For me as a German im sure that the support for Ukraine won't stop because of the energie situation. Most Germans stand for the Ukraine and against Putin. No one of the big political Partys would risk to be blamed for supporting an autocratic leader.
As a german, i can promise you you that Putin has a bad hand with us. Our gas storage facilities are still 92% full. There must now be sub-zero temperatures until March before we get problems. And there are dozens of LNG tanker ships before our cost waiting for gas prices to rise. So in worst case, we lose a bit more money to that then we would normally do. And we can cope with that
I'm so glad to hear of that ...blessings to you all ..may you create new ways to generate energy and use those methods I've seen ( the oval wind generator ,the solar cube ,the recycling of plastics to oil ) you have always been clever mechanically
@@TheEVEInspiration I'm talking about ~20% higher gas prices for 1-2 months. And the masses have the financial reserves. Poorer people will, and already receive subsidies
@@Gromic2k 20% No way man, more like 250%. Living in a small apartment with a heat pump and double glass, I have to pay around 750 euro a month. You clearly have absolutely no clue how insane the costs are. And that will translate in massive price increases everywhere. How many people do have a spare 500 euro after taxes, every month? There will be people that have to spend several thousand extra!
Expecting Germany to cave into the demands of a lunatic despot just because it's a bit cold is seriously underestimating how stubbornly pragmatic the everyday German is.
Older comment from me I'm even from Germany and we're doing just fine for the most part, hasn't changed much, yes partly inflation (depending on the area). The bigger problem there is also simply that the U.S. interest rate policy & the ECB can only act slowly (so that Southern European countries can continue to pay their debts, only slow interest rate increases) & disrupted supply chains in Asia, which bring inflation high. The order books of most DAX/MDAX companies are still full for 1-2 years, which gives them a cushion for the time being. I have but also still lucky my electricity provider, increases only next year the cost, because he buys energy on 2 years in advance. The government has paid everyone 300 € as relief, a few relief on taxes, more commuter allowance, etc.. And will take over from now 1 year 80% of the gas costs. And some other reliefs e.g. your employer may grant you employers an inflation compensation bonus up to an amount of 3,000 euros in the period from October 26, 2022 to December 31, 2024 free of tax and social security contributions. Yes for it debts are taken up, but the Bond market has only blinked, the Bonds for Germany have not large on the 200 billion for all possible energy cost fight packages. Continues to have the best credit rating AAA (Usa have AA+).
And as long as the Greens and parts of the SPD, can still rely more on climate ideology than on reason, in energy planning, it seems not so bad yet. Nuclear power plants will still go offline to 90% in April. Which is of course rather a pity, but well, saves us at least the problems of France with its power plants e.g. in the summer where there were many shutdowns because of too warm rivers.
I wouldn't say this it's "conventional" to think that winter favors Russia, it's just what the Zombies say. Any extreme condition favors whoever prepared for it.
winter doesnt favour russia,in the case of a invasion deep into russian territory the only thing that lets them push the invaders back is the mountains between europe and asia,aka the urals,but in this case russia has practically nothing going for it,only numbers of troops,not much else,since they dont have the best logistics. edit:oh and if the invader is ill eqquiped for winter that definitely helps russia but a well eqquiped invader can only be stopped by the urals
Canada is sending 500,000 sets of military winter gear to Ukraine's forces. Russian popsicles can only dream about getting that kind of world-class gear.
Canada doesn't have 500,000 sets of anything, and Ukraine doesn't have 500,000 troops to equip with any set of gear. So your claim is nonsense. Also, it's kind of ignorant and childish to assume that the largest country in the world as far north as Russia is somehow doesn't have winter gear. The people that live in winter more than anyone don't have winter gear? Right. I guess Russians just forgot to adapt to the winter for the last 3,000 years. Oh wait that's right, you're just an idiot.
There are two factors that I probably would have emphasized more: 1. The enormity of the supplies needing to be delivered both for the troops already on the front lines and for the new recruits, and 2. How they deliver them. Mainly because the Russian forces have been chronically under-supplied, and now Russia is looking to double or triple the amount of supplies needed just by adding new bodies to the fight even before you think about winter. Then there is the fact the Ukraine has consistently targeted Russian supply and ammunition depots as well as bridges and railroads used to deliver them. With Russia's entire supply lines exposed to HIMARS strikes, the challenge of getting enough supplies to their front line troops looks like a herculean task and one they have not demonstrated the competency to accomplish in ideal weather let alone winter.
Yes this is the 2 most critical factors in my view too and one more the bad training of the Russians troops unable to adapt adequately specialy in winter time.
@@Piersmoron with what? They're too busy wasting all their precision munitions on Ukraine's power plants and civilian infrastructure to hit any military targets. And by many estimates, they are running out of precision munitions.
It has become a stereotype about how Russia always is prepared for winter like it was the only country in the world that ever has winter and everyone else just sits and baths in the sun. These people who lack military knowledge love to insert nationalism in these discussions and then when they look at Russia's performance in WW2, they faced the same problems just like the Germans. Especially when spring arrived, there were just as many Russian tanks, as there were German tanks, that got stuck in the mud. Russia's military is not immune to the winter, nor are they supernaturally build to live in cold weather. Period.
Do you take in account the human factor. The hate, desire, love and any other emotion that drives humans to do crazy things. In my country's history, George Washington was about to lose 2/3's of his ragetag army their enlistment was ending. It was in the middle of winter very bad one. Washington attack Trenton and Princeton with his army wearing rags on their feet and thin summer coats. Washington's government under supplied his army through out it's service. The promise of food, a warm place to sleep and payback was the goal. Each battle only lasted less than 40 minutes. Washington lost more men to cold than to the enemy. You sir, did not count on the need of a human to survive. Oh, with both victories more than half of the regular army relisted and several militia join the army. Think for a minute without nationalism.......how you would fill in the ranks of squad, platoon, company or anything higher. You have to get people to kill, suffer and do without for a good reason. No nationalism THERE IS NO ARMY or nation. You either a child or have no clue of human nature.
One thing I heard that was interesting was the change in the day/night cycle. Ukraine is able to provide more night vision gear to its soldiers than Russia can and with winter comes longer nights. Ukraine will be able to pull off more effective nighttime combat against Russia as a result.
I've wondered for a while why no NVG has been sent in larger quantities to Ukraine, the ability to 'own the night' would further compound a debilitating and becoming terminal morale in the Russian ranks. Instead of intercepted phone calls bemoaning officer desertions we might be seeing those same officers becoming pows as the rear gets overrun along with the front lines. I know some of the news must be skewed but even so the Ukrainian soldier is an awesome sight to behold in terms of learning brand new skills, obvs chefs and mechanics wouldn't need night vision but everyone up to the territorial units compare most favourably to NATO forces that have NVG and the Ukrainians would no doubt put them to exemplary use...
The thing about needing rotation in winter that you dont mention is, that if you dont do it, if a soldier gets sick and has to stay out in the cold, rather than being able to rest in a warm place, he might very well die of sickness.
Very true. I had “flu/COVID” in my notes for this video but ultimately cut it. I probably should have squeezed it in as just an add-on point for issues with staying warm.
When i was in Germany this summer they were doing the DB €9 Tickets to encourage people to ride trains and not drive and holy hell were the trains busy. Never seen them that packed. So clearly that fuel saving method was being taken advantage of.
Putin WANTS a Stalingrad. He thinks it's glorious. Of course, he will sip champagne while enjoying his glorious reenactment. No one he knows will be sent to die.
Small addition to the situation in Germany. Yes, people worry about their energy bills. And yes, the media and the people put pressure on the government to help people. But an indicator to assess the overall mood in the country might be to look at the media and how they report on the war. Even with high inflation and energy costs no outlet is actually calling for negotiations with Russia. Even the most extreme tabloids, left and right, make it absolutely clear that Russia is the cause of the problems. Calling for peace on Russia's terms in this kind of political climate within the country would make any politician or media outlet an instant pariah. Each published article that adds to this climate is underlining the idea that the crisis will end once Russia is defeated. People think things will improve when Putin is gone and Russia leaves Ukraine. So if Putin banks on Germans pressuring their government to force some kind of peace deal on his terms, he's facing a steep uphill battle. Things would have to get really dire for that. But recent polls actually show growing optimism in the population.
I'm really glad to hear this feedback ...it's time for russia to stop meddling in other countries for its own advantage and desire to relive the past....I believe we all need to take responsibility to learn ways to care and protect ourselves . .at a personal and country level ,using both heart ❤ and head . Ukraine has shown exemplary skill and commitment ..and their reward is a unified country of enormous potential ...
@@ananamu2248 What parallel universe are you from? Ukraine is trough and through corrupt and was this long before the war, there is zero cohesion, which is why there is conflict to begin with. On both sides masses fled the country at first opportunity. The ones fighting now are either the Russian speaking people fighting for self-control and those forced by the Kiev regime. Very few fight because they want to!
The temperatures might be the same,the circumstances are definitely not. Ukrainian soldiers are supported by their army, families and friends when in the fields or when they rotate, the orcs are in a situation where the population will try to deny them anything and they can't expect any support from their commanders, the best they can hope for is not to get shot when they desert.The orcs army is one giant clusterfuck.
