Why Ukraine invaded Russia | Ian Bremmer | Quick Take
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 9 сен 2024
- What's going on here? The fact that the Ukrainians can put the Russians under some domestic pressure in the run-up to what everyone expects will eventually lead to negotiations, which will help to improve Ukraine's position. And no matter who you talk to, in Europe or the US, the feeling increasingly is that it is going to be harder for the Ukrainians to continue to fight and defend their territory the way they have for the last two and a half years. And so that means you need to have negotiations in the coming year.
Subscribe to GZERO on RUclips and turn on notifications (🔔): / @gzeromedia
Sign up for GZERO Daily (free newsletter on global politics): rebrand.ly/gze...
@Ian_Bremmer's Quick Take:
A Quick Take to kick off your week. I wanted to talk a little bit about Russia/Ukraine before news in the United States and the Middle East take it off the headlines again.
The surprise, of course, is that the Ukrainians have invaded Russia. This was a substantial, you'd say more than an incursion, a significant amount of territory presently being held. The Russians have had to, as a consequence, announce a "counter-terrorism operation regime" in Kursk, in Bryansk, and Belgorod, not martial law, but still, that has reduced some of the forces that they can deploy in fighting the front lines in Southeast Ukraine. And it's also certainly embarrassed Putin, embarrassed his senior military leadership. This is supposed to be all about defeating the Ukrainians, and now the Russians have lots of citizens that are facing a war on Russian territory. Now, to be clear, the Ukrainians have no territorial claim on any part of Russia, but there is a feeling of turnabout is fair play.
Read more:
Want to know more about global news and why it matters? Follow us on:
Instagram: / gzeromedia
Twitter: / gzeromedia
TikTok: / gzeromedia
Facebook: / gzeromedia
LinkedIn: / gzeromedia
Threads: threads.net/@g...
Subscribe to our RUclips channel and turn on notifications (🔔): / @gzeromedia
Sign up for GZERO Daily (free newsletter on global politics): rebrand.ly/gze...
Subscribe to the GZERO podcast: podcasts.apple...
GZERO Media is a multimedia publisher providing news, insights and commentary on the events shaping our world. Our properties include GZERO World with Ian Bremmer, our newsletter GZERO Daily, Puppet Regime, the GZERO World Podcast, In 60 Seconds and GZEROMedia.com
#QuickTake #IanBremmer #RussiaUkraineWar
The idea that Trump would tell Putin what the deal is going to be strikes me as ridiculous.
What if nothing was off the table? What if Trump told Putin he had to leave Ukraine and give them a $$trillion or two or the USA would cut Russia out of all world finance and stop all of Russia's energy exports (by pressuring other countries not to take it and by the USA deliberately undercutting ANY price they offer). THAT would get his attention and they can then work out a face saving "Come to Jesus" conversion for Vlad to save his face with the grieving mothers of the MANY dead Russian soldiers.
yeah, definitely Ian Bremmer is democrat
I can't imagine Ukraine negotiating away any part of its country after what has happened.
@@treefarm3288 The lion doesn't care what the sheep thinks.
@@brandonlance3601 Russia? A lion? LMAO, what a joke. More like a pitbull versus a dogo argentino.
@@brandonlance3601 "Baa!" bleats Mr Pooty, despite the fact that the wool has all gone from his head.
I don’t see how we will have a settlement at all. This will most likely degrade into a stale generational war or cease fire also Cyprus but Ukrainians will never accept losing territory.
Empty,
Methinks you overestmate Putin's popularity in Moscow.
"Trump is more likely to decide Ukraine outcome Unilaterally" without weighing heavily in favor of Putin's Input (?) "BS" (where you been for 10 yrs & add a 1 term Trump, new unrestrained POTUS power (SCOTUS) & the new Trump Tower Moscow ) ..
This severely underestimates the desperation of the Russian position. 2024 is as good as it will ever be, and they have achieved none of their strategic goals. Every year from now on Russia will be in more dire straits. They are living off Soviet reserves, reserves that are dwindling fast. Meanwhile Ukraine is getting stronger, and European production is getting in gears.
What crack are you smoking? Ukraine is running out of men and their power grid is in complete shambles.
@jaxvoice718 - Let me guess. You have never visited Russia and have no understanding of the culture or of the history. Adolf Hitler throught Russia would not last 6 weeks when he invaded in June 1941. He said "all we've got to do is kick the door in and the whole edifice will come crumbling down". And how wrong Adolf was. And how wrong you are too!! So if Russia is desperate now (as you wrongly write) what were they like in June 1941 when Germany invaded?? Read your history!!!!
