I've actually been thinking of reaching a portfolio-adviser, my 401k and stocks been losing everything it's gained since 2019, mind if I looked-up this one coach you use?
Entering into the tradIng world without the help of a professional trader and expecting pr0fits is like turning water into wine, you would need a miracle, that's why I trade with Abbreu John, his skill sets are exceptional
His training program has been insightful, and I must say, I'm most honoured to have been part and a full-time beneficiary of his daily signals. I have been growing & have been able to increase my portfolio from 1.5BTC to more than 4.5BTC with his daily signals...
The next CPI reading will be higher because oil and gas prices have spiked again resulting in higher fuel costs. I just don't see costs going down to a significant enough degree to warrant a pivot. In addition, it's so typical in Canada for people to panic over a house price correction, but remain curiously silent when prices go up astronomically. In 2019, the average Canadian home was priced at $454,776. Now it is $640480 despite the large drop in prices recently. Does that look like a crash to you? Another good indicator is that restaurants are still packed with people, despite the costs going up. If the BOC and Fed end up pivoting, good luck ever getting rid of inflation. This is literally a play by play of what happened in the 1970s. Inflation is in the driver's seat, not the BOC or the Fed.
They would like real estate prices to go up 20% every year, that would still be considered normal LOL. Even at this stage, prices haven't really gone down much in greater Vancouver. Sales have gone down but not prices. I guess sales hurt realtors more than lower prices.
Anyone who trusts what a banker/politician/bureaucrat says gets what they deserve. Everyone just thought they would inflate their way out of a 1.8m$ mortgage they needed a gifted down payment for. Sorry dummy, you're stuck with it.
Reasons for the new construction crash: 1) developers haven’t repriced. If they had, people would be buying. 2) developers use predatory contract language. Even if I bought a pre-construction unit the developer could randomly demand more money a year from now. 3) the asshole gamblers who bought multiple pre-con units that they have no ability to close on now need to cut their losses.
developer costs keep on going up and up and up, more city taxes/developer charges, higher labour, materials.............WHY WOULD THEY REPRICE LOWER. the rest of your rant is pure gibberish.
@@jimmybaggs5342 they won't reprice lower lmao....they will just delay their project for 2+ years. If the shovel isn't in the ground already, they prob already gave buyers a 1+ year delay minimum. Like I said their costs keep going up so lowering the price isn't an option. Banks require a certain profit margin minimum before they get construction funding, otherwise the project is shelved PERMANENTLY. People won't be taking losses (that is your delusion), stuff just won't get built and there will be an even greater shortage in the future.
There was a lot more real estate agents posting weekly content when prices were going up. What happened to them? They have nothing to say when prices are going down ??
Inflation is out of control Govts are to blame! Society has gotten to greedy and weak, as the saying goes Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” Hard times are here Everyone wants something for nothing!
Steve I really appreciate how you’re bringing more and more data and tangible unbiased information and expertise to the show. It’s very valuable information and discussion. 👍
He's not talking about diesel running out by November 21st. Everything will come to a screeching halt with transportation of even food to your local markets.
It appears the Supply part of the curve was cheap money, and the Demand part of the curve was where to get the best return with the cheap money. That it was applied to the housing industry seems to be as incidental as it was applied to every other overblown asset class.
Steve - love what you do on your clips here, love the consistency and the in depth opinion you share. As a local mortgage specialist myself it's fun and refreshing to watch. Keep up the great work, it's good stuff!
Couple percentage points and suddenly supply isn’t the issue anymore. Guess the whole lack of supply argument for house prices mooning was just a poor excuse for low interest rates fueling speculation. 😂
He already said developers have deep pockets and can postpone projects for a few years leading to less supply. 80% of a project needs to be pre-sold before a bank will finance you.
There is still a huge supply problem. You can’t find any listings hardly at all. The ones listed are mostly just stupidly priced and will never even get a viewing. I’d say ten percent of the market is made of actually sellers. The rest are just fisherman
@@justinjones5281 the fact house sales can come to a complete halt with higher rates suggest new immigrants looking for homes to live in was not remotely the key driver behind house prices.
@@CountSessine maybe I’m interpreting your numbers incorrectly, but if I take them at face value, population growth compounding over 20 years at 2% is just shy of a 50% increase, compared to about a 26% increase in housing stock. Now last time I checked, most homes house (considerably) more than 1 person, and most immigrants are not solo individuals. So assuming we had enough housing 20 years ago, building 1 house for every 2 people seems very much sufficient.
Housing became a financial asset class in the late 1990's. By the 2008 crash this had become the debt crisis to end all, UNTIL 2023. Housing before 2000 was a consumer good. When Wall Street and the Feds decided to securitize mortgage debt it sounded like a great idea to inject liquidity (debt) that was supposed to make owning a home affordable and accessible. GREED took over with massive institutional investment in mortgage debt, in rental housing (including single family), in commercial buildings and commercial debt. And the 2006=2008 bubble inflated and then popped. Well guess what, with a few differences the bubble inflated from 2015 and then in 2020-2022 went insane with artificial interest rates, easy to get loan insurance, HELOC access and GREED to earn fees. Lenders, realtors and governments fed the FOMO frenzy. Homeowners are defenceless. VRBO and AirBNB played a role. I predict a true value crash with mortgage rates as high as 10% for at least 3 years. Prices will never recover - UNTIL the next GREED bubble with a new generation of gullible borrowers getting fleeced slowly at first without knowing it..The Great 2015-2022 Ponzi Scheme is already crumbling.
You said typical Canadian family as an example “has $500k mortgage”… herein, hidden in your shrouded nonchalance is the issue- until 5 years ago NOBODY on avg had 500k mortgage. Realtors & speculators can push the narrative as loudly as they desire but simple math tells you that avg incomes never justified 500k mortgages. Interest is the price of money, it has been cheapened for over 15yrs- your arguments in favour of nonsensical low rates are self serving- leveraged speculation is my right, as as owning my folly is too. BoC made a huge error in this round- the end result will be greater pain for everyone sadly.
Its not finding its value when income is stuck- anyone who today still argues that doubling since 2017 was reasonable is plainly deluded- nevertheless, economic reality will correct all the ludicrous mispricing.
It’s not about income, it’s about Canada’s money supply compared to assets. The amount of money in circulation vs assets…. The money supply is there but the gap between the rich and poor is significant.
Im in constr. Major developer put on backburner 5 projects (4 towers), the other dev. project is over budget. May not proceed. Typical. Constr Co refocusing on Institutional work. It is busy now, but 2023 will be brutal.
Nice video, great comparison on 500K variable mortgage then and now and construction starts and layoffs to come in that sector. Vancouver and Toronto have highly valued real estate. 500K or million dollar mortgages is high. If you look at other real estate markets mortgage amounts are much lower, the impact will not be as severe.
Pretty sure the "immigrants will save housing" thesis is dead after such dismal new home sales with the highest ever immigration numbers this year in Canada.
@@matthewodette1406 yep. That’s what we get. All from sh-thole countries where the Pope is not the head of the church there. Just awesome. Just awesome.
The government killed the investor immigration program a few years ago but it didn’t help with housing prices. Millions of rich Chinese are desperate to escape the COVID lockdowns if only Canada will take them.