I am so sad for the Russian families that would have to bury their men because Putin just sees them as cannon fodder. I just hope they all have sunflower seeds in their pockets so something beautiful can come from their death.
Yes ,I am far away from the fighting and I know their co.es a time where one is required to place your life on the line fir a greater good ,for freedom ....it's time to say no! To Russian s constant aggression ...I think we are making a stand to halting mad dictators and authorities over riding the power of the people ..in Iran, China and many other countries .. I'm sad too that it comes at a cost of so many lives and much grieving
It's not an analysis, it's a fact that 99% of people who complain about being cold don't understand: no matter how cold the environment is, there's an amount of clothing that will keep you warm.
@William Spaniel, Hello from Germany o7, recent polls have shown that, despite the current conditions, 60% of questioned Germans favour increased weapon shipments to UA over negotiations. I think most people here are by now aware that there is no way back to an old status quo as much as we wish for it. And the quickest end in Germany's favour would be by giving UA the Systems they ask for (e.g. tanks, training). I hope that Germany will not cave into the pressure and wait it out.
I think the point of no return for germany has already passed. Before NordStream was sabotaged there _might_ have been a question about this, but now that caving to Russia wouldn't even get us back what we "lost" by supporting Ukraine, this has become a very easy question. And the stoic pragmatism of our current government that has drawn a lot of critizism in other areas gets nothing but praise on this issue. In fact, recently the slogan "No money for Putin's war!" has become somewhat popular. Where people would say stuff like "don't leave the lights on all day, do you know what this costs?" or "why is the heater on and the window open? are we heating the entire town?" - they have now come to collectively use this phrase: "It's a bit cold in here, isn't it?" - "No money for Putin's war!" - "Fair enough. Let me get my sweater then."
Winter coming to North America and Europe may also encourage support for Ukraine among civilian populations, since it's easy to empathize with people whom you know are out there working in the cold! This may, in turn, lead to more financial support. The fact that inflation in most industrialized nations is also finally stabilizing could lend itself to the same effect.
@@thedeepseaking3659 The HIMARs are destroying Russian infrastructure? Do you just make up your reality as you go, whatever is the most comfortable for you to believe in the most convenient. You just believe that? That's something a child does but I guess that makes sense because you have a weeb profile picture which makes me think that you're younger than 20 which confirms that you don't actually know anything.
I am a Finn living in northern Finland. Now is the coldest day this winter so far. In most of the country about -20 celsius and under. Electricity price is very high, about 10 times of normal. But there is no shortage of it or heating as well. So we suffer a bit economically but it is just money. Finns are 100% supporting Ukraina. And we don´t give up. If we in Europe give up for a dictator, his next demads will be even more costly for us - in the end deadly.
as a Swiss🇨🇭, dependet on Gas central heating. If we are cold this winter. Then we will not forget, nor forgive Russia for this next winter. We will build other ways to stay warm. But once trust is boken, then its very difficoult for Russia to rebuild a partnership for trade or financial exchange here.
As a Swiss you refuse to do dealing with Russia but you guys had no problem storing all that nazi gold stolen from jews. Damn that must mean you guys really hate Putin respect.
You know someone fucked up seriously if the Swiss start to take a stance that isn't "I'm Neutral, and if you want to question that, have fun traversing ALL the mountains."
One thing I feel often gets neglected in these types of discussions is the amount of food a soldier needs out in the winter. When I was doing my conscription time in the Finnish military, I spent 5 days out in the woods in -25°C. For the Finnish army that's not even that long, nor as cold as it gets, but my calorie intake just about doubled from what I normally ate in the army. I ate more than twice the amount I ate in civilian life, just because my body was burning so much energy just to stay warm. In winter, it'a basically mandatory that a soldier also gets food that's warm 2-3 times a day, so logistics and field kitchens are working overtime. In Finland, it gets cold, but I've never been as cold as I was in the military.
That's especially relevant when they are ALREADY failing in actually properly feeding all their soldiers, let alone actually giving them sufficient gear, and worse still, I doubt they have enough winter gear.
@@maka6134 The winter will likely be pretty cold regardless, cold enough that soldiers will need proper winter gear and sufficient food so that they don't just die without seeing a fight. Russia's already failing in supplying even the most basic things to their soldiers most times, winter is going to be an absolute disaster for them.
@@camrobertson1886 I'm pretty sure most would rather surrender than keep fighting at that point, and yes, while I know you're probably joking, it'd probably still take a ton of duplicate gear to get enough warmth from layering to get through the winter. Also, disease would be rampant.
@@camrobertson1886 That would absolutely destroy morale, and again, disease would be rampant, especially if they don't have the know-how and equipment to properly prepare them in the first place. Also, layering standard non-winter gear will only do so much in winter conditions, it won't cover up everything that should be, not without a lot of makeshift reuse.
100,000 KIA in Ukraine 30,000 missing in action. Those numbers are confirmed by Germany. Even though the Ukrainian simps have increased the number of dead on their military counters in order to catch up with the new public number of Ukrainian KIA they're still only at 90,000. Which is a completely made up number unlike the German intelligence leak. So really if there are trenches full of bodies anywhere in Ukraine most likely those bodies are Ukrainians.
When intelligence officials are saying 8 Ukrainians die for every Russian soldier killed that logic falls apart. When Russia deploys its reservists the the war will be lost for Ukraine unless NATO gets involved, they’re already losing key areas critical to their supply chain
I really enjoyed your summary , I live in Canada and very used to the cold. Not that I like it, but it does take planning, preparation and yes a little more effect to stay DRY and warm ( I can not say enough about staying dry, keeping hands and feet dry/ warm. Wind and PARICULLARY drafts into shelters can also be a major stressor). I as well know there has to be more focus on equipment maintenance, prep, lubrication and so on. Ukraine, I think has the advantage here, Winter is hard on equipment. I as well feel Ukraine has a strong advantage in intel, whether its drone surveillance, satellite, partisan, or basically they seem to know a lot. Ukraine will make the gains worth the pain of winter in their advantage with their soldiers. They have proven this over and over again with success. This can be done in warmer areas and when the time comes to act, it is planned well. Ukraine will keep their soldiers kitted well. This is important. As for the little drones and their bomblets, hopefully these preform well in the cooler air temps, these are a real moral buster on the Russians on the fronts lines, keep them bouncing around. The frontline is massive and would take literally thousands of little drones ..... well just a little hoping on my part LOL the videos of these sure show results.
Having in the British Army some years ago been on Winter exercises in Germany I can vouch how tough it can be even though I was well equipped clothing wise etc. I do not think those Russian soldiers are going to enjoy this Winter at all. Regards, Jim in NI UK
@@QemeH Yeah. We just finished realigning all the file cabinets and filling them with nicely ordered, triple-stamped democratic paperwork. Took us a couple decades. We're certainly not going to switch that over again, any time soon!
A decisive year for Ukraine. We pray for all those effected. May the good lord protect them. Thanks fo the continous updates. We wish you and your team all the very best for the year 2023. Take care my friend. May God bless you.
Newsflash for Russia: Its not even that cold in England, and Germany is typically warmer than England. I'm stood outside my house having a smoke and I just put a coat on. Kinda of magical how putting one extra layer of clothing on has completely eliminated the need for central heating. I find it utterly hilarious how I'm contributing to undermining Russia's war effort, simply by owning a coat. My energy bill is actually lower this year than it was last year 😂😂😂
Then if you want to really turn the screws on ivan the moronic, put on thermals under your clothes and become virtually invulnerable to even prolonged periods of freezing temperatures.
Ah, newsflash........check your area's history......" you know nothing Jon Snow " climate runs in cycle's late 1930's England was buried in snow. You will find the army was used to dig out areas of importance to the economy. There are newsreels of the event.
@qatresmokoza7691 You dissolve Russia, and then... Until you have a realistic, better option, the devil we know is definitely better than the devil you don't. Currently, Russian nukes are in Russia. If Russia dissolves, there will be a scramble ti grab as many nukes as possible to point at your neighbours as deterrence. I agree with dissolving Russia, but only if a better alternative exists besides Belarus/Ukraine/Finland/China splitting Russia up
Me and many other Germans I know, lowered our Gas and Power consumption, Germany will NEVER let Putin win this war. Both the people and the government have no intention of abandoning Ukraine. we are incredibly stubborn people and have always been at our strongest when we had to stick together. We will certainly not shy away from energy prices and inflation now! SLAVA UKRAINI💛💙
when it's cold; the person with thermal drone will spot the crap out of his enemy trying to keep warm by fire and hot vehicle exhaust moving around. It will be interesting how this will play out
and the misery will be heightened...and more bodies will dot the countryside, bodies left where they fell because the ground is too hard to dig, soldiers will dig through the pockets of the dead for anything useful. This passage is older that you, sir......because war has been stalking the world forever. Be careful you could end up being like one of the frozen soldiers of this coming winter. Your story is still being written, beware
And now, one former Ukrainian Gamer turned _Drone Pilot Extraordinaire_ will train the next pilot, resulting in an _Exponential Increase in the Ability to Fight Back_ . . . 🎮🕹🎮 But meanwhile, the Russians will have to find another hundred soldiers and untold hundreds of tons of bombs, an _Exponential Decay in the Ability to Wage War._ 🚀🚀🚀 - j q t -
Before watching the video, my instinctive answer to the title's "question" was "logistics". The farther from home, the harder logistics get (especially given how "competent" Russia has been so far), and winter makes it exponentially worse. Well, I was kind of right but it's more complicated, uh. Thanks for the detailed explanation!
