Historian Explains Why Dropping Biden Won’t Help Democrats | WSJ
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- Опубликовано: 8 июл 2024
- President Biden is under mounting pressure to drop his bid for a second term after an unsteady performance in the first presidential debate against Donald Trump.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly predicted nine of the last 10 presidents, breaks down why Biden still represents the best bet for Democrats.
Chapters:
0:00 Biden under pressure
0:55 How the 13 keys work
1:19 Why Lichtman thinks Biden should stay in the race
5:57 What’s next?
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#Biden #Democrats #WSJ
Biden tells Democrats he is ‘Running this race to the end:’ on.wsj.com/3LfORbj
Somebody should tell the Government, "Drugs don't cause addiction." Dr. Lonny Shavelson in his book "Hooked" said that 70% of female heroin addicts had been sexually abused in childhood. We are persecuting abused children. And then there is science. Addiction is a symptom of PTSD says Nobel Prize Winner in Medicine Eric Kandel in his book, "The Disordered Mind." Drugs fill receptors. What empties receptors (injury, PTSD) causes a desire for drugs. Drugs CAN'T cause addiction. Pass it on.
A vote for trump is a vote for a literal aspiring dictator.
to whatever end, where "whatever" is as clear as water from a mountain stream.
@@heetheet75 and a vote for Joe is really a vote for Jill and Hunter, it seems.
Good to hear!
Covering up cognitive deterioration isn't a scandal?
Ask Trump and all of his former cabinet or campaign staff.
@@meganann3876trump doesn’t have cognitive decline like Biden. Trump’s mannerisms and way of speaking is just simple, and a bit child like.
why hide it -- the media who is owned by the 1% spin it so those who saw and heard was told that wasn't what they saw -- gaslighted.
No because a scandal has to include a moral failure and be done by the president. Also Biden is mentally fine even though you don't believe it.
@@meganann3876 let's not act like children.
Thr democrats had 8 yrs since 2016 to remake the Party..they all slept .
Conservatives can't win a fair election. So. The last grasp of the republican party is a desperate grasp for unquestionable power.
Trumps is everything we declared independence from.
That is a fact. They just stuck with the old horses.
They bathed in DEI glory.
Now drowning.
Blame Obama
@@rolandnelson6722 he had a choice between Gretchen Whitman of Michigan or Harris, he played the race card like the dems always do.Im loving every minute of this.
I just got a Jersey Mike reg sandwich for 12 bucks... a GIANT is 20 bucks now.. The economy doesn't work for low-income people...
Jersey Mike et al pay their suppliers who stick to 'em. Corporations set prices, whoever is president takes the rap.
Never has. Trump won't help you if you have no skills. You gotta get a skill set
Trump is going to reduce Jersey Mike prices? lol
I don't understand how Jersey Mike's is even in business still, you have to take out a second mortgage to eat there
but the gaslighting continues
This guy is too tied to his formula. What we are seeing is unprecedented.
Agreed!
my guy, his formula works.
Are you crazy do you like democracy or a dictator do like to vote @georgelapointe52
The man predicted Trump would win in 2016; I think he's earned consideration.
@@whateverman2674 Not according to other experts. Look up what Nate Silver says.
If Harris runs she would lose
She is hoping Biden resigns so she could be President for a few months even if she loses to Trump.
Biden is losing already
She’s got a better shot than Biden if he can’t campaign effectively and.. it sure seems like he can’t
@@cevcena6692the left is taking the L this Nov no matter what they do. This debate showed everyone how bad they been covering for em.
@@cevcena6692they are taking the L no matter what. The debate showed they been running cover for years.
This guy literally said the debate won’t effect Biden just 5 days ago!
That still could be true. Hatred of Trump is so vile with some that they would vote for an inanimate object over Trump.
Let’s say they had to choose between Trump for the R and Adolf Hitler for the D.
They’d vote blue no matter who. 😏
@@alanmcnew5376oh yeah cause the Left is fully anti-semitic now. I’m connecting the dots 😂
He does not think that the dementia revelation is a scandal. Even if his model is correct, he himself is in a bubble and fails to correctly apply his own theory, which requires impartiality. In fact the dementia debacle is so huge that it threw the second key, "Primary Contest", into jeopardy. The incumbency key is also in jeopardy because Trump is also a former president, for which this model has no reference point.
Then there is the long term economy: inflation adjusted real growth has been zero. No real growth has occurred because it is just inflation increasing all numbers. Short-term economy might be fine or at least not in official recession.
Military victory - not happening. The only possible source for military victory is Ukraine, and currently it takes a miracle for them to suddenly launch a counterattack and regain ground that they have been steadily losing. At best you can argue that it was a victory that Ukraine was not immediately conquered, and they regained some ground at one point over a year ago. Military loss: Afghanistan, if not also Ukraine, but this aspect has been overshadowed by everything else going on and is unlikely to be a major issue. Social unrest from the Israel-Gaza conflict probably does not count as sufficient social unrest to lose the key.
If we really look at his model from nonpartisan point of view, Trump has secured 4 keys: Party mandate, long-term economy, scandal, incumbent charisma. He may have also secured the contest key because there is a real contest at the moment if Biden is forcefully ousted or not, and he may in fact share the incumbency key. Both military success and failure are tilted towards Trump. A pro-Trump view already puts him at 6-8 keys even if you think the relatively popular RFK does not count for the 3rd party key.
That's somehow true still. The debate was just more proof of what everyone already knew
What key is Lying and Covering up the pathetic state of incumbent 🤔
yeah! & the convicted felon key, the sexual assault key, the surrounded by angry shallow extremists key... not enough keys.
