Great show Steve. I've been following you and the Loonie hour since the beginning and love your insights and clear explanations on the housing market and the economy. Best in 2023!
@@saretsky Hey ? why don't you ever engage with women? Time to get some women on board for some one on one interviews. whatcha think? time to reverse the BLATANT sexism in real estate alll you men and your "boys clubs"
The low interest rates caused high prices so high rates have to push prices down. But sellers who say they “don’t follow interest rates” are idiots Bc it was a low interest rates that lead the market to sell where it was. Therefore now that it is up they prices have to reduce to sell.
Prices will rise in Atlantic Canada as people from the GTA are leaving there to purchase homes down here where the prices are almost half of what they are in Ontario. Example" 4 Br + 2 bath - 2,300 f2- double garage and workshop, huge lot in booming neighborhood -Only 400,000
This kind of increase in interest payments is not sustainable! Few people have extra 40k post tax, disposable income per year, on top of what they planned for when they bought the home! This will lead to corrections!
@@WhistleMaster Why did they take out such a mortgage and more importantly, who eats the loss when they default on their mortgages? Hopefully not the taxpayer...
@@mth469 absolutely! That’s the fear! Why should we who were responsible and live way within our means bear the consequences of the reckless BOC, JT and RE investors?
@@WhistleMaster Unless we get rid of central banking and their monopoly over the issuance of currency, losses of their cronies (the private banks) and all sorts of moral hazards will always be offloaded on us (i.e. productive society). Central banking promotes Crony Capitalism and it is / will destroy the western economies. The moral hazard of mortgage bailouts are an excellent example of moral hazard where banks deliberately issue these bad loans and profit from it knowing that the taxpayer will be made to eat the loss when it defaults.
You mentioned cutting rates would increase affordability. Wouldn't the house (asset) rise in price as they cut interest rates. I mean super low interest rates for the last 20 years hasn't really made houses more affordable. Infact it has made them less.
Like you mentioned, the foreign buyer ban is more a political move than an economic one. It was the low rates the were generally responsible for the lack of affordability.
@user-kd9cy1ql1t no because you don't get access to free money when buying a home but when you are in the market you get a big open ended bag called a HELOC to feed off of...and in this market the HELOCs are massive and have not been adjusted for today's current prices they are still based on Feb 2022 home values....
Im not so sure, that the boc, is done raising rates... i think werent in for more rate raising until inflation is under control... why do we think its under control?
The Fed isn’t done raising rates. Question is 1)Does BofC follow Fed and raise rates to stop loonie from dropping more and keeping inflation in check or 2) do they stop raising rates to stop the housing market crash but allow the loonie to drop to 0.67 exchange rate or lower by May and having all food, gas, retail, electronics, etc rise in cost by 10% more causing inflation to go over 10% in Canada by the end of 23 while its 5% in the US at that point
Distressed seller have been gifted with the golden bag of high uncontrolled rental prices and larger then normal HELOCS that have not been reevaluated for today's current price...I hope osfi brings in the new HELOC rules early this year or maybe at the next meeting....I think we need policy changes
Will the losses from mortgage default be passed on to the taxpayer via CMHC or on to savers, wage earners and pensioners via money printing. It's a total fraud that real estate gambling has the "buyer" and banksters getting the upside while offloading the down side on others.
Still waiting to buy a Vancouver detached home for under a million. So far there are only 5 detached homes under 1.4 million…. Nothing changes unless the money supply drops.
The Canadian Real Estate bubble 'market' fundamental(GTA/Fraser Valley) in 2023 will be a balancing act between Bank preemptive default restructuring instruments against the macro reality of rapidly dwindling valuations at price discovery by cpi inflation/reduced Mtg qualifying amounts and lower demand/migrations to more affordable locales. 2023 will be a year of self sustaining negative feedback loop 'cleansing' factors as it relates to all things 'Real Estate' in Canada.... just no way this recession is anything but severe, painful and extended.
I hate the idea of people renewing not having to beat the stress test but I can see that systemic risk will be reduced, which was the whole point of the stress test.
The economy is a derivative of energy. Not housing prices. Unless there's a breakthrough in fusion, Canada's oil sector will decide the fate of the country Imo
@@333KINGPIN33 please RUclips search: "the vital connection between oil and the economy revealed in two simple charts" (Peak Prosperity Channel) If you don't have time; skip to @13:30 What indicator would lead you to believe that energy isn't the single largest predictor of an economy?
@@333KINGPIN33 in economic terms (the part you're avoiding) oil (energy) will absolutely decide the fate of our country. *The single largest predictor of an economy is energy consumption.* This is merely a statement of fact. I have provided that data. *What indicator would lead you to believe that energy isn't the single largest predictor of an economy?*
How lame !! 'We will still be talking about affordability five years from now'.... sure. But not in the same way. Its the worst affordability in two decades. Its a once in a lifetime 5 sigma out kind of affordability. You need to come out of the veneer of real estate agent and look at things objectively. It can't stay like this for 5 years. Period.
