Global Warming: The Century We Saved Earth
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
- A path to net zero, and a stable temperature anomaly. This is one story of how we did it. Watch exclusive making-of content on Nebula: go.nebula.tv/s...
In this documentary I present a fictional, optimistic account of the 21st century, told retrospectively from the year 2100. This isn’t trying to depict the “best case scenario”, but one of the possible, mostly positive versions of the century we are all about to live through. A century in which we “won” and overcame climate change. Hopefully it gives you an idea of what is to come, and what the key building blocks to getting to net zero emissions will likely be. And so: what we need to do.
Previous video on the history of global warming: • Global Warming: An Inc...
Previous video on the crucial inaction of the 1980s: • Global Warming: The De...
This video would not have been possible without the contributions of many, many people. Huge thanks in particular go to Prof Dann Mitchell of the University of Bristol for his help with the script. Other consultants on this project included Prof Mat Collins, Dave Borlace, Dr Tom Dowling, Dr Rohin Francis, Isabelle Axelsson, Wendover Productions, Prof Chris Jones, Dr Adam Levy, Greta Thunberg, Daniel Chen, Charlie Kilman, Joseph Pisenti, and Dr Alex Lathbridge. Huge thanks to everyone who contributed.
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Directed and edited by Luke Negus.
Inspired by the work of @BobbyBroccoli
Original score by Fergus Hall: www.fergushall...
Stock music by Epidemic Sound: nebula.tv/epidemic
Titles sequence by Casandra Toledo.
Written and produced by Simon Clark.
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What will climate change look like in the 21st century? How can we beat climate change? How do we get to net zero? How warm will the world be in 2100? This video attempts to answer these questions, or at least provide an answer. This video essay in the style of BobbyBroccoli and Jon Bois looks back at the century from the perspective of 2100 and how we got to a stable, warmer world. This educational video talks about the climate crisis, geopolitics, energy, economics, healthcare, and much more besides, all in the context of climate change.
Important note: this video uses a slightly different temperature timeseries than previous videos in this series. The previous timeseries was of land-based temperature changes, while to fit more in line with the climate literature, this video uses land and sea temperature anomalies. They come from two sources. Data from 1750-1850 is from the PAGES2k Consortium reconstruction (www1.ncdc.noaa...) (median of ensemble) while data from 1850 to 2022 is from NOAAGlobalTemp dataset (www.ncei.noaa.....
Huge thanks to my supporters on Patreon: Daniel Chen, Vernon Swanepoel, Adam Scott, Felix Winkler, CC, Ivari Tölp, Thomas Charbonnel, Mark Moore, Philipp Legner, Zoey O'Neill, Veronica Castello-Vooght, Heijde, Paul H and Linda L, Marcus Bosshard, Liat Khitman, Dan Sherman, Matthew Powell, Adrian Sand, Dan Nelson, The Cairene on Caffeine, Cody VanZandt, Igor Francetic, Daniel Irwin, bitreign33 , Thusto , Andy Hartley, Lachlan Woods, Dan Hanvey, Andrea De Mezzo.
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“What was it like fighting in the Stans War old timer?” “You wouldn’t understand, you weren’t there!” Simon this is just mind blowing, wow. I got so emotionally invested! Brilliant story telling with so many great educational and thought provoking touches. Loved the banking crisis reimagined as the energy company collapse. Any angry Indians can divert their anger at me as I might’ve influenced some negative aspects of the imagining of India’s future, don’t blame Simon! You need to release merch now. “REBEL OF THE 44 UPRISING” “Freedom for the Nile 6!” “REMEMBER THE ICE✊🏽”
Edit: I also love the optimistic realism. There is hope…and I like how you gave ways forward that could inspire people watching. I hope many do.
The things about India were a nice touch. The bit about transitioning to one-party rule was the moment that I was like, yeah, this _feels_ real.
99th like
"What was it like tackling the climate and ecological crises?"
" You'll find out when we lose more species and opportunities."
i was wondering how the predictions about india felt so realistic, now lets hope that it's not (insert apollo prophecy meme)
You’d think as resources begin to decline, people would try and share what little they have, But nah.