This will age well soon😅😅
@@nizicike759 what do you mean? This dude @jaxvoice718 wrote Russia is living off Soviet reserves that are dwindling fast. Russia's proved natural gas reserves were 1,688 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) as of January 1, 2024, the largest in the world. Russia's proven oil reserves were 80 billion barrels as of January 1, 2024. 8th largest in the world!! So what he wrote is rubbish ...
***Meanwhile Ukraine is getting stronger, and European production is getting in gears.*** LOL! UKR running out soldiers/recruits ... and The Russian Military PRODUCTIONS is now in HIGH GEAR ! ( EU has hardly any military production, to even supply Th eUkies with the Ammo ....😞
If there is any kind of negotiated redrawing of boarders, will Ukraine be able to join NATO quickly enough to ensure Russia doesn't just regroup and start the whole process of invading and capturing more territory again?
Thank you Ian, this is a reasonable and even handed assessment of the situation and you gave great insights into the Ukrainian manpower situation, the positions of both potential administrations, as well as the German position.
In other words, Trump will be a sellout.
That is the going assumption. It's more likely than not, but depends on who will be in control in the administration. It also assumes that Europe will submit to US armtwisting, a common assumption inside the Washington DC Beltway. However, to us Moscow is closer than Washington, and we have no interest in a repeat of the Munich Agreement.
Thank you for this update - exciting and worrisome at same time
Thanks Ian, you should do more of these.
@fishdontjumpboingboingboing,
Ian looks tired and is aging rapidly -- and this post is nothing but routine, thoughtless, pap.
This is not the Ian Bremmer we once knew.
All good comments, Bremmer is generally very astute. But considering the tight information bubble on the Ukrainian side, the fact that they are running out of trained recruits is not certain. There was an important number of recently trained soldiers ready to be sent into combat (estimated at 4 to 5 battalions), trained in UK, Canada and other NATO countries, but lacking the equipment. The Allies had enough equipment for only 1 battalion.
Since then, armament supplies have gotten better, so I wouldn't be surprised more battalions have been brought forward. Ukraine is never going to tell you what they have up their sleeve... maybe they have more resources than we thought...
Because the rumor this week is that the Ukrainian forces are gigging more trenches in Kursk oblast as we speak. Maybe they plan to stay...
Somewhat surprised by the naive view that Russia would ever accept any part of Ukraine joining Nato. This is a fundamental misunderstanding that any arminster along the current lines of engagement is anything but a pauze for Russia to rearm and reengage at more favorable terms. Russia is turning the corner from an authoritarian regime to fascistic state. This kind of talk is eerie remeniscent of 1938.
^^^^surprised by the naive view that Russia would ever accept any part of Ukraine joining Nato.^^^^
NOONE BELIEVES THAT WOULD BE AN OPTION !
_______________________________
***Russia is turning the corner from an authoritarian regime to fascistic state.*** it seems to me that our own U.S. is starting to resemble that also - The Crazy DimokRats want to JAIL and DESTROY the POLITICAL OPPONENTS !
What in gods name are you rambling about?
Ian Bremmer is worth to listen to - to learn the talking points Russian propaganda aims at Western professional audiences.
@@z.t.500This will get you nowhere above the 85 IQ mark if you don't commit to learning the western propaganda talking points. (Democracy, unprovoked, full-scale invasion, 3 days to take the country, rules based international blah blah..) there are a LOT more lies coming from our side, fortunately Americans are use to these lies and are waking up to smell the bacon. Either way... ukraine is as screwed as South Vietnam where we also coup'd a legitimate government to create a never ending war against its people in the North and South. As usually we will milk the destruction of ukraine until one day after the election and God forbid.. as long as we literally can.
How does this end without Putin in the dock at a tribunal?
That is something Putin might avoid. Highest priority would be to reclaim all Ukrainian territory and membership of NATO and EU, a Nuremberg style trial would be further down on the list. On the other hand he might want to avoid higher floor windows for the rest of his life.
Was Stalin put on a docket? Was Kim Il-sung? Franco stayed in power until he died.
The same way nazi scientists ended up working for the United States post-WWII. Shameless political expedience. A casual reminder that the US and its groupies in the West are not the "good guys". But like a broken clock we just happen to be right at this very specific point in time.
How old is he now? Everyone has their time and then life moves on. Imagine a Putin-less Russia.
@@sommmeguy He is young and healthy compared to typical world leaders today. He is 71 years old, which him gives him easily a decade more in power.
Thanks for the perspective, Ian. We'll see.
Well, I'm glad the Ukrainian's finally broke through but this is the first time in about 2 years now. So is it was they were incapable until now or were unable to for some reason? If is it the former it doesn't speak well for thier military leadership after untold billions in aid. If the latter we'll never know.
