Updated 2024 SEC Football Win Projections w/KFord Ratings
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- Опубликовано: 23 июл 2024
- SEC Mike is joined by Kelley Ford of KFord Ratings to share the latest update of his SEC analytics projecting the 2024 SEC Football season!
0:00 - intro
0:55 - KFord model explained
4:00 - KFord SEC projections
4:10 - Alabama
8:30 - Arkansas
9:50 - Auburn
13:10 - Florida
16:55 - Georgia
19:50 - Kentucky
22:11 - LSU
25:30 - Ole Miss
32:45 - Mississippi State
35:10 - Missouri
38:45 - Oklahoma
42:20 - South Carolina
45:15 - Tennessee
47:40 - Texas
51:15 - Texas A&M
55:00 - Vanderbilt
57:00 - Most & Least confidence teams?
58:50 - How many Playoff teams from the SEC?
1:01:30 - Return of EA Sports CFB game 
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Boy, I have heard all the hyperoble around the Gators' schedule but I had never heard it put like this. When you say we have to play half of the top 11 in the last 5 weeks, that is just ...man. When you put it that way, if we manage to be 6-6 and go to a bowl, I'm saying give Billy an extension. lol
I do think yall are 6-6 or 7-5 cause I think ur beating LSU... extension for Billy?? alright by me!
Florida has a gauntlet this year (and next) for a schedule.
SEC will cannibalize each other and the committee will screw the hell out of them. Strength of schedule should mean a lot.
It should ...to a point...but WINNING versus expectations of strength of schedule still of course must be weighted in terms of number of losses....I think a two loss ACC team should still get preference over a three loss SEC team....I don't want ANY 3 loss team in unless they are somehow a CONFERENCE CHAMPION....that keeps the sanctity of the regular season...meaning you STILL hafta win!...versus just generally be successful versus a tough schedule... I hope 2 losses is the cutoff point for at-Large playoff teams...this ISNT MARCH MADNESS college football style...at least I hope not....
Florida could go 7-5/8-4
AFTER beating those 2 loss ACC teams.
@@jmjones7897 true but it's not about how strong u are or how tough you are compared to someone else you won't play...it's about how many games you win with your schedule...
@@brettrobinson2901 but schedules aren't created equal, an ACC team that goes 10-2 would go 8-4 in the SEC and Big 10
@@tannerjones6564 I agree..but I no schedule has ever exactly equal I still would prefer a 10-2 team over an 8-4 team...otherwise ALL the slots would go generally to Big 10 and SEC teams ..how often has a once beaten or undefeated Fighting Irish team gotten the nod bowl wise or playoff wise because of who they were...beating out teams with a lesser record but much stronger schedule...you'll never satisfy everyone..personally I think they should stop pussyfootin' around around and go to 16 teams...that way no extra games conference Champs are automatically in..the rest at large AND THEN USE STRENGTH of schedule to seed the matchups...then of course that first and maybe 2nd round could be at home to reward the tougher schedule..16 to 8 to 4 to CHAMPEEN!!!...MAYBE even atop 32 and drop the regular season back to 11games..
I do have to laugh that he has UT's conference sched at 14th in the conference when they play GA, Bama, OU, FL and KY
Ou with only 30 percent chance at beating texas discredits this whole thing.
Just remember when talking OU Vs Texas. OU 11 - UT 4. Over last 15 years. Yes it’s a tough game and anything can happen but that’s barely a rival type schedule if at all.
You do realize now that you guys are in a new conference, what you have done in the Big 12 no longer matters, right? So, if Texas wins, they are 1-0 against OU. Welcome to reality.
UT = TN
@@greenwave819 Nobody knows Tennessee as UT, bro. Keep dreaming. I am from North Carolina and travel nationwide asking this question, and it was always Texas. I only got Tennessee from Tennessee people 😂
@@JuiceThaGoat1Well they CAN'T have TU either!....THAT !...belongs to Tulsa U . exclusively!......... Or is it Tulane?.....or Toledo?.....🤔
UT is Tennessee and I'm from California
Always good content cousin Mike
BOOMER!
Ok so Kentucky practically has owned Florida, even in Gainesville as of lately, and definitely has owned Louisville as well but this guy has them with a 31 percent chance to beat FL, and 50 percent to beat Louisville?? Thats hilarious. I swear all these dudes do is take numbers and project them out, well numbers dont always tell the story. Watching the games and how well coached each team matters, and talent. Florida might beat Kentucky this year, but as from what ive seen Kentucky is a better program, with more talent, so im pretty confident in their ability to go into Gainesville and beat Florida. This isn't Urban meyers gators. And UK just skull drags loserville almost every year.
lol no one wants to talk about Stooops or bum ass Kentucky 😂😂😂🤡🤡
The Bog 12 is 9 - 6 in the 2020’s, 1990’s big 12-18 sec 28. So a good idea of what’s been going on between the conferences.
