The implied suggestion that the semis can achieve roughly the same range with 6-10x battery capacity (weight) of model 3 while weighing close to 20x (with load) and generating a lot more power is pretty much just madness. Anyone who has ever towed anything with a Tesla knows the range takes a massive nose dive with a trailer in tow.
I noticed he said batteries were half the weight, which I find hard to believe. In battery day they mention a lot of reduction in cost, but don't remember half which is black magic, at least for my simple mind. So it was kind of odd the assumptions he made, yes if you take a way the one thing that makes it so bad, it's going to be amazing, we already know maintenance and fuel is cheaper.
If you'd actually take and believe all numbers any marketing departement is publishing everything sounds good and great. That's literally the job definition of every marketing agent: 'Make it sound brilliant! - Enough people will believe it.'.
@@pedrorequio5515 the teslabattery (4680) isn't even a great new battery honestly. BYD has the best new developments in that regard. Their future batteries can be air-cooled, are of the lithium iron fosfate kind and still manage to hit the same energydensity as Teslas wonderbattery. Also, have you seen BYD's teslakiller? Once that one will reach full production it is going to be a gamechanger
@@modash1231 "The implied suggestion that the semis can achieve roughly the same range with 6-10x battery capacity (weight) of model 3 while weighing close to 20x (with load)" I would add that the claimed less than 2 kWh per mile energy consumption is less than 10x that of Model 3. With 20x more weight one would expect it to be more.
Warehouses and stores only need to add a small battery charger so the truck can plug in while unloading. Hence no time lost charging and with the improvements since the semi was introduced you should easily be able to drive 750-800 miles a day. Not rocket science. Considering how much cheaper the semi will be to operate most customers should be willing to install small battery charging stations at thier unloading docks.
@@MrGOLDENSHOT25 Who pays for the fuel? What is the difference. It will be a fraction of the cost. It can be reimbursed. Trying thinking harder and not picking at straws!
You can keep paying for diesel and repairs while your competitors save a fortune on lower ev costs and put you out of business. You can keep making excuses and not looking at the facts. LOL. What kind of business owner are you really anyway?
Don't they have to take breaks after so many hours within that mileage anyway? As others said, you can add range at delivery locations. Not think much?
My entire career is based on logistic and I can tell you that it sounds great but it’s not happening. At least on a large scale. Just like Tesla cars, we are not allow to work on or have our trust mechanics work of those vehicles. The turn around on getting your Tesla dealership pick up your car and have them fix it and back to you is a major issue. It WILL be worse with a commercial truck. Unless you’re a local guy doing peddle runs, it’s not happening.
You're making a huge assumption here - that Tesla will treat its commercial trucks the same as its consumer vehicles. I don't think this a reasonable assumption. Tesla has shown considerable business acumen, and I think they're smart enough to know that a commercial truck will need to be serviced under a different model.
You're making equally silly assumptions that a) Tesla commercial model will be the same as consumer and b) that they won't find ways to innovate around these issues. The electric transformation is happening right before our very eyes in both the consumer and commercials spaces whether you and or anyone else wants it to or not. The economics of it all don't lie and if you look at the acceleration curve in both cost and adoption of these technologies in that past 10 years, it's abundantly clear to anyone that wants to acknowledge reality, that electric is and will be the future. The electric transition is going to disrupt many industries far sooner than the average person realizes. Elon Musk is no idiot, this is happening.
@@jpcreativeimagery your making silly assumptions that any vehicle maker gives a shit how long they have your vehical for maintenance because the longer they have your truck the more you pay them we run into this problem all the time with the current truck makers and engine builders all these companies want you to do is buy there shit and when it breaks they try and up sell you more shit it's all about money for them they don't care about the ppl who buy their stuff just as long as they keep the share holders happy is the only thing that matters
@@pkuras I run a semi shop and can tell you that speed is a major consideration. I train my Technicians daily on electrical theory, as well as forward imaging and self driving. The two biggest slowdowns are waiting for parts, and waiting for approval from customers. Our goal is to have 7 out of 10 units repaired within a 24 hour time frame and we are currently running at about 6 out of 10. It can be done but it requires a well organized service facility.
This video already hasn’t aged well. I like the optimism, but trusting someone like musk who has rarely delivered on his promises and predictions is not smart.
Add in the "they'll use these batteries, which I'll guess will weigh this much, then they'll somehow shave 10% of the weight off without telling anyone" and it should have been clear there was too much guess work here to mean anything
@@daviidon no he's not. He seems to usually deliver about 70-80% of what he promises. And considering the crazy stuff he promises, a half of it would be a success...
@@friedrichvonhoffmeister3343 yeah its obviously better in long distances as it can carry in bulk and its cheaper. But for medium and short distances trucks are the best.
I have a question in America do they use trgains and trucks for long distance cargo hauls bc if that's the case the environmentally friendly way making better trucks is by making more trains + Elon said it beats rail in his Präsentation I think he is going insane
The remaining problem is recharge time. Some pretty heavy duty chargers will be needed and some organisation to minimise truck downtime due to charging.
@Norm T not of the battery is part of the structural integrity, swapping that would be time consuming. I could see early use of these trucks being a drop off the load with the truck as well and hop in a fresh charged one. A bit overkill as it require over double the necessary amount of trucks, but that just means more volume and money for tesla. In time they will find or make a way to have the battery last longer than one haul, and the only downtime for charging will be when the driver is sleeping.
@@P1ectrum this will be adopted to the bigger part of the trucking industry that does shorter runs and often does the same routes. It should be really good for about 80% of the industry where charging infrastructure should be relatively easy.
Fast chargers are becoming a thing. Large vehicles will have multiple charging cables. There will be charging stations with refreshments etc as are starting to appear in Europe. The drivers will need to stop for a break some time the charging will happen then.
I think it’s important to add full self driving into the equation as well. Will the driver be needed or will a driver be able to rest or sleep during the trip? If so keeping the truck moving 24/7 would be economically very advantageous. Eventually batteries may be able to support very high energy charging with little cycle degradation. However, at present the swap and go battery pack might be the best answer. You can recharge at a slower rate saving battery degradation and require less investment in charging infrastructure. The downside is you need more investment in battery packs, a truck design which allows a plug-in battery and ideally some battery pack standardisation between truck manufacturers.
A lot of assumptions on battery weight and energy density there. And a lot of assumptions on vehicle weight and operating costs. What about recharge time. Long Haul is much further than 500 miles.
The smart money would be Heavy or Medium Rigid, as they do mostly urban work. Big transport companies here "hot seat" their trucks. Electric would be useless for them. Trucks only make money while they're moving - like aeroplanes.
@@nomercy4521 yeah, and they drive about 2 of them routes a day. So the battery wouldnt make it, never mind getting back to the depot.. Stop fuckin eating Musks ass and do your research. Do you simple ppl think that truckers who do short hauls only have 1 route to do and are able to go home after 4 hours because the battery depleted?
@@nomercy4521 not in Canada. 500 miles is considered a regional, short haul run. For drivers going between, say Calgary and Edmonton (relatively flat highway, roughly 360 mile round trip, mostly freeway), they'll do 1.5 to 2 loads per day on that route. Can't do that on one charge. A load from Calgary to Vancouver is about 500 miles, takes a truck around 12-13 hours (in good road conditions) to do, and most truckers do that in a day (or overnight) trip.
@@jamesd2277 Aaaaand, that's illegal in most of the Western world. Many US States, and all countries of the EU, prohibit driving for more than 8 hours a day. And with speed limit for heavy duty vehicles sitting at 50-60 MPH, that fits snugly into 500 miles of range. Untill you get into tandem driving, that's problematic.
4:55 You're subtracting 10% off the weight on the assumption that Tesla can make these semis with less parts than diesel semis but you're taking that 10% off the weight that includes the batteries and the electric motors. That sounds rather made up.
4:16 he also say tesla is going to cut their battery weight in half, this is not something that is done in 1-2-3, i did not find any info backing up this claim
Yeaaaah that “and then the truck will be 10% lighter because Tesla can do that, it’s not that hard” is a little bit tough to swallow. If it was really that easy to take 10% off the weight of trucks, it would have been done a long time ago. If Tesla had already done it, they would be bragging about it. If Tesla thought they could do it, they would also be bragging about it, there’s nothing Elon Musk brands do quite like making vague promises
@@modern5387 "If it was really that easy to take 10% off the weight of trucks, it would have been done a long time ago." To be fair to him, EVs don't need some parts that ICE cars or trucks do. E.g. most electric cars don't have a gearbox (with e.g. some electric race cars as exceptions). However, a reduction of weight equal to 10% of the weight of a truck (with the battery and electric motors included) sounds a bit overly optimistic. At least he should have justified that figure with some data.
Avg truck is well under 20k lbs and can carry 45k in cargo. You wait in line to fuel now, how long to charge? Trucks drive well over 100k miles per year, teams double that. My 2017 has 500k now. I think electric trucks are great but this industry is based on logistics. Your videos dont address this.
Logistically, isn't there a lot of trucking routes that are short and repetitive? Distribution centers to outlets and what not? Seems like there should be a major market for these, but they currently won't replace all internal combustion.
There is not enough room for a truck to sit at a shipper or receiver to charge. Guys run out of hours now and have to move because there is no room to park. Drive down the highway at night and look at all the trucks parked wherever they can fit. On ramps, rest areas, vacant lots, ect. There isnt enough parking now. The US supply chain uses trucks as rolling warehouses for just in time delivery. Anyone who wants can ride with me for week. I promise you will see that electric trucks and autonomous trucks will not be seen in any significant numbers for a long time.
8:28 We already have that technology. It's called a train (1 new advantage of them with CoViD-19 is that to transport the same amount of cargo, fewer drivers are needed, & thus less time is needed to have them tested when crossing borders, meaning less waiting at border checkpoints. Recently the queues of trucks entering Singapore from neighbouring Malaysia became significantly longer after the former required drivers to be tested before entering, causing ~3500 chickens in some of the trucks to die while in the queue (due to heatstroke & starvation I heard, probably because the transporting company hadn't provided food for the chickens as it hadn't expected so much waiting in such a long queue)
@@kai-vp8mz That plus, trains don't go straight to the place the stuff is meant to go. For example, trains don't stop at Walmarts to drop of their cargo, while a semi-truck does go directly to the Walmart.
@@cedarcoombs8111 Noooooooo train good, truck bad!! I only know one solution that I spam every time anyone tries to talk about the subject! Train good!!!!!!!!
Lifespan would be longer. 1 million mile warranty on drivetrain and battery. Cost savings on truck would pay for new truck or two even if it lasted half as long. Not to mention less downtime, accidents and repair issues and loss of business with a diesel. Less brake changes and windshield replacements and downtime from that as well. Have any of you been paying attention?
Why would there be less accidents? Traditional diesel trucks also have regen braking, aka engine braking so the brakes savings is exxageraged just like every other “savings” claim
Something tells me no. What hardware technology has lasted decades? Even with software updates, it usually is outlived by the size and complexity of updates
@@ariip So many issues with this. Let's unpack it... 1) Diesel power trains are the longest lasting part of the truck. The cab and chassis has issues long before you have to swap engines in most cases. Big diesels commonly run 500,000-1mill miles before having major internal work done. And then they just replace cylinder packs and a head gasket and get another 500k. 2. Trucks already have exhaust brakes. Brake savings from regen braking are negligible when compared to diesel tractors. 3. Less windshield replacements?? Uhhh, maybe? But even then, those windshields would be way more expensive than a typical truck windshield due to the design.
I bet the "structural battery" they talked about at Battery Day, where the battery cans are integrated as part of the structure of the chassis, will play a big role in the Semi weight reduction.
Additionally, if they're going full autonomous vehicle they can nix just about every safety feature you would normally need. No living quarters, no air conditioning, you could even minimize the design of the cab if you wanted. Just have a giant aerodynamic wedge. Plus there's no traditional drivetrain weight at all, including transmission, driveshaft, differentials, solid axles, etc, no radiators (which contain coolant at 7lbs a gallon), no lead-acid batteries, etc. It should be pretty easy to make a truck at a competitive weight imo.
You will not need batteries but super caps larger motors need to be able to dump more energy much faster and that will explode batteries. We still have Tesla’s that crash with autopilot on pretty sure we are a large way away from autonomously driving heavy vehicles. And we completely gloss over the fact of space that batteries will takes. Batteries degrade especially in cold environments.
The economics don't look so good when you don't compare it with one of the most expensive trucks on the road. A day cab International is only about $100k.
@@katewelsh5182 That costs more on all trucks. The $180k extended- range Tesla didn't have a sleeper, though they have talked about adding one. Given its range and charging time, the Tesla will be best for short-hauls, which are usually operated using day cabs.
@@dave.8808 When they have that, it'll definitely be a plus, but it will come at a cost. The beta version of self driving on the Model 3 cost my brother $10k. Imagine how much they'll add to a Tesla big rig for that feature when it's fully functional.
@@benjaminparent4115 Fast chargers are more expensive, that's true. They're closer to 60-70.000$. But 43 kW three-phase AC stalls, which would be the most likely candidate for long haul overnight charging, cost around 5.000$. Those would only work for single drivers though, since charging a big rig at that power would take some 15 hours - far too long for tandem driving.
yeah to make up for time lost during charging, you'd need 2 tesla trucks instesd of 1 diesel. also, musks new "denser" batteries arent more dense... for 50% extra charge, they also gain 50% mass... so they are just bigger batteries. finally, there is no indication whether the 500mi range accounts full cargo or an empty trailer, with the former having reduced the range for obvious reasons
@@wojciechmuras553 You apparently have no idea of the parking shortage that most drivers face who have to run later in the evening or at night. As a driver who runs the North East, I rarely park legally as there's just not enough spots. Even if they put a charging station in each legal spot, it still wouldn't be enough. These batteries are going to leave many people stranded.
@@wojciechmuras553 they are NOT selling them, they're taking orders. Orders and sales are not the same thing. When the vehicle has been delivered, that would constitute a sale.
@@wojciechmuras553 Selling them already? On no planet are they selling them. Taking "reservations" for something that at this stage looks more like vaporware than a usable product isn't selling anything.
@L M A Mack truck costs $150k. A Mack engine is ~$50k. So a truck itself will be around $100k. Tesla currently produces their batteries at 143$/kWh. Most people tend to agree, that the LR version of the Semi holds about 1000 kWh of batteries. Easy calculation tells us, that will be $143k for the battery. So, an LR Semi, with a bit of profit margin, can easily do $250k. That's more than expected, but not far from the target. The SR model is even closer.
What about the lifetime of the batteries? They need to go over 500k km with (probably) a lot of fast charging. The replacement for those will cost a fortune. And there is no infrastructure. All those badboys need to be changed throughout the night. That will cost a fortune.
With that kind of range, I don't think most Semis will ever see a fast charger. Overnight charging will most likely mean ~50 kW, which is pathetically slow for something this enormous. I'm not worried about longevity at all.
@@wojciechmuras553 A truck driver averages 700 miles a day, the truck has a maximum range of 600 miles, which actually must be 450 miles if we know Tesla well. Which means the tesla truck wouldn't be able to do a full day's work. Not to mention that as time goes by, the range of the batteries gets smaller and smaller, which worsens this problem. You say these trucks won't need fast charging? You are crazy ? If a normal car takes about 8 hours to charge with a socket that is not a fast charger, how long do you think a truck with more than 10x the battery size will take connected to the same charger? Fast charger is the only way, but insted of 1h, the truck will take long hours to charge. This without talking about the giant cost for a company to employ globally. SIDE NOTE: Most of the times, the destination of a truck is not the company's headquarters, that is, it may not have (certainly won't) a place for that truck to charge, and even if there is a fast charger, have you seen a tesla charging place with space for several trucks ? And where would these drivers sleep? The tesla truck doesn't even have a bed
lithium batteries degrade at high charging cycle numbers. Hence battery replacement and disposal are required every two or three years for these high vehicle-kilometer-traveled vehicles. This would potentially raise the overall cost significantly.
Time is money when it comes to shipping freight. Current semi’s have double/triple that range on diesel before refueling. These might be good for short distance freight transport but not really for long distance due to short mileage and recharge times.
Statistics show most routes are below 500 miles. Sure it won't completely replace the need for combustion engines immediately, but it should be good for a significant amount if not the majority of trucking.