Lichtman is missing some keys because THEY NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in his historical dataset. This would include a Trump-descriptive key AND an age debility key. Lichtman has to be missing some of his own marbles or be in denial to not see that.
@@grumpy9478 Have you put in Election Rigging Key, Covering up Laptop key, Lying all the time key, Uncle Zombie key, Business with Ukraine key 😭
@@Jerisson and the ignorant masses voting for trump key?
@@jamisojo Makes sense than Ignorant masses voting for a Vegetable or a Fried Chicken 👍
Sorry to mention this. The “ultimate sacrifice” is not stepping down from the presidency. Those that have made the ultimate sacrifice are no longer with us.
FDR was voted in while having a similar mental capacity as biden so why not try
@@RetNavyChiefBTC I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
It is genuinaly cause for alarm that a "historian" will not recognize how "the ultimate sacrifice" is a phrase reserved for those who have given their lives for the country....
Trump is a patriot
@@vitesse_arnhemHahaha. Yeah, he ran from service. And he will run from serving time (again). That's darn patriotic.
As a moderate, I feel like they’re straining the definitions of scandal and economy. I don’t know anyone besides broadcast news that says the economy is good. (It’s good for Wall Street).
being complicit in an internationally recognized genocide could be considered a scandal
@sussolus That brings up the military failure part, as well. Leaving Afghanistan was a failure, Ukraine is unpopular with right-wing voters, and Israel is unpopular with very left-wing voters. There have been no military successes.
he brushed aside inflation like it was nothing. but if voters cant pay their
bills, count on regime change. people vote their pocketbooks.
replace the "13 keys" with " Its the economy, stupid"
It's not even good for Wall Street. A few tech giants are the only ones raising the market indices.
This was my thoughts exactly. I also consider myself a moderate. Facts are facts no matter which side likes or doesn't like them.
MSM IS D.O.A.
Allan Lichtman is not a Historian, he is a Democrat strategist.
@@bobgoss8930 a very GOOD one
Nope, he's a highly credentialed historian.
@@evacuevas5506 he understands sheeple.
@@genepoole1771 glad you like him.
He predicted Trump winning in 2016
this is like the political version of astrology
nope. its based on history.
@@dcrcortno it’s not. He’s been modifying his key BS since 2000 every time he’s been wrong. Look it up.
Muh history interpretations only work if you’re objective.
@@dcrcort lol not at all.
@@dcrcort it is not. This is pseudo-analysis. It's a "model" that can be tweak to prove whatever one wants.
kamala’s candidature would be a gift to the Republicans
It would indeed; and so is Biden's! 😂 TRUMP 2024
This sort of opinion expressed by 'Kevin' assumes bluster bullies can overtake smart, reasoned, and those that support smart and reasoning.
And they don’t even NEED your gifts
@@engletinaknickerbocker5380Biden, Kamala, Trump. One thing they have in common is that they are all neither smart nor reasoned
Trump is a super weak candidate and she could easily beat him. Most voters didn't want Biden or Trump. LOL
I did my own assessment of the 13 keys for Biden vs. Trump and it seems to me that at least 2-3 of the keys that were in Biden's favor have turned against him since the debate and GS interview. Prof. Lichtman should do a fresh assessment with the keys, since they now seem to point to Trump winning...
Your assessment is wrong...
@@vijaynadkarni oh he will, and i doubt any key has turned towards Trump, we'll see.
This guy is the most prolific writer of Ready Player One fan fiction in America right now.
this is the most stupid explaination I have ever seen. Short term economy is a success? This is a big slap to the many americans suffering cause of this unforeseen inflation.
Inflation is from covid. Trump will not be able to do anything about it. Biden admin told everyone to prepare.
Thankfully most people aren't buying what the lying dems are selling this time.
Funny that the Americans suffering economically voted against a red wave in 2022. Maybe they don't care or the economy isn't as bad for them as you think it is
There is a 'rest of the world' where inflation is equally high or higher in many places.
@@spacebrainerit doesn't matter matter it's not a success to voters right now in 2024
unemployment means nothing when being employed means barely surviving.
Word! True statement. Facts.
I have a job, I only make $13 an hour. You used to be able to have a roof over your head and have just enough money for bills n a little spending money on that. Today. That same pay rate is enough to meet my basic survival needs out on the streets because I don't take enough home after taxes and inflation is killing me just paying for the essential necessities to get by day to day.
There is always someone will struggle.
The question is not absolute improovement, but comparative. For example with inflation in 2022.
MA GA
Also they only ever count those on unemployment. If you no longer get unemployment even if you dont have a job your not counted as unemployed.
@@amymarie1298What you really want is Communism.
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Wow that's nice She makes you that much!! please is there a way to reach her services, I work 3 jobs and trying to pay off my debts for a while now!! Please help me.
The economy for the average American is awful.
This is not about Wall Street
Maybe the democratic party should have a democratic process for choosing their candidate instead of forcing their guy in.
Maybe they did...
@@heavyhauler426 Not where I live.
Naw they stole it from Bernie in 2016 and here we are@heavyhauler426
Joementia's only purpose is to keep Bernie Sanders out of the white house, despite being the MOST POPULAR POLITICIAN IN THE COUNTRY!!! The donors would obviously prefer a Trump presidency than Americans getting Medicare-4-All from Bernie or even worse, someone who would stop the endless wars. The CIA and the Military industrial complex would never let that happen, Bernie would be MLK'd by a "lone wolf" long before he reached the podium.