“Future fan fiction” like this is important. It gives us a way to see what CAN be if we fight, not just what will happen to us if we don’t. Thank you, Simon.
1:06:21 Great work Simon et al. From what I’ve heard from others it’s the complexity and the sheer moral weight and magnitude that surely causes people to reject the reality before us all. Keep up the good fight ❤
This is still a far more doomer scenario than what could be. Water conflcts still going on in 2100? Wouldn´t all countries have restructured their water supply by then? Efficient water usage is already possible in agriculture and with desalination today
@@succerberg84 extremes are unlikely, i can see this happening, someone just needs to forward this video to the Cop - 2023. And to everyone in Florida, Egypt, Ethiopia, and most other "involved in conflict of their making" countries and corporations. Fuel is finite, it's going to run out at some point, the more it's used the quicker it will run out, but also the quicker we extinct most species on earth, of which one is humans. Don't subsidise fuel and the free market will take care of it even without the necessary carbon tax, just fine them on future human damage so that the free market could do it's job.
@@succerberg84 It "could" all be better, but life experience tells us that the best scenarios don't always play out.
new fan theory about the future
Wow. This is something different. After all these years it's still absolutely mindblowing that something of this quality and depth is still available on RUclips. Well done Simon!
Where have you been? There's a lot of stuff out there, look up the club of Rome, Paul Beckwith, any climate scientist for that matter.
2 comments none visible?
😂
This jacka** actually had a baby!
I was born in 1998. This is really crazy to think I may actually LIVE through all of this, seeing if mankind will ever overcome the greatest challenge of its history. Amazing video, one of the best on this website.
You won't live through this😥
Not even Bear Grillis will survive. But it was fun!
Thanks for all the fish🤗
WE TOSSIN PPL LIKE YOU @@RjbigIamMe
Same deal. This both excites and terrifies me. It underscores just how important it is to tackle it right now.
Right? I might actually die during its conclusion, either we fail or succeed, it would surely be an interesting life, hard and stressful but exciting at the same time.
Yeah. We'll ride this or die trying, it seems.
The running joke of Fusion power always being "just a few years away" was the best part of this.
I think the funniest joke is the idea that there will be a point where the oil execs pushing us to the brink will face anything approaching justice.
As a fusion-optimist I still loved this joke too :D
Thankfully I really feel this time is different. Lots of bjg milestones have been hit and there’s lots of companies investing heavily into it. Better computers and AI have been helping them, and while I don’t understand the science (who does lol) it sounds like they’ve gotten much further. Doubt it’s anywhere close but I could really see them saying “fusion is 30 years away” for real right about now.
It was the worst part, i was "oh common" every time, and less polite by the end. I understand we don't want to hope for a perfect solution that we can just wait for, but still, "a few decades away" in 2080 is not a scenario i want to believe in.
@@andynz7 I like fusion also, a fascinating topic, 2 billion years of fuel in the ocean and all that. The problem if we did crack it all we do is give perpetual growth capitalism all the energy it needs to consume what remains of the ecology of this world which given we have lost 70% of the animal species and 50% of the ocean phytoplankton that overall produces 80% of our oxygen supply in just the last 70yrs of my still living mother, sufficed to say what remains ain't much.
The problem is not how we power perpetual growth capitalism, nor how we move around within perpetual growth capitalism.
The problem is perpetual growth capitalism. In complete bloody defiance of the physics of a finite world.
i genuinely forgot how important it is to imagine the positive things you actually want for the future and this was a welcome reminder to start doing so again.
thanks for that.
Maybe you can make a followup in 77 years. To see how accurate your guesses were
And eat a hat if it was not 1% accurate
Sigh, too quick. 77 years is the fucking WEATHER.
felt strange watching this. as I'm currently studying mechanical engineering
hopefully, I'll be helping make the high-speed rail dream a reality.
it's the main reason i chose this course in the first place.
thank you for making these things it helps give me hope.
I can relate. It was also weird watching as an electrical engineering student.
The newly released plans to expand the Amtrak lines seem promising
Simon you absolutely outdid yourself on this video, this is such a fresh and good way to lay out issues we'll face while still showing a hopeful way forward. I cant say anything but great job!
