Bayes Theorem and some of the mysteries it has solved
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
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Hope you guys enjoy! Few things I want to mention.
1) There was A LOT of information with regards to each of these stories and I obviously couldn't include it all, so just note none of this paints the full picture in terms of all the analysis that these people did.
2) Because of that first bullet point, I included sources and references to every story in the description for those who want more information. (I got a lot of info from one book which I linked at the top of the references).
3) Yes I know the video is really about how mysteries were solved with Bayes' theorem.
Hi, Mr. Stargensky :)
Hi Mr Huguenin
@MajorPrep bro even u have inspired me to do aerospace engineer,but the seats here in India are limited (for good colleges). You have told me the similarities between mechanical and aerospace and other fields and after watching 20-30 of your vids i finally know what to do in life.thanks for showing me a way👌. Hope u be successful in life.
The French submarine minerve has been found in 2019
It's fascinating to realize that our brain does this rechecking thing (updating the probability instead of making it zero) automatically and we recheck for our lost keys.
Lol XD
What?
@@elistidham8494you have a tendency to re-try things despite them having already failed
In other areas of life with added layers of biases, we sometimes don't even care to look for the "key" elsewhere at all! To double down on our failures indefinitely for no good reason is meta
'How to find lost objects with Bayesian Statistics' -- better title.
too advanced for this audience
@@Wanderlust1972 more so that he needs views
Identifying an uncertain author is not a "lost object."
"How to get as lucky as possible, using science"
I hate titles starting with 'How'.
damn, I haven't been this interested in science and math for a long time even though *this* is technically my field, great work!
The Minerve has now been found, after around 3 months since you released the video!
SAROPS including the first case does not assume that the person lost overboard remains stationary, but moves with the currents and also by a portion of the wind or its leeway factor. SAROPS also doesn’t work at the grid level, but updates the probabilities for each particle. See my illustration at 1:25 of this video.
I'm just getting into mathematics for fun, and it makes me laugh when people say things like, "the foundation to this is obviously Baye's Theory".
Then what is actually the foundation of this? I am asking for my learning purpose
I’m starting to respect statistics instead of hating them
Thanks
Statistics shouldn't be used as a tool of manipulation to drive ideology. When used properly lives can be saved. With great power to the number comes great responsibility for probability.
Mike Law dude what
@@Mike1LawlessSpidey math
AI engineers are statisticians too
The wreckage of the French submarine Minerve has finally been found about 28 miles off the southern coast of France, near the port of Toulon. July 2019
Pog
wow
Was found 3 months after this video release. Coincidence?
Students: why am I even learning this I'm never gonna need it in real situations
Teacher:
Students: "Why am I even learning this? I'm never gonna need it in real situations when flipping burgers at the Dairy Queen."
Teacher: "Given they've wanted a burger, what is the probability they also want fries?"
If teachers actually used real world examples, instead of crazy and stupid word problems that no one will ever care about, then students wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the importance of all of these various mathematical equations.
@@KruhlSentru exactly
Never gonna use this in real life but it’s super interesting. If my teacher showed it to my I would be less likely to pay attention tho or be into it. But because it was my choice to watch the video I find it more intriguing. If that makes sense
Has someone done a simulation where you compare the best known algorithm with one based on naive intuition, and see how much the success rate improves from using Bayes etc?
As an EE student this channel is one of the best channels i use to motivate me to study harder
Me, taking AP Calc, as well as planning on taking AP stats next year: “let me watch a bunch of fun math videos for hours on end”
*the federalist papers*
Me also taking APUSH: no.. please no
Next person who forget about Henryk Zygalski, Jerzy Różycki and Marian Rejewski and their huge contribution to unraweling enigma's code. :'(
Yep :(
Great examples of real life applications of some mathematical statistics mechanics. Very insightful!
Yes I believe if you’re going into a STEM career then math class would teach you many real life applications because the person working to find the lost things are mathematicians. Me, personally will never be able to use this. Maybe in a vague way but not with big numbers,.. well maybe with google and a calculator I could. Ha. Take that math teacher. Regardless if I’ll ever actually use this theory down the road I still find it very intriguing
From 0:00-2:02, I thought the whole thing was amateur and the video was a clickbait. At 2:03 and on, it just escalated too quickly. lol
Yeah. Some things just flew over my head when I watched this. I might watch this again in the future just to better understand the math behind this stuff.
