Is SBUX Stock A Great Business At A Fair Price Now?
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
- Starbucks stock (SBUX) is definitely a great brand and has been growing over time despite ups and downs. The sentiment is a bit subdued and there are some issues as it is normal for such bigger businesses, especially global businesses. But, if they solve their issues as they did in the past, this could be a great long-term addition to a portfolio.
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0:00 SBUX Stock
2:37 Last Earnings
4:18 Earnings Call
7:30 SBUX Valuation
9:43 Stock To Buy
11:22 JDE Peets
Recently bought some recommended stocks and now they are just penny stocks. There seems to be more negative portfolios in the last 3rd half of 2023 with markets tumbling, soaring inflation, and banks going out of business. My concern is how can the rapid interest-rate hike be of favor to a value investor, or is it better avoiding stocks for a while?
The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?
ANGELA LYNN SCHILLING' is her name. She is regarded as a genius in her area and works for Empower Financial Services. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
Great video Sven! I like this new approach were you put the stock you're analyzing on one of the 3 categories (relative / absolute / margin of safety) and explains the reasons and expectations. It makes all much more clear and more flexible than the binary buy / don't buy
Glad it was helpful!
Hey Sven, could you please provide an update after we earnings yesterday.?
good idea!
Like cigarettes, caffeine is addicting without the hazards of smoking. Going to Starbucks is a daily ritual for many people.
And, Starbucks is a status symbol. Nobody brings their own brown coffee mug to pour their coffee in. They proudly exhibit the Logo. Drinking Starbucks "means" something
Cigarette stocks are a buy with 10% yields, they still grow earnings, but slower.
It is symbol brand in my country. In addition, hot spot for sales person who needs to visit many locations. They have to report on salesforce and they do not have office to do! Which makes Starbucks workstation very valuable for them. @@sociolocomtsac
thanks for sharing!
indeed, I'm a frequent customer of Starbucks
It's the same valuation as in the 'dip' of 2022 ($70), people consider that a bargain today. The more bearish comments I see, the more I like to buy. Maybe that's sentiment investing.
exactly, the more bearish comments we see, the more is worth to buy. Same happened with several good stocks in 2022 (Microsoft, Visa, Meta...)
thanks for sharing!
Hi Sven. If I remember correctly you said you have a positive outlook for JDE Peets stock with high single digit returns likely (then at a higher stock price). Now it sounds very different.
Love it, I just started a small position at Starbucks last week! It's not a screaming deal yet I just considered it to be fair value right now with it being such a well-known brand, the PE is in line with the market, and they have some nice growth potential.
thanks for sharing!
I think NKE now is in similar position, it would be great if you take a look into that
will do!
@@Value-Investing thank you , I appreciate it!
Thank you for addressing this Sven. I agree with you. I am a value investor and I think I will add SBUX to my "buy when market corrects" watchlist. Maybe I'll consider buying a little now, and average down. Maybe. Thank you again!
:-)
Started dollar cost averaging on SBUX and NKE
thanks for sharing!
Your videos are wonderful. Thanks for the analyses.
Glad you like them!
Thanks for your insights. Always appreciated
thanks!
I would never spend 7$ for a coffee at Starbucks, but I'm owning steir stocks because there are enough who have no problem in wasting their money
:-))) good one!
Just be aware, like myself, you`ll never receive an invitation to Starbucks Stacy's trendy birthday party. :) Sure you can live with it though.
same here
Same reason why I'm investing in it and a few other companies. You won't find me being a fool throwing money into the shredder but there are more then enough fools willing to do so to make it highly profitable.
Money and time. If you have more money than time it is not a waste of money clown.
Greate video Steve, fantastic analysis. Thank You Sir
thanks!
We need a similar video for NKE😊
Same story, but more expensive and less dividend. If growth continues and the multiple stays high, you’ll get your 7-10% return, and if either fails, then you won’t. Poor risk/reward.
