Black Swan Author Taleb on Fragility of Markets, Political Risk, AI
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 1 янв 2025
- Nassim Taleb, Black Swan author and Universa Investments distinguished scientific advisor, talks about the fragility of markets, how to hedge against geopolitical risks and artificial intelligence. He's on "Bloomberg Markets."
--------
More on Bloomberg Television and Markets
Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: tinyurl.com/ys...
Visit www.bloomberg.com for business news & analysis, up-to-the-minute market data, features, profiles and more.
Connect with Bloomberg Television on:
X: / bloombergtv
Facebook: / bloombergtelevision
Instagram: / bloombergtv
Connect with Bloomberg Business on:
X: / business
Facebook: / bloombergbusiness
Instagram: / bloombergbusiness
TikTok: www.tiktok.com...
Reddit: / bloomberg
LinkedIn: / bloomberg-news
More from Bloomberg:
Bloomberg Radio: / bloombergradio
Bloomberg Surveillance: / bsurveillance
Bloomberg Politics: / bpolitics
Bloomberg Originals: / bbgoriginals
Watch more on RUclips:
Bloomberg Technology: / @bloombergtechnology
Bloomberg Originals: / @business
Bloomberg Quicktake: / @bloombergquicktake
Bloomberg Espanol: / @bloomberg_espanol
Bloomberg Podcasts: / @bloombergpodcasts
Taleb making a precise and accurate prediction is the rarest black swan.
Where is the taleb video
He accurately predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis at a time when most others saw nothing wrong with the economy. It's definitely no easy feat.
@@alexanderskae5720 even a broken clock is wrong twice a day. People generally dont understand Taleb; his strategy is to always be hedged against extreme tail risk which is a heavy tax to pay when it consistently doesnt happen. he of course will be correct again at some point and will likely make bank from that event but you have to consider the "hedge tax" that was paid in the interim...was it worth it?
That's exactly his point of what is impossible to do??????? Don't do point estimates???
@@torosytoros I dont think this 'smart boy' original commenter has enough IQ to comprehend this
Perfect timing for upcomming Black Pterodactyl Event.
Every Taleb conversation:
“This could be a risk for markets. A major black swan event. But I have no idea when or if it will happen.”
that's the whole point
Where is the Taleb video?
thats basically every quant analyst
We are too big to fail…😂
It's almost as if black swans are by definition unpredictable...
Love how BLOOMBERG cut to interview Office as soon as he mentioned that Trump was right about not freezing assets because it would hurt dependency.
The problem with young reporters is that... they focus too much on finishing their list of questions, regardless of the interesting answers they may get along the way... A good example is around 2:50... Taleb made a good point about people transacting in USD, but storing money in other forms... The lady reporter, instead of pondering about it for a second, jumps straight onto another matter. She does that several times in this video and, each time, Talet imperceptibly frowns a bit before answering with a smile.
Yes, I have always wondered that almost inevitably the sharpest and most arresting answers still are treated as a by the by casual non-answer. Happens in many many (or all) interviews!
@@srinivaschillara4023 She's just following a script. She's not a journalist or even curious. He made a powerful point about the US/Europe confiscating Russian wealth, often held in dollars. This has caused confidence in the dollar to be irreparably and permanently damaged. So the worlds nations are now looking at other currencies for storage - gold, and trading in chinese currency for example. This will weaken the dollar and the USA's economic might around the world.
@@bodrulm1agreed, shes just doing her job
Nice point you made though
Market experts like Victoria Louisa Saylor have the ability to produce a portfolio for anyone that outperforms the market standard no matter the economic conditions of the market.
You dont need to be shocked, because I'm also a huge beneficiary of her
😊
The campaign shenanigans from both the red party and blue party is exactly what is stirring up this market panic. I have a little over 250k i wanted to put in the markets but I don’t know what direction to head now.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
Accurate asset allocation is crucial with an Experts guidance. I have 850k in equity, 275 cash earning 5.25 interest, 685k in 401k, 120k cash account, 80k in car assets ( paid off cars) Gold and silver bars. age is 48. My advisor helped me realign my portfolio to my risk tolerance and it boomed shortly.