I really hope this video blows up - this is the most thorough, realistic, and comprehensive “alternate history/future” i’ve ever seen, down to all the details of the complicated web of forces between climate, sociology, geopolitics, international politics - like the mention of a war breaking out in Central Asia where i’ve been due to water supply breaking down in the Fergana valley because of the diversion of water to the Aral sea melting the glaciers in the Altai and Tian Shen mountains is something so specific yet almost certain to happen though it’s such a small detail mixed in with every other deeply thought out points in this video. Absolutely amazing job, and I love the inspiration from BobbyBroccoli
Seriously? Did you notice that everything he describes in 2040 is what we experience today? This is ridiculous.
I particularly respect the events mentioned in passing about things like ITER and instability in the Sahel, which are really nice, realistic details.
Realistic? 🤣
I understand your desire for such wishful thinking.
It's junk, you have clearly not followed the plot to where we're at, but you think this version of climate science is the best? He doesn't even deal with where we're at in 2024, he skips straight out to 2035. This is lunacy....frankly.
Ha it forgot the alien invasion of 2042 after that they told us a secret. Have you tried putting it off and on again.
This is a brilliant kind of science fiction, and one that I don't think I've ever really seen before. It reminds me a bit of the way some writers write sci-fi with the goal of teaching people about real science, and it's not uncommon to see stories imagining the future effects of specific problems of today, but it seems completely unique to write a thoroughly researched documentary that seamlessly includes a fictional perspective. There were so many real details that made me recognize this as the world I live in. And it's so fun to imagine this realistic hopepunk future where, despite the world's flaws that we will always acknowledge, climate activism is victorious, people are held accountable, public transport expands, Africa avoids the worst of neocolonialism, tuberculosis is cured, Florida is destroyed, nuclear fusion remains just around the corner, and the beautiful news about the last new coral reef brings home all of the hope that's been built up.
OH YOU MEAN HOW HE SPOKE I FRONT CONGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE
DUDE AINT EVER SAID THAT GET OFF THAT SHIT
This is possibly the greatest piece of hard sci-fi I've ever experienced. I can only hope it gets meaningfully noticed.
If you haven't heard of it: The Ministry For The Future by Kim Stanley Robinson is basically this but a novel, and it's very good!
This was amazing to watch! Really appreciate all the effort you put into this! And also, the continuous jokes about nuclear fusion being just around the corner, in just a few more decades!
It's a funny joke and also a reminder that there's not a silver bullet right around the corner
first gag made me chuckle and the last one just killed me. perfectly apt.
Honestly i could imagine nuclear fusion hitting net positive...
Just everyone to realise it being economically unviable
Climate change is economically unviable. Hence reaching net positive fusion is viable.
Even something funny like nuclear fusion being 99% of the way there is a smart addition to this story that makes it feel real. That, and Greta Thunberg winning Eurovision. That's the most believable detail of the whole video.
Amazing series! I love how fusion is always a couple of decades away! I think you dad would have been proud that this was dedicated to him.
I love this video style. It just so happens that I discovered BobbyBroccoli's work earlier today and thought to myself: hey, this reminds me of John Bois' video essays. Only to open this video and think to myself: hey, this reminds me of BobbyBroccoli's video essays.
I better stay in academia because I am just not willing to learn how to animate videos this well😂
I'm so excited to watch this, I've always wanted a long form documentary in the style of your videos.
It's not a real documentary as it documents a fake, made up future based on huge dollops of climate control addiction and climate change alarmism. Climate Control nutjobs represent as much of threat to the human race as Nuke Warhead Junkies, Mass-Medication Forcers and Transhumanist Revolutionaries.... They'd rather kill us all than back down from their wrong un' ideologies
I took a light nap and played this on my phone next to me, so my dream's visuals were based on the events being narrated here, and boy, was it an experience 😭😭
I would love to know the details of that.
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 it was mostly a montage of certain scenes (people protesting, corals disappearing etc) with a bright orange filter on them-- the events depicted were either sped up or presented as still images :0c
This was so incredibly well produced, I'd love to see more long term content from you in the future!
