I’ll skip making a joke given the serious nature of the example, but I’ll thank you again for such a great video series. And I’d also like to say to anyone scrolling through the comments, that knowing this information and how to use the logic can help you and your loved ones make more informed decisions in case you (or they) find yourself in this truly unfortunate situation.
Great video! I'd just want to point something out, there is a different way of thinking about this that I personally find easier: P(A!B) = P(A und B)/P(B) ; the probability of A occurring, given the occurrence of B is the probability that both occur divided by the sum of probabilities of B occurring. Have a great day!
That is definitely the form of Bayes’ rule that I use much more often! In different contexts though, I think using the form that William presented would make more sense. For instance, in the cancer screening, it might be more difficult to determine or estimate the chances of both having cancer and getting a positive test result right off the bat. Rather, that value can be calculated from the sensitivity (probability of a positive result if someone does have cancer) and specificity (probability of negative result if someone doesn’t have cancer) of the test, which would probably be provided as background information from the makers or marketers of the test.
Are any of these most recent lectures (and ideally coming ones) available in print/text? I got your Game Theory 101 book from Amazon, but you've obviously started more lectures that don't appear to be covered in it.
Nope, there isn't any text for the second half of the course. I've thought about writing it, but there just isn't a large enough market to justify the time expense for me.
Your video was really helpful in understanding the bayes rule. But you could definitely used better example.. An example of "you having cancer" sucks..
I was't just gonna say this. It's very saddening for students that are just trying to focus on studying and then come across such an example and thinking back on losing lost ones.
Yeah I think it might have been better/less morbid to use screening for another less serious/easily curable condition. Though to be fair, screening for serious conditions like cancer is one of the biggest and most important applications of this type of reasoning. I also think that if more people understand the logic, it can help them (and their loved ones) make more informed decisions.
It is just an example, and a really common one to illustrate Bayes Rule. You guys couldn't go Med. School then I guess. Most examples there are bad haha
Your graph really helps me understand the Bayes' rule! Thank you so much!
I’ll skip making a joke given the serious nature of the example, but I’ll thank you again for such a great video series. And I’d also like to say to anyone scrolling through the comments, that knowing this information and how to use the logic can help you and your loved ones make more informed decisions in case you (or they) find yourself in this truly unfortunate situation.
Great video! I'd just want to point something out, there is a different way of thinking about this that I personally find easier: P(A!B) = P(A und B)/P(B) ; the probability of A occurring, given the occurrence of B is the probability that both occur divided by the sum of probabilities of B occurring. Have a great day!
That is definitely the form of Bayes’ rule that I use much more often! In different contexts though, I think using the form that William presented would make more sense. For instance, in the cancer screening, it might be more difficult to determine or estimate the chances of both having cancer and getting a positive test result right off the bat. Rather, that value can be calculated from the sensitivity (probability of a positive result if someone does have cancer) and specificity (probability of negative result if someone doesn’t have cancer) of the test, which would probably be provided as background information from the makers or marketers of the test.
Are any of these most recent lectures (and ideally coming ones) available in print/text? I got your Game Theory 101 book from Amazon, but you've obviously started more lectures that don't appear to be covered in it.
Nope, there isn't any text for the second half of the course. I've thought about writing it, but there just isn't a large enough market to justify the time expense for me.
may i ask where is the next lecture continuing from this?
Not yet produced. Will probably pick back up on it during the summer.
how on EARTh did you arrive at the conclusion 3/23 = 13%
i Know I am getting 6/10, even on calculator
Your video was really helpful in understanding the bayes rule. But you could definitely used better example.. An example of "you having cancer" sucks..
I was't just gonna say this. It's very saddening for students that are just trying to focus on studying and then come across such an example and thinking back on losing lost ones.
Yeah I think it might have been better/less morbid to use screening for another less serious/easily curable condition. Though to be fair, screening for serious conditions like cancer is one of the biggest and most important applications of this type of reasoning. I also think that if more people understand the logic, it can help them (and their loved ones) make more informed decisions.
You could pick happier example, hearing "you have x% chances of having cancer" for 13 min is not fun
Is "you have x% chance of NOT having cancer" any better?
William Spaniel only if x =100
i agree, this is bad example chosen
It is just an example, and a really common one to illustrate Bayes Rule. You guys couldn't go Med. School then I guess. Most examples there are bad haha
I was thinking about that through the whole video
Your videos are cool! But, please, choose more ''ecological'' examples. Or, at least, saying that John has a cancer...