Wright’s Law equals bankruptcy for over half of legacy auto worldwide
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 11 окт 2024
- Wright’s Law equals bankruptcy for over half of legacy auto worldwide
👇👇 The Electric Viking store/merchandise 👇👇
shop.theelectr...
Size guide and other help for the store 👇
theelectricvik...
🔔 Subscribe and hit the notification bell! ► www.youtube.co...
Join me on Patreon ► / theelectricviking
Join as a member in The Electric Viking RUclips►
/ @electricviking
Members-only videos (see videos before anyone else)►
• Members-only videos
👇👇 Please donate here for Shanna (Viking's wife) if you can 👇👇
gofund.me/ef66...
See what happened to Shanna:
• Stage 4 can go to hell...
Get a 10% discount on tickets to Fully Charged Live in 2023 (and meet me in person). 10% discount code for London and San Diego will be released closer to the event dates.
Buy ticket from here: tickets.lup.co...
The Electric Viking on other platforms:
Rumble ► rumble.com/c/T...
Facebook page ► / theelectricvikingfb
Facebook group ► / theevfbgroup
Twitter ► / theevking
Instagram ► / theelectricvking
Pinterest ► / theelectricviking
Telegram ► t.me/theelectr...
TikTok ► / theelectricviking
My Stake referral link ► tinyurl.com/he...
👇 See more about me 👇
• You've been asking; he...
👇 My Bali trip 👇
• I went to Indonesia an...
👇 Video about My Skateboard 👇
• EASIEST & cheapest way...
👇 Subscribe to my kids channel 👇
tinyurl.com/su...
See more videos:
VW say they can make a profit selling a $22,000 EV in America & Europe
• VW say they can make a...
What electric vehicle incentives are available in every Aussie State?
• What electric vehicle ...
Elon Musk praises Ford - says its electric car strategy is smart
• Elon Musk praises Ford...
These 2 companies have scary power over who is on Tesla's board
• These 2 companies have...
Tesla Model Y's mysterious efficiency advantage VS BYD's Atto 3
• Tesla Model Y's myster...
Toyota BZ4X & Subaru Solterra get BIG changes after false claims
• Toyota BZ4X & Subaru S...
Toyota NEW manual transmission with pretend clutch for hybrids & EV's
• Toyota NEW manual tran...
Mercedes change EV strategy after being blasted by German media
• Mercedes change EV str...
Rivian R1T repair estimated to cost $1600 ends up costing $42,000
• Rivian R1T repair esti...
NIO says it will disrupt VW in Europe with cheap EV's & have 3 brands
• NIO says it will disru...
EV Sales In Germany up 28% In March while PHEV's collapse by 45%
• EV Sales In Germany up...
MG recalls Aussie EV's sold in 2022; offers discount on new ones
• MG recalls Aussie EV's...
Electric cars win every Euro NCAP safety award - ICE cars get zero
• Electric cars win ever...
Tesla sells 75,842 electric cars made in China in April; increases prices
• Tesla sells 75,842 ele...
The largest wind project in the Western Hemisphere starts construction
• The largest wind proje...
Hyundai's electric Pony Coupe has ignited my desire for an EV sports car
• Hyundai's electric Pon...
Hyundai Electric Car sales go CRAZY with only 3 models
• Hyundai Electric Car s...
Hyundai's Ioniq 5N will use Hyundai's NEW higher energy density battery
• Hyundai's Ioniq 5N wil...
Hyundai says it will be 90% EV + TOP 3 global automaker in 2030
• Hyundai says it will b...
The Hyundai Ioniq 10 Duke is ridiculously awesome
• The Hyundai Ioniq 10 D...
Electric cars win every Euro NCAP safety award - ICE cars get zero
• Electric cars win ever...
NIO says it will disrupt VW in Europe with cheap EV's & have 3 brands
• NIO says it will disru...
Ford losses from EV division will explode to over $4 Billion in 2023
• Ford losses from EV di...
California plans to make bidirectional charging mandatory on all EV's
• California plans to ma...
#law #bankruptcy #legacy #evs #evnews
This channel may use some copyrighted materials without specific authorization of the owner; but content used here falls under the “Fair Use” Copyright Disclaimer under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976.
Allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use.