Yes. Nike and Starbucks the same story: China problem. Very different business. Valuation standpoint, Nike is more expensive, but as Steve Job said, Nike is not just selling shoes. It is pretty much sells designs, new technologies incorporated in its products and ultimately good emotions associated with its products. For this reason, I think Nike deserves premium compared to its competitors. It had not been this cheap for long time.
@@AlanMWatson801 no sven jr
will do!
Good classic Sven video, thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Hi Sven, thank you very much for your time and videos, I really appreciate them. In the future I would like to see an analysis on Ferretti, which is the biggest yacht maker on a global scale and that got listed on the Italian stock exchange last year. The company is currently growing at around 10% per year and the stock is trading at around 12 times P/E. Of course it is a ciclycal business but the market of UHNW individuals should do okay over time. Thanks for you Attention, have a nice day!
not my circle of competence :-(
Combining an outright purchase of SBUX with writing weekly low "Delta" (0.20 or less) call options against the position provides enhanced cash flow in addition to the quarterly dividend. Of course, SBUX needs to be regularly monitored along with the options. The "Theta Decay" and low Delta of the options should provide a good probability that the SBUX position will not be called.
If called, repeat the process.
Special attention should be given during weeks that earnings will be released and when SBUX goes Ex-Dividend.
thanks for sharing!
Starbucks SBUX just reported earnings, would you do an update on current earnings?
This is gold, thanks for the video !!
thanks!
Hi Sven, what do you think of Rubis? Considering its remarkable 50% appreciation since you initially recommended the stock. What are you current thoughts on its performance and potential moving forward?
thx, one of my fav staples!
do you think NKE is also a good buy at this valuation?
NKE is down I see, I know I didn't like it at $160
Down to 83bn valuation. Would be great to to hear your thoughts on the opportunity (or a risk of a trap).
Will do!!!
I reviewed SBUX recently myself and reached a similar conclusion. It's a good business, but it's not a bargain. I used to work there, and I still go there (to get the short-sized coffees and free refills), but I don't know if we'll get a bargain on this.
I'm pointing for the lattes to be made by robots and baristas laid off en masse.
Pls do the same analysis for MCD😊
Hi Sven, love your value-focused vids.
Since you are deep into business cycles and also metals, I wonder if you are following the French company Derichebourg?
IMO that would fit your „hunting“ criteria. Would love to get your professional opinion - do you see here a deep value stock?
Best regards, and keep up the great work!
that was an interesting boom and bust, to check, thanks for the reminder!
I am sorry as I know people bombard you with stock requests, but I was wondering if you could do analysis on CVC or BMY? These are interesting companies with relatively low PE. Appreciate it.
thanks for suggesting, but those are not that close to my circle of competence :-(
Well, till Mo I have time to think about it. I have noticed this in ather stocks and yes, I am buying at those dips, but not selling bc it stock I love with dividends.
Thanks for sharing
What the heck happened with Cocoa? I love to hear an analysis to explain us the implications of this crazy run
lower production, thus price goes up
Bros is a huge growth coffee chain.
Peet's had M&A costs which lead to that PE. For 24 their PE ratio will be around 13. Their German brands are strong. Jacobs is very established.
thanks for sharing!
I was considering starting a small position because it looks good, despite I don't like its products are SO expensive, but if people keep going and spending there... The business definitely looks good then and I will do it around $80. Apple is WAY worse in that regard and it's the biggest company in the "world!" Thanks for your insights.
Huge debt, negative equity and 60% payout ratio. Is this really suited for value investing?
Yes, I wouldn't really consider Starbucks a value stock. In the US consumer sector, something like Albertsons Companies looks much more like a value stock to me...
as said in the video!
I would drew a line who touches the bottoms of 2020 and 2022 and if it hold that line which is around 85$ It might be a buy. The revenue went up 35% from 2019, the same as the MC. Profit in average is flat. The downside is quite big for me.
thanks for sharing!