You should take some time to realize that you have a logistic system supporting you right now. Everything this man has said is effecting you right now. Just look at the prices on everything you buy. When you have the idea how it effects you take a moment. As long as everyone is taken care of on equal playing field everything is fine. When there are shortages people change, you seen it and experienced it, but now everyone is carrying a gun. It get's worst fast, guys in back areas are getting what they need and the guys on the front are not getting it. You forgetting the human factor. Winter will make it hellish. Being hunger and cold and wet once in awhile is bearable. Winter will kill you quicker than a bomb or bullet. The video was not a detailed explanation. I watched it and I flash of all the firsthand accounts about living outside in winter from soldiers and civilians who survived it.
It has been well over a century since European armies called off activity and went into "winter quarters". Winter certainly didnt stop the Chinese in Korea, nor did it stop the US Marines accomplishing the best-known withdrawal under fire. Summarized by General Puller when he said "Well, they have us completely surrounded. They Can't Get Away Now!"
One thing you missed: winter will also change targeting priorities. Less focus on ammo depots, more focus on whats needed to keep the oppositional troops alive. Food, shelter, gear.
@@JRDZ1993 Exactly. If they can target the fuel resupply they'll get a lot of force amplification benefits as well. Everyone standing watch is gonna keep the motors idling just to stay warm. Chances are high that kerosene heaters will be in use, which can use gas in a pinch. So fuel becomes even MORE critical. Cutting off gas will lead directly to more enemy loss churn to old man winter.
The weather and the terrain are always neutral. They favor the side that is better prepared. "General Winter" was Russia's great ally because Hitler and Napoleon were foreigners operating in unfamiliar conditions. Ukraine is fighting for it's own home so they can use the weather just as well as the Russians.
And it bears reminding, during the invasions of both Napoleon and hitler, the Ukrainians were part of the defending force. They have just as much and probably more history repelling invasions into the russian empire/soviet union, owing to their position closer to the border during those and other conflicts(looking at you Sweden).
@dosmundos That description also works for the soviet Union which begged for weapons and fuel all throughout WW2. Go look up how much fuel and equipment was given by American lend lease.
Supposedly training units were cannibalized this summer to provide replacements so I have my doubts if the quality of the 'trained' conscripts will be good enough.
Some very good points about troop behavior around this time of year. There were already widespread reports about Russian forces drinking back in the summer and more recently mobilized forces immediately starting fires at their rallying grounds due to a lack of shelter. Any drone with a thermal camera is going to see them like they've got a neon sign above their heads.
This seems like a fairly comprehensive look at the many factors involved in winter, can't really say much about it beyond that I think you covered most obvious and even quite a few less obvious factors. What actually happens will become more clear through out the winter of course, but I suspect it will probably be along the lines you sketched.
Also nato has better equipment to supply ukraine with so they have the advantage, they are war machines with better weaponry than Russia. When this began my dad said he wouldnt be too concerned Russia probably wont be able to do it. And he was right. Go Ukraine!
NATO has no equipment to supply Ukraine. Russia has 20% of the Worlds artillery, NATO has 5%. Same goes for ammo. The war has only one possible conclusion other than the money laundering going on in Ukraine.
As an infantry officer, we were encouraged to attack during adverse weather conditions because the discipline of defending units degrades as their soldiers prioritize seeking creature comforts. Conversely, since the attacker selects the time and place of engagement, their concerns are more pressing than a warmer spot next to the fire or another nip of vodka.
This, however, is the short term view on adverse weather. In the long term, adverse weather tends to favour the defender (assuming a single attack doesn't route them) as both logistics and rotation is usually easier for the defender.
@João P K until the last occupied Ukrainians are liberated too yes then we are going to liberate moskow from russonazi rebels to restore Kyivan Rus´, ruled by the Kyivan president Zelenskyy
I am very glad that the Ukrainian people especially the soldiers are trying to be the most prosperous proficient soldiers that there is they kind of mimic the US soldiers in time of war they are very resilient they are very smart they are very intelligent thank God for the attitude that you have that you at least can take care of or try to take care of your country no matter what happens in the matter what somebody throws at you you seem like you use it against them God bless you guys most of the people in the United States whether you think it or not they are for you not against you keep up the good work you will persevere you will win
The Ukrainian soldiers can utilize the native American way of building a fire underground you just dig two holes that are interconnecting that way the fire is underground but the heat proceeds up and it will be harder to trace especially if you put camouflage over the top and those NASA thermal blankets that reflect the heat so on the outside it looks cold and the inside it's warm.
i was going to add that will the police have problems getting the returning troops from going once they hear what it truly is like im watching for the street fights again like they had first time round gb
Done winter training and exercises in northern Sweden.. Yes, you just keep going as usual, it just takes twice as long.. You do that and the other one is worse off, you win. Same as with if you got NVGs and the other one don´t, you fight at night..
Excellent video!! Thank you so much for breaking the issue of winter into logical and influential elements. This video is both educational and thought-provoking.
Few other advantages which Ukraine will almost certainly have... 1. Less movement, means it is easier to hit fixed targets. Ukraine probably has an edge on precision weapons. Months of fixed lines means artillery and missile systems really start doing damage. 2. Winter also favors Ukraine in terms of recon and target spotting. Clouds, fog, snow, etc. will hurt Russia more as NATO has more radar and thermal satellites, Ukraine probably has better thermal imagines systems, US has massively better signals intelligence, and Ukraine always has better human intelligence. Russia may find it harder to target Ukrainian artillery and missile systems. This may also mean Ukraine can move it's troops (say for an offensive) without being spotted as easily. 3. Any pause might give Russia more time to get more troops there (debatable how well equipped they would be), but it also gives Ukraine time to switch to US/NATO systems. Adding even a few hundred M1 or Leopard 2 tanks or Gryphen or F16s would be far more of a game changer than say 50,000 more Russian troops. Likewise, it can mean more time for Ukrainians to train -- outside the country in warmer climates -- say Spain, US, etc. 4. Winter means supply issues in terms that you now have reduced capacity to move supplies, more need for basic goods, and thus less capacity for munitions and new equipment. This favors Ukraine as it can rely on high-accuracy munitions. 5. Russia destroyed so many buildings and infrastructure in their advance. As such, they have less intact buildings to shelter in. These also become easy targets with large potential for mass casualties. 6. While it may be more difficult to attack, it is also more difficult to counter attack in winter. If you can overwhelm and area, it is harder for Russia to move troops up and counter attack. 7. Ukraine can still perform a guerilla war during winter. It's harder to maintain solid lines or deal with partisan attacks. Attacks on railroads or roads in the rear lines are easily possible.
Logistics favor Ukraine totally. Russia currently has 3 ways to re supply its forces in Ukraine. Kerch bridge, Coastal road that goes through Mariupol, and rail from Russia. I see a big offensive coming. Part of that will be taking out the Kirch, the rail lines and trucks as they haul supplies on the coast. I Expect that to happen soon as more snow falls, leaving the Russians with what they have on Hand like in Kherson. As a 20 Year Vet I know we used a lot more supplies in winter, warm is a problem and almost double food supplies. Wounded from the Cold and disease, can decimate an Army, the Russians have hygiene problems and it will worsen. The Cold, Russian will have a very big problem with it or was it all Propaganda? I think not, too many Prisoners, and intercepts of comms, taken by Ukraine to collaborate the kit problem, those kit tales. The breakout will be fast overwhelming, a huge artillery barrage, as the breakout begins, catching them by surprise. Overrunning Artillery positions with fast moving mobile infantry attacking artillery positions that are no longer mobile, Fuel problems overall. The attacking force is back filed as it moves forward to secure left and right flanks with an Enemy that is on the run, pure chaos complimented by Ukrainian frequency Jamming effectively eliminating any command and control. Cross somewhere close to Zaporizhzhya and a surprise attack from Kidburn in force. A part of that force will swing Right following the Dnipro, the other going south. Artillery will back all of those of course, Himars, other long range guns in play opening the way for ground forces. Air defense forces added in case of Russian air defense. A feint will be made North of Bakhmut drawing eyes to it, a build up of soldiers,Tanks weapons and Artillery, even supplies being moved for an obvious Offensive, the bait Russians moving troops east already thinking they may take Bakhmut, a trap. Bakhmut is the bait also. Leaving Kherson Oblast pocket weak, as they did in Kherson City itself, as they ran out of supplies. I also Note Ukraine is now producing 120, 122, and 152 shells. Partisans will be a big help during the above operations. I would expect the attacking force to reach the sea of Azov with a mad rush routing the Russians as they move. Follow on forces and partisans mop up. Crimea has become a prisonLogistics favor Ukraine totally. Russia curentlu has 3 ways to re supply its forces in Ukraine. Kerch bridge, Cosatl road thatgoes through Mariuopol, and rail from Russia.