The system works
derp
Maybe a 14th key should be “to not be a senile old fool”
😂
Im suprise ppl arent replying with "and 15th to not be a felon"
Biden is obviously neither senile nor a fool. Biden and Trump are both old. Biden is only 3 years older than Trump.
😂😂😂
@@elcalabozodelandroide2Because the hypothetical 14th key applies to both candidates already.
Suggesting a sitting president to step down to boost the VP's chances based on a metric is so farcical, ignores the whole underlying notion of stability that the metrics seem to stem from, and just seems like ivory tower thinking?
The Economy? I always follow the Cheese & Chocolate Idices (C&CI). If 8 oz of cheese costs over$3.85 (actual real cheese = $7.70) & a.shrinking bar of Hersey's chocolate costs $2.59 we have inflation, Baby!
And the president doesn't control the prices of any of those things.
Those are real world indicators.
I used to use the amount of trucks on the roads when I traveled, it was very accurate, more so than this clown’s model.
This is college in a nutshell. Something your professor cooked up and will quiz you on that is utter nonsense and you'll never hear again.
Your comment is such a good metaphor. Apt analysis.
he got elections right more than anyone and elections happen every 4 years but okay
Except he has a track record of predicting elections that is much better than random chance, bozo. Maybe if you went to college, they could teach you to reason at a toddler level.
Joe Biden will win the next Presidency and it's a guarantee. Watch and know
Except that he's been right every time. So pay attention, you might learn something.
is being dead part of your 13 keys?
Or severely demented.
Being comatose should be one of the keys.
@@sticklerforchangemaybe even 2 keys.
Nonsense smh!
they probably paid him off to try to convince Biden's supporters to vote for the emperor who is wearing no clothes.
His "13 keys" system may have helped him predict 9 of the last 10 elections, but if he keeps up his delusional thinking... he's going to make it 9 out of 11.
🏢😂🏢
He actually was 10 out of 10 but, like many, he believes a Republican Supreme Court stole the win from Al Gore.
*But he's merely a widely respected historian, not a certified "youtube expert".
**the only one he missed was stolen from the real winner in 2000, Lichtman believes
Well, if he’s always correct, how is that delusional?
I guess this is why media seems to be insisting there's no recession
This guy casually talking like it’s dungeons and dragons
That’s how intelligent people discuss things.
"Well I gave it my best shot and lost so fvck democracy, and I won't live long enough to see how bad it gets."
Maybe Democrats should just vote for RFK Jr if Biden decides to not seek re-election.
@@Brap-pl2meNope
Yeah, it is stupid. He made his 'keys' as a model to predict reality. But now he is advising Democrats to game his model, as if reality will then bend to fit the model. It is really strange for a scientist to even suggest this. This isn't a video game. There isn't an actual real life algorithm that checks these keys. You Lichtman made up these keys. They only exist in your hear. It may be a good model, but cheating to game the model doesn't work.
I'm sorry to ask, but are there any people left in America under the age of 80 who can be interviewed on television?
😂😂😂 or become a president
Yes, but they're all corrupt and traitors.
i can't wait until they only let the educated vote. what will you guys do without representation?
yes age is a factor although joe is unwell, brain surgery, lung clots, poor physical shape, anyorysms, dementia, pooping pants, , he is sick and his disease is progressing! I know many people over 80 that shine, are sharp Joe is excluded, don't judge every older person by this mans short comings, he had many of them as a senator
@@alko_xo what about under the age of 60. What is Americas obsession with these old farts
Now this professor saying that the economy is good the American people would disagree with this dude
In 2024: "I am gonna win in 2020!" Bidden sleeps through yet another speech.
Lichtman’s model is a victim of its own success. Many keys monitor side effects of stable governance (incumbency, no primary challenge etc) rather than stable governance itself. The party suppressing potential primary challengers only delayed the exposure of Biden’s weak position rather than strengthening it. Being an incumbent will only help if the incumbent is seen to lead etc. making decisions based on the variables of a predictive model is a bad idea.
Pretty sure he's been successful while you haven't. I'll come back here when biden or harris is president 😂
Mr. Lichtman's 13 keys do not include any criteria related to the mental health, cognitive abilities, or psychological fitness of the president. It focuses on objective factors: incumbency, economic performance, social unrest, scandal, and foreign/military successes or failures.
Voter behavior is influenced significantly by subjective perceptions, emotions, and personal beliefs. How voters feel about a candidate's mental capacity can be as influential as objective economic or political conditions. This undermines the model's 'gladiator thumbs up/down' rating because it really needs a zero-sum game approach where negative cognitive perceptions detract from the objective factors.
@@AwkwardTruths because mental health is irrelevant to the facts on the ground around policy and it isnt even remotely clear if biden has mental problems to the degree that anyone cares enough to vote for trump. I'm voting biden dead or Alive because I vote for hid cabinet not just him
@@AwkwardTruthsMaybe you should come forward with an even more accurate model than his then? Until then, talk is cheap. His model has still been the best in this business so far.
And Lichtman is a victim of believing his own press clippings
It doesnt matter if they are calling it a recession, its how does the average american "feel" about the economy, and its pretty clear that inflation has eroded any growth they want to flaunt. Only a small percentage of people felt that growth, credit card debt is at an all time high and the government's highest expense is now interest on the debt
the financial system that was created through the federal reserve act in 1913 is the cause of all the strife in the western world at present
Very knowledgeable man. However times are a changing… most of those presidents didn’t have the internet or social media. That has to be a key.
Nor did they have Trump and MAGA, which upends all conventions.
He is incorrect about the unemployment.