Timing. When we missed our chance for a quick victory in 2022/23 out of fear of "escalation", this was and is going to be a long war.
This incursion is a way to make the Russians bleed faster. But it is far from over yet. Russia will withdraw when they realise the alternative is worse, and they are not there yet. It will likely happen in 2025, but if they are thickheaded enough, or Trump wins, they might linger for another year or two.
This video is a huge misunderstanding of the Russian-Ukrainian politics. Russia removed all red lines when officially annexed Eastern parts of Ukraine even those that were not occupied by Russia. By doing so they put themself in a situation where Ukrainian army became a foreign force in "Russia" . From that moment, by the Russian constitution, Ukraine was already an invader. Entering Kursk region changed nothing. At least Russian officials can't say that, otherwise they to say that annexed eastern parts of Ukraine are not Russia. For 2 years West didn't get it. Ukrainians just explained the obvious. And still West can't get it. Really?
Russia went from having the second strongest army in the world to the second strongest army in Ukraine and now to the second strongest army in Russia.
Thank you Ian for sharing.
Go Ukraine 🇺🇦
Finally someone outside the Ukrainian leadership who knows.
I listen this to help me with my education about world affairs, but sometimes he makes my head spin with some his analyst.
It's took Russian Almost 3years ukraine did it few days went 1000 miles Russian over rated
I have a question, if their is a negotiated settlement between russia and Ukraine, why should the international community accept russia back. They broke international laws and committed massive war crimes. Why not leave the sanctions and leave them as a parish state?
whatever. after all the passive aggression its a wonder they can even sit in the same room with our leaders. you folks are everything you think of your enemies and worse. least they dont lie to your face about it.
We are not going to lift sanctions until they have repaired the damage they have done and returned the land they have grabbed.
Whether or not the West decides to lift sanctions, the international community accepts Russia already. The international community did not sanction Russia, the West did. And why would the international community sanction Russia? Look at the US sending weapons to Israel who is committing massive war crimes. Look at the many times the US admitted Israel is in breach of international law, yet abuses its veto to prevent Israel from receiving international sanctions.
The West sees Russia as evil. Russia sees the West as evil. The world sees the West and Russia as incompetent. The US, Russia, UK, France are part of the UN security council, who's tasked with mediating conflict to prevent war. That's hard to do when all of them are involved in some fashion with wars in Ukraine. The US and Russia don't agree on much but they do agree there should be no reform to the UN security council.
The US and Russia make the world much less safe. They need to grow up. Or probably in 2 decades, they will be allies, trying to fight against the superpower, China.
Because their contribution to the global economy in terms of fuel and energy is irreplaceable, throughout this entire conflict European nations have continue to burn a Russian fuel every second of every day and they cannot survive without it
@@andrewwong8932 Probably could survive without it the big question is the economic cost.
Giving Trump too much credit for "policy". He couldn't spell it.
His policy would be to ask Putin what he should do.
@@sommmeguy Your evidence?
@@timothymatthews6458 In July 2018, he took Putin's word that Russia had not interfered in the US elections, even when the FBI said otherwise. Done it before, will do it again.
@@sommmeguy It is *impossible* for a foreign country to interfere in US elections, because it would necessitate smuggling tens of millions of paper ballots into certain battleground states. It is Alex Jones-tier conspiratorial thinking, and it has been debunked for years.
Anyway, none of that is evidence that Trump took orders from Putin. Try again.
@@sommmeguy The US and Russia have been interfering in each others election for many years - it didn't start in 2016. Russia's foreign entity law was Russia's response to US and European NGO's political influence in Russia. Please note I support the US and European NGO's political influence in Russia because Russia has evolved to become a dictatorial state. Putin and his oligarchs are a criminal organization that controls a country having a nuclear arsenal to to match the US arsenal. Putin must lose.
Thanks, Ian.
Much appreciated your insights as always 😊
Bremmer is German. That is your answer for his positions on Russia.
Russia feels compelled to make a big decisive show of force. Western leaders are distracted with the Olympics and US election. Between now and December is a point of high-risk imo.
It has been 900 days.
There is NO Russian "big show of force".
Do you actually believe that they have voluntarily submitted to this long-term agony of failure, death, and destruction of their very infrastructure???
it is war ,how can Russia constantly use bad English language. Special military operations for full blown war. Terrorists for enemies etc
There is no single inch of Russian territory in Muscovy whatsoever. Ukrainian forces are advancing into a historically and ethnically Ukrainian region called Slobodska Ukraina, part of much bigger and older Ukraina Sěverskaja occupied by Muscovy since 1918, so this is neither invasion nor incursion but liberation. Kureskъ, Ryleskъ, Sudža, Olgovъ and more are early medieval Severian, Ukrainian towns predating Moskva for centuries.