Here are a few points on why the market will crash next year due to large inventory and negative market sentiment. Please prove me wrong…. 1. Market sentiment will be at a all time low in March when the year over year data is -20+%. 2. Investors forced to sell there property. Most big market investors charge rent less than there Mortage payment, )cash negative month over month). They rely on house values going up 10-30% a year to make up for the monthly losses. Those days are gone. 3. Record high unemployment. With new construction sales down 96% in the GTA and 1% of the GTA are real estate agents, where are they going to work. We could see double digit unemployment summer 2023. 4. 40% all all home listing in the GTA took there house of the market. They will be relisting in spring 2023 when the realize that it isn’t going to get any better.
@@cricketlovervaruns Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now? How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Lots of investor was buying new homes.. Competing with home buyers. Investor has taken a step back. Home buyer has hit the affordability threshold. My opinion only.
@@saretsky do you have the year over year numbers for inventory? I think it's very important to talk about the inventory numbers with the sales numbers
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 (dropped 100k from feb 2022) right now? How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
I think it’s more then that. 5% on 500k is 25k a year just interest. So like 2100 a month interest then principle payment would be an additional $1500 probably
If you are buying preconstruction as a buyer you are playing with fire!!! In Oakville many buyer's are upset the builders are selling same model for 300k. Less. This is the market as bank appraisal are coming in very low....)
No much any change is noticed in new home sales prices as interest rates are still at historical low. It will take long long time to settle the prices. The new buyers have to a carry big payment as compare to renting the same type accommodation.
Not sure what area of Canada your talking about. Here in Ottawa some new home construction builders are willing to negotiate down 50-70K from peak in Feb.
i agree we are all in this together, it just sucks that most of us are more affected than others, specifically realtors that pumping the price of housing, bidding wars at its finest. most realtors don't educate their client they just want people to buy or sell then forget about us. FACTS.
one realtor wants to pump it, the other realtor on the other side wants it for the cheapest possible price. the difference being is how many people are in the bidding war because supply is near 0..... realtors do NOT affect current or future supply
ow you prolly a realtor huh? lol. i didn't fomo in the last crazy market but i knew a lot of people did. I can't say that people who bought at the peak is uneducated in market like this, but it would be nice if a realtor or a broker actually explains what's going to happen or what's going on in the market right? but no most of them just want to to buy and sell. i'm not saying all of them are bad but jeez i saw a lot
@@kianong342 nope wrong again, I ain't a realtor. a realtor advises you if the deal is good or bad......it is the buyer or seller that know more about their own budget. i see more realtors trying to sell for a basement price to get it through quickly than ones that will fight for top dollar which requires real work (unless there's a 10+ bidder auction of course) realtors make their money on volume, not if they can get another 100k for their client by holding out for 6 months.
Are you able to put the $1k+ increase of monthly mortgage payments in context vs. either average total household savings or monthly savings? Trying to understand the increase vs. households’ abilities to afford it. Thanks!
January Feb will be a time when news outlets will start reporting 20 to 30% price drops as they compare yearly prices. That is when they will pivot imo
The Canadian economy won’t exist long-term by simply importing and housing immigrants, and it isn’t rocket science to say so. The housing market has been a cancer on our country, and it seems you refuse to acknowledge this. Rich certainly did in your last show.
cope much? cry more. prices go up because there are more high paying tech jobs....obviously not you. prices follow income (and demand)....guess what, wages in the highest percentiles are going up at the fastest rates.
@@sharinglungs3226 I'm at 30% LTV meaning mostly equity. I'm good either way. I'm part of the cohort that has no mortgage. You definitely love crying constantly tho. Tell me you're a renter without telling me you're a renter.
@@donm2067 nothing stopping you from selling your place for one dollar. the market is what it is because of the lack of supply......and in general when most people don't make any money on the operations side (monthy cashflow), they don't build more units just for kicks
Not enough people pay attention to the banking system, fed, central banks etc. If you did you’d know the low rates weren’t sustainable and at some point they’d have to raise. Locked in early ‘21.
@@marcelmed4574 Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now? How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Wannnnnnh the developers the developers what are we going to do for the poor developers? We must save the developers!!!! A housing crash and re price is not pretty. It’s messy and ugly. That’s how it is folks. Build your country on a housing bubble and this is what you get. We avoided this for a decade. Time to pay the bill.
Developers have very deep pockets. Developers don’t get financing for a project until is 80% sold and people can’t just walk away from a pre-sale without huge consequences.
the domino affect this will have on everything is scary. i m employed in the forest industry this building drop will directly affect that and everything related...
They are balancing out the impact on the stock market which ends up being almost immediate, and the actually economic impact. I think it was prudent to slow the increases from here. But people need to get it into their heads rates aren't going down anytime soon and prices have not compensated for these very rapid increases. The momentum is downward and on a chart, the real price support is down at 2016-2018 levels. Great video Steve. I'm not much of a supporter of gov't getting involved in any sector producing things but I think if they teamed up at arms length with smaller developers they could continue to forge ahead with home production of smaller 5-6 story buildings densifying cities while providing competitive housing solutions..... but it would have to be at arms length supporting the finance side of projects or they would most certainly screw things up. Worse turn each project into forced public housing supply.
Really, just liberalizing residential zoning laws and making development non-political and predictable would largely solve the problem. The government is already heavily involved in development - stopping development, interfering with development, making development risky and unpredictable. If they would just get out of the way we would be making great progress. But these rules and regulations are actually very popular. Voters don't want their neighborhoods to change.
@@CountSessine totally agree about addressing all of the things you mentioned. But I’d say, it doesn’t always follow that real estate prices drop because supply increases relative to end user demand. NYC has seen a massive explosion of supply but developers and investors/flippers have kept prices stubbornly high. The govt needs to make smaller developments an attractive option. Collectives, coops building their own smaller developments, homeowners given support to build stacked 4 story semis, wider lots should be green light quickly. So many options to support smaller developers. But these people need the support of govt and banking sectors.
@@kevinn1158 You're singing from my song-sheet - I completely agree. Indeed, small-scale development (duplexes, triplexes, rowhouses, townhouses, low-rises) are essential because they're less risky for developers if the market turns around. But they're also almost impossible to build because of zoning restrictions. One way or another, you need to liberalize zoning laws and take power away from city councilors and their NIMBY constituents. Whether its partnering with developers or just getting out of the way, NIMBY's don't want you in the neighborhood either way.
@@CountSessine Exactly. I own a house right in downtown Toronto and I’ve witnessed the crazy zoning rules, and downtown councillors trying to buy votes from the NIMBYS first hand. It’s mind boggling these donkey councillors have the audacity to talk about affordable housing. These morons use Affordable when they really mean public housing.
Having professional mentor is also very important when it comes to trading, without proper mentorship, one tends to opt out of the market early enough. I do my investment on Derek's platform.
In it together? No we are not. 10% of city income? Have you counted how much city loses due to outflow of qualified workforce giving up on opening business or even live in that city?
Thanks! Don't listen to the plebs, no one who understands economics would assume the BoC would raise rates this much this fast, no one. Most people are too dumb to comprehend why, which is why so many can't comprehend why bitcoin is so much better than this shit system of money we have.
