Why only 30% of first round quarterbacks succeed
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
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QBs are hard to evaluate. But man if your team needs to find a good safety in the second round every year, I got you!
Undefeated at 2nd round safeties lol
One things that makes QB scouting harder than other positions is layman scouts do not have access to the interviews team conduct with the players, their coaches and teammates. Justin Fields might be a genius, he might be lazy, he might be both. I can’t know because I never spoke to him.
Brian Glaze like who?
In other words, Jaquan Brisker to the Jets at the top of the 2nd?
How much of a 1st rounders success is dependent on the team that drafts them?
Commented early, Brent addresses quite well.
This video shows how much respect we should have Derek carr and Matthew Stafford. These guys were drafted to disaster franchises and still manage to have good-to great seasons despite the constant turnover in coaches and players.
And this is why I disagree with Brett in saying that a quarterback in a bad situation will always fail. I’m not saying a young quarterback on a bad team has to be a pro bowler and make the playoffs but you can be put in bad situations and still at least look like a competent starter. Guys like Darnold and Rosen weren’t just mediocre or subpar, they ranked in the bottom in a lot of major passing categories and you can’t say that’s all on coaching and the supporting cast. They would’ve most likely struggled even with good teams.
@@kevinhenry4047 coaching and supporting cast effects alot
But those qbs combined for 0 playoff wins on those teams. Not really failures but can't reach their ceiling
Matt Ryan too
Talent wins out. I disagree with Brett's entire idea. It's circular logic, fateful bull$h*t, only these teams will have good QBs cause they are teams that are good.
Love how Brett uses his past mistakes and learns from them, instead of burying them and considering himself a perfect genius. Everyone has to be able to do this, and most people can't.
Wich mistake did he do?
@@Brownie1904 just missed predictions. Not any serious mistakes or anything. Like when he mentioned not seeing Herbert as a first round talent
@@Patrick-tt3ig Ah. Ok. Thought I missed something big :D
Him and shomler are the best at owning their bad takes.
People have to think they're correct. Look at how people will argue about the dumbest things and they don't care if their family never speaks to them again if they can walk away thinking they were right. I work with a girl who acts like she knows everything and anytime a manager brings up something wrong she'll reply something like oh I knew that. I've seen her do shit any when it gets brought up, she says it wasn't her. That kind of attitude annoys the shit out of me. You don't always have to be right, but at least admit you don't know something and people will understand (most of them). I have no problem admitting i was wrong so it's alien to me why someone has to think they're always in the right, even about things that really don't matter.
I’ll never forget the 2014 Draft. I said the Texans should’ve drafted Manziel 1st overall lmao
Ooff, you dodged a bullet, signed: a browns fan
I was so big on him 😭😭
Dawg😑
i cried when the vikings passed on him! 😂
I was so sad when the Cowboys took Zack Martin over him
My favorite Herbert story is when the Chargers gave him a more advanced playbook and he was glowing at the opportunity to actually use his brain; He's a 4.2 Biology major in college and Oregon football had him playing checkers on Saturdays.
Not checkers UNO lmao
mario cristobal just had a terrible qbc and pgc herbert's last 2 years at oregon, herbert got pep hamilton as a nfl rookie
He was a scholar athlete. I think he chose to stay in college one more year.
Yea maybe he should have went to medical school instead.
Too bad he can't hit water if he fell outta' a boat.
My QB philosophy: Draft the freak. If they bust, try it again. It’s the most important position in the game. Taking a conservative route out of fear, will limit the potential of a franchise for an era.
I agree, but I think it's not just about freaks in terms of arm strength or athletic ability, but freaks in terms of being a competitor. Joe Montana, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady are perfect examples of these kind of freaks (Joe being Cool and calm, Peyton being the definition of a field general, and Tom with that fire and drive).
More like draft the freak you've seen/coached before when he was 14/15 and are confident about their instincts and takes well to coaching. That way you know their strengths and weaknesses and not try turn them to something in the pros that they are not. Because one constant of the QBs Kollmann screwed at evaluating was they turned into their best version of themselves beyond the college level.
You don't get to do it more than twice. You're acting like Mahomes is there every year.
@@JJ-zr6fu even then, mahomes had some standout games in college but he wasn’t considered a generation talent or the “It” guy coming out of college. He fell into a phenomenal system and developed very well. The only top tier type talent I’ve seen coming out of college recently is tlawrence given the fact that he has the height and arm strength (so physically gifted), has the pro qb intangibles, and can dominate in the pass and run game. Obv he’s on a bad team at the moment but he’s a prime example of a qb you would dream for in every draft
@@faceurhell So find a once in a generation guy? Ok, if they were falling out of trees everyone would have one.
On a serious note, one of my first thoughts on this before I watch the whole video is that evaluating QBs is very difficult because the league, offenses,etc are constantly changing and evolving over time so if an evaluator's criteria isn't evolving, then they will miss a lot.
