Everything you need to know about El Niño
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2024
- What is El Niño and why is it important? Is El Niño changing because of climate change? Thanks to Nebula for supporting this video: go.nebula.tv/simonclark
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Chances are, you've heard of El Niño or ENSO. But what exactly are these things, and why do they matter? In this new video format I try to give you a basic introduction and speak to an expert on the subject. If you'd like me to do more videos like this on other topics, let me know in the comments!
REFERENCES
(1) www.climate.gov/news-features...
(2) earthobservatory.nasa.gov/fea...
(3) journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
(4) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...
(5) unacademy.com/content/neet-ug...
(6) See e.g. introduction of royalsocietypublishing.org/do...
(7) www.yourweather.co.uk/news/tr...
(8) www.weather.gov/fwd/teleconne...
(9) Firmament: geni.us/firmament
(10) www.carbonbrief.org/interacti...
(11) www.climate.gov/news-features...
(12) www.usgs.gov/programs/VHP/vol...
(13) Adapted from www.nature.com/articles/s4155...
(14) www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/1...
(15) climate.copernicus.eu/coperni...
(16) www.nature.com/articles/s4301...
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Music by Epidemic Sound: nebula.tv/epidemic
Some stock footage courtesy of Getty.
Edited by Luke Negus.
What is El Niño? Why is El Niño important? Is El Niño changing because of climate change? In this video introduction to ENSO, El Niño, and La Niña I talk about what these phenomena are, why they occur, why you should care, and how they are changing because of climate change.
Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Daniel Chen, Martina Alini, Vernon Swanepoel, Adam Scott, Felix Winkler, CC, Ivari Tölp, Thomas Charbonnel, Mark Moore, Philipp Legner, Zoey O'Neill, Veronica Castello-Vooght, Heijde, Paul H and Linda L, Marcus Bosshard, Dan Sherman, Matthew Powell, Adrian Sand, Dan Nelson, The Cairene on Caffeine, Cody VanZandt, Igor Francetic, Daniel Irwin, bitreign33 , Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Dan Hanvey, Andrea De Mezzo.
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This is one of the most concise and well explained videos I've seen describing not only what El Niño is, but what it does for the world. I knew it impacted global weather patterns, but I hadn't heard about how the rainfall condensation causes waves of high and low pressure throughout the rest of the atmosphere. Great work showcasing some really cool atmospheric science!
This would be very useful.... 3 months ago when it showed up in my test
I first came across this channel a few years ago through the PhD vlogs, and it's amazing that I am now doing a PhD in ENSO and watching this !!!
NOAA/TAO used to have a neat web page with a graphic that showed an animation of the *vertical* temp profile in the equatorial Pacific, which allowed one to see how the warmer water circulated in depth. People all too often only think of the surface of the ocean but ocean circulation is three dimensional. A few years ago that NOAA web page disappeared, sadly.
Yes, the subsurface is where all the action takes place with regards to El Nino ad La Nina cycles. Newtonian physics is exaggerated wherever gravitational effects are enhanced and this is never more so than in the differential density change across the ocean's thermocline. The diff between the warmer top level water and deeper cold water is most extreme close to the equator, which means this is the region of greatest reduced effective gravity. That is fine if nothing disturbs it, but we have this little thing called lunisolar tidal forcing to contend with and that wreaks havoc on the thermocline depth, creating subsurface waves 100's of meters high and extending across the Pacific. This is the actual mechanism behind ENSO variations as the colder water approaches the surface, causing huge temperature variations in SST. It's challenging to map tidal cycles to ENSO cycles but it is being done by applying the correct forcing to the fluid dynamics of Laplace's tidal equations and solving these analytically.
Thanks for this video. In Alberta, Canada, our winter has been alarmingly warm this year so far (-5 to +10°C range) and I’ve heard so many people use “El Niño” as a way to dismiss anthropogenic climate change as a factor in the lack of cold weather.
However, I don’t know much about El Niño/La Niña and I look forward to watching :>
My friend from Calgary talks about it a few times a week. And the lack of precipitations.