Dear Sven, lots of blood on the streets for lithium stocks - can we hope for an update?
Very good analysis! Actually I was thinking that with a PE ratio of 24 7% growth isn't impressive
So am I. At 5 dollars a pop I don't see any growth in this company.
@@centurione6489 the dividend also matters. so it is rather 9 % growth of your investment if you combine it.
thanks for sharing!
Happy Easter
:-)
Nobody needs to pay 5 dollars for a coffee that costs 9 cents to make but all buildings and houses whether new or repair will need BECN and AOS.
I respectfully believe that Starbucks is "massaging" the data.
China is in a severe economic downturn, and the US consumer is under serious inflationary pressure..
Also nobody needs to spend 100+ dollars to dine out or 1000 dollars for a pair of shoe and so on but yet people loves it. The consumer behavior is all that is matter.
@@walter6586 No, the best investments are what trap people or what the government will pay for. The USA government won't way for fancy coffee drinks but they will pay for healthcare and the basics people need even if they are broke. Only a tiny amount of people will buy a Rolls Royce or $1000 shoes and they will get stolen but no one steals a roof or a hot water heater.
thanks for sharing!
Nobody wants to pay. But everyone pays.
Take a shot every time you see this guy comment “Thanks for sharing”
Mature, at best moderately priced, low shareholder returning large cap company. Large China risk and target of distruption from every side. "Leave it to the pension funds".
thanks for sharing!
You did not touch the risks like unionization in the US, which can significantly dent profits.
Thanks for adding value
Yes its buy for me because a value investment in that market is not coming every year and i will be happy to add if dropped to be value investment
:-)
JDE PEETS Normalized PER is around 16-17. They have 195 million in hedge losses in 2023. Anyway I would buy JDE around 16-17 euros, not before.
🗽Sven, SBUX looks okay, but SBUX has a negative equity. That for me is a bit neagtive. ☝
.
yes, due to buybacks!
What you think about Proximus?
haven't checked yet, thanks!
A coffee business might be able to keep up with inflation too...kinda like cigarettes and alcohol.
Thanks for sharing!
Solar video coming when!?🙂
thanks for the reminder
One factor for US consumers is that there are unions forming, and also some stopped supporting SBUX due to Starbuck's backing Israel. Could just be short term issues but I've certainly noticed some fall back here and there.
Short term issues causing long term buying opportunities
@@musicloveranthony I believe so too
thanks for sharing!
Great business at a cheap price, I'm buying.
thanks for sharing!
I bought some shares in december at $96 (I thought they would go back to 100 in a short time). To date they have dropped a lot. are there good future prospects?
@francescapascuzzo9338 I think the stock will start to recover the next month and will go back to its maximum
@@francescapascuzzo9338 yes, I'm also in red but in a long-term perspective I'm confindent SBUX will be a market-beating investment,
Need it to drop more to $70 range. Waiting patiently. Capital has been raised.
You may be waiting for a looooong time
@@TemperanceMinistry-ri2nz Will surely move on to the next investment if so. Anything can happen in the market. People who say “it will never will”, fail to act when it does! Similar to META. It dropped all the way down to $80. Did you take action? I would bet you didn’t. While I accumulated a massive position. Mr. Market is irrational at times. Your job is to identify such irrationalities and strike while the iron is hot!
@@user-jy4xc3ou1z No I did not buy META. I am more into Dividend stocks. What other stocks are you waiting to buy and what prices?
thanks for sharing!
Just started a position in Starbucks, the brand is very strong maybe it won't ever be at 15 PE
maybe!
with the price dropping another 2.5% since the recording, I feel it is not a bad time to get a small position now
Thanks for sharing
In the USA Starbucks is like the McDonalds of coffee shops. It's ubiquitous. Peet's is like Del Taco, which is/was a niche fast food that was smaller than Taco Bell.
McDonald's dinner jumped to 20 bucks and Starbucks' coffee is becoming comparatively very expensive ...
thanks for sharing!