Boc see more risk from inflation than recession and signal more hike are needed to combat inflation. But higher wages jumps in economy and become its permanent part so it seems higher rates hard to control inflation this time.
Great info as per usual.
Happy New Year to you and your family. 🎉
Congratulations Steve! Wish you continued success and all the best in the New Year.
Thanks. Happy New Year !
Great show Steve. I've been following you and the Loonie hour since the beginning and love your insights and clear explanations on the housing market and the economy. Best in 2023!
Thanks Walter happy new year !
@@saretsky Hey ? why don't you ever engage with women? Time to get some women on board for some one on one interviews. whatcha think? time to reverse the BLATANT sexism in real estate alll you men and your "boys clubs"
The low interest rates caused high prices so high rates have to push prices down. But sellers who say they “don’t follow interest rates” are idiots Bc it was a low interest rates that lead the market to sell where it was. Therefore now that it is up they prices have to reduce to sell.
The stress test has been shown to be inadequate and should be raised, not lowered :)
Prices will rise in Atlantic Canada as people from the GTA are leaving there to purchase homes down here where the prices are almost half of what they are in Ontario. Example" 4 Br + 2 bath - 2,300 f2- double garage and workshop, huge lot in booming neighborhood -Only 400,000
We need permanent job losses and job openings to tank to break the inventory stalemate and lower rent. 👍
GTA prices have basically bottomed. The high rent rates will put a floor under the selling prices. Especially on less expensive houses.
Every month mortgage terms roll over from 2-3 % rates up to 5-6% and the BOC is still raising rates, this ain't the bottom
Steve, I know Ottawa is looked at a boring market, but could you cover the ottawa market once per quarter?
Will try
Great stuff Steve!
4% increase is 40k in Interest on 1 million 😮
This kind of increase in interest payments is not sustainable! Few people have extra 40k post tax, disposable income per year, on top of what they planned for when they bought the home!
This will lead to corrections!
@@WhistleMaster
Why did they take out such a mortgage and more importantly, who eats the loss when they default on their mortgages?
Hopefully not the taxpayer...
@@mth469 bingo!
@@mth469 absolutely! That’s the fear! Why should we who were responsible and live way within our means bear the consequences of the reckless BOC, JT and RE investors?
@@WhistleMaster
Unless we get rid of central banking and their monopoly over the issuance of currency, losses of their cronies (the private banks) and all sorts of moral hazards will always be offloaded on us (i.e. productive society).
Central banking promotes Crony Capitalism and it is / will destroy the western economies.
The moral hazard of mortgage bailouts are an excellent example of moral hazard where banks deliberately issue these bad loans and profit from it knowing that the taxpayer will be made to eat the loss when it defaults.
Nice interview, Steve!
You mentioned cutting rates would increase affordability. Wouldn't the house (asset) rise in price as they cut interest rates. I mean super low interest rates for the last 20 years hasn't really made houses more affordable. Infact it has made them less.
You sounded pretty smart by the way. I just disagree with what you said about cutting rates and the relation to affordabilty.
If the mortgages have almost doubled.. Wouldn't that mean prices will down by half if the rates are held high enough for long enough.
Like you mentioned, the foreign buyer ban is more a political move than an economic one. It was the low rates the were generally responsible for the lack of affordability.
@user-kd9cy1ql1t no because you don't get access to free money when buying a home but when you are in the market you get a big open ended bag called a HELOC to feed off of...and in this market the HELOCs are massive and have not been adjusted for today's current prices they are still based on Feb 2022 home values....
Thanks for answering the question steve
Holy crap, was she a T-1000 model cyborg from Cyberdyne Systems?😂😂
Im not so sure, that the boc, is done raising rates... i think werent in for more rate raising until inflation is under control... why do we think its under control?
The Fed isn’t done raising rates. Question is
1)Does BofC follow Fed and raise rates to stop loonie from dropping more and keeping inflation in check
or
2) do they stop raising rates to stop the housing market crash but allow the loonie to drop to 0.67 exchange rate or lower by May and having all food, gas, retail, electronics, etc rise in cost by 10% more causing inflation to go over 10% in Canada by the end of 23 while its 5% in the US at that point
inflation combined with shrinkflation is in the area of about 20%....These minuscule interest rate hikes are doing nothing.....Willie
Distressed seller have been gifted with the golden bag of high uncontrolled rental prices and larger then normal HELOCS that have not been reevaluated for today's current price...I hope osfi brings in the new HELOC rules early this year or maybe at the next meeting....I think we need policy changes
Wait 1.5 years to buy. Prices will drop by half. Because foreign buyers are blocked.
Aren’t people tired of waiting by now??? How many years have people been calling for a collapse?