DOT limits the number of hours a driver can drive in a 24 hour period. Range is limited by DOT rules, not fuel. The reason diesel trucks have such a large range has more to do with convenience of fewer stops and the cost of fuel. If a driver can save a few cents per gallon, he will wait to fill. If he is low on fuel, he is at the mercy of the local resellers.
@@briangc1972 they limit hours not distance. I do over 700 miles in 11 hours everytime I go out. It's a dropnhook route so when I hit my destination (352 miles) I swap the trailers which takes maybe 5 minutes and begin my return trip with only a 30 minute break on the way back. No extra stops between. I get payed by the mile, so time spent sitting still is pointless and waisted. That extra 5 minutes could be much better spent at home rather than work. I would assume it's true most trips are sub 500 miles, however that's not how trucking works. It's a problem with the industry no doubt but it is the state of things. Instead of assigning a local to simply work that account logistics companies choose to bounce drivers across the country one stop at a time. So you might run 3 250 mile routes in a day. Each trip is less than 300 miles but combined it's 750. When you can only drive for 11 and be on the clock for 14 there's not much room for anything extra. I like the idea, I think in many applications it's fine. As it is currently implied though it's not practical for much outside of local work. Which is fine, less noise, no exhaust, I just see many people that don't have an understanding of how the industry looks on the ground vs on paper and they make a lot of assumptions based on that.
Maybe we should move to using rail for long distance freight. It can carry far more cargo over a longer distance more quickly and in a more ecologically friendly manner. We then use these electric trucks to do the “first mile” and “last mile” part of the journey.
@@leopold7562 This would make more sense, but the cost of shipping would climb because now more people (who must be paid) are handling the freight and railroad freight rates can be very high (most railroads are union).
These vehicles have to be treated as an "ecosystem", like a professional camera. The support systems in place that keep traditional heavy trucks on the road are well established and understood; refueling, maintenance, accessories, etc., and truckers are not going to tolerate the customer service and self repair bullshit that they throw at their traditional customers. Tesla has to build an easily adoptable ecosystem tailored to the trucker's environment. It's probably reasonably easy to get into local trucking, but it will be a long time before they break into long haul unless they completely overhaul how they deal with the service and repair side.
THIS! The electric truck would be PERFECT for "last mile" delivery (think UPS and FedEx) where the truck returns to a single depot every day. OTR trucking... not so much.
hit the nail right on the head. Now, Some people are saying that loading bays could build in charging stations. The problem with that is most trucks dont take all that long to unload. It would take at least an hour, I imagine to recharge the truck. I used to run local deliveries and dealt with many receiving delartments. I cant see any of em tolerating a truck hanging out for an hour plus... also, Efficiency is important for truckers. Im sure the tesla lovers will jump on me for saying this, but batteries suffer an energy density problem. 10 kg of deisel simply produces more energy than 10kg of battery. And it takes 30 seconds to pump 10kg of deisel into your truck. Personally i think long haul teslas are still aways away.
@@swaghauler8334 I work for a delivery company similar to UPS and we are already beginning (slowly) to adopt electric vans. This is definitely the best start. I’m surprised Tesla didn’t release a van before a Tesla truck.
@@swaghauler8334 Aye it be like the new Scania all electric trucks that are solely for local deliveries. Perfect application for them, long haul though not so much as they simply dont have the range needed.
At his Axel Springer award discussion in Germany recently, Elon said two things of interest about the Semi. The first is that the production version will get better range - up to 621 miles for the more expensive version (close to a thousand kilometers). The second is that he expects a weight penalty of possibly a thousand pounds, with a developmental path to eliminate the penalty entirely in future years. Which verifies your estimate. The Semi will be suitable for long-haul routes in the US, because drivers are required by law to limit their hours of operation, so there will be plenty of time for recharging. However, Tesla is developing its next version of Superchargers, so we can also expect charging times to fall. I see no obstacle to using the Semi, not just on most routes, but all of them. Another advantage of the Semi: it can maintain speeds on long uphill grades very easily, even with max cargo aboard. For routes through mountains, it will arrive faster than diesel Semis. It also has an enormous advantage on downgrades. There will be little brake wear and a larger safety factor, since regenerative braking can be supplemented with brake pads at need. And yet another advantage: Tesla intends to equip the Semi with anti-jackknife software. This is impossible for conventional Semis, but quite possible for electric Semis equipped with 4 individually-controlled motors. Plus, even if autonomy isn't permitted (it won't be for a few years, I'm thinking), using FSD as a driver assist will be safer. Accident rates will decrease, and eventually, insurance rates should decline once the accident stats show up at insurers' desks. I fully expect FSD will eliminate too-tall trucks crashing into too-low bridges. The Semi may be the most disruptive product from Tesla yet. They'll easily sell all they can produce.
@Urgelt Not exactly. The math in this video is very positive towards Tesla. We will need to wait for the official weights. Day cabs are around 15K and a sleeper cabs are around 20K in LBS of weight. Every LB not carried on each load is more important than running cost right now, especially without the charging infrastructure. Every market is not solved by charging either. Approximately 30% of the market is LTL for class 8 trucking in the US and most of these trucks have a 24/5 duty cycle. As the truck is used in the city it is turned and ran overnight. This does bring up a charging question/issue. The current market I see for the Tesla semi is city route operations until commercial delivery fleets can fit the truck into heavy loading operations. Once it has proven itself that it is reliable, durable, and better in every way it will then be adopted by long haul truckers. This is a lucrative market in North America but also one of the toughest markets to pernitrate. I hope Elon is ready for taking everyone on.
@@aqgh1 I imagine there will be use cases for which the Semi is not the best choice - particularly the use case you described, where multiple drivers are taking turns keeping the truck in operation over multiple shifts. I think those will be a small percentage of use cases. There is no obstacle to testing a Semi on a long haul route right out of the box. And testing it on short haul routes doesn't prove it's fit on long haul routes. What I expect is that fleet customers will buy some, then put them immediately to work on the routes they want them on. It's true we don't know their official weights. And I didn't claim that we did. I merely quoted Elon's remarks from his Axel Springer visit. A thousand pounds less cargo capacity in an 80,000 lb truck is a disadvantage. It may be less of a disadvantage than the higher operating costs are for diesel semis, or the worse safety we expect from diesel semis, or the larger insurance premiums for diesel semis, which will likely emerge as a Tesla advantage once enough safety data is accumulated to prove the case.
@@4philipp Freight haulers do try to maximize their volume and gross weight utilization. Even so, for many runs, rigs are not fully loaded. The weight penalty for the Semi won't be much. I expect the economic hit from a slightly smaller cargo capacity to be overwhelmed by the economic advantages of cheaper per-mile costs.
Batteries are not the answer..the physics and economies are not there. Electric is the way... Trains are electric motors..even in North America the locomotives are diesel electric...diesel generators driving electric motors. Cruise ships are electric motors powered by diesel generators. Electric motors .have immediate torque..linear. They use electric for power...but imagine the batteries to power a train..a ship....not realistic... We need to think of hydrogen for heavy transport..the way we used to think of diesel vs gasoline.. There is room for both hydrogen and battery Powered electric vehicles..
I'm a driver coordinator for a large trucking company and a Tesla owner. So please keep that in mind when I say that this is not feasible yet. 1) The charging infrastructure is not in place and will not be for at least a decade to handle a large volume of these trucks. 2) The electrical grid would need a huge build out to be able to handle that charging infrastructure. 3) While its true 80% of routes are short range, its that 20% that breaks this model entirely. 4) The charging times are far too long. 5) The 500 mile range it in ideal conditions. I can guarantee you that heavy headwinds, uphill in mountains or both will chop that range down considerably. 6) The battery chemistry is completely unacceptable. The cost of the rare earth metals will only go up over time as they are depleted. And battery recycling does not have a 1:1 ratio 7) As these batteries degrade, so will their range. Making fully serviceable trucks useless for their assigned routes. And while short term maintenance cost SHOULD be much lower, the regular replacement of battery packs will take away any advantage over traditional trucks. The grid and charging infrastructure issues should be addressed immediately. This would take at least a decade of effort. And that has not happened at all. But the issue that will prevent mass adoption more than anything are the charging times. The only time a driver can afford to sit and park long enough to get a charge like this would during their 10 hour break. That would mean you would need hundreds of chargers at truckstops and at every terminal. The current power grid would fail completely with that much continuous draw. Until we get solid state batteries that charge much more quickly with the infrastructure to support it, this is in no way economically feasible.
Also the ither thing that irks me. Semi trailers have all kinds add ons available for increasing areo dynamic efficiencies. Especially compared to the average trailer pulled by a smaller class of vehicle. Y'all havent seen what that does for mileage, its amazing.
This video is splitting hairs. It skates right passed the biggest issue: 300-500 mile range. Diesel trucks can get 2x to even 4x that range on one tank. Besides that, OTR, long haul trucks try to go at least 500 miles in a day, with the ultimate goal being 600-800. You can't stop and recharge for an hour because you'll be losing money. Furthermore, the part in the video talking about fuel costs says that it costs a diesel truck $300 to go 500 miles. Any trucker could tell you that $0.60 a mile is the TOTAL operating cost of a diesel semi (truck payments, insurance, IFTA, etc). If your fuel costs that much per mile, we'd have switched to electric a long time ago, even if that meant less payload. Don't get me wrong - I'm all for electric, diesel if freaking awful and I can't wait until everyone starts to actively care about and work towards saving our planet. However, I think this video misses the big picture that's currently holding Tesla back and the reason for current big rig manufacturers not pledging to switch to electric like regular auto makers have.
Bill gates knows more than this guy will ever will, he's being too emotional in this video! Bill gates been with the deepest minds of elite people, with industries and factors activity PARTICIPATING in these things, how cna he say he doesn't know about where the battery industry outperformed? 🤔
You should have at least mentioned the lack of charging infrastructure. Until that exists these will be relegated to short range delivery and return routes.
@@sparksmcgee6641 1. Long haul drivers that are in the yard are not making money and that adds up fast. Long haul drivers get paid by the mile and get 1 day of hometime (time off the truck) for every 6 or 7 days. That is about 3-4 days at home a month. 2. If shippers and receiver build those charging stations, if they even let outside carriers to use them, THEY WILL CHARGE 2 - 4 TIMES as much for electricity plus costs of building that station. This is a good option for short haul, LTL, and day run things. But will cost the company how many loads can move. Every charge will take 10 - 15 minutes for stopping at the station plus time to charge.
@@sparksmcgee6641 Yeah but then the savings of fuel cost get eaten up pretty quick. A Fast DC charger large enough to handle a battery this size costs over $100,000 up front per charger and that doesnt even include the power grid upgrades that will be required at the yard. My company is already selling EV trucks but the adoption rate is extremely slow, no because people dont like the trucks, but because the up front cost to support an EV truck is MASSIVE.
A load capacity of 9t and no ability to drive express to any location using a second driver makes these as practical as a sewer submarine to beat the traffic you created for yourselves. They're perfect for a novelty racing league though. Just need airport grade fire crews and RC controls to keep people at a safe distance from the lithium explosions.
This is my experience as a small fleet owner. You keep mixing up the differences between a long haul truck and a short haul truck. Short haul truck, a 3 axle, day cab (no sleeper) to buy new is around $127,000 and weights around 15,000 lbs, a two axle costs less and weights less. A long haul truck (sleeper)costs around $147,000 and weights around 19,000 lbs., the weight of the trailer needs to be added on to get to the 25,000 to 32,000 lb. tare weight. On a long haul, when I drive 70 mph I get 8.5 mpg. and drive 650 miles in one shift. It does make a difference on the initial cost, I buy used low mileage trucks for 60 to 70k, I save 70k on the depreciation, The truck shown has one seat in it and I can't tell but is there a sleeper berth in it? No sleeper then you have a hotel bill every night, that's $.18 a mile cost. It can't be a team driven truck because it can only go 500 miles, no fleet is going to pay 180k for a truck that can only go maybe 500 miles a day. I'm sure there will be huge tax incentives for companies to buy them and drive them on the tax payers dime. Elon is well connected has vision and the gift of gab, thank goodness, because I bought some Tesla stock before the split and it is now up 50% .
Don't forget that subsidies for fossil fuels vastly outweigh those for alternatives which will decay to zero quickly anyway unless renewed by future legislation.
@Norm T Selling is not the same as utilizing and our stupid governor's executive order might be overturned by the next. Useless Newsom only did that so he can claim credit for what is going to happen anyway mostly before 2030.
Funny how the people crowing about how great the Tesla Semi have absolutely no knowledge of how trucking works. Let alone ever driving long distances on a regular basis. It's also telling that all of the information about the Tesla Semi is the usual hype from Musk and not from any independent testing,
@@chrisose Although typically on "Elon time", aka. late, for every vehicle offered so far the real specifications have *exceeded* the hype when independently tested. At some point you just, tentatively at least, take his word for it. I too have been skeptical about batt mass for long range trucking but bats just took a big step in wt. reduction and charging speed increase with more improvements all but inevitable. It may take a few yrs but you too will be driving a Tesla semi (or competing brand E-truck), assuming you drive trucks as implied. And you'll love it.
In addition to the weight savings achieved by eliminating the ICE, one also eliminates the weight of the transmission and drivetrain, which must be significant.
Getting rid of the exhaust system must also be a huge weight savings. I know that’s part of the ICE system, but wanted to make the point, as those parts alone must be close to 500 pds.
There are no weight savings, only a weight penalty. There is a potential advantage in improved weight distribution, a bit of ballast in the right place might stop you getting blown over.
@@jamescaley9942 I suspect Tesla’s truck will actually be lighter than a traditional truck, but time will tell. They just redesigned the batteries and housing , shaving even more weight from the design. The great thing about electric is the technology is just getting started, so there will be more break throughs..
@@jamescaley9942 ballest doest really matter, its centre off gravity. With 99% off the semis wieght below the wheels it will almost impossible to flip a semi. Rough maths if it 25k that leaves 55k load. With 25k load vs 25k truck the means you need to get 40k off that load over the point off no return. Over the 90 deg angle off a trailer that's 24 degrees Then add another 20 degrees as the base off the truck is below the trailer by that much and you're looking at 15 degrees and the truck still falling back onto its wheels. Admitly is be 5h111tong my self if I was in a truck they get flipped 75degrees and then fell back. Most likely outcome is the trailer getting ripped off the truck.
I was a longhaul trucker for the first four years of the 90s. My best driving days were over 700 miles, so longhaul wouldn't be a good application for the Tesla truck.
We will not see feature complete self driving in 2021 ... but it's coming. Thank you for the deep dive on the economics though, very thought provoking.
Not that deep a dive into economics. 80% of loads maybe... but NOT 80% of miles driven. Every long haul is 500 - 3500 miles. Anything less is not long haul. And we do not have charging stations. That will require at least 250,000 charging stations probably more and will slow the speed of freight noticeable.
A lot of people are commenting on battery recharge time but they are looking at the problem in a vey narrow minded way. China's NIO has already figured this out with a swappable pack business model. Other Companies like Hyliion have hybrid a generator system that will recharge in real-time in development and will be in production within several years - this is aimed at the commercial trucking space. These are just two examples. As far as pack life goes, there will be continued and accelerated development in lithium tech and of course we have companies like quantamscape corp and others working on solid state batteries. It's quite clear that we will solve any of these remaining issues and that this transition will happen, and happen much more quickly than the average person realizes (already is happening, right before our eyes).
they probably live in a world where product actually has to be delivered to demanding customers , not just talked about breathlessly to non critical fanboys
@@realcanadian67 That’s ridiculous and no one is saying that. You’re seriously claiming that an electric vehicle won’t pay for itself because it won’t last 50 years? It only needs to last 15 months to pay for itself and be cheaper than the diesel. How long a diesel can continue to be more expensive to run is irrelevant.
@@PhilHibbs true, but then also look at my name I like trains, not trucks A railfan isn't a person who would usually be seen talking facts about trucks..
And the reserves of Lithium. For now it's ok because it's still a niche market, but in the long term, we'd better find an efficient alternative to lithium-based batteries.
You’re assume maintenance costs and repairs would be charged at the same rate as diesel. I doubt this will be the case for at least the first 10 years of transition.