It is easy for Ukraine soldiers entering Russia territory , because they have thousands miles border lines. It’s hard for Ukraine to occupy it.
Yeah, roaming through some wilderness and border forest and call it a success 😂
@@motivationishere3483 Just like Russia
While Ukraine might be loosing the war (this latest Kursk incursion being likely a PR stunt), the US is not. The US is fighting a war of attrition with Russia using the Ukrainian army. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the US would likely fund the American military-industrial complex to arm Ukraine. The same tactic worked splendidly in the 1980s in Afghanistan and contributed to the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union. If Afghanization of Ukraine is the goal, the US is faring quite well. In a perverse logic, the more Russia is winning and the more territory it captures, the more resources it would need to commit to control, feed and provide for the hostile Ukrainian population. Terrible for the Ukraine maybe but not so for the US in the longer run
^^^Terrible for the Ukraine maybe but not so for the US in the longer run^^^ YES, DEFINITELT not so TERRIBLE for the AMERICAN MILITARY-INDUSTRIAL-COMPLEX , in the longer run.. and GOOD fot the U.S. economy ...
🤡🤡
Honestly seem to me you missed the fact that competitor of US are gaining quite a lot of power in world …. Ukrain is going to be the bigger looser EU the second Russia is also going to be a looser but is not US to win… just China …
Winter will come.
Through it all over the last 2 years Putin has not indicated that he is willing to negotiate anything outside of prisoner swaps. He kept saying Ukraine was fighting until the last Ukrainian, yet casualty figures have shown that it's Russia that is willing to fight until the last Russian... How the hell do you negotiate with that?
This whole argument from Ian has been pointless considering the Russian ultimatum of still wanting all of Ukraine even going into year 3.
Agreed. The Ukrainians should not (and will not) ever accept Russian rule. This will be the longest guerilla war of the next few decades.
Casualty figures?? what are you 10 years old?
@@brandonlance3601 No, and neither do I spell like one...
@@brandonlance3601 Let the adults speak please. Casualty figures are often used when talking about the wounded and killed combined, perfectly valid term to use that you, despite having a name that'd indicate you to be a native speaker, can't seem to be able to spell correctly.
@@Jonra1 There are enough grammar errors in your comment to flunk you out of the 6th grade. I could care less.. its the youtube comments section, not anyone's senior thesis... What does concern is that you and the other simpletons just believe these figures as if they are gospel.. As if truth isn't the first causualty of war.. As if all war wasn't based on deception.. you refuse to think critically, or to even know your history on ultra minimal level..
This is what makes perpetual war against nations by the west possible. This is why I asked if he was 10.. it just seemed like he obviously hasn't been around long.
In all fairness, the Russians still have the second best army in Russia.
1. Putting pressure on Ukraine to negotiate is a straight invitation for putin to take more territory. Terrible idea.
2. And trump would follow the exact same strategy that's already in the works.
3. There won't be any negotiations
4. The conflict is NOT going to be "frozen" ie hostilities won't calm down.
The world is a chaotic, unpredictable place. Not a place for boring realists.
March to Moscow!
That would certainly start nuclear war...
@@Hexanitrobenzene Oh Please, fight the bully on his terms. why fight at all then, just curl up and cry?
Putin would never start a nuclear war. He is too cowardly and besides, his generals woukd not allow him to destroy the world.
This generally hasn't ended well for armies invading Russia from the West, going all the way back to the Swedes under Charles XII in the early 18th century ...
"Ukrainians have no claim on any part of Russia," Ian very plausibly says.
He refers to Moscow's continent-wide empire as "Russia," not "Kievan Rus" for some reason. 🤣😂
The fundamental thing we are seeing is a psychological event inside poor Mr. Putin's head: Moscow's empire is under great spinal stress, by the emergence of a wealthy China in the Far East and from the burgeoning cultural confidence of the Moslem middle of his straggling, weak, over-extended, land.
Nobody in any of that 70% of his territory sees any reason to be paying taxes to Msocow. All those peoples can see very clearly that they would be better off integrating into the Chinese economy or picking up cheques from the Gulf.
What should he do? What should he do? The sky is falling. The sky is falllng, Putin Little!
Well, it's ovious, innit? Time for poor Pooty to distract himself by making war on the nearest possible victim.
They are an advanced industrial nation? Who knew?
And their people remember being slaughtered by Stalin? Stalin? I don't know anything about no "Stalin," poor little Pooty deceives himself.