Bro at 21:00 I just about burst into tears... specifically because even achieving that milestone would be... incredible, and yet that is something that seems very difficult to achieve right now, and to be frank unreasonably hopeful. And then knowing that even that wouldn't enough... that irl, my parents will probably be dead before this day comes, that I will probably be past my mid-life, soon to retire, and that my kids will likely live in a world completely unrecognizable. THis video is already insanely hopeful, IMO, and frankly it hurts.
Actually I lied, I finished the video and more or less I was crying throughout.
came here from tiktok and i can already tell I'll enjoy this one. Thank you for putting in so much effort!
These kind of stories are what we need for stimulating public discussion. Imagery of solutions and problems are a great start for discussion.
Thank you so much for making this, Simon. Maybe one day you could make a slightly pessimistic scenario video. You refer to this as a slightly optimistic scenario. In your judgement, what level of warming do you think is most likely by 2100?
This is beyond optimistic. Total greenwashing hopium.
I don't think we need a pessimistic one, we get those in everyday life
@@jackhartcup what about this is suppose to be greenwashing?
Yes it is definitely optimistic, but all within the realm of possibilities
the pessimistic scenario is what is happening irl lmao
@@jackhartcup how is it greenwashing? it's largely pragmatic and humanity still overshoots the 1.5 target whilst barely missing 2 degrees. I don't think the world depicted in this video is meant to be enticing nor one id ever want to live in.
Wow, just wow. It’s not often that I watch a video essay that has me in tears with the emotion of it all - but this did it.
The graphic of the tipping points and their probabilities is one of the best images I've ever seen showing the risks we face
I've held off watching this video because of laziness and its length for way too long, but have finally gotten to it and... wew. This video has really touched me very deeply. Thank you for making this.
This is without a doubt the best video I have ever seen.
Just watched this whole thing on Nebula. Sooooooo good!!!!
Thank you so much Simon !
It’s so refreshing to get a better view of how things could be if we keep on the fight, in a realistic way. It might be grim and far from the ideal we’d like to see, but still full of hope.
Thousands of thanks for the amazing work you and your team produce ❤
Outstanding work. I fear this is an overly optimistic view of our future, but hope is important and I hope I’m wrong.
Would love to see this get a million views
Great video to give hope and still provide the impetus for action from everyone.
Had me in tears a couple of times for different reasons. Amazing. Inspiring.
Omg the shade thrown on ITER is too real
Please keep producing these amazing ocntents
I'm still only 3/4 the way through, but I have to say this video is definitely the best one you've ever created. It gave me chills multiple times, had me absolutely fascinated throughout, at times made me hopeless, at times invigorated. It's a combination of worldbuilding, sci-fi, and actual science that's so realistic it hurts. This was just. Abolutely amazing. Bravo.
Well done. I really like the throw aways like the AI crash of '26 :)
It’s easy to be pessimistic about the future but we have to hold onto hope to a certain extent. We have to keep trying and fighting regardless because giving up doesn’t really serve a purpose. And if you love the natural world like i do, you should remember that nature never gives up. The one word that sums up nature more than any other, would be ‘Perseverance’.
One thing that made it feel quite unrealistic was the idea of multiple celebrations of "peak" moments when they happened. That's not going to happen, even though we have some decent models, the scientists would not say "this is it" until there is a good few years track record of the numbers coming down.
If you like this, I’d suggest two different novels about how things can go… “Ministry for the Future”, by Kim Stanley Robinson (dark but ultimately optimistic); and “The Deluge”, by Stephen Markley (dark, pessimistic). I recommend Ministry for the Future first, partly because it’s more optimistic, and partly because it’s a much easier read. The Deluge is approximately the size and complexity of War and Peace (I’ve read both).
This is such a novel and incredible project. By far my favorite video you have made that really helps with grasping the consequences of climate change, which is such a tricky but neccecary issue. Amazing job to you and all those who worked on this project.
People have deluded themselves into having cars. I got rid of mine in 2018 and don't miss it.
Very, very thought-provoking video, amazing work as always, Simon!
