If Baba was an American company and it had done those buybacks it would be considered a very wise decision. Defining that as desperate move defines her bias.
I don't know about you guys, but since there is a fear therefore there is opportunity. Now everybody thinks china in not investable, this can turn around with a snap of a finger. The good thing is that you are getting paid with them to wait.
I am loading up some slowly. So far 12% of my portfolio, will add more to 20% of my portfolio. I will then hold them for 10 years hopefully. I know it’s kind of a gamble but it is worth it
What separates Chinas risk from for example US stocks risk is that US stocks there is a fundamental risk. Meaning using fundamentals to determine if the investment is risky or not. With China it’s a geopolitical risk. Meaning the risk involves the government and geopolitical relations with the US and China. It seems like there are a lot of newbie investor’s who just can’t grasp this and just look at the fundamentals and say its buy. I am sure some people did that with Russian stocks too until they invaded Ukraine and your investment gets wiped out. This is regardless if those stocks by the fundamentals were considered “cheap”.
As a foreigner investing in China I like hearing that the government in China is not printing money and doing what America is doing. I believe the currency in China will have more value in the future compared to the Dollar and Im getting more value for my money by Buying Chinese stocks. Even with a shrinking population the population is still substantially larger than other markets. Hearing that the people in China are sitting on savings and not spending lavishly does tell me that they are not broke or debt ridden like American consumers, I believe in time the chinese consumer will consistently start to spend again and probably be a more stable consumer market than other countries.
It is tricky that people in china be averaged in term of statistics. We can see the savings growth trend but it not mean a lot potentail costomers😂. A little bit precentage of population in china have the savings that why it go deflation😅.
all the risks she mentioned regarding BABA are still there for PDD too, the only difference is that PDD had a good price action in the last year, that's why she like PDD????!!!!! that's weird! if she thinks chinese stocks are not investable because they are chinese, then all of them plz!
im happy she gave you a shout out for all the work you do. cash flow investing club is the best. been following for years. keep doing great things and of course Thank you.
Thank you for the insights. Always something to learn. Questions I have are: 1) How does this compare relatively? -> The US debt situation does not look sustainable to me. 2) Have you ever been to China? I find the US sentiment towards China quite negative to be honest with you. Your commenting is framed so negative. They are a long term oriented culture. They have not used the Bazooka to stimulate the economy. -> They still have it as a back up to use. 3) I agree on BABA strategy struggles, but disagree on the buy backs comment. I price/FCF of 5 valuation? Buy back for the whole net cash position, please!!! 4) Thank you for the comments on PDD and the difference with Ailexpress. I see visibility in Europe of Temu. Need to look the potential and relative size of this compared to PDDs valuation. 5) India: I have seen this film before… as long as India is not able to sort out its infrastructure I remain sceptical, I am sorry.
The big problem I have with China is you aren't investing in Equities as its not allowed. Instead you are "investing" in VIE's that are shaky at best and do not confer ownership of the business. Capital controls in China also make it a gamble on whether you will see the cash flows the VIE's claim you have.
There have been no issues with VIE's so far, and the communist party recently reaffirmed that they support them. Plus, the Hong Kong exchange also has them, so it would be really destructive for them if they decided to do something against VIE's.
BABA has dividends, large buybacks and significant international expansion driven by cashflows mostly derived from a depressed domestic consumer economy? Imagine if the consumer unlocks their savings, more and more citizens continue to come out of poverty, and the new management team executes like they have so far. Seems like an opportunity there for an allocation if your time horizon is 3-5 years.
I believe lower population will result in lower consumption necessarily, as the country moves towards being more tech reliant its productivity could lead to higher income per capita and that will lead to economic growth.