It’s not like Oklahoma has been playing in A high school league. Doing it week in and week out is the difference. OU probably has 3 tougher games on their schedule than what they are used to having on their schedule.
80% of the SEC can't handle week in and week out. Very top heavy conference with a bunch of middling teams....polls and bowls prove that every single year
"The Bog 12 is 9 - 6 in the 2020’s, 1990’s big 12-18 sec 28. So a good idea of what’s been going on between the conferences." What are you talking about? Seriously, not a troll, not trying to be a jerk. I do not understand your words.
@@andrewc7937 Looks like cumulative record of big 12 vs sec in the 90s and in the 2020s. Big 12 is 9-6 vs the sec in the 2020s.
In a neutral site, id take Mizz, Tennessee, Bama, Georgia, and Ole Miss all to beat Texas. Texas has one good year and now they are unbeatable to a lot of people. This is the same coach and team that was losing 5 games or so a couple years back in the weak Big 12.
🤣🤡
Just be you y’all. Just be you! We love ya!
Great content guys keep it coming
Mike Elko SZN - watch out!
K Ford, your model will be wrong about Oklahoma. That's you not doing enough research on your part.
Probably should let your guy know next year's SEC schedule will mirror this year's.
TN 10 - 2, 11 - 1, maybe 12 - 0. Vegas has us at 9.5. Love your music Mike at the start.
So why do you have Oklahoma ranked higher than Ole Miss and have their defense ranked 15th Ole Miss ranked 16th, then you have Oklahoma ranked 15th on offense and Ole Miss ranked 7th . Also special teams you have Oklahoma ranked 97th to Ole Miss 26th.
Discussions like this are always good fun, but let's face it. The figures assigned to come up with these projections are all arbitrary. Sure, they can pull metrics like "returning production," but there are multiple different ways to even calculate a single metric like that, and then the weight that such a metric plays into the final prediction is, well, arbitrary.
Predicting win loss records isn't a science that you can actually measure and calculate like mass, velocity, or acceleration. Humans playing on a playing field aren't a set of numbers in a video game. Sports statistics are a description of what has happened in the past, not a prediction of what will happen in the future.
We haven't seen it yet with ole miss ....... 3rd most SEC wins in the last 3 years. 2 of 3 of those years 10+ win seasons. Returning a 3rd year QB and the top overall receiving core in the country. Not to mention the top portal class. Fix the model.
OU 14 Texas 4. That’s the series record over the last 15 years. Just thought I’d share that since people probably think it’s the other way around. Oklahoma has been beater and way way way more consistent with multiple coaches than Texas and it’s not even close. Big 12 championships OU 14 Texas 4. There is no question what program will be the winningest and more consistent program because it has been for the past 50 years. The trend is t just going to change. BV as a coach has a better record than Sark. It’s taken sark over a decade to win double digit wins. It’s taken BV 2 years. There are so many facts based on 50 years of history which program is better prepared to enter into the SEC. It’s not even arguable. They may have a better record next year but lose to us again and still ranked higher when the two teams schedules are completely opposite of each other. Where OU has one of the toughest in the SEC Texas has one of the easiest.
Everyone knows vandy will dominate this conference
Yea. Goodnight ark
As a Michigan fan, I can't wait to welcome Texas to the Big House and Ann Arbor, Michigan. I hope they bring plenty of bandages because when the game is over, they will be bruised, bloody and beaten! They are fix'n to learn what smashmouth football is all about!
The Big House will be appropriately named after Texas puts a BIG ass whipping on the Kittylines.
Dawgs will be undefeated
Not if they play Ohio State in the playoffs
@@JWCFB The Bucklies....who can't beat Michigan? 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@motivateddedicated98 Alabama couldn't beat Michigan either but they haven't had any problem beating Georgia so you ain't makin no sense. BTW, Michigan has more wins than any CFB program in history.
@@JWCFB GUMPS LOST TO A 2 STAR 🌟 WALK ON FOR THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP 🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@JWCFB tell me the last time these dumb Gumps were 12 - 0..... before covid ? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
Oklahoma and Georgia 11-1. Meet in rematch in Atlanta ga for SEC tile game 🏈 OU get revenge on georgia
KFord, Miss. States schedule is way harder as Georgias. Not crying about it, just saying .... prove me wrong !
No it's not, miss state's non con is Eastern Kentucky, Arizona State, Toledo and UMass, that's horrible
@@tannerjones6564 is UMass, GT, TN Tech and Clemson better for the #1 team in the country ? And you play Clemson literally at home dont you ?