"Even the mountains have very little snow. Some ski resorts still not open."
I think in an El Niño event you'll get a colder than average winter. The jet stream carries far north in the Pacific and dips down inland, then back up during the event. So BC might melt while Alberta gets colder than Winterpeg.
South America also had a warmer winter and now a hotter spring than usual, like record breaking.
@@bluester7177El Niño certainly influences the weather in South America. The global north is influenced much less.
coworkers:
"i ackshually like a lil bit o cly-mate change myself, if this nice weather keeps up i can't complain!"
"don't tell me canada's got a carbon problem, the tax just makes everything more expensive, have you seen out west, tons of greenspace, like, cmon"
"yeah well weather is cyclical"
me:
"do you like extra forest fires from lack of precipitation and warm weather for months?"
"how about them forest fires"
"im sure forest fire smoke is cyclical too......"
Ever thought of making a video of South-East Asian weather and how it is influenced by climate change? It is a pretty densely populated region with the Phillippines and the East of Asia constantly getting smashed by hurricanes, the monsoons influencing historical trade routes and such. After all us South-east Asians don't get a lot of airtime outside of the volcanoes and the tsunami.
Ive had questions about this topic for a while, Thanks Simon!
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
- Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.
And that 1,6°C is at near sea level in the troposphere.
Only 2,3% of the "global warming" shows up in the troposphere. The oceans get 93,4% of the warming and the rest goes into warming land masses and melting ice.
Basically, 1,5°C is only 2,3% of the actual global warming.
The oceans also absorb 25% of the CO2, making them dangerously more acidic.
On the good side, if we can capture CO2 from the air 🧙♂, it would also extract CO2 from the oceans.
The only thing I liked while I was on twitters, was some friendly physicists whom explained me some important stuff.
One of those was the Arctic circle was warming 4 times faster than the global average. 🖖
P.S. Also look into "Earth Overshoot Day"...
I mean, he's not wrong, cutting emissions alone will not make the difference, but it absolutely has to form a part of the response. If you don't stop adding you can't subtract unless you subtract more which is impossible.
So you need to slow emissions to a trickle, reform agriculture, and reforest to have any meaningful impact.
El Niño has a big impact here in the United States. Typical El Niño makes winters warmer and drier in the northern US and colder and wetter than average in the southern US. Here in my home state of NJ we get warmer overall but we stronger Nor’easters so bigger snowstorms. It also makes Hurricane season in the Atlantic less active by increasing wind shear because a persistent high pressure forms over the Atlantic causing sinking air and higher winds aloft increases it.
Great video guys!
Great video! Very easy to understand. I would love to learn more on Teleconnections and different cycles AMOC, PDO, etc.
Good timing, we are in el nino at the moment but just had a meter of rain just the other day in Australia.
a meter !?😳
@@sachadee.6104 yes
Again one for the algorithm Simon
We experienced El Niño and La Niña in the Philippines 🇵🇭
I’m sorry Simon, did you just say you’re effectively a founding member of nebula? Damn that’s cool.
fantastic video! I learn so much from them
I’ve always wanted to know more about El Nino, but never got around to it. Thanks for this video! I’d be interested in learning more about global weather systems. :)
I like the citations! it makes more the vid more well-founded.
This comment is for engagement! Hope more people get your videos recommended!
Fantastic vid! I've always been confused about the El Nino and La Nina states, less so though after watching it.
(Also that shirt is fantastic!)
I love the "It's not a moon" deathstar t-shirt
Very digestible, good job!
I liked this format
I am so scared of the little boy
Excellent video!
Best nebula ad yet 🎉
when I was a kid an el niño winter meant there'd be a lot of snow, now it means that there will be rain instead.
Imagine the ocean is a giant water playmat! El Niño is like a sneaky friend who pours warm bathwater on one side, making it super warm and bubbly. This makes the clouds and rain want to play there too, leaving other parts of the playmat dry and quiet. Sometimes, the extra bubbles even spill over, bringing lots of water fun to some places, but making a mess in others. But don't worry, El Niño just likes to mix things up and goes away after a while, making the playmat even again. He's just like the changing seasons - he comes and goes, playing with the water in different ways!
