The Monty Hall Problem (Cult of the Lamb Animatic)
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- Опубликовано: 15 сен 2024
- There are 3 doors behind one of which is car-
I've made so many animatics for these two but I'm having fun that's what matters
Main inspo: • Raine and Eda’s Math P...
Audios from Brooklyn 99 s4 ep8
Diaz - Aym
Santiago - Baal
Captain Holt - Narinder
Kevin - Lambert
Subtitled by me
#cultofthelamb #animatic
My favourite part is Aym and Baal casually on the couch with Narinder, as well as the whole ‘captain dad’ thing, very fitting
BONE🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️🗣️
Also subtitles looking good man!
@@ghoulish_GuyGHOUL SPOTTED
Hell yea!! Ty fam glad the sub works
JAIL. NOW.
in the words of Raman halt "BBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNNEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE"
@@ghoulish_Guy i trust everyone with a Ralsei pfp, there always so wholsom-
Lamb has no collar... freak.
@@MxIbatomik red crown is that you
oh… oh, Oh OH *OH* God! NO. Why!?!
@@justareguralcitizen9492*YYYEEESSSS! YYYYYYEEEEESSSSSS!*
He’s also wearing Narinder’s cloak at end too 😅
She doesn't?
Narinder opening his face has the same feeling as a parent yelling their kid’s full name. Also I love the subtitling of “whatdidyousay” so much
This is literally one of the most perfect fandoms to use with this audio
3:00 the Crown has seen things😂
It got PTSD form that night!
Alone at the edge of a universe humming a tune
For merely dreaming we were snow
Backstory of the Sins of the Flesh update
Aym's non-chalant-ness is one of my favorite things ever
HIM SCREAMING BONE HAS MADE ME REWIND SO MANY TIMES
this is CRIMINALLY underrated and needs more attention, way too funny
I Love All And Everything Of This Animation. Holt And Kevin As Naridner And Lamb Fits So Well.
This had me arguing with myself for a while so to try and sum it up simply
As long as there are more wrong doors than right doors, you have a higher chance to pick the wrong one.
Imagine it with 1,000,000 wrong doors. You're much more likely to pick any of the 99,999 wrong ones, so when your options are reduced to just 2 doors you should swap.
There is a _small_ chance you were correct, but there's a _larger_ chance you weren't,
OHhhhhhhhh thank you cause honestly I wanted to know the math
the crux is that your choice isnt retroactively made into a better choice by knowing one of the answers is wrong.
if you had a one in a million chance of getting it right, then you havent been retroactively been made into a genius that picked a door with a 50/50 chance of being correct, its still the same door.
youre effectively changing the question, its not "do you want to switch" youre betting on the fact that your first guess was probably wrong
That’s correct but Another way of looking at it (probably the less straightforward way but eh) is as follows.
Let’s say you got it right the first time, which happens 1/3 of the time. The host opens a door, then tells you you can open the other door. given that you’ve already picked the right door, the other two doors are the same. In this 1/3 of the time, switching will make you lose.
Now alternatively, you got it wrong the first time, which happens 2/3 of the time. Then the host rules out the other wrong door, and lets you switch to the correct door. In this scenario which occurs 2/3 of the time, if you switch, you get it right.