@Value-Investing0 Why?
Yes it is. Sbux is a solid buy at these prices
agree, excellent buy
thanks for sharing!
how do you feel about humana
Would a value investor that always weighs price versus value ever go to “€5 for a coffee” Starbucks, themselves?
PPCIan is huge on Starbucks, and seems to frequent it as well. I bought SBUX back when he started covering it, but recently sold a tranche to buy a share of NVDA back when it was in the $600's. That worked out better in the short-term.
Compound 7 a day for a decade or two :/))))
When Sven speaks we listen... Thanx for the great content... any update on Brazil?
hm, Brazil, thanks for the reminder!
My coffee at Starbucks is only 3 bucks. I think some over exaggerate but others want to feel spoiled sometimes
starbucks is priced properly when dividend is above 4.5%
thanks for sharing!
The debt concerns me. It makes the growth look artificial. I might not buy the stock, but I have their coffee atleast 3x a week. Millennials would not survive without their Venti Iced Caramel Macchiato with almond milk and an extra shot of espresso. Have the caramel drizzle divided equally in the bottom and on top of the foam, with light ice. Add 3 pumps of mocha syrup, 2 pumps of toffee nut syrup, and a sprinkle of cinnamon on top. Serve it in a grande cup with a separate cup of ice on the side and a packet of Sweet'N Low."
-Order created by chatbot 😅
:-)))
I did this with Disney. $202 not long ago. Then it fell out of favor and fell to $79. Disney...the 100 year old cash cow! Already back up to $120. I'm not buying Starbucks yet, but it's on the radar.
thanks for sharing!
In Europe I rather go to an Italian than Starbucks. Never understood the hype about Starbucks.
I am European but I like the very large coffee that i can drink for 30 minutes. Coffee size matters the most to me. Taste comes second when it comes to coffee. That’s probably the only Food/beverage I would say so
italy pretty far from most european countries though
thanks for sharing!
thanks for sharing!
The stock market and Crypto investment is a way to protect against inflation. Particularly in the midst of a recession, investors must understand where and how to allocate funds to protect against inflation and still make profits.
In my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the US dollar on investments is multifaceted, but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can passively explore and experience a truly diverse market by using an advisor. director portfolio.
Who do you trade with? Could you guide me on how to get in touch with your advisor? My funds are being eroded by inflation, and I'm seeking a more lucrative investment strategy to effectively utilize them.
I am a buyer in the low $50s. Not worth a premium mid-20s multiple like $COST or $WM.
thanks for sharing!
Interesting stocks i learned about through my internship are Fugro and TKH Group, two internationally operating Dutch companies. The valuation seems low, could you review (one of) those?
It would be interesting to hear your take!
Hope that there is no war about Taiwan.
thanks for sharing!
Starbucks at current price doesn´t feel like screaming value to me. Personally I feel Starbucks is the type of stock one sould buy when the market is cheap.
thanks for sharing!
The irony is McDonald's coffee is better and much cheaper...but not the "experience."
Cheaper but I swear McDonald's has the worst coffee I've ever bought
Yea, people don't go to Starbucks for a "coffee"...they go for a mochachocadappachino
A coffee bean is a coffee bean. Starbucks doesn't sell coffee. It sells some kind of sugary substance that's spiked with a little coffee.
@@eco-nutjob that's brilliant! Starbucks is actually a caffeinated candy company 🤣
:-)
Please make similar video on UiPath and Roblox
5:02 this is worth the price of admission.
thanks for sharing!
Was literally just talking with my kiddo about Starbucks stocks. She said there’s all kinds of boycotts and different things this year that skills keep it at a pretty ok price this year. It’s been down while the markets been up. (Also, good to watch one of your videos again, it’s been a minute and I always like hearing what you got to say)
thanks for sharing!
P/E at 24 TTM + China exposure. There are safer investments to be made in the market. Basically this trade in line with avg S&P stock. Sven, you can do better!
