You're Drafting The Wrong Receivers
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- Опубликовано: 6 июл 2024
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I'm from the future, don't draft Percy Harvin this year
Thank you for saving me🙏🏻
Do u like Jefferson or st brown more?
@@markgauthier2480 st brown. I don't need to time travel to know that.
Would have been more helpful if you came from the past
I'm from the past, don't draft Trent Richardson
Not taking any Vikings, not with Darnold or McCarthy behind center
The historical metrics remind me how old I am, and how many players i forgot ever existed
My favorite thing is looking at these random names for 2011-2016 era
The Dexter McCluster effect 😂
Here’s something I’m curious about: you gave us a bunch of WR historical comps using Addison’s full season. Because his situation is different now, what if you pulled the data from only the games jettas played AND kirk cousins was not throwing, and then found the WR comps from that data? I imagine this would be a more accurate comp. Thanks for the solid vid FF!
Just really hard to pull that 3-4 game sample and try to pretend like it's a 16-17 game year for comps
Could you potentially make the case that due to the QB play for the Minnesota Vikings, Addison would probably find himself closer to Elijah Moore's points per game than your median projection of about 16 fantasy points per game? I am not disagreeing Addison could be a value however maybe he isn't as massively discounted as we think? Maclin had Vick, Harvin had Favre, Lamb had Dak, Tee had Burrow, JuJu had Big Ben, Hakeem had Eli, AND Fitz had Kurt Warner. Every other QB on this list is either borderline hall of fame or is a HOF QB. It is not fair to say an unproven QB in the NFL can produce 16 fantasy points per week for Addison (without seeing him play first). Just some food for thought, great video overall!
All those players were also WR1s in their offenses. Addison is a distant 2 to JJ
@@EndlessFootball I agree to an extent. Jordan Addison is a highly talented receiver he just plays across from one of THE most talented WR's. I don't hate the philosophy it is more of the statistical reasoning I don't agree with
@@OutlierFantasy no shade to Addison. I see JJ as the best receiver in the NFL and I think he still has room to improve his game. I expect him to break the NFL receiving yards record and end his career as the GOAT at the position.
This years draft is so confusing bruh
WRs prices are just tough
i love how a week later after this video addison gets arrested for a potential DUI
Keep it up mason! Love your videos and they help a ton. Love hopping in the live streams every evening!
Hell yeah , hope to draft with you tonight my guy
Addison is due for severe td regression. I can see a jahan dotson type sophomore season
Yep. I could see him keeping pace with yards and receptions, (maybe) but I think TDs in that offense overall will be tough to come by.
I don't see the comparison at all. Addison is a much better receiver. He legit consistently was getting separation on the opposing teams best corners.
@truthbringer-6748 jahan dotson basically put up same stats as rookie but scored 4 less so he wasn't worth draft capital if he only scores 5 tds he bust. Major stat .8 td per game with cousins .3 tds per game with other qbs last season
Spot on, I just traded Addison for a 25 1st projected to be top 4. I think it’ll end up looking like a steal on my part
@@truthbringer-6748No he wasn’t. I’m a Vikings fan and saw Jordan Addison get pressed out of so many games. He’s tiny and not a special athlete. He’s a good route runner but around WR40 in all metrics (separation score, PFF grade, etc)
I actually don’t think he will regress in TDs. Our WR2 behind JJ always gets a lot of TDs because defenses focus on him in the red zone. Addison’s bigger problem is the offense likes to move JJ around to get free releases. But Addison needs those free releases himself in order to succeed
The problem with these rankings is that best ball is different from normal redrafts. In best bell Jordan Addison is valuable because he can have the spike weeks to carry you but in normal redrafts you look for consistency and higher floor values to edge out the W on a weekly basis.
This is a prediction best ball channel 😐
@@linooliva3965 I know it is but I think that drafting somebody because of a random spike week is different than someone being a staple part of the offense every week.
@@RawDollar umm 🤨 you answered your own question spike weeks
@@linooliva3965 The info on this channel is also useful for redraft and dynasty.
