These micro-analytics give me a popsicle headache. The eye test tells me all I need about Jarren Duran. His improvement over the last two years has been amazing. A lot of fun to watch, fast becoming must-see TV
Well, well. I don’t think Duran will be taken lightly anymore after that amazing performance at the All Star Game where he managed to one up Otani by breaking a 3-3 tie with a two run blast to put the AL up 5 to 3 over the NL which turned out to be the game winner in the end. And Duran completely outshone Aaron Judge who if you bought into the media hype in the run up to the game was assumed that he would single handedly win the game and assumed would be the MVP. Ooops! Seems Duran didn’t get that message and did what he has been doing, exceeding expectations and being named the MVP of the All Star Game and I totally stoked he got the recognition he deserves.
Him not getting into the All Star Game is a TRAVESTY. He’s one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball (including throwing out the game-winning run at home plate a couple days ago), he has played in every single game, he’s hitting .280, with 10 home runs, 20-something stolen bases, elite baserunning in general… How on earth do you pick Anthony Santander over Jarren Duran?!
All Star voting is inherently bullcrap, by design. The results are meaningless because they can be spammed and measure size of the market (population) or the software skills of the hackers. What they probably ought to do is give out paper ballots at the ballpark. That's it.
@@JosephDalton-xc1iw League, players, managers all get a piece of the vote. There are also phantom injuries and I believe the managers choose the replacements for "injured" starters?
It’s definitely his elite base running and being able to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples at an alarming rate. As of today he’s leading the league in both double and triples. If you take a look at a traditionally extremely successful contact hitter like Ichiro, you’ll see that, while he hit a pretty decent amount of doubles in his career (362), his season high for doubles/triples is 34 doubles in his rookie year and 12 triples in 2005. Duran is currently sitting at 30 doubles and 12 triples through 100 games. Does Duran have this unparalleled ability to split the outfielders with his outfield hits? Maybe. But most of Duran’s hits in this vid (idk if they’re all from this year) show the outfielder cutting it off and Duran getting a double anyway. All the plays, while decisive, are still relatively close. I feel like too many fast players are afraid to try to leg out a double/triple on a play that’s traditionally a single/double. Duran isn’t afraid to do this, and does successfully, a lot. We are not used to seeing this but math is objective and reports the numbers as is. Which is why I think he’s so underrated as well.
Duran's place on this chart is even more impressive when considering Soto and Judge are established, top 1% superstars and Kwan and Tucker have played 25-30 fewer games.
Having the most of a certain stat isn't indicative of a good hitter? If you have the most hits, RBIs, or HRs in the major leagues I'm pretty you're an elite hitter
First off, you're pretty. Yes. Secondly, generally speaking, having the most of multiple batting stats means you're a good hitter yes. It doesn't necessarily mean you're better than the other guys on the league leaderboard though. For example, a sell-out slugger leading the league in HR while hitting .200 is not an elite hitter and most good pitchers will not have trouble working around the power and getting him out in critical situations. Similarly, leading the league in RBIs is really a measure of how deep the owner's pockets are not how good the hitter is compared to his peers. The exact same hitter will have wildly different results depending which roster he's batting in (and where in the batting order the manager plays him). The same logic also applies to leading the league in Hits, to the extent a deep lineup is creating extra ABs for a good hitter, but hypothetically a better hitter on a bad team just doesn't get as many chances to hit. Overall, this year's Red Sox are pretty mediocre so I don't think their roster and payroll are skewing anybody's league-leader stats. But let's not confuse J.D. for being an Ichiro level elite batting average hitter. He has holes in his swing and when he's not disciplined he lifts too many fly balls to the warning track. He could have twice as many triples (already!) if he stopped trying to hit HRs, and committed to being a line drive hitter with more of a Wade Boggs or Ichiro type approach. Mind you he's so strong there are going to be 15-25 HRs a year when he clicks it over 500+ PAs, but I would actually prefer a .320 hitter with ~80 XBHs to a .280 hitter with ~30 HRs. He could be either one of those depending on his approach at the plate. Special player for sure. He could be significantly faster if he wasn't so jacked upper body. Lastly, on defense. His range is very good but he's not yet a confident OF on balls over his head. See for example the hit over his head to break-up the no hitter recently. That was catchable. He took a terrible squiggly route changing direction twice. I'm not saying he's a bad OF I'm just saying he's got a lot of room for growth and development on defense. I look forward to seeing him take things to the next level. Overall, one of my favorite "home grown" Red Sox players over the last 20+ years and I'm so happy for him and the Sox that he is putting it all together after struggling a bit over the last few years to fulfill his potential. Congratulations on making your first AS team. First of many to come!