It is a shame that we are not willing to back Ukraine for another couple of years. Based on open source satellite photos we can see that Russia has already burned through most of their best equipment from the Soviet stockpile of weapons and now only have older and in worse shape equipment left in storage. The estimates I've seen, from sources that I trust, is that Russia has maybe about two more years of old Soviet tanks/troop transports/artillery pieces in storage, and the best of that equipment has already been sent to the front. (Which means as time goes on the quality of the equipment that Russia will send to the front will be older and older designs, eventually sending tanks/troop transports/artillery pieces that were manufactured in the 1950's to the front line, before eventually running out of even that equipment. They are also striping bases along their eastern borders of everything from tanks to anti-missile systems to send to Ukraine, and they are running out of that stuff as well.
If Ukraine and the west can keep it up, eventually Russia will be reduced to using whatever they can manufacture new, which is about 20% of what they are currently burning through, and sticks. This war can flip from the Russians using ten times the equipment that the Ukrainians have to the Ukrainians having the substantial upper hand in terms of equipment both in quality and quantity.
^^^^It is a shame that we are not willing to back Ukraine for another couple of years.^^^
but we ARE 🙂, we WILL BE 🙂, regardless who will win the ELECTION 2024
____
***the quality of the equipment that Russia will send to the front will be older and older designs***
WRONG ! Au contraire ... The Russian MILITARY INDUSTRY has now been REVIVED, and they can OUT-PERFORM evn the combined EU/USA productions, PLUS they have ALL THE MONEY they need, from the EXTRA TRILLIONS Russia is collecting and are reaping from the HIGH Oil&Gas prices .and Global Sales ! .. ( read some economics of wars ... i.e. America )
_____
***substantial upper hand in terms of equipment both in quality and quantity.*** IRRELEVANT, since the Ukies are RUNNING out of SOLDIERS . 😞( The Russia has over 500,000 more soldiers avaiable to be thrown in IF needed !
@@andyklapper8484 Depends on who "we" are. Europe is backing up Ukraine for the win, with some countries just "for as long as it takes", and Hungary not at all. The US is mostly "for as long as it takes", with the MAGA not at all.
@@jaxvoice718
Yeah, the problem with the "free and democratic world" is that we are very divided. If it was up to me, Ukraine would have the best equiped army (per capita) in the world. 2 years of goddamn tiptoeing cost countless lives...
@@Hexanitrobenzene If you look at equipment we supply, every year we supply more than the previous (the unfortunate holdup in the US Congress aside). Remember Germany started by offering 5000 helmets, and by now is the second largest supporter. This stepping up will continue in Europe, the US is less certain.
Problem is that it is too little and too late. We typically deliver what would have made a huge difference the year before. But every year we're not only shipping (and training) more, we're shipping more modern equipment. Russia has the opposite trajectory, and for most purposes has peaked.
@@jaxvoice718 I certainly hope that Europe continues to back Ukraine, but Germany has already halved what they promised because of their own domestic economic problems, and even if there is the will, they may not have the means. The US, by far, has the arsenal of weapons to provide Ukraine, Europe does not. Our stockpile and military industry is just so much larger than Europe's that I'm not sure they can make up for our withdrawal from the fight.
"...whether Harris or Trump *wins* " seven minutes in.
Not "win," Ian: Both Harris and Trump are singular proper nouns.
When a guy loses control of his own native language, he doesn't give off an impression of thinking clearly, Ian.
Putin will get something put in
His comments are so interesting. I can't remember what role he played in the Iraq conflict.
For pukin Special Military Operation turned to a Special Military Humiliation.
SLAVA UKRAINE 🇺🇦
@@josephphoenix1376 gag me
I'm not so sure Putin has a sense of urgency about ending the war.
Windbag timewaster.
Ukraine has a severe men shortage. It is literally grabbing men off the streets and stuffing them into vans to send to the front lines. It can’t hold the front in east Ukraine at all in any direction. So it sends some of their most capable units into an area where they’re guaranteed to suffer heavy losses. This is nothing but a PR act of desperation at the expense of people.
Ukraine needs to boost its advantages in other areas to have room for negotiation. My guess is that Russia has to assemble sufficient forces to push the Ukrainians out here, and when they do those forces get hit by ATACMS. Then they invade someplace else. Or they hit the Kerch Strait Bridge with western weapons, and then say sorry, we misunderstood. Or a Russian dark fleet tanker gets sunk in the Danish Straits, and Denmark starts insisting on checking the papers of every transit for sufficient insurance. Ukraine needs to escalate in order to have a negotiating position, and the Biden administration probably has little ability to restrain them. If they cut off weapons deliveries, that just leads to Ukraine doing even more radical actions like sabotaging Turk Stream, Yamal, or attacking civilian shipping in the Black Sea.
