Honestly I do feel like many underestimate Mexico a bit during this time. The 1910-1920 revolution (which had its most intense phases between 1911 and mid-1915) would ensure that well over 100k well-armed, well-trained, recently experienced soldiers would be ready to meet any US invasion, so imo it wouldn't be some instant walkover for America in terms of them invading south. Though to be clear Mexico invading Texas wasn't on the table and anyone with a brain knew that. The US army in early 1917 though was, what, a few 10k strong, with 100k national guard. Not nearly enough to both invade and occupy Mexico and maintain order at home. Off course, had either Wilson or Carranza blown it and stumbled into a war then yeah the US would mobilise its huge potential and utterly steamroll mexico starting late 1917 or at the latest in early 1918, but it wouldn't be some repeat of 1848 imho. Listen to Mike Duncan's revolutions podcast on the mexican revolution and you'll see why. Mexico, though weak, wasn't helpless. The 1916 "punishment expedition" to capture Villa was hardly a great showing for the US army, at one point they stumbled into a local shooting conflict with the regular mexican army and very much suffered the worst of it (losing like half the force), nor where they greeted in Mexico with warmth by either the government, the army or the people. Carranza was just smart enough to not raise the stakes further and get Wilson to diplomatically and quietly back off after the 1916 election was over. So yeah, america would obviously win, but it would only do so after raising an army of sufficient size, which would take 6-12 months, and would probably prevent them from sending as much to France as they did IRL. Where it all becomes fancifull is anyone claiming that this somehow causes Germany to win its spring offensives. No, it wouldn't. The US army wasn't the decisive factor on the western front until the 100 days offensive (where they absolutely DO deserve praise), and the french and british would have stopped the kaiserschlacht by themselves anyway, and basically did. And finally, even without the 100 days offensive (which, true, very well might not happen if the US has been distracted by Mexico), Germany is probably still done by the end of 1918. Bulgaria, Austria and the Ottomans are all but dead and flat-out CANNOT survive 1918 if Germany doesn't win in France (which again, even without the US, they couldn't), and once those nations crack the Balkans and the Alps are gonna be open to Entente armies, whatever happens on the western front. If Germany doesn't surrender when it does IRL, then 1919 would have opened with the Entente attacking into Bavaria, Austria, Hungary and Ukraine until Berlin accepts defeat, which they would. TLDR, Not everything is inevitable, but the defeat of WWI germany by the time of the Zimmerman Telegram, very much was, whatever Mexico and the US would or would not have done. Thank you for coming to my TED-talk
I recommend, "What everyone gets wrong about China invading Taiwan " by William Spaniel. Its a long 90 minute video; however, its probably one the most detailed video on the platform on the situation I have seen anywhere.
5:17 That was the Poncho Villa Expedition in 1915, so it was during WWI but before the US got involved. The Mexican Revolutionary, Poncho Villa raided some US border towns and the US military invaded parts of Northern Mexico to capture him/discourage future raids on US territory. Edit: Oh right the 1914 Veracruz occupation too. That was due to some US sailors getting arrested in Veracruz, if I am not mistaken.
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Honestly I do feel like many underestimate Mexico a bit during this time. The 1910-1920 revolution (which had its most intense phases between 1911 and mid-1915) would ensure that well over 100k well-armed, well-trained, recently experienced soldiers would be ready to meet any US invasion, so imo it wouldn't be some instant walkover for America in terms of them invading south. Though to be clear Mexico invading Texas wasn't on the table and anyone with a brain knew that. The US army in early 1917 though was, what, a few 10k strong, with 100k national guard. Not nearly enough to both invade and occupy Mexico and maintain order at home. Off course, had either Wilson or Carranza blown it and stumbled into a war then yeah the US would mobilise its huge potential and utterly steamroll mexico starting late 1917 or at the latest in early 1918, but it wouldn't be some repeat of 1848 imho. Listen to Mike Duncan's revolutions podcast on the mexican revolution and you'll see why. Mexico, though weak, wasn't helpless. The 1916 "punishment expedition" to capture Villa was hardly a great showing for the US army, at one point they stumbled into a local shooting conflict with the regular mexican army and very much suffered the worst of it (losing like half the force), nor where they greeted in Mexico with warmth by either the government, the army or the people. Carranza was just smart enough to not raise the stakes further and get Wilson to diplomatically and quietly back off after the 1916 election was over. So yeah, america would obviously win, but it would only do so after raising an army of sufficient size, which would take 6-12 months, and would probably prevent them from sending as much to France as they did IRL.
Where it all becomes fancifull is anyone claiming that this somehow causes Germany to win its spring offensives. No, it wouldn't. The US army wasn't the decisive factor on the western front until the 100 days offensive (where they absolutely DO deserve praise), and the french and british would have stopped the kaiserschlacht by themselves anyway, and basically did. And finally, even without the 100 days offensive (which, true, very well might not happen if the US has been distracted by Mexico), Germany is probably still done by the end of 1918. Bulgaria, Austria and the Ottomans are all but dead and flat-out CANNOT survive 1918 if Germany doesn't win in France (which again, even without the US, they couldn't), and once those nations crack the Balkans and the Alps are gonna be open to Entente armies, whatever happens on the western front. If Germany doesn't surrender when it does IRL, then 1919 would have opened with the Entente attacking into Bavaria, Austria, Hungary and Ukraine until Berlin accepts defeat, which they would.
TLDR, Not everything is inevitable, but the defeat of WWI germany by the time of the Zimmerman Telegram, very much was, whatever Mexico and the US would or would not have done.
Thank you for coming to my TED-talk
Very insightful
I recommend, "What everyone gets wrong about China invading Taiwan " by William Spaniel. Its a long 90 minute video; however, its probably one the most detailed video on the platform on the situation I have seen anywhere.
5:17 That was the Poncho Villa Expedition in 1915, so it was during WWI but before the US got involved.
The Mexican Revolutionary, Poncho Villa raided some US border towns and the US military invaded parts of Northern Mexico to capture him/discourage future raids on US territory.
Edit: Oh right the 1914 Veracruz occupation too. That was due to some US sailors getting arrested in Veracruz, if I am not mistaken.
I love your videos
Have you done oversimplified videos?