Thursday (July 11th) May Be The Hottest Of The Year

RECORD HEAT
Bakersfield has reached two days in a row of record highs; Sunday & Monday at 114. That tied the previous record of 114 set in 1905 for both days. There was also a record high minimum of 82. 5 of the past 6 days have had highs of at least 109 and lows in the 80s. The bad news is that it is going to continue for the rest of this week. The last time we saw temperatures like this you have to go back to 1933 with highs ranging from 110 degrees for several days in a row. In 1905, from July 7th - 11th have held the record high for those days sitting at 113 to 114 degrees. So, our current heat is unusual and extreme. There is a chance this Thursday and Friday the record highs will be met again. We are forecast at 113 and 111. The records on those days are at 111 and 113 respectively. It is possible. Combined that with heat stress levels. A total of 101 heat stress units (HSUs) accumulated yesterday. So far, over 300 HSUs have occurred with Heat Wave #3, more than all but two year's worth of heat in the past 15 years.
CATEGORY 5 - HEAT WAVE #3
Today we will mark another day over 109 (or at least at it). That should take us to a Category 5 level heatwave. Last time that happened was in 1933. Very few people are living today that might remember it. This extremely rare period of time we are all living through has only taken place three other times in history (since 1892). We want to impress upon everyone that this is not just another hot day in Kern County, not a routine situation in which we should drink more water. Heat Wave #3 of 2024 will carry a legacy, one that will be learned incrementally as the damage done slowly becomes apparent. Aside from the predictable physiological impact on people and animals, this rare heat (even for central California) is like a slow motion earthquake. It's waves are now touching people's pocketbooks, affecting your car, negatively affecting businesses, the electric grid, livestock, milk cows, agricultural in general, your backyard garden. It affects your water bill or perhaps kills your lawn. It also produces a negative psychological effect with increased depression for a variety of reasons- from money you don't have to pay for cooling or just the concept that you are trapped in this oven. There are no upsides to a heat wave of this magnitude. Like compound interest, the damaging specter of Heat Wave #3 multiplies a bit more every day that it punishes the land.
THE EVER-PRESENT FIRE/SMOKE THREAT
In addition to the suffocating heat, fires ignited by the extreme conditions could pop up almost anywhere at any time. The Lake Fire in Santa Barbara county has burned over 20,000 acres since last Friday. The Vista Fire in the San Gabriel mountains southwest of Palmdale is just now starting. Smoke from these fires will be expanding across the state in the days ahead. At this time, the smoke appears to be holding in layers aloft. But ground level smoke will be possible with these or any new fires this week. It is a delicate time. After some moderation tomorrow, high pressure will build back in from the east and interact with a small low pressure circulation along the coast. This will bring downslope warming to the South Valley. That's right, a warming trend for Thursday. I'm calling it a "hyper-extreme surge", because our temperatures are already extreme.
GOOD NEWS
After all this, is there anything to look forward to? The answer is yes. Models are showing a slight cooling trend by this upcoming weekend. Extreme heat stress each day will improve to intense heat stress for Saturday and Sunday, then only moderate heat stress next Monday. It will be at that point that I lower the Action Days declaration (designed to get people to change their routine due to the heat). Early next week Kern County will return to the normal hot weather for mid-July. Then, but the end of next week I believe we could possibly see the end of Heat Wave #3. A weak trough of low pressure will set up along the west coast, potentially enough to drive our readings back down into the 90s. It should also be noted that this is most likely the hottest part of our summer. It is near the climatological zenith of the year and any subsequent heat waves will be less deadly than the one we are in right now.
Morning Forecaster Aaron Perlman