Contact us for any copyright issues. If you want a credit of any footage we are using, please let us know.
Website: theelectricvik...
Email: contact@theelectricviking.com
Prayers said for Shanna, Sam, and the young men. Stay positive, good things can happen. Blessings sent. :)
After a career in IT, the auto industry has to learn what's been fundamental in IT for years - 'The only constant is change'.
They change models every year. Notice Tesla doesn't. Some internal efficiency changes, maybe battery chemistry change, but not a whole new model. That would be slow and costly to do.
@@donaldkasper8346 Luckily they're selling into a market that cheers when they get a couple fancy lights, and 5 hp more. Whoopee. They can put new metal on it every three years and people will go mental for only 5000 more. Welcome to OEM
@@joebachmeier6747 Then they run into people like my family that literally state they want "A to B" transportation, and don't care much what else it does or looks like.
Okay airconditioning, it has to have airconditioning.
Ostrich one day feather duster the next. The new business model is to eliminate the squeeze between profit leaches aka dealerships.
Glad to hear it is doing good for your wife.
This is spot on and I think you should have more sternly mentioned that the legacy automotive companies may actually never catch up because when a Tesla is $25,000 US and those companies have not even created scale yet and they’re still losing money on their lines everyone will buy a Tesla, and there will be no room or no one left to buy a Ford or Chevy
Tesla and BYD and other Chinese evs, but ya.
When you are at the bottom the only way is up! Really good episode. Love to hear your commentary. Will be very interesting to see how this all play out!
The ceo in the west only usually stay in that job for 5 years! They're not thinking of the future,just themselve & their bonuses 🥴 such a mistake 😵
Absolute respect to you and your family
Wrights law is hugely amplified by having 1 model of car.
Having 10 models greatly reduces it.
It is more that it applies to each model individually.
Law of supply and demand trumps Wright's law. Liability per unit is a thing also
That’s why Tesla only really have two
@@markthomasson5077 If you listen to the Media Tesla are stuffed because they really only have two cars and "the competition is coming". The reality is Tesla have industry winning margins because they only have two cars and the competition is shooting themselves in the foot with their 15 plus models. GM for example was planning to have 20 different electric vehicles by the end of 2023! How the hell would you ramp 20 different vehicles at once to profitability? We all here know the answer to that.
it is much harder to sell 2 million car at 45k than 1 million car at 45k. tesla just realized the basic low of economic. And BYD is prety much selling cars at 11k. So I dont know why people keep saying tesla is so incredible at making their car cheaper. Tesla have high margin because they are selling their car at premium price. Every single car im china is cheaper than tesla. Arguably most US cars are also cheaper than tesla.
Great video Sam! I’m praying for your wife. Hoping for the best for you and your family.
Great video, from a viking to another 🇳🇴
What seem to not get much attention is that ICE car production will get reverse economics of scale. Less produced cars will give you more expences per car produced, and this will accelerate the downfall of legacy auto IMO.
PS. Best wishes for your wife ❤️🌹
Underestimated point.
Unaccounted for by everyone.
Fingers Crossed hope things get better for everyone.
Thanks!
Welcome!
I think Tony Seba is really Marty McFly… anyone check if he’s got a copy of the sports almanac from the future?
It must be terrifying for these legacy car makers. Your phone comparison is very understandable. I worked at Nortel when BlackBerry and Nokia where at their height of recognition. Cisco was the highest market cap company. Things changed fast
Not terrifying at all. The lithium does not exist to make an EV world.
Just bought my second Neta V. Wife loved the first one so much I gave her mine and ordered another. The price is too good.
Want a parallel to what’s happening in the auto industry now? Back in the late 40’s and early 50’s the railroads started to adopt the diesel locomotive. General Motors EMD division developed its version of the Tesla (diesel electric F9 locomotive) and almost by itself disrupted the entire “steam engine” industry. All all steam engine manufacturers went belly up and hundreds of thousands of jobs related to the running and maintenance of steam engines evaporated.
Cancer treatment of America, my sister been cancer free 8 years she had to many to count in her liver, plus uterus and 2 other cancer all gone , I referred another person in stage 4 , they to are cancer free
So much info. Complete overload.