Wow, you are literally Stockholm syndrome. Bitcoin was probably released by the bankers to beta test it, once we have that system it's over, they will control everything. Anyone who trusts what a banker/politician/bureaucrat says obviously doesn't understand economics OR history. You don't get to cherry pick highlights of the past 20 years to say that's how the system works. Keynesian economics has been dying since the 70's, but we're trying to keep it together so the boomers can have a pension.
@@donm2067 hi I'm a real person, feel free to schedule a video chat with me to discuss economics since you're such a wizard, I've got a masters degree in finance amd my dissertation involved studying the history of world economics. Your assu ption that I trust bankers is literally the opposite of what a bitcoiner thinks. Your thoughts that the banks invented bitcoin are not only ridiculous but also have zero base. Nice to meet you Don, I look forward to chatting with you if you have any balls.
@@thanks4that261 you want everything on a ledger controlled by banks... Let's go, I'm just a layman. Please tell me why this could not have been predicted. My immediate rebuttal: everyone knew it was going 1 of 2 ways, hyper inflation OR rapid interest rate hikes. The BOC even told us a year ago they were going to aggressively hike. If you were as smart as you think you are, instead of being indoctrinated, you could come to terms with our global financial predicament.
@@thanks4that261 also my belief the banksnhad a hand in BTC is more likely than some figment of imagination. Why not say the Easter Bunny made it to save us.
@@donm2067 global financial predicament... in my dissertation I learned that both Canada and the US had higher individual debt than ever before, couple that with highest sovereign debt ever, and the danger of aggressively hiking rates gets into sovereign debt crisis territory. Hyper inflation was caused by massive amount of money printing. Stopping QE earlier would have resulted in less inflation, raising rates earlier would have done the same. I don't what where you say the BoC say that they're going to raise aggressively. I saw last year tiff macklem state that the people of Canada can borrow without worry because they weren't going to raise rates until 2023. Did you not see him say that? And don't think this is out of fear, I have 2 houses but only one is in Canada, and I've got cash to buy up cheap assets when things crash, so I'm not worried about things going up or down, I've positioned myself for both a crash or a rally. My point is factually based, not emotional. I have had clients tell me they think rates will go up to 18% again... this is what people think, people don't understand anything about sovereign debt, the cost to maintain that debt, when that debt will roll over. Those are the ones that expected high rate raises, I've said it before and I'll say it now, it would've been better to be ignorant about economics a year ago.
One thing I do not understand is, if you got such low rates at the beginning of the year than why the heck would you not lock that rate in? - If you get a .25% mortgage rate then why do you go variable - it can only go up cant it?
Because variable is slightly cheaper than fix. And during the beginning of the year, most of the real estate agent And bankers we're telling their client that rate will not rise so fast. There’s an incentive for banker to push variable over fixed because it helps their target.
@@xinleizhang9624 This isn't entirely true. When I was an financial advisor I was commonly telling clients to lock in fixed as the BoC was hinting at raising rates as inflation was picking up in 2021. Some listened, some didn't and firmly believed overnight rates would go negative. It really was a period of peak moral hazard.
The spread was 225 basis point between variable and fixed. Given historically rates go up 25 bps at a time….that’s 9 rate hikes…that’s why people were advised to take variable and did - it was a rational decision given the spread of 225 bps and the BOC saying they won’t raise rates until 2023…and the. They raised 350 basis points in 7 months.
@@kingShadow29 You should be renting a room with that salary… share a apartment with a few friends. Seems young people don’t know how to make sacrifices…
@@kingShadow29 it’s the government’s job to help them. They either need to help themselves by getting a skill to get a better job or rely on the government for affordable housing.
Fact is houses are not crashing, prices are high again after 0.5 interest raise.If government really wants to lower house prices and rent, they should raise interest 1.5 % not 0.5 %
We are getting back to a “normal” interest rate and inflation/growth environment. Pain is part of the process (for some people). If you were a big fan of leverage and risk - you’re going to feel most of the pain unfortunately. But most people will come out the other side.
We are on the right path. Low volume for few months and the next step is reduction in prices and sales will rise again. What's happening now is actually normal and higher interest rates are going to be the new normal in this new age of de-globalization. What we had for past couple of years was abnormal, so there is no point in using that a reference. Anyone who went on variable mortgage during these times obviously didn't use their common sense. We were in a crisis situation, unfortunately this government and many others around the world made it into a huge party for some folks, especially in the real estate sector, now folks are having hangover. No worries, you will get over it.
Im on the side lines to buy a house and had to go get another pre approval and my buying power went down considerably. So there are buyers but not at these prices cause less people are qualifying for larger mortgage amounts. So im not a buy till price come down alot and im guessing there is lot of people like me. Cause everyone who could buy was pulled forward with cheap rates during the pandemic.
Still plenty of buyers sitting on the sidelines. I still remember when people where lining up with tents to buy condos from Onni at reduced prices during 2008
Funny to see Steve sweating about the real estate market. I am hoping rates stay up long enough to kill all of the investors who own more than one property. If there's an opportunity to completely obliterate those investors into complete and utter bankruptcy, it will hopefully turn Canada's housing market into Ireland, Italy or Spain. Canada also needs to lose enough high paying jobs for a long enough period of time so that the immigration policy is slowed down to an amount that infrastructure and social programs can increase accordingly to accommodate everyone at 1st world expectations. Hopefully the party is over, but I agree with Steve that the government will try everything to avoid it. I just hope that Canada gets put in the same situation as the UK and the bond market and currency is punished if they try stimulus again.
WRONG. This is exactly a laughing matter. My personal financial thesis is to see massive decline in all major Canadian cities. BOC having to defend the dollar when USA hikes crush the EX rate. Small and large developers will fail as often as everyone. Accounting thesis is to leverage every dollar able to. That’s why making housing a commodity was wrong 1980’s , 90’s, 2000, 08, 22.
@@steveshideler1333 LOL . Then go with it. In case you missed it . Houses are not a commodity or productive asset in real accounting terms. They are and should be shelter. But, stick with your thesis and I will continue with mine. Ever wonder why Buffet is sitting on billions in cash? He along with many old 🥎 balls have seen this movie. Survived it before . Positioned to survive it again. “ This time is not different” 🤣 good luck 🤞🏻
@@CANWESTTECH haven’t said what my thesis is at all. Just found it interesting that your financial opinion was just more true than others. Wonder what evidence you base your hubris on?
@@steveshideler1333 Listening carefully to 2 uncles on the New York stock exchange in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’’s that survived and did well for themselves. 40 years personal financial experience. Being a full on contrarian since 1992. Knowing a Ponzi scheme when it appears. Reading historic records of past economic, geopolitical, business failure events. Hubris is just confidence in having the scars to prove I survived and made it through. I called this economic decline in 2017 to my friends. When loans and mortgages became free, it was obvious the devaluing currencies would trigger some kind of event. Western democratic governments overshot covid financial aid to citizens and are now sitting on Everest debt levels to finance and roll-over at unaffordable interest costs. The only central bank that can continue to print money is USA. All others including Canada will suffer as they can’t monetize their debt at 4-7% inflation. Used autos became appreciating assets? This is a version of the 1970’s and 80’s with a modern twist. Let’s watch to see if central banks blink. have a prosperous 2023.
