesn't win big games.
P12 title game in 2019 was pretty big
@@LockedOnCollegeFootball fair enough. I think I would have been more accurate to say he does not do enough with the talent he has. I mean Herbert in college did not look as good as Herbert as a rookie in the NFL.
Best thing is join the American and bring along 2-4 Mountain West schools.