It was interesting to see how Bayes theorem applies in a lot of cases. I've used it myself to help clean up distorted electronic signals by suggesting corrections until the CRCs suddenly test true. BTW Turing is closer than you think. He worked with MV Wilkes after the war, and in the 70s I was one of Wilkes last students before he retired.
Now as you are making videos on probability and statistics next in line should be data science.
That actually is something I've been wanting to get.
Use of stats in data science
If 80% of the things I say are true, including this statement, how many percent of the things I say are true?
wat
technically it's 17.6 words including the numbers~
however you could be lying so, 0~
64 percent. 20 percent lies times 80 percent truth is 16 percent. 80 percent truth minus 16 percent lies (20 percent of 80 percent) is 64 percent. Commence feedback loop..
When you say “Bayesian” it sounds like “Beijing” 😂😂😂
ew who pronounces Bei"ch"ing like Bayesian
That B in Beijing is more like P of English
RIP for those 33 guys who disliked this video.
Imagine being a hypochondric mathematician. constantly calculating the probability that you have some rare disease based on your symptoms.
yes. I described myself
Chronic hypochondrism. 100%. Get well! :)
@@МалкопийТролян thank yoou
Suddenly, John's search reminded me of: schrödinger's cat
It still makes me sad how the work of Polish mathematicians is overlooked in terms of breaking the enigma code
Quick! To the Numberphile!
Bletchley Park emphatically does *not* neglect them ! 😊
You deserve at least a million subscribers. Keep it up brother.
One of these mysteries is my physics assignment
Nice Video! Could u please do a video on Computational Mathematics?
Sadly none of these could help with the Malaysia Airlines flight #370 case in 2014 (which was I think the most expensive search and rescue mission).
That's cuz that's under water
I have news for you. While you were looking out to the Indian Ocean for #370 the real event was that Ukrainian rebels backed by the CIA shot down a civilian airliner. The resulting news blitz would have embarassed the US. So the CIA created a news diversionary tactic.
@@SoulDelSolAir France 447 was also under water, but with MH370, the area where the plane could have gone down is so huge
2 years after this in 1968.. ???
Two years after 2009 is 2011, and not 1968.
Lol totally right. At first I had the ‘missing nuclear bomb’ story before the submarine one. I flipped some things around but forgot to edit that part of the script.
it's a Bayesian thing, probably. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Please research the enigma story correctly. Touring just some money and gov interest into work of 3 Polish matematicians who were working on solving enigma problem from day 1 (as encrypted messages has been noticed being transmitted over radio, which happened before even ww2 started. Enigma was at 1st invented as protection device for traders communication, and even available commercialy. Polish intelligence bought one on trade show in germany, and immediately started working on decypher methods. As the war started, Polish intelligence kept feeding news and trying to get new machines, and scientists kept working on evolving and changing algorythms. Later, they continued they work on exile (in Great Britain), but there was not much interest put on their efforts, despite their attempts to draw attention of GB military and intelligence. The breakthrough came after german submarine was captured with working enigma on board, and jus then - with DDay being still in planning phase, Touring was assigned to take control over the Polish matematician team. His real input was connections what led to funding, what led to build of longely requested and awaited machine able to solve calculations much faster than team of humans could. So basicaly Touring brought the money. It was widely known, that he struggled with his complexes, and will of power as he noted immediately that his education kept him far beyond the progress that was already made by Polish Matematicians.
Only thing they needed was either more people or a computer to decipher the day code faster.
And those mathematicians were named: Marian Rejewski, Henryk Zygalski and Jerzy Różycki. They cracked the code in January 1933 (well first version of it)
@@ArchitheFA yes!
Not exactly the code, rather the method and approach. Algorithm was changing a lot during following years and improvements had to be introduced in decipher process.
Fact is - for everyone but those three, this was impossible task, and none else saw the solution.
This channel always changes my perspective towards mathematics and makes my interest in it
you always put out the most fascinating uses of maths
Hi, could you do a video comparing engineering degrees in USA universities compared to UK universities?
Here's a real mystery: John has 7 apples and gives 2 to Suzie. How many apples does John have left?
7
Still 7. Actually 9 if u blur out the discrete features of apple
@@uzairaezad7630do you mind explaining how?
Man I loved these probability topics in my school classes.