😮😊
In Q1 2023 Ford lost $70k per car. 10k cars produced a 700 million loss…
And that is after hugely massaging the numbers…😂
Great videos! I want to see our electric Viking staring in the assassin's creed Valhalla movie to come! Take my money!
At 10:18 in this video I am pretty sure that’s London Bridge and I was at a training course there three years ago in August and I thought I was going to choke to death. There was this thick metallic taste in the air I couldn’t believe it! I used to live in London, moved to the sticks 30 odd years ago. It was quite a shock.
Moved to the sticks from the city too… best decision ever. Not much todo and no wine bars for many miles but the silence is bliss… used to live on busy road with cars rumbling by all day and police/heli through the night. Swap that for getting stuck behind slow tractor 🚜 and longer commute to work.
Love the show. BTW quadrupling is a 300% increase, not 400%.
I think the cost of sodium batteries is going to come down quite a bit in the future. They don’t even use copper, they are quite happy with aluminium conductors.
I’ve seen articles saying that in the future with mass production they will be half the cost of lithium batteries.
You have a car with a battery and 4 wheel drive motors. Literally, the cost should be 1/4 a gasoline car. What is the price comparison? Vastly more expensive. Double. Efficiency does not bring down raw material costs for batteries. You want a cheaper battery, you have to use lead and manganese.
@@donaldkasper8346
Certain EVs are reaching price parity with some ICE vehicles this year, and are expected to be cheaper than most ICE vehicles by 2025. Lead acid batteries are not as cheap as you think. I have stopped purchasing lead acid batteries for off-grid power systems due to the fact it is now cheaper to buy lithium iron batteries. Lithium iron batteries last a lot longer, and do not require maintenance, further lowering overall cost. Lead batteries are too heavy to be practical for EVs, generally have a short cycle life, and are extremely toxic.
@@GoCoyote There are no cobalt and nickel and rare earth reserves that exist as known exploitable sources to build an EV world, so I predict EVs will go to $250k over the next decade.
@@GoCoyote If you want high density fuel, low emissions, low risk, go to propane.
@@donaldkasper8346
Where are you getting your info? The majority of cobalt production is a byproduct of nickel and copper mining, plus battery manufacturers are using less and less cobalt in new batteries, and there are more batteries being produced without cobalt at all. Every battery containing cobalt that is recycled contains enough cobalt for 5 new batteries.
The most highly concentrated rare earth mineral deposit in the world was just discovered in the US in Montana, and another very large deposit was just discovered in Sweden.
The price of EVs is falling, not increasing. I purchase lithium batteries for power systems, and the price just continues to drop like a rock going over a cliff.
Excellent video.
Serpentza has a video about major Chinese EV makers faking sales and parking the excess cars in fields. (The photos show an awful lot of cars in grassy fields.)
Wright’s law may apply to cost but consumer price still follows what ever the market will bear.
“Technological advances”; not “advancements”.
Your negative comment assumes a monopoly. The automotive industry is far from that.
unless there's a price war. Or market manipulation--note that EVs are usually priced artificially high to keep ICE cars competitive. Or a sale. Or collusion. And it depends on the product--do you want to sell few cars at high price, or many many cars that are cheaper and easier to produce at a lower price but a higher margin per car?
@@josephvcenzoprano7528 Competition only works when buyers are willing to accept a different brand and those brands have comparable products. Example, iPhones could be and should be cheap by now but Apple doesn’t have to drop the price as long as buyers are willing to pay that much.
@@frankcoffey It's a bad example. iPhones are not a monopoly, it's just a smartphone brand like every other brand else. You can buy cheap competitor phone for a fraction of the price of an iPhone. The same principle works in the car market. You can buy a cheap Dacia or an expensive Bentley. There is a lot of competition and choices for the consumer.
Just like solar panels, the more are made the cheaper they are to produce. That is what Tesla knows and other can not understand with their boutique product lines.
@8:22 quadrupling is a 300% increase - not 400%
The most dramatic examples of this law can be found in processes with higher IP content, such as pharmaceuticals and software.