No one has addressed this yet; a big part of fuel price is federal and state “road tax” often times this can be about .60 a gallon. You better believe the government will find a way to start charging these electric vehicles for using their roads that are being paid for by fuel gasoline/diesel powered vehicles It’s also worth noting that these semis often go over a million miles... hopefully these Tesla’s can keep up with that
It seems strange that the government is so determined to tax fuel heavily for road use, but they are notorious for giving out lavish tax breaks to the oil companies. Then they freak out that people want the minimum wage increased so they don’t have to eat rice six times a week.
One point that should be covered more is the TIME of maintenance. If a truck needs less maintenance, that means it could be more on the road shipping around. Another HUGE point in favour of the Tesla Semi.
But if you are going to play fairly you should account for the time that will take to charge those batteries compared to just pumping diesel and be on your way, do that several times per day, per week, per month, per year and you will be surprised the time you ended up parked next to the superchargers vs the fuel pump. I still love Tesla but I won’t deny the downsides. Also when it comes to maintenance back when Tesla was having manufacturing problems to built the Model 3 it was impossible to find replacement parts to make repairs on the Model 3 that were already on the road, Tesla was way behind in building the cars so didn’t even pay attention to just extra spare parts so a friend of mine that had a Model 3 at the time had an accident and took the car to the shop and it took Tesla 2 months to get ahold of the part needed to fix my friend’s car... 2 freaking months was that car parked at the shop and the part wasn’t a engine or something overcomplicated , it was a passenger door and it took 2 months for Tesla to afford to make it and ship it to the shop, for a trucker to hace your truck in the shop not moving for 2 months you might as well declare bankruptcy because the bills keep coming every month and they need to be paid.
@@fgrodriguezqac What if I told you that a driver must still, by law, be parked to rest? what if this time coincides with the charging time, like when you return to home and charge your vehicle while you sleeping? What if the vehicle could charge while being loaded and unloaded in the warehouse? with no intention of offending, but your observations make no sense because they are made by those who are not in the trade. I'm a driver, and for me the Tesla Semi will be revolutionary for many reasons. Regards spare parts availablity, Model 3 and its logistic hell is a story of 2017, if I remember well: I hope they learned from their mistakes.
@@tozzasque I’m a CDL-A driver as well, and yes drivers have to rest but it’s only 30 minutes brake after 8 hours of driving, Megachargers aren’t out yet so your only option is Superchargers which for the Semi isn’t fast enough having a 1 megawatt battery. After 11 hrs of driving time you must take a 10 hour brake, that’s when I feel the truck will be charging and making the best of it. I’m not saying is impossible but the timing will have to be nearly perfect and hopefully the chargers will be available when you arrive, have you been at a Supercharger station in the State of California?, most times you have to wait in line to use the superchargers because of the amount of Teslas parked taking all the spots and those are cars with small batteries compared to what the semi will carry. Again, I am not saying it is impossible but you will have to perfectly plan that your 30 minute break will take place at a charging station, then you will have to plan that your 10 hour break will also be at a charging station and then you also have to be lucky to find an available station for you to charge and before you say anything about Tesla building thousands of Megachargers to avoid all being taken may I remind you the electricity require to run 1 Megacharger let alone thousands of them? A Megacharger uses 1.6 megawatts, at those numbers you can’t afford to install on the side of the highway hundreds of them, you might as well build a nuclear plant right next to them. Also your dispatchers are always on your ass about stopping too often and making sure the wheels are turning for as long as you have time in your daily allowance so is not like you can continuously stop to charge and have the luxury of spending time charging, time is a precious thing in trucking. I will definitely buy myself one when they release the one with a sleeper cabin but I’m a owner operator so I’m my own boss, I can stop as many times as I want to and do whatever the hell I want, company drivers don’t have that luxury. Anyways, I’m pro Tesla but is not all roses, it has its benefits but it also has its downsides and logistical barriers that still need to be overcome.
@@fgrodriguezqac You make a really good point, but you are talking about a few years from when the Semi is released. As far as I know, Tesla is taking strict contact with companies that ordered the Semi to install megachargers along the routes, to prioritize the customers who bought them in the first place, instead of going blind. Another point I don't fully agree with is the time of charging. Elon in the presentation said that time will more or less coincide with time of resting. Someone supposed that the Semi will have 2 pack to charge simultaneously. We will see how they will manage this new challenge, but if we know Elon, what they will come up with will be brilliant as usual.
@@tozzasque oh, absolutely, I wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk, the guy keeps proving everyone’s wrong. He will definitely find the solution. Internal combustion engines are doomed to extension, in a few more decades the only ICE vehicles will be those people that want to keep muscle cars and they will all have a license plate showing “antique” underneath of it. LoL, electric cars are here to stay, it will be interesting when they start coming up with passenger planes fully electric, I hope i live long enough to see that.
You're forgetting that trucks only make money when the wheels are rolling, diesel trucks can run 24hrs a day with a team. Thats more than 2x the revenue of the Tesla, as it's getting charged while we keep on trucking. And we can run up to 1400 miles per day as a team. A trip may be less than 500mi, but we reload and keep moving. It's clear you've never drove a truck to understand the true reality.
@@happyhappynuts You're right... this will work for them if they don't run shifts on local runs. One driver goes home and another takes over, but no, the truck had to be charged. Just like airplanes, trucks got to keep moving in this economy to turn profit.
500 miles @ 1.8 KWH per mile (using the unrealistic claim)=900 KWH. $130/900= 14.4 cents per KWH which is the average residential rate; Commercial trucking companies aren't going to get it that cheap and if you have to get it at a truck stop or other away from ho me base you are going go pay more like 28 to 35 cents per KWH ! And remember that getting that 900 Net KWH charge does not include charger and heating losses - it will take around 975 KWH to get it. 975 KWH X $.28 per KWH = $273 this is a more realistic number.
Good thought. It is coincidental that you bring this up, as today I paid the State Farm insurance premium on my 2018 Tesla Model 3 AWD (non-performance) FSD ready. The premium for 6 months of coverage was only $300 total. This is less than I have paid in the past for much cheaper cars. Granted, there was a $40 reduction due to Covid restricting driving in general. This is in a suburb of Philadelphia with a high level of coverage and $250 deductible. Maybe the insurance companies are starting to price in the safety and security of Tesla vehicles.
Many have mentioned this. But the reality is I use metric in all of my videos, but this particular video was aimed at the American demographic so I chose to use the measuring system that they prefer. Even though I use metric myself (and metric is objectively better). So don't worry you won't see me use Imperial units that often.
Modern diesels have many moving parts, all of which can fail at any point. Electric engines only have one. If the motor dies, there’s really not much to fix. The only other issue would be wiring, which is a ballache in any vehicle.
@@drewbot69 Sorry, I misunderstood what you were saying. Of course, you’re right, it won’t be a cheap fix, especially when the governing bodies for electricians get involved and everyone needs to be certified - neatly cutting out the DIY mechanic and justifying the expense with the “qualified personnel” argument.
You’re not factoring in a comparison of Time to Fuel vs Time to Charge (full). That’s the main reason why no one will use these unless you can charge a truck at a faster or equal rate to fueling diesel. The time of everyone sitting around charging is logistically impossible if you know how busy fuel stops are already.
Hub to hub driving, and local deluvery are very compelling usecases. And its also the majority of the usecases. As the economics of the scheme takes hold this is is likely to be the way forward (transforming the shipping industry at large.
I’m all for the Tesla Truck, I am a long haul trucker. A few things and possible corrections to figure in that might be an obstacle. Trucks average about 7 miles per gallon and carry anywhere between 150-200 gallons that means I can get 1000 miles per fill with a cost to fill between $450-550 so the 500 mile calculation would be about $250. I know battery tech will increase but that is a notable difference from your estimate. Also large trucking companies have huge service fleets that get approved for the manufacturers warranty issues providing a huge source of additional income to the transportation company. That will likely scare the some of the larger companies away for a bit. As a trucker I would like to see a 750 mile range so that I can plan for 500-600 miles in between charges. I assume that eventually there will be chargers installed at truck stops where I can park overnight and charge. As a typical stop for fuel will cost me around 20 minutes of time I would assume that it would take over an hour to charge the Tesla Truck
We change our trucks (semis) to brand new ones every 3 years. I'm pretty sure the batteries will cope with that. btw.. Those new truck replacements are staggered so every year we replace a batch eg: our 2017 trucks have now been replaced with mid year 2020 trucks and next July our 2018 trucks will be replaced with with Mid year 2020 or 2021 vehicles
@@0utcastAussie what will a 3 year old one be worth with a knackered battery and who would buy it don't forget depreciation in electric vehicle running cost calculations.
@@0utcastAussie do you work for a company? The average person isn’t going to be able to replace their trucks every three years. I do think electric trucks are good but not for normal people who actually buy their trucks and want them to last. I do think electric trucks are good except for the fact that they’re going to be unrepairable. Just like you can’t call a mechanic to fix your Tesla if I messes up I bet it’ll be the same for the semis.
@@ivano1978 the redundancy on an electric truck is more than an ice engine. If an electric motor fail you have 3 additional motor and associated electrical systems (individual inverters and batteries). The truck still in good driving conditions but you can't expect the same with an ICE engine breakdown.
Great point. If they are saying there is a narrow weight difference between the Tesla and combustion Semis, with fuel, that becomes even less. Google: Calculate around 8lb/gallon to be safe as the temperature will affect the weight slightly. Fuel tank capacity varies from truck to truck. 100 - 150 gallons per side is most common for OTR trucks.
@@leonardoariewibowo1325 Average semi is about 150 gallons of fuel. Diesel weight is 7 pounds per US gallon. That's an additional 1050 pounds in fuel, with the upper range of average making it 2100 pounds. Make of that what you will.
@@xX_Pokeman_Xx Depends on the semi and the type of freight and routes they normally take. I've driven trucks that had two 150 gallon tanks, but I've also driven trucks that had one 75 gallon tank. One thing to consider, as the truck drives along the weight of that fuel drops as it consumes that fuel . The electric truck carries around the same weight of battery whether or not it's fully charged or discharged. I'm not sure how much this matters. Mass of the vehicle doesn't affect efficiency that much when you're doing constant speed on an interstate. It certainly does affect efficiency in stop and go traffic. but at constant highway speeds the biggest effect is aerodynamics. I think the bigger problem with electric trucks would be with long haul open/randome logistics type Trucking where you never know where you're going to pick up your next load and where it's going to be delivered to etc. You would need to have massive charging infrastructure at essentially every random truck stop in the country for that to work. just like those truck stops have diesel fuel currently, And I don't really think that it's necessary anyway. Short haul Regional Trucking probably accounts for 80% of the freight. If you can just replace that with electric powered trucks you would make a significant impact. And many of those trucks do a route where they end up back at a home terminal every night. It would be extremely easy for the trucking company to install chargers at their terminal. Most non truck drivers really don't have any perception of the scale of trucking and logistics in the country if you spend a little bit at a time out on the road with a truck driver and you would get some idea about what's involved with the logistics.
Cold weather? Countries without good infrastructure? Downtime for charging? The cost of replacing the battery packs? These are questions that come to mind ..
"Cold weather? " Teslas are doing well in the cold so far, but not great. Shouldn't be a huge issue though. "Countries without good infrastructure? " Only focused in the US, Canada, most of Europe, and China. Maybe a few other countries too, but these are where all EV Semis will be sold for at least 10 years. "Downtime for charging? " There are many, many different ways to charge. Overnight, at loading docks, and at dedicated charging stations. Even with current Tesla Super Chargers, a single connection can charge the long range semi in roughly 4.5 hours. You can connect 4 to charge in a little over an hour, which is what the prototypes do. It isn't hard to imagine a dedicated charging station charging trucks in under an hour, which Tesla is working on with third parties. "The cost of replacing the battery packs?" If it needs to be replaced, that will be expensive. However, it should last a very long time. Very likely to be rated to last well over 1 million miles.
@@19valleydan I think he already mentioned that 3000-3500 lb.In addition to that 1300 from tires and 1000lb from drive train exhaust intake filters radiators etc, So you have 5300+500 Fuel,total 6300lb weight available to put batteries,motors and inverters,with current battery energy density they can easily built 300 mile rage semi, Without compromising on payload capacity, once hey have 4280 cells available they can start producing 500 mile range,may be in 2023 you will see long range semis on road.
@@19valleydan Bullshit trucks in different engines/transmissions cabs, chassis, basically thousands of combinations possible, plus bed/luxury options fridges, microwave, bed..... the chassis is the strongest/heaviest part of diesel trucks, look at this volvo ruclips.net/video/7Qfy4MqcfUk/видео.html
That's excessively optimistic calculation of weight savings. Honestly, even that much is not worth the additional costs and additional risks that come from super-singles. The tires are twice as expensive, and you can't limp into a repair shop if you lose one tire, meaning roadside repair costs, which are even more expensive.
Remember an ev needs the same 12v battery in the semi as the model 3. All the 12v does is fire up the 400v interconnecters, you could prob do this with an AA battery.
Solar or wind takes up valuable space and are not feasible unless there are many of them for such operations. Repairing and maintaining of such could get you in negative. Not to mention frequent recharge and discharge of battery would reduce lifespan of system
@@lordmilchreis1885 roof top solar panels could barely run a House forget about running a charging station. You need a large area to have enough solar panels to produce enough energy to charge cars
Your arguements are quite compelling. I believe one needs to factor in the economical and ecological waste produced in the production of the electricity needed to put these behemoths on the road. Something noone is talking about.
I think the tesla semi has merit, that being said I haul speclized freight , a good chunk of my driving is on two lane back roads do to the places I deliver. For what we haul I can see it will take quite a few more years to make the tesla semi a viable option for all transport needs.
The thing is, relatively low speed roads, with lots of acceleration and braking are where electric vehicles outperform ICE by the most, so they're maybe closer than it seems.
I have to say alot of people didn't pay or highlight this if even close to prediction we should definitely expect atleast a 10-20% reduction in time travel due to acceleration alone, add steep hill and who knows. I have a 600km drive I usually take every month. In inclines most truck cannot reach their normal highway speeds of 80km/h they do 50-60km its so painful to be stuck behind one in a bend where you cannot overtake
Diesel trucks can get away with less torque because they have more gears. An electric vehicle would have a maximum of 3 gears I believe unless you use CVT, and CVTs are awful at hauling
No, no. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles *must* have battery packs. They won't work without them. The fuel cell generates electricity at a constant rate, but the need for power to motors is variable. That's where the battery pack comes in. The fuel cell charges the pack, the pack dispenses electricity at need. So hydrogen fuel cell vehicles *can* have regenerative braking. Hydrogen's downfall comes from its price, from its energy inefficiency, from metal embrittlement, from the danger of horrific explosions, and from the enormous cost of infrastructure build out (by some estimates, a trillion dollars or more if it's to become used widely). The economics don't work.
@@nunobartolo2908 Sure. I'm just letting you know that it's not true that fuel cell vehicles can't do regenerative braking. Need to criticize based on actual faults, not imaginary ones.
Curb weight is "the weight as it would sit at the curb". That means the 1000 pounds per fuel tank is already accounted for in the 18k pound weight of a diesel truck. Specifically an 18k pound truck only weighs 18k pounds with full tanks.
120 gallons at 7-9 miles per gallon. Means range of 840-1080 miles , alot longer range than 500. And as others have said charge time adds time your not being paid, along with more fuel stops, means even more non laid time. Trucking needs to pay by the hour for safety and honesty. I know guys that sit at lots for a day not getting paid. Plus around here a new tractor trailer driver if paid by miles can make more at Amazon warehouse and be home every night. There are exceptions but those are few.
@@AlexanderNassian I don't understand, in the U.S we can work 14 hour days back to back. Then if you have to idle over night that's fuel as well. They are getting close though.
2:00 - 300 watt-hours per kg sounds pretty impressive for battery tech. You're gonna need to get it to about 10x that much, before you can have any reasonable chance of displacing regular diesel-powered semi-trucks.