Give up Crimea to Russia?
Still waiting for your answer ?
Believe me Ukraine regirat what was doing
Much more symbolic than effectiveness.
It is so upsetting that some democracies, especially those in Europe, can’t see the direct link between their own safety and Ukrainian win.
Cough Hungary Cough...
Yes, but we have that problem in the USA as well.
Russian tends to break/ignore treaties once they get their military equipment built up.
As a Russian, I'd say the best advice for the host of this show is to keep an eye on the US political agenda and to steer clear of anything he's not that familiar with like at all.
Or stop being a cheap propagandist.
Stop saying "uh"....
Lots of nonsensical analysis from an armchair pseudo expert.
I see what u did there😂
I find your constant insistence that Ukraine will have to accept territorial concessions exasperating. There's no such thing as Ukraine conceding territory-that framing just can't work, because none of the territory in question is uninhabited. It's one part of Ukraine condemning another part of Ukraine, not only to live under totalitarian repression, but also to be forcibly conscripted into the inevitable next war when russia comes back for another bite at the apple. If that's your position, at least have the courage to acknowledge that there's no such thing as conceding territory without conceding people. Quit with the anodyne statements about territorial concessions and start honestly saying that your position is that Ukraine should concede millions of its citizens.
I respect Stephen Kotkin and he also proposes Korean solution here. His "winning the peace" arguments are very compelling.
I dream of the world where US wasn't hypocritical, supporting some dictators and opposing others.
In this flawed world however, there are no ideal solutions.
@@Hexanitrobenzene It is assuming this is a stable solution, but it is in effect an ongoing war between Europe and Russia, which will harm the prospects of Russia, Ukraine and the rest of Europe, and the world. The more flashpoints we get in the world, the more likely it will be to get a large conflagration.
@@Hexanitrobenzene Kotkin has the exact same problem. He frequently makes claims that "South Koreans are doubltess thrilled with the trade of territory for the prosperity they have." He never even pays lip service to the 26 million North Koreans living in the worst conditions imaginable... many of whom are family to those South Koreans. Yeah, South Korea is a vibrant successful society today, but that doesn't prove Koreans are collectively better off for not having made any more sacrifices in 1953 to recover more of their fellow citizens.
Look, if you think condemning millions of your countrymen to basically slavery is the best course, you're entitled to take that position-there are certainly tradeoffs, and I could steelman that case-but own the fuck up to it. Quit talking about trading territory for peace and acknowledge that you're prosing to trade abject misery and cultural genocide for some of the Ukrainian people for prosperity for the rest.
What are you saying? Do you really think in Donbass and Crimea there are so many pro Ucranians? Even more after 10 years of fights?
*"Russia begins anti terror operations in the 3 Territories where Ukraine Forces are now freely operating"* Bryansk Region Kursk Region and Belgorod Region with the main danger as Ukraine secures all 3 of these massive spaces that a massive Russian Army and all of their equipment becomes surrounded around the City of Belgorod North of Kharkov latter a Ukaraine City also known as kHarkiv and a massive City as well brutally attacked by Russia and would certainly welcome Belgorod City suddenly being no more include all Territory as New kHarkiv Region and possibly very large Ukraine Administration Area. So far the Russian response has been confused and ineffectual and involves a huge number of surrenderings and now retreats out of Ukraine proper. Russia will *EVENTUALLY* respond out of Moscow with something material and massive of this I have no doubt but so far to date nothing effective that prevents further advance by Ukraine in every direction centered on or around Kursk Region. Nothing at all to report on from the clueless dopes in the Levant that no one cares about as expected there as well. Romania a big deal now tho.
turn about is fair game? if you were Vladimir Vladmirovich and 'elensky invaded western Russian territory how fast would you want to "negotiate"? lastly how is this incursion NOT an escalation?
I love Bremner but his liberal bent was obvious in this video. Appeasement doesn't end well with dictators.
To give up territory for a temporary respite is not a liberal bent, this is a trumpist bent.
Democrats more likely to work multilaterally with European partners? Heard of Nordstream pipeline?
🤡🤡
Thank you...
This makes no sense.
Fine as it goes but good military analysis is needing here, and lacking. Its difficult to make conclusions without sufficient logistics information. Nonetheless, its very lokely that this operation is putting big pressure on the Russians at many levels -- with Russians being notably poor performers in many of those logistics categories.
trump makes unilateral decisions internationally - true ian - but maybe there’s a domestic problem: the military industrial complex.
if raytheon & lockheed martin said to trump, “since this war started, european countries are putting in massive orders for weapons, we’re making big money now, you can have some too…”
would trump stick by his morals and say “naaaa - money’s not important - let’s end this war now”
does trump have morals 🤷🏽♂️
He'd be less influenced by that than any career politicians or operatives in the Swamp.