THANK YOU. FINALLY. I CAN'T BELIEVE I DID HL GEOGRAPHY IN IB AND /STILL/ NEVER PROPERLY LEARNT WHAT THE EL NIÑO WAS.
Either you read my comment on your last video or I got lucky! Thanks for exaplining this, and I look forward to more videos like this.
I'm just impressed you had us on the map. Aotearoa exists ya know! We are real.
Love the big El Niño today with the massive 3 inches we got just for it to get rained down 5-6hrs after snowing
What a great video
"Late Victorian Holocausts" by Mike Davis is a harrowing yet enlightening read... the 1870s and 1890s famines in Brazil, parts of Africa, India, and China - the greatest humanitarian disasters that most people aren't aware of came about due to expected rains failing due to El Nino. Government responded about as well as you'd expect.
I finally understand a little better the thing that makes my life hell, I'm in the third heatwave in 4 months (the 8th of the year) and a possible even crazier hot summer than normal and this is to blame apparently, together with climate change.
Would be interesting to hear your take on why we're getting a wetter El Nino in Australia than what we expected, such as the current cyclone Jasper aftermath.
This is 1 of the biggest weather systems that affect climate and specifically farming in Southern Africa. It is something we did case studies on in Geography. In the last 2 years we have seen lots of effects with rainfall and high temperatures… Very interesting
Also love hour videos🎉🎉🎉
Simon, why did human-caused warming seem to kick off in 1980 on the graph you linked? is it just that the resolution is too small and we dont see the past warming, or is it because Co2 has a compounding impact that only started to take effect in the 1980s?
Because I would have assumed that the human-caused impacts would have risen steadily across the graph, but there appears to be an exponential increase starting in 1980
This is a good question. I'd also like an answer to this.
My assumption would be that households went from one or 2 autos per house to individual transport. Energy consumption as a whole sees an increase with the growing ubiquity of appliances and the draw of individual devices grew exponentially.
But curious foe a true answer
So this is a combination of the graph starting in 1920 (as I specified it was over the past century) and the mid century cooling effect of extensive aerosols, which was largely removed by clean air policies of the 1970s. A longer time series would have shown more clearly the steadily growing human influence but at the expense of making the natural variations harder to see (which was after all the point of showing the graph!)
thanks! @@SimonClark
We went off the gold standard in 1971, then all money is debt, and gee didn't we get some govt debt.
Between the time of Washington to Reagan the ""public""" debt was one trillion...and debt is the only way money exists or enters the economy.
I can recommend the book UNSTOPPABLE GLOBAL WARMING - every 1,500 years. This book by S.Fred Singer and Dennis T.Avery does shed a different light on the "CO2" warming. The book is full of studies showing that indeed there is a global warming going on and it doesn't matter what we do, it is unstoppable because it's all a natural cycle. Like El Nino but with a longer interval.
Like the vid but puzzled as to why you're holding your lapel mic. Did the clip break? edit: it does sound clearer when held I must admit.
Damn it. I've just watched Tom Nicholas' latest video and I can't stop looking at the mic and getting slightly annoyed by it. 😂
If it's any consolation, it wasn't a deliberate choice - I absent mindedly just held it and only realised I forgot to clip it after I turned off the camera!
What's the returning force that stabilizes it?
The 1997 El Niño experience I had in the Philippines is really a drought one!
Apparently on my weather app it says in about 5 days or so it’s supposed to go to -3 to -23 lol
You said that cold water wells up to replace the warm water that heads west. Does the temperature of that cold water have an effect on the cycle? And are there any deep currents that affect the temperature of the up welling cold water? I've thought, for a long time, that the temperature distribution in deep currents could potentially affect surface activity and add predictive power to our models. I'd like to be able to drop that idea if it's definitely wrong. But I'd also find it very interesting if it's right. Because, I like the idea that fluctuations of the past can be hidden for some time and then pop up later to affect things in the present.