Mizzou beat tennesee and kentucky bad last year so no big deal.
And Tennessee beat Mizz and Kentucky in 21 and 22. What's your point? Hell they scored 120 plus points on Mizz in those 2 years.
I am an old OU fan, and I wish I had a dollar for every time that Texas was hyped up to be a championship team. I would be very wealthy. Models are not worth spit. Texas will fold like a wet sheet as soon as the season starts. I will take Texas Tech over Texas this year.
🤡
Facts! “They have this top 5 recruiting class and are going to run through the big 12.” Followed by 5-7. What 1 big 12 title in the last 15 years? They had 3 tough games last year and lost 2 of them. Just like sark being ranked a top 3-5 coach in the country. One double digit win season in 10 seasons as a head coach. Gtfo, Texas is trash.
@@myrandommind1691 you mean while Oklahoma lost to Kansas and Okie State, who Texas destroyed? "Gtfoh"
@@Mark-zx2bqwho did Texas lose to? 🤔
Vegas wins in the long run for a reason...
Ga 12-0
😂
Sure do wish Kelley Ford would slow down!!! Can’t keep up with the fast yelling
Lmao Ga has beat Bama 1 times out of 5 and Georgia is getting that dawg ass whipped again,they won’t be able to defend the Bama offense
Your special weapon is gone. Bama will have their struggles year 1 under the new coaching
@@tannerjones6564 evidently you haven’t seen Saban is still on the payroll as an advisor,so you can bet they’ll be going to Saban on beating Kirby as Saban is Kirby’s daddy
@@johnlee4763he won't be calling plays!
Razorbacks beat Texas
South Carolina is not far from being in company with Vandy. SC should go to the ACC and they might get to a bowl. Lol
SC>Arky, Miss St, Kentucky, Vandy. So yeah not far but y'all always talk crazy, at least we don't lose to Vandy unlike others.
Go pull up Georgia fans before and after playing bama in the last 15 years 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 and you poor fools keep swelling them overated heads up
Just started the pod. This guy needs to share what he's smoking if he thinks ALA only has a 52% chance against OU at the end of the season.
It'll be a blowout. OU will not be good this year. 6-6 to 9-3, and 9-3 would mean Arnold is a top 3 QB, & the 5 new Oline guys gel perfectly from day 1.
I see 9-3 as the floor, not the ceiling
Your smoking something strong if you think Alabama is going to walk into Norman Oklahoma and win by blowout. 😂
I guess we will see. If Arnold is a top 3 QB OU will be in the SEC championship game.
@clarkd2742 I don't think it's crazy to think we'd win at home against Bama. Are you a tide fan, or do you really think they'll be that dominant. I know they're gonna be great, but I don't see any kinda blowout. It's pre season and it's all speculation for sure.
Agreed. They're use to struggling with Kansas and OK state level teams. Their fans are delusional if they think they have a shot winning the SEC this season.
Texas fans think winning 10 games and beating Bama is like a championship. Vince Young was a long time ago Texas fans. A friendly reminder, 14 of the last 21 titles come from the SEC, 1 from the Little 12.
yall need to slow down on ole miss. Smoke and mirrors.
Boomer Sooners Baby
GA will be 8-4 They have the hardest schedule in school history.. They are losing week one to Clemson
I am a Auburn fan and we are huge rivals and Ik that is just not happening
Interesting take, what 4 games do you suppose the Dawgs will drop. I see you got Clemson as one. I don't really care cause I'm a sooner. But it's also cool to discuss, Georgia has been pretty darn good the last 3 years.
I want whatever your smokin' if you think Clemson is beating UGA.
Not losing to Clemson
Schedule def. more difficult
😂😂😂😂 been hearing this trash for 3 straight years..... 12 - 0 for 3 straight years
Texas is overrated every damn year. This year is no different
Alabama > Georgia and Texas
no
@@brenton1871 yes
On a video game
Sorry but Saban is gone
Bama hasn't had a incredible defense like early to middle Saban, they won with offense, and they significantly upgraded there offense staff I think they will be just fine.
Adding the win percentages isn't the right way to go about it... you should instead run a monte carlo simulation on all those various probabilities
Alabama 13-0
I appreciate these guys for what they do but I will always believe that college football is probably the least friendly sport to this type of statistical analysis. For instance, his model gives Penn State a boost for having Drew Allar and his production from last year returning. It does not consider the fact that Drew Allar is terrible and is a liability for the team. It doesn't consider things like schedule order and how that affects momentum and wear and tear, or the wife variance in stadium environments. Models like these are basically irrelevant to this sport, but they are still fun to talk about.