Even then, you'll still miss because it's not just about evaluating well. There are so many factors that determine whether a QB will be successful
Great point
It's even more difficult if you drink during the day and listen to people like Mel Kiper.
Also the players are just that much better, in every way. If we view the approx. 72,000 NCAA players as a talent pool for NFL teams, less than 0.5% of players will be drafted/signed, fewer will make a 53-player team roster and maybe see game time. Meaning the difference in skill, speed and strength in the NFL makes almost makes it a different game. The QB position also benefits the most from imbalances between college teams. They can have the whole package, but their ability to perform is being largely boosted by the fact they’re a big fish, amongst a bigger school, playing in a small pond. Can they adapt, grow and survive when thrown in the ocean?
They’re also the most consequential player on the team; the whole team is affected by their ability to perform at the required level. We hear the term “Franchise QB,” and many are drafted, expected to be the “Difference Maker,” a team needs to finally succeed. When they aren’t; are they a bust? Need more time? Or a different team/strategy/coach, like Stafford?
He kind of danced around it and I'm surprised he didn't mention it, but the real reason (imo anyway) that people fail to project QBs so much is that the important stuff isn't really on film at all. Namely, are you a hard worker, are you smart, and do you handle criticism well.
Sometimes you can see indirect evidence of this. Like Mac Jones had a body fat percentage comparable to mine mid season his final year at Bama, so I wasn't very surprised to see him not adapt to DCs figuring him out. Similarly, Jayden Daniels has grown such a huge amount at LSU that's it hard to imagine anything but injury derailing him. Outside of extremes like that though, you have to rely on the college coaches being truthful with you about the player because you just can't know.
Though there is something to be said about the high mobility, tuck it and run guys are good for how NFL teams like to run themselves nowadays. You don't actually need to have your rookie QB play, I think Green Bay has thoroughly debunked the notion that you do, but if you do have them play, the mobile guys are going to be more effective while they learn how to QB.
its worth noting that most of these QBs like Allen and Mahomes were born into a fantastic system that was a perfect fit for them, however when Lamar took over for Baltimore the Ravens went from the most pass heavy offense under Flacco to the most run heavy in the league
Allen’s situation wasn’t ideal at first
@@jacksonstone6146 the bills went to the playoffs the year before he was drafted
@@Revealingstorm. and there was about 30% of the roster back from that team when Josh got there. They started a rebuild the season before and made the playoffs despite that with the help of a very easy schedule and some luck. They continued the teardown after that season and then drafted Josh to, basically, a new roster. Dude was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin as his #1 WR and Zay Jones as his #2... one of the worst WR tandems I can recall. Granted he wasn't great, but anyone who watched him that rookie season post elbow injury, saw a kid coming around.
@@adamjv77 crazy how kelvin went to TE soon after that lmao
@@Revealingstorm. The 2018 Buffalo Bills had a third of their cap space gone due to $53 million in dead cap, two of our starting O-linemen were gone due to sudden retirement leaving or offensive line to be arguably the worst in the league, our QB coach never coached at that position before (predominately a WRs coach), and the veteran QB in the room was...Nathan Peterman.
Josh Allen wasn’t supposed to start for a while, but due to Peterman being himself, Josh Allen got to sit for one half and was forced to come out in the season opener against the Ravens during garbage time.
I can’t wait for Brett to absolutely whiff on a big quarterback who’s a mechanically sound, polished pocket passer. The chaotic randomness of the NFL Draft demands it.
Could be talking about Rosen or Darnold with that description, both were very sound and polished, both thrived in pro style offenses, both had good strong arms and great accuracy. By all accounts they should’ve thrived.
@@TheUnnamedAssailant darnild was far from polished in college lol, he had a big arm and that’s about it, jets just fell in love in the pre draft
Rosen was a polished pocket passer in college in a pro style offense
Bo nix has entered the chat
"Oregon ran screens 25% of the time...no NFL team has gotten close to that number", 2019 Cards sure seemed that high at times, and it was disappointing to see a 36Y.O. Larry Fitzgerald being fed screens because the offense as a whole was so limited.
@Donald Donald Ramsey was way too good when it came down to tackling RB’s and rbs in screen in particular, they were not going to get far running screens in that manner
the tua and jalen hurts predictions coming true this year cracks me up, it proves that even when you’re wrong and you admit it, you’re still wrong
It was more about Brandon Staley and Joe Lombardi being absolute morons. They wasted Herbert’s talent by turning him into a check down machine while Staley making all the brain dead decisions. Hurts play on a super team though he was objectively a star. I wish Tua can stay healthy but I feel like teams caught up to him and McDaniel’s offense later in the season.
In the case of Herbert probably the most unnoticed factor that caused him to hit the ground running in the NFL aside from superior scheming was that back in Oregon, he was maintaining a 4.0 GPA in a difficult major while also being the starting qb. And when he got to the NFL he could put all of his brain power into football which caused his development to spike rapidly.
PEP HAMILTON
In all fairness in regards to the Justin Herbert pick, people are using hindsight to criticize you. No one outside of Oregon fans believed he would be great. There should be a lot of grace for QB evaluation.