13 keys? Sounds a lot like the "19 bellweather counties" method that worked so well from 1980 to 2016 but failed miserably in 2020.
Because 2020 was so clean.
And it’s bellwether.
Fairest and most secure EVER… 81 million 🥴
Yes. A kind of magical thinking belief system. Notice how he's pretending it's objective by claiming there is some objective True/False. Yet his own definition is just Scandal? Charisma? as if those are objective. AFAIK FDR wasn't known to be universally charismatic. But he had good policy ideas: save capitalism by keeping the masses from revolting by buying them off with socialism lite.
2020 was as unusual... or nearly as 2024 is turning out to be. And if it wasn't for covid , I almost 100 percent guarantee Trump would have been re elected
@@muzzcovw7674 I guarantee it 100%. If it weren’t for covid the democrats would have had to follow election laws and wouldn’t have been able to cheat as they did. And as their states made them revert to the old election laws….
We are in completely uncharted, unprecedented times. Some stupid checklist should not be determining whether Biden stays in or drops out… That’s about as scientific as a Buzzfeed quiz.
Neither should a comment on RUclips 😂
EXACTLY! As if Biden standing down now and handing the presidendy to Kamala weeks prior to the convention, would somehow signal stability?! The "incumbency key" is clearly not designed to represent that unprecedented and politically disastrous scenario.
I’d like to agree but he guessed right last time and he had some valid points even though I didn’t wanna hear them
Let's not act like children.
Bro it’s just an opinion he’s not anyone with power lol
I always thought the perfect democrat candidate was the happy face emoji. A smiling image with nothing behind it. Kamala is the closest thing to that. This is all too comical.
Needs to add a key for dementia
along w/ another for adderall dependency.
My issue is that the 13 key system was designed decades ago. The way people consume information now is so vastly different, that many of the facets are completely turned on their head.
Bingo. Seems like this was pertinent in the 80’s
At last, a negative comment that doesn't simply say that the keys are dumb. But in what way does the consumption of information change the keys? For example, are you saying that the charisma key no longer functions because we are so siloed in our media consumption that even an FDR wouldn't have any appeal across the political divide?
ikr - this guy talking without an ounce of humility about how a reductive formula tells him the future sounds like a typical sleepwalking expert hack at this point - he also sounds like a Dem lol
@@rumination2399 he sounds like a dem how exactly? I would also have a lot of confidence in something that has correctly forecasted every election since the ‘80s, save for the one election that came down to one state and was shady af anyway.
@@genepoole1771 my comment was more related to the fact that validity and understanding of most of the issues has been skewed by our current mess of disinformation/misinformation. People are also so beholden to their political identities that they aren't open to information when it contradicts their beliefs.
Isn’t it a scandal if some people think he might have dementia? Asking genuinely. This might affect that key?
Well they have made trump take multiple cognitive tests. And after those tests he said he "aced" them. You don't "ace" a cognitive test. So trump already has that against him.
Yes, and I think the view of the long term economy ( among the bottom 80% of us who pay rent) is not good. I would say he's 4 keys down, not 2.
@@digleman1 ohh please do lecture the class on that incredible insight.
Read the transcript of Biden’s debate vs Trump.
Trump’s father is the one that suffered from dementia and Trump’s arguments or talking points make zero sense.
Exactly. The hole in Lichtman's reasoning is that he is looking at the debate as a self-contained event, rather than something that could affect how one of his other "keys" turns out.
A crowd of one cheering him on is enough to keep him in the race, at least in his mind.
Well if there's anyone I'd ask about Joe Biden, it's a historian
He's not even interpreting his own keys correctly.
Exactly 💯
According to you?
Because he is a fraud
This is Lichtman's Biden moment interpreting his own key system. Not ticking social unrest is ridiculous - the fabric of US society is tearing in two right at this moment, there's also Afghanistan and Ukraine for military and how is the vice president not incumbent, and where was the contest for Biden, it was the lack of contest that got everyone into this mess in the first place.
Human flaw - bias
Anyone who seriously claims that the economy isn't a disaster is either in the 1% or insane. The cost of everything has doubled, and wages are flat.
Hello how are you doing!!!😊
Contrary to your fatalistic assessment, the economy isn’t a disaster. It isn’t best economy (due to inflation as a result of a bungled COVID response) but things are looking much better than this time 4-years ago when we were wondering if we’re getting strapped to a ventilator or not!
@@OG-nq8jm Comparing it to COVID doesn't mean it's good, anything looks good compared to 2020.
@@OG-nq8jm where are you from !
Inflation has been cumulative 20%. Wage growth is outpacing inflation. Stock market at an all time high. Job growth at an all time high. You aren’t trying.
Don’t stand a chance unless they cheat
If Joe doesn't dropping out, the crooks won't rig the polls to take revenge with the Biden's crime family 🤣
If you are not in the financial market space right now, you are making a huge mistake. I understand that it could be due to ignorance, but if you want to make your money work for you... prevent inflation
Thanks for continuing updates I'd rather trade the crypto market as it's more profitable. I make a good amount of money per week even though I barely trade myself.
A lot of people still make massive profit from the crypto market, all you really need is a relevant information and some ‹professional advice. ‹it's totally inappropriate for investors to hang on while suffering from dip during significant
You trade also?, I
No I don't trade on my own anymore, I always required help and assistance
From my personal financial advisor
..
This guy it’s so wacky he went on with Chris Cuomo and tried to convince us that Biden debate performance was only a one off and that he’s never performed like that before.
@@darthlestrange Where can I find his last debate performance like that?