Her name is ‘Marissa Lynn Babula’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Buy gold aleast gold have stored value in it when dollars falls be ready for anything. Don't wait gold price will go up up when more and more people will buy gold when dollars loses it value .Be smart.
Market is a black elephant right now.
A fantastic round up
My OCD has me stuck on his collar. He needs to adjust his collar.
It’s deliberate, don’t you get it?
That's a barbell strategy right there. With asymmetric payoff
He's written one "okay" book and now everyone thinks he does everything on purpose.
He should wear a proper suit with a tie. He look too American.
plz delete this comment for the good of other people... My ADHD didnt care about his collar until I read your comment.
@@fortunateone2712look at his forehead instead
This dude is still around!
As a U.S. citizen i owned russian oil stock but the United States blocked it and stole it from me.
Yup, whose going to keep buying US debt when they've proven themselves completely untrustworthy, seizing assets on a dime, weaponizing the dollar etc
Good
You invest in a country with a crazy dictator that might start a war? Bad investment
Assuming you're being honest and not just making up random crap, it's not stolen. It's inaccessible for now. It's the exact same thing as something being taken off the market. You still own it, genius. Did you receive payment from the Federal government for the market price of it? If you didn't then you still own it, dipshit. If you received payment in kind then stfu and stop whining about bs.
How are you so f*cking stupid and still blaming others for your failures? Grow the f*ck up and stop blaming others for your shortcomings and failures.
They were supposed to you knew the risk going in just as B.o.a & Chase did. Nothing new about Putin or his behavior
Being on alert for potential Black Swan’s means you didn’t read the book. In times of extreme asset valuations Black Swan’s are the least of your worries. Good old fashion predicable risks will suffice to destroy all that was gained.
Taleb came up with one big idea and has been shilling it ever since. Markets rise and fall so eventually he will be right, like a stopped clock gets the time right once a day.
He would have already been right if we didn’t print 50% of all circulating fiat within a decade
Industry experts like Sophia Verdekal O'neal have the ability to produce a portfolio for anyone that outperforms the market standard no matter the economic conditions of the market.
We have always been fragile, circa 9/11 not the 1st funds being frozen & won't be the last the market adjusts & always will until it won't
He said the same thing exactly one year ago on CNBC. We all know what happened in the last one year for the S&P500
Find a more skilled interviewer who actively listens, seeks to understand, and follows up instead of just rushing to the next set of questions. This reporter's interview technique is uncomfortable to watch.
The mag 7 are expensive, but the average stock is not. More people are investing because investing is mainstream and accessible. In addition, housing is expensive so young people are getting exposed to stocks and alternatives instead. Nassim is a permabear who will always fixate on the negatives.
Nassims job is to hedge and think about risks. It comes across as negative
So where is the full video
Everyone gets applauded for calling for a market collapse. They are never checked on it a year or two years afterward. We heard analysts calling for depression every year from 2011 to 2021.
The market's direction can swiftly change, with indexes frequently transitioning from a bear market to a bull market. It's tricky during election years. I recently inherited a lump sum and want to invest it wisely. Any tips or strategies to take advantage of this potential upswing?
imho, the average person finds it difficult outperforming the market on a day-to-day basis. In actuality, most people who have the necessary abilities are advisors with experience since the '08 crash and beyond
Agreed, I once downplayed the role of financial experts until suffering 40% portfolio loss amid 2020 lockdown, at once I consulted a pro and my portfolio was revamped thankfully. As of today, I'm just about 10% shy of my $1m goal after 100s of thousands invested.
bravo! mind sharing details of your advisor please? my job doesn't permit me the time to analyze stocks myself
Her name is ‘Monica Shawn Marti ’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thanks for the info. I searched for her full name and found her website right away. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before reaching out to her.