Hey, love the video and I appreciate what you are trying to do but you need to be more fair with your comparison. Let me say that I love Tesla and when that truck comes out I’m going to buy myself one but I don’t think is fair that when it comes to price of the unit you compare it with the highest class of diesel truck out there which is Volvo, the average trucker can’t afford a Volvo, they usually buy a Freightliner or a Peterbilt which costs around $80,000, that difference is huge for the normal truck driver and we are talking about the ones with a sleeper cabin, the current Tesla is for Day Cab which means only local trips, you can get a Day Cab Diesel truck for $15,000 and throw some $25K-$30K and get it running nicely, I imagine if Tesla ever builds one with a sleeper included those will cost much more than $180,000.... that is something that you conveniently avoid to mention in your video and I don’t think is fair, if you are going to make a honest comparison the first thing to do should be to leave your love for Tesla on the side and be objective on the subject. This videos are very deceiving because for truck drivers numbers mean everything, it’s all about the profit that is left to feed the family and keep the business running so when you make the comparison with a Volvo is like saying someone buying a Ferrari and the average Joe don’t buy Ferrari, they buy Toyota or Honda, you get what I’m saying here? Now if you are talking about truck drivers that have been in the industry for a very long time and have accumulated wealth and now at this later age with all the knowledge they possess they want to treat themselves to a fancy truck such as Volvo or Tesla then yeah but the new truck driver that just started or has very few years in the industry cannot afford that price without risking going bankrupt. I still believe Tesla will eventually take over the trucking industry because our knowledge on battery manufacturing keeps growing and they will only get better and better and lighter and lighter so eventually the curb will definitely favor Tesla. Is just a matter of time now.
I don't think anybody has a problem with electric trucks, not Bill Gates or anyone else, what they are just stating is that, with current tech it is not commercially possible. It will be in the future, probably, but not right now, and you don't see a ton of Tesla Semis going around
@@sparksmcgee6641 Not true, anyone can put down a deposit for the semi truck, I personally know three people that did and one youtuber I know he did as well. All you need is a $5000 right away payment and then a wire transfer of $15000 to reserve one. At Tesla website you will see that any person can buy it. www.tesla.com/semi
@@fgrodriguezqac i didnt say you couldn't buy one. The product is targeting fleets routes. Owners will have charging stations on their own sites. They will get the most benifit and pay the most for the trucks. You can buy one and make a lampstand out of it if you want.
You should also factor in the weight savings of the transmission, drive train, differentials, radiators, exhaust, brakes and the actual weight of the diesel fuel.
@@AaronCMounts No, you don't understand - you don't need the same amount of energy for the simple reason that the energy efficiency of an electric motor is over 95% vs 30-40% of a large diesel engine. Also, the engine, transmission, differentials, etc. of a semi-truck is easily over 5000 lbs, plus another 2000 lbs of fuel (300 gallons).
@@cav4290 #1. You don't have 300 gallons of fuel capacity in a semi, you have on average about half that. #2. The weight of the drive train in a semi is closer to 3500 lbs. #3. The efficiency of EV motors is actually about 85%, not 95%. So even accounting for the difference in efficiency of EV motors, you're still gonna need about 13,000 lbs of battery storage, which is 9,000 more than the entire drive train + fuel weight of a diesel semi. And that doesn't include all the frame, bracing, conduits, motors, circuitry, cooling, etc...an EV power system requires. Once that's added in, you're looking at a net weight difference of almost 10,000lbs. That directly translates to 10,000lbs less payload, which is a dead proposal to the trucking industry.
@@AaronCMounts The weight of the engine alone is roughly 3000 lbs - so no way 3500 for the entire drive train. EV motors are typically between 75% and 95% efficient, there are many variables, but expect the Tesla semi to be in the upper bound of the range. I think the difference will be less than 9000, you are mentioning frame, cooling, etc., if you really believe that, then you have no idea how much cooling a semi truck engines, not only coolant, but also all the oil, etc. The braking system and exhaust is another huge advantage for the EV, less weight, and much less maintenance. The trucking business is not only about weight, but also time.
I think the biggest problem with electric vehicles overall is the fact that the batteries degrade with each recharging cykel, meaning that they would have to be replaced quite often. Batteries also cost a lot of money especially for this size which means that the maintenance might actually be higher than regular trucks. Great video tho!
With respect this point is outdated. Batteries are lasting longer wolith each generation and there have been several since this was true. Now cars will last for half a million miles and a million is possible. Much of this improvement has come from proper temperature control but some is from changing battery chemistry and structure.
You wouldn't cut it in half. Maybe 10%. When heating the cabin in a car, the drop is very noticeable in a 60-100kWh pack. Not so much in a 1000kWh pack.
@@NicholasTruehl i think motors that large would produce a great deal of waste heat, which could more than heat the cabin. the batteries would be self heating, considering the density. the first tesla roadster, when driven very hard, would have battery overheating problems. the petrol heads are not to be convinced easily
This is a great summary! But one thing I think no one accounts for when assessing the cost of Gas vs Electric is that Gas prices should fall as more people go to electric
You totally missed the downtime of the truck. You can not charge up in the time you fill up a normal truck. Down time is extremely expensive for both driver and company.
No you missed the big picture, you cannot drive forever. You must eat, piss, stand up and everything else. If drive for 500 miles, you think you're going to gas up in five minutes and be out of there, ain't gonna happen. You're going to be there way longer than it takes to charge up.
@@specialopsdave It is not ‘simple’ gearing though...these all use very high-speed electric motors to keep the motor small. Gears and bearings still need lubrication that needs maintenance. Motors need cooling too (liquid) due to the speeds. You really do not lighten the drive train either, you still have to support the loads and allow for a suspension. Even electric drive mining trucks have an axle housing to support the vehicle. For any vehicle towing/hauling you need vehicle mass for proper ground contact forces and braking/handling. No doubt electrification of vehicles will keep developing and can make a lot of sense for urban trucks that drive predictable routes daily. There are a lot of trade-offs still between electric and gas/diesel drives.
@@TheBeingReal it doesn't shift, it's literally two cogs with different sizes that make up the gear ratio, compared to the many cogs, shift collars and transmission bands found in ICE gearboxes. Therefore, relatively speaking, it is in fact simple gearing.
@@specialopsdave I would be surprised if it was only a single stage reduction. They are not small packages. Usually planetary to keep compact. With AC motor technology, no gear shifting is needed. Full motor torque at all rpm.
Just found this channel and already subscribed, I really like the content! :) But for the measurements I would love to have everything transalted to the metric system so the non americans an also relate!! Please add this in the future, would be great!
@@rudbeckia885 the problem with charging stations is the same problem that semis have with parking already, it will take massive infrastructure to charge semis and that will take space. And lots of it.
Zero need to have 1000 range. A current truck cant run that long without stopping even with team drivers and 500mile charge takes less time than a bathroom stop.
At least Tesla trucks are real, functional, self propelled vehicles that are in a test phase and are hauling actual loads, instead of a mock-up fake truck without a drivetrain just rolling down a hill for a scam promotion video. That justifies the hypothesizing just a little bit in my opinion. Also, Tesla's track record shows, that they deliver late, but they deliver eventually. Except Model Y, that was surprisingly early. 😁
@@MrJSpicoli Correct, they are working on that. Limited FSD beta is out. Still takes a few years if you ask me. Tesla might get to level 3 autonomy at the end of 2021 though, emphasis on might.
when you 3 of the top 5 largest economies in the world California, China, and India all currently implementing legislation that will require all vehicles to be non-ICE within the near future, it is not hypothetical at all. This is happening. Fossil fuel powered vehicles will be relegated to the used car lots within 5-10 years.
Lets not forget that the "new batteries that Tesla is producing now" as stated in the video have not yet been produced as they have not yet even built the production line for them yet. All they have is a few prototypes for cell testing and packaging calculations.
When all the drivers, mechanics, and every other human have been replaced with self drive self build and self everything, who will have any money to spend to make the need for movement of goods anymore, it’s called sealing your own down fall. 👍
Absolute rubbish and/or fear mongering. You have all seen that pic on YT where the street was full of horses and carts and 5-10 years later there was only one horse drawn vehicle. Autonomous driving will revolutionise transport economics and dispense with most drivers. But it will take a while as the legal and regulatory process will be long. All that surplus labour will be re-deployed by the market into more profitable (and nicer) jobs and industries.
nomad1944k average semi holds 200 gallons of diesel or 1400 pounds. So the average will be 700 pounds for a full tank assuming a linear burn rate. Good catch.
Google: Calculate around 8lb/gallon to be safe as the temperature will affect the weight slightly. Fuel tank capacity varies from truck to truck. 100 - 150 gallons per side is most common for OTR trucks.
I believe the weight of a semi is very important. When hauling across open spaces such as the middle United States, the winds out here tip the trucks over. Also mountain driving with black ice snow and various temperatures will have a factor to it also. Great video!
Great analysis. In the Netherlands the technical university of Eindhoven also did a similar analysis with similar results. Ps. Get the units right: kWh instead of Kwh. ;)
@Norm T I think it would be more accurate to say that at that time *_the laws came into existence._* They may be different, according to chance, each time a universe springs into existence. It's certainly something we don't know, and may be something we can _never_ know. FTL motion may set us the same problem. The forward arrow of time has something to do with these problems, I would suggest. This stuff is interesting, but hurts my brain. Other stuff hurts it too.
I’ll believe it when it actually happens. Still waiting for full-self-driving, using your Tesla as a FSD taxi and watching it make me money everyday while doubling in value, solar roof tiles that make any sense from a $ standpoint, “new” tunnel technology, etc etc etc.
The implied suggestion that the semis can achieve roughly the same range with 6-10x battery capacity (weight) of model 3 while weighing close to 20x (with load) and generating a lot more power is pretty much just madness. Anyone who has ever towed anything with a Tesla knows the range takes a massive nose dive with a trailer in tow.
I noticed he said batteries were half the weight, which I find hard to believe. In battery day they mention a lot of reduction in cost, but don't remember half which is black magic, at least for my simple mind. So it was kind of odd the assumptions he made, yes if you take a way the one thing that makes it so bad, it's going to be amazing, we already know maintenance and fuel is cheaper.
If you'd actually take and believe all numbers any marketing departement is publishing everything sounds good and great. That's literally the job definition of every marketing agent: 'Make it sound brilliant! - Enough people will believe it.'.
@@alleweg000 Tesla didn't even make the claims the video made. This video is 90+% hype from a fanboy.
@@pedrorequio5515 the teslabattery (4680) isn't even a great new battery honestly. BYD has the best new developments in that regard. Their future batteries can be air-cooled, are of the lithium iron fosfate kind and still manage to hit the same energydensity as Teslas wonderbattery. Also, have you seen BYD's teslakiller? Once that one will reach full production it is going to be a gamechanger
@@modash1231 "The implied suggestion that the semis can achieve roughly the same range with 6-10x battery capacity (weight) of model 3 while weighing close to 20x (with load)"
I would add that the claimed less than 2 kWh per mile energy consumption is less than 10x that of Model 3. With 20x more weight one would expect it to be more.
Energy density is insanely higher for diesel. The battery weight will always be a serious problem.
For the time being that is
@@coffmanjvboysvolleyball6402 For the time being gravity exists...
I’m a small trucking business owner (4 trucks) sometimes my drivers will do 500 to 750 miles a day the charging time would cut into drive time
Warehouses and stores only need to add a small battery charger so the truck can plug in while unloading. Hence no time lost charging and with the improvements since the semi was introduced you should easily be able to drive 750-800 miles a day. Not rocket science. Considering how much cheaper the semi will be to operate most customers should be willing to install small battery charging stations at thier unloading docks.
@@jamesshanks2614 who's going to pay for the charge at the dock?
@@MrGOLDENSHOT25 Who pays for the fuel? What is the difference. It will be a fraction of the cost. It can be reimbursed. Trying thinking harder and not picking at straws!
You can keep paying for diesel and repairs while your competitors save a fortune on lower ev costs and put you out of business. You can keep making excuses and not looking at the facts. LOL. What kind of business owner are you really anyway?
Don't they have to take breaks after so many hours within that mileage anyway? As others said, you can add range at delivery locations. Not think much?
My entire career is based on logistic and I can tell you that it sounds great but it’s not happening. At least on a large scale. Just like Tesla cars, we are not allow to work on or have our trust mechanics work of those vehicles. The turn around on getting your Tesla dealership pick up your car and have them fix it and back to you is a major issue. It WILL be worse with a commercial truck. Unless you’re a local guy doing peddle runs, it’s not happening.
Underrated comment.
You're making a huge assumption here - that Tesla will treat its commercial trucks the same as its consumer vehicles. I don't think this a reasonable assumption. Tesla has shown considerable business acumen, and I think they're smart enough to know that a commercial truck will need to be serviced under a different model.
You're making equally silly assumptions that a) Tesla commercial model will be the same as consumer and b) that they won't find ways to innovate around these issues. The electric transformation is happening right before our very eyes in both the consumer and commercials spaces whether you and or anyone else wants it to or not. The economics of it all don't lie and if you look at the acceleration curve in both cost and adoption of these technologies in that past 10 years, it's abundantly clear to anyone that wants to acknowledge reality, that electric is and will be the future. The electric transition is going to disrupt many industries far sooner than the average person realizes. Elon Musk is no idiot, this is happening.
@@jpcreativeimagery your making silly assumptions that any vehicle maker gives a shit how long they have your vehical for maintenance because the longer they have your truck the more you pay them we run into this problem all the time with the current truck makers and engine builders all these companies want you to do is buy there shit and when it breaks they try and up sell you more shit it's all about money for them they don't care about the ppl who buy their stuff just as long as they keep the share holders happy is the only thing that matters
@@pkuras I run a semi shop and can tell you that speed is a major consideration. I train my Technicians daily on electrical theory, as well as forward imaging and self driving. The two biggest slowdowns are waiting for parts, and waiting for approval from customers. Our goal is to have 7 out of 10 units repaired within a 24 hour time frame and we are currently running at about 6 out of 10. It can be done but it requires a well organized service facility.
This video already hasn’t aged well. I like the optimism, but trusting someone like musk who has rarely delivered on his promises and predictions is not smart.
thunderf00t had something to say about this (and made correct math)
Add in the "they'll use these batteries, which I'll guess will weigh this much, then they'll somehow shave 10% of the weight off without telling anyone" and it should have been clear there was too much guess work here to mean anything
Musk is just a con man whose sole aim with this promise was to pump the stock
@@daviidon no he's not.
He seems to usually deliver about 70-80% of what he promises.
And considering the crazy stuff he promises, a half of it would be a success...
Who’s here after SpaceX built the largest spacecraft in human history lol
Put everything on train. Job done
Would the train take the goods to the malls and the grocery stores?
@@BoiledChickeN69 well it could go in to the main DS.
Yes trains can't get stuff from the station to the mall per example but more trains better for long distances
@@friedrichvonhoffmeister3343 yeah its obviously better in long distances as it can carry in bulk and its cheaper. But for medium and short distances trucks are the best.
I have a question in America do they use trgains and trucks for long distance cargo hauls bc if that's the case the environmentally friendly way making better trucks is by making more trains + Elon said it beats rail in his Präsentation I think he is going insane
The remaining problem is recharge time. Some pretty heavy duty chargers will be needed and some organisation to minimise truck downtime due to charging.
@Norm T not of the battery is part of the structural integrity, swapping that would be time consuming. I could see early use of these trucks being a drop off the load with the truck as well and hop in a fresh charged one. A bit overkill as it require over double the necessary amount of trucks, but that just means more volume and money for tesla. In time they will find or make a way to have the battery last longer than one haul, and the only downtime for charging will be when the driver is sleeping.
@Norm T Yep, that would do it. Do we know if Elon’s truck is designed to do that?
@@P1ectrum this will be adopted to the bigger part of the trucking industry that does shorter runs and often does the same routes.
It should be really good for about 80% of the industry where charging infrastructure should be relatively easy.
Fast chargers are becoming a thing. Large vehicles will have multiple charging cables. There will be charging stations with refreshments etc as are starting to appear in Europe. The drivers will need to stop for a break some time the charging will happen then.
I think it’s important to add full self driving into the equation as well. Will the driver be needed or will a driver be able to rest or sleep during the trip? If so keeping the truck moving 24/7 would be economically very advantageous. Eventually batteries may be able to support very high energy charging with little cycle degradation. However, at present the swap and go battery pack might be the best answer. You can recharge at a slower rate saving battery degradation and require less investment in charging infrastructure. The downside is you need more investment in battery packs, a truck design which allows a plug-in battery and ideally some battery pack standardisation between truck manufacturers.
A lot of assumptions on battery weight and energy density there.
And a lot of assumptions on vehicle weight and operating costs.
What about recharge time. Long Haul is much further than 500 miles.