That is exactly what I have been thinking - as a zero year vet. Ukraine carefully building its supply of weapons with new, very deadly arms from the West. Training. Waiting and watching for Old Man Winter to soften up the orcs for the optimal time to strike. Blitzkrieg. "Conventional wisdom" is in January. But then, Ukraine has defied the conventional wisdom. I also wonder if the US is working to develop a special weapon specifically designed to take out the Kerch Bridge.
I did 19 years in the infantry, winter causes a general slow down in movement. A better equipped military, means a tactical advantage to the people able to take advantage of it. A Finnish style war would be used by the Ukrainian forces, but too much movement can lead to troop distribution being seen.
Regarding Germanys energy issues there are reasons why supply won’t be the problem. Price maybe, but not supply: 1. the warm Oktober, which lowered demand for heating gas, because people didn’t turn on their radiators until November. 2. German industry calculates with a lot of buffer and holds it’s own reserves, so they were able to lower demand without hurting operations. 3. Energy usage by the industry went down because of lower production due to lower demand domestically and internationally. 4. German law says that in case of insufficient energy supply private homes are cut off last. Industry will have to reduce consumption first 5. National Reserve is almost full So nobody is going to freeze. Prices will go up. Some companies will go under. By now it’s much more a cost of living crisis than a supply crisis.
Excellent analysis of winter war! Using the Winter War in Finland during 1939-40 vs the Nazi defeat in Stalingrad in 1942-43 shows the advantage to well prepared and motivated defenders vs aggressors. The words: 'Lean Lease', mentioned in this post, is the big difference. Moscow's supply chain is drying up and breaking down, while Ukraine's is flowing. Great weapons systems only work when soldiers are fed, clothed, and motivated by external resources. More soldiers will die of exposure, alcohol, and depression than from bullets during this winter. Battlefront trenches will become the open graves for many abandoned troops.
As a Canadian who lives on the west coast and spends most of the winter commercial fishing I can tell you that 5 to -5 degrees c is not that bad. If you have the layers and a warm enough blanket just about anyone can be fairly comfortable
The bit about Alcohol (not) warming you up is something I learned when my mother enrolled me in classes at the Temperance women when I was but a lad. The lessons didn’t take. . .
German here, I haven't turned on my radiator this winter at all. It's really not that hard to put on a hoody or two and we want to see Russia crumble as much as ever! Slava Ukraini
As a German: no one of my family or direct friends is a) at risk of not heating his/her home or b) would ask for an end to the war if that were to happen.
In addition, processes have been set in action that will further reduce our long-term on gas as a power source, and, by extent, Russia. A lot of people suddenly started investing into solar energy and heat pumps.
I believe that the idea of people "halting" in winter, especially since russia routinely operates in Siberia, and Canada helped train the ukrainian soldiers. I totally agree. Winter Warfare comes down to Morale. Keeping post is difficult and caloric intake of the soldiers has to be high. So warm meals, rotating to warm tents and a method to dry pretty much anything is crucial. Also, make the soldiers build snow forts and have some fun in the snow, making equipment sleds for recce, and providing some light duties while they wait is also very important. The most important is warm calories.
One minor correction to your video. You seemed to imply that only Russia will benefit from this winter "pause" in regards to training. While Russia can use these winter months to increase the readiness of their conscripted and poorly motivated older men, alcoholics, convicts, and semi-literate farmers, giving additional training to a largely un-receptive cadre of recruits can only incrementally improve their ability to fight effectively. Meanwhile Ukraine will also be making use of the winter slowdown to train their new recruits/reservists as well, and the training will be of a significantly higher quality in the area of new tank crews, artillery units, air defense systems, etc. Meanwhile many Russian troops will be taught to dig trenches, latrines, and bunkers.
The lightning attack was predicated on Ukraine's knowledge that Russia had chosen to fortify the south at the expense of the north. It sounds like Ukraine will make gains as long as they maintain good intelligence of Russian movement and have the resources they need when those opportunities come. Ukraine having keeping good intelligence? Highly likely Russia doing something stupid? Highly likely Ukraine having the resources to capitalize? Unknown
![BRASIL vs. URUGUAY [1-1] | RESUMEN | ELIMINATORIAS SUDAMERICANAS | FECHA 12](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/-hWBAuxF1eY/mqdefault.jpg)
For me as a German im sure that the support for Ukraine won't stop because of the energie situation. Most Germans stand for the Ukraine and against Putin. No one of the big political Partys would risk to be blamed for supporting an autocratic leader.
A lot of Germans don't even support their own grubermint by the plot for armed insurrection in a Germany itself 🤭
That's good, I think most of the European people sympathise with Ukraine against the murderous Russians!?!
Though unrelated, what is Germany's reply on Erdogan's recent missile launch threat against Athens?
Although as a German myself I do need to say that I believe Germans are silly.
@@georgedevries3992 called to deescalate and said greece is allowed to station their new marders whereever they want
I think the Ukrainians might be familiar with the winter in Ukraine.
Call it a gut feeling.
they have been fighting the orctards for 8 years they should be used to it by now
they'll be familiar with dark and cold I'm sure lol
😆 🤣
Such wise words. 😉
But seriously, it's not like Jamaicans are fighting Russia in Ukraine. Ukrainains know their own damn climate.
@@ImNotaRussianBot yeah, and it's a mild climate compared to the climate of their adversary.
As a german, i can promise you you that Putin has a bad hand with us. Our gas storage facilities are still 92% full. There must now be sub-zero temperatures until March before we get problems. And there are dozens of LNG tanker ships before our cost waiting for gas prices to rise. So in worst case, we lose a bit more money to that then we would normally do. And we can cope with that
I'm so glad to hear of that ...blessings to you all ..may you create new ways to generate energy and use those methods I've seen ( the oval wind generator ,the solar cube ,the recycling of plastics to oil ) you have always been clever mechanically
Nonsense, masses of people do NOT have the financial reserves to throw away!
@@TheEVEInspiration I'm talking about ~20% higher gas prices for 1-2 months. And the masses have the financial reserves. Poorer people will, and already receive subsidies
@@Gromic2k 20% No way man, more like 250%. Living in a small apartment with a heat pump and double glass, I have to pay around 750 euro a month.
You clearly have absolutely no clue how insane the costs are. And that will translate in massive price increases everywhere. How many people do have a spare 500 euro after taxes, every month?
There will be people that have to spend several thousand extra!
@@TheEVEInspiration ?? The gas price currently is 1 cent higher than it was in january
Expecting Germany to cave into the demands of a lunatic despot just because it's a bit cold is seriously underestimating how stubbornly pragmatic the everyday German is.
“Stubbornly pragmatic” might only apply to Germans of the past. Im not saying that they’ll completely collapse but the possibility is high.
I absolutely agree.
There will be no surrender.
Germans don't give up!
Older comment from me
I'm even from Germany and we're doing just fine for the most part, hasn't changed much, yes partly inflation (depending on the area).
The bigger problem there is also simply that the U.S. interest rate policy & the ECB can only act slowly (so that Southern European countries can continue to pay their debts, only slow interest rate increases) & disrupted supply chains in Asia, which bring inflation high.
The order books of most DAX/MDAX companies are still full for 1-2 years, which gives them a cushion for the time being.
I have but also still lucky my electricity provider, increases only next year the cost, because he buys energy on 2 years in advance.
The government has paid everyone 300 € as relief, a few relief on taxes, more commuter allowance, etc..
And will take over from now 1 year 80% of the gas costs.
And some other reliefs e.g. your employer may grant you employers an inflation compensation bonus up to an amount of 3,000 euros in the period from October 26, 2022 to December 31, 2024 free of tax and social security contributions.
Yes for it debts are taken up, but the Bond market has only blinked, the Bonds for Germany have not large on the 200 billion for all possible energy cost fight packages.
Continues to have the best credit rating AAA (Usa have AA+).
And as long as the Greens and parts of the SPD, can still rely more on climate ideology than on reason, in energy planning, it seems not so bad yet.
Nuclear power plants will still go offline to 90% in April.
Which is of course rather a pity, but well, saves us at least the problems of France with its power plants e.g. in the summer where there were many shutdowns because of too warm rivers.
eh germans have become spineless, just look how they are handling the immigrant crisis.
Greetings from Germany. We will not give up on Ukraine. Nothing more to say.
Yeah but we gave up on Germany.
Nazi dream of conquer Russia is still a dream never come true
because Germany helped start this war, to square an old debt that Russia owes from 1945.
You backing Ukraine or US? I only see Ukrainians dying while US getting rich.
That shows your level of intelligence 🤣🤣🤣
I wouldn't say this it's "conventional" to think that winter favors Russia, it's just what the Zombies say. Any extreme condition favors whoever prepared for it.
winter doesnt favour russia,in the case of a invasion deep into russian territory the only thing that lets them push the invaders back is the mountains between europe and asia,aka the urals,but in this case russia has practically nothing going for it,only numbers of troops,not much else,since they dont have the best logistics.
edit:oh and if the invader is ill eqquiped for winter that definitely helps russia but a well eqquiped invader can only be stopped by the urals
Russians. They are cold and wet and miserable and have almost no personal equipment or food now.
It will kill them in droves.
Great point. I don't think the Russians are prepared for winter. They don't even have socks...
That’s the Finnish way there, spot on.
In Soviet Russia we fight with winter
In Ukraine Winter fights Russia
Canada is sending 500,000 sets of military winter gear to Ukraine's forces.