Exactly, he was trash at Oregon. Even the NFL analysts were not sold on him.
@@elijahwise3060 He was not trash smh..He didn't have 3 wr's drafted in the 1st round, hell none of his wr's got drafted..4 different systems in 4 seasons just in college..His junior year he was projected as the #1 pick but came back his senior year when lsu went on that insane run..
I mean he was a top pick for a reason lol he's similar to Allen physically
@@heimpai2282 exactly lol. People still don’t get it. They can’t contextually comprehend what he dealt with at Oregon. The guy is a superstar
He still isn't great though he puts up pretty stats but not wins.
That's how fast things change. 9 months ago, you were catching flak for rating Hurts and Tua so highly. NOT EVEN A FULL SEASON later, they're two of the three legit MVP candidates in the league.
And see where we are at now hurts is a system qb and so is tua
@@GookSquadGaminghorrible take
Two things I was left pondering from your criteria at 17:20
1. If its "Destination over Everything", how does "bad franchises" approach picking QBs in the draft? Should they simply pick based on tools and coachability? Or have a bigger focus on leadership? (ie. I would probably say Burrow scores higher on leadership than tools)
2. In theory, Trey Lance should be the posterboy for these 3 criteria's, as he seemingly covers all three, so will be interesting to see how he pans out
Great video as always Brett! Looking forward to draft szn!
"Bad franchises" should hire the right coach to run the right style/scheme O for the QB. They should also hire the right GM that will draft players to best support that scheme/style. Otherwise you end up with, at best, a Matt Stafford in Detroit situation.
What it means is you can't turn a franchise around by just drafting a quarterback.
You need a good coaching team (bonus points if their style matches up with the quarterback) and a general manager who can build a decent supporting cast.
Bad teams if they truly want to become great is look at the talent they have and what it can do better than anyone else in the league to win games on each side of the ball.
Then make that their priority.
Even if they have the first pick in the draft and a Joe Burrow type of QB is there but there defense is best suited for QB pressure, and someone like Nick Bosa is also available you draft him instead of the QB.
The 85 bears, 49ers in the 80s, Steel Curtain Steelers best exemplify what I mean.
@Chris Morris
Exactly.
What I've learned from That Franchise Guy for that answer of how bad franchises should approach drafting QBs is that they straight up shouldn't draft one until they create a good situation. Look at the Lions; they're a textbook situation of what to do BEFORE drafting a QB rather than the Jags who hoped Trevor Lawrence would fix all of their problems; I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit becomes destination #1 for a draft prospect sooner rather than later.
Similar situation with New York; instead of giving up on DJ off rip, bringing in Daboll and building a good *situation* to fairly evaluate that QB and if they don't see an elite ceiling, THEN finding the QB, rather than vice versa.
There's a lot of variables in most positions but there's a lot more in QBs. System, surrounding talent, talent of the QB itself, chemistry, there's a lot. It's easy to get it wrong. It the end of the day it's a team sport. It's never just one guy. QBs don't win rings, it takes a whole team effort.
intelligence is a super important quality that gets undervalued. Jared Goff is a prime example of why this matters. Personality and drive are important as well.
My favourite takes back on 2017 was the people who said Allen should switch to TE and Lamar to WR
All I heard was Allen had no pocket presence. Then rookie year he evaded so many sacks
Ranking Tua and Hurts above Herbert does not seem so crazy after this year. Maybe not the right choice but CERTAINLY not a crazy choice.
flores vs mcdaniel
I like how Chris simms got all these right. He hasn’t missed since dak presscott
Dak walked into a great situation in Dallas. Any other place and he woulda flamed out.
@@Soccercrazyigboman dallas went 4-12 the year before dak. Three of the wins were from romo. The three backup qbs combined for 1 win.
DAK JUST PLAYS LIKE A 3RD ROUNDER
One year later, projecting Tua and Jalen Hurts as better QBs isn't as crazy as it once was.
Jalen hurts and Tua are not elite QV’s
Disagree about Rosen. He has had opportunities in the NFL. He was with SF and Shanahan, where he couldn't even compete against third string and forever practice squad players.
I also think Arizona killed his big ego/confidence. He had the potential but it’s too late and his confidence is shook. I always questioned his ability to lead an NFL team anyways. Seemed too arrogant and the vets wouldn’t have took that up very well.
@@tominator028 He got his college coach fired his last season of college. That's how bad he was coming out.
He was also in Tampa with Bruce Arians and Tom Brady.
@@colten53 And couldn't beat out Blaine fuckin Gabbert for the backup spot
he was overdrafted
14:50 honestly it’s been a good take this season
great*
Hey Brett, as someone from Germany who never played any football or watched the game for quite a while, I'm learning a lot from your content to better understand this beautiful sport I fell in love with. Thanks a lot.
Rating Tua and Hurts above Herbert isn't looking so bad now
Still sucks tbh.