I think the current estimates are about 80% of routes are under 500 miles. So electric should still be pretty disruptive.
The smart money would be Heavy or Medium Rigid, as they do mostly urban work.
Big transport companies here "hot seat" their trucks. Electric would be useless for them.
Trucks only make money while they're moving - like aeroplanes.
@@nomercy4521 yeah, and they drive about 2 of them routes a day. So the battery wouldnt make it, never mind getting back to the depot.. Stop fuckin eating Musks ass and do your research.
Do you simple ppl think that truckers who do short hauls only have 1 route to do and are able to go home after 4 hours because the battery depleted?
@@nomercy4521 not in Canada. 500 miles is considered a regional, short haul run. For drivers going between, say Calgary and Edmonton (relatively flat highway, roughly 360 mile round trip, mostly freeway), they'll do 1.5 to 2 loads per day on that route. Can't do that on one charge. A load from Calgary to Vancouver is about 500 miles, takes a truck around 12-13 hours (in good road conditions) to do, and most truckers do that in a day (or overnight) trip.
@@jamesd2277 Aaaaand, that's illegal in most of the Western world. Many US States, and all countries of the EU, prohibit driving for more than 8 hours a day. And with speed limit for heavy duty vehicles sitting at 50-60 MPH, that fits snugly into 500 miles of range.
Untill you get into tandem driving, that's problematic.
4:55 You're subtracting 10% off the weight on the assumption that Tesla can make these semis with less parts than diesel semis but you're taking that 10% off the weight that includes the batteries and the electric motors. That sounds rather made up.
Also there is no way four 70lb electric motors will produce the 1200 to 1800 ft/lbs of torque the diesel engine produces.
4:16 he also say tesla is going to cut their battery weight in half, this is not something that is done in 1-2-3, i did not find any info backing up this claim
There is absolutely no way that in the near future batteries will have enough energy density that they are light enough to compete with diesel.
Yeaaaah that “and then the truck will be 10% lighter because Tesla can do that, it’s not that hard” is a little bit tough to swallow. If it was really that easy to take 10% off the weight of trucks, it would have been done a long time ago. If Tesla had already done it, they would be bragging about it. If Tesla thought they could do it, they would also be bragging about it, there’s nothing Elon Musk brands do quite like making vague promises
@@modern5387 "If it was really that easy to take 10% off the weight of trucks, it would have been done a long time ago."
To be fair to him, EVs don't need some parts that ICE cars or trucks do. E.g. most electric cars don't have a gearbox (with e.g. some electric race cars as exceptions). However, a reduction of weight equal to 10% of the weight of a truck (with the battery and electric motors included) sounds a bit overly optimistic. At least he should have justified that figure with some data.
Avg truck is well under 20k lbs and can carry 45k in cargo. You wait in line to fuel now, how long to charge? Trucks drive well over 100k miles per year, teams double that. My 2017 has 500k now. I think electric trucks are great but this industry is based on logistics. Your videos dont address this.
Logistically, isn't there a lot of trucking routes that are short and repetitive?
Distribution centers to outlets and what not?
Seems like there should be a major market for these, but they currently won't replace all internal combustion.
@@nomercy4521 those are mostly done on smaller box trucks
@@CommieCat which they are going to make a smaller, no sleep cab, version.
Charging takes place at night while the driver is asleep. Depots will have the chargers and fuel stations will start to install chargers as well.
There is not enough room for a truck to sit at a shipper or receiver to charge. Guys run out of hours now and have to move because there is no room to park.
Drive down the highway at night and look at all the trucks parked wherever they can fit. On ramps, rest areas, vacant lots, ect. There isnt enough parking now.
The US supply chain uses trucks as rolling warehouses for just in time delivery.
Anyone who wants can ride with me for week. I promise you will see that electric trucks and autonomous trucks will not be seen in any significant numbers for a long time.
8:28 We already have that technology. It's called a train (1 new advantage of them with CoViD-19 is that to transport the same amount of cargo, fewer drivers are needed, & thus less time is needed to have them tested when crossing borders, meaning less waiting at border checkpoints. Recently the queues of trucks entering Singapore from neighbouring Malaysia became significantly longer after the former required drivers to be tested before entering, causing ~3500 chickens in some of the trucks to die while in the queue (due to heatstroke & starvation I heard, probably because the transporting company hadn't provided food for the chickens as it hadn't expected so much waiting in such a long queue)
but trains can only go where we build train tracks and sadly this cuts off 50% of the world that can only be accessed by road, sea, and or air.
@@kai-vp8mz That plus, trains don't go straight to the place the stuff is meant to go. For example, trains don't stop at Walmarts to drop of their cargo, while a semi-truck does go directly to the Walmart.
@@cedarcoombs8111 Noooooooo train good, truck bad!! I only know one solution that I spam every time anyone tries to talk about the subject! Train good!!!!!!!!
Didn't take into account lifespan of vehicles-- do you think that lifespan of a Tesla Semi is comparable to a traditional diesel truck?
I would think so but probably costly battery replacements?:)
Lifespan would be longer. 1 million mile warranty on drivetrain and battery. Cost savings on truck would pay for new truck or two even if it lasted half as long. Not to mention less downtime, accidents and repair issues and loss of business with a diesel. Less brake changes and windshield replacements and downtime from that as well. Have any of you been paying attention?
Why would there be less accidents?
Traditional diesel trucks also have regen braking, aka engine braking so the brakes savings is exxageraged just like every other “savings” claim
Something tells me no. What hardware technology has lasted decades? Even with software updates, it usually is outlived by the size and complexity of updates
@@ariip
So many issues with this. Let's unpack it...
1) Diesel power trains are the longest lasting part of the truck. The cab and chassis has issues long before you have to swap engines in most cases. Big diesels commonly run 500,000-1mill miles before having major internal work done. And then they just replace cylinder packs and a head gasket and get another 500k.
2. Trucks already have exhaust brakes. Brake savings from regen braking are negligible when compared to diesel tractors.
3. Less windshield replacements?? Uhhh, maybe? But even then, those windshields would be way more expensive than a typical truck windshield due to the design.
Please add metric conversions, greetings from switzerland
You mean.. Greetings from the other six continents... And Canada.... And Mexico... And the carribean
Lol. Get behind the world's powerhouse. Stop wasting our time with your metric nonsense.
@@TakeNoneForTheTeam it would be nice if you maybe upgrade to somthing a little more modern like imperial.
Welcome to 15th century
especially given he is from Denmark himself.
Don't forget. Bill Gates also once said "No one will ever need more than 640 Kb of memory"
He denied saying it.
Hang on, I might have a video of it on an old betamax tape LOL
Gamers: “hold my rtx 3090”
Urban legend. Absolutely no evidence.
not even relevant really
Freightening*
missed opportunity
This is gold
Ba-dum tsss
Yeah I don't understand how this is frightening in any way... But it definitely is freightening
I was afreight someone would go there...
I bet the "structural battery" they talked about at Battery Day, where the battery cans are integrated as part of the structure of the chassis, will play a big role in the Semi weight reduction.
Additionally, if they're going full autonomous vehicle they can nix just about every safety feature you would normally need. No living quarters, no air conditioning, you could even minimize the design of the cab if you wanted. Just have a giant aerodynamic wedge. Plus there's no traditional drivetrain weight at all, including transmission, driveshaft, differentials, solid axles, etc, no radiators (which contain coolant at 7lbs a gallon), no lead-acid batteries, etc. It should be pretty easy to make a truck at a competitive weight imo.
@@samueljardine3402 how much would you save on brakes thanks to regenerative braking?
@@berova Quite a lot considering there were Model S drivers that reached something like 100k miles without the need to change pads or disks.
@@samueljardine3402 The batteries and drivetrain still require radiators/coolant.
You will not need batteries but super caps larger motors need to be able to dump more energy much faster and that will explode batteries. We still have Tesla’s that crash with autopilot on pretty sure we are a large way away from autonomously driving heavy vehicles. And we completely gloss over the fact of space that batteries will takes. Batteries degrade especially in cold environments.
The economics don't look so good when you don't compare it with one of the most expensive trucks on the road. A day cab International is only about $100k.
What about a sleeper??
@@katewelsh5182 That costs more on all trucks. The $180k extended- range Tesla didn't have a sleeper, though they have talked about adding one. Given its range and charging time, the Tesla will be best for short-hauls, which are usually operated using day cabs.
Now factor in its autonomous functionality and deduct the truck drivers income.
@@dave.8808 When they have that, it'll definitely be a plus, but it will come at a cost. The beta version of self driving on the Model 3 cost my brother $10k. Imagine how much they'll add to a Tesla big rig for that feature when it's fully functional.
@@Jeffhowardmeade It's the same tracking algorithm, scaled up. Your brother payed 10k for a feature that can literally just be turned on.
The dealbreaker is that charging an electric semi takes SEVERAL hours. That is more money lost than made compared to a diesel truck.
How many trucks drive 24/7? AFAIK, even in tandem driving there's an 8 hour stop at night. Single driver scenarios get it even easier.
@@benjaminparent4115 Absolutely. These stations don't exceed 5,000$ a piece. It's perfectly feasible.
@@benjaminparent4115 Fast chargers are more expensive, that's true. They're closer to 60-70.000$. But 43 kW three-phase AC stalls, which would be the most likely candidate for long haul overnight charging, cost around 5.000$. Those would only work for single drivers though, since charging a big rig at that power would take some 15 hours - far too long for tandem driving.
yeah to make up for time lost during charging, you'd need 2 tesla trucks instesd of 1 diesel. also, musks new "denser" batteries arent more dense... for 50% extra charge, they also gain 50% mass... so they are just bigger batteries. finally, there is no indication whether the 500mi range accounts full cargo or an empty trailer, with the former having reduced the range for obvious reasons
@@wojciechmuras553 You apparently have no idea of the parking shortage that most drivers face who have to run later in the evening or at night. As a driver who runs the North East, I rarely park legally as there's just not enough spots. Even if they put a charging station in each legal spot, it still wouldn't be enough. These batteries are going to leave many people stranded.
There is no way in hell the tesla semi ends up costing 180k. More like 300k
They're literally selling them already.
@@wojciechmuras553 they are NOT selling them, they're taking orders. Orders and sales are not the same thing. When the vehicle has been delivered, that would constitute a sale.
@@wojciechmuras553 How is it that they sell them "literally" and we still have to guess the weight and maximum cargo, based on marketing figures?
@@wojciechmuras553 Selling them already? On no planet are they selling them. Taking "reservations" for something that at this stage looks more like vaporware than a usable product isn't selling anything.
@L M A Mack truck costs $150k. A Mack engine is ~$50k. So a truck itself will be around $100k.
Tesla currently produces their batteries at 143$/kWh. Most people tend to agree, that the LR version of the Semi holds about 1000 kWh of batteries. Easy calculation tells us, that will be $143k for the battery.
So, an LR Semi, with a bit of profit margin, can easily do $250k. That's more than expected, but not far from the target. The SR model is even closer.
What about the lifetime of the batteries? They need to go over 500k km with (probably) a lot of fast charging. The replacement for those will cost a fortune. And there is no infrastructure. All those badboys need to be changed throughout the night. That will cost a fortune.
With that kind of range, I don't think most Semis will ever see a fast charger. Overnight charging will most likely mean ~50 kW, which is pathetically slow for something this enormous. I'm not worried about longevity at all.
@@wojciechmuras553 A truck driver averages 700 miles a day, the truck has a maximum range of 600 miles, which actually must be 450 miles if we know Tesla well. Which means the tesla truck wouldn't be able to do a full day's work. Not to mention that as time goes by, the range of the batteries gets smaller and smaller, which worsens this problem.
You say these trucks won't need fast charging? You are crazy ? If a normal car takes about 8 hours to charge with a socket that is not a fast charger, how long do you think a truck with more than 10x the battery size will take connected to the same charger? Fast charger is the only way, but insted of 1h, the truck will take long hours to charge. This without talking about the giant cost for a company to employ globally. SIDE NOTE: Most of the times, the destination of a truck is not the company's headquarters, that is, it may not have (certainly won't) a place for that truck to charge, and even if there is a fast charger, have you seen a tesla charging place with space for several trucks ? And where would these drivers sleep? The tesla truck doesn't even have a bed
lithium batteries degrade at high charging cycle numbers. Hence battery replacement and disposal are required every two or three years for these high vehicle-kilometer-traveled vehicles. This would potentially raise the overall cost significantly.
Time is money when it comes to shipping freight. Current semi’s have double/triple that range on diesel before refueling. These might be good for short distance freight transport but not really for long distance due to short mileage and recharge times.
Statistics show most routes are below 500 miles. Sure it won't completely replace the need for combustion engines immediately, but it should be good for a significant amount if not the majority of trucking.
DOT limits the number of hours a driver can drive in a 24 hour period. Range is limited by DOT rules, not fuel. The reason diesel trucks have such a large range has more to do with convenience of fewer stops and the cost of fuel. If a driver can save a few cents per gallon, he will wait to fill. If he is low on fuel, he is at the mercy of the local resellers.
@@briangc1972 they limit hours not distance. I do over 700 miles in 11 hours everytime I go out. It's a dropnhook route so when I hit my destination (352 miles) I swap the trailers which takes maybe 5 minutes and begin my return trip with only a 30 minute break on the way back. No extra stops between. I get payed by the mile, so time spent sitting still is pointless and waisted. That extra 5 minutes could be much better spent at home rather than work.
I would assume it's true most trips are sub 500 miles, however that's not how trucking works. It's a problem with the industry no doubt but it is the state of things. Instead of assigning a local to simply work that account logistics companies choose to bounce drivers across the country one stop at a time.
So you might run 3 250 mile routes in a day. Each trip is less than 300 miles but combined it's 750. When you can only drive for 11 and be on the clock for 14 there's not much room for anything extra.
I like the idea, I think in many applications it's fine. As it is currently implied though it's not practical for much outside of local work. Which is fine, less noise, no exhaust, I just see many people that don't have an understanding of how the industry looks on the ground vs on paper and they make a lot of assumptions based on that.
Maybe we should move to using rail for long distance freight. It can carry far more cargo over a longer distance more quickly and in a more ecologically friendly manner. We then use these electric trucks to do the “first mile” and “last mile” part of the journey.
@@leopold7562 This would make more sense, but the cost of shipping would climb because now more people (who must be paid) are handling the freight and railroad freight rates can be very high (most railroads are union).
These vehicles have to be treated as an "ecosystem", like a professional camera. The support systems in place that keep traditional heavy trucks on the road are well established and understood; refueling, maintenance, accessories, etc., and truckers are not going to tolerate the customer service and self repair bullshit that they throw at their traditional customers. Tesla has to build an easily adoptable ecosystem tailored to the trucker's environment. It's probably reasonably easy to get into local trucking, but it will be a long time before they break into long haul unless they completely overhaul how they deal with the service and repair side.
THIS! The electric truck would be PERFECT for "last mile" delivery (think UPS and FedEx) where the truck returns to a single depot every day. OTR trucking... not so much.
hit the nail right on the head.
Now, Some people are saying that loading bays could build in charging stations. The problem with that is most trucks dont take all that long to unload.
It would take at least an hour, I imagine to recharge the truck. I used to run local deliveries and dealt with many receiving delartments. I cant see any of em tolerating a truck hanging out for an hour plus... also, Efficiency is important for truckers.
Im sure the tesla lovers will jump on me for saying this, but batteries suffer an energy density problem. 10 kg of deisel simply produces more energy than 10kg of battery.
And it takes 30 seconds to pump 10kg of deisel into your truck.
Personally i think long haul teslas are still aways away.
"people have to learn" is one of the worst excuses to make for outdated technology
@@swaghauler8334 I work for a delivery company similar to UPS and we are already beginning (slowly) to adopt electric vans. This is definitely the best start. I’m surprised Tesla didn’t release a van before a Tesla truck.
@@swaghauler8334 Aye it be like the new Scania all electric trucks that are solely for local deliveries. Perfect application for them, long haul though not so much as they simply dont have the range needed.
It is very entertaining to watch Elon move his hands around dramatically without saying anything.
And subtract the weight of fuel of a engine truck.
Yep
full tank of fuel weighs anywhere from 875 to 2,100 pounds
@@AWESEM0 really? Thats more than I expected. Thank you thats great to know
@@jappe4762 Diesel weighs approx 7lbs per gallon.