1/3 of the time, you’re in a scenario where switching is wrong, and 2/3 of the time you’re in a scenario where switching is right. It has nothing to do with the current choice between 2 doors, as is commonly and intuitively assumed, but instead to do with the probability you already got it right. As the comment before me said you’re banking on your first guess being wrong
@@Lylybeebee wouldn't it be 50/50? No matter your first choice, one of the wrong ones will always be revealed. Your new choice is like choosing between a completely unrelated 50/50. Of the three doors, let's say 2 is correct. If you pick door 1, door 3 will be opened. Door 3 is completely redundant as you didn't pick it originally and it was revealed before you could switch to it. Same problem for 3, just swap 3 n 1. If you pick 2, either 1 or 3 will be opened. Doesn't matter, you can't (or at least, shouldn't) pick the opened one. The door opened is never your original pick or the right one, so that door will always be redundant (I think, I'd love to be proven wrong, this is making my 'tisms fire)
@@billgatestrappedinthe7year909 but that’s the thing, your original choice does matter. If your original choice was wrong, then it becomes right to switch, if your original choice was right then it becomes wrong to switch. Your original choice being wrong happens 2/3 of the time, and your original choice being right happens 1/3 of the time. This means that in the switch, 2/3 of the time switching gets it right, while 1/3 of the time switching gets it wrong. That is to say, the odds of getting it right by switching is 2/3
This is one of those problems that seems obvious after you figure it out but is really difficult to figure out for some reason.
Literally me: "That's not true! That's impossible!! Oh no, that's right actually..." 😂
I mean, a lot of people think they get it and don't, too.
Like, Kevin is also wrong here. Probability doesn't "lock in", it's a feature of asymmetrical information.
Ok, so if anyone is still confused about how it works, the simplest way I can explain it is that since you have a 2/3 chance to pick a wrong door originally, and the host will always eliminate one of the wrong doors, the last door now has a higher chance of being right. If the car is in door number 2 and you pick number 1, host opens 3 and you swap, you win. Stick with 1, you lose. You pick number 2, host opens 3, swap, lose. Stick, win. You pick 3, host opens 1, swap, win. Stick, lose. It works with any number of doors greater than 2. You have a 2/3 chance of choosing the wrong door the first time.
Okay, thank you! I’ve heard of this before (honestly it might’ve been on game theory lol) but I don’t think they actually explained how it’s a 2/3 chance if you swap, just that it is.
Statistics says that, but I've seen deal or no deal and it hardly works our for the person :p
So... who said that the chance resets after elimination of one of the doors?
And shouldn't it be a variant case of Schroedinger's box anyway if you talk about probability determination?
@@TheArklyte you have a 2/3 chance to win if you choose both the two other doors, and if one of the doors is eliminated, the other one is still 2/3
@@ThatOne6uy that doesn't work as the probability value of ALL doors resets and chance value is determined only when YOUR door opens.
The audio is just perfect for Lamb and Nari
OH MY GOD CULT OF THE LAMB + BROOKLYN NINE NINE THIS IS SO GOOD
I love how Nari started to explain the problem, to be interrupted by the Lamb and then for the Lamb to say the exact thing Nari just said
This amazing and something I didn't even realize I needed, thank you. God The fact that his face came apart when Aym suggested to bone killed me
I am in LOVE with the art style and attention to detail! Lamb having the neck scar at 3:01 and wearing Nari’s cloak! LOVE IT
Oh my Lamb this was beautiful 🤣
Thanks for that 😊
3:00 oh, that was sneaky! So Nari really spent the night...he landed the Lamb his clothes XD
You know narinder's mad when even kallamar heard him x'D
(Either that or I'm being stupid, sorry if I am T_T)
You may ask yourself why you subtitled this but I'm glad you did.
I never thought of Narinder as Captain Holt but now I need more of it
I love the Lamb’s ponytail, it adds so much personnality
This is probably one of the best cotl videos I've seen in a while. The art style matches really well and every one of your animatics has a killer base to it. Keep up the great work lavender.
It becomes easier to understand if you explain like: "Would you rather choose from three possibilities, or two?"
The idea of having lamb cover a scar with their collar is genius
The subtitles are super good for those who can't actually hear the audio or have auditory issues, so thank you for putting those
WHY DOES THIS AUDIO WORK SO WELL
BEAUTIFUL ANIMATIC, I LAUGHED WAY TOO LOUD FOR HOW LATE IT WAS BUT THANK YOU
thank you for subtitling- makes my life easier being in public spaces and wanting to watch RUclips
People always explain the Monty Hall problem poorly. It's really simple. There's a 2/3 chance that your initial choice was _not_ the prize. Since one of the remaining doors _is_ the prize, that means that 2/3 of the time, you'll win if you switch.