I noticed that Cameron made several bigoted comments about China definitely let his bias get in the way of business. I’ll have to unfollow but will follow Ayesha. She seems a lot more level headed.
thanks, this is a nice video. In short, I think the Chinese market is tradeable but uninvestable. originally, in 2020, I think the macroeconomic environment could remain strong, until 2025, but only due to the momentum, but long-term will be in big trouble. Mainly because of population decline, high debt, and other system problems. But sadly, I underestimate how "stupid" the existing top leader is. Right now, economics is not a priority for the existing government, but so call "political security", AKA, how to make sure Xi's ass can sit at that chair as long as it can, at the expense of everything. right now, the Chinese government already lost the ability of "good governance", all decisions have to be made by an illiteracy leader. for everyone else in the government, only two things they care able, how to kiss Xi's ass to protect their position, and how to rob as much as they can when they are in position.
this is just idiotic, if China's economy goes downhill there very much will be political pressure. Xi obviously has a vested interest in China's economy. Furthermore, China's economy has grown significantly more than the USA's during Xi's time in office.
I don't think regular people in China have money. A lot of people who have money sold their properties and planning to leave the country. When this happens, buyer get a loan from the bank, while the seller get the cash and convert it to deposit. That's why there is a huge shot up in the deposit because it is hard to get RMB out of the country. You won't see these money gets spent either because these people are looking to leave the country or already left. Foreign investors only looking at the numbers just don't understand the dynamics.
Fear of China is completely unfounded. A lot of people that haven't been there just do not understand. Let's be RATIONAL... Would you rather invest in Country A) with 7% GDP growth and party will stay the same over the next decade and have similar policies or Country B) with 2% GDP growth and 2 different parties with wildy different policies.
Not only that. China has been more pro-market than many other developed countries. Just look at China 20 years ago and now. Without foreign money inflows, it would have been almost impossible.
Let's go and invest to the very sure US market at extreme valuations and not china at bargain valuations I believe your guest's ancestors are based in Mumbai , she wants money to flow to India and she is biased towards China What is this argument even of savers not spending the money? I think this concern is completely ridiculous, why us long term investors care about Chinese people not spending? At some point in the future they WILL spend. You keep saying China is uncertain and uninventable, the same point could have been said during the first months of covid in 2020 Nobody knew what would happen, wow and behold after couple of months sp went to all time high. Investing is a game of probabilities I believe in the next 10 years China will be here and will keep growing and at this valuations exposing yourself to China is a good decision.
I think she doesnt know what shes talking about. You should think straight and stop overthinking. A cheap stock with strong fcf is a great buy. The rationale shouldnt change just because price has been heavily discounted for long enough..
@@CstewartCFA Jokes aside - Curious your thoughts on the reasoning behind super investors taking recent positions in BABA - Soros, Burry, Tepper, Cohen, Griffin even Howard Marks - I agree with you About the risks with China, I just find it odd why so many are continuing to buy relative portioned positions. Although Druck got out! Would you assume this is swing trading motive? Basically, tell me what everything is thinking - Hahaha!
If Baba was an American company and it had done those buybacks it would be considered a very wise decision. Defining that as desperate move defines her bias.
Also, according to last BABA's earnings, they seem to me far from being desperate
They have authorized over 10% buyback of the company. Seems me the that China is at its highest pessimism.
I don't know about you guys, but since there is a fear therefore there is opportunity. Now everybody thinks china in not investable, this can turn around with a snap of a finger. The good thing is that you are getting paid with them to wait.
Good luck, I can’t square the risk
I am loading up some slowly. So far 12% of my portfolio, will add more to 20% of my portfolio. I will then hold them for 10 years hopefully. I know it’s kind of a gamble but it is worth it
Yes, and things can get even worse with the snap of one dictator’s finger. There is no rule of law, or checks and balances, therefore I can’t invest.
@@magalengoonly dummies claim China is a dictatorship
What separates Chinas risk from for example US stocks risk is that US stocks there is a fundamental risk. Meaning using fundamentals to determine if the investment is risky or not. With China it’s a geopolitical risk. Meaning the risk involves the government and geopolitical relations with the US and China. It seems like there are a lot of newbie investor’s who just can’t grasp this and just look at the fundamentals and say its buy. I am sure some people did that with Russian stocks too until they invaded Ukraine and your investment gets wiped out. This is regardless if those stocks by the fundamentals were considered “cheap”.