Russian popsicles can only dream about getting that kind of world-class gear.
🇺🇸✌🏻🇨🇦✌🏻🇺🇦
Canada sent 500,000 sets of -military winter gear- Canadian Power Armor to Ukraine's force.
Corrected it for you lol.
Canada doesn't have 500,000 sets of anything, and Ukraine doesn't have 500,000 troops to equip with any set of gear. So your claim is nonsense. Also, it's kind of ignorant and childish to assume that the largest country in the world as far north as Russia is somehow doesn't have winter gear. The people that live in winter more than anyone don't have winter gear? Right. I guess Russians just forgot to adapt to the winter for the last 3,000 years. Oh wait that's right, you're just an idiot.
@@ThompsonExpress b - b - Based?
Keep in mind, "Winter" might mean "Death Blizzard" in Canada.
There are two factors that I probably would have emphasized more: 1. The enormity of the supplies needing to be delivered both for the troops already on the front lines and for the new recruits, and 2. How they deliver them. Mainly because the Russian forces have been chronically under-supplied, and now Russia is looking to double or triple the amount of supplies needed just by adding new bodies to the fight even before you think about winter. Then there is the fact the Ukraine has consistently targeted Russian supply and ammunition depots as well as bridges and railroads used to deliver them. With Russia's entire supply lines exposed to HIMARS strikes, the challenge of getting enough supplies to their front line troops looks like a herculean task and one they have not demonstrated the competency to accomplish in ideal weather let alone winter.
Yes this is the 2 most critical factors in my view too and one more the bad training of the Russians troops unable to adapt adequately specialy in winter time.
@@jocelynwow you are an absolute dolt if you think that Russians aren't acclimated to extremely cold weather.
And I’m sure Russia hasn’t thought of targeting Ukraine supply lines Ammo stores etc 🙄
@@Piersmoron with what? They're too busy wasting all their precision munitions on Ukraine's power plants and civilian infrastructure to hit any military targets. And by many estimates, they are running out of precision munitions.
@@Jondiceful yeah sure they are buddy sure they are 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Remember people, Being accustom too the cold does not mean that you are invulnerable to it.
It has become a stereotype about how Russia always is prepared for winter like it was the only country in the world that ever has winter and everyone else just sits and baths in the sun. These people who lack military knowledge love to insert nationalism in these discussions and then when they look at Russia's performance in WW2, they faced the same problems just like the Germans. Especially when spring arrived, there were just as many Russian tanks, as there were German tanks, that got stuck in the mud. Russia's military is not immune to the winter, nor are they supernaturally build to live in cold weather. Period.
People need their "myth's" to keep going.
Do you take in account the human factor. The hate, desire, love and any other emotion that drives humans to do crazy things. In my country's history, George Washington was about to lose 2/3's of his ragetag army their enlistment was ending. It was in the middle of winter very bad one. Washington attack Trenton and Princeton with his army wearing rags on their feet and thin summer coats. Washington's government under supplied his army through out it's service. The promise of food, a warm place to sleep and payback was the goal. Each battle only lasted less than 40 minutes. Washington lost more men to cold than to the enemy. You sir, did not count on the need of a human to survive. Oh, with both victories more than half of the regular army relisted and several militia join the army. Think for a minute without nationalism.......how you would fill in the ranks of squad, platoon, company or anything higher. You have to get people to kill, suffer and do without for a good reason. No nationalism THERE IS NO ARMY or nation. You either a child or have no clue of human nature.
@@johnbrockenbrough8564 What the f*ck did you write?
The Russians fought better than Germans in the winter though.
@@Bahamut998 Yeah, because they had the equipment.
One thing I heard that was interesting was the change in the day/night cycle. Ukraine is able to provide more night vision gear to its soldiers than Russia can and with winter comes longer nights. Ukraine will be able to pull off more effective nighttime combat against Russia as a result.
I've wondered for a while why no NVG has been sent in larger quantities to Ukraine, the ability to 'own the night' would further compound a debilitating and becoming terminal morale in the Russian ranks. Instead of intercepted phone calls bemoaning officer desertions we might be seeing those same officers becoming pows as the rear gets overrun along with the front lines. I know some of the news must be skewed but even so the Ukrainian soldier is an awesome sight to behold in terms of learning brand new skills, obvs chefs and mechanics wouldn't need night vision but everyone up to the territorial units compare most favourably to NATO forces that have NVG and the Ukrainians would no doubt put them to exemplary use...
Thank you to all people around the world who standing with Ukraine 🇺🇦 We shall be strong and Ukraine will prevail 💪 Greetings from Kyiv ❤
The thing about needing rotation in winter that you dont mention is, that if you dont do it, if a soldier gets sick and has to stay out in the cold, rather than being able to rest in a warm place, he might very well die of sickness.
Very true. I had “flu/COVID” in my notes for this video but ultimately cut it. I probably should have squeezed it in as just an add-on point for issues with staying warm.
@@Gametheory101 Is this your channel? Check out your videos with dif thumbnail..
ruclips.net/video/iznKX_cJRn4/видео.html
When i was in Germany this summer they were doing the DB €9 Tickets to encourage people to ride trains and not drive and holy hell were the trains busy. Never seen them that packed. So clearly that fuel saving method was being taken advantage of.
This just shows the greed of the average German. The 9 euro ticket was damn cheap and that's it.
@@Arcturus367 As it should be. It shouldn't be cheaper to take a plane from Munich to Hamburg rather than the train.
@@Arcturus367 Me realising I'm German (I'm greedy too)
General Winter has betrayed Muscovy before when it has disrespected him.
Why do people not believe it can happen again?
Putin WANTS a Stalingrad. He thinks it's glorious. Of course, he will sip champagne while enjoying his glorious reenactment. No one he knows will be sent to die.
See World War II
@@DesiGalCrochet WW2 was Nazis invading Ukraine. Now Nazis are invading Ukraine. That actually do not support Russia here.
It only works if the enemy isn't prepared for it the mongols didn't really struggle with it.
Her, Winter is a her.
Small addition to the situation in Germany. Yes, people worry about their energy bills. And yes, the media and the people put pressure on the government to help people. But an indicator to assess the overall mood in the country might be to look at the media and how they report on the war. Even with high inflation and energy costs no outlet is actually calling for negotiations with Russia. Even the most extreme tabloids, left and right, make it absolutely clear that Russia is the cause of the problems. Calling for peace on Russia's terms in this kind of political climate within the country would make any politician or media outlet an instant pariah. Each published article that adds to this climate is underlining the idea that the crisis will end once Russia is defeated. People think things will improve when Putin is gone and Russia leaves Ukraine. So if Putin banks on Germans pressuring their government to force some kind of peace deal on his terms, he's facing a steep uphill battle. Things would have to get really dire for that. But recent polls actually show growing optimism in the population.
Same in Poland. Anyone suggesting caving it to Putin's demands or supporting Russia will be commiting political suicide.
I'm really glad to hear this feedback ...it's time for russia to stop meddling in other countries for its own advantage and desire to relive the past....I believe we all need to take responsibility to learn ways to care and protect ourselves . .at a personal and country level ,using both heart ❤ and head . Ukraine has shown exemplary skill and commitment ..and their reward is a unified country of enormous potential ...
**The media tells what the Leftists fascist rulers tells them to!**
Which entirely nukes your line of reasoning.
@@ananamu2248 What parallel universe are you from?
Ukraine is trough and through corrupt and was this long before the war, there is zero cohesion, which is why there is conflict to begin with.
On both sides masses fled the country at first opportunity.
The ones fighting now are either the Russian speaking people fighting for self-control and those forced by the Kiev regime.
Very few fight because they want to!
@@TheEVEInspiration Could you define what "Leftist fascists" mean?
The weather conditions are the same for both sides. Who is best prepared and able to cope with the winter will be what decides the issue.
not according to these apple knockers; they think the weather has chosen a side
Whelp, the Russian soldiers are screwed, then. Hope they enjoy the footwraps.
The temperatures might be the same,the circumstances are definitely not. Ukrainian soldiers are supported by their army, families and friends when in the fields or when they rotate, the orcs are in a situation where the population will try to deny them anything and they can't expect any support from their commanders, the best they can hope for is not to get shot when they desert.The orcs army is one giant clusterfuck.
I still can't believe that this level of analysis and objective expertise is free and widely available.
Thank you Mr. Spaniel.
I'm just crying for all the lives lost
my 401K is exploding from all the profits made in this war
I am so sad for the Russian families that would have to bury their men because Putin just sees them as cannon fodder. I just hope they all have sunflower seeds in their pockets so something beautiful can come from their death.
Yes ,I am far away from the fighting and I know their co.es a time where one is required to place your life on the line fir a greater good ,for freedom ....it's time to say no! To Russian s constant aggression ...I think we are making a stand to halting mad dictators and authorities over riding the power of the people ..in Iran, China and many other countries .. I'm sad too that it comes at a cost of so many lives and much grieving
Unfortunately many more will die before this war ends.
"Friendship ended with Russia, now Ukraine is my best friend."
Friendship was never with russia, ukraine is my best friend
Between yours and perun's videos, this is a great analysis of the winter situation. Thanks!
Perhaps a more accurate thumbnail would have been "Videos about How Winter Is Coming Are Coming".