@@KoreanMitch not saying it isn’t but this is clearly a best ball video and the discourse on Addison although valuable isn’t really worth calling these rankings a problem as it pertains to this point in draft season late just early august though that’s definitely redraft heavy
I understand he had a great year last season I personally trust the player I just don’t like the situation. His price reflects the downside with the darnold/mccarthy issue and Addison will struggle to get his volume from last year with Justin back as well. He will get less targets and more inaccurate targets. He also had 10 touchdowns last year which is due for some regression and will not repeat
The thing with addison is you would be drafting him as a regular season player, hockenson could be back by week 15, his production could fall off once we get to the important weeks
Or the rookie QB improves by then
Week 15 a long way away
I love Addison as a player, and am excited to see the Vikes this year, but have such little faith that he'll do better than his ADP.
The comparable receivers had qb's like: Eli Manning, Josh McCown, Big Ben, Joe Burrow, Dak, Brett Farve, Donovan McNabb, Zach Wilson (drafted due to our performance of Sam Darnold), while Addison has a journeyman QB in Darnold or an unknown but solid ROOKIE in JJ, who will likely be rushed out there before he is ready. A better group of RBs in Aaron Jones and a more experienced Ty Chandler with another year under his belt, with each of those rbs definitely going to be commanding some amount of target share.
I do like that Addison will likely always be the #2 receiver with Jefferson around, getting less CB competition/less double team & the fact that Hockenson will likely be recovering for a while this year, and have about 23% Addison just due to his adp being so low and those round 6 wr are the last receivers that I'm happy or excited about taking.
If addison is in the slot 90% of the time darnold will throw to him in a panic with no TJ 😂
Touchdown regression is coming for Addison. Look at the efficiency numbers. Compound that with the unknown QB play, the change in scheme, target competition from JJ, and the signing of Aaron Jones. Addison is priced accurately considering the risk and the limited ceiling.
Thanks again sir 👍
Much love my guy. Hope you're enjoying your summer
Thank you Mason for all that you do
Thank you for the support my guy!
haven't drafted much this year but that was also my first take...why is Addison going so far?! Seems crazy! Dude is a beast. Took him in all the drafts I've done so far.
I understand the worries about QB play, just think the discount is too much
the thing you are forgetting is all those guys other than addison on that list in the 2nd year were WR 1s in their offense
That's just factually incorrect, we show the Cousins splits in this video
@@Flockfantasyyeah my b lmaoo the points were wrong but the WR1 was right, i derped my b
does that scare you in terms of the worse qb?
Thank you mason with uploading so frequently and consistently post good content. It really helps with winning my leagues. Much love ❤
Trying my best my guy!
Jordan Addison coming out of college had the exact same or worse metrics than Jerry jeudy. The two comp pretty well and jeudy was most definitely a bust
What metrics are you looking at?
My biggest question is, why is Malik Nahbers going at the 2-3 turn? Daniel Jones has NEVER produced a top 30 receiver in his career, and even the most talented rookie WRs in the past have RARELY been drafted prior to round 5. I'll have 0 shares of him this year.
I mean to be fair who has Daniel Jones been throwing to?
Yeah that price point is terrible for him.
He’s pretty much all they got lol
I don’t have a lot of shares of him bc I still think he’s goin a bit too early imo
I actually take Theo Johnson a TON in the last bc someone has to produce in this offense and I’d rather take a shot on someone towards the end of draft! I do think Nabers is gonna ball out tho maybe something like Addison from last season when Jefferson was out but rookies are always unpredictable 🤷🏽♂️
jordan addison simply can’t have a better year next year,
justin jefferson got injured
kirk cousins was there
now jj is back and kirk is gone
we got sam darnold or a rookie qb throwing the ball and he’s got the best receiver in the league to battle over targets?
i’m not drafting him this year, he’s leaning towards a massive regression.
I’m not drafting justin jefferson over amon ra this year either.
