Close Putin ally Shoigu fired as war costs could 'undo the Russian war effort' | Prof. Scott Lucas
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- Опубликовано: 12 май 2024
- “Russia is running an overheated economy…Belousov is being brought in because of those problems.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has fired his defence minister and close ally Sergei Shoigu, Prof. Scott Lucas from University College Dublin’s Clinton Institute explains how it is likely a move to end soaring war costs.
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I'm concerned about Shoigu's firing. Hopefully, the Russians have found someone equally incompetent to take over the role.
I think Zaluzhny is available.
@@xbmcxbmc5680 LOL. Zaluzhny ran circles around the russian army command, with very limited resources. The russian army is a joke.
Security Cauncil is the real Supreme decision maker in Russia... This dude knows nothing🤪
Real competence is a danger to Putin, so I wouldn't count on Shoigu's replacement being a threat. If they *are* competent, they'll become popular with the people, and Putin will remove them anyway
@@joshpayne2600 But on the other hand, they want to win the war right? A bit like Zhukov. Because he was successful, he was considered a threat, and yet Stalin needed him. It goes back to the myth of Achilles. You need the successful warrior or general, as long as you can appropriate the victories for yourself.
Maybe best to stay on the ground floor Shoigu...
And no cups of tea from strangers...
@@captainhadd0ck Or closed umbrellas 🌂 from strangers
Stay away from tea and windows Shoigu. 😂
and door handles.
And wash his own underwear.
@@cyclewisconsin105Yes!
@@MrLordingit 🤣🤣😂😂
Happy to be able to listen to a professional, facts-based, unbiased analysis - pretty rare these days.
Imagine a man with zero military experience becomes a general 😂.
Minister of defence
You just need to look at UK
Same show .Only one ( Ben Wallace) out of 7 since Tories got to power with military background
It’s a gift to Ukraine 🇺🇦
@@goenzoy712 None of them appointed themselves to the highest military rank complete with fake uniform and fake medals.
@@goenzoy712None of them trotted around in funny hats and chests full of medals though
Only in Russia
Should Shoigu defect, or just stay away from windows above the ground floor?
It’s like Hotel California, ya know? You can check out any time you like, etc etc etc
"To stay away from window, or not stay away from window, that is question!"
As a true Russian he decides against his better judgement & walks towards a window.
Steps on a banana peel on the ground, get's brutaly catapulted outside, splatteres against the wall of the building across the street, right after releasing Wilhelm Scream.
GRU: 😏 "Perfect. Everyone will believe was surprise accident, sad, so sad..."
Belousov got the job for the same reason Shoigu did, because he is not likely to turn the military against Putin. Shoigu may have seemed like an awful choice but he was the safe bet.
In the former Soviet Union the Military, Top Party Brass, and KGB were pitted against each other. It is why people like Putin never made it into the top ranks of KGB, and why Marshals, Generals, Admirals, and Vice Admirals were put into positions that they had no real reason in holding. Other than they were considered too weak to raise against the Top Party Brass.
Great Interviewee. Thanks
Shoigu has been given a nice cup of tea with window view
This is all smoke and mirrors. Making a conclusion of it is crazy.
Exactly!! Russia plays to what little America knows about it, true or not.
If I was him i'd shy away from plane and train rides, champagne, etc.
Shoigu just got stabbed in the back by the man he has chained himself to. Shoigu is;was(?) one of Putin’s closest inner circle. The last time Shoigu was in the news, Wagner Group leader, aka murders R us, Prigozhin tried to coup Shoigu out of existence and instead spent his last moments in a plane crash. Well, it was more original that high rise window walking. If this is any indication, Putin must be freaking out because he’s making some crazy decisions, flopping around panicking, betraying an old, loyal friend like Sergio. It just doesn’t bode well for the person who just re elected himself for a 6th stunning term as President. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy🍿🍿🍿
They are all back stabbers when the chips are down, Shoigu was kept as the main fall guy, he still is, Gerasimov if he still exists, is the second fall guy and his relationship with the new minister will be entertaining no doubt, either because he is alive and possibly still reporting to Shoigu for instructions, or not alive at all which should in normal circumstances would create more problems but not in Russia, one expects him not to last long in his current post with the new boss either way!?!
huh? Shoigu was promoted, to Secretary of the Security Council, which is a position of more power, and puts him closer to Putin in terms of succession...