Gas and diesel is surprisingly heavy. Light sport cars feel a little faster when the gas tank is almost empty compared to full.
At his Axel Springer award discussion in Germany recently, Elon said two things of interest about the Semi. The first is that the production version will get better range - up to 621 miles for the more expensive version (close to a thousand kilometers). The second is that he expects a weight penalty of possibly a thousand pounds, with a developmental path to eliminate the penalty entirely in future years. Which verifies your estimate.
The Semi will be suitable for long-haul routes in the US, because drivers are required by law to limit their hours of operation, so there will be plenty of time for recharging. However, Tesla is developing its next version of Superchargers, so we can also expect charging times to fall. I see no obstacle to using the Semi, not just on most routes, but all of them.
Another advantage of the Semi: it can maintain speeds on long uphill grades very easily, even with max cargo aboard. For routes through mountains, it will arrive faster than diesel Semis. It also has an enormous advantage on downgrades. There will be little brake wear and a larger safety factor, since regenerative braking can be supplemented with brake pads at need.
And yet another advantage: Tesla intends to equip the Semi with anti-jackknife software. This is impossible for conventional Semis, but quite possible for electric Semis equipped with 4 individually-controlled motors.
Plus, even if autonomy isn't permitted (it won't be for a few years, I'm thinking), using FSD as a driver assist will be safer. Accident rates will decrease, and eventually, insurance rates should decline once the accident stats show up at insurers' desks. I fully expect FSD will eliminate too-tall trucks crashing into too-low bridges.
The Semi may be the most disruptive product from Tesla yet. They'll easily sell all they can produce.
@Urgelt Not exactly. The math in this video is very positive towards Tesla. We will need to wait for the official weights. Day cabs are around 15K and a sleeper cabs are around 20K in LBS of weight.
Every LB not carried on each load is more important than running cost right now, especially without the charging infrastructure.
Every market is not solved by charging either. Approximately 30% of the market is LTL for class 8 trucking in the US and most of these trucks have a 24/5 duty cycle. As the truck is used in the city it is turned and ran overnight. This does bring up a charging question/issue.
The current market I see for the Tesla semi is city route operations until commercial delivery fleets can fit the truck into heavy loading operations. Once it has proven itself that it is reliable, durable, and better in every way it will then be adopted by long haul truckers. This is a lucrative market in North America but also one of the toughest markets to pernitrate. I hope Elon is ready for taking everyone on.
@@aqgh1 I imagine there will be use cases for which the Semi is not the best choice - particularly the use case you described, where multiple drivers are taking turns keeping the truck in operation over multiple shifts.
I think those will be a small percentage of use cases.
There is no obstacle to testing a Semi on a long haul route right out of the box. And testing it on short haul routes doesn't prove it's fit on long haul routes. What I expect is that fleet customers will buy some, then put them immediately to work on the routes they want them on.
It's true we don't know their official weights. And I didn't claim that we did. I merely quoted Elon's remarks from his Axel Springer visit.
A thousand pounds less cargo capacity in an 80,000 lb truck is a disadvantage. It may be less of a disadvantage than the higher operating costs are for diesel semis, or the worse safety we expect from diesel semis, or the larger insurance premiums for diesel semis, which will likely emerge as a Tesla advantage once enough safety data is accumulated to prove the case.
@@Urgelt how many trucks actually reach their max weight? Not all bulk goods have the same weight density.
@@4philipp Freight haulers do try to maximize their volume and gross weight utilization. Even so, for many runs, rigs are not fully loaded.
The weight penalty for the Semi won't be much. I expect the economic hit from a slightly smaller cargo capacity to be overwhelmed by the economic advantages of cheaper per-mile costs.
Batteries are not the answer..the physics and economies are not there.
Electric is the way...
Trains are electric motors..even in North America the locomotives are diesel electric...diesel generators driving electric motors.
Cruise ships are electric motors powered by diesel generators.
Electric motors .have immediate torque..linear.
They use electric for power...but imagine the batteries to power a train..a ship....not realistic...
We need to think of hydrogen for heavy transport..the way we used to think of diesel vs gasoline..
There is room for both hydrogen and battery
Powered electric vehicles..
I'm a driver coordinator for a large trucking company and a Tesla owner. So please keep that in mind when I say that this is not feasible yet.
1) The charging infrastructure is not in place and will not be for at least a decade to handle a large volume of these trucks.
2) The electrical grid would need a huge build out to be able to handle that charging infrastructure.
3) While its true 80% of routes are short range, its that 20% that breaks this model entirely.
4) The charging times are far too long.
5) The 500 mile range it in ideal conditions. I can guarantee you that heavy headwinds, uphill in mountains or both will chop that range down considerably.
6) The battery chemistry is completely unacceptable. The cost of the rare earth metals will only go up over time as they are depleted. And battery recycling does not have a 1:1 ratio
7) As these batteries degrade, so will their range. Making fully serviceable trucks useless for their assigned routes. And while short term maintenance cost SHOULD be much lower, the regular replacement of battery packs will take away any advantage over traditional trucks.
The grid and charging infrastructure issues should be addressed immediately. This would take at least a decade of effort. And that has not happened at all.
But the issue that will prevent mass adoption more than anything are the charging times. The only time a driver can afford to sit and park long enough to get a charge like this would during their 10 hour break. That would mean you would need hundreds of chargers at truckstops and at every terminal.
The current power grid would fail completely with that much continuous draw.
Until we get solid state batteries that charge much more quickly with the infrastructure to support it, this is in no way economically feasible.
Have you ever towed with an electric vehicle? Now try and tow a heavy container and see how much range you have left
Yeah. Tow anything with any vehice and see what the range is in comparison to unladen.
Also the ither thing that irks me. Semi trailers have all kinds add ons available for increasing areo dynamic efficiencies. Especially compared to the average trailer pulled by a smaller class of vehicle. Y'all havent seen what that does for mileage, its amazing.
I’d recommend giving your podcast a title that reflects the subjects covered here for more subscribers
He's not smart enough.
This video is splitting hairs. It skates right passed the biggest issue: 300-500 mile range. Diesel trucks can get 2x to even 4x that range on one tank. Besides that, OTR, long haul trucks try to go at least 500 miles in a day, with the ultimate goal being 600-800. You can't stop and recharge for an hour because you'll be losing money. Furthermore, the part in the video talking about fuel costs says that it costs a diesel truck $300 to go 500 miles. Any trucker could tell you that $0.60 a mile is the TOTAL operating cost of a diesel semi (truck payments, insurance, IFTA, etc). If your fuel costs that much per mile, we'd have switched to electric a long time ago, even if that meant less payload. Don't get me wrong - I'm all for electric, diesel if freaking awful and I can't wait until everyone starts to actively care about and work towards saving our planet. However, I think this video misses the big picture that's currently holding Tesla back and the reason for current big rig manufacturers not pledging to switch to electric like regular auto makers have.
1:36 "as it is clear he doesn't know anything about this topic"
And what exactly are your qualifications to talk about this topic then?
Well, he's very good with napkin calculus..
Bill gates knows more than this guy will ever will, he's being too emotional in this video! Bill gates been with the deepest minds of elite people, with industries and factors activity PARTICIPATING in these things, how cna he say he doesn't know about where the battery industry outperformed? 🤔
@@malikashtar7216 Where in this video was Bill Gates ever mentioned?
@@asandax6 click the time stamp 1:13
@@malikashtar7216 OK thanks
You should have at least mentioned the lack of charging infrastructure. Until that exists these will be relegated to short range delivery and return routes.
Like Amazon.
That will be a huge issue.
It takes about 10 - 15 minutes to fill a truck with fuel. With a 0-45 minute wait to get to the pump.
They put in charging stations in the yards. 5-8 min charge time for ever 100 miles. Even mores saving on the time wasted fueling desiel.
@@sparksmcgee6641
1. Long haul drivers that are in the yard are not making money and that adds up fast. Long haul drivers get paid by the mile and get 1 day of hometime (time off the truck) for every 6 or 7 days. That is about 3-4 days at home a month.
2. If shippers and receiver build those charging stations, if they even let outside carriers to use them, THEY WILL CHARGE 2 - 4 TIMES as much for electricity plus costs of building that station.
This is a good option for short haul, LTL, and day run things. But will cost the company how many loads can move.
Every charge will take 10 - 15 minutes for stopping at the station plus time to charge.
@@sparksmcgee6641 Yeah but then the savings of fuel cost get eaten up pretty quick. A Fast DC charger large enough to handle a battery this size costs over $100,000 up front per charger and that doesnt even include the power grid upgrades that will be required at the yard. My company is already selling EV trucks but the adoption rate is extremely slow, no because people dont like the trucks, but because the up front cost to support an EV truck is MASSIVE.
A load capacity of 9t and no ability to drive express to any location using a second driver makes these as practical as a sewer submarine to beat the traffic you created for yourselves. They're perfect for a novelty racing league though. Just need airport grade fire crews and RC controls to keep people at a safe distance from the lithium explosions.
9 ton at best
This is my experience as a small fleet owner. You keep mixing up the differences between a long haul truck and a short haul truck. Short haul truck, a 3 axle, day cab (no sleeper) to buy new is around $127,000 and weights around 15,000 lbs, a two axle costs less and weights less. A long haul truck (sleeper)costs around $147,000 and weights around 19,000 lbs., the weight of the trailer needs to be added on to get to the 25,000 to 32,000 lb. tare weight. On a long haul, when I drive 70 mph I get 8.5 mpg. and drive 650 miles in one shift. It does make a difference on the initial cost, I buy used low mileage trucks for 60 to 70k, I save 70k on the depreciation, The truck shown has one seat in it and I can't tell but is there a sleeper berth in it? No sleeper then you have a hotel bill every night, that's $.18 a mile cost. It can't be a team driven truck because it can only go 500 miles, no fleet is going to pay 180k for a truck that can only go maybe 500 miles a day. I'm sure there will be huge tax incentives for companies to buy them and drive them on the tax payers dime. Elon is well connected has vision and the gift of gab, thank goodness, because I bought some Tesla stock before the split and it is now up 50% .
That’s a good point about team driving. I hadn’t considered that.
Don't forget that subsidies for fossil fuels vastly outweigh those for alternatives which will decay to zero quickly anyway unless renewed by future legislation.
@Norm T Selling is not the same as utilizing and our stupid governor's executive order might be overturned by the next. Useless Newsom only did that so he can claim credit for what is going to happen anyway mostly before 2030.
Funny how the people crowing about how great the Tesla Semi have absolutely no knowledge of how trucking works. Let alone ever driving long distances on a regular basis. It's also telling that all of the information about the Tesla Semi is the usual hype from Musk and not from any independent testing,
@@chrisose Although typically on "Elon time", aka. late, for every vehicle offered so far the real specifications have *exceeded* the hype when independently tested. At some point you just, tentatively at least, take his word for it.
I too have been skeptical about batt mass for long range trucking but bats just took a big step in wt. reduction and charging speed increase with more improvements all but inevitable. It may take a few yrs but you too will be driving a Tesla semi (or competing brand E-truck), assuming you drive trucks as implied. And you'll love it.
In addition to the weight savings achieved by eliminating the ICE, one also eliminates the weight of the transmission and drivetrain, which must be significant.
Getting rid of the exhaust system must also be a huge weight savings. I know that’s part of the ICE system, but wanted to make the point, as those parts alone must be close to 500 pds.
I was wondering if he accounted for full fuel tanks?
There are no weight savings, only a weight penalty. There is a potential advantage in improved weight distribution, a bit of ballast in the right place might stop you getting blown over.
@@jamescaley9942 I suspect Tesla’s truck will actually be lighter than a traditional truck, but time will tell. They just redesigned the batteries and housing , shaving even more weight from the design. The great thing about electric is the technology is just getting started, so there will be more break throughs..
@@jamescaley9942 ballest doest really matter, its centre off gravity. With 99% off the semis wieght below the wheels it will almost impossible to flip a semi.
Rough maths if it 25k that leaves 55k load.
With 25k load vs 25k truck the means you need to get 40k off that load over the point off no return.
Over the 90 deg angle off a trailer that's 24 degrees
Then add another 20 degrees as the base off the truck is below the trailer by that much and you're looking at 15 degrees and the truck still falling back onto its wheels.
Admitly is be 5h111tong my self if I was in a truck they get flipped 75degrees and then fell back.
Most likely outcome is the trailer getting ripped off the truck.
Thank you and congrats to your promotion as Tesla's head of marketing.
I will remain unconvinced until Tesla semi delivers trailer full of washing machines to electronics store across the street.
300-500 is a short haul. It's one clock cycle in a worst case scenario.
In the EU you can only drive 9 hours at a time due to regulations, that means you can average 55mph or 90kph and not lose anything
@@cornishalps9870
Ever heard of 2 drivers? You can drive a lot more than you think. In fact with 3 drivers can pretty much non-stop.
Might not be perfect for everyone right now but alot of trucks run depot to depot and others stay close to home.
@@gusdrivinginaustralia6168
Doesn't matter. The problem of range remains.
@@bobfg3130 still early days, range will grow. Charging at base/depot.
2:10
80.000 USA pounds = 36 tons
Why don’t you use internationally recognizable units? 😐
@SMA Productions you sir need to leave the internet
@SMA Productions because literally everyone is smarter than the average US citizen
A Kilogram is about 2 pounds. You’re welcome.
I was a longhaul trucker for the first four years of the 90s. My best driving days were over 700 miles, so longhaul wouldn't be a good application for the Tesla truck.
We will not see feature complete self driving in 2021 ... but it's coming.
Thank you for the deep dive on the economics though, very thought provoking.
Not that deep a dive into economics.
80% of loads maybe... but NOT 80% of miles driven. Every long haul is 500 - 3500 miles. Anything less is not long haul. And we do not have charging stations. That will require at least 250,000 charging stations probably more and will slow the speed of freight noticeable.
companies are not going to let $100000-$300000 of merchandise travel unaccompanied
@@DSAK55 Right... people will just wear face mask and have a field day on the trucks
this is anything but a deep dive. It's just random figures completely at odds with what analysts expect.
A lot of people are commenting on battery recharge time but they are looking at the problem in a vey narrow minded way. China's NIO has already figured this out with a swappable pack business model. Other Companies like Hyliion have hybrid a generator system that will recharge in real-time in development and will be in production within several years - this is aimed at the commercial trucking space. These are just two examples. As far as pack life goes, there will be continued and accelerated development in lithium tech and of course we have companies like quantamscape corp and others working on solid state batteries. It's quite clear that we will solve any of these remaining issues and that this transition will happen, and happen much more quickly than the average person realizes (already is happening, right before our eyes).
It seems that a recurring mistake for many critics, not just for Tesla, is that they do not add the possibility that technology can be improved.
they probably live in a world where product actually has to be delivered to demanding customers , not just talked about breathlessly to non critical fanboys
@@yarpos So model 3s etc do not exist? those were deemed impossible, vapourware..
@@christopherclanton1986 are you this ignorant of battery technology?
And a recurring mistake for fanboys is that they do not consider externalities from production etc...
But the amount of people who would loose their jobs 😑 me for example would be homeless if I couldn't drive truck this is my living
Let’s hope Tesla manufacturing is consistent for each semi
What about the lifetime of the vehicle? Those savings don’t mean a whole lot if the thing only lasts half as long as a Diesel.
If a diesel lasts less than 30 months then you have a good point.
Diesels can last probably 100 years with good maintenance an attention, I think saying that a electric semi can last 50 years is a stretch.
@@realcanadian67 That’s ridiculous and no one is saying that. You’re seriously claiming that an electric vehicle won’t pay for itself because it won’t last 50 years? It only needs to last 15 months to pay for itself and be cheaper than the diesel. How long a diesel can continue to be more expensive to run is irrelevant.
@@PhilHibbs true, but then also look at my name
I like trains, not trucks
A railfan isn't a person who would usually be seen talking facts about trucks..
There are two factors preventing electrification. The dropping cost of fossil fuels and the increasing cost of green electricity.
And the reserves of Lithium. For now it's ok because it's still a niche market, but in the long term, we'd better find an efficient alternative to lithium-based batteries.
You’re assume maintenance costs and repairs would be charged at the same rate as diesel. I doubt this will be the case for at least the first 10 years of transition.