All the age 22 receivers that you reference didn’t have a Justin Jefferson in year two
Addison will b very good this season. All focus on JJ leaves him open and not doubled.
Yikes
I love the pregnant pauses
Jordan Addison has QB questions. Puts him lower imo. If KC was there I would agree with you.
If KC was there he would be going late 3rd with Flowers
@@Flockfantasy he wouldn't
how do you create your historical comps?
Yo mason what up bro. Is BBM filling faster this year? My best teams were drafted late in August. Seems like this may fill sooner
I have a ton of odunze. All off season it was all about the big 3 wr prospects this year, but the second the draft happens and he gets target competition people got Jsn flashbacks. And now he goes 5-6 rounds after Harrison and nabers. I do have to mix in some Addison tho
Totally agree that Addison is great value and easily above Odunze, but idk about more targets, even with Osborn gone (who did go to NE a place that has no wr's and still he's not drafted in UD and projected very low wr depth there, meaning should be easy for random guys to take similar targets or Osborn should be drafted consistently on UD).... Jefferson was hurt half the year and eats targets
Also my most drafted wr. Thought i was biased bc of my love for the vikes but seems like a perfect best ball play
I think Addison and Flowers are overdrafted, I think both will take pretty big stock hits after this season
rome clears addison. keenan and dj are gonna take turns missing games and his ceiling is top 6
Addison where he is at compared to other top tier #2's is a great grab. There's a lot of check marks for being the 2nd year badass, the mid-season QB switch feels like the spot we see some drop off but primed into the end of the year. Odunze could be in the same spot Addison is right now next year but the fact he's going right next to him rn is a little wild.
Aaron jones has a high probobility of being the #2 target earner on the vikings, not including that the vikings are probobaly a much more run heavy team with a rookie QB and no Hockenson
He's not a bellcow. Even if they are more run heavy, that just means more work for Aaron Jones AND Ty Chandler. I wouldn't bet on KOC changing up his whole scheme for their rookie QB.
@@willg1315 you realize that's his job right? Good coaches create schemes around their players...not make a scheme and try and force it to work
@blainelacquement8808 Either way, I don't think Aaron Jones is who you think he is, if you think he's going to be a huge part of a now run-heavy offense on a team that still has Jefferson & Addison to feed, and a very capable backup in Ty Chandler.
I respect your opinion but as an Aaron Jones owner 2 years ago, who faded him hard last year and felt great about it, I think he's a trap.
@@willg1315 my point is it's a down side to Addison, not an upside to Aaron Jones...Aaron Jones could have a mediocre year and still be #2 in targets on the team
Would be curious to see how much of the historical data of round 1 WR draft picks production and their target share. I would think that most of the higher-end prospects with a solid rookie season were also the WR1 on their team going into the following year. Always love your use of historical data in your analysis, but feel as this may be an outlier situation.
Yup useful to look at the context, historical data says Addison should be drafted around WR 18, his situation is worse than average so probably should be lower. But WR 39 low?
Also curious if the Vikings are bad and they embrace it, then they could be starting JJ over Darnold in the later weeks of the season which could hurt his production even more
@@Flockfantasy agree with WR39 being too low. And even last year with Jefferson out, Hock still got plenty of targets so Jefferson coming back doesnt hurt as bad to start with Hock being out. One injury to either of those guys puts Addison right back at the top. Especially taking him over Rome, even coming as a Chicago fan
@@Day1Lonzo Or help 🤷♂️ Levis 1st week threw 4 TDs. I get he fell off, but I think JJ is a better prospect.
@@miamivlad I dont think one outlier week for one other rookie QB on a different team last year is enough of a reason to tell me otherwise.
I think the only appeal for curtis samuel is the question mark that is the bills offense. Feels like a fun pick for weekly winners
Addison has the higher floor, but Rome has the higher ceiling imo.
Im staying away from rome cause for at least this year it feels like the jackson smith ngiba situation from last year.