Putin needs his war effort to get real effective real fast. Shoigu is likely out of ideas. But keep in mind that Putin was never supposed to be in this position. Ukraine would fall. EU would cower. NATO would fracture and the US would lose interest in Europe. All of that turned out to be wrong. This might be a clue that Putin could be getting out of the Denial phase and moving on to Anger. When Trump loses the election he'll be moving on to Bargaining phase. 😆
We must see the economic, technological and military “power” of Russia in perspective. Russia is indeed a huge country in square km, but only has (a declining) 144 million inhabitants (Mexico 128 million, Japan 123 million). This is about 30% of USA or Eurozone. The GDP of Russia however is only 4% of the GDP of the Eurozone + USA, this is equal to the GDP of the small countries Belgium + Netherlands. And less than the GDP of the state of California. Relatively (per capita) the GDP of Russia is very low. Beside that the economy of Russia has signs of a 3th world economy. Half of the income is coming from oil & gas. Based on this, Russia isn’t a world power. And for sure, it isn’t a economic power. This is the reason they can’t build up and maintain a big army. The army they have is far beyond normal proportions in relation to their GDP. This hurts their budgets and prosperity permanently. In this perspective, Russia is just a megalomaniac dictatorship with a huge inferiority complex and dangerous ambitions. The path they chose will be their downfall.
Well said
Even if Russia invaded every city in Ukraine , how could Russia control the country if millions and millions of people living in Ukraine don't want the invaders there, it is an impossible task .With a complete invasion of Ukraine , Russia would need soldiers and police standing in every street of the country to control the population and that would be impossible as Russia does not have enough soldiers to take long term control of Ukraine .
Putin is wasting the lives of a huge amount of people and wasting billions of dollars of money that could be spent in a better way to improve the lives of Russians .
With a leader who's made a series of mistakes including underestimating Ukraine, NATO, the EU, and the US. Putin thought the West would cower, Ukraine would fall over, Germany would submit to energy blackmail, and the US would walk away. That's why the initial invasion lacked logistics, secure comms, an air campaign, and informed troops.
Putin thought he could realign Europe and reestablish Russia as leader in a counter-Western bipolar order. Only takers seem to be Iran and North Korea. China and India appear to be passing on that offer.
It's unfortunate because what Russia needs is integration into Europe. They have the commodities that Europe needs. It would be a Win-Win. But Putin wants the Soviet Empire back and that means control over the governments of Eastern Europe. I suspect Trump and Brexit gave Putin confidence this would be possible.
Yes, but when has the butcher PuPu ever listened to logic?
Comparing Russian GDP to the Eurozone and USA is not the best measure. You need to take purchasing power parity into account when Russia doesn’t fare as badly.
Pooptin pooping himself
A finance officer in charge of military, ... anything, is not good news for Soldiers.
Well, another on to join the 3rd floor jump contest, Putin turns full Stalin II
Shoy-Goo changes his name to Shoy-Gone. 😆
Good interview. I do despise how you open the pod cast with some key comment from the speaker and then subject your listeners to sitting through it a second time in the broader discussion.
I agree. I really hate this unnecessary gimmick too
Me too
How Scott Lucas with such level of understanding can be a professor?
I'm surprised there is so little comment on Shoigu's new job - he has replaced a hard-line Putin supporter and FSB colleague. Does this indicate Putin is coming to the view that the FSB messed up on intelligence at the beginning of the war? Starting to distrust the FSB could kick of a whole load of rivalries at the top which could be bad news for Putin.
because people just swallow whatever b.s. is served up. Shoigu wasnt fired, he was promoted to a more powerful position.
FSB certainly has a lot to answer for but I suspect their feeding Putin intel that aligns with his preconceived worldview. He clearly believes his disinfo and subversion operations are effective.
The FSB have failed Putin in so many ways. Including giving Putin the assurance that Ukraine could be Occupied with in Week, before the Special Military Operation started. Some other issues with the FSB, are exactly the same reasons that Shoigu got his job as Defense Minister to begin with. It a sideways promotion, not a demotion as many claim. It is position that Shoigu still held in high confidence in Putin eyes.
Thank you Professor !
That new guy looks like he's excellent at telling the boss why other people are wrong
Good analysis
There was interwebs chatter that Russian 45th Guard Spetsnaz Division located in Moscow, stated if General Shoigu and other generals are replaced, they will start a coup. That was approximately 9 days ago.
Let's wait and see then.
Great interview
Shoigu's deputy General was recently arrested in full Uniform, in his Office, by the FSB on charges of corruption, theft, embezzlement.... For all his own corruption, Putin has to be seen as not letting Shoigu get away with saying that he wasn't aware of his deputy General's dodgy activities.