Chris Cuomo wasn’t talking about debates he was telling him that that’s who’s Biden is in general a poor communicator and it’s suffering from some kind of mental decline and he kept trying to say that’s not true that Biden’s totally fine. No one believes that not even democrats.
He's a lot smarter than you are....
@@spacetoast7783I think this guy means that Biden have display his cognitive decline/age so many times. From shaking hand with thin air, to getting lost on stage to claiming to talk to dead. He lies a lot too. Who can forget the corn pops story but the worse is when he say his uncle was shot down and eaten by cannibals. 😅😅😅
@@KleWdSidealso a big liar
MSM still full of 💩😂
Since their beggening trump expose them,now they are hopeless,
Corporate owned media needs to talk about Trump's lies (from the debate) as much as they talk about Biden's performance. (How about fact checking Trump's lies?)
my singing monsters
@@tamsinlewis5161politicians lying is normal, politicians having dementia is not. Sorry, if this bothers you. Biden also lies, Bush committed a genocide based on a lie.
@@Kosovar_Chicken I will vote for Biden no matter what happens...currenty, this country is run by more than One person. If the perverted, convicted criminal, Trump, is elected. Then our country will be run by one man, one dictator. Yep, I'll vote for Biden.
Scandle key: Biden wasn't being charged for the same crime he's charging his opponent with due to being "a well meaning old man with memory problems" 😂😂😂😂
What an embarrassment and a shame to have Biden as a leader.
We're not in a recession, it's just that a week's groceries cost double what they did in 2019 and there's been no real increase in wages to match that
You need to address your Governor about that. Prices in my state are NOT doubled. They've increased. But they are far from doubled. It sounds like big time corruption in your state if that is true.
... and do you expect Trump to solve that problem? Wages not keeping up with inflation has been going on for decades. Neoliberal and conservative economic policies are to blame.
By the way, the inflation rate has consistently dropped under Biden and real wages have increased. Inflation in the USA is better than all other G7 nations. If not for price gouging and corporate greed, the average American would be much better off.
@@thenewapelles6448 Trump MANHANDLED the Fed that actually controls prices. So yeah, Trump would fix inflation by making the Fed his b----
@@thenewapelles6448 "do you expect Trump to solve that problem?" Well, yes. A major source of inflation is high energy prices, because that affects virtually everything, even fertilizer.
And when it comes to price gouging corporations, who do most of them support?
@@SpringIsBACK and why are energy prices so high? Putting the blame on Biden doesn't make any sense at all. There are a number of factors that influence energy costs. The pandemic (as well as OPEC shenanigans) had a huge impact on rising energy costs.
As for who corporations support, it's pretty split. Some support Trump because he promises massive corporate tax cuts and pro-business policies, while others support Biden because they believe Trump is economically illiterate (he is) and would damage the health of the market.
He doesn't consider the fact that we've never had a presidential candidate that has an obvious-to-everyone mental decline. The media can try to spin it any way they want, you can't dispute what we see with our own eyes.
@@RichD2024 The media is the one who spins the idea that Biden has mental problems for ratings 😂😂. Trump literally even said this himself it’s all about ratings for the media. People think over the leftist media is twisting things for Biden when they’re the ones pushing the idea that he has dementia because There honestly border by in like Biden is not a fun president like Trump who you can write an article and get clicks on every week multiple times a week. I have literally seen Fox News crop a video of Biden talking to someone to make it look like he’s talking to nobody. Also I don’t know if we all just have collective amnesia but the media was doing the same thing to trump when he ran the first time and Trump still was elected. Do you say this is the first time in history that a presidential candidate has shown that they might have mental decline is just not true at all. This is why people really need to study history more because like we are constantly just being lied to because for some reason the collective public can only remember like three years in the past tops.
Reagan. FDR. Questioned on mental/physical health. Still won.
@@pax6833bc they could atleast talk without looking like they havemental decline but biden cant
@@pax6833 Reagan could still put together a coherent sentence and FDR's disability had nothing to do with his mind. The Biden situation is unique and you know it.
And the scandal attached to its cover-up.
just a reminder that youtube removed dislike count for him in 2020
Yeah, I would disagree with the keys. We are in a recession, long term economy is failing, and I think that Biden is implicated in these scandals.
What a strange system that ignores a candidate's obvious mental health problems.
Yeah, both presumed candidates have their own sort of mental health issues.
@@SO-SOgood
Who are you to determine that a person has mental health problems? Biden gave good answers- much better than Trump, but he was sick. All Trump did was LIE, which is what he usually does.
Trump’s mental health issues were ignored in 2016
@@omelborpon3159only one was fit to stand trial tho
Reagan also won. "Mental health" is a nebulous concept and most Americans aren't qualified to comment on it.
This won't age well. He left out the incumbent is senile key.
And the wannabe dictator with a lot of criminal suits stacking up on him with allocations of misconduct toward women. Biden with a competent staff doesn't seem so bad to me.
True. Only very radical Liberals will vote for a Senile candidate. They hate Trump that much.
And the key that the challenger is also senile e.g. electric boat battery vs angry shark MIT monologue.
@@genepoole1771 Trump is not senile. You're judging from a couple seconds taken from 90+ min speeches
@@predatoryzzx Also, let's not forget the times he's confused roles and events, such as saying that he will defeat Obama or Hilary, the frequent non sequiturs where his train of thought has derailed and he's started mumbling briefly and then changed the subject to something unrelated. If you're not seeing the footage then you're getting your news from Fox or similar who are editing it out. Google it.
Should be a 14th key..."You are in your right mind according to the average voter." Boom. Done. Bye.