"the easiest way to stay warm is to never get cold"
10/10 analysis 😂
This man is too smart for us all.
More vodka spasibo..
Makes sense to me. Cold compounds. It's possible to operate in the cold but taking a breath when you start to feel it is better than pushing through.
It's not an analysis, it's a fact that 99% of people who complain about being cold don't understand: no matter how cold the environment is, there's an amount of clothing that will keep you warm.
Yet it's true, warming up is a lot bigger task than staying warm.
Wow, you said Kyiv instead of Kiev. Thanks for this from Ukraine
People who say Kiev: 🤪🤪🤪
People who say Kyiv: 😎😎😎
Your country is being decimated because of nato and you worry about that?
No wonder Russia is pummeling you.
@@scottsmith9438 I don’t think your looking at the Russo Ukrainian war because Ukraine is heavily pushing Russians back to russia
westerners do not know proper vowels
People who say zelinski is a Nazi: 🤪🤪🤪
People who say Putin is a fascist: 😎😎😎
@William Spaniel, Hello from Germany o7, recent polls have shown that, despite the current conditions, 60% of questioned Germans favour increased weapon shipments to UA over negotiations. I think most people here are by now aware that there is no way back to an old status quo as much as we wish for it. And the quickest end in Germany's favour would be by giving UA the Systems they ask for (e.g. tanks, training). I hope that Germany will not cave into the pressure and wait it out.
I think the point of no return for germany has already passed. Before NordStream was sabotaged there _might_ have been a question about this, but now that caving to Russia wouldn't even get us back what we "lost" by supporting Ukraine, this has become a very easy question. And the stoic pragmatism of our current government that has drawn a lot of critizism in other areas gets nothing but praise on this issue. In fact, recently the slogan "No money for Putin's war!" has become somewhat popular. Where people would say stuff like "don't leave the lights on all day, do you know what this costs?" or "why is the heater on and the window open? are we heating the entire town?" - they have now come to collectively use this phrase:
"It's a bit cold in here, isn't it?" - "No money for Putin's war!" - "Fair enough. Let me get my sweater then."
I absolutely love the non-political, hard, cold facts you provide in these videos. Keep up the good work
War is always political
This is simply one of the best commentaries on the impact of "General Winter" on the war. Very well-written, clear, and concise. Thank you!
Winter coming to North America and Europe may also encourage support for Ukraine among civilian populations, since it's easy to empathize with people whom you know are out there working in the cold! This may, in turn, lead to more financial support. The fact that inflation in most industrialized nations is also finally stabilizing could lend itself to the same effect.
Great analyse breakdown! Victory to brave Ukraine's people and Ukrainians forces ! Thank you.
He didn't analyze anything. He copied the dialog from Perun's video
winter is no longer Russia's friend
Russia pissed off everyone, including the winter. That is some achievement.
Why not? They still have an infrastructure,,
@@scottsmith9438 That's a lie and Himars are constantly making sure of that.
@@thedeepseaking3659 The HIMARs are destroying Russian infrastructure? Do you just make up your reality as you go, whatever is the most comfortable for you to believe in the most convenient. You just believe that?
That's something a child does but I guess that makes sense because you have a weeb profile picture which makes me think that you're younger than 20 which confirms that you don't actually know anything.
That's if you believe that Winter actually was their friend. Germany was losing the war before winter even started
I am a Finn living in northern Finland. Now is the coldest day this winter so far. In most of the country about -20 celsius and under. Electricity price is very high, about 10 times of normal. But there is no shortage of it or heating as well. So we suffer a bit economically but it is just money. Finns are 100% supporting Ukraina. And we don´t give up. If we in Europe give up for a dictator, his next demads will be even more costly for us - in the end deadly.
as a Swiss🇨🇭, dependet on Gas central heating. If we are cold this winter. Then we will not forget, nor forgive Russia for this next winter. We will build other ways to stay warm. But once trust is boken, then its very difficoult for Russia to rebuild a partnership for trade or financial exchange here.
As a Swiss you refuse to do dealing with Russia but you guys had no problem storing all that nazi gold stolen from jews. Damn that must mean you guys really hate Putin respect.
You know someone fucked up seriously if the Swiss start to take a stance that isn't "I'm Neutral, and if you want to question that, have fun traversing ALL the mountains."
One thing I feel often gets neglected in these types of discussions is the amount of food a soldier needs out in the winter.
When I was doing my conscription time in the Finnish military, I spent 5 days out in the woods in -25°C. For the Finnish army that's not even that long, nor as cold as it gets, but my calorie intake just about doubled from what I normally ate in the army. I ate more than twice the amount I ate in civilian life, just because my body was burning so much energy just to stay warm.
In winter, it'a basically mandatory that a soldier also gets food that's warm 2-3 times a day, so logistics and field kitchens are working overtime.
In Finland, it gets cold, but I've never been as cold as I was in the military.
That's especially relevant when they are ALREADY failing in actually properly feeding all their soldiers, let alone actually giving them sufficient gear, and worse still, I doubt they have enough winter gear.
@@Darca1n They probably dont but ukrainian winters arent the same as Finnish winters
@@maka6134 The winter will likely be pretty cold regardless, cold enough that soldiers will need proper winter gear and sufficient food so that they don't just die without seeing a fight.
Russia's already failing in supplying even the most basic things to their soldiers most times, winter is going to be an absolute disaster for them.
@@camrobertson1886 I'm pretty sure most would rather surrender than keep fighting at that point, and yes, while I know you're probably joking, it'd probably still take a ton of duplicate gear to get enough warmth from layering to get through the winter.
Also, disease would be rampant.
@@camrobertson1886 That would absolutely destroy morale, and again, disease would be rampant, especially if they don't have the know-how and equipment to properly prepare them in the first place. Also, layering standard non-winter gear will only do so much in winter conditions, it won't cover up everything that should be, not without a lot of makeshift reuse.
Ah yes Ukraine is gonna find it hard walking over all the trenches filled with Russians that unalived because of hypothermia
100,000 KIA in Ukraine 30,000 missing in action. Those numbers are confirmed by Germany. Even though the Ukrainian simps have increased the number of dead on their military counters in order to catch up with the new public number of Ukrainian KIA they're still only at 90,000. Which is a completely made up number unlike the German intelligence leak. So really if there are trenches full of bodies anywhere in Ukraine most likely those bodies are Ukrainians.
Hopefully their frozen carcasses will just fill the trenches high enough to drive over in a tracked vehicle. Thank Ivan for the body bridge lol.
When intelligence officials are saying 8 Ukrainians die for every Russian soldier killed that logic falls apart. When Russia deploys its reservists the the war will be lost for Ukraine unless NATO gets involved, they’re already losing key areas critical to their supply chain
@@erichufnagel3474 Which officials bozo because trust me source doesn't work here Eric
@@TheLazyass111 cant tanks drive over trenches? Isnt that the point the tank was even built?
I really enjoyed your summary , I live in Canada and very used to the cold. Not that I like it, but it does take planning, preparation and yes a little more effect to stay DRY and warm ( I can not say enough about staying dry, keeping hands and feet dry/ warm. Wind and PARICULLARY drafts into shelters can also be a major stressor). I as well know there has to be more focus on equipment maintenance, prep, lubrication and so on. Ukraine, I think has the advantage here, Winter is hard on equipment. I as well feel Ukraine has a strong advantage in intel, whether its drone surveillance, satellite, partisan, or basically they seem to know a lot. Ukraine will make the gains worth the pain of winter in their advantage with their soldiers. They have proven this over and over again with success. This can be done in warmer areas and when the time comes to act, it is planned well. Ukraine will keep their soldiers kitted well. This is important.
As for the little drones and their bomblets, hopefully these preform well in the cooler air temps, these are a real moral buster on the Russians on the fronts lines, keep them bouncing around. The frontline is massive and would take literally thousands of little drones ..... well just a little hoping on my part LOL the videos of these sure show results.
❤ love that
I really appreciate the consistent quality editing in your videos
It’s a slideshow…
There is a difference ukraine has the hometown advantage and neighbors supporting them this not true for russia
I agree Spazzmaticus
Just watched Letterman’s interview with President Zelensky.
He is an inspiration.
Victory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
Having in the British Army some years ago been on Winter exercises in Germany I can vouch how tough it can be even though I was well equipped clothing wise etc. I do not think those Russian soldiers are going to enjoy this Winter at all. Regards, Jim in NI UK
As an American I must say that I’m impressed with our German friends and will never forget them. Bravo.
We're not as ... loudly ... patriotic as some of the Americans, but rest assured that we are adamant and stoic defenders of democracy and freedom.
@@QemeH Yeah. We just finished realigning all the file cabinets and filling them with nicely ordered, triple-stamped democratic paperwork. Took us a couple decades. We're certainly not going to switch that over again, any time soon!
A decisive year for Ukraine. We pray for all those effected. May the good lord protect them.
Thanks fo the continous updates.
We wish you and your team all the very best for the year 2023.
Take care my friend. May God bless you.
Newsflash for Russia: Its not even that cold in England, and Germany is typically warmer than England. I'm stood outside my house having a smoke and I just put a coat on.
Kinda of magical how putting one extra layer of clothing on has completely eliminated the need for central heating.
