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Why Biden Will Probably Stay in the Race Despite Democratic Dissent | 538 Politics Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 8 июл 2024
- 538’s Nathaniel Rakich joins the podcast to shed light on similarities between Biden today and Trump in 2016.
As the Senate returns to Washington for the first time since President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the president appears to be digging in his heels. In a letter to Democratic lawmakers sent Monday morning, Biden was adamant that he is staying in the presidential race. But it does not seem like the interested parties are taking Biden’s insistence as the final word on the issue. With just six weeks until the Democratic National Convention, how does this all end?
And following landmark elections in Britain and France, we travel across the pond for an international edition of “good or bad use of polling.”
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25th amendment time ⏲️
Follow Allan Lichtman, the real nostradamus of our time, when it comes to presidential elections. He has predicted every presidential election since 1984 through the use of his 13 keys system, which has been based on both hard science and real US History on politics. He said that according to political history, Biden must run again or resign from office to let Harris be president ASAP in order to retain both the incumbency advantage and party unity advantage for this presidential election.
Like Reagan?
Republics are inherently corrupt. We need DIRECT DEMOCRACY.
The voter support is inverted between Republicans wanting Trump to step down versus DNC wanting Biden to step down. Majority of Republican voters still wanted Trump - majority of Democratic voters, since the start of this election, never wanted Biden.
Probably the most significant detail between trying to compare the two situations. Beyond the establishment of the two parties wanting both candidate to step down, the difference is Trump polled favorably with Republican voters while Biden does and has not. And, probably not a good idea to think you these two scenarios reflect each other to use as a predictor.
A plurality of Republican voters wanted Trump. He got 45% of the primary vote in 2016. Had most of those alternate candidates dropped out a lot earlier, a real challenger would likely have emerged to prevent Trump from being the nominee, but they all stayed in well past their expiration dates. This gave Trump a way to hog delegates throughout the primary. So, no, it wasn't that a majority wanted Trump. A majority chose other candidates, but there were too many of them and Trump used that to his advantage.
@@bryanismyname7583 In 2020, he had several Republican contenders and he received above 90% of the Republican votes in the primaries, average.
In 2016, he was running against a smaller field and received - yes - 45% while Cruz and Kasich received less. Not sure how you convince a candidate who is leading the other candidates by double digits to drop out and let the lesser candidates win. No one would do that.
That said - that is the OPPOSITE of 2024 with Biden. 2016 and 2020, Trump had contenders and won his nomination handily. Whereas, 2024 has both candidates with no contenders. An inverse situation - you can’t compare to Trump in the past two cycles. This stands alone and can not predicted based on how it worked for Trump in 2016 or 2020.
Ergo: Trump won with actual competition in those two elections’ primaries - Biden could not do that in 2024, the DNC KNEW that. They don’t want a democratically elected president- they want the one of their own choice.
@@MediaFolkus In 2020, Trump had no significant opposition at all. they even canceled several primaries that year. There were double digit candidates in 2016. I know, cause I was a Republican at that time.
@@bryanismyname7583So Trump got 45% of the vote in the 2016 primaries and you believe that 45% was therefore his ceiling? Sure.
Joe will not Go - Jill won't allow him to.
I think he will probably go.
Im backing Biden. There is no other candidate. 🤘🏼
Video is back!
Well, this didn't age well.
This situation facing the Democrats has certain parallels to the crisis the Republicans faced in the wake of the release of the Access Hollywood audiotape.
Ever since Nate left its been obvious 538 could use some adult supervision.
Actually, Nate has been a very mediocre unimpressive prognosticator. Follow Allan Lichtman, the real nostradamus of our time, when it comes to presidential elections. He has predicted every presidential election since 1984 through the use of his 13 keys system, which has been based on both hard science and real US History on politics.
@@rossgoldberg5201 Dude you sound like one them trump Worshippers
@@juimymary9951 Get his book, the 13 keys to the White House and follow his RUclips channel. Again, it's all based on science and US political history.
Nooooooooo
NO ONE should "remove" President Biden.... AND President Biden SHOULD remove himself and step aside for #Kamala2024.
@@ChadBlevins he may not be capable of making that decision for himself and to not remove him from office would be elder abuse.
@@jl8942100% but also Kamala (while better than an elderly man dealing with clear & pressing mental issues) is not by any means a game winner
Follow Allan Lichtman, the real nostradamus of our time, when it comes to presidential elections. He has predicted every presidential election since 1984 through the use of his 13 keys system, which has been based on both hard science and real US History on politics. He said that according to political history, Biden must run again or resign from office to let Harris be president ASAP in order to retain both the incumbency advantage and party unity advantage for this presidential election.
@@TheCarpentersApprentice no one ever said she was a "game winner". Kamala Harris is objectively better cognitively and she is polling higher than Biden now.
Harris/Sanders ticket '24. Bernie would enthuse the Democratic base to vote and he will attract independent and third-party voters. Joe Biden is not fit to be president; so, Harris is the only viable option left this close to election (no one else can use all the money the DNC has raised for the campaign).
Who replaces Biden is not up for debate, it has to be Harris. We should be debating who replaces her as VP.
This is called putting something in the catalog on the 3% chance it might happen STUPID,
Oh I don't know. Seems a little more likely than that.
@@wadetisthammer3612 really it was 0%
@@fastjazz
I'm willing to bet real money that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee. If that comes to pass, then the probability was obviously not 0%.
.
VOTE 🔵
You do know that slogan probably won't move the independents...whcih are those who tip the scales, right?
@@juimymary9951”probably”
Lots of soy energy from the participants but love the show. Thanks guys.
Good. He has the best chance of winning PA, WI, and MI plus NE-2 to get to 270 for the Democrats.
No he doesn't, Josh Shapiro does.
If just 1% of voters switched from Biden to Trump after the debate, that's a 2% shift in the margin which means Biden has less than a 20% chance of winning.
Citation needed. Biden is well below where he needs to be. Voters hate him on the ticket.
Hit that hopium
@@TylerMillhouse Look at the 538 projection models of who wins these states. Rust Belt differs from Sun Belt states.
@@raiconlan1 Hit that Project 2025.
Kennedy 2024, no more duopoly for me and all I know.
His family needs the money that access to him provides. That’s all. It’s that simple.
TLDR: He's too arrogant to step down till he passes away from dementia.
unless Michelle Obama runs he's the best choice according to polls.