I was going to complain about Jared Goff being a borderline hit but I see this is a year old. I think he's earned it now!
Yeah he played so well this year
Who would have thought....evaluating QBs is incredibly difficult 🤔 😅
It's almost like it's a very dynamic position
There would be a better hit rate if the NFL wasn't so desperate for QBs. Basically if you don't have a future hall of famer at QB you're looking for one. No other position needs that type of skill level.
I mean, at least the Tua & Hurts take didn't age all too bad...
I think Cris simms has the best grasp on QBs looking back on his track record.
Yeah people can't stand simms some reason but ig you actually check the history of these guys hes been by far the best at predicting qbs.
I was literally going to comment this
Chris Simms got a lot of flack for putting Lamar as his qb1 in 2018 which wasn't exactly wrong looking back but he didn't have the ridiculous ceiling that Allen has. But he is actually really good at evaluating QBs
@@TheSoundwave92 : Lamar was Heisman Trophy winner, unanimous MVP, has a better winning percentage than Allen and went to the playoff 3 straight seasons before getting injured, and you are still talking about Allen's ceiling being ridiculously higher than Jackson's. Allen hasn't even reached Lamar's floor yet. Brett didn't mention this aspect of qb evaluation. The euphemistic "Face of the Franchise" syndrome. The perception that you so eloquently articulated. That's why QB's like Daniel Jones, and Rosen, and Darnold and Drew Lock can get drafted so high in the draft. Hell even Brett is talking nonsense about the team carrying Lamar when it was Lamar who took over a failing losing Flacco offense, and took the Ravens to the playoffs saving Harbaugh's job. Too many people get blinded by the "narrative" put out by the media and fail to evaluate these qbs on their own merits. Simms is good at filtering out the BS and even he admits he occasionally has gotten caught up in the narratives.
@@williejohnson5172 Yes because Jackson will breakdown and will have to really change his game during the same time Allen is really starting to learn the finite details of his game.
I think you should re-visit the Tua,Hurts, and Herbert take now that all 3 looking good…I mean Tua has health issue but we knew that from the start
The funny thing about this video is that 8 months later the Tua and Hurts over Herbert take looks a lot less horrible than it did preseason.
Tua and Hurts lookin' pretty good now.
Tua and Hurts looking really good now
The first year I actually got in to the draft, I chose Herbert as my guy, i saw all the flack he was getting without anyone taking in to account all the things he had to deal with during his college career. I now have no desire to try and predict the draft again im just going to keep my 100% record
Draft is a crab shoots. Get out while you are ahead.
What's your QB ranking this year ?
@@rizkyanandita8227 yeah it really is, it depends on situation unless you're a special talent
@@elijahwise3060 I really like Malik Willis but im heavily biased as a steelers fan and wanting us to have a QB I might actually like as a person, but honestly I have no clue about this class
@@odysseus1660 Yeah, he's got a lot of potential, I like Corral too even though people are low on him. Pickett has a lower sealing but he can be a good starter in NFL too me like Derek Carr. I can already imagine myself next year reading this and looking like a clown lol.
I think people really started to wake up to the “destination over everything” with the 2021 draft. I remember seeing tons of takes that would say the most successful Qbs will be Tlaw and whoever goes to the 49ers
I had Herbert as my top QB in the draft, and everyone thought I was crazy. Now, he's the best young QB in the NFL, imo.
As a Wisconsin Badger fan, I was unsure what to think of Herbert until I saw him single handedly dismantle one of our best defenses in the Rose Bowl. I was sold and knew he was QB2 behind Burrow.
Shit he’s QB1 from the draft and really always has been
That Tua and Hurts take is looking spot on now.
Rewatching this video a year later as a Packers fan, destination is super important. Jordan Love wouldn't be the same player if he went to a struggling franchise
Brett I love this video. Now we gotta hear both
1) your take on last years quarterbacks based on your new grading system
2) what landing spots could setup a toolsy QB for great success
Bet it becomes you’re most watched video(s) ever!
2) The Steelers. Arguably the best-run franchise in the leage. And their long-time starting QB just retired.
Arm strength is important but if your team drafts tua, you realize how important because Miami can only threaten 1/3 of the field because of tuas high school arm strength and that makes it much easier for defenses to not even worry about 2/3 of the field!!
So to sum it up, fit matters when drafting a QB. Or it takes a good coach to adjust schemes and playbooks to fit the QBs style
You also have to take into account teams are now drafting qb that fit their schemes vs their ability.
New comment, about the last point you made of traits for a successful QB: Destination. As a Browns fan, this is why I have no problem with the Browns taking Baker over Allen and Jackson… they are Better QBs, but I truly believe Baker is the only one who had the ability to overcome that pressure. Both Lamar and Josh had great, stable staffs that were patient and helped them develop. Baker has been with 4 HCs now, and while not perfect, he has brought Cleveland out of the dweller and we’re at least middle class now. For that, I will always have love for Baker.