If drafting Addison, is it worth skinny stacking with a Vikings QB? I'm guessing Darnold is the play for early season, and JJ for late season. In my mind, if Addison is worth a pick, then Jefferson will be eating too, and one of those QBs will greatly outperform their ADP.
At some point this season Klay is gonna be asked to come off the bench for the betterment of the team. I wonder what his reply will be
Don’t sleep on those Green Bay receivers
Which one are you on? I think I'm going to be overweight Musgrave
DD fantasy channel did a great deep dive on Green Bay and Jayden Reed is his guy
Watson or reed otherwise im out
if you told me to draft brandin cooks over mccaffrey i would do it
The graphics in this video really make it pop great stuff!
Pickens is also creeping too far up. Look at how drake london did in Arthur Smith's run first offense with no target competition... yeah...
Yeah Pickens has gotten expensive. I've drafted enough for now unless he comes down
Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy make Addison an iffy pic at round 7. Rome already said he beating Puka rookie record
Easier said than done
Rome has a worse head coach and OC, he is the #3 WR on his team instead of #2, playing outside in Chicago in the winter vs. a dome in Minnesota and he has a rookie QB as well
Can you make a video about tips for espn leagues and the adp there?
Yup! When we get to August I'll focus specifically for ESPN. These videos should help now regardless though
@@FlockfantasyThanks!
Yahoo too!
Best teeth in the game at it again 😤
9:40 bro where are you getting Pittman past round 5? Let me know lol.
Ehh Samuel was like a WR2 or auto PPR flex for the first half of the season it seemed
Locket could be the 3rd wr target on his own team. Samuel has a chance to be 1 A or 1B
Agree both are best ball picks ideally.
I’ll take Curtis if you have to choose to start them easily
Lost me at Jordan Addison 😂
You are lost
If you had to choose to keep Bijan at the cost of a 1st round pick or Gibbs at the cost of a 3rd round pick, which would you choose? I’ve been mulling it over all offseason
Gibbs for me at that cost
Gibbs all day and you still have a chance to draft Bijan in 1st rnd for a double headed monster if you want to go that route. But yeah, Gibbs all the way in rnd 3, amazing value!!!
Greetings and Salutations,
My guy, thank you for your patience, time, and efforts.
Appreciate you sticking with me for so long my guy!
Im 4:46 into this video & the name J.J McCarthy has not been brought up yet in relation to Addison. Its a massive & I mean MASSIVE difference to have Kirk throwing the ball vs J.J. Thats the hard truth of it. Addison might be great, but can J.J have 2 1,000 yard guys as a rookie? Doubtful. I see Addison as a fringe FLEX play in regular leagues & between WR 35-40 in best ball. I think hes accurately ranked. If I lose because of it, so be it.
Yup I dive into the Cousins splits & impact in the vid
I think Darnold starts. JJ is young and raw. Either QB is an improvement over what the Vikes had since Cousins went down. Also, they couldn’t establish a consistent run game last year, I think that will change and take some pressure off the QBs. Many are looking at the Vikes QBs as glass half empty, but it also could be glass half full. I’m all in on Addy at his current value. He’s been my flex or even bench in a lot of UD drafts. I’ll take that all day.
@@miamivlad just to clarify, I’m not saying dont take him at value…WR 35-40. But 16ppg and WR 15-20 is way too high for Addison. Even with Darnold, who also stinks by the way.
With that being said, Addison is very talented, I believe in his skill set & I know hes a great player…just dont believe in whats around him in a tough division as well.
@@griffinzager2412 Agree, perfectly said. It’s unlikely Addy will AVERAGE 16+ points per game for the entire season, but his value is enticing enough where he can have those big boom games and we love that in BB drafts. As you can tell, I’m betting Darnold and/or JJ will surprise a lot of people and deliver better performance than expected. The surrounding talent and coaching is definitely there for them to thrive. Like Mason says, I’m an idiot so what do I know 🤷♂️🤣🤣🤣
Mason! What do you think of Jerry Jeudy?! Am I the only one crazy for thinking that now he’s on a new roster and his last 2 seasons he’s caught almost everything thrown his way??