Nothing but respect for Duran, he’s certainly a great player who should’ve been in the all star game but this kinda just proves WAR isnt a perfect tell all stat There’s way too much of an emphasis on defense and baserunning when it’s significantly less valuable than offense… Defense is such a minor part of the game that has no correlation with winning (FIP, homeruns, average does) but it gives such a massive boost to your WAR (Kiermaier is having a generationally awful season offensively but his defense keeps him as an 0.0WAR player despite it… Varsho is having a good year by WAR standards but he’s garbage with the bat as well I get having some boost for defense but for a position player, at least 90% of his value comes from his bat
I somewhat agree, like there is no way that Nico Hoerner was a better player than JRam, Cody Bellinger or Alex Bregman last year, but according to WAR he was
@@BostonBettor_ if Duran has an elite bat, what does Judge, Ohtani, Yordan and Soto have? I feel like we’re really stretching the definition of elite with this one
@@Redsoxgaming he has a very good bat but his WAR is inflated heavily by his defense and baserunning, 2 minor aspects of the game… He’s an all star caliber player with MVP caliber WAR; that doesn’t add up in the least bit
there's some truth that certain stats (HR, RBIs) can be deceiving but ultimately don't devalue them like the morons who tried to that w/ batting avg... you're doing that here to make a case for Duran & u sound like u want to be his agent
These micro-analytics give me a popsicle headache. The eye test tells me all I need about Jarren Duran. His improvement over the last two years has been amazing. A lot of fun to watch, fast becoming must-see TV
Eye test... come on dude get w the program
@bosoxbandit I know, actually watching a player to see how good he is? What a ridiculous thing to say🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
@@bosoxbandit I defer to you because you're the bosoxbandit.
Well, well. I don’t think Duran will be taken lightly anymore after that amazing performance at the All Star Game where he managed to one up Otani by breaking a 3-3 tie with a two run blast to put the AL up 5 to 3 over the NL which turned out to be the game winner in the end. And Duran completely outshone Aaron Judge who if you bought into the media hype in the run up to the game was assumed that he would single handedly win the game and assumed would be the MVP. Ooops! Seems Duran didn’t get that message and did what he has been doing, exceeding expectations and being named the MVP of the All Star Game and I totally stoked he got the recognition he deserves.
Him not getting into the All Star Game is a TRAVESTY. He’s one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball (including throwing out the game-winning run at home plate a couple days ago), he has played in every single game, he’s hitting .280, with 10 home runs, 20-something stolen bases, elite baserunning in general…
How on earth do you pick Anthony Santander over Jarren Duran?!
He will be an all star, just not a starter. The reserves are picked by the league, so he will definitely get in that way.
I thought it was up to the ASG managers?
All Star voting is inherently bullcrap, by design. The results are meaningless because they can be spammed and measure size of the market (population) or the software skills of the hackers.
What they probably ought to do is give out paper ballots at the ballpark. That's it.
@@JosephDalton-xc1iw League, players, managers all get a piece of the vote. There are also phantom injuries and I believe the managers choose the replacements for "injured" starters?
All Star MVP. LFG.
duran is an all star...
Until he turned all slur.
It’s definitely his elite base running and being able to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples at an alarming rate. As of today he’s leading the league in both double and triples.
If you take a look at a traditionally extremely successful contact hitter like Ichiro, you’ll see that, while he hit a pretty decent amount of doubles in his career (362), his season high for doubles/triples is 34 doubles in his rookie year and 12 triples in 2005. Duran is currently sitting at 30 doubles and 12 triples through 100 games.
Does Duran have this unparalleled ability to split the outfielders with his outfield hits? Maybe. But most of Duran’s hits in this vid (idk if they’re all from this year) show the outfielder cutting it off and Duran getting a double anyway. All the plays, while decisive, are still relatively close.
I feel like too many fast players are afraid to try to leg out a double/triple on a play that’s traditionally a single/double. Duran isn’t afraid to do this, and does successfully, a lot. We are not used to seeing this but math is objective and reports the numbers as is. Which is why I think he’s so underrated as well.