Nonsense. Shoigu has failed the dear leader, and usually that would not matter, but the success of the war is now in doubt. Think how scared Pootin is that he is sidelining an old loyal buddy. Looking good for Ukraine. Hopefully the new guy is a dud as well.
@@ronthered138🎯🎯🎯
And we know Putin would never ever plant evidence to create a false narrative to justify a plan, right, eh?
@@ronthered138
Excuse me..."nonsense"..!?
Not really up to speed with current events are you.
The General that answered directly to Shoigu was arrested in his Office, marched directly to a hearing and charged with corruption, Jake Broe reported on it, Artur Rehi reported on it, your pompous self-agrandising dismissiveness is truly revolting, Putin isn't emotionally beholden to his Staff, seriously, do you actually think he is so feeble that he is conflicted over firing Shoigu, their relationship has been strained for years, an example of which was evidenced by Putin having utterly resented Shoigu for insisting that he attend the wounded in a Hospital with State Television present. Instead of parasitizing someone else's comment just to insist on grandstanding your own version of events, why don't you write your comment in its own space, what you wrote is just speculative hyperbole which you have tried to pass off as a legitimate argument, it has absolutely zero merit, it is just a lyrical inference. I'll give you a heads up, read Carl Sagan, it oughta help you gain some insight into exactly how inconsequential and ineffective your petty need for relevance truly is.
@@ronthered138
Putin has deemed the future prosperity and very sanctity of millions of people's lives, to be subordinate to the interests of the Russian Federation and his demented ambitions, in accordance with his viciously depraved prejudice and sadistic persecution of not only the Ukrainian people, but all those who have chosen to embrace a progressive self determination, free from Russian oppression, tyranny and control, including his own Countrymen. For a Man of his stature and station in life, with his responsibilities, to be threatening Nuclear oblivion with the attitude that he won't be affected, is beyond diabolical arrogance, it is f-cking insane...!!!
Thanks!
Someone who is honest has no future anywhere in Russian government.
Nobody
Russia: oh you have economic background, come be a military general 😂😂
Google Robert McNamara. While he did serve in the Air Force during WWII it wasn't in a combat capacity. He was the longest serving SecDef. His specialty was analytics.
unfortunately, the defense minister's primary role is not to be a general but to ensure that the military has what it needs to be effective. Which is why an economist would actually be really successful there. This is very bad for us if this new guy is competent. It might behoove us if an "accident" befell him.
It's pretty clear Putin is flailing right now. but this guy sure seems to know what' he's talking about, it's refreshing
Shoigu was promoted He is the head of security council ,
You think that's a promotion 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@MargotDobbie sure, it is The head of Security council coordinates the work of MoD, FSB and other services .
No, #3, as Secretary of SCRF. Yes, a promotion, as this will become a dictatorship council, with life-long appointments, all subject to Putin's rule, elections not needed anymore.
@@user-yi8rt5zq9e it's a figure head role for those that don't have power but are still on the inside.
Wonderful analysis of the replacement of Shogu, its cause and the ramifications.😊
If it was a sacking he wouldn't be placed in the security council he would be sent to africa or something.
😅 "To stay away from window, or not stay away from window, that is question!"
As a true Russian he decides against his better judgement & walks towards a window.
Steps on a banana peel on the ground, get's brutaly catapulted outside, splatteres against the wall of the building across the street, right after releasing Wilhelm Scream.
GRU: 😏 "Perfect. Everyone will believe was surprise accident, sad, so sad..."
pretty sure shoigu could fund the war for 6-12 months with what he's stolen.
Ops! He's been promoted 😂
*promotion*
_noun_
1. activity that supports or provides the fact of being raised in position or rank, e.g. _"Did you hear the news? Shoigu got sacked into becoming Secretary of the Security Council. Russia are finished now!!"_
If I was shoigu I'd stay away from windows. Especially those on planes and choppers.
Replacing incompetent Shoigu with a bean counter who never served.....That sure gonna go well for Z army..
It has struck me that Putin doesn't have a mouth, just a small straight line. That's because he's absolutely a miserable person. This new minister has the same. No mouth, just a tiny pitiful line. No emotion, no soul, no mouth 😊
Calling trump to help pootin
Yeah he already did that when he was in office…plus his wife, what’s her name melanoma, is his Russian handler and she’s still employed by the Kremlin while her anchor baby comes of age.
🤷🏼♀️
Orcs...