TDS in action. Pathetic
Inflation has always been the nail in the coffin for many U.S Presidents.
no. a recession has.
The US has improved more than any other country after Covid.
Maybe with high inflation. We don't have high inflation... we have price gouging (record profit margins).
@@phiksit no no. We have real inflation.
Inflation is caused by printing money by the GOVT. Not price gouging by companies.
Only the govt creates inflation. Period. Get the facts straight prior to speaking on it.
'it's the economy, stupid...'
same way hitler came to power after WW1 poverty
The polls have predicted 9 of 10 as well 😂
Exactly his only impressive prediction was 2016, he’s also still crying about being wrong in 2000
@@allprolemontonz8448Even 2016 you could argue the polls were more accurate because Hillary won the popular vote.
@@allprolemontonz8448 He wasn’t wrong in 2000, though. Every one knows the election was stolen from the democrats.
@@TheJoeschmoe777 There is no such thing as the popular vote. Our president is elected by the electoral college, the electors from each of the states. "Popular vote" is just a media distraction that makes some people feel better when their candidate loses. Until the last few elections nobody ever talked about "popular vote" because it wasn't a thing. It's irrelevant to electing POTUS and the down ballot races.
@@allprolemontonz8448 It's so funny to me, these predictions are straight up politician astrology nonsense haha
The employed single or with families can barely survive since 2020 and the uncertainty of WW3 is in Cuba at the moment,let that sink in.
The historian isn't putting enough weight on the facts that distinguish Biden's situation from the historical examples. Never before has cognitive decline been a critical factor in a presidential election. The historical examples, therefore, are not the reliable guideposts that they otherwise would be.
If this doesn't count as a scandal, than nothing does.
@@dariusonly1384 Everyone I don't like is a scandal
There is nothing shameful in getting old. Aging out is not a crime, it is not a sin. It is the course of nature. We'll all go though it if we are lucky enough. I am not backing up the idea that president BIDEN should stay in the race, I am just saying that cannot be considered a scandal. If you call that a sandal, that would greatly decrease the base essence of the word per se. A scandal is something that's supposed to be shamefully outrageous in society when it comes into broad light.
Didn't everyone already know that everyone will get old some day and that the president is over 80 years old???
That's hardly surprising...
You think *this* is a "scandal"? That's cute. The Lewinsky Affair or Iran-Contra were *real* scandals. Don't criticize something you haven't read, he wrote a whole book explaining what he meant by each point
If Jan 6 was not an insurrection…
@dariusonly1384 34 felonies, stolen documents and much more do."
*Historian Has The Hubris To Explain Something That Has Never Before Happened In History*
Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson pick up a book
Professor Lichtman did predict all ten past elections correctly.
Well I can explain that biden is history.
@alexanderaz8 SAY WHAT? We’ve had 58 presidential elections. So yes it has happened before. His 13 keys to win are based on those previous elections
.
@pingwang7478 WELL he’s predicting Biden will win, so I guess he’ll lose this one
.
I am stunned to think that anybody except a political operative could vote for Joe Biden.
Well, when the alternative is trump and Project 2025, then anything is better.
Why would anybody vote for Trump?
The guy insults people regularly for fun.
He also insults your intelligence when he tells you what he's going to do and continuously ignores it later.
You can bring up all kinds of intellectual data regarding the economy to argue the economy is doing well, but that's not how regular voters feel when they go to the grocery store and gas station and pay twice what they paid 4 years ago, and so many struggle to pay for their basic needs. Conduct a poll among regular Americans, not well-dressed thinkers like you, and ask them if they consider the economy to be strong. Those people vote too.
Experts can be so stupid. He’s missing the big picture. The inability to think and talk isn’t on his 13 list.
Nor is the ability to court illegal immigrants.
@@ConciousConstruct the way The media was trying to paint Trump in the same way when he then won the election in 2016. So I really don’t think saying someone has dementia necessarily is the dagger in the coffin that y’all think it is
Oh yes!
@@PlsWaLuigiDomMe I don't remember that about 2016. It wasn't like this. They certainly didn't say Trump had dementia then.
Mindless comment. The keys predicted 9/10 last outcomes. Plenty of robust thinking went into them.
Good, its time for the democrats to truly fight for democracy and let the voters decide. We've seen 4 years of trump and 4 of biden. The polls look the way they do for a reason.
We're not a Democracy!
The Democrats don't care about democracy (the Republicans do just bit more). It's a nebulous term used to gaslight us.
August 2020, not Jan 6 2021….
The Great Deception we’re now suffering consequences from is the first compromised nomination of J. Biden.
Every time I type 45’s name I get sen-sirred.
No. You’re wrong.
I knew democrats were going to dump Biden when they wanted the debate before the democrat convention. It will be Big Mike Obama aka Michelle or Gretchen Whitmer with the Pennsylvania governor as VP. Trump needs to gear up for that and pick Tulsi Gabbard not a man as VP.
I just watched Lichtman on CNN and he is absolutely not an unbiased source.
In addition to correctly predicting that an egregious current candidate would not win, the keys have formerly been tested under "normal" conditions (youngish, healthy, compos mentis candidates with rational "operating systems"). Despite Lichtman's enormous confidence in himself, this bilateral fiasco is far from normal.
He gets this argument, that the circumstances this time are different, every election.
Yes, fiasco is the 14th key. Except no one every subjected fiasco to rigorous statistical modeling analysis.
@@antoniopizarro7670 "Fitness for office" is the 14th key --- covered prophetically by the 25th Amendment. "Fiasco" is simply a descriptor of the current dilemma of two who are unfit in different abnormal ways.