You explained it simply. But also wrong.
If the host is guaranteed to remove an incorrect door, then one of those 3 doors was never an option for you to begin with. It doesn't matter if it's 3 or 300, if the host knowingly eliminates a wrong door every time you choose to keep or switch then it will always boil down to the last 2 doors. Thus, before you even pick a door, the game is 50/50.
@@vigorouslethargy It's not a math problem. It's psychology. There are two "groups" of doors. Winning and losing. Reducing the number of doors to two results in a choice of "Keep your initial group, or take the other group." So if the odds were against your previous choice being the winning option, you should switch groups. The actual doors don't matter, only which "Group" you are most likely to currently be in.
@@KefkeWren
But the winning group and the losing group have equal odds as soon as one of the losing doors is removed from play. It's only psychology for people who don't understand very simple probability. If there were 10 doors, you have a 10% chance of guessing it right the first shot. With every losing door removed, the probability of each remaing door being a winner, including the one you chose, increases. After it dwindles to 5 doors, they all have a 20% chance of being correct.
Try it yourself. Have someone put a quarter under one of 10 random cups, go through the motions, and at the very end when there's only 2 cups left switch your choice. According to your description, you should have a 90% chance to win by swapping. Repeat enough times and you'll see your actual win rate will be around 50%.
@@vigorouslethargy You didn't choose when they had equal odds. You chose when they had different odds, and now you're being offered the chance to take what you didn't pick then.
@@vigorouslethargy There's not three outcomes, so don't think of it as choosing between three options. Think of it as flipping a coin that's been weighted on one side, then being asked before you've seen the result if you want to turn it over or reveal it as it lies. Even if the weight gets taken off, the coin is already flipped. It doesn't get flipped again.
Loving this so much, I'm watching this a second time now
That's why we can't make an egg with Narinder.
Dang- I love your art style! And Baal and Aym are so cute!
The third eye is a little freaky 3:06
The subtitles are excellent and much appreciated!!!
Ok so at first I didn’t know what the giveaway was until I just went back and compared the outfits
This is so underrated what the fuck.
This deserves all the views, likes and comments.
The part that got me to understand the math problem was that I didn't realize that the host would never open the door with the prize behind it
I love the scar around Lamb's neck there
(Turn on captions)
3:21 TO MAKE IT BETTER. And to help those who probably got the video suggested because they watched b99 and not because they played cult of the lamb learn the characters names
Rip Andre Braugher, i fucking loved Raymond Holt.
I understand the Math Problem. Saw a short about it a few days ago
Damm this is great, just putting this here to try and get the algorithm to push it to others
I've seen your art on Reddit, a good chunk of it is saved, I LOVE WHAT YOU MAKE
I love how most people have just decided that Lamb and Narinder just need to bone and get over their bickering.
BSKDJFNSDKJFN this fits them so well LMAOO
I do want to thank you for the subtitles, tho, it makes it funnier n.n
I love and hate that this fits perfectly
THE CROWN loosing its sanity is everything
i love that show so much tho
I love this, the perfect crossover of my two favorite things and a cute art style ❤
Commenting because the detail of scars in Narinder’s wrists from the chains is so good!!! It shows how much you considers the sillies I love it
I’ve watched this a few times now (over the course of a few days) and the subtiles always make me laugh so thanks for adding them (also makes it easier to hear)
I love that you gave credits 🥰
And the animatic fits perfectly with these characters xD
I
LOVE
THIS
TO LEVELS I DONT EVEN UNDERSTAND WHY I LOVE IT SO MUCH
3:00 "we do not speak of this" sir you are already married its a bit late for that
Now I want to hear Narinder say “Bagels! Bagels! Bagels!”