Wonderful podcast, I want to see more guests like Ayesha. She was very personable!
Great presentation, great charts, and a great discussion 👍 🎉
Thank you both for this very informative video.
It was very informative and interesting. Thanks a lot for you and your guest!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great video, sir. I love your other videos but keep doing more like these as well.
As a foreigner investing in China I like hearing that the government in China is not printing money and doing what America is doing. I believe the currency in China will have more value in the future compared to the Dollar and Im getting more value for my money by Buying Chinese stocks. Even with a shrinking population the population is still substantially larger than other markets.
Hearing that the people in China are sitting on savings and not spending lavishly does tell me that they are not broke or debt ridden like American consumers, I believe in time the chinese consumer will consistently start to spend again and probably be a more stable consumer market than other countries.
It is tricky that people in china be averaged in term of statistics. We can see the savings growth trend but it not mean a lot potentail costomers😂. A little bit precentage of population in china have the savings that why it go deflation😅.
If we made a review of US macro economy post tech bubble or 08, would US stock market then good like a good time to invest?
all the risks she mentioned regarding BABA are still there for PDD too, the only difference is that PDD had a good price action in the last year, that's why she like PDD????!!!!! that's weird! if she thinks chinese stocks are not investable because they are chinese, then all of them plz!
reak of desperation? Returning value to shareholders is desperation now? What is she talking about? It's damned if they do and damned if they don't...
Pesimissm
im happy she gave you a shout out for all the work you do. cash flow investing club is the best. been following for years. keep doing great things and of course Thank you.
So cool! Awesome!!! ❤
Cameron, thank you once again for having me on the channel to share some of MacroVisor's research and views. It really was such a great experience.
Thank you, it was wonderful
thank you for this one!
Thank you for the insights. Always something to learn. Questions I have are: 1) How does this compare relatively? -> The US debt situation does not look sustainable to me. 2) Have you ever been to China? I find the US sentiment towards China quite negative to be honest with you. Your commenting is framed so negative. They are a long term oriented culture. They have not used the Bazooka to stimulate the economy. -> They still have it as a back up to use. 3) I agree on BABA strategy struggles, but disagree on the buy backs comment. I price/FCF of 5 valuation? Buy back for the whole net cash position, please!!! 4) Thank you for the comments on PDD and the difference with Ailexpress. I see visibility in Europe of Temu. Need to look the potential and relative size of this compared to PDDs valuation. 5) India: I have seen this film before… as long as India is not able to sort out its infrastructure I remain sceptical, I am sorry.
Great Interview ❤
Let’s go!
Very insightful, thank you Cameron and Ayesha!
Great to get that color on China, thanks Cameron, and to Ayesha!
Our pleasure!
Liked, please do a video on UPS. thanks
The big problem I have with China is you aren't investing in Equities as its not allowed. Instead you are "investing" in VIE's that are shaky at best and do not confer ownership of the business. Capital controls in China also make it a gamble on whether you will see the cash flows the VIE's claim you have.
what about dividends?
There have been no issues with VIE's so far, and the communist party recently reaffirmed that they support them. Plus, the Hong Kong exchange also has them, so it would be really destructive for them if they decided to do something against VIE's.
@@RafitoMembrozaGlad the affirmation from the Communist Party was all it took for you to trust them lol
When stock dropped everything become problems. When they rise every problem magically vanish.
Yes.
I have the most respect for you & what you give to your audience! Pure numbers ! I have learned so much from you
Thanks
Thank you for the comment and watching
BABA has dividends, large buybacks and significant international expansion driven by cashflows mostly derived from a depressed domestic consumer economy? Imagine if the consumer unlocks their savings, more and more citizens continue to come out of poverty, and the new management team executes like they have so far. Seems like an opportunity there for an allocation if your time horizon is 3-5 years.
I invested in Chinese stocks and it’s the biggest mistake I made in my investment journey…. Even if it’s super undervalued don’t even think about it
I believe lower population will result in lower consumption necessarily, as the country moves towards being more tech reliant its productivity could lead to higher income per capita and that will lead to economic growth.