Economy is not a check mark for this administration...trust me. Most American families are struggling to afford groceries and insurance. There's no way that's a strong point for the Biden White House.
I"d vote against Joe Biden 20 times.. but alas I'm not a Democrat...just once...
They will still struggle under Trump.
Compared to Trump's economy, which basically ended in a big lockdown with massive job loss, Biden comes out the winner.
I need Trump 2024
Most americans? me and everyone I know are doing just fine. In fact, our incomes and investments are the highest we have ever had
Both long term and short term economies suck. That is two places where this video wasted my time.
go ahead and keep biden, the list shows 7 keys. and this Alan Litchman guy is 9 out of 10 times correct right?
Immigration policy?!!
Who cares!?
Are you aware of Biden’s recent executive order?
@@rockhero2274huh? It’s the second biggest issue to people.
The Orange Maniac squashed it. Vote Blue
@@neverbackdown1918 And there would've been a bill that passed had the Republicans voted in favor of it. Everything they wanted and fought for was in the bill. But because Trump said don't vote for it, they gave in and it never passed. 🙄
Here i was thinking i was listening to an unbiased analysis only to realize it's just one of the Democrat apologists
Lol He's been correct 90% of the time in the last 10 elections, and the only one he lost was when the Supreme Court intervened and gave an election to Bush. Not to mention, he ran it back 100 years and it was STILL 90% accurate. Which means, he also predicted Trump would win in 2016.
This must be why so many conservatives completely denounce science, objectivity, truth, facts, etc... He uses an OBJECTIVE model. And he is the most accurate at predicting elections. People in the sciences (myself included) understand how to separate our personal biases and objective experimentation, theorizing, etc...
RUclips WSJ runs pretty hard to the left unfortunately
Yup
Agreed
WSJ is a mouth piece for the Democrats
In his interview from two month ago this guy never mentioned that the scandal can’t be indirectly related…his keys are so subjective it’s useless
When he’s right again in 2024 what will you say?
@@lebruh2278 Interesting, I didn't think he would change his mind and go with Trump again.
That other senior citizen with his imaginary keys should drink his milk & go nap 😊
This professor's keys are a bunch of malarkey. He forgot the enfeebled octogenarian key
They’re both basically octogenarians so idk if that’s really the issue. Biden just *seems* older than Trump
100%
Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson both had that and won
People were saying how deluded he was to predict trump for the White House in 2016 and yet he got it right and he's been right for the past 10 elections up to now. To give you probabilistic numbers on his chances for him to be right every single time for the past 10 elections, it is a 1 in 1024 chance. Or in other terms a 0.0009766% chance which is very low. If you actually go in more in depth in his system, he's a historian who has based his system on all the other elections since George Washington and combined this history with a Russian earthquake physicist who studies patterns to predict earthquakes. They've came up with this model based on pattern recognition of all the other elections and I rather trust this guy's track record and history then your politically partisan opinion.
@@jacobnapkins1155 They didn't have dementia
So the current Resident isn't soaked in scandal? Seriously? Just because the media ignored them all? Really?
Maybe because nobody cares about your crazy conspiracy theories.
And Trump has way more scandals.
Short-Term Economy, Long-Term Economy, Scandal = False?
Allan Lichtman is too old himself.
There’s no way this presidential historian wears his hair like that if trump hadn’t shown it could be done. That has given him the confidence to try it.
I’d rather he explains why he thinks that hairstyle is ok
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
must be a wig, right? looks odd
@@tomtezuma Elaborate comb over + dye.
**"I'M GOING TO BEAT DONALD TRUMP AGAIN IN 2020"- JOE BIDEN 2024**
I'm not going to re-watch it, but I hope the heck he didn't say that. [face palm]
@@alabamaflip2053 he did and yes it's hard to watch.
He did.
😂😂
@@mariana3393What about Trump saying he defeated Obama? What about Trump saying we are going to fight world war 2? What about Trump not knowing where he was in Iowa? What about Trump saying Nicky Haley was Nancy Pelosi? What about Trump incessantly lying?
Hello, I want to start investing but I don't know where to begin. Any advice or contacts for help?
Look this professor is forgetting about one thing policies policies policies open borders the economy
Bruh , economy is not booming. I cannot buy groceries with my pay. Even the 99cents near me shut down their business. It was 50 years old company.
He doesn’t just mean inflation when talking about a booming economy.
Just because they’re is inflation does not mean it’s a bad economy. Wages are up. But these grocery store chains are price gouging. it is corporate inflation at this point
Then you should talk to Trump about his 1% or tax cut and how the trickle down theory is a joke because that's why you're paying more, because corporations can get away with it.
When people go from being able to afford things and now they can’t real wages are in no way up. That is what inflation is.
Businesses close down everyday, it's normal. Plus those stores are trash
I call BS on the economic key. If you do nit have assets like stocks, house, etc then you feel this Economy sucks
It's like republicans don't like capitalism anymore 🤣
Its not about personal feelings, the economy is based on facts and specific indicators not individual experiences.
@@2Bluzinno it’s not
@@2Bluzin The basket of good has always been changed to make inflation disappear, whenever it was needed. It is a joke. You only need to go to Mc Donald's and fuel up your car to know that life in any practical sense has become a lot more expensive. People do not need a university clown with a party affiliation to explain inflaition away with some arbitrary change to the selection of relevant goods. If you want to believe it, be my guest...
Democrats are biased and won't admit that tho, they also won't admit they keep revising the job growth to lower numbers quietly.
Wow. This guy couldn’t be more out of touch.