The problem with evaluating a QB is that destination has more to do with the QBs success than the actual QB himself. Every single first round pick could have been successful IF they went to the right team. But, we don't evaluate the teams that are picking, we just evaluate the QB expecting them to develope in every system. I agree with you on Baker. I don't think ANYONE but Baker could have found any success in Cleveland. Unfortunately for Baker, he was drafted to a dumpster fire and somehow that becomes his fault when the fan base and media don't see development like they want.
@@jtpromolab I agree. I don’t think anyone would say that Baker ever had the upside of Allen or Lamar, but I think it’s fair to say that his upside has been hindered by the incompetence of the Browns organization. That’s why, as a Browns fan, I am more than willing to see what he offers this season. I’m terrified that the Browns are going to let him go and he’s going to make us pay. Having a Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr is a good thing for a franchise, and I fear Browns fans won’t know a good thing until it’s gone.
@@maxstuart8481 What's your take now that he's most likely gone and you guys have Watson?
@@martimxavier9690 I still am incredibly grateful for what Baker did for the Browns. Watson is better of course, but I stand by the fact that Baker was one of a kind in terms of dealing with the turmoil the Browns put him through, and bringing stability to the team at the most important position for 4 years. I may be off on this, but Baker has started more games for the Browns than any other QB since they returned. Baker gave me my best memories as a Browns fan so far. People love to hate him, and I guess I understand why, but I’ll always think of Baker well and root for him wherever he goes.
I just appreciate that it seems the media has mostly learned when we were evaluating QBs with all of the tools and they just need that polish. And yes, I am talking about the evaluation of Anthony Richardson and how he’s 100% going to be the next big thing in the NFL
If you want the best assessments on QB, Chris Simms has you covered, he hits on the majority of his picks, but still self scouts himself and owns up to his mistakes.
Yep.
Tom Brady: 6th round pick
Joe Montana: 3rd round pick
Russelll Wilson: 3rd round pick.
None of these teams REALLY know what they're doing when it comes to drafting QBs, or drafting in general sometimes.
I think that Brady splitting time with Drew Henson did more to damage his draft stock than anything else, & for the next two decades he took that out on the entire league
@@TheNightOwl11683 Yep.
He stayed bitter about it, and it fueled him.
Gotta say i respect a man who can make a “This Dumbass” graphic that loud and point it at himself. Thanks Brett great content
watching this now not so sure you were wrong about Jalen and Tua being better.
To add support for this the Bears T formation, which almost all modern offenses descend from, was designed for a Single-Wing Tailback to be converted to quarterback, and Glenn Scobey "Pop" Warner designed the Single-Wing Tailback position and arguably the formation for Jim Thorpe, who was not just American Football's first great star but an Olympic Athletics gold medalist.
Your comment is too spot on and sophisticated for 90% of these football illiterates to understand
dennis erikson offense
It seems like a pretty strong argument can be made that the situation a QB gets drafted into can really determine an entire career. Get drafted to a bad team, with poor management, subpar coaching, and lack of roster talent (particular O-line) and that QB is going to struggle and likely fail.
Jalen Hurts is killing it now
I remember liking Dak before his draft and was happy when he got him. I thought he got drafted a round too low IMO
I think more weight needs to be given to teams offensive schemes, talent, and consistent offensive coordinators.
Geno Smith and Tua are perfect examples this year.
Can a select few QBs find success in spite of their surroundings?? Sure, but they are the exception and are impossible to predict.
Would love to see you do a video on Zach Wilson and his rookie struggles. A lot to tap into there
You were 100% correct about Tua and Hurts.
I saw Herbert and Allen being this good. To me, the two biggest keys to being a great QB is the ability to read a defense and the ability to make the throws. You can work with a QB on reading a defense. But you can not teach the arm. Plus... a great arm can help you cover up some of your other shortcomings. In my mock drafts, I had the Browns taking Allen No. 1 overall and I had the Dolphins taking Herbert (I felt Joe Burrow was the absolute No. 1 pick). Also, I am not sure if I was the only person, but certainly I had to be on a short list of people that thought Roethlisberger was the best QB in the 2004 draft.
There’s a really cool dynamic between nfl and college where the game doesn’t fully translate. Baker mayfield, Johnny football light up the college gridiron but aren’t as efficient in nfl. Lamar Jackson is one qb in todays game that was stellar in both leagues.
He admitted how bad of a take him saying tua and hurts are better than herbert and then they absolutely turned up this year 😭
I'm not a professional by any means, but most times I talk about QBs getting drafted, my gut is almost undefeated in if they're gonna succeed in the NFL. Darnold I knew was a bust before he was even drafted, Jones was gonna be mediocre (got that right), and Lamar had the highest potential. Only thing I got wrong was Josh Allen, I thought he was gonna be slightly above average, but as we know he's a lot better than that. But when it comes to evaluating QBs, go with your gut. You know a good QB when you see one, don't get into analytics with them.
Herbert as not a first round pick is still not as bad as Kizer over Watson and Mahomes. That was an awful take, even for then, coming from someone who still largely believes in those "old school" QB evaluation criteria. Kizer stunk in college, particularly in accuracy and footwork. It was obvious he was going to be a zero.