41:42 Not on topic i know but i love the name dropping of random huge events in these sort of videos. Reminds me of the brief mention of "the clone wars" in A New Hope lol
"The AI bubble of '26" 😂
This was amazing, congrats!
& loving the fusion energy jokes
Nice work Simon 😊. Was waiting for “Solar Geoengineering” as a multitude of measures that enhance reflectivity. And a compression of history. Also 🎉closer to The Ministry of the Future that has a powerful economic resolution called Carbon Quantitative Easing. Really hope resource wars can be avoided by increased global cooperation.
I was born in 2011. I really hope this trajectory is accurate, I'm very scared for how the world will look when I'm older... I don't want to live in a world where the current trends continue. Thank you for making this video.
its crazy to me that people a near decade younger than me are looking at these kinds of things with the same fear I have had as long as I remember. I hope to see you on the streets of a climate riot in the next decade I suppose.
Had me near tears at certain parts and goosebumps all the way through...I want us as a people to make it so wholeheartedly and your storytelling from the point of a fellow atmospheric science geek really catches me!
If you are aspiring to also continue your writing in that direction, you for sure have a reader in me again
Can't believe I missed this gem. Fantastic video and great storytelling!
Get off your dead ass and help fix this.
@@mrunning10No u lol
What a beautiful tribute to your father and to the relisience humanity can display...
This video should have gone viral. Crazy how few views it got. Even if you do have to stop making videos like this atleast we have this and other ones like it
That was very interesting, I was not surprised at how many other experts you had to talk to to make this.
25:19 Reach 1.5ºC in 2040? Current estimates say in the early 2030's. And if James Hansen's right that warming has accelerated, then it might be before 2030, and by 2040 we'd be around 1.9ºC already. Which means me should reach peak emissions much sooner to avoid triggering tipping points.
As for tipping points, the thresholds shown in the video coincide with the central estimates, but the range at which they might be triggered is wider. So of course it might happen that the Greenland icesheet resists more than expected, but it also may be irrecoverable much sooner.
1.5 was crossed in 2023 when I was twenty-one 😂. 2 will be crossed by 2030 at the latest. According to Global Warming In The Pipeline by James Hansen et al., earth would warm by over 2.5C without aerosol masking. In 2000, it would have been 2C. So even if we had net zero by 2000, we would have still reached 2C 😂
From your lips to voters' ears. And wow, you really are optimistic about placing the mosquito-borne disease outbreaks after 2035. We had 700+ cases of West Nile virus in Europe this year. By the end of the decade, we'll be well acquainted. With what we're doing to animals, another pandemic is awaiting too, so that will be fun too...
This is remarkable, Simon. Informative, educational, emotional. Thank you so much for making this.
Only a few minutes in, but I'm sure Bobby will be proud once he sees this! Assuming he hasn't already.
Wow! Congratulations. Brilliant storyline, clever and economical use of graphics and images with the continuing, unifying domino timeline. I want to say more but I can see lots of eloquent tributes already including that below from @MedlifeCrisis. Your voiceover tone was just right - professional, clear, informative and yet with a hint of irony. I thought at first that you must have invested in a top professional for the job - very impressive.
This video is an amazing source of hope, the quality here is incredible. Have you considered, just for fun, to do a video on the best possible scenario starting when the Global Warming: The Decade We Lost Earth video starts if everything went perfectly?
Amazing video!
Lmaoing at how in this timeline fusion literally is always 30 years away. Great video!
1...HOUR?! 😨🤯
Is that too long for you..?
Is 60 minutes my man you're exactly right!
It's 68 minutes on Nebula and no ads nor sponsorships on Nebula.
Oh it's 70 minutes long here.
An hour? No, longer.
An hour worth watching? Absolutely.
Watching this while there's an ongoing heatwave in my area really hits harder than it should.
To be fair I don't think there is much room for this hitting too hard
I love the little details! Also, extremely impressive for only the third video in this style. I'm going to have to rewatch the other two episodes soon to refresh my memory.
I've been looking for something to use in home ed with a KS2 kid that isn't going to set off his anxiety... Hoping this is it. If it is I'll be sharing with the local groups... Thank you.