Pessimism can bring great opportunity..
I noticed that Cameron made several bigoted comments about China definitely let his bias get in the way of business. I’ll have to unfollow but will follow Ayesha. She seems a lot more level headed.
When you parrot anti-China crackpot Kyle Bass, that should be expected
thanks, this is a nice video. In short, I think the Chinese market is tradeable but uninvestable. originally, in 2020, I think the macroeconomic environment could remain strong, until 2025, but only due to the momentum, but long-term will be in big trouble. Mainly because of population decline, high debt, and other system problems. But sadly, I underestimate how "stupid" the existing top leader is.
Right now, economics is not a priority for the existing government, but so call "political security", AKA, how to make sure Xi's ass can sit at that chair as long as it can, at the expense of everything. right now, the Chinese government already lost the ability of "good governance", all decisions have to be made by an illiteracy leader. for everyone else in the government, only two things they care able, how to kiss Xi's ass to protect their position, and how to rob as much as they can when they are in position.
this is just idiotic, if China's economy goes downhill there very much will be political pressure. Xi obviously has a vested interest in China's economy. Furthermore, China's economy has grown significantly more than the USA's during Xi's time in office.
And there is $BABA heavy buybacks
Cameron thanks a lot for teaching me investing.
You are not aware how much people like me getting benefited from your channel.
Happy to hear that!
I don't think regular people in China have money. A lot of people who have money sold their properties and planning to leave the country. When this happens, buyer get a loan from the bank, while the seller get the cash and convert it to deposit. That's why there is a huge shot up in the deposit because it is hard to get RMB out of the country. You won't see these money gets spent either because these people are looking to leave the country or already left. Foreign investors only looking at the numbers just don't understand the dynamics.
Charlie Munger lived to 99 and even that wasn’t long enough to see his BABA break even.
Fear of China is completely unfounded. A lot of people that haven't been there just do not understand. Let's be RATIONAL... Would you rather invest in Country A) with 7% GDP growth and party will stay the same over the next decade and have similar policies or Country B) with 2% GDP growth and 2 different parties with wildy different policies.
I’ve been to china. Love it!
I don’t know how to quantify the risk of the CCP to an outsider. So I pass.
Not only that. China has been more pro-market than many other developed countries. Just look at China 20 years ago and now. Without foreign money inflows, it would have been almost impossible.
exactly "communist" china also is more pro-business as labor unions are not a thing there as they are in the west
@@CstewartCFACPC*
@@jeffjones114More ignorant think tank nonsense
China is not managing her economy for the West...or her stock market😂😂😂
Yes. Correct
No f'ing way babe wake up CAMERON COLAB!!!!!!
stop
Let's go and invest to the very sure US market at extreme valuations and not china at bargain valuations
I believe your guest's ancestors are based in Mumbai , she wants money to flow to India and she is biased towards China
What is this argument even of savers not spending the money? I think this concern is completely ridiculous, why us
long term investors care about Chinese people not spending? At some point in the future they WILL spend.
You keep saying China is uncertain and uninventable, the same point could have been said during the first months of covid in 2020
Nobody knew what would happen, wow and behold after couple of months sp went to all time high. Investing is a game of probabilities
I believe in the next 10 years China will be here and will keep growing and at this valuations exposing yourself to China is a good decision.
This
So she likes the high multiples of PDD but not the low multiples on JD or Baba, referencing China risks for the latter and not the former 😂
I think she doesnt know what shes talking about. You should think straight and stop overthinking. A cheap stock with strong fcf is a great buy. The rationale shouldnt change just because price has been heavily discounted for long enough..
So, all in on BABA - right?
Hahahaha. Only if you move to china.
@@CstewartCFA Jokes aside - Curious your thoughts on the reasoning behind super investors taking recent positions in BABA - Soros, Burry, Tepper, Cohen, Griffin even Howard Marks - I agree with you About the risks with China, I just find it odd why so many are continuing to buy relative portioned positions. Although Druck got out! Would you assume this is swing trading motive? Basically, tell me what everything is thinking - Hahaha!