I picked up on wrights law and this subject about 6 weeks ago. There are about 3 doublings in overall production by 2030 but not all of the components of an EV can have wrights law applied. For example the wheels, tires, glass, steel etc are all pretty well at maximum scale already. However battery costs will come down by at least 50% because the lithium price will drop due to a greater use of sodium batteries and grid scale flow batteries. Of course the mega castings and other new efficiencies will make production much less labor intensive plus value for money will increase significantly like FSD and a longer range. I see a Tesla Model Y that costs $72k in Australia right now selling for $50k with FSD and a 350 mile range by 2030 and Tesla will make $10k per vehicle net profit on each vehicle. In addition to that, there will be, as is now, no servicing costs plus lower insurance, and will only cost $10 per week to charge instead of $70 per week for gasoline.
This unruly amount of wild speculation is awesome to behold
@@coolranch1660 well I guess after 40 years in business I have a right to an opinion about business.
@@markumbers5362 there will be servicing costs ie tyres and brakes. plus the electricity will not be free. Even if you have a home box you will have to pay, plus here in the uk i predict taxes on electric cars increasing, to match those on ICE cars
@@kevinnicholson7722 sure but no scheduled servicing costs so as hertz have stated servicing costs are about 50% lower than an ICE car. As far as electricity prices are concerned here where I live in Australia super charging is 66c per kw, peak grid 28 c, off peak grid, 18c and the amortised cost of home roof top solar 5 cents. If you work from home and can dribble solar energy in between 10 and 3 pm ,a year of driving of say 20,000 klms could cost $140 as apposed to $2800 for an ICE equivalent. Multiply that by a 10 year car life and the saving is about $26,000 . Service costs are about $35 per week on average so saving half of that over 10 years saves another $8800. That's a $36k possible saving but as most people charge overnight using an off-peak rate at 18 cents realistically there is a $28k lifetime saving on fuel and servicing. Who is going to buy an ICE car when the upfront cost reaches parity.
There will be certainly a tax on charging like there's a tax on fuel. In Europe around 60% of the price of fuel is tax. So expect to pay 150% more for the electricity that you use for charging your car.
Agree with you 😊
You have no idea how much trouble people have understanding this concept. I've been called a "dirty liar" (to put it in a nice way) trying to explain this concept to people.
All my prayers to your family🙏🏽
03:09 -- It's not the managers, it's the union. Efficiency spells less hours, less overtime, less jobs and less workers.
BS. The unions do not make managerial decisions in the legacy auto industry. If you have a decision to make between efficiency or being obsolete, the unions will bite the bullet, and this is the situation for the legacy auto industry. Or at least it was five years ago. They've sat on their asses and tried to delay the inevitable, and now they will pay the price for their ignorance and bumbling.
China's quadruping of exports (4x) represents a 300% INCREASE, not a 400% increase. A 400% increase would result in a fivefold or 5x number of exports.
Content in this video so true. I remember somewhere in the early 2000 decennium that it was pronounced that all cars would be electrified by 2022. And see, there was Tesla. Years later still Tesla. And now we arrived in 2023 still Tesla. Tesla with the Chinese. Who would have thought that back in let's say 2005? All major car companies around the world layed back and thought that 2022 is still so so far away. Well those big players are now missing the boat. Arrogance? Probable!
Brilliant!
Great video
So sensible
Seriously that was a great job. Very incisive and important information. How do you wake everybody up? They’re all driving around highly depreciable non-productive assets that they don’t need.
Nice presentation.
Forgetting about brands I've been talking about this inflection point for a while. And EVs don't necessarily have to cost less they just have to be close enough that a consumer recognises they'll be better off over time. Throughout history people have predicted that things will fail and the stats quo will remain - the automobile will never replace the horse, telephones are too problematic to ever catch on, electric lightbulb will never work, who wants to hear actors talk? the list just goes on an on.
Another reason costs have been going up so much in the us is the lack of a featureless trim and the elimination of small conservative sized commuter cars.
@11:50 Sam, don't you have that backwards? Legacy Auto is saying it cost double to build EVs -- right?
And again at 16:12 -- should be 'lobbying against EVs' ...
This guy is INCREDIBLE !!!!!!!!
For Tesla it's 28%!!!!!! So ...in just 2 more doublings Teslas will be dirt-cheap to produce!
Excellent
I just saw this in CarNewsChina.
It’s for sodium cells not the whole battery pack.
CATL first-generation sodium-ion cells cost about 77 USD per kWh, and the second generation with volume production can drop to 40 USD per kWh.