We are richer in paper dollar or digital money but we are poor in other physical gold
the facts are right the story is from crazy land
The large interests have been prepping for this crash for some time and will be able to sidestep market halts with huge price swings in nano-seconds.
Yeah... but not really
Someone needs to ask Taleb what the AVERAGE person can do to hedge themselves [cash? Gold? pay down mortgage? Just keep index funds?]
Vince Lanci said quite incisively that large Fund Managers will rebalance their portfolios and follow Sam Duncan Miller pivot from Tech to newmont etc in November in their new tax year from 1st November and when Earnings are published in November. So front run them and get some large cap Au Miners take off then Sell them in December or January and get some large benefits !
One of those guys whose Twitter feed makes you realize he is not insightful about most things.
He has a tendency to exaggerate. For example in this video he greatly exaggerates the impact of the US seizing a portion of Russian assets. It was done only in response to the most dangerous country in the world launching a full scale illegal, vicious invasion of a neighboring European country. If that invasion was not blocked, Russia would have taken over multiple other European countries. No other country except for China is going to try to do a similar thing, so they don’t need to fear seizures. There are several other reasons why more countries and individuals are moving towards more gold, And the one time rare seizure of assets of one country is not even among the top two reasons.
A bigger reason is inflation. Another big reason is The size of the US debt reduces the reliability of the dollar. another reason is that the US has the rights and the ability to print more money whenever it wants to, which basically increases the relative wealth of the US government and the US overall… While decreasing the relative wealth of everyone else in the world. That can result in higher inflation, but in addition to more inflation… It also increases the wealth of the US government and reduces the tax burden of US taxpayers while simultaneously decreasing the wealth of everyone else.
For example if the US prints 10% more money, that money goes to the US and by extension to US taxpayers… While the value of everyone else’s money in the world goes down by 10%.
Anyway, Taleb is making a rookie mistake of confusing correlation with causation. The seizing of Russian assets was about 25% causation and 75% correlation with countries moving to store more of their wealth in gold and less in dollars. But he makes it sound like it is 90% or 100% causation.
@@DailySourcehopefully your right and Russia wins. 👍🏻
He has been saying the same thing for last 11 years, but stocks are going double and triple.
I think gentleman naseeb Talib in few words said a lot especially economics wise.. I feel now it's mostly geo politics dictation economics .
I used to listen to him but he’s been consistently wrong.
And when he gets into politics and world geopolitics he’s an intellectual yet idiot.
He can’t see in himself what he sees in others.
I read one of his less well-known finance books and it was a poor attempt as philosophy.
I suspect he enjoys philosophy alot, he wants to be considered an intellectual. Which is not a silly ambition to have. But he always mixes it with finance and they are incompatible.
BAM! Right in the Kisser!
His math is solid, I don't see how he got it wrong at any time.
My personal feeling is that he is putting on an act, definitely wants to be seen as a great philosopher and intellectual. However somehow I don't think he is as clever as he obviously thinks he is.
@@davidcox8433 it doesn't matter if he thinks he's cleverer than he is. His math is solid, his takes are also solid. A lot of experts with credentials made statistics 101 mistakes that he debunked. His work is solid, never seen any naive mistakes. Actually some of his concepts are brilliant. His ego/narcissism is not an argument. Math is.
He knows gold is used as a store of value but not a hedge against market collapse. When markets collapse, people dump their gold. Look at 2007-2008.
@@kbkesq Then what is a hedge? Shorting (using options/buying puts)?
Americans own most of Americas debt
Who actually invests in his funds? Just buy s&p500 and some put options.
Raging wars in Mideast and UKR / Russia… guess the markets know something we average folks don’t.
been seeing a lot of taleb lately.
does he have another doomer book out?