‘dehumanisation’ ... you’ve successfully made it to around the half way mark on the ‘Ten Stages of Genocide’ .... well done you ! 😂
How is the promotion of someone, who had been publicly thinking about resigning even before the Ukraine war, to head of national security... a "sacking"?
These politically motivated hot-takes on Ukraine (Russia is going bankrupt in a year! Russia is out of missiles! etc...) are problematic. Not just because they're false, but because they create public expectations that Ukraine is doing better than it is. Whenever UA fails to live up to those (unrealistic) expectations set by networks and pieces like this, public opinion in the west turns against it more than it (rationally) should, because they're perceived as underperforming when they're actually doing about as well as one could reasonably hope.
The consequences of this, in terms of public support for continued/expanded funding in the US (and elsewhere) are far-reaching.
Painting everything in Ukraine as a Russian failure is /not/ beneficial to Ukraine.
FWIW, I say this as someone who absolutely believes that Russian aggression in Ukraine is unjustified, abhorrent, and needs to be stopped. But bias in media also needs to be stopped. It's like people don't even consider what the repercussions of their words could be....
What else can you expect from someone who is employed by the 'Clinton Institute'?
Watch the windows!!
🇺🇦❤🇺🇦❤🇺🇦❤💪👍🇬🇧💪❤🇺🇦
So basically hes put an accountant in charge of the military
Shoigu being fired is incorrect - it’s just misreported. Shoigu is a competent, hard working Russian, a mean guy, a hard nosed militarist..
Wow.
Hes a good friend of Putin .
Only Putin is to blame.
He is not been sacked
Correct. Security Council will end up running the President and Duma, with Putin life-long as Chairman. Hopefully, that will be a very short time.
It will be hard to find a replacement of Shoigu with equal incompetence.
How's UK going?
Putin continues to rearrange deck chairs on his sinking Titanic
When does he fall out of a window and where does the new guy find the 3 Trillion its cost so far?
This person will squeeze Russia 's economy dry like a lemon 🍋 😂😂😂😂.
He knows it is no problem because the west will support Russia with billions of dollars so they get back on their foot
Russia does not have 34 trillion$ in debt
@@marinats5873 - us dollar are strong as ever while russian rubles worthless, all the harping about American depth are russian disinformation
More from Prof. Lucas
Nooo concessions.
This is terrible news...Shoigus incompetence has been Ukraine's best ally
Can't afford to have Shoigu leeching all the money for his own personal gain anymore?
Or is it just someone else's turn to stick their nose in the Russian citizens' trough?
As Putin is about to visit China, I will take this personnel arrangement as a political signal or hint.
I don't if anyone in Britain has noticed but a litre of petrol in Russia is 43 pence and in Britain you can put £1:20 on that. Please stop telling us how bad Russia is doing when it's obvious that the backside of Britain is falling out.
"Nice accomodation", in Russia that means an apartment with a window and some tea.
Don t drink the green tea .
Albert Speer was a architect did manage to increase productivity and war prolonging producing more amonution than previous years
Shoigu was neutralized for reasons that have very little to do with the war.
There were hints of Shoigu going away, his friend generals were arrested for corruption, Polish channel Kremlinka talked about such possibility for a month at least.
❤Ukrainian ❤
_"Inflation is going up"_
Reality: the annual inflation rate in Russia remained steady at a one-year peak of 7.7%
Shoigu should stay away from windows.
He needs a trotski one that can manage all components and ia a strategist
Shoigu was promoted to head up the security council. That's actually a position that has substantial influence.
Scott Lucas from the Clinton Institute? That explains the stupidity.
No, #3, Secreatry. But yes, it is a promotion.
huh? Shoigu wasnt sacked, he promoted to a higher position. He has been promoted to Secretary of the Security Council, which actually puts him closer to Putin in terms of power.
Shhhh. Don't tell Scott Lucas. He needs to keep spinning fairy tales for the Clinton Institute and Times radio.
Which actually places him 3rd in line to replace Putin under the former Soviet Unions standards. Which the current Russia Federation government has been emulating more and more as Putin remains in charge.
No room for truth here. comrade.
Where is Sokolov???
In Africa heading the new and improved Wagner Group which isn't called Wagner anymore but it conducts similar operations.
@@EvanMichael-mj5tf Yah sure that is the best job for old admirals: leading gold stealing mercenaries. Okidoki
Shoigu wasn't sacked. Shoigu was transferred. Patrushev was sacked. Nobody is safe around Darth Vladimir. "Apology accepted, Secretary Patrushev. General Shoigu, you are now in charge." It's the blame game, only the person to blame is really Darth Vladimir.