I find it utterly hilarious how I'm contributing to undermining Russia's war effort, simply by owning a coat. My energy bill is actually lower this year than it was last year 😂😂😂
Then if you want to really turn the screws on ivan the moronic, put on thermals under your clothes and become virtually invulnerable to even prolonged periods of freezing temperatures.
I live in Ukraine and without warming I can live with a thin jacket
Ah, newsflash........check your area's history......" you know nothing Jon Snow " climate runs in cycle's late 1930's England was buried in snow. You will find the army was used to dig out areas of importance to the economy. There are newsreels of the event.
@qatresmokoza7691 You dissolve Russia, and then...
Until you have a realistic, better option, the devil we know is definitely better than the devil you don't.
Currently, Russian nukes are in Russia. If Russia dissolves, there will be a scramble ti grab as many nukes as possible to point at your neighbours as deterrence.
I agree with dissolving Russia, but only if a better alternative exists besides Belarus/Ukraine/Finland/China splitting Russia up
Me and many other Germans I know, lowered our Gas and Power consumption, Germany will NEVER let Putin win this war.
Both the people and the government have no intention of abandoning Ukraine. we are incredibly stubborn people and have always been at our strongest when we had to stick together. We will certainly not shy away from energy prices and inflation now!
SLAVA UKRAINI💛💙
Winamp, that was the .most heartening ,realistic overview of the war that I have seen ...thankyou
when it's cold; the person with thermal drone will spot the crap out of his enemy trying to keep warm by fire and hot vehicle exhaust moving around. It will be interesting how this will play out
and the misery will be heightened...and more bodies will dot the countryside, bodies left where they fell because the ground is too hard to dig, soldiers will dig through the pockets of the dead for anything useful. This passage is older that you, sir......because war has been stalking the world forever. Be careful you could end up being like one of the frozen soldiers of this coming winter. Your story is still being written, beware
And now, one former Ukrainian Gamer turned _Drone Pilot Extraordinaire_ will train the next pilot, resulting in an _Exponential Increase in the Ability to Fight Back_ . . . 🎮🕹🎮
But meanwhile, the Russians will have to find another hundred soldiers and untold hundreds of tons of bombs, an _Exponential Decay in the Ability to Wage War._ 🚀🚀🚀 - j q t -
Thank you for explaining this complicated war from different types of view...... Very well done.
So much value in these videos. Well made with a lot of information ℹ️
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
I’m always pleased with these presentations. He brings a wide base of knowledge together for a thoughtful and tightly articulated discussion
enjoyed your mindful assessment of this conflict and how the winter necessarily shifts the strategy from brute violence to logistics and discipline.
Your coverage is excellent and very well architected. Thanks.
Great analysis..keep up the excellent work!
BTW, final battle of Donetsk Airport and Debalcevo happened in winter 2015. It was cold and snowy.
Before watching the video, my instinctive answer to the title's "question" was "logistics". The farther from home, the harder logistics get (especially given how "competent" Russia has been so far), and winter makes it exponentially worse.
Well, I was kind of right but it's more complicated, uh. Thanks for the detailed explanation!
You should take some time to realize that you have a logistic system supporting you right now. Everything this man has said is effecting you right now. Just look at the prices on everything you buy. When you have the idea how it effects you take a moment. As long as everyone is taken care of on equal playing field everything is fine. When there are shortages people change, you seen it and experienced it, but now everyone is carrying a gun. It get's worst fast, guys in back areas are getting what they need and the guys on the front are not getting it. You forgetting the human factor. Winter will make it hellish. Being hunger and cold and wet once in awhile is bearable. Winter will kill you quicker than a bomb or bullet. The video was not a detailed explanation. I watched it and I flash of all the firsthand accounts about living outside in winter from soldiers and civilians who survived it.
It has been well over a century since European armies called off activity and went into "winter quarters".
Winter certainly didnt stop the Chinese in Korea, nor did it stop the US Marines accomplishing the best-known withdrawal under fire. Summarized by General Puller when he said "Well, they have us completely surrounded. They Can't Get Away Now!"
An excellent presentation, thanks William.
One thing you missed: winter will also change targeting priorities. Less focus on ammo depots, more focus on whats needed to keep the oppositional troops alive. Food, shelter, gear.
Yeah I thought that might be the plan when himars started hitting barracks
@@JRDZ1993 Exactly. If they can target the fuel resupply they'll get a lot of force amplification benefits as well. Everyone standing watch is gonna keep the motors idling just to stay warm. Chances are high that kerosene heaters will be in use, which can use gas in a pinch. So fuel becomes even MORE critical. Cutting off gas will lead directly to more enemy loss churn to old man winter.
Excellent William... most encapsulating content.
The weather and the terrain are always neutral. They favor the side that is better prepared. "General Winter" was Russia's great ally because Hitler and Napoleon were foreigners operating in unfamiliar conditions. Ukraine is fighting for it's own home so they can use the weather just as well as the Russians.
And it bears reminding, during the invasions of both Napoleon and hitler, the Ukrainians were part of the defending force. They have just as much and probably more history repelling invasions into the russian empire/soviet union, owing to their position closer to the border during those and other conflicts(looking at you Sweden).
how is the country without electricity or gas and constantly begging for weapons, ammo and money better prepared?
@dosmundos That description also works for the soviet Union which begged for weapons and fuel all throughout WW2. Go look up how much fuel and equipment was given by American lend lease.
@dos: I guess you bots will find out, soon, especially if your master Putin sends you to the trenches.
@@advancetotabletop5328 oh ok, I'm sure a plane ticket will arrive shortly to take me to Europe 😂
This was very interesting. The new graphics make your explanations of what is happening much clearer.
Supposedly training units were cannibalized this summer to provide replacements so I have my doubts if the quality of the 'trained' conscripts will be good enough.
Catalytic devices will work and are pretty smokeless too....IMHO...Slava Ukraine....
Learnt a bunch of new things with this analysis, thanks!
Some very good points about troop behavior around this time of year.
There were already widespread reports about Russian forces drinking back in the summer and more recently mobilized forces immediately starting fires at their rallying grounds due to a lack of shelter.
Any drone with a thermal camera is going to see them like they've got a neon sign above their heads.
This seems like a fairly comprehensive look at the many factors involved in winter, can't really say much about it beyond that I think you covered most obvious and even quite a few less obvious factors.
What actually happens will become more clear through out the winter of course, but I suspect it will probably be along the lines you sketched.
Also nato has better equipment to supply ukraine with so they have the advantage, they are war machines with better weaponry than Russia. When this began my dad said he wouldnt be too concerned Russia probably wont be able to do it. And he was right. Go Ukraine!
Russia will be bankrupt again, soon. The Russian economy is smaller than that of the State of New York. Contemplate that. Slava Ukraini!
NATO has no equipment to supply Ukraine. Russia has 20% of the Worlds artillery, NATO has 5%. Same goes for ammo. The war has only one possible conclusion other than the money laundering going on in Ukraine.
As an infantry officer, we were encouraged to attack during adverse weather conditions because the discipline of defending units degrades as their soldiers prioritize seeking creature comforts. Conversely, since the attacker selects the time and place of engagement, their concerns are more pressing than a warmer spot next to the fire or another nip of vodka.
This, however, is the short term view on adverse weather. In the long term, adverse weather tends to favour the defender (assuming a single attack doesn't route them) as both logistics and rotation is usually easier for the defender.
Great deductions and interpretation of the ongoing conflict.
🇺🇸✌🏻🇺🇦 Complete victory to Ukraine!!
@João P K until the last occupied Ukrainians are liberated too
yes
then we are going to liberate moskow from russonazi rebels
to restore Kyivan Rus´, ruled by the Kyivan president Zelenskyy
@@worfoz Ukrainonazis* and Zelensky ruling Russia is just as probably as angels flying out of ur a$$.
@@saucyinnit8799 You should smell my farts...
🤩
@@worfoz that's crazy talk
@@whatisahandle_69 Indeed, he/she is joking about how Russia is saying the same.
I am very glad that the Ukrainian people especially the soldiers are trying to be the most prosperous proficient soldiers that there is they kind of mimic the US soldiers in time of war they are very resilient they are very smart they are very intelligent thank God for the attitude that you have that you at least can take care of or try to take care of your country no matter what happens in the matter what somebody throws at you you seem like you use it against them God bless you guys most of the people in the United States whether you think it or not they are for you not against you keep up the good work you will persevere you will win
The Ukrainian soldiers can utilize the native American way of building a fire underground you just dig two holes that are interconnecting that way the fire is underground but the heat proceeds up and it will be harder to trace especially if you put camouflage over the top and those NASA thermal blankets that reflect the heat so on the outside it looks cold and the inside it's warm.
Excellent enjoyed the show thanks Slava Ukraini !🇺🇦🦖✊
The problem the Russians will face in rotating troops back for R&R is that many of the troops will not return to the front.
i was going to add that
will the police have problems getting the returning troops from going once they hear what it truly is like
im watching for the street fights again like they had first time round
gb
@@raypitts4880 Also many of the police are also being mobilised.
Thank you Mr Spaniel.
Done winter training and exercises in northern Sweden.. Yes, you just keep going as usual, it just takes twice as long.. You do that and the other one is worse off, you win. Same as with if you got NVGs and the other one don´t, you fight at night..