🤡🤡
I'm sorry but I can't understand your argument .
Ukraine's chief problem in the recent past has been its lack of manpower .
How does sacrificing elite Brigades by sending them on a doomed mission affords the Ukranians any leverage ?
It's almost inconceivable to imagine any fast or feasible solutions for the manpower crunch Ukraine faces in the near future . The Russians are deliberately eliminating Ukraine's fighting strength on the frontlines .
So not only is there a scarcity , it's increasing in measure with each passing day .
Russia is a huge country sparsely populated . It's not really any strategic masterstroke to take advantage of it and carry out an invasion especially when the invading forces have no capacity to hold on to any occupied territory .
Besides, the Russian doctrinal strategy is immune to diversions and lapses which was best demonstrated during the Chechen wars . Thet took little account of the multiple terror attacks that Chechens carried out all across Russia .
From the very start this war has been premised on unsubstantiated presumptions of Russian behaviour .
Why would Russia use tactical nules if it can best the Ukranians conventionally ?
It's hard to premise this act on anything but desperation
It is the other way around. Ukraine is fighting a war of attrition that Russia is losing. This year is a difficult year because the political issues with mobilisation, the time it takes to train new recruits, the unexpected hold-up of equipment in US Congress for half a year, the time it takes for Europe to build up again their disarmed military-industrial complex, and delays in building up defensive positions.
So Russia has for almost a year had near-ideal conditions, and still they have barely managed to achieve anything, and that for immense cost to Russian economy and future. Now that the tide is turning, they will find it harder to sustain an unsustainable war.
@@jaxvoice718 It's Ukrainian desperation, this will be over in a few weeks and those Ukrainian soldiers will be dead. All the while the West has sacrificed nothing to help Ukraine besides drag out the war. F-16s are just arriving 8 months after they were promised. Western leaders have asked their citizens to make no sacrifice.
On one hand, what Ukraine is doing is careless. On the other hand, what is Ukraine supposed to do?!? They are losing territory to Russia. Western media doesn't even cover how much territory they are losing anymore.
The West is a joke. Ukraine could have won in the first year if Western leaders were serious. Instead all they care about is their jobs. Why did the West even mention Ukraine could join NATO in 2008, if they were not prepared to go toe to toe with Russia to get Ukraine into NATO. It's been 16 years since 2008. Ukraine could have been admitted in 2009 given the speed Finland joined. Ukraine could have joined after the annexation of Crimea. Ukraine could join now. Russia's winning because they said in 2008, Ukraine joining NATO is a red line for them and they've successfully prevented Ukraine from joining NATO for 16 years. What do Western leaders have to show on their promise that Ukraine would join NATO? Nothing. They won't even let Ukraine join now because they don't want to go to war. What do they think would happen if Ukraine joined NATO? Russia would attack a NATO Ukraine and NATO would have to go to war. So what's the hold up, why is Ukraine not part of NATO after 16 years?!?
@Abaddoniang I don't think people realise none of these troops will escape.
It was always a 'one way trip'. Imagine knowing that... and doing it anyway.
All for a few desperate moments in the West's news cycle.
To be a proxy for the West is a thankless job.
@@jaxvoice718 Um, no -- Ukraine is not winning this conflict of attrition, nor is it going to. Hence the increasingly desperate flailing.
@@mcgilcol 🤡🤡
Thank you Bank of America
This conflict should never started in the first place, there is enough blame to go around, both the west and Russia going back to the Bush era…..
Nonsense. Deprogram yourself from Russian propaganda.
Sent 4000 brave soldiers to sacrifice themselves or waste their precious lives when there was no hope to survive.
Return Crimea to Ukraine and give up Donbass to Russia and Ukraine gets to choose if they join the EU AND NATO.
No.
All of Novorossiya goes to Russia, excluding Odessa for Black Sea access.
Then Ukraine agrees to Neutrality.
That's the best offer Ukraine can get.
@@LeftWingNationalist Russian warship: Go - - !
@tayler2396 glad you got your virtue signaling in. Terms above will still be the ending terms
Ukraine needs a long term strategy, instead of suicide.
Russia has TIME whatever Ukraine did won't bring strategic victory.
This is a joke right? Demographics are destiny: Russia doesn't have much time left in this century.
Wrong - Russia's economy is on the verge of collapse. Watch for it!