THIS IS PERFECT LMAO incredible work
I love the designs of all the characters i can't wait to see the goat
Why did you make the lame so cute? Like super adorable?
Leshy as the host 😂😂😂😂😂
thanks for subtitling this!
Why did no one tell me it started with the Monty Hall problem?! Thats 200% more funnier! I love your animation, you have a really nice art style :D
I hate the fact that I could use this audio for any group of my characters and it would make sense
Excellent subtitiles, I appreciate the extra effort
I love Brooklyn 99
I see this as canon. But all jokes aside, this was really fitting, and it's a fantastic animatic, much respect!
My new favorite animation on RUclips
I just realized that instead of having rings on their fingers they have matching earrings on their right ears.
This is GREAT
My favorite game AND my favorite show? You have my respect lady
This perfect funny video made my day.Thank you🎉
I fucking love the character design, BEAutiful work
no words for how gorgeous this is lmao
The problem itself took me forever to figure out. The key factor is that the host knows where the car is and opens a door that you didn't choose, and that the car isn't behind. So if you chose a door the car wasn't behind then there's only one door the host could open.
The numbers part I think comes from people overthinking the problem. The only choice you really make in this scenario that matters is your first choice. You have a 1/3 chance of choosing the door with the car behind it, and a 2/3 chance of choosing a door it isn't behind. If you choose a door it isn't behind, you learn which door the car is behind. So it becomes a 2/3 chance of knowing exactly where the car is, and a 1/3 chance of not knowing. That initial choice does all the legwork in terms of probability.
It's safer to assume the door you picked is empty due to the higher number of empty doors. When the host reveals an empty door and with your first pick most likely being empty, it narrows the car to being in the last door.
Omg this is so awesome.
Thank you for subtitling this
i am * laughing * i am * wheezing * this is ART-
The audio fits perfectly!😂
Praise the lamb
Hope to see more of these, animatics like this have really sold me on the 'Lamb x Nariander' ship and I want *more*. XP
Aym just became my favorite for this-
This explanation finally made this problem click for me somehow.
The car has a 1/3 chance of being behind your door.
The car has a 2/3 chance of not being behind your door.
The host opening an empty door doesn't change those probabilities, it just eliminates a wrong choice.
YES i was hoping this would be B99
If you want a more intuitive understanding of how this works without getting bogged down in the math, the best way I've heard to describe it is this. Instead of 3 doors, there's now 100 doors and still only 1 car. You make your choice, the host then opens 98 empty doors, leaving your choice and 1 more. Which is more likely, that you managed to succeed at a 1/100 chance with your first pick, or that you'll succeed by switching with a 1/2 chance on your second?
I have found the Monty Hall problem is much easier to grasp if you scale up the numbers:
The gameshow has a hundred doors.
You pick one.
The host opens 98 doors. Only two remain, the one you chose, and another. Will you change the door?
Of course I will. What are the odds that I had, somehow, miraculously, picked exactly the right door from a 100 doors.
Two things.
1) OHMYGODTHATARTISSOADROABLEOMGOMGOMG
2) Fuckin' LOVE Brooklyn 9-9.
When kevin talks, all I can hear is Garrus Vakarin from mass effect
I love your art style!!! 💚
Nice. I'm glad they don't have a bone to pick anymore.
This did not end the way i thought it would.
But hey, they wont get the divorce now!
Good laugh in the morning, thanks.
It’s 1/3 chance if the car can magically switch doors. 1/2 if it’s static.
BRUHHH THIS IS SO CUTE 💛
Love your art!!
Of course Leshy is the host.
This is SO PERFECT
So the fight is over
Yep
Because you understand the ma-
Nope
Because you guys b-
YEP!!!
Is this why we have a goat now?
BROOOO I SAW YOUR ART ON REDDIT💜
YOU ARE A GREAT ARTIST
Am I as oblivious as Baal because I don't notice it either. Is it that Lambert just has his bell collar off or something else? ^^"