Where I live a single high output 18650 cell is still $30 retail. I have a 10S3P pack that cost equivalent to $1200/Kwh. Five years from now we might see sodium batteries in applications other than high end vehicles and stationary storage.
Not today
Some people say import duties can help protect industries that have difficulty competing with foreign manufactured products. Sometimes car manufacturers rebadge imported cars to pretend they manufactured them and supply spare parts to help keep them running to make continuing income from vehicles. Sodium ion batteries will likely increase range of vehicles by 400 percent. Money will be made in battery and engine manufacturing for electric vehicles.
Crazy of the Chinese to give them 6 months. 10 days would have been perfect.
Of course I can't remember it, but I have seen movies showing how rapidly automobiles replaced horse-drawn vehicles.
Thanks. I tried looking up Paul Foss and couldn't find anything relevant. Do you have a link?
Economies of scale. Implication for legacy autos is that with falling sales there will be increased costs of production. Interim solution is to rationalise the number of models sold and have commonality/interchangability of parts. Timeframe for the EV transition seems to be getting extended/revised. Instead of 2025 now looking at 2028.
In the middle of this video, I just got presented with an ad for a VW Tygo, whatever that is…. Ds RUclips advertising algorithms, probably need a bit of tweaking….
Best wishes to your wife, I hope the treatment continues to work.
I learned of many of these principles from working in the motor industry in a past life. The companies who were best at these were the Japanese. Nissan, Toyota and Honda were pushing the company I worked for, to improve as they did (and Rover, who were being influenced at the time by Honda). I assumed that all motor companies adopted these principles. It seems not, and it also seems that just because some did in the past, doesn't mean they still do.
i wonder if all of those 3 will survive
We should Acclaim your input.
I wonder how it would have turned out if BMW hadn't swooped in the steal the fish Honda was playing.
Interesting video content. Curious about the why behind the why behind the why.
Tesla's Model line up seems a better strategy than BYD's to me.
Tesla has 1 model & sells 50,000 of them.
BYD has 50,000 different models & sells 1 of each. 😀
Note quite, but you get my drift.
I agree....the Q will be if and how much the Govn(s) will bail them out. Simple moral hazard, privitise the profits, socialise the losses.
SOME Teslas are ALREADY CHEAPER than average gasoline carsvin the USA!!!! & will be dirt cheap to produce in a few doublings!!
Tesla model Y price has increased since it launched...
No, Teslas are not cheaper than gasoline cars. The cheapest Tesla is a RWD model 3 at 40 grand which is the price of a 3 series BMW. You can buy a car like a Nissan Versa for 15 grand...
If you're a middle manager in a long established company, everything staying exactly the same gives a higher chance of keeping your job than if things change, especially if significantly. Your value in knowing the existing system diminishes with change, and plummets with big change. An established company is, in some ways, the sum of its middle managers, and what's in their individual interests.
The more of them you make the cheaper they get.
Very nice ❤
MYSTERY: I can't find this Paul Foss with google searches for (PF) journalist, PF chinese auto exports or PF Wright's Law. HELP!
The first example of Wright's Law is the oil industry from 1859 to 1893.
Amazing
Good ❤
Another disadvantage the legacy automakers must deal with is the UAW who has an adversarial relationship with their employers. Antiquated work rules stifle innovation and all but assure that F, GM, Stellantis will be less competitive. Additionally, compare the workers on the line at a China or Japanese plant vs the employees at an American autoplant. Trim, focused, willing to help their employer vs. overweight, entitled, intent keeping the status quo. Pretty easy to see the difference.
The real sad thing is that those companies in Europe are heavily connected to government, because they are part of the national pride and they employ a large work force. So when they will go bankrupt, most countries will probably buy out their dept, just like it happened in 2008. Both times they failed because they made the wrong decisions. So if the government saves them, the tax payer will be the one who pays for that.
Evening great videos today 23 15 pm
wow, what a great video you just made. Scary for Europe, but gvts are now rushing towards protective laws to save their automakers. But could Nokia be saved by Finland ?
It's not as if the legacy auto doesn't know about wright's law. It's been around for decades. They just don't want to bother because they are willing to let the next CEO deal with it. And now it's the next, next CEO. And the funny thing is, he or she also doesn't want to deal with it. That's work. They just want to sit around and collect their pay. In any case, if they get fired, they get a golden parachute so it makes no difference to them if they do something or not. So they do nothing.