I basically agree though I think its global. The debt is effectively unpayable at this point so I think finacial system lockup and bank bail ins are coming. Just my opinion but I wouldn't be holding a lot of assets in the bank these days. If it all comes down, have some cash on hand ... likely be some good deals.
“It’s about time!” Bring down this house of cards so we as a world can re-built from the ground up, including punting the idiots like Powell and Macklem.
It was the boomers that built the world with blood and sweat. Millennials don’t stand a chance. Let’s see Millennials do the type of jobs that the booms did.
Wow those chairs and all those tvs in the back ground look expensive. Was that tax payer money that paid for that or did they make money to pat for that with there golden visa with no limit. Sure would like one of those cards.
In your video "Housing Affordability Will Only Get Worse in Canada, Here's Why", you argued that the market couldn't tolerate the 5 year rate going from 1.8 to 2.8. Well now we're over 5. What's your latest argument? For a decade I was all about keep debt low, cash is king, invest in market cap weighted index funds. Then I saw people who took loans to get 5% down and over leverage get rewarded with hundreds of thousands in net worth gains. I saw debt get rewarded, and the student loans I worked my tail off to pay down, end up going to 0%. So I take the bait and bite the hook. Not just you, but dozens like you finally wore me down and convinced me that the government and central banks will never let anything happen to the housing market. Fundamentals of economics be damned, it's now too big to fail. You've gotta just get into it. There were plenty more in this comment thread self rightously proclaiming the same. This channel is nothing more than an "I told you so" using only the benefit of hindsight. Yeah, that worked out great. I can't wait to hear what your crystal ball spits out next. In the meantime I'll be handcuffed to a house I can't sell setting my retirement back another 10 years. Best of luck.
They don't call him shill saretsky for nothing. Tons of people called him out just as the pandemic hoopla began, predicted the current state of affairs to the T.
my question is why do we these so called government people? what do they actually do for the society? I can do the job as good as they, just increase or decrease rate. Everyone can do that.
LMAO… the houses going bankrupt in next 12-24 months will be epic🎉. Looking forward to seeing the carcasses to pick over in next 1-3 years. Saretsky is whining about his own economic decline. Will he survive this crash?
@@Observer168 experiencing the ridicule before being proven right after listening to all the MMT zealots say it will be different this time. Seeing the panic to buy homes, stocks, etc.. with virtually free money was striking. Ask the Canadian banks and financial institutions why they preferred insured mortgage clients rather than uninsured high equity straight mortgages? They were hedging their loss to the Canadian government .. aka .. Canadian taxpayer.
Amazing video and thank you for breaking it down!! Despite the economic downturn, I'm so happy 😊I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $9,000 investment every 21days.
The crypto market is highly profitable with an expert broker just like Mr Ray Dalio I got recommended to him and since then my financial life has been a success.
I just withdraw my profits a week ago, it was so shocking when I withdrew $32,450 knowing I invested $3,000. I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills 😩
You did see the BoC only went up 0.5 last week instead of 0.75 bp? They won’t raise it to 10% because we won’t have a country at that point. They’ll print print and print even more.
New supply going to 0 woooooooooooooooooooo That means higher prices down the road as the housing shortage gets even worse and you have more than 10 bidders to the place you want.
I've actually been thinking of reaching a portfolio-adviser, my 401k and stocks been losing everything it's gained since 2019, mind if I looked-up this one coach you use?
Please how do I reach him?
thank you
Entering into the tradIng world without the help of a professional trader and expecting pr0fits is like turning water into wine, you would need a miracle, that's why I trade with Abbreu John, his skill sets are exceptional
His training program has been insightful, and I must say, I'm most honoured to have been part and a full-time beneficiary of his daily signals. I have been growing & have been able to increase my portfolio from 1.5BTC to more than 4.5BTC with his daily signals...
The next CPI reading will be higher because oil and gas prices have spiked again resulting in higher fuel costs. I just don't see costs going down to a significant enough degree to warrant a pivot. In addition, it's so typical in Canada for people to panic over a house price correction, but remain curiously silent when prices go up astronomically. In 2019, the average Canadian home was priced at $454,776. Now it is $640480 despite the large drop in prices recently. Does that look like a crash to you? Another good indicator is that restaurants are still packed with people, despite the costs going up. If the BOC and Fed end up pivoting, good luck ever getting rid of inflation. This is literally a play by play of what happened in the 1970s. Inflation is in the driver's seat, not the BOC or the Fed.
You don't need to keep hiking to seek the desired effect. You just need a higher for longer policy.
They would like real estate prices to go up 20% every year, that would still be considered normal LOL. Even at this stage, prices haven't really gone down much in greater Vancouver. Sales have gone down but not prices. I guess sales hurt realtors more than lower prices.
Canadian housing industry logic defies logic
@@cooldude5058 less sales translate to less commission for the year.
Ripe off the bandaid fast (6%+) get free money junkies cleaned up now. Then we can recover sooner.
Anyone who trusts what a banker/politician/bureaucrat says gets what they deserve.
Everyone just thought they would inflate their way out of a 1.8m$ mortgage they needed a gifted down payment for.
Sorry dummy, you're stuck with it.
My thoughts precisely
Reasons for the new construction crash:
1) developers haven’t repriced. If they had, people would be buying.
2) developers use predatory contract language. Even if I bought a pre-construction unit the developer could randomly demand more money a year from now.
3) the asshole gamblers who bought multiple pre-con units that they have no ability to close on now need to cut their losses.
Lol
developer costs keep on going up and up and up, more city taxes/developer charges, higher labour, materials.............WHY WOULD THEY REPRICE LOWER.
the rest of your rant is pure gibberish.
@@GreenBeanGreenBean They will reprice lower. I dare you to refute my other points, go ahead.
@@jimmybaggs5342 they won't reprice lower lmao....they will just delay their project for 2+ years. If the shovel isn't in the ground already, they prob already gave buyers a 1+ year delay minimum. Like I said their costs keep going up so lowering the price isn't an option.
Banks require a certain profit margin minimum before they get construction funding, otherwise the project is shelved PERMANENTLY.
People won't be taking losses (that is your delusion), stuff just won't get built and there will be an even greater shortage in the future.
@@GreenBeanGreenBean People are already taking losses, and it is just beginning 🍿
Any advice for a real estate buyer that is now signed onto a house with 200k less market value than agreed price? House still being built...
There was a lot more real estate agents posting weekly content when prices were going up. What happened to them? They have nothing to say when prices are going down ??
Interesting.
Way over paid photographers.
Realtors and mortgage agents have a special place in hell.
Scum of society, they are.
Steve, can you find out what percentage of the national RE stock that changed hands within the last say 2-3 years?
Inflation is out of control
Govts are to blame!
Society has gotten to greedy and weak, as the saying goes
Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.”
Hard times are here
Everyone wants something for nothing!
Inflation is caused by the central banks and the corporations that advised them to print trillions.