He loved Christian Hackenberg too. That one confused me even back then, and I’m a Penn State fan.
I believe he also loved the Osweiler trade to Houston at first too
I have a ton of respect for your intellectual humility and honesty!
You have to wonder how guys like Josh Rosen would have fared had they stepped into optimal situations like Mahomes, who was blessed with the best WR in the NFL, the best TE in the NFL and an offense in which Alex Smith had been very successful the prior two years.
Idk… this season it’s looking like you might’ve been at least close on Hurts & Tua…
Draft OL, DL or defensive stars first round. Much easier to mess up a QB because their personality can play a large part of it as well as surrounding team. Always draft a safe pick like an OL, DL or best player available, pick QBs 2-5 less risk and can get a great QB. More QBs drafted, only lose a late round pick on a riskier position and then you aren’t wasting a QB every 3-4 years because they bust and you flip QBs like the Jets, Jags, cards and such do.
Herbert and Rosen are my biggest misses in the past 10 years. I had Herbert as a 2nd/3rd round QB primarily because I was applying lessons learned during my Rosen evaluation. Herbert did not improve much over his 4 year tenure at Oregon much like how Rosen was his best during his freshman season. Seeing that many snaps without tangible statistical or mechanical improvement scared me off his talent.
Rosen wasn’t given a chance in the NFL to be honest. Dude was given a worse hand than maybe any first round QB in recent memory
@@MNZGamin Now I think of it the timing of guys like him who turn to 'what if' stories by arriving in bad spots makes me think. Because stable NFL franchises despite having a need for QB aren't going for retreads unless Rosen specifically has something that pops out about him. They are going to keep moving forward or address the QB situation in the way those current NFL franchise regimes want to move forward.
I think the number 1 characteristics for a QB is the ability to win the no-win scenario: 4th n long, #1 WR is out of the game, can he deliver? This is just an example but how the players deals with this scenario is what’s going to determine success. These days, everyone looks at whether the QB can throwing on the run, arm strength, if they can run, but it’s all about the no-win scenario
I'd be curious to see if the hit rate for first round QBs is significantly different than the hit rate for first rounders in general. It certainly feels that the first round selections, for all the hype they get, are not sure things, which is why you can see the Rams' reasoning for trading away those first round selections for proven talent.
The Rams picks are an in a different situation because by virtue they have late 1sts anyway. They can't even pick top 3~5 to try crack at another young QB prospect. So I guess the Rams upsold Goff AND their picks to another team with a true proven talent at QB in Stafford.
@@t4d0W Fair point on the picks being late first rounders anyways. It's important to remember that Goff was not an asset in that trade, the Rams had to add another first round pick for Detroit to take that contract.
One other detail is that some teams are more capable of developing QBs than others. That adds some suckage for teams that suck, because very often the bad teams are bad at both evaluation and development.
So some QB evaluation passes through the "how can we not screw this guy" metric. Having a very good coach helps
The draft is so difficult too because you really can be drafted into a bad situation and succeed. Look at the Texans-they had a good but questionable quarterback, an exceptionally young skill position room, and their defense has never really been stellar. Granted, they made good coaching moves, but did anyone expect the Texans to win their division with CJ Stroud? Texans were thought to be a 6-7 win team and suddenly became a playoff noisemaker (not necessarily a superbowl contender yet, though), winning their division when it was all but handed to the Jaguars. Overall, though, I’ve always agreed that destination matters a lot more than people give it credit for, and I think this video does an excellent job of articulating that.
The Air Raid has gone through a significant change in QB over the years. Before it was built on a QB with a quick release, quick eyes, and pop gun arms. That's Case Keenum on a nutshell. Now it's based around athletes that can make things happen on the ground. Running is now the third read in a play instead of a RB quick out. That's a pretty big change in philosophy.
This is a knockout video man! You truly exposed the bullshit buzzwords these media draft talking heads use and these wannabe qb experts on the couch like to use; polished, pocket passers, prostyle offense, can make all the throws, etc. I also think a lot of these old leftover old guard scouts with old ways of thinking refuse to change their way of thinking and that's why qbs like Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky and Sam Darnald fail and Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson succeed. As for Justin Herbert and Pat Mahomes, they were hit with the Oregon and Texas Tech stereotypes as past qbs from those schools never been great.
But you nailed it. What TRULY matters is;
1. Physical tools
2. Coachability
3. Destination
Good talent + good coaching + good front office = success
Work ethic goes at the top but yeah I agree
It’s a TEAM sport and most organizations fall for the lie that top ten QBs don’t need help to be successful!
If you don’t have a good Oline “oh a top ten QB makes the line better”
If you don’t have any WRs “oh a top ten QB makes the WRs better”
We have to stop with this terrible narrative because it doesn’t provide CONTEXT!!!
Can a top tier QB survive in certain unfortunate situations….yes, but it doesn’t lead to success. EVERY QB NEEDS HELP!!!!