Thanks for the video
I love to learn and I just learned a lot
Duran's place on this chart is even more impressive when considering Soto and Judge are established, top 1% superstars and Kwan and Tucker have played 25-30 fewer games.
That's pretty generous to judge lol
Duran needs a tennis racket!
Having the most of a certain stat isn't indicative of a good hitter? If you have the most hits, RBIs, or HRs in the major leagues I'm pretty you're an elite hitter
First off, you're pretty. Yes.
Secondly, generally speaking, having the most of multiple batting stats means you're a good hitter yes. It doesn't necessarily mean you're better than the other guys on the league leaderboard though. For example, a sell-out slugger leading the league in HR while hitting .200 is not an elite hitter and most good pitchers will not have trouble working around the power and getting him out in critical situations. Similarly, leading the league in RBIs is really a measure of how deep the owner's pockets are not how good the hitter is compared to his peers. The exact same hitter will have wildly different results depending which roster he's batting in (and where in the batting order the manager plays him). The same logic also applies to leading the league in Hits, to the extent a deep lineup is creating extra ABs for a good hitter, but hypothetically a better hitter on a bad team just doesn't get as many chances to hit.
Overall, this year's Red Sox are pretty mediocre so I don't think their roster and payroll are skewing anybody's league-leader stats. But let's not confuse J.D. for being an Ichiro level elite batting average hitter. He has holes in his swing and when he's not disciplined he lifts too many fly balls to the warning track. He could have twice as many triples (already!) if he stopped trying to hit HRs, and committed to being a line drive hitter with more of a Wade Boggs or Ichiro type approach. Mind you he's so strong there are going to be 15-25 HRs a year when he clicks it over 500+ PAs, but I would actually prefer a .320 hitter with ~80 XBHs to a .280 hitter with ~30 HRs. He could be either one of those depending on his approach at the plate.
Special player for sure. He could be significantly faster if he wasn't so jacked upper body.
Lastly, on defense. His range is very good but he's not yet a confident OF on balls over his head. See for example the hit over his head to break-up the no hitter recently. That was catchable. He took a terrible squiggly route changing direction twice. I'm not saying he's a bad OF I'm just saying he's got a lot of room for growth and development on defense. I look forward to seeing him take things to the next level.
Overall, one of my favorite "home grown" Red Sox players over the last 20+ years and I'm so happy for him and the Sox that he is putting it all together after struggling a bit over the last few years to fulfill his potential.
Congratulations on making your first AS team. First of many to come!
All Star MVP.
Josh naylor
shohei most underrated most blaseball fans still don't get what he does
currently hes only hitting
Baseball stats r are way too deep
Jose Ramirez.
What about Steven kwan
That’s not what the videos about dude
Nothing but respect for Duran, he’s certainly a great player who should’ve been in the all star game but this kinda just proves WAR isnt a perfect tell all stat
There’s way too much of an emphasis on defense and baserunning when it’s significantly less valuable than offense… Defense is such a minor part of the game that has no correlation with winning (FIP, homeruns, average does) but it gives such a massive boost to your WAR (Kiermaier is having a generationally awful season offensively but his defense keeps him as an 0.0WAR player despite it… Varsho is having a good year by WAR standards but he’s garbage with the bat as well
I get having some boost for defense but for a position player, at least 90% of his value comes from his bat
I somewhat agree, like there is no way that Nico Hoerner was a better player than JRam, Cody Bellinger or Alex Bregman last year, but according to WAR he was
If you watch him you’ll know he has a good bat but sadly mlb only cares about homers now
He has an elite bat. That mixed with the speed he has creates his own category of value
@@BostonBettor_ if Duran has an elite bat, what does Judge, Ohtani, Yordan and Soto have? I feel like we’re really stretching the definition of elite with this one
@@Redsoxgaming he has a very good bat but his WAR is inflated heavily by his defense and baserunning, 2 minor aspects of the game… He’s an all star caliber player with MVP caliber WAR; that doesn’t add up in the least bit
there's some truth that certain stats (HR, RBIs) can be deceiving but ultimately don't devalue them like the morons who tried to that w/ batting avg... you're doing that here to make a case for Duran & u sound like u want to be his agent