I can see why the MREs we have come with chemical heating elements. In a winter climate it would probably help a lot to avoid making a fire
Excellent video!! Thank you so much for breaking the issue of winter into logical and influential elements. This video is both educational and thought-provoking.
Few other advantages which Ukraine will almost certainly have...
1. Less movement, means it is easier to hit fixed targets. Ukraine probably has an edge on precision weapons. Months of fixed lines means artillery and missile systems really start doing damage.
2. Winter also favors Ukraine in terms of recon and target spotting. Clouds, fog, snow, etc. will hurt Russia more as NATO has more radar and thermal satellites, Ukraine probably has better thermal imagines systems, US has massively better signals intelligence, and Ukraine always has better human intelligence. Russia may find it harder to target Ukrainian artillery and missile systems. This may also mean Ukraine can move it's troops (say for an offensive) without being spotted as easily.
3. Any pause might give Russia more time to get more troops there (debatable how well equipped they would be), but it also gives Ukraine time to switch to US/NATO systems. Adding even a few hundred M1 or Leopard 2 tanks or Gryphen or F16s would be far more of a game changer than say 50,000 more Russian troops. Likewise, it can mean more time for Ukrainians to train -- outside the country in warmer climates -- say Spain, US, etc.
4. Winter means supply issues in terms that you now have reduced capacity to move supplies, more need for basic goods, and thus less capacity for munitions and new equipment. This favors Ukraine as it can rely on high-accuracy munitions.
5. Russia destroyed so many buildings and infrastructure in their advance. As such, they have less intact buildings to shelter in. These also become easy targets with large potential for mass casualties.
6. While it may be more difficult to attack, it is also more difficult to counter attack in winter. If you can overwhelm and area, it is harder for Russia to move troops up and counter attack.
7. Ukraine can still perform a guerilla war during winter. It's harder to maintain solid lines or deal with partisan attacks. Attacks on railroads or roads in the rear lines are easily possible.
Good comment
Thanks for the video, helps me keep up to date when im in work.
Logistics favor Ukraine totally. Russia currently has 3 ways to re supply its forces in Ukraine. Kerch bridge, Coastal road that goes through Mariupol, and rail from Russia. I see a big offensive coming. Part of that will be taking out the Kirch, the rail lines and trucks as they haul supplies on the coast. I Expect that to happen soon as more snow falls, leaving the Russians with what they have on Hand like in Kherson. As a 20 Year Vet I know we used a lot more supplies in winter, warm is a problem and almost double food supplies. Wounded from the Cold and disease, can decimate an Army, the Russians have hygiene problems and it will worsen. The Cold, Russian will have a very big problem with it or was it all Propaganda? I think not, too many Prisoners, and intercepts of comms, taken by Ukraine to collaborate the kit problem, those kit tales.
The breakout will be fast overwhelming, a huge artillery barrage, as the breakout begins, catching them by surprise. Overrunning Artillery positions with fast moving mobile infantry attacking artillery positions that are no longer mobile, Fuel problems overall. The attacking force is back filed as it moves forward to secure left and right flanks with an Enemy that is on the run, pure chaos complimented by Ukrainian frequency Jamming effectively eliminating any command and control. Cross somewhere close to Zaporizhzhya and a surprise attack from Kidburn in force. A part of that force will swing Right following the Dnipro, the other going south. Artillery will back all of those of course, Himars, other long range guns in play opening the way for ground forces. Air defense forces added in case of Russian air defense. A feint will be made North of Bakhmut drawing eyes to it, a build up of soldiers,Tanks weapons and Artillery, even supplies being moved for an obvious Offensive, the bait Russians moving troops east already thinking they may take Bakhmut, a trap. Bakhmut is the bait also. Leaving Kherson Oblast pocket weak, as they did in Kherson City itself, as they ran out of supplies. I also Note Ukraine is now producing 120, 122, and 152 shells. Partisans will be a big help during the above operations. I would expect the attacking force to reach the sea of Azov with a mad rush routing the Russians as they move. Follow on forces and partisans mop up. Crimea has become a prisonLogistics favor Ukraine totally. Russia curentlu has 3 ways to re supply its forces in Ukraine. Kerch bridge, Cosatl road thatgoes through Mariuopol, and rail from Russia.
That is exactly what I have been thinking - as a zero year vet. Ukraine carefully building its supply of weapons with new, very deadly arms from the West. Training. Waiting and watching for Old Man Winter to soften up the orcs for the optimal time to strike. Blitzkrieg. "Conventional wisdom" is in January. But then, Ukraine has defied the conventional wisdom.
I also wonder if the US is working to develop a special weapon specifically designed to take out the Kerch Bridge.
@@KameraShy Ukraine has such a weapon already. A Russian weapon really modified.
I really, really hope that it pans out as you predict.
I did 19 years in the infantry, winter causes a general slow down in movement. A better equipped military, means a tactical advantage to the people able to take advantage of it. A Finnish style war would be used by the Ukrainian forces, but too much movement can lead to troop distribution being seen.
Hit the bridge again!!!!
Regarding Germanys energy issues there are reasons why supply won’t be the problem. Price maybe, but not supply:
1. the warm Oktober, which lowered demand for heating gas, because people didn’t turn on their radiators until November.
2. German industry calculates with a lot of buffer and holds it’s own reserves, so they were able to lower demand without hurting operations.
3. Energy usage by the industry went down because of lower production due to lower demand domestically and internationally.
4. German law says that in case of insufficient energy supply private homes are cut off last. Industry will have to reduce consumption first
5. National Reserve is almost full
So nobody is going to freeze. Prices will go up. Some companies will go under. By now it’s much more a cost of living crisis than a supply crisis.
Great videos, as always. 👍
Excellent analysis of winter war! Using the Winter War in Finland during 1939-40 vs the Nazi defeat in Stalingrad in 1942-43 shows the advantage to well prepared and motivated defenders vs aggressors. The words: 'Lean Lease', mentioned in this post, is the big difference. Moscow's supply chain is drying up and breaking down, while Ukraine's is flowing. Great weapons systems only work when soldiers are fed, clothed, and motivated by external resources. More soldiers will die of exposure, alcohol, and depression than from bullets during this winter. Battlefront trenches will become the open graves for many abandoned troops.
Both Ukraine and Russia knows how to fight in the Russian winter. The difference is the Ukrainian army is actually supplied for winter.
These videos are so good. Thanks for your analysis and effort 🙏
Also, remember that LOGISTICS is NOT Russia's forte.
russia is loosing cuz its corrupted from inside. there are so many vids that show how bad it is right now for russia(im russian)
As a Canadian who lives on the west coast and spends most of the winter commercial fishing I can tell you that 5 to -5 degrees c is not that bad. If you have the layers and a warm enough blanket just about anyone can be fairly comfortable
thanks
Thank you William .🇬🇧
The bit about Alcohol (not) warming you up is something I learned when my mother enrolled me in classes at the Temperance women when I was but a lad.
The lessons didn’t take. . .
I LOVE and Like your Language sir....well-done.
German here, I haven't turned on my radiator this winter at all. It's really not that hard to put on a hoody or two and we want to see Russia crumble as much as ever! Slava Ukraini
Kein Geld für Putins Krieg! Slava Ukraini!
Was so much good report. thanks
As a German: no one of my family or direct friends is a) at risk of not heating his/her home or b) would ask for an end to the war if that were to happen.
In addition, processes have been set in action that will further reduce our long-term on gas as a power source, and, by extent, Russia.
A lot of people suddenly started investing into solar energy and heat pumps.
Thanks!
I believe that the idea of people "halting" in winter, especially since russia routinely operates in Siberia, and Canada helped train the ukrainian soldiers. I totally agree. Winter Warfare comes down to Morale. Keeping post is difficult and caloric intake of the soldiers has to be high. So warm meals, rotating to warm tents and a method to dry pretty much anything is crucial. Also, make the soldiers build snow forts and have some fun in the snow, making equipment sleds for recce, and providing some light duties while they wait is also very important. The most important is warm calories.
Excellent thank u from canada
One minor correction to your video. You seemed to imply that only Russia will benefit from this winter "pause" in regards to training. While Russia can use these winter months to increase the readiness of their conscripted and poorly motivated older men, alcoholics, convicts, and semi-literate farmers, giving additional training to a largely un-receptive cadre of recruits can only incrementally improve their ability to fight effectively. Meanwhile Ukraine will also be making use of the winter slowdown to train their new recruits/reservists as well, and the training will be of a significantly higher quality in the area of new tank crews, artillery units, air defense systems, etc. Meanwhile many Russian troops will be taught to dig trenches, latrines, and bunkers.
German here: my mom just gifted me some warm socks for Christmas. I’ll rather be cold than letting Russian aggression succeed.
The lightning attack was predicated on Ukraine's knowledge that Russia had chosen to fortify the south at the expense of the north. It sounds like Ukraine will make gains as long as they maintain good intelligence of Russian movement and have the resources they need when those opportunities come.
Ukraine having keeping good intelligence? Highly likely
Russia doing something stupid? Highly likely
Ukraine having the resources to capitalize?
Unknown
Patriot missile systems, Leopard2 Tanks and REAPER DRONES!!! This is my Christmas wish list for Ukraine.