Steve I really appreciate how you’re bringing more and more data and tangible unbiased information and expertise to the show. It’s very valuable information and discussion. 👍
Thanks Max
He's not talking about diesel running out by November 21st. Everything will come to a screeching halt with transportation of even food to your local markets.
Steve do we have a stat for number of dwelling units in the gta and the whole of Canada? Thanks
Can you do an update on the Montreal market? Wondering if we’re going to see a strong correction here
It appears the Supply part of the curve was cheap money, and the Demand part of the curve was where to get the best return with the cheap money. That it was applied to the housing industry seems to be as incidental as it was applied to every other overblown asset class.
Steve - love what you do on your clips here, love the consistency and the in depth opinion you share. As a local mortgage specialist myself it's fun and refreshing to watch. Keep up the great work, it's good stuff!
Thank you 🙏🏻
Couple percentage points and suddenly supply isn’t the issue anymore. Guess the whole lack of supply argument for house prices mooning was just a poor excuse for low interest rates fueling speculation. 😂
He already said developers have deep pockets and can postpone projects for a few years leading to less supply. 80% of a project needs to be pre-sold before a bank will finance you.
There is still a huge supply problem. You can’t find any listings hardly at all. The ones listed are mostly just stupidly priced and will never even get a viewing. I’d say ten percent of the market is made of actually sellers. The rest are just fisherman
@@justinjones5281 the fact house sales can come to a complete halt with higher rates suggest new immigrants looking for homes to live in was not remotely the key driver behind house prices.
@@justinjones5281
Any listings where?
There's a house for sale on every corner.
@@CountSessine maybe I’m interpreting your numbers incorrectly, but if I take them at face value, population growth compounding over 20 years at 2% is just shy of a 50% increase, compared to about a 26% increase in housing stock. Now last time I checked, most homes house (considerably) more than 1 person, and most immigrants are not solo individuals. So assuming we had enough housing 20 years ago, building 1 house for every 2 people seems very much sufficient.
Housing became a financial asset class in the late 1990's. By the 2008 crash this had become the debt crisis to end all, UNTIL 2023. Housing before 2000 was a consumer good. When Wall Street and the Feds decided to securitize mortgage debt it sounded like a great idea to inject liquidity (debt) that was supposed to make owning a home affordable and accessible. GREED took over with massive institutional investment in mortgage debt, in rental housing (including single family), in commercial buildings and commercial debt. And the 2006=2008 bubble inflated and then popped. Well guess what, with a few differences the bubble inflated from 2015 and then in 2020-2022 went insane with artificial interest rates, easy to get loan insurance, HELOC access and GREED to earn fees. Lenders, realtors and governments fed the FOMO frenzy. Homeowners are defenceless. VRBO and AirBNB played a role. I predict a true value crash with mortgage rates as high as 10% for at least 3 years. Prices will never recover - UNTIL the next GREED bubble with a new generation of gullible borrowers getting fleeced slowly at first without knowing it..The Great 2015-2022 Ponzi Scheme is already crumbling.
You said typical Canadian family as an example “has $500k mortgage”… herein, hidden in your shrouded nonchalance is the issue- until 5 years ago NOBODY on avg had 500k mortgage. Realtors & speculators can push the narrative as loudly as they desire but simple math tells you that avg incomes never justified 500k mortgages. Interest is the price of money, it has been cheapened for over 15yrs- your arguments in favour of nonsensical low rates are self serving- leveraged speculation is my right, as as owning my folly is too. BoC made a huge error in this round- the end result will be greater pain for everyone sadly.
A 500k mortgage is just money finding it’s own value. Value of money will keep getting lower.
Its not finding its value when income is stuck- anyone who today still argues that doubling since 2017 was reasonable is plainly deluded- nevertheless, economic reality will correct all the ludicrous mispricing.
It’s not about income, it’s about Canada’s money supply compared to assets. The amount of money in circulation vs assets…. The money supply is there but the gap between the rich and poor is significant.
Is it time to invest in matches? Every weekend will we see another development mysteriously catch fire like in 2008?
That is funny!!! The ones that burned down their apartments in 2008 are still around today.
Im in constr. Major developer put on backburner 5 projects (4 towers), the other dev. project is over budget. May not proceed. Typical.
Constr Co refocusing on Institutional work. It is busy now, but 2023 will be brutal.
Great vid bud! I feel a bit better now 😱😭
Time to snipe those small builder presale deals. Hopefully builder's insurance won't get jacked up too high.
Everything is being jacked high now. Many small builders are also sitting on the sidelines. Many have stopped building until rates turn.
Nice video, great comparison on 500K variable mortgage then and now and construction starts and layoffs to come in that sector. Vancouver and Toronto have highly valued real estate. 500K or million dollar mortgages is high. If you look at other real estate markets mortgage amounts are much lower, the impact will not be as severe.
Pretty sure the "immigrants will save housing" thesis is dead after such dismal new home sales with the highest ever immigration numbers this year in Canada.
Funny that. We import 400k new Canadians and we can’t get a few hundred to step up to the plate on some product in the GTA?
@@jeffotoole4509 Feds lowered the immigration qualifications. We are now mostly bringing in wage slaves and renters.
@@matthewodette1406 yep. That’s what we get. All from sh-thole countries where the Pope is not the head of the church there. Just awesome. Just awesome.
The government killed the investor immigration program a few years ago but it didn’t help with housing prices. Millions of rich Chinese are desperate to escape the COVID lockdowns if only Canada will take them.
Here are a few points on why the market will crash next year due to large inventory and negative market sentiment.
Please prove me wrong….
1. Market sentiment will be at a all time low in March when the year over year data is -20+%.
2. Investors forced to sell there property. Most big market investors charge rent less than there Mortage payment, )cash negative month over month). They rely on house values going up 10-30% a year to make up for the monthly losses. Those days are gone.
3. Record high unemployment. With new construction sales down 96% in the GTA and 1% of the GTA are real estate agents, where are they going to work. We could see double digit unemployment summer 2023.
4. 40% all all home listing in the GTA took there house of the market. They will be relisting in spring 2023 when the realize that it isn’t going to get any better.
Except this could very well start from Jan or Feb. Most markets peaked in Feb and will already see large YoY negative from the very start of the year.
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
@@cricketlovervaruns Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Lots of investor was buying new homes.. Competing with home buyers. Investor has taken a step back. Home buyer has hit the affordability threshold. My opinion only.
Yep. Try closing on a loan you thought was going to be 3%. Now it’s 6-7%. Those new homes completing are going to really need a good Brampton loan.
Steve
Where do you get your presale numbers from?
Do you have year over year for presale inventory?
Zonda/ Altus
@@saretsky do you have the year over year numbers for inventory? I think it's very important to talk about the inventory numbers with the sales numbers
@@saretsky Steve?
I'm guessing the inventory numbers crashed as well. But you pick the negative for headline for clicks. Prove me wrong
Steve...do you remember I posted here in early April predicting 50% correction..I am still standing by my prediction .. summer 2023..
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 (dropped 100k from feb 2022) right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
I think it’s more then that. 5% on 500k is 25k a year just interest. So like 2100 a month interest then principle payment would be an additional $1500 probably
If you are buying preconstruction as a buyer you are playing with fire!!! In Oakville many buyer's are upset the builders are selling same model for 300k. Less. This is the market as bank appraisal are coming in very low....)