Ppl still think foreign buyers are a significant factor? 😆
Foreign buyers ban is a joke, won't be enforced and has dozens of loopholes and exceptions
2022 News Uber driver buys 2 million Dollar home in the GTA , 2023 News Uber driver Forecloses on 2 million dollar home
😂😂😂
@@bonbon4162 Did the Uber driver have any investments.. etc . Maybe he just drove uber to over his expenses or for something to do? link to story?
It won't be 2 million anymore. Lol.
Will the losses from mortgage default be passed on to the taxpayer via CMHC or on to savers, wage earners and pensioners via money printing.
It's a total fraud that real estate gambling has the "buyer" and banksters getting the upside while offloading the down side on others.
@@mth469 Yup. Welcome to the debt based fiat monetary system. Banksters always on the winning side.
Still waiting to buy a Vancouver detached home for under a million. So far there are only 5 detached homes under 1.4 million…. Nothing changes unless the money supply drops.
I wouldn’t count on it
The Canadian Real Estate bubble 'market' fundamental(GTA/Fraser Valley) in 2023 will be a balancing act between Bank preemptive default restructuring instruments against the macro reality of rapidly dwindling valuations at price discovery by cpi inflation/reduced Mtg qualifying amounts and lower demand/migrations to more affordable locales.
2023 will be a year of self sustaining negative feedback loop 'cleansing' factors as it relates to all things 'Real Estate' in Canada.... just no way this recession is anything but severe, painful and extended.
It's funny seeing canada and real in the same sentance lol
I hate the idea of people renewing not having to beat the stress test but I can see that systemic risk will be reduced, which was the whole point of the stress test.
ᴛʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴄᴏᴍᴍᴇɴᴛɪɴɢ,, ɪ ᴡᴏᴜʟᴅ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴛᴏ ɪɴᴛʀᴏᴅᴜᴄᴇ ʏᴏᴜ ᴛᴏ ᴍʏ ᴛʀᴀᴅᴇ ᴀɴᴀʟʏsᴛ ᴀɴᴅ ᴀᴄᴄᴏᴜɴᴛᴀɴᴛ ᴍʀ ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴅᴜᴀɴᴇ ɪɴ ᴏᴛʜᴇʀ ᴛᴏ ᴍᴀᴋᴇ ᴘʀᴏғɪᴛᴀʙʟᴇ ɪɴᴄᴏᴍᴇ
Mortgage renewals are automatic unless you switch banks.
The economy is a derivative of energy. Not housing prices. Unless there's a breakthrough in fusion, Canada's oil sector will decide the fate of the country Imo
A bit more nuanced than that. OPEC decides the price of oil and government policies and regulations underpin supply in developed nations
@@333KINGPIN33 please RUclips search: "the vital connection between oil and the economy revealed in two simple charts" (Peak Prosperity Channel)
If you don't have time; skip to @13:30
What indicator would lead you to believe that energy isn't the single largest predictor of an economy?
@@Picklemedia your comment around Canada's oil sector will decide the fate of the country is not sound...
@@333KINGPIN33 in economic terms (the part you're avoiding) oil (energy) will absolutely decide the fate of our country. *The single largest predictor of an economy is energy consumption.* This is merely a statement of fact. I have provided that data.
*What indicator would lead you to believe that energy isn't the single largest predictor of an economy?*
Boc is going to have to react sooner than later in the rate cuts.
I wanted to ask you about home affordability... Steve laughs. Say no more :)
Be careful Steve! She may just devour you, that one.
ᴛʜᴀɴᴋs ғᴏʀ ᴄᴏᴍᴍᴇɴᴛɪɴɢ,, ɪ ᴡᴏᴜʟᴅ ʟɪᴋᴇ ᴛᴏ ɪɴᴛʀᴏᴅᴜᴄᴇ ʏᴏᴜ ᴛᴏ ᴍʏ ᴛʀᴀᴅᴇ ᴀɴᴀʟʏsᴛ ᴀɴᴅ ᴀᴄᴄᴏᴜɴᴛᴀɴᴛ ᴍʀ ᴅᴀɴɪᴇʟ ᴅᴜᴀɴᴇ ɪɴ ᴏᴛʜᴇʀ ᴛᴏ ᴍᴀᴋᴇ ᴘʀᴏғɪᴛᴀʙʟᴇ ɪɴᴄᴏᴍᴇ
Stevo my man... When you getting a real job? Might wanna start practicing "and would you like fries with that".
How lame !! 'We will still be talking about affordability five years from now'.... sure. But not in the same way. Its the worst affordability in two decades. Its a once in a lifetime 5 sigma out kind of affordability. You need to come out of the veneer of real estate agent and look at things objectively. It can't stay like this for 5 years. Period.
Boc see more risk from inflation than recession and signal more hike are needed to combat inflation. But higher wages jumps in economy and become its permanent part so it seems higher rates hard to control inflation this time.
Bank of Canada follows the FED and was created and owned by “The Crown”. Just looks and see who’s face is on our currency.
What’s it like seeing the disaster unfold realtors helped happen
My only dream in life is a real estate crash