One oversight in this video, I think, is your repeated use of the "sustainable aviation fuel" to refer to biofuels, while claiming that the world food system held on.
The use of shrinking areas of arable land to grow crops for fuel production would compete with the use of that land to grow food. Many years ago, I read an analysis in the French newspaper L'Humanité, stating that to meet France's transport needs from biofuels would require the entire arable area of France. Granted, this was not only fuel for air travel, but inevitably the diversion of land from food production to fuel production would push prices up, and push some of the world's population to (or over) the brink of starvation.
There has been some talk recently of producing biofuels from waste cooking oils, but there also seems to be significant doubt that enough waste oils could be collected to substitute more than a small fraction of current aviation fuel demand. As I see it, either mass air transport needs to end, or an entirely new approach is needed, such as the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power electric planes.
I'm of the opinion from all I've seen that biofuels are about as reliable as carbon capture. And until we have mass producable graphene material hydrogen fuel cells are deeply wasteful
@@sookendestroy1 My point isn't about the efficiency of biofuels, but that we're unlikely to be able to produce them in sufficient quantity without catastrophic effects on food supply.
How many people would it be "efficient"to starve in order to maintain mass air travel?
That deserves some thought. And we need more data. Some figures estimate that we could reduce agricultural land use by 2/3 (so only 1/3 of what we use now) if we switched diet. But then we need to account for the productivity of organic farming against conventional one, since it also seems we need to go full organic. Then calculate how much land would we need to give up to nature to recover ecosystems. Then see how much biofuel we could fit in the remaining gap.
Tbf this was in combination with a massive expansion of high speed rail, which is likely going to almost kill the regional aviation market, which currently accounts for the majority of air travel. In a place like Europe it would be fairly simple to move the majority of the journeys currently done by air over to high speed rail through relatively minor expansion of the current network but most importantly the interconnection of national networks, which is alreadly happening. We already have examples like France where short haul flights have been banned. In essence the aviation market he's envisioning is one that is much smaller than the current one. Also it is likely that biomass demand in the future won't be met by agriculture but by aquaculture in the form of sea weed and kelp farming, which also seems like a vital component in restoring ocean environments by filtering out runoff. Again in Europe there is ample opportunity for establishing kelp farms, and the high ammount of runoff seen in Europe also seemingly makes it a necessity, you can probably also do this elsewhere but I don't know a lot about the conditions outside the Baltic.
I never believe in alt-history scenarios because I feel that they're usually unrealistic, but this one hit deep and felt unfairly realistic. Hopefully we reach a good conclusion by 2100...
Holy hell, As a current sufferer form a great deal of climate anxiety in general this means so much. To see that there is a realiistic future that could be worth seeing, even while remembering that we humans are flawed and imperfect creatures and will both make bad choices in desperation but also as a group are capable of great things, and bend towards the right things with enough focus. Not to be Maudlin but this is legit one of the first things in a while that really helps me see that there might still be a version of the future worth seeing.
This is an amazing vision of one possible future. Let's all consider this the 'par' score and work to beat it, to turn back the crisis sooner, with less loss along the way.
Fusion would be really helpful, and MIGHT become practical at any time, but this is no time to risk everything on one gamble turning out conveniently. We need to fund the research enough, but operate under the assumption that it will not be ready in time, or at all. Really, that's the thing with any single technology to make things better -- you don't put all your eggs in one basket, and you don't count your chickens before they've hatched. We need to push hard on _all_ fronts immediately, and never take for granted that any projected future technology will pay off. Work with what we have now, plan around new technology as it becomes deployable.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst, be open to new ideas, and adjust your plan to take advantage of each convenient windfall as it comes, but don't "expect" them. It's going to be a hard few decades...
This is a really cool bit of science-fiction and I think the documentary format is honestly a great way to present this kinda thing. I also like the focus on the global south, that seems extremely fitting.
46:37 hopefully this means more walkable cities and ones that are not built off a car-centric design or infrastructure
gonna be fun to rewatch this in the world-desert in 2070
I've started watching this on my lunch break I'm gonna have to finish this on the train trip home from work
I literally just watched 2 videos you made on this 3 months ago just now and this came out swinging
This is one of the best videos on RUclips that I’ve seen, it (especially the end) made me feel certain feeling I can’ explain, like an old museum.