Well no he’s assuming their charged at the same rate as other electric vehicles. How is it suddenly different because it’s a semi?
lets talk a new battery pack...... Ow, right.. Thats about 1/3 of the trucks total cost lol.
No one has addressed this yet; a big part of fuel price is federal and state “road tax” often times this can be about .60 a gallon. You better believe the government will find a way to start charging these electric vehicles for using their roads that are being paid for by fuel gasoline/diesel powered vehicles
It’s also worth noting that these semis often go over a million miles... hopefully these Tesla’s can keep up with that
It seems strange that the government is so determined to tax fuel heavily for road use, but they are notorious for giving out lavish tax breaks to the oil companies. Then they freak out that people want the minimum wage increased so they don’t have to eat rice six times a week.
One point that should be covered more is the TIME of maintenance. If a truck needs less maintenance, that means it could be more on the road shipping around. Another HUGE point in favour of the Tesla Semi.
But if you are going to play fairly you should account for the time that will take to charge those batteries compared to just pumping diesel and be on your way, do that several times per day, per week, per month, per year and you will be surprised the time you ended up parked next to the superchargers vs the fuel pump.
I still love Tesla but I won’t deny the downsides.
Also when it comes to maintenance back when Tesla was having manufacturing problems to built the Model 3 it was impossible to find replacement parts to make repairs on the Model 3 that were already on the road, Tesla was way behind in building the cars so didn’t even pay attention to just extra spare parts so a friend of mine that had a Model 3 at the time had an accident and took the car to the shop and it took Tesla 2 months to get ahold of the part needed to fix my friend’s car... 2 freaking months was that car parked at the shop and the part wasn’t a engine or something overcomplicated , it was a passenger door and it took 2 months for Tesla to afford to make it and ship it to the shop, for a trucker to hace your truck in the shop not moving for 2 months you might as well declare bankruptcy because the bills keep coming every month and they need to be paid.
@@fgrodriguezqac What if I told you that a driver must still, by law, be parked to rest? what if this time coincides with the charging time, like when you return to home and charge your vehicle while you sleeping? What if the vehicle could charge while being loaded and unloaded in the warehouse? with no intention of offending, but your observations make no sense because they are made by those who are not in the trade. I'm a driver, and for me the Tesla Semi will be revolutionary for many reasons.
Regards spare parts availablity, Model 3 and its logistic hell is a story of 2017, if I remember well: I hope they learned from their mistakes.
@@tozzasque I’m a CDL-A driver as well, and yes drivers have to rest but it’s only 30 minutes brake after 8 hours of driving, Megachargers aren’t out yet so your only option is Superchargers which for the Semi isn’t fast enough having a 1 megawatt battery. After 11 hrs of driving time you must take a 10 hour brake, that’s when I feel the truck will be charging and making the best of it.
I’m not saying is impossible but the timing will have to be nearly perfect and hopefully the chargers will be available when you arrive, have you been at a Supercharger station in the State of California?, most times you have to wait in line to use the superchargers because of the amount of Teslas parked taking all the spots and those are cars with small batteries compared to what the semi will carry.
Again, I am not saying it is impossible but you will have to perfectly plan that your 30 minute break will take place at a charging station, then you will have to plan that your 10 hour break will also be at a charging station and then you also have to be lucky to find an available station for you to charge and before you say anything about Tesla building thousands of Megachargers to avoid all being taken may I remind you the electricity require to run 1 Megacharger let alone thousands of them? A Megacharger uses 1.6 megawatts, at those numbers you can’t afford to install on the side of the highway hundreds of them, you might as well build a nuclear plant right next to them.
Also your dispatchers are always on your ass about stopping too often and making sure the wheels are turning for as long as you have time in your daily allowance so is not like you can continuously stop to charge and have the luxury of spending time charging, time is a precious thing in trucking.
I will definitely buy myself one when they release the one with a sleeper cabin but I’m a owner operator so I’m my own boss, I can stop as many times as I want to and do whatever the hell I want, company drivers don’t have that luxury. Anyways, I’m pro Tesla but is not all roses, it has its benefits but it also has its downsides and logistical barriers that still need to be overcome.
@@fgrodriguezqac You make a really good point, but you are talking about a few years from when the Semi is released. As far as I know, Tesla is taking strict contact with companies that ordered the Semi to install megachargers along the routes, to prioritize the customers who bought them in the first place, instead of going blind.
Another point I don't fully agree with is the time of charging. Elon in the presentation said that time will more or less coincide with time of resting. Someone supposed that the Semi will have 2 pack to charge simultaneously.
We will see how they will manage this new challenge, but if we know Elon, what they will come up with will be brilliant as usual.
@@tozzasque oh, absolutely, I wouldn’t bet against Elon Musk, the guy keeps proving everyone’s wrong. He will definitely find the solution. Internal combustion engines are doomed to extension, in a few more decades the only ICE vehicles will be those people that want to keep muscle cars and they will all have a license plate showing “antique” underneath of it. LoL, electric cars are here to stay, it will be interesting when they start coming up with passenger planes fully electric, I hope i live long enough to see that.
You're forgetting that trucks only make money when the wheels are rolling, diesel trucks can run 24hrs a day with a team. Thats more than 2x the revenue of the Tesla, as it's getting charged while we keep on trucking. And we can run up to 1400 miles per day as a team. A trip may be less than 500mi, but we reload and keep moving. It's clear you've never drove a truck to understand the true reality.
That’s fair but they will hurdle that problem
@@itscrispy4469 and when they do,... Great! But they will always have to recharge, we don't and run for weeks at a time.
@@thewombat4377 true
There are plenty of semi not running 12 hours. Linehaul sure, but intercity like London to Newcastle, Sydney to Canberra will love this
@@happyhappynuts You're right... this will work for them if they don't run shifts on local runs. One driver goes home and another takes over, but no, the truck had to be charged. Just like airplanes, trucks got to keep moving in this economy to turn profit.
500 miles @ 1.8 KWH per mile (using the unrealistic claim)=900 KWH. $130/900= 14.4 cents per KWH which is the average residential rate; Commercial trucking companies aren't going to get it that cheap and if you have to get it at a truck stop or other away from ho me base you are going go pay more like 28 to 35 cents per KWH ! And remember that getting that 900 Net KWH charge does not include charger and heating losses - it will take around 975 KWH to get it. 975 KWH X $.28 per KWH = $273 this is a more realistic number.
Additional factor: insurance. FSD or even just active safety features could cause huge operational savings.
Good thought. It is coincidental that you bring this up, as today I paid the State Farm insurance premium on my 2018 Tesla Model 3 AWD (non-performance) FSD ready. The premium for 6 months of coverage was only $300 total. This is less than I have paid in the past for much cheaper cars. Granted, there was a $40 reduction due to Covid restricting driving in general. This is in a suburb of Philadelphia with a high level of coverage and $250 deductible. Maybe the insurance companies are starting to price in the safety and security of Tesla vehicles.
Tesla is on route for starting their own insurance company
Nope
This channel will blow up this is amazing content
Thank you! Means a lot
@@OBFYT not without metric units
Many have mentioned this. But the reality is I use metric in all of my videos, but this particular video was aimed at the American demographic so I chose to use the measuring system that they prefer. Even though I use metric myself (and metric is objectively better). So don't worry you won't see me use Imperial units that often.
Det smerter stadig mit hjerte at du bruger US/imperial mål.
Næste gang sæt imperial i parentes under metrisk. 👍
I am more terrified than frightened. Then again, I have misplaced my nuts. Sometimes I hate being a squirrel.
Facts brother, I know what you mean
Thank you so much for the video. Just a small correction it should be kWh instead of Kwh
Glad you liked it. And yeah that was an honest mistake, it won't happen in future videos.
Nobody ever thinks about when it breaks down lol. Good luck finding someone who can fix it for a fair price
lol, so you think that infrastructure behind conventional cars and trucks developed overnight, yeah?
Modern diesels have many moving parts, all of which can fail at any point. Electric engines only have one. If the motor dies, there’s really not much to fix. The only other issue would be wiring, which is a ballache in any vehicle.
@@leopold7562 that is a fair argument. But whose to say they are gonna do it cheap? I am open minded i just don't see it personally
@@drewbot69 Sorry, I misunderstood what you were saying. Of course, you’re right, it won’t be a cheap fix, especially when the governing bodies for electricians get involved and everyone needs to be certified - neatly cutting out the DIY mechanic and justifying the expense with the “qualified personnel” argument.
You’re not factoring in a comparison of Time to Fuel vs Time to Charge (full). That’s the main reason why no one will use these unless you can charge a truck at a faster or equal rate to fueling diesel. The time of everyone sitting around charging is logistically impossible if you know how busy fuel stops are already.
Hub to hub driving, and local deluvery are very compelling usecases. And its also the majority of the usecases. As the economics of the scheme takes hold this is is likely to be the way forward (transforming the shipping industry at large.
All these saving are assuming that the battery pack will last 1 million mile.
Their current 18650 and 21700 batteries already last a million miles as verified by real life usage.
@@Jens.Krabbe yeah, but these packs will forgo a completely different torture under a semi. Extreme temperatures consistently .
I’m all for the Tesla Truck, I am a long haul trucker. A few things and possible corrections to figure in that might be an obstacle. Trucks average about 7 miles per gallon and carry anywhere between 150-200 gallons that means I can get 1000 miles per fill with a cost to fill between $450-550 so the 500 mile calculation would be about $250. I know battery tech will increase but that is a notable difference from your estimate. Also large trucking companies have huge service fleets that get approved for the manufacturers warranty issues providing a huge source of additional income to the transportation company. That will likely scare the some of the larger companies away for a bit. As a trucker I would like to see a 750 mile range so that I can plan for 500-600 miles in between charges. I assume that eventually there will be chargers installed at truck stops where I can park overnight and charge. As a typical stop for fuel will cost me around 20 minutes of time I would assume that it would take over an hour to charge the Tesla Truck
Also forgot lifespan of battery and electric motors compared to diesel engine and transmission.
We change our trucks (semis) to brand new ones every 3 years.
I'm pretty sure the batteries will cope with that.
btw.. Those new truck replacements are staggered so every year we replace a batch
eg: our 2017 trucks have now been replaced with mid year 2020 trucks and next July our 2018 trucks will be replaced with with Mid year 2020 or 2021 vehicles
@@0utcastAussie what will a 3 year old one be worth with a knackered battery and who would buy it don't forget depreciation in electric vehicle running cost calculations.
@@0utcastAussie do you work for a company? The average person isn’t going to be able to replace their trucks every three years. I do think electric trucks are good but not for normal people who actually buy their trucks and want them to last. I do think electric trucks are good except for the fact that they’re going to be unrepairable. Just like you can’t call a mechanic to fix your Tesla if I messes up I bet it’ll be the same for the semis.
@@ivano1978 should be really easy to repair.
@@ivano1978 the redundancy on an electric truck is more than an ice engine. If an electric motor fail you have 3 additional motor and associated electrical systems (individual inverters and batteries). The truck still in good driving conditions but you can't expect the same with an ICE engine breakdown.
Have you taken into account the weight of the diesel fuel within an ICE semi?
Great point. If they are saying there is a narrow weight difference between the Tesla and combustion Semis, with fuel, that becomes even less.
Google: Calculate around 8lb/gallon to be safe as the temperature will affect the weight slightly. Fuel tank capacity varies from truck to truck. 100 - 150 gallons per side is most common for OTR trucks.
Its not that heavy, like 20x less than semi batteries
diesel is around 7lbs per US gallon.
@@leonardoariewibowo1325 Average semi is about 150 gallons of fuel. Diesel weight is 7 pounds per US gallon. That's an additional 1050 pounds in fuel, with the upper range of average making it 2100 pounds. Make of that what you will.
@@xX_Pokeman_Xx
Depends on the semi and the type of freight and routes they normally take. I've driven trucks that had two 150 gallon tanks, but I've also driven trucks that had one 75 gallon tank.
One thing to consider, as the truck drives along the weight of that fuel drops as it consumes that fuel . The electric truck carries around the same weight of battery whether or not it's fully charged or discharged. I'm not sure how much this matters. Mass of the vehicle doesn't affect efficiency that much when you're doing constant speed on an interstate. It certainly does affect efficiency in stop and go traffic. but at constant highway speeds the biggest effect is aerodynamics.
I think the bigger problem with electric trucks would be with long haul open/randome logistics type Trucking where you never know where you're going to pick up your next load and where it's going to be delivered to etc. You would need to have massive charging infrastructure at essentially every random truck stop in the country for that to work. just like those truck stops have diesel fuel currently, And I don't really think that it's necessary anyway. Short haul Regional Trucking probably accounts for 80% of the freight. If you can just replace that with electric powered trucks you would make a significant impact. And many of those trucks do a route where they end up back at a home terminal every night. It would be extremely easy for the trucking company to install chargers at their terminal.
Most non truck drivers really don't have any perception of the scale of trucking and logistics in the country if you spend a little bit at a time out on the road with a truck driver and you would get some idea about what's involved with the logistics.
Cold weather?
Countries without good infrastructure?
Downtime for charging?
The cost of replacing the battery packs?
These are questions that come to mind ..
"Cold weather?
"
Teslas are doing well in the cold so far, but not great. Shouldn't be a huge issue though.
"Countries without good infrastructure?
"
Only focused in the US, Canada, most of Europe, and China. Maybe a few other countries too, but these are where all EV Semis will be sold for at least 10 years.
"Downtime for charging?
"
There are many, many different ways to charge. Overnight, at loading docks, and at dedicated charging stations. Even with current Tesla Super Chargers, a single connection can charge the long range semi in roughly 4.5 hours. You can connect 4 to charge in a little over an hour, which is what the prototypes do. It isn't hard to imagine a dedicated charging station charging trucks in under an hour, which Tesla is working on with third parties.
"The cost of replacing the battery packs?"
If it needs to be replaced, that will be expensive. However, it should last a very long time. Very likely to be rated to last well over 1 million miles.
AdamSomething's tesla video makes a convincing counterargument by similar economic estimations
No it doesnt, that guy litterally just makes a bunch of assumptions on battery technology that are unfounded.
1,300 lb weight can be saved by just having super singles, and so many components
will be striped out like exhaust and fuel tank, big filter etc.
not to mention the massive diesel engine made largely out of an iron casting
@@19valleydan I think he already mentioned that 3000-3500 lb.In addition to that 1300 from tires and 1000lb from drive train exhaust intake filters radiators etc,
So you have 5300+500 Fuel,total 6300lb weight available to put batteries,motors and inverters,with current battery energy density they can easily built 300 mile rage semi,
Without compromising on payload capacity, once hey have 4280 cells available they can start producing 500 mile range,may be in 2023 you will see long range semis on road.
@@19valleydan Bullshit trucks in different engines/transmissions cabs, chassis, basically thousands of combinations possible, plus bed/luxury options fridges, microwave, bed..... the chassis is the strongest/heaviest part of diesel trucks, look at this volvo ruclips.net/video/7Qfy4MqcfUk/видео.html
That's excessively optimistic calculation of weight savings. Honestly, even that much is not worth the additional costs and additional risks that come from super-singles. The tires are twice as expensive, and you can't limp into a repair shop if you lose one tire, meaning roadside repair costs, which are even more expensive.
Cant wait for 2020 when this thing will come out!
you forgot to remove the weighrt of fuel, tanks, and huge lead acid starting batteries. there's another thousand pounds of battery you can now add.
Remember an ev needs the same 12v battery in the semi as the model 3. All the 12v does is fire up the 400v interconnecters, you could prob do this with an AA battery.
@@simonhenry7867 24 V
@@lvthud not sure what your saying?
@@simonhenry7867 Semi's run on 24 volt systems, not 12 volt
@@lvthud sorry should have said "Tesla semi". If tesla are lazy the y will use a 12v system. If they are smart somthing unique.
Shipping companies could save even more if they install solar or wind at the charge sites so they dont pay for electricity
Solar or wind takes up valuable space and are not feasible unless there are many of them for such operations.
Repairing and maintaining of such could get you in negative. Not to mention frequent recharge and discharge of battery would reduce lifespan of system
@@GameControlYT wind yes but solar taking up space? You can put them on roofs so i dont see them taking much space
@@lordmilchreis1885 roof top solar panels could barely run a House forget about running a charging station. You need a large area to have enough solar panels to produce enough energy to charge cars
@@GameControlYT alright thx for the info
I feel like this channel came out of nowhere! Love it, great content!