Let’s stop acting like the Greats Don’t 🙏
Two big things:
1: What weapons did they have in college and what was the quality of defenses they were going up against
2: What weapons do they have in the NFL? Do they have a good offensive line? What conference are they going to?
A QB failing I feel is only ever partially on the QB unless it’s a deal like Jamarcus Russell who didn’t even take the time to study to improve his craft. A good offensive line and good receiver weapons can make an average QB look a lot better than they are. It can go the other way, a top QB will look like trash if they don’t have talent and key pieces around them.
Joe Burrow for example is already playing well, now imagine how good he’d be if he had an O-Line worth a damn. Lamar Jackson has an MVP, but he looked lost last year with so many vital parts of the offense out with injury.
I don’t usually put a QB’s failure solely on the QB. Yeah they’re the team leader, they get all the attention and it’s easy to blame them when things done work out, but there’s 10 other guys on that side of the ball that can help them. It’s a team game, failure is never one person’s fault. You succeed and fail as a team.
For me I keep it simple. No one picks 100%, but I feel I do OK picking winners. I drafted Herbert in fantasy his rookie year. I was laughed at for about 5 seconds then spent the rest of the season rejecting trade offers.
Pre Draft:
1. +arm strength
2. Accuracy on the deep ball
3. Can get ball out quick.
4. Are mentally tough
Post draft:
1. Where were they picked
2. Where are they going
3. What weapons does he have
For the pre draft criteria, I feel all of those things are the hardest to coach. If the long ball accuracy is good, the short accuracy is usually good. It's also much easier to coach up the short game.
Post draft is a lot harder. The real wild care is where they are picked. In 2017 if the Bears had picked Deshaun Watson, I think he still would have been a great QB. I think he would have overcome Nagy's obvious defects.
But he was also expected to be picked high. The fact that Trubisky was a bit out of left field, doubtlessly effected him. Having everyone question why you were picked before 2 other guys can't help but weigh on you.
I put less on the coach they are going to because again, Nagy. Everyone thought that he'd be Andy Reid 2.0 and would be an innovator.
After he got fired and after watching the on field product, we now know he is a rank incompetent and frankly a total asshole.
Unless it's a really established guy like Andy Reid or if the OC is really established with a long track record, its hard to know.
It also really can't be a factor in predicting pre-draft if a guy is going to be good.
Damn bro u gotta go take a look at this video again. Jalen hurts and Tua both might actually be better than Herbert now
14:50, to be fair, Tua and Hurtz are looking good this year
I came to say the exact thing when I heard him say that lol
Its not an evaluation issue, it is a training issue. When you get to sit behind a starter like Rodgers did with Favre and Love did with Rodgers, odds of success go up dramatically
A lot of people in general could learn a lot from Brett in this video. Someone admitting they were wrong. analyzing why and how they were wrong, then coming to a conclusion on how to improve. Great stuff.
My opinion is our assessment of quarterbacks' performance is so tied into the offense as a whole that saying "will this quarterback be good" is more asking "will the offense of be good next year with this quarterback on it?" And considering you don't know who's going to where, assessing quarterback prospects is impossible. A quarterback needs a line and backs to block for them, a running game to get guys in the box, receivers and backs to get open and come down with it, and a coaching staff to get all of that to work.
Imo, the entire perception of the league is way too quarterback focused, putting tons of praise or blame on them instead of the offenses as a whole. Ultimately, a quarterback is only one part of the offense, and one player, even a really good one, isn't going to completely change an offense. This is why the Saints can win without Brees (or Winston or whomever) and the Pats without Brady.
To be fair, almost every honest analyst missed on Herbert and regrets it. Doug Farrar often comments how he totally blew his project on Herbert. Plus, it's very rare a kid gets thrown into his first game at the last second and self develops on the spot. He's genuinely special and I hope the Chargers franchise gets their overall crap together to take advantage of their situation.
hilariously the Herbert story got me more invested on knowing who the Chargers OC/QB coaches are. So far I'm not convinced Lombardi and Shane Day are the guys who are going to juice the most out of Herbert's offense. Especially if you know Lombardi's track record with working with QBs not named Drew Brees who can throw down field.
Darnold is still one of my favorite prospects ever. It's so sad he ended up in the worst situation any young qb has ever been in. Hes never played with a pro bowler.
He sucks
@@blurzzmelo9547 At this point, it’s a fact. He was a turnover machine in college, and that has remained true with the Jets and Panthers
My man I’m a hockey fan and I could have told you that front office/coaching determines development more than physical traits. That’s the exact reason teams like the jets get into the playoffs once every 10 years then are a bottom 5 team the rest.