It's all in the subsurface. There is very little inertial mass in the atmosphere to cause any change. What is seen in the change in winds is an effect of ENSO, not a cause. Lin & Qian showed this in 2018 by tracking the upwelling.
@@PaulPukite Yes. I would expect the inertial mass of the water to be a couple orders of magnitude larger than the air. But what I'm most interested in is the thermal mass. For instance, because upwelling implies downwelling somewhere else, it would seem that a warm/cold spell in the atmosphere over the downwelling could be transferred to the upwelling after some time. Additionally, there could be other heat sources that could also be variable. For instance, if the subsurface current passes by an area with subsea vulcanism, that heat could be transferred to the atmosphere at the area of upwelling. I'm curious if that amount of heat transfer would be enough to tip the balance in the oscillation.
@@johnschoolfield9339 The tidal forces synchronize at a specific time of year, described in Chapter 12 of Mathematical Geoenergy.
How does the wind move?
Hi thank you for your work,
Could you please repeat adding the video link mentioned at 5.27 about the collapse of a civilisation and climate failure or collapse. I think it was Maya civilization collapse.
commenting for algorithm boosting
I’m sure you wont read this. But i started noticing the weather patterns changing in late 2020. Normal spring, but right around September, summer stuck around later. Did our shutdown of so many factory’s and a massive drop in vehicles traveling, affect the weather? Just because it all started happening during the lockdowns.
That's a clever shirt.
Please can u do a video on volcanoes and how they affect the climate. Specifically what would Yellowstone eruption cause?
"El Niño is Spanish for The Niño." - Chris Farley
Really one of his best bits. Look it up if you haven't seen it. That was around the time the mainstream US media started covering El Niño in depth for the first time.
Wanted to get nebula, but it didn't support PayPal. I needed a credit card for it, but didn't have one. So I couldn't buy it.
bruh hearing america refered to as the east and east asia as the west is a headache
yes, my head had a hard time to process that as quickly as the spoken word went in the video. Had to pause, watch the map and think about it for a bit.🙃
Like the Magritte Star Wars T Shirt
oh silly me I tought he was a famous romanian hip hop artist and rapper
Can someone please explain to me how to find things to watch on Nebula? I've had it for years and frankly it's just a wasteland of boring stuff I'm not interested in. How do I make it work?
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👍
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I consider myself at least averagely smart and still got severely confused by eastern and western pacific, took me a while to get my bearings, missed that part of the video entirely. Some clarification would be helpful next time, some highlight which part of the map is being discussed.
On the map, east is to the right and west is to the left
@@xavier9480"On the map, east is to the right and west is to the left" - only if North is at the top of the page.
@@TheDanEdwards it is on that map
@@xavier9480the map changes position through the video.
In the Pacific Ocean, the western hemisphere (the Americas) is to the east and the eastern hemisphere (Asia / Australia) is to the west 🙃
I've heard of El nino the other day!!! I was reading an english essay about it on my english book!!!😅🤣😂
Is this why it will have 14°C here on Christmas Eve?
That and also global warming
Simon!
I think what is needed is science explaining how
a) greenhouse gas molecules trap heat
b) that the experiment/observations can be done in any suitable physics lab with a light source, a spectroscope and samples of GHG's
c) the most important part of the scientific method is "replicability of experiments/observations"
d) the rest is more physics, like water vapor increasing with temperature, causing more warming . In fact water vapor doubles the warming caused by emitted greenhouse gases
d) After listening to and reading James Hansen quite a few times, "global warming" is really measured by Earth radiative imbalance. The troposphere only retains 2,3% of the warming and 93,4% goes into the ocean
There's also this page filled with data I like a lot I like to share
THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI) which shows that CO2eq was at 523 ppm for 2022 and that the radiative forcing was of 3,4 watts per square meter (measured at the surface of the tropopause)
Nothing your smart audience can't cope with. One shortish episode can cover one these important (and neglected) topics I almost never see in climate videos.