Centra Banks, supreme gaslighters. “Financial stability concerns.” Definitely not a consequence of them being too loose for too long 🤨🙄.
No much any change is noticed in new home sales prices as interest rates are still at historical low. It will take long long time to settle the prices. The new buyers have to a carry big payment as compare to renting the same type accommodation.
Not sure what area of Canada your talking about. Here in Ottawa some new home construction builders are willing to negotiate down 50-70K from peak in Feb.
Yeah only 30% lower.
i agree we are all in this together, it just sucks that most of us are more affected than others, specifically realtors that pumping the price of housing, bidding wars at its finest. most realtors don't educate their client they just want people to buy or sell then forget about us. FACTS.
one realtor wants to pump it, the other realtor on the other side wants it for the cheapest possible price.
the difference being is how many people are in the bidding war because supply is near 0..... realtors do NOT affect current or future supply
@@GreenBeanGreenBean no realtor wants to sell it for cheaper price, wake up
@@kianong342 if your buyer realtor rep doesn't want to get you the best price, THAT IS YOUR FAULT FOR NOT FIRING HIM
ow you prolly a realtor huh? lol. i didn't fomo in the last crazy market but i knew a lot of people did. I can't say that people who bought at the peak is uneducated in market like this, but it would be nice if a realtor or a broker actually explains what's going to happen or what's going on in the market right? but no most of them just want to to buy and sell. i'm not saying all of them are bad but jeez i saw a lot
@@kianong342 nope wrong again, I ain't a realtor.
a realtor advises you if the deal is good or bad......it is the buyer or seller that know more about their own budget.
i see more realtors trying to sell for a basement price to get it through quickly than ones that will fight for top dollar which requires real work (unless there's a 10+ bidder auction of course)
realtors make their money on volume, not if they can get another 100k for their client by holding out for 6 months.
Are you able to put the $1k+ increase of monthly mortgage payments in context vs. either average total household savings or monthly savings? Trying to understand the increase vs. households’ abilities to afford it. Thanks!
More $ to mortgage/food/gas = less disposable income/savings.
January Feb will be a time when news outlets will start reporting 20 to 30% price drops as they compare yearly prices. That is when they will pivot imo
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Material costs haven't come down much so Builders have no choice but to stop building. Therefore the volume goes down but prices don't change much
The Canadian economy won’t exist long-term by simply importing and housing immigrants, and it isn’t rocket science to say so.
The housing market has been a cancer on our country, and it seems you refuse to acknowledge this. Rich certainly did in your last show.
cope much? cry more.
prices go up because there are more high paying tech jobs....obviously not you. prices follow income (and demand)....guess what, wages in the highest percentiles are going up at the fastest rates.
@@GreenBeanGreenBean tell me you over leveraged in real estate without telling me over leveraged.
@@sharinglungs3226 I'm at 30% LTV meaning mostly equity. I'm good either way. I'm part of the cohort that has no mortgage.
You definitely love crying constantly tho. Tell me you're a renter without telling me you're a renter.
@@GreenBeanGreenBean I'm a home owner with 46%LTV, this shit makes no sense and needs to burn.
@@donm2067 nothing stopping you from selling your place for one dollar.
the market is what it is because of the lack of supply......and in general when most people don't make any money on the operations side (monthy cashflow), they don't build more units just for kicks
Not enough people pay attention to the banking system, fed, central banks etc. If you did you’d know the low rates weren’t sustainable and at some point they’d have to raise. Locked in early ‘21.
usually listen to Steve and Peter Schiff, gives me a good road map of where things are going
Steve listens to Peter and the like, and then parrots what they say.
@@derekbaker4942 Wow, I've never heard Peter Schiff give an analysis and review of the current state of Canadian real estate like this. LOL.
@@derekbaker4942 ya schiff report is about the fed and king dollar doesn't touch on Canada at all...
So my question is this, I'am planning on selling my Townhouse in the Spring and moving to Alberta. Would I be better off selling NOW vs waiting?
sell.
Give it away to your favorite charity...like Black Lives Matter.
Price the house to sell now, many sellers are getting bad advice from realtors and still pricing homes like it was Feb 2022. 2023 will be ugly.
@@marcelmed4574 Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Don't sell rent it.costs arent going down so prices wont either.
Wannnnnnh the developers the developers what are we going to do for the poor developers? We must save the developers!!!! A housing crash and re price is not pretty. It’s messy and ugly. That’s how it is folks. Build your country on a housing bubble and this is what you get. We avoided this for a decade. Time to pay the bill.
With interest
Developers have very deep pockets. Developers don’t get financing for a project until is 80% sold and people can’t just walk away from a pre-sale without huge consequences.
the domino affect this will have on everything is scary. i m employed in the forest industry this building drop will directly affect that and everything related...
They are balancing out the impact on the stock market which ends up being almost immediate, and the actually economic impact. I think it was prudent to slow the increases from here. But people need to get it into their heads rates aren't going down anytime soon and prices have not compensated for these very rapid increases. The momentum is downward and on a chart, the real price support is down at 2016-2018 levels. Great video Steve.
I'm not much of a supporter of gov't getting involved in any sector producing things but I think if they teamed up at arms length with smaller developers they could continue to forge ahead with home production of smaller 5-6 story buildings densifying cities while providing competitive housing solutions..... but it would have to be at arms length supporting the finance side of projects or they would most certainly screw things up. Worse turn each project into forced public housing supply.
Really, just liberalizing residential zoning laws and making development non-political and predictable would largely solve the problem. The government is already heavily involved in development - stopping development, interfering with development, making development risky and unpredictable. If they would just get out of the way we would be making great progress. But these rules and regulations are actually very popular. Voters don't want their neighborhoods to change.
@@CountSessine totally agree about addressing all of the things you mentioned. But I’d say, it doesn’t always follow that real estate prices drop because supply increases relative to end user demand. NYC has seen a massive explosion of supply but developers and investors/flippers have kept prices stubbornly high. The govt needs to make smaller developments an attractive option. Collectives, coops building their own smaller developments, homeowners given support to build stacked 4 story semis, wider lots should be green light quickly. So many options to support smaller developers. But these people need the support of govt and banking sectors.
@@kevinn1158 You're singing from my song-sheet - I completely agree. Indeed, small-scale development (duplexes, triplexes, rowhouses, townhouses, low-rises) are essential because they're less risky for developers if the market turns around. But they're also almost impossible to build because of zoning restrictions.
One way or another, you need to liberalize zoning laws and take power away from city councilors and their NIMBY constituents. Whether its partnering with developers or just getting out of the way, NIMBY's don't want you in the neighborhood either way.
@@CountSessine Exactly. I own a house right in downtown Toronto and I’ve witnessed the crazy zoning rules, and downtown councillors trying to buy votes from the NIMBYS first hand. It’s mind boggling these donkey councillors have the audacity to talk about affordable housing. These morons use Affordable when they really mean public housing.