I think the biggest issue for these young QBs is they’re not given time to grow and progress anymore. If you’re drafted in the first round you’re just expected to come out and be great from the jump. That’s not realistic especially with the difference between college and the NFL. Players need a good environment to make mistakes and grow. Not play Hokey Pokey with starting or being benched everytime they mess up or aren’t amazing. A QB needs at least 2-3 seasons to be able to gauge just how good a player they have the chance to be. Additionally, bringing them to a defense focused team, with a defensive head coach with minimal offensive tools to help offset their mistakes only makes their growing pains look THAT much worse
I’ll love that the last two QBs I was REALLY high on were Lamar and Justin Herbert. I don’t know why I liked them, but I did. A lot.
to be fair, tua and hurts are doing amazing this year. as an eagles fan, i’d still say herbert is better as of right now though
I have 1 pillar when it comes to drafting QBs in the first round. Unless they are named Carson Palmer, don't draft USC QBs first round
Why is that? im not a huge college football fan so I don't know that much abt USC
Felt the same way about OSU and Bama
I feel like you was right with both evaluations both times , now and then . It’s just the game is changing and evolving year after year .
The pro style polished quarterback was they key in the 2000s and 2010s and quarterbacks with that play style tend to win big . Drew , Peyton , Tom , Aaron .
But defense specifically linebacker and safety’s are getting so good at reads and clogging up the middle & deep middle .
So offenses & quarterbacks have to be more mobile to keep the box full or stacked and keep passing lanes open . Aka
Lamar , Patrick Mahomes , Josh Allen , Russel Wilson , Cam Newton .
Herbert really did that 🤣🤣⚡️⚡️
I would like to get your opinion on Jalen and Tua during this season and the "regression" Allen seems to be experiencing. also on the resurgence of a guy like Geno Smith...
Brett: Talks about 1st round QBs
Also Brett: Puts a 4th round QB in the Thumbnail
The thing is that 10 years ago your 3rd point at the beginning was kind of true. It has only been in the last 10-15 years that the NFL has stopped thinking that “college” offensive schemes or concepts couldn’t work at the pro level and actually trying to use them instead of demonizing them.
At least the offensive concepts. In terms of defense the pros are still not 100% comfy bringing up the college stuff but some DCs have been moving against the stigma and getting great results. Bengals DC Lou Anarumo utilized the most 3-3-5 formation this past season and it was in the forefront in helping stop the Chiefs in the playoffs in the huge 2nd half adjustment.
Please do a Biography about Colt Brennan (University of Hawaii). June Jones was his coach and mentor, and Mouse Davis was June Jones’ coach and mentor. Given your “origins of the spread offense” video, I think you can further this topic by illustrating the true benefits of the system, as well as highlight unconventional and non-pocket passer styles (to which you refer in this video) and mechanics through Colt’s game highlights. I suggest you start with Coach John Madden’s gushing comments about Colt during the televised 2008 preseason game between the Redskins and Colts.
Arguably the #1 reason IMO why there’s barely a 30% success rate is whether said QB can adjust to the speed of the NFL
I don’t think people understand how many superstars this strategy has produced.. Dak Prescott had Scott Linehan, who ran the same offense as Dak did in college. Andy Reid is LITERALLY the dude who invented the air raid, again the same offense Mahomes ran in college. Cardinals draft Kyler Murray, and Kingsbury runs the same offense as Murray did in college, and there’s so many more examples. If i’m Caleb Williams i’m doing literally all I can to get to Washington
Thank you very much for this video. It is rare to find a draft analyst who admits any shortcomings.
As a fan I often wonder how so many guys can be great in college and look totally lost once they get to the pros. My sneaky suspicion was always that the players went to the wrong team. The old school form of coaching all players really of "my way or the highway" probably causes at least a third of why so many players, with decent potential bust out of the NFL. Thanks again for your honesty.
I think people have a misconception on why RG3 wasnt ever as good as he was his rookie year. While yes, he was hurt and he was really never healthy, washington also changed the concept from more of a one read offense that used RG3s skills, into a more pure pocket passing offense, which RG3 struggled in
[written in first few minutes of video] Character…look for character along with all the other tangibles. How do they behave in mentally stressful game situations where they fail to perform? And how they handle good fortune (with humility?). Yes, the physical ability is important, but without quality character, they probably won’t do so well in the NFL pressure box. Also, if they are picked by a team with a weak O line, they may get physically damaged too severely to excel.
It’s getting harder with 80% of defensive first rounders coming from a handful of teams, college qbs are playing against some bad defenders. So most of their film and stats are actually garbage. Location location is huge as well some qbs are good enough to overcome a bad team. Most teams with a stable qb position don’t draft a qb so rookie qbs keep going to the same poorly run teams.
Its not even that these stable teams can't draft a young QB. They just perform well enough that they are outside the top 10 range where these young QBs are going to be around and are still willing to use their mid/late round pick to improve their team with the best player or trade down and get more proven talent to fill in the gaps. But I think with the Rams move that it may shift a precedence where teams who are 'good' should just not value their 1st round picks that highly. Or have bad luck/injury year and finish with 3-5 wins to get to pick in a QB draft class to get a shot.
Projecting QB's is just naturally hard. The job is ridiculously difficult.
I swear if Malik Willis is there when the Titans pick...