Why did America choose to increase sovereign risk at a time when it needs foreign investment in its treasury market?
He has been a bear for a long time and keeps being wrong. One day he will be right though.
My great great grandad used to predict a recession every single day. He was right every 4 years.
He just keeps trying and one day he will get his moment to say TOLD U. LOL
Feezing assist is not the issue. Taxing telathy needs to happen
Soon as people say that DXY is dead you need to put your farm in dollars.
The dinosaurs should be in museums, not shown on tv.
I'd rather listen to Tom Lee than this guy, respectfully.
What?
I’d like to know what his best heading ideas are. That’s all he does. I’m glad he didn’t display his Arab hatred Israel and disregarding of Arab terror.
he is worried about the deformation of capital flows.
Skin in the game book is better than Communist manifesto.
Guy with socks and short pants is back! Ba humbug.
Weaponizing the US Dollar, while his argument has logic, there's a question that continues to be overlooked: how better to enforce the UN charter against a superpower gone rogue? For the record, hating the UN isn't the solution, or an answer to the question. Fundamentally, people want accountability when laws are broken, and exceptional contexts may require exceptional responses.
people criticizing Taleb for not answering as if he has a crystal ball have zero understanding of how probability and statistics work. But stupid people who are eager to speak on things they know nothing about are everywhere and that's life.
A war economy is the most solid thing as the economies go.
Markets are highly overbought
All in on tight shale
What a loser Taleb, I can't take him serious one bit his predictions have always failed to materialize yet he's being given the limelight, I wonder why that is...
And once you confiscate foreign assets, you cannot undo the loss in trust in your financial system for foreign buyers. Very stupid.
Jeez, his English is terrible... 😮 I can barely understand what he's trying to say... 😮
I think Nassim has a crush on Sonali, which is 100% understandable. Seems like he is often speaking with her when on Bloomberg.
Nothing to do with religious beliefs at all
He said two major mistakes: first was taking Russian assets and you interrupted him because you can’t shut up? What a terrible interviewer. Let the expert talk and shut up
Poor analysis. Poor articulation. Not insightful at all. Sorry, next….
I like his "schizophrenic“ analogy. I have 0dte covered call overhedged by otm puts. The payoff chart looks like a ✔.
he's talking BS.
We've only touched the hundred year upper boundary in 1929, 2000, 2022 and 2024, coinciding with the tops of the bubbles. 65% market crash bottoming in 2027. Rally into 2030 but no new all-time highs. Depression 2.0 scenario 2034-2044. Have fun!
You cannot time the market
Hrmm, hrrr, hmrrr, hryyyyhrmmm....and so on.
Nassim Taleb is great but every year he appears to say soon there will be a huge crash (he is not the only one btw)...obviously one day it will happen and he will say I told you...come one people, we know that economic cycles exist, ups and downs are part of the wealth creation process but nobody knows when it will happen
Nassimfulloshit
He quoted Trump !!!! Was he so stupid that he did not recognize Trump said a lot of stupid things ! I guess he is as dumb as trump!
Wait until 2025. Things are a changing
What is the point of these gloom and doom interviews
So, basically, you have no clue about what is going to happen and when. Thanks for nothing.
What a mess of incomprehensible word salad.
He said we shouldn't freeze assets. Then what ate the consequences?? He is probably a foreign agent. 🤔
Can we get more intelligent interviewers and not just a pretty face
Taleb always strikes me as sort of a joker.
Jamie Dimon, Nouriel Rubini, Taleb and Jeremy Grantham are perma bears who talk down the economy while still profiting from it…FUD (fear, uncertainty & doubt) propagators 😅
Yes, go to Trump and watch the economy go straight into the toilet like last time. Great strategy. Tales is a moron.
Let's see, before the governors imposed their Covid lockdowns unemployment was at 3.6% under Trump, and inflation was at 1.75%. Inflation hit 9% under Harris/Biden. And I am sure Harris' 28% corporate tax rate and taxing of unrealized gains will do wonders for economy, like tanking stock market 50% or more.