So, trying to apply Wright's Theorem, besides Tesla and BYD, we should expect VW, Porsche, Polestar and Ford to survive well, and GM to do alright.
I suspect the US market will be where the European market is today in 2 years. It will be where the chinese market is today in 4 - 5 years, probably. Could be quicker; doubt if it will be slower.
Forget about Wright's law, thoughts and prayers for your wife. Hope she recovers.
Do you feel like the Ford company decision to split into separate parts, ie Model-E, to make manufacturing decisions on different levels is going to help them compete in the EV market at all?
Excellent video. I googled Paul Foss couldn't find him. Maybe I got the name wrong. Best wishes to your wife.
So wait until 2030 before buying an EV. Think my old car can keep going for 7 more years.
I’m curious in case many of the legacy’s go under, if any of the Chinese makers would be permitted to enter the US market. There’s a lot of appetite to grow the EV market amongst regulators (for now…) and if legacy makers start folding, who besides the Chinese brands can enter the market? Or will everyone just drive a Tesla 😂
I don't know how it is with the export of cars from China but other types of products the Chinese government pays for the shipping to several different companies. That is what is said unless it is changed. After all, the wage cost is probably lower than in the US and Europe as well
Ok but we know cost savings does not get passed on to consumers, especially in markets with restricted competition, shareholder priority and layers of third-party middlemen. Like USA healthcare, unrestricted consolidation and efficiencies just lead to monopoly pricing control and accelerated profit growth (at the consumer's expense).
Preventing that is the government’s job
Please re-read Tesla's Master Plan from 2007.
Good
I don't understand - cars the size of a Ford Focus are Corolla - Civic - Elantra - Golf are still expensive because they are sold in luxury trims only and are pushing $30,000 and beyond with tax and prep. They could sell boatloads of stripped down versions WITH NO DEVELOPEMENT COSTS. Lithium Ion battery vehicles about to become uninsurable because of the fire hazard so there will not be the production capacity to provide electric vehicles to match the world wide demand for vehicles.
Then perhaps you also have to compare the salary cost, a worker in China probably has a lower salary than her equivalent worker in the USA or Europe. Then there are taxes like that and possible government financial support if it is paid out somewhere Where Tesla has factories
i dont have a charging place live in apt. so they can slow adoption by holding back
Any signs that may apply is negated by The madness of the owner.
What is the difference between "Wrights law" and "economies of scale"?
Anchor ⚓ to the bottom of the sea
Good call Sam would love to see a small vid on the chair man getting 🍰 caked
And also when Tesla cracks autonomous driving it will change the whole game. It may be if transport as a service takes off then car ownership will be the exception to the rule.
One of your best and most informative. I’m worried that with both our (Australian) govts attitude toward almost anything new, we’ll become a dumping ground for the worlds right hand drive cars. Even worse, that they’ll welcome cheap ICE cars into our market.
I'm not sure Wright'law, but for sure the price of the car has increased to a point where I can no longer afford it.
roughly equal to the devaluation of the currency
The Italian company making giga-pressses is owned by a Hong Kong based Chinese co.
I mean if gas companies was not wanting to stay huge sell at a lose to eachother , open together a separate electric car company with a rebranding. Maybe gas car companies could get off their horses.
there is a problem not enough lithium; so you need to go find a bettery battery that is much cheaper.
You’ve certainly got your thumb on the pulse Sam
It seems obvious to those who can see
And blind to those who want to see something different
Sodium ion batteries should make it more worthwhile to convert standard cars to electric.
The only way to escape from Wright's law is to innovate. Something that legacy is reluctant to do. Maybe that is what Toyota have been seeking to do with their Hydrogen push.
I’m praying for your wife ❤️
@@margarita8442 what is wrong with you?
@@gavinsmiyh6218 dont be idiots
@@margarita8442 He has to live.
At the 11:55 mark you said OEM'S said it cost 2x the the price to make a ICE car over a electric car. Actually I think you got that backwards they say it cost 2x to make a electric car over a ice car. Sure you know that just pointing out a mistake sorry!
Cheaters NEVER win...
i feel for the kiddies so much