OK so did you get more than his 9 out of 10 most recent Presidential elections correct? What makes you think you are so smart? He is far more in touch than you could ever be.
Because people used to be able to buy milk for their kids and gasoline for their cars to get to work and this fool thinks Biden or Harris can run on their record!
A nation is more than a piece of land, more than its borders, more even than its people and its culture. A nation like America is defined by what it stands for: the ideals it upholds and represents to its people and the world.
That nation's character, like an individual's, is tested not when times are good but when the enemy is at the gates. When we stare into the abyss and decide who we are and what we stand for.
We either have democracy, or we don’t. We either have a Bill of Rights, or we don’t. We either stand for truth, or we stand for the lies we tell, most harmfully to ourselves.
I am Travis Briar Vaughan. From this day forth, sink or swim, live or die, survive or perish, I stand with my country. I stand with Bobby Kennedy because I love my country, not my party, nor my wealth, nor even my life if it means to live without freedom.
I love my countrymen, regardless of political affiliation, race, sex, or religion. Each of us-though we may not agree-represents a truth that must be told and heard. I know that we can come together and face the challenges before us in peace, with integrity, love, and respect.
I have been to the crossroads in my life, the abyss we now face. I did not always make the right decision, but I learned from my mistakes and received grace. I wish to extend that grace to you all now.
Vote for who you feel in your heart is best. Advocate strongly for your beliefs, but do so with integrity. Do not bend the rules, cheat, or lie.
Have no fear of the darkness of the abyss. It is our teacher. The reflection you see in the abyss is yours. If you don’t like it, change it. The abyss cannot destroy you. Its purpose is to show you how you will destroy yourself.
But to those of you who refuse to proceed with integrity, who would do violence to Kennedy, to unjustly keep him off the ballot, unjustly challenge his petitions, unjustly lie about his character, and deny him Secret Service protection, I offer you only this final appeal: Go no further.
There is nothing you can do to me or my countrymen anymore. We will tolerate no further insults. This is the line we will hold. We retreat no more.
You may have the guns, but we have the numbers.
And if you doubt the gravity of your peril, ask yourself this question: We are willing to die on this hill, are you? Because if today is the day of reckoning, then so be it. We stand with our country. What do you stand for? Maybe you should look into the abyss and see your reflection first.
The idea that there's no scandal is hilarious. Ignore reality at your own peril.
This time this guy will be embarrassed. 😂
I'm thinking that covering up the man's incompetence fits the bill for "Scandal"
biden is more competent than trump. biden's still going to win
The BIG lie !
@@rossjbolla but where is the actual proof of this 🧐 for someone who is incompetent he has risen the American GPD higher than it has been in years, increased jobs, decreased crime, etc. *oh and this is based on actual data 😋 do you know what that is* ?
@@PlsWaLuigiDomMe Pretty much just talking about his lack of competence to talk in complete sentences and communicate a coherent thought. I think it's pretty clear that's been covered up for years at this point
@@PlsWaLuigiDomMe We all got to see proof over the last 3.5 years and a big dose on debate night. He is not up to the challenge. He is tanking in every measurable way, his own party is revolting. His staff is leaking his "working hours" (10-4pm) and afternoon naps. He refuses to take a cognitive test. He does hardly any unscripted live press events. He often looks lost and confused, his wife has to help him take one step down. What more proof do you need?
Idk how much "contest" is needed, but Biden has lost some delegates to Uncommitted. The short-term economy is good on graphs and macro numbers, but regular people all consider it bad. Trump's charisma appeals to about half of the country, not a narrow group. Third Party will have a bigger showing than usual. There have been no military successes. Leaving Afghanistan was a failure, and supporting Israel is unpopular with a lot of voters who would typically vote Democrat.
I think Trump is going to win.
Never miss an opportunity to down play the trump side, that way they are deemed safe to the msm and can be used to promote the misinformation doctrine
This guy doesn't even live in the real world.
Where is cognitive function in the 13 keys list? That shows the list is dumb af
If he added that, both Biden and Trump would get a bad mark. Trump has Dementia. Do a Google search. There is a lot written about it. Then, search RUclips to see videos of Trump showing signs of.Dementia. What Trump has is a more serious diagnosis than what Biden has(old age cognitive changes).
Having a country where we dont even know who is running it is the biggest scandal
It's obvious that Obama is running the show.
Exactly. My bet is on the "intelligence agencies".
Please. Having a criminal running for president is even a bigger scandal. Biden or whoever is running the country, if that was the case, is doing great! He has record numbers.
@@marvinbrando722 For sure. Bad people are running the State Department.
The president doesn't run the show the only job of the president is to be an actor for the general public to see. Much smarter people are running the country in the background.
I like Litchman personally. I m not even Democrat.
Two
Keys just dropped. The scandal key and the contest key. Hiding his condition this long is a scandal. Remember that the reaction was shock like a scandal. Democrats wanting to replace him now makes it a contested candidacy.
That not what a scandal is lol. He did this interview today and said its not.
Bingo... not to mention, no one believes the economy is doing good --- economists changed how they define a recession just to help him. And to say he has charisma key over Trump because Trump only appeals to a small audience is garbage. They're tied in popular vote. This who video is garbage.
Please! he had a cold during the debate.
@@Shaheen767he looked bad in the interview. Constantly paused, as if he was looking at a teleprompter, which I wouldn’t put past ABC. Said he didn’t know if he watched the debate afterwards. Said “hohoho” at the 4th of July event. Said he was the first black female vice president to serve with the first black president. Said today in Wisconsin that he would beat Trump again in 2020.
No, a scandal has to include a moral problem not a health problem.