I feel his career had been handicapped by the likes of Drew Lock and Rusty Wilson
Sitting at 35% Addison currently, think the player profile is a slam dunk but I also think Kevin O’Connell is a great OC and produced a 400 yard game with nick mullens. Sam Darnold also had his first competent coaching staff last year teaching him a similar system he’s walking into in Minnesota. I have him ranked 53
21% Addison for me. My most drafted player
@@Flockfantasy me as well, nobody else north of 24%
I like drafting Pittman for the stack with Richardson, because hes the big guy who can win in the redzone in Indy so there is a very high TD ceiling there. Unpaired I will never take him, but the ADPs line Pittman and Richardson up very nicely, so i have ~10% Pittman and Richardson for that reason
Sam darnold. Yea I’m good on that
Think McConkly has the most upside has a top quarterback. No other wide receivers really around him. Should be the number one peppered all year long
"McConkly"💀 but yes, I'm all over him.
Lol Addison over Rome yeah right
💯
How do I find activ Draftleagues?
I don’t understand
You’re up on bestball right?
@@swoop4360 no I talk about redraft. I'm from Germany and cannot play Underdog
@@therealyannick1058
You can do DraftKings tho Right?
They got bestball
@@therealyannick1058
Oh I guess not
They changed it…
That sux bro….
Good luck 👍
U convinced me thanks for putting the video. Addison is being drafted at his floor ur right. Im in on addison at this price thanks mason!
My most drafted player currently
Last year I thought I was playing 8D chess. Drafted Alec Pierce late thinking that he might benefit the most from Richardson's deep ball. 🥴
Good logic. They just both suck
lol, asked about Addison on tonights live stream before watching this video. my bad homie
I think Jamo is gonna have an impressive year
I'll take him in bestball
Arron Jones’s will steal a lot of volume also, he’s a veteran running back and while he is aging, he does catch the ball. He’s better then Alexander Mattison but he’s gunna steal volume just because he’s a veteran and there gunna use him since he’s only signed for one year. I project Addison only averaging about 12-13 points per game(average for 17 game season).
If Jones can stay healthy. I predict Chandler gets the majority work load in this backfield, injury or not, he’s simply the better back. I’m avoiding Jones unless he falls 1.5 rnds or more. But Chandler is the guy imo.
Now his ADP will be go from 39 to 29 😅
I won’t draft Addison over Rome. But I really think Rome is going to be great this season. I think one of the other wr’s are going to get hurt and it’s going to be the Rome show in Chicago by seasons end! He’s phenomenal! Addison will be good too, I just think Rome is on another level and also will have the better QB play. But that’s just my opinion! Rome is actually getting slept on!! Also, Justin Jefferson is going to DEMAND most of the targets cuz he wants to be “the best wr in the league” and Lamb and Hill both crushed last year!
Am I crazy or did you keep saying Pittman has never averaged 12 fppg with the graphic showing 15 fppg last year
Heard
Addison kinda reminds me of Dotson
Love you
❤️❤️👊🏻
12 team st 10 SF no TEP
qb Burrow ARich Carr Winston
Rb etienne mixon Henry zeke
Wr AJB Metcalf cooper mclaurin shaheed
Te Andrews Engram
I have 2.13 3.06 4.06 and 4.12 this year
2025 1st 2 2nds 2 3rds 4th
2026 1st 2 3rd 2 4ths
rookie draft is this Friday
Should I make any moves this year? Should I move dk for a first in 2024 draft and try to grab a younger wr? Who should I grab at my picks and 2.13 is loser bracket prize.
How do we feel about Downs and Pittman if Joe flacco ends up starting half of the season?
🚀🚀🚀
My problem with addison is he isn't the best reciever in an offense that is NOT going to be good. Sam darnold will be starting and the only reciever he will be giving any volume to is Jefferson. If Mccarthy gets put in there that means the offense will become run heavy and we'll be lucky if Jefferson is producing anywhere near 20ppg let alone addison be producing anywhere near 15ppg. That's why I'm staying away from this offense lol. I'd rather bet on Caleb Williams actually being a good bears qb(which has absolutely never happened before if you look at the bears qb history)
Yes Sir!!!!!