Nonsensical and a bit rambling.
10 minutes. Told nothing.
I'm new to trading, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
I suggest Miss Mary Gail Benner is extremely good on that. She is really good at what she does, Now I can pay so many bills because of her help.
This is correct, Mary’s strategy has normalized winning trades for me also, and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started..
Please educate me. I've come across this name before. Now I am interested. How can I reach her?
It doesn't matter if you are a current hodler or a newbie. You can capitalize on the fluctuation of Bitcoin by trading with good strategy/signals
She's on te le gram
Ah yes, you can skip to the last 5 secs to get a glimpse of his actual worldview and decide if you want to waste your time to start from the beginning again..
This guy talked about black swans when he was selling a book. When Covid hit, a true black swan, he was no where to be seen.
Covid wasn't a black swan, as he told numerous times. He warned a lot for it in his books because of our interconnected word.
@@evertjandegroot How was covid not a black swan? It was a catastrophic risk that was unknowable.
@@Chessmapling he warned of the consequences un Janurar 2020 paper
From Wikipedia: "In March 2020, Universa, in a letter to investors, estimated it had a return of 3,612% on invested capital in its strategy due to effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic."
Do you even know in 2020 covid America FED printed 9 trillion dollars of debt . 💀because America could not keep up with the inflation rising thats why they printed money . To keep inflation as low as possible.
Nassim gives the impression he was dropped on his head as a baby.
@@posthocprior odd comment , have you read his book ? The guys a genius
This crank is utterly boring…only America(the place he often slates) can produce such high status clowns that never get called on their nonsense
Listen to his 2008-2015 talks zzzz
He's from Lebanon.
@ and if he’d stay there he wouldn’t have been such an exceptional crank….turns out your current environment in his case for over 50 years turns you into…a crank -my point part 2
Another bs social scientist spouting off word salad.
He's speaking words but he's really not saying anything, it's like "freezing assets is not good for The Dollar", k, that's ......true, like duh, but WHAT DOES IT MEAN? Your function is as a PROGNOSTICATOR, so er, PROGNOSTICATE O.o
We are more fragile than in 08?
WHAT
House price was inflated too high in 2007-8, reaching 6.5x median income.
NOW: 8x median income.
SP 500 PE reached very high in 2008: 26 ish
NOW: 30
So tell me why it is not fragile
When you cannot pay 35 trillion dollars of debt you are screwed simple logic .
You cannot time the market it can happen anytime be prepared for anything .
As usual he say nothing
Smart man, terrible communicator.
Europe is worse then the USA? Impossible! 🤣
This guy not convincing me
Assets were never confiscated. They were frozen.
cant understand this mans English
What a waste of time
Chinese market rose 30% within few days, was that supposed to be a "positive" Black swan? " In stock markets black swan events are described as market crashes that exceed six standard deviations" Has the Chinese stock market just destroyed such definition because it is the opposite of market crash?
A black swan is something that can't be predicted and most people think could never happen. For example, to the ordinary Japanese person, the Hiroshima bomb was a black swan event. They could not have conceived such a thing happening until it did. Nagasaki was NOT a black swan event, because they would have realised if a thing like a nuclear bomb dropping can happen once, it can happen again.
Self marketing mr Taleb
He doesn't like the dollar too much, he doesn't like other assets too much which he hedges in order to get more dollars if they drop in dollar-based value. I happen to think (for lack of a better verb) somewhat like him, ie schizophrenically, but hedging would eat me up from all sides and so, instead, I try to reign in my spending and to diversify, thinking I can perhaps shoulder a 50% drop for 5 years. We'll see ...
The campaign shenanigans from both the red party and blue party is exactly what is stirring up this market panic. I have a little over 250k i wanted to put in the markets but I don’t know what direction to head now.