Your arguements are quite compelling. I believe one needs to factor in the economical and ecological waste produced in the production of the electricity needed to put these behemoths on the road. Something noone is talking about.
There's a reason why nobody is talking about that. You need electricity to make the fuel. You also need electricity to extract the oil.
I think the tesla semi has merit, that being said I haul speclized freight , a good chunk of my driving is on two lane back roads do to the places I deliver. For what we haul I can see it will take quite a few more years to make the tesla semi a viable option for all transport needs.
The thing is, relatively low speed roads, with lots of acceleration and braking are where electric vehicles outperform ICE by the most, so they're maybe closer than it seems.
It doesn't need to be a viable option for all transport needs to be a viable product.
I love how u dig deep into topics and find the facts I’ve been binge watching your channel from your first video and all of them are amazing
What about time taken to travel 500miles, with less strain there would be a significant savings on time which could be huge in terms of cost
I have to say alot of people didn't pay or highlight this if even close to prediction we should definitely expect atleast a 10-20% reduction in time travel due to acceleration alone, add steep hill and who knows. I have a 600km drive I usually take every month. In inclines most truck cannot reach their normal highway speeds of 80km/h they do 50-60km its so painful to be stuck behind one in a bend where you cannot overtake
You mean more torque? Lol
Diesel trucks can get away with less torque because they have more gears. An electric vehicle would have a maximum of 3 gears I believe unless you use CVT, and CVTs are awful at hauling
@@potatoes5829 Which is why a fullz loaded tesla semi accelerates faster than a fully loaded diesel model.
@@anonym3017 acceleration might be better in an electric semi but it also costs more, and that is all that matters to the shipping companies.
Actually regenerative braking is such a huge advantage that hydrogen doesn’t have that alone would crush it
No, no. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles *must* have battery packs. They won't work without them. The fuel cell generates electricity at a constant rate, but the need for power to motors is variable. That's where the battery pack comes in. The fuel cell charges the pack, the pack dispenses electricity at need. So hydrogen fuel cell vehicles *can* have regenerative braking.
Hydrogen's downfall comes from its price, from its energy inefficiency, from metal embrittlement, from the danger of horrific explosions, and from the enormous cost of infrastructure build out (by some estimates, a trillion dollars or more if it's to become used widely). The economics don't work.
@@Urgelt that's the point if you need batteries just get the high density batteries not a hybrid system with twice the complexity
@@nunobartolo2908 Sure. I'm just letting you know that it's not true that fuel cell vehicles can't do regenerative braking. Need to criticize based on actual faults, not imaginary ones.
Savings on brake wear and safety improvement alone is a game changer on mountain roads.
Recharging batteries is just a big plus.
It's not like ice don't have engine breaking or anything.
You forgot that you also need to pay the driver and his time to charge the truck up. This could cost very much time and money because the big battery!
This channel is going to blow up. Can't believe you only have 4k subscribers!
Well, the number of Musk groupies is limited....
Each fuel tank carries 120-150 gallons of fuel, tank is approx 1000 lbs each
+1t for engine and gearbox
Curb weight is "the weight as it would sit at the curb". That means the 1000 pounds per fuel tank is already accounted for in the 18k pound weight of a diesel truck. Specifically an 18k pound truck only weighs 18k pounds with full tanks.
120 gallons at 7-9 miles per gallon. Means range of 840-1080 miles , alot longer range than 500. And as others have said charge time adds time your not being paid, along with more fuel stops, means even more non laid time. Trucking needs to pay by the hour for safety and honesty. I know guys that sit at lots for a day not getting paid. Plus around here a new tractor trailer driver if paid by miles can make more at Amazon warehouse and be home every night. There are exceptions but those are few.
@@JMGeranimo You gain nothing from range that you can't use physically or legaly.
@@AlexanderNassian I don't understand, in the U.S we can work 14 hour days back to back. Then if you have to idle over night that's fuel as well. They are getting close though.
2:00 - 300 watt-hours per kg sounds pretty impressive for battery tech. You're gonna need to get it to about 10x that much, before you can have any reasonable chance of displacing regular diesel-powered semi-trucks.
Hey, love the video and I appreciate what you are trying to do but you need to be more fair with your comparison.
Let me say that I love Tesla and when that truck comes out I’m going to buy myself one but I don’t think is fair that when it comes to price of the unit you compare it with the highest class of diesel truck out there which is Volvo, the average trucker can’t afford a Volvo, they usually buy a Freightliner or a Peterbilt which costs around $80,000, that difference is huge for the normal truck driver and we are talking about the ones with a sleeper cabin, the current Tesla is for Day Cab which means only local trips, you can get a Day Cab Diesel truck for $15,000 and throw some $25K-$30K and get it running nicely, I imagine if Tesla ever builds one with a sleeper included those will cost much more than $180,000.... that is something that you conveniently avoid to mention in your video and I don’t think is fair, if you are going to make a honest comparison the first thing to do should be to leave your love for Tesla on the side and be objective on the subject.
This videos are very deceiving because for truck drivers numbers mean everything, it’s all about the profit that is left to feed the family and keep the business running so when you make the comparison with a Volvo is like saying someone buying a Ferrari and the average Joe don’t buy Ferrari, they buy Toyota or Honda, you get what I’m saying here? Now if you are talking about truck drivers that have been in the industry for a very long time and have accumulated wealth and now at this later age with all the knowledge they possess they want to treat themselves to a fancy truck such as Volvo or Tesla then yeah but the new truck driver that just started or has very few years in the industry cannot afford that price without risking going bankrupt.
I still believe Tesla will eventually take over the trucking industry because our knowledge on battery manufacturing keeps growing and they will only get better and better and lighter and lighter so eventually the curb will definitely favor Tesla. Is just a matter of time now.
I don't think anybody has a problem with electric trucks, not Bill Gates or anyone else, what they are just stating is that, with current tech it is not commercially possible. It will be in the future, probably, but not right now, and you don't see a ton of Tesla Semis going around
The truck is for fleet not independents or selve owned fleet drivers.
@@sparksmcgee6641 Not true, anyone can put down a deposit for the semi truck, I personally know three people that did and one youtuber I know he did as well. All you need is a $5000 right away payment and then a wire transfer of $15000 to reserve one. At Tesla website you will see that any person can buy it.
www.tesla.com/semi
@@fgrodriguezqac i didnt say you couldn't buy one. The product is targeting fleets routes. Owners will have charging stations on their own sites. They will get the most benifit and pay the most for the trucks. You can buy one and make a lampstand out of it if you want.
You should also factor in the weight savings of the transmission, drive train, differentials, radiators, exhaust, brakes and the actual weight of the diesel fuel.
Your still going to have radiators and brakes and he applied 10% to the whole truck.
You're gonna need almost 30,000 lbs of batteries to give you the same available energy. Now, how much do you think the power train on a semi weighs?
@@AaronCMounts No, you don't understand - you don't need the same amount of energy for the simple reason that the energy efficiency of an electric motor is over 95% vs 30-40% of a large diesel engine.
Also, the engine, transmission, differentials, etc. of a semi-truck is easily over 5000 lbs, plus another 2000 lbs of fuel (300 gallons).
@@cav4290 #1. You don't have 300 gallons of fuel capacity in a semi, you have on average about half that.
#2. The weight of the drive train in a semi is closer to 3500 lbs.
#3. The efficiency of EV motors is actually about 85%, not 95%.
So even accounting for the difference in efficiency of EV motors, you're still gonna need about 13,000 lbs of battery storage, which is 9,000 more than the entire drive train + fuel weight of a diesel semi. And that doesn't include all the frame, bracing, conduits, motors, circuitry, cooling, etc...an EV power system requires. Once that's added in, you're looking at a net weight difference of almost 10,000lbs. That directly translates to 10,000lbs less payload, which is a dead proposal to the trucking industry.
@@AaronCMounts The weight of the engine alone is roughly 3000 lbs - so no way 3500 for the entire drive train.
EV motors are typically between 75% and 95% efficient, there are many variables, but expect the Tesla semi to be in the upper bound of the range.
I think the difference will be less than 9000, you are mentioning frame, cooling, etc., if you really believe that, then you have no idea how much cooling a semi truck engines, not only coolant, but also all the oil, etc. The braking system and exhaust is another huge advantage for the EV, less weight, and much less maintenance. The trucking business is not only about weight, but also time.
I think the biggest problem with electric vehicles overall is the fact that the batteries degrade with each recharging cykel, meaning that they would have to be replaced quite often. Batteries also cost a lot of money especially for this size which means that the maintenance might actually be higher than regular trucks. Great video tho!
With respect this point is outdated. Batteries are lasting longer wolith each generation and there have been several since this was true. Now cars will last for half a million miles and a million is possible. Much of this improvement has come from proper temperature control but some is from changing battery chemistry and structure.
@@garethrobinson2275 oh ok
Now cut that range in half for anyone that lives in Canada for half the year.
how far do you people have to ship your maple syrup and hockey sticks anyway?
Nope since they do generate heat and its used to raise the operating temp. Even with that range drop its stil a better option.
You wouldn't cut it in half. Maybe 10%. When heating the cabin in a car, the drop is very noticeable in a 60-100kWh pack. Not so much in a 1000kWh pack.
@@NicholasTruehl i think motors that large would produce a great deal of waste heat, which could more than heat the cabin. the batteries would be self heating, considering the density. the first tesla roadster, when driven very hard, would have battery overheating problems. the petrol heads are not to be convinced easily
Elon has already said in an interview the truck would probably only be around 1k or so heavier than regular trucks
Look at this video, a tesla will never do this ruclips.net/video/7Qfy4MqcfUk/видео.html
@@alanmay7929 how do you know?
He also said the Las Vegas Convention Center Tunnel Loop would have driverless pods with eleven passengers each. How did that turn out?
This is a great summary! But one thing I think no one accounts for when assessing the cost of Gas vs Electric is that Gas prices should fall as more people go to electric
You totally missed the downtime of the truck. You can not charge up in the time you fill up a normal truck. Down time is extremely expensive for both driver and company.
It can work out better by recharging while the trailer is being loaded.
No you missed the big picture, you cannot drive forever. You must eat, piss, stand up and everything else. If drive for 500 miles, you think you're going to gas up in five minutes and be out of there, ain't gonna happen. You're going to be there way longer than it takes to charge up.
@@cedykeman1 lol, not at all.
Wipe out the complex gearing and it becomes vastly cheaper and lighter. No oil changes.
The only way an electric drive works for any vehicle is through gear reduction. The drives also need cooling too.
@@TheBeingReal Yes but that is simple gearing, not complex gearing like he was talking about
@@specialopsdave It is not ‘simple’ gearing though...these all use very high-speed electric motors to keep the motor small. Gears and bearings still need lubrication that needs maintenance. Motors need cooling too (liquid) due to the speeds. You really do not lighten the drive train either, you still have to support the loads and allow for a suspension. Even electric drive mining trucks have an axle housing to support the vehicle.
For any vehicle towing/hauling you need vehicle mass for proper ground contact forces and braking/handling.
No doubt electrification of vehicles will keep developing and can make a lot of sense for urban trucks that drive predictable routes daily. There are a lot of trade-offs still between electric and gas/diesel drives.
@@TheBeingReal it doesn't shift, it's literally two cogs with different sizes that make up the gear ratio, compared to the many cogs, shift collars and transmission bands found in ICE gearboxes. Therefore, relatively speaking, it is in fact simple gearing.
@@specialopsdave I would be surprised if it was only a single stage reduction. They are not small packages. Usually planetary to keep compact. With AC motor technology, no gear shifting is needed. Full motor torque at all rpm.
Just found this channel and already subscribed, I really like the content! :) But for the measurements I would love to have everything transalted to the metric system so the non americans an also relate!! Please add this in the future, would be great!
They just need more batteries 1000 miles per charge. And charging stations on truck stops
Charging stations are far cheaper than huge fuel tanks in the ground.A leaking tank ...huge problem.
@@rudbeckia885 the problem with charging stations is the same problem that semis have with parking already, it will take massive infrastructure to charge semis and that will take space. And lots of it.
Zero need to have 1000 range. A current truck cant run that long without stopping even with team drivers and 500mile charge takes less time than a bathroom stop.
They are still not the "reality" until they are commercially implemented, for now you are simply hypothesizing.
At least Tesla trucks are real, functional, self propelled vehicles that are in a test phase and are hauling actual loads, instead of a mock-up fake truck without a drivetrain just rolling down a hill for a scam promotion video. That justifies the hypothesizing just a little bit in my opinion. Also, Tesla's track record shows, that they deliver late, but they deliver eventually. Except Model Y, that was surprisingly early. 😁
@@MrJSpicoli Correct, they are working on that. Limited FSD beta is out. Still takes a few years if you ask me. Tesla might get to level 3 autonomy at the end of 2021 though, emphasis on might.
when you 3 of the top 5 largest economies in the world California, China, and India all currently implementing legislation that will require all vehicles to be non-ICE within the near future, it is not hypothetical at all. This is happening. Fossil fuel powered vehicles will be relegated to the used car lots within 5-10 years.
Lets not forget that the "new batteries that Tesla is producing now" as stated in the video have not yet been produced as they have not yet even built the production line for them yet. All they have is a few prototypes for cell testing and packaging calculations.
You're kidding, right? Load capacity sucks when compared to diesel.
When all the drivers, mechanics, and every other human have been replaced with self drive self build and self everything, who will have any money to spend to make the need for movement of goods anymore, it’s called sealing your own down fall. 👍
Absolute rubbish and/or fear mongering. You have all seen that pic on YT where the street was full of horses and carts and 5-10 years later there was only one horse drawn vehicle. Autonomous driving will revolutionise transport economics and dispense with most drivers. But it will take a while as the legal and regulatory process will be long. All that surplus labour will be re-deployed by the market into more profitable (and nicer) jobs and industries.
YOU FORGOT THE WEIGHT OF A FEW HUNDRED GALLONS OF DIESEL.
nomad1944k average semi holds 200 gallons of diesel or 1400 pounds. So the average will be 700 pounds for a full tank assuming a linear burn rate. Good catch.
Google: Calculate around 8lb/gallon to be safe as the temperature will affect the weight slightly. Fuel tank capacity varies from truck to truck. 100 - 150 gallons per side is most common for OTR trucks.
I believe the weight of a semi is very important. When hauling across open spaces such as the middle United States, the winds out here tip the trucks over. Also mountain driving with black ice snow and various temperatures will have a factor to it also. Great video!
Great analysis. In the Netherlands the technical university of Eindhoven also did a similar analysis with similar results. Ps. Get the units right: kWh instead of Kwh. ;)
The law of physics will never be broken. I’m not sure what you’re talking about
That's why they're called Laws.
@@beachcomber2008 💯
@Norm T I think it would be more accurate to say that at that time *_the laws came into existence._* They may be different, according to chance, each time a universe springs into existence. It's certainly something we don't know, and may be something we can _never_ know.
FTL motion may set us the same problem.
The forward arrow of time has something to do with these problems, I would suggest. This stuff is interesting, but hurts my brain. Other stuff hurts it too.
I think he means we always think we are up against a limit, and then we keep breaking those limits, year after year, like Moore's Law.
lets ignore upfront cost, recharge time, battery replacement cost, range while focusing on cost per mile. I see a few flaws....
The only thing I'm not sure they adequately took into consideration is charging time. Takes minutes to fill a tank with fuel. Many hours to charge.
Lol you've never filled a semi
@@patricke3848 How long does it take to fill a semi? I would think it is much faster than recharging an electric truck will be.
@@patricke3848 OK fine, many minutes. But not many hours.
@@kevinrussell7446 True, I agree.
I’ll believe it when it actually happens. Still waiting for full-self-driving, using your Tesla as a FSD taxi and watching it make me money everyday while doubling in value, solar roof tiles that make any sense from a $ standpoint, “new” tunnel technology, etc etc etc.
There is not enough lithium in the world to battery power every vehicle on earth or every new vehicle on earth. It's a temporary Bandaid.
Hello 'OBF', the real big saving comes when you look at 'fuel' cost in Europe, MASSIVE savings. Regards, RichardA.
How will those eu weight limits work out 😂😂😂😂😂
@@angrybrit7331 not very good for ev