Pretty soon there will be a response from the Russian populace..Their boys dieing in thousands,economy relying on war footing, refineries going up in smoke and on and on. Surely their patience has to end
Putin is better at bullying Russians than he is at conquering other countries.
😂😂😂😂
Nope. You're expecting chickens to rise up against Wolf.
@@collinsoposh7835 thank you, and they did try to stop him long ago, and they remember what happened, savagery, death and imprisonment
They’re cowards.
Work on your audio. I cannot hear the interview.
Actualy,Shoigu was promoted to second place in command just behind Putin in directorate of all security services.To exept that possition he has to resign to previus possition.
Sacked - "sewn into a sack and thrown out a window"
The Ukrainian commander responsible for the northeastern Kharkiv frontline has been replaced after Russia launched a surprise offensive, a military spokesperson said on Monday.
Nazar Voloshyn told RBC-Ukraine media that the decision to appoint Brigadier General Mykhailo Drapatyi to the position was taken on May 11. He gave no reason for the decision.
It comes amid reports that Ukrainian defences were “built in the wrong place” to halt Russia’s Kharkiv offensive.
Shoigu needs to stay well away from open windows.
Fired? 🤣🤣 you mean promoted??
Russia's economy is already toast. Belousov can't bring it back.
‘tHE tiMEs’ says ‘fired’, whilst everyone else says ‘promoted’ ? 🤔
🥴🤦🏽♂️🤡
Kyiv in three days is now Kyiv in (maybe) three decades. Rock on, Vlade, rock on.
Putin is an epic bungler.
two years worth of misappropriating quotes is epic 😂
@lw1zfog FSB telling the little man 3 days to Kyiv is epic. And the little bungler thought he could do it is epic. Two years of bot work at the ISA is epic and laughably obvious.
@@jim2376 even the facTcHEcKERZ have had to attribute that claim to Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger.
are you sure you’re ok down there ?
Probably doesn't indicate much. Being defense minister for 10 years of war takes a toll, especially on an old man. Putin's been very loyal to Shoigu. Football teams changes coaches after just a couple loosing seasons. Imagine nearly 500,000 causalities and hundreds of billions of dollars spent on so little real estate.
LoL, he was effectively promoted 😂
Unexpected? No, this was expected after Russian deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov was charged with corruption. Konstantin at "inside russia" brought this up more than 2 weeks ago, saying this was just a step to get closer to bringing down Shoigu. He was right, indeed.
wait wait wait hold on Russia is running out of money?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
But they are winning unfortunatley.
Debatable
Yeah, Shoigu was sacked and followed Putin to Beijing 😂
The author, or the contributing authors, and the narrator might feel rather smug in this presentation. First, it was well organized. Secondly, the vocabulary was perfect in making the presentation accessible for everyone to understand. Thirdly, the detail in understanding of the subject matter is strong. Fourthly, he arguments presented for the purpose of supporting the thesis are excellent. Fifthly, the narrator comes across as someone who sounds as though he knows what he is talking about without a script. Finally, it is apparent that his background of his subject matter is strong and he possesses vast amounts of information that he has analyzed from many different angles and layers. The only drawback is that it is primary seen through rose glasses of the West’s view. Nonetheless, I liked it.
It was a lot of verbose BSing and fairy tales.
Was he fired? Or was he PROMOTED? Does his new position not bring him more power and influence?
Yes a promotion. Americans keep trying to judge Russian things (or anything, for that matter) based on American standards, values and perceptions. Doesn't apply to anything Russian.
He was not sacked. He's now in charge of the entire Military-Industrial comples of Russia, a job for which he's well-suited. he's an engineer & knows exactly what the Army needs from the supply end of the chain. He's like the National Security Advisor (i.e. Sullivan, or Kissinger). Not exactly 'sacked'. Facts please
Shoigu gets promoted and times radio calls it 'fired' SMH
Fake news
You want to work for a murderer?
Shoigu was not sacked what if he requested Putin to be redeployed elsewhere.
If the Minister of Defence (Offence) runs the military economy, who actually leads Russia's armed forces?
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🏴☠️
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Promoted hes now first Seceratary of the security council, a similar position to Jake Sullivan
Hmmm... Jake Sullivan's position is lower-ranking than that of Lloyd Austin... So, if The US Defense Secretary (Austin) had been made National Security Adviser, that would have been a demotion. Just like what happened to Shigou...