Time is the one thing Russia doesn't have. They are living off reserves, and those reserves are shrinking. 2024 was the year where Russia would have to make a difference. The holdup in US Congress, the delay in mobilisation made this year the weakest Ukraine would ever be. Every year from now on Russia will be worse off.
Europe, meanwhile is slowly getting their military production up. It will barely match Russia in 2025, but with US support and Ukraine's own production, that is more than a match for Russia, and that on their own home turf.
you what i find 'embarrassing?' that the supposed experts think this is going to matter. whatever you are getting paid ian...its too much. way too much.
Yeah, it's battle of the Bulge, Zelenskyy style. He already wasted 1,610 troops KIA and seriously WIA + 220 armored vehicles in this another copycat lunacy of his mustached predecessor.
Typical troll response. Russia lost more than half a million soldiers! Who wasted what???
...and you would know all about copycat lunacy.
@@American-In-Mykolaiv It's total BS and you know it.
Yeah, Ukraine has resisted a nazi invasion longer than Leningrad did.
@@joshuapaul2022 Do you have a source for any of those figures or is it you that's peddling BS? As far as losses go, 315,000 Russian casualties and that's only through January 2024. (Russians of course say it's lower). That's from Wikipedia, "Russian invasion of Ukraine," > Casualties.
America and Ukraine Provoked Russia. I have overwhelming evidence. Based on that. Anyone who dismisses the provocation I immediately stop listening to.
In what way they provoked Russia ? With US inviting Ukraine to NATO and then never giving exact roadmap ?
@Hexanitrobenzene John McCain, Chris Murphy going directly to Kyiv during the insurrection and telling the insurrectionists America supports them.
That's a American provocation.
Volodymyr parasyuk ultimatum on Feb 21st 2014 AKA the coup is Ukrainian provocation. There are others by that's 2
@@Hexanitrobenzene John McCain, Chris Murphy going to Kyiv and telling the insurrectionists America backs them.
Volodymyr Parasyuk Feb 21st 2014 ultimatum
@Hexanitrobenzene yt deleted 3 responses.
1. Learn why Jon McCain and Chris Murphy went to Kyiv before the coup.
2. Learn who Volodymyr Parasyuk is and what he said Feb 21st 2014
@Hexanitrobenzene yt won't let me get detailed. It's why I went back to Facebook. Facebook atleast allows for photos and links to prove things
The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) invaded Russia's Kursk region to boost the rating of US Democratic Party presidential candidate Kamala Harris, Tuomas Malinen, associate professor of economics at the University of Helsinki wrote on social media.
"What is happening here is likely to serve two purposes:
1) To gain more bargaining power for peace negotiations.
2) To present some positive news on the Harris/Walz policies to the U. S. populace before elections," the professor wrote adding that such actions by the Ukrainian army will cause an escalation of the conflict.
🤡🤡
Ukraine has a severe men shortage. It is literally grabbing men off the streets and stuffing them into vans to send to the front lines. It can’t hold the front in east Ukraine at all in any direction. So it sends some of their most capable units into an area where they’re guaranteed to suffer heavy losses. This is nothing but a PR act of desperation at the expense of people.
While Ukraine might be loosing the war (this latest Kursk incursion being likely a PR stunt), the US is not. The US is fighting a war of attrition with Russia using the Ukrainian army. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the US would likely fund the American military-industrial complex to arm Ukraine. The same tactic worked splendidly in the 1980s in Afghanistan and contributed to the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union. If Afghanization of Ukraine is the goal, the US is faring quite well. In a perverse logic, the more Russia is winning and the more territory it captures, the more resources it would need to commit to control, feed and provide for the hostile Ukrainian population. Terrible for the Ukraine maybe but not so for the US in the longer run
The 'splendid' '80s Afghan initiative was clearly outdone by the 90s/2000s/2010s Afghan II initiative.
While Ukraine might be loosing the war (this latest Kursk incursion being likely a PR stunt), the US is not. The US is fighting a war of attrition with Russia using the Ukrainian army. As long as the Ukrainians are willing to fight, the US would likely fund the American military-industrial complex to arm Ukraine. The same tactic worked splendidly in the 1980s in Afghanistan and contributed to the ultimate demise of the Soviet Union. If Afghanization of Ukraine is the goal, the US is faring quite well. In a perverse logic, the more Russia is winning and the more territory it captures, the more resources it would need to commit to control, feed and provide for the hostile Ukrainian population. Terrible for the Ukraine maybe but not so for the US in the longer run
Sounds good on paper, the problem for the US is China not Russia. With a 33 trillion debt and one eye on Russia and another in the middle east. The long run looks chinese to me