Very nice 👍
Doing anything to help fix the fucking mess?
@@mrunning10 bruh, I am a random guy in the most random useless country. Tf am I supposed to do? Run for president? Go to a protest? Why would anybody in power listen to me???
Wrong, so wrong. PICK the ONE thing that is MOST important for YOU that you want to change. VOTE for it. Democrat, Republican, Libertarian, Green, MAGA Morons, it doesn't matter. How to tell which one? Election Campaign Funding. Easy Googling to find out. And then ask yourself am I a greedy don't care person thinking short term? That's the problem with manmade climate change, the effects are well down the road.
@@RenéSaussy
This is a masterpiece!
I’m sorry it took me so long to watch this video. It was incredible. So here’s one guy saying thank you, and that your time and effort will prompt me to reinvigorate my own efforts to improve my lifestyle and choices
Extraordinary video. Thank you, Simon and all who collaborated with him.
I wonder how different the story will be when factoring in the rise in authoritarian governments (including soon the possible election of a dictator in the USA) and also that when things get cheaper, consumption of them grows - thus mitigating the positives.
Right now theres a general western bias towards cemtrist liberal - socialist - democrat governments, I can see a general decade long lean back to the right across this area with a large swing into authoritarianism and autocracy around the rest of the globe. I'd assume that theres gonna be a heavy emphasis on coal as an effort to prop up the economy during harsh austerity which will just make things worse, perhaps they will again market it as clean coal or more likely will just discredit anything against fossil fuels as dissent and dangerous lunacy. You already see arguments pushed really hard that belief in climate change is a mental illness, a cult, a false religion and a totalitarian ideology so you can already imagine what policies would be considered fair if that were the perception of those people.
This was an amazing visualization and everything youtube/nebula should be/should have been in Web 2.0. I know you credited BobbyBroccoli in the intro, but even he took this style from Jon Bois, and the informational aspect seems to come from the likes of Tom Scott in his earlier days (as well as others who I cannot remember to name here). I know that BritMonkey also did something similar to this (AI’s “past” development from a future perspective) recently and that certainly shows here. I’d love more of this from not only you, but other RUclipsrs as well-the shorts, “did you know?”, and infographic formats are getting old and we’re always destined to fail, and the academic, talking TO people format we often see (and that you often do on your channel) isn’t exactly the most efficient way of getting true, full information to audiences.
29:24 well done, Simon. well done.
YES SIMON! This was the content I have been waiting for
Maaan of only...😥
LMAO THE 'nuclear fusion just a FEW decades away!!' GAG HAD ME ROLLING JFC
Brilliant job Simon, well researched as always, and to put forward a 80 year projection of the future is an enormous task and has countless ways of unravelling. 2100 is a long way away (but a mere blip of time in other ways) and worryingly the depiction in this video requires an awful lot to go right to make it happen, not least of which requires a collective approach and actionable response from an increasingly polarised world here in 2023. No doubt the biggest change needed is the current way governments and politicians, business interests, environmentalists, scientists and most importantly the general public are able to amalgamate a common way forward.
We all need to remember that the earth doesn't need us. We need the earth. The earth will go on orbiting the sun long after we are gone. But if we want to survive we have to take care of what keeps us alive
I agree with the overall synopsis of the video, that being that the current sociopolitical trends that are exacerbating our climate crisis are doomed to failure as the systems they rely on inevitably move past their utility. My only contention with this hypothetical future is that it relies so heavily on the stability of these institutions to enact the change seen in this video. The climate crisis notwithstanding, demographic collapse and a variety of other societal tipping points are going to reach their conclusion alongside that of the climate crisis and I’m not of the belief these institutions/this overall sociopolitical will to work multilaterally will survive. I don’t believe that these aforementioned institutions/societal currents will fall like dominoes either in a complete collapse of social cohesion, but they’ll hardly resemble the forms we know them as today, on the very big IF they survive at all. This could lead to some very dire externalities where in critical tipping points there wouldn’t be political will to address them, or atleast in any meaningful way that could prevent their worst conclusions.