Thank you!
I've only ever really seen info about this from news articles that are on a much lower level in terms of expertise/detail, but La Nina seems to be associated with cooler weather - is this right? The initial explanation would seem to imply that the west Pacific should be *warmer*, but we seem to get relatively mild summers during those years. I assume I'm missing something but would love to know what now that you've piqued my curiosity
Appeasement for the engagement god
At 13:01, I don't get why the graph is horizontal until 1980 and then goes up diagonally? What pushed temperatures up starting from 1980?
*The T-shirt should read: Ceci n'est pas une étoile de la mort.
René Magritte will be very upset for not remaining loyal to his particular logic.
is there a danger that a strong el niño phase would trigger climate tipping points?
I thought it was Fernando Torres
🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️🤷♀️
El Ninho is a great guy. We often open a bottle of Tequila together.
Everything you need to know about El Niño:
It is almost over
"It is almost over" - hardly. El Nino is jus now peaking, and El Nino conditions are expected to remain for the first half of 2024.
Is it just me or was the final segment somehow more interesting than the main video?
300$😂😂 this man
Here before this gets 4 views
Thanks for the video, but I canceled Nebula after removing a channel I followed that was discussing extremely well documented historical facts.
According to climate scientists. If we get to 3° C of warming(which is what we get if all the world adherese to the Paris climate agreement). El Nino will become permanent.
What would a permanent El Nino look like?
source?
@@ShamGam3 RUclips deletes links but a book called Six Degrees by Mark Lynas goes over it in detail.
"What would a permanent El Nino look like?"
No such thing as a permanent El Nino. It's like saying there's a permanent high tide.
@@PaulPukite Wrong. Permanent (as far the human species is concerned) el nino already existed about 5 million years ago.
If it happens again there is expected vegetation production decreases in the tropics, whereas it increases in temperate regions.y regions in which these El Niño-induced changes are consistent with potential state transitions in global terrestrial ecosystems, including potential greening of western North America, dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and further aridification of south-eastern Africa and Australia.
@@Praisethesunson If whatever it is becomes "permanent", it won't be an El Nino. The ENSO behavior is a standing wave that stretches across the Pacific ocean, and standing waves always have positive and negative excursions. So if the wave swing stayed positive it would be something else that created a baseline level shift.
real life lore is educational? well, if ever a definition was stretched...
to say the least, to be kind, etc
The boy, that’s all you need to know
'El Nino' is definitely a contranym
Well directly translated from its original name it could be called the "sweet baby Jesus" event, which I think fits
@@AlRoderickwait what really? its not just "the boy"?
I think you have proved that the earth is flat
Not the best video, I think. I believe you meant well, but this video really plays into the denier themes. Dealing with (i.e., tackling and reducing) uncertainties is the bread and butter of scientists, but the gist I get from this video is: _we don't know_ , _we don't have enough data_ , _it's a natural phenomenon_ , and so forth. You went over, way too quickly, how we know which changes are human-caused and how significant they are, compared to your emphasis on what is not known.
See for example the comment by @longdang2681 "I don't get why the graph is horizontal until 1980 and then goes up diagonally? What pushed temperatures up starting from 1980?" That graph needed to be labeled better, and described better.
El niño is a natural phenomenon which isn't super well understood and we don't know exactly how anthropogenic climate change will affect it, that's why he doesn't say this things.
El Nino isn’t responsible for climate change but the Climate Alarmist are certainly using it to bolster their Climate Narrative.
El nino doesn't mean "warm pacific ocean" though it.
It means "the boy" so why say something untrue.
Dickhesd.
“I accepted to come to this meeting to have a sober and mature conversation. I’m not in any way signing up to any discussion that is alarmist. There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”
- Sultan Al Jaber, President of COP 28, also CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company
Seems more and more likely, scenario SSP5-8.5 of the IPCC assessment may come to fruition (or at least the higher end of the spectrum). I say enjoy what you can, while you still can; pity the generations to come.