Thanks for sharing!
@@Value-Investing sorry didn’t want to sound grumpy. Really appreciate your content.
no risk, no gain
No pain, no gain
Why don’t you mention the increase in the international coffee prices that must have reduced their margins? What about the effect of cold brew and cold drinks trend?
coffee is such a marginal cost to what they do, and actually their margins went up last quarter...
I don't see the correlation between Starbucks, which is a restaurant company, and JDE Peet's, which is a pure coffee player
just the coffee connection, and I was asked to discuss JDE peets too.. But yes, nothing that big even if they also have a chain.
This quite an ethical move. The bombing of the 3 cars from food aid is making things worse and now Starbucks? Can’t put into words how awkward this is
What do you think at the SBUX leverage levels ?
ah, as long as they keep their earnings ok, if not, yes, it can go into an issue!
Can you review LULU please 🙏
Thanks for suggesting!
1:55 such as cryptos game play
:-)
if coffee prices inflate like cocoa did, these companies go down ;)
Good point.
@@ElGreco365 yeah cocoa tripled in a few weeks. Can easily happen.
Just marginal input
I recognize the business is good. But I hate Starbucks, hate its products, don't go there for my coffee. I will leave it for you guys.
thanks for sharing!
Sbux is around 70 is a good P. Not 90.
what about the boicot due to Palestine-Israel issue risk ?
for now in the US, less customers in the afternoon
absoluut buy?😅
You are too Dutch biased ; ). What about Dutch Bros or Nestle. I never think competitors are ever too far, but are really close they just don't look like the typical coffee company. For instance CocaCola, Dr.Pepper and Monster energy drinks. Thanks for the coverage.
:-))))
i don't think they are going anywhere. in my city of 1.5M population, their market share has been shrinking and pushed out by local roasteries. SB's coffee in general is of low quality. over 30 locations have been closed in my city in canada. local roastery chains use beans roasted fresh in-house, professional baristas add latte art to every cup, and pricing it $1-2 cheap than Starbucks. it's a matter of time SB would resort to sharing space in supermarkets.
This is a good point!
How about now lol ?
Let me chech
Sven, let's be real here
Companies that are well established will not be trading at low pe's most of the time
I see here a wonderful business at a fair price
:-)
and it falls on face :) adding.
Great stock for a horrible coffee!
:-)))
Buy IBM stock instead.
$7.00 USD for a coffee! really! talk about infaltion!
:-)
I stopped going to Starbucks, my own coffee is better. Perhaps a few times a year when I'm on the road. Here in Wash, DC they are letting homeless people occupy the stores. No, thanks. But this looks good from an investment point of view.
thanks for sharing, interesting
I striked.
Thanks for sharing
I don’t think Starbucks will do good for a while. Many countries have communities boycotting and they’ve had to close stores in many countries
Starbucks will trade for 110-120 witchin 12 months. Mark this on your calendar
thanks for sharing!
Timing the market- Sven shame on you. Unionized, expensive product, loads of competition from big players like MickyD. :-) Pass.
I don't know where you would see this as timing the market, but ok, whatever!
@@Value-Investing Please don't take my comment to strongly, I think you are amazing in your thought process. Thx you.
I’m never stepping foot in Starbucks again. They absolutely cannot make a decent cappuccino with oat milk. Local cafes for the win!
thanks for sharing!
This comparison of the 7usd Starbucks coffee vs your few cent coffee at home is getting very boring. People doesn't go to Starbucks only for the coffee, often they bring laptop and spend few hours there, or just for socializing and see other people. Otherwise just lock yourself at home and never go out. You are gonna spend much less for sure 😂. Btw, in all the countries where I go to Starbucks: china, Italy, Thailand, stores are pretty clean. No idea in the US.
thanks for sharing Pietro
Bad coffee and horrible food.
:-)))
not a good deal yet, sorry
depends on your perspective:-)
Negative equity!
yes, due to buybacks, but yes, increases the risk!