I don’t say this to be a complete doomer, I only feel that it’s necessary to dampen this vision only insofar as to point out the myriad of externalities that could pose a threat to it so we could start addressing these issues with a wider scope so as to prepare for any scenario or to prevent the worst from coming to fruition. This video is still a phenomenal piece of hopium and in the face of climate anxiety hopium is a must but don’t let hopium become delusion.
somehow missed this on my timeline, now excited I've actually got something to watch
I didn't expect how emotional of a ride this would be. I didn't realise how many emotions I have for this topic under the surface.
It's really great work. A retrospective scenario might be the way to encourage climate activism in the future, so thanks for that!
God bless you. It seems to me that some who don't want anything to change, and some unwittingly, are spreading defeatism and cynicism. And I don't delude myself that we have an easy task. But giving up now would be a huge mistake.
How did they get from hurricane Carl to Lisa in two weeks? 😳
This video was ... trancending ... for lack of a better term. It really felt like I was time travelling, seeing what how the future could play out, and see the things that I may witness in life. I'll probably come back to this video occasionally to see how we are doing, and see what we should be doing.
I hope I'll be able to look back on this video as a very old person in 2100 and see that the best parts have come true.
“Greta Thunberg wins Eurovision” ahh he’s taking the piss now
That's like the most realistic part of this, especially if it somehow pisses off Russia.
I dont even know what to say. One of the best videos I watched and probably will ever watch.
We might have differing opinions on certain topics but the main message resonates loud and clear. The future is in the hands of the people at large and we need to collectively take a hold of it if we want to solve the climate problem and make a better present and future for everyone.
Its so dissapointing that this is 5 days old already and it barely got some tens of thousands of views. Hopefully it goes viral somehow.
Gotta take those giant ass hopium bong hits now that you’re a dad. We literally just hit multiple days of 2.0C and militaries are boozing oil and coal as the geopolitical landscape continues to fracture and battle lines are being drawn. (: still, appreciate your work.
Lol k well if not by 2100 then something hopeful by 2150.
Just Say No 🚫 to Doomerism
We need hopium, those 2'0 are only temporary due to a weird combination of factores, a lot can be done and even then every .1 degree counts, doomerism only plays in the hands of companies that want you to give up and continue buying their stuff
lol, according to Simon, I would be 38 in 2040 when 1.5 is crossed. In reality, I was twenty-one in 2023 when it did. *Twenty-one* 😂
Amazing video, incredibly investing and inspiring, bringing both hope and uncomfortable respect for the consequences that lay ahead. Optimistic yet realistic. Brilliant work, I can only imagine the effort invested. Thank you!
I wish I still had your optimism...
That was an absolutely stupendous and inspiring job Simon. Thanks so much for your incredible work on this one. People 80 years from now will be looking back at this video and feeling certain ways about it, I'm sure. I mean- I may be around for another 50 years so I'll see some of it. The sooner we can decarbonize the better, and I hope I'm alive to see the turning point.
One thing you didn't include was the outbreak of WW3, which thanks to those crazies in DC, I think is pretty assured. So hopefully I'll be wrong, but I guess we'll all find out for sure soon enough.
ww3 has been talked about for the past 80 years yet it never happend hopefully that will be true for another 80 years
We were able to avoid WWIII during the Cold War so I think there's good reason to believe we can avoid it this century. As long as MAD remains a thing we probably won't see a world war.
Love the long form and speculative future possible look at what might happen. So many interconnected possibilities
occasionally punching fusion and direct carbon capture throughout this one is a true masterpiece of passive aggressiveness :D
Brought to you by BP, CNPC and general sycophancy. No seriously though since this is a speculative and ultimately fictional timeline you're free to predict whatever entities doing whatever you like and I'm happy to see an optimistic scenario but the "America and India bad, Britain and China good" is as obnoxious as it is unlikely. We do ultimately all have to work together to fix the problem though. Also don't write fusion off just yet, I'm not counting on it being soon and we need things we know work now like solar but it should work eventually.
The problem is everyone working together never happens, that just isnt realistic for people let alone hundreds of nations