You're right sir
You see many people remain poor because of ignorance
@@felipedennis6
Not because of ignorance, but because of too many scammers in the business
@@lucyk.humphrey6652
There are scammers but they are real brokers out there looking for investors
Having professional mentor is also very important when it comes to trading, without proper mentorship, one tends to opt out of the market early enough. I do my investment on Derek's platform.
if Fed follows up
with expected raise of 75 basis points, could be not best week for C$
In it together? No we are not. 10% of city income? Have you counted how much city loses due to outflow of qualified workforce giving up on opening business or even live in that city?
Vancouver and Toronto are growing in population. There is still a rental crisis….
Thanks! Don't listen to the plebs, no one who understands economics would assume the BoC would raise rates this much this fast, no one. Most people are too dumb to comprehend why, which is why so many can't comprehend why bitcoin is so much better than this shit system of money we have.
Wow, you are literally Stockholm syndrome.
Bitcoin was probably released by the bankers to beta test it, once we have that system it's over, they will control everything.
Anyone who trusts what a banker/politician/bureaucrat says obviously doesn't understand economics OR history.
You don't get to cherry pick highlights of the past 20 years to say that's how the system works.
Keynesian economics has been dying since the 70's, but we're trying to keep it together so the boomers can have a pension.
@@donm2067 hi I'm a real person, feel free to schedule a video chat with me to discuss economics since you're such a wizard, I've got a masters degree in finance amd my dissertation involved studying the history of world economics. Your assu ption that I trust bankers is literally the opposite of what a bitcoiner thinks. Your thoughts that the banks invented bitcoin are not only ridiculous but also have zero base. Nice to meet you Don, I look forward to chatting with you if you have any balls.
@@thanks4that261 you want everything on a ledger controlled by banks...
Let's go, I'm just a layman. Please tell me why this could not have been predicted.
My immediate rebuttal: everyone knew it was going 1 of 2 ways, hyper inflation OR rapid interest rate hikes. The BOC even told us a year ago they were going to aggressively hike.
If you were as smart as you think you are, instead of being indoctrinated, you could come to terms with our global financial predicament.
@@thanks4that261 also my belief the banksnhad a hand in BTC is more likely than some figment of imagination. Why not say the Easter Bunny made it to save us.
@@donm2067 global financial predicament... in my dissertation I learned that both Canada and the US had higher individual debt than ever before, couple that with highest sovereign debt ever, and the danger of aggressively hiking rates gets into sovereign debt crisis territory. Hyper inflation was caused by massive amount of money printing. Stopping QE earlier would have resulted in less inflation, raising rates earlier would have done the same. I don't what where you say the BoC say that they're going to raise aggressively. I saw last year tiff macklem state that the people of Canada can borrow without worry because they weren't going to raise rates until 2023. Did you not see him say that? And don't think this is out of fear, I have 2 houses but only one is in Canada, and I've got cash to buy up cheap assets when things crash, so I'm not worried about things going up or down, I've positioned myself for both a crash or a rally. My point is factually based, not emotional. I have had clients tell me they think rates will go up to 18% again... this is what people think, people don't understand anything about sovereign debt, the cost to maintain that debt, when that debt will roll over. Those are the ones that expected high rate raises, I've said it before and I'll say it now, it would've been better to be ignorant about economics a year ago.
I heard mortgage rate in the UK is 10%!
What is the BoC priority? Do they care about real estate or the stock market?
Neither
BoC care about inflation.
If inflation does not come down to 2% BoC will keep raising interest rates, and high interest rates will be gear for along time.
You are correct, but at the expense of the labour market?
Neither
One thing I do not understand is, if you got such low rates at the beginning of the year than why the heck would you not lock that rate in? - If you get a .25% mortgage rate then why do you go variable - it can only go up cant it?
People believed Steve that they couldn’t raise past a certain point and that real estate was the economy so they wouldn’t harm it.
Because variable is slightly cheaper than fix. And during the beginning of the year, most of the real estate agent And bankers we're telling their client that rate will not rise so fast. There’s an incentive for banker to push variable over fixed because it helps their target.
...the boc expressly promised not to raise rates back then till 2023 ...they lied or other
@@xinleizhang9624 This isn't entirely true. When I was an financial advisor I was commonly telling clients to lock in fixed as the BoC was hinting at raising rates as inflation was picking up in 2021. Some listened, some didn't and firmly believed overnight rates would go negative. It really was a period of peak moral hazard.
The spread was 225 basis point between variable and fixed. Given historically rates go up 25 bps at a time….that’s 9 rate hikes…that’s why people were advised to take variable and did - it was a rational decision given the spread of 225 bps and the BOC saying they won’t raise rates until 2023…and the. They raised 350 basis points in 7 months.
Alberta is calling.
The housing market is 70 percent over priced. It needs to correct itself to be sustainable for future gens.
Future generations can rent if they can’t afford to buy. Don’t make it sound like they will become homeless.
@@Observer168 that’s right when rent is 3000 and salary is 2500.
@@kingShadow29 You should be renting a room with that salary… share a apartment with a few friends. Seems young people don’t know how to make sacrifices…
@@Observer168 young people with Two children. You are out of your mind and hope you become like them to feel it.
@@kingShadow29 it’s the government’s job to help them. They either need to help themselves by getting a skill to get a better job or rely on the government for affordable housing.
Fact is houses are not crashing, prices are high again after 0.5 interest raise.If government really wants to lower house prices and rent, they should raise interest 1.5 % not 0.5 %
Comment on diesel running out in 3 weeks. Are you unaware of this crisis?
ie: these mortage bubbles are created by design. The whole system is rigged.
We are getting back to a “normal” interest rate and inflation/growth environment. Pain is part of the process (for some people). If you were a big fan of leverage and risk - you’re going to feel most of the pain unfortunately. But most people will come out the other side.
We are on the right path. Low volume for few months and the next step is reduction in prices and sales will rise again. What's happening now is actually normal and higher interest rates are going to be the new normal in this new age of de-globalization. What we had for past couple of years was abnormal, so there is no point in using that a reference. Anyone who went on variable mortgage during these times obviously didn't use their common sense. We were in a crisis situation, unfortunately this government and many others around the world made it into a huge party for some folks, especially in the real estate sector, now folks are having hangover. No worries, you will get over it.
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
Im on the side lines to buy a house and had to go get another pre approval and my buying power went down considerably. So there are buyers but not at these prices cause less people are qualifying for larger mortgage amounts. So im not a buy till price come down alot and im guessing there is lot of people like me. Cause everyone who could buy was pulled forward with cheap rates during the pandemic.
Still plenty of buyers sitting on the sidelines. I still remember when people where lining up with tents to buy condos from Onni at reduced prices during 2008
Funny to see Steve sweating about the real estate market.
I am hoping rates stay up long enough to kill all of the investors who own more than one property.
If there's an opportunity to completely obliterate those investors into complete and utter bankruptcy, it will hopefully turn Canada's housing market into Ireland, Italy or Spain.
Canada also needs to lose enough high paying jobs for a long enough period of time so that the immigration policy is slowed down to an amount that infrastructure and social programs can increase accordingly to accommodate everyone at 1st world expectations.
Hopefully the party is over, but I agree with Steve that the government will try everything to avoid it.
I just hope that Canada gets put in the same situation as the UK and the bond market and currency is punished if they try stimulus again.