❤️❤️
NKeal Harry szn inbound
Diontae Johnson will be a top 15 wr
Smashing his current adp
Guess we're yoyo-ing back to the Pittman hate again
Mario Williams was not drafted btw he transferred to Tulane
Brother you gotta do something besides spamming that rotoviz screener. What is the median outcome for WR2s on offenses lead by a rookie QB? Thats the real situation Addison is in. I understand at WR39 addison might beat that, especially with his speed and ability to take it to the house. In best ball that might ve useful, but in redraft there is essentially no shot addison will be a reliable play unless JJ gets injured.
Yea I was thinking the same thing. All those guys on the screener were WR1s in their offenses. Addison is playing behind arguably the best receiver in the NFL. He’s got zero chance to become the 1 outside of a JJ injury
@@EndlessFootball he's got 1 on 1 with no help.. cookies
Nope
Flowers I think is overrated. I actually think Bateman is going to have a major bounce back season as he is up for a new contract (we know how that works) and showed real promise earlier in his career. I think he gets back on track this season especially with no obj taking his targets away.
Mr flock I will bet u any amount of money to you jordan Addison will not outperform this season as wr39
Josh Palmer and Mooney????
no good WR in round 7??? how deep is the league😮💨
Proud to say Jordan Addison is also my most drafted WR at 42% across 45 teams. Great content as always Mason!
We'll see if youre still proud halfway theough the season
@@jakenewbury7528 thank you for the constructive feedback Jake!
Addison is super overvalued this year
Agree to disagree
As a fellow Jordan Addison highest drafted player this video makes me mad! Lol him and Kincaid baby 24%
i just drafted a Eliminator team with you bro. im tothecrib
Probably my 2nd eliminator this year, don't know if I should have gone with the 3rd TE there.
@@Flockfantasy i agree when you have Laporta. ive done 10 so far. its a nice change of pace strategy wise.
That title sucked me right tf in lol quality marketing
I get the case for Rome being a little rich, but I'm not sold on Addison producing with Darnold or McCarthy.
Addisons adp is a bit high. I took my first share 99th pick on dk million. Thats where ill take him.
Passsssssssssssss
Rather have Rice than both of them. I will have zero Odunze at his price. Rookie QB and two target hogs in front of him. I'm getting JSN vibes. Obviously everyone keeps saying he is better. Okay fine. But his QB will likely be worse. Not a fan of Flowers or Pittman at their price. They have running QBs. Hard way to make a living for a WR.
I’m not picking Addison over Rome because I haven’t seen it yet. That’s not how you win big money. I get it though, get some exposure on Addison. But I doubt he’ll do better than Rome.
Understandable
"I doubt he'll do better than Rome". Great analysis. Certainly swayed me
Rookie QB and JJ?? Nah
You lost me at Pittman in round 5-6. On ESPN, which im assuming the majority of casual fantasy players use, is currently a 3rd round pick. Alot of the ADP info you use is useless for anyone who doesnt use Underdog. Why are their values so far off?
Pittman is going round 3? What are you talking about?
I don't agree with it but Pittman is listed that high on several rankings for 2024.
@@Flockfantasyyour numbers are off on sleeper he is going late 3rd and early 4th in my drafts
Avery he literally said in the video "last year I drafted a lot of Pittman, he was a round 7 pick or 6 pick." He wasn't saying Pittmans ADP this year is 5th or 6th round. Also get off of ESPN and Yahoo and move your league to Sleeper.
I didn’t believe it, but Pittman actually has an ADP of 27 on ESPN currently. That’s insane.
I can't stand for this kirk cousins slander!!
500 yards for Curtis Samuel sounds low lmao. Literally wr 1 for Josh Allen
Nope Colman