Why so negative. You must be a pile of fun at parties.
WRONG. This is exactly a laughing matter. My personal financial thesis is to see massive decline in all major Canadian cities. BOC having to defend the dollar when USA hikes crush the EX rate. Small and large developers will fail as often as everyone. Accounting thesis is to leverage every dollar able to. That’s why making housing a commodity was wrong 1980’s , 90’s, 2000, 08, 22.
My personal financial thesis is better than yours… opinions are like arseholes, everyone’s got one.
@@steveshideler1333 LOL . Then go with it. In case you missed it . Houses are not a commodity or productive asset in real accounting terms. They are and should be shelter. But, stick with your thesis and I will continue with mine. Ever wonder why Buffet is sitting on billions in cash? He along with many old 🥎 balls have seen this movie. Survived it before . Positioned to survive it again. “ This time is not different” 🤣 good luck 🤞🏻
@@CANWESTTECH haven’t said what my thesis is at all. Just found it interesting that your financial opinion was just more true than others. Wonder what evidence you base your hubris on?
@@steveshideler1333 Listening carefully to 2 uncles on the New York stock exchange in the 60’s, 70’s, and 80’’s that survived and did well for themselves. 40 years personal financial experience. Being a full on contrarian since 1992. Knowing a Ponzi scheme when it appears. Reading historic records of past economic, geopolitical, business failure events. Hubris is just confidence in having the scars to prove I survived and made it through. I called this economic decline in 2017 to my friends. When loans and mortgages became free, it was obvious the devaluing currencies would trigger some kind of event. Western democratic governments overshot covid financial aid to citizens and are now sitting on Everest debt levels to finance and roll-over at unaffordable interest costs. The only central bank that can continue to print money is USA. All others including Canada will suffer as they can’t monetize their debt at 4-7% inflation. Used autos became appreciating assets? This is a version of the 1970’s and 80’s with a modern twist. Let’s watch to see if central banks blink. have a prosperous 2023.
I basically agree though I think its global. The debt is effectively unpayable at this point so I think finacial system lockup and bank bail ins are coming. Just my opinion but I wouldn't be holding a lot of assets in the bank these days.
If it all comes down, have some cash on hand ... likely be some good deals.
$500,000 IS a large mortgage for your average Canadian.
The average Canadian can keep renting.
@@Observer168 you’re average Canadian doesn’t rent though. Many are homeowners and mortgage carriers.
@@markhoffman Yes, around 60% are home owners.
@@Observer168 Yes, I think 66.5% to be exact.
“It’s about time!” Bring down this house of cards so we as a world can re-built from the ground up, including punting the idiots like Powell and Macklem.
It was the boomers that built the world with blood and sweat. Millennials don’t stand a chance. Let’s see Millennials do the type of jobs that the booms did.
canada clown show
Wow those chairs and all those tvs in the back ground look expensive.
Was that tax payer money that paid for that or did they make money to pat for that with there golden visa with no limit.
Sure would like one of those cards.
Canadians have been in major debt for 20yrs!
Debt is part of Capitalism. Debt is fine as long as you can handle the payments.
In your video "Housing Affordability Will Only Get Worse in Canada, Here's Why", you argued that the market couldn't tolerate the 5 year rate going from 1.8 to 2.8.
Well now we're over 5. What's your latest argument? For a decade I was all about keep debt low, cash is king, invest in market cap weighted index funds. Then I saw people who took loans to get 5% down and over leverage get rewarded with hundreds of thousands in net worth gains. I saw debt get rewarded, and the student loans I worked my tail off to pay down, end up going to 0%.
So I take the bait and bite the hook. Not just you, but dozens like you finally wore me down and convinced me that the government and central banks will never let anything happen to the housing market. Fundamentals of economics be damned, it's now too big to fail. You've gotta just get into it.
There were plenty more in this comment thread self rightously proclaiming the same. This channel is nothing more than an "I told you so" using only the benefit of hindsight.
Yeah, that worked out great. I can't wait to hear what your crystal ball spits out next. In the meantime I'll be handcuffed to a house I can't sell setting my retirement back another 10 years. Best of luck.
They don't call him shill saretsky for nothing. Tons of people called him out just as the pandemic hoopla began, predicted the current state of affairs to the T.
Turn out the lights the party is over .
People just going for a smoke break. Boom Bust Boom
Thanks Steve, the losers at the boc are feeling the stress from their friends Justin and his media.
BOC follows the FED
@@Observer168 I like turtles
There will be no crash. Inflation is here to stay.
I remember your videos only 6 months ago encouraging people to buy even though you knew that the storm was steering... you are a hypocrite
my question is why do we these so called government people? what do they actually do for the society? I can do the job as good as they, just increase or decrease rate. Everyone can do that.
Sure, go apply for a job at the BOC. I heard they pay very well.
Just quote the video no need to bore us with their drivel.
If they don't build u cant live.
Value in the resell market will spike on rate drops.
Povit has begun. Does not mean the RE market will take off again. But price adjustment may be finished by Fev 2023.
There is no pivot, terminal rate will go up to 4.25 to 4.5% and will stay there for a while.
Fuck unemployment, fuck financial stability. Stop kicking the can down the road. Just about out of road.
The salt in the goatee getting more prominent
Sure is 🤣
LMAO… the houses going bankrupt in next 12-24 months will be epic🎉. Looking forward to seeing the carcasses to pick over in next 1-3 years. Saretsky is whining about his own economic decline. Will he survive this crash?
Yes to all that!!
What do you gain from it besides seeing people suffer?
Hey a 3 bedroom condo in Scarborough Toronto is selling for 540000 right now?
How much do you think price will drop on them by spring 2023?
@every good thing comes to an end 🧐😳
@@Observer168 experiencing the ridicule before being proven right after listening to all the MMT zealots say it will be different this time. Seeing the panic to buy homes, stocks, etc.. with virtually free money was striking. Ask the Canadian banks and financial institutions why they preferred insured mortgage clients rather than uninsured high equity straight mortgages? They were hedging their loss to the Canadian government .. aka .. Canadian taxpayer.
Amazing video and thank you for breaking it down!! Despite the economic downturn, I'm so happy 😊I have been earning $ 60,000 returns from my $9,000 investment every 21days.
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@PROFITS_POINT_TRADE_Fx
The crypto market is highly profitable with an expert broker just like Mr Ray Dalio I got recommended to him and since then my financial life has been a success.
I just withdraw my profits a week ago, it was so shocking when I withdrew $32,450 knowing I invested $3,000. I wish I could reinvest but, too much bills 😩
I'm a long term investor. I Withdraw my profits of over £56,000 during the covid-19 pandemic
You have to enunciate your words better.
BTC moon time!
l
Interest rates to 10%
Come on!
What do you gain from it besides seeing people suffer?
You did see the BoC only went up 0.5 last week instead of 0.75 bp? They won’t raise it to 10% because we won’t have a country at that point. They’ll print print and print even more.
It is not home prices falling rather money is finding it own value
New supply going to 0 woooooooooooooooooooo
That means higher prices down the road as the housing shortage gets even worse and you have more than 10 bidders to the place you want.
So all time highs here we come!