Its really cool to know all the mathematics behind it, seeing how adults hype these mathematics so much later on in life lol.
Never clicked that fast!!
So some one found 100 million and don't give a few million back to his investors? Stupid or greedy?
Got to say, math is awesome
You should talk about Financial Engineering. This field is related to data science, machine learning, stochastic procceses and econometrics.
That probability tree you just showed is AWESOME!!!! I haven't got to Prob and Stats yet, and have only really messed around with online lectures, but I haven't seen anyone visually organize probability like that before. Thank you for showing me something new!
Now, I'm gonna think of Bayes theorem everytime that line in non-stop comes up.
Good balance of educational and entertainment elements
I imagine that one could probably tweak this method of assessing the real author of a text in order to create an accurate forgery as well. To edit the forgery drafts until it gives the acceptable probability.
Nowadays we would use a neural network for this. There are too many criteria to immitate to create a perfect forgery, some of those criteria cannot be realized by human minds, but AI's may notice them.
So they just figured out where he would be (behind ship) and swept it. That's kinda common sense or am i missing something?
According to movie "A beautiful mind "and "the immitation game " discoveries come from bars.. both the protagonist got their theories figured out in the bar cause of women
Prab Crist behind every successful man there is lust & love's labour is never lost!
The gold search hooked me, but it had sad ending
Except Isaac Newton.
I recommend reading Murray's Gell Mann "quark and Jaguar" book. Seems like lot of important problems during Manhattan project we solved during long night bar sessions. :-)
tdegler Heisenberg had a sad ending during that time Manhattan's German counterpart, after WW2 he was in house arrest in Britain.
What about that one guy in WWI that calculated the exact location of enemy fire across the trenches by triangulating the seismic rumble of mortar fire using pen and paper mathematics and an elaborate setup of makeshift seismometers?
Or how statistics can be interpreted wrong.
Like how once hard helmets were introduced in ww1. Brain injuries increased. Because before helmets they would result in death instead of injuries.
But those stats could have been used wrong by people to support NOT using helmets
you makes math topics so fascinating and fun i relize how important statistics and probability is
Air France 447 crashed because of use of sidesticks to control the plane. A co-pilot held the plane in a stall and because of the sidesticks, none of the other pilots on the flight deck could see (it was at night) what he was doing. If the plane had been controlled by a normal yoke the accident could never have happened. This is why I will never fly on an Airbus.
Sir, do you know what book to study this kind of statistics and probability??
Bryan Goh or online course as well
Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R and BUGS
You can access his site too
Bayesian Data Analysis by Gelman
Look up anything on Bayesian statistics
If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??
If from basic to advanced statistics and probabilty??
So, how was Alan Turing rewarded for saving countless Allied lives and helping to shorten the war.
1. Lifetime tenured position at the university of his choice? NO!
2. Large financial reward sufficient for him to retire for life? NO!
3. Declared a national hero and given a medal and a sinecure position? NO!
He was persecuted for his homosexuality, chemically castrated, and driven to suicide. That was how the UK said "Thanks".
2:53 Why can't they just use a freaking ampersand? Why use an upside-down 'U'?
Goddamnit, math nerds...
That there existed a significant probability of a human operator who would consistently fail to adhere to the proper use of Enigma I guess could be tied to math. Fortunately, such a weak link was found and exploited. Had all usage adhered to protocol (or something close to ideal usage) things likely would have turned out substantially different.
I LOVE these statistics videos please keep making them ♥
This vid was incredibly well done! Bayesian statistics ftw 💪💪
I've heard the claim that Turing ended WWII years early before, but I reject it. VE day was only a few months before the the bombing of Hiroshima. Assuming the Manhattan project would not have been significantly delayed, the ware would inevitably have ended by the end of 1945 thanks to Oppenheimer.
Learning bayesian statistics is on my goal list now, thanks.
Woah I just found your channel and wow am I amazed, looking forward to your uploads..
i think you must use maths to find out when you gonna get 1 mill sub.. i think it will be cool idea if it becomes true
I have a probability final tomorrow and forgot about Baye's theorem. Thanks!
Bayes'*
I hope the statisticians in the hamilton/madison case extracted the word frequency from "training data" and tested it on "testing data" or in other words - papers that their word frequency wasn't part of the model training process. If not, the testing process could be flawed and prone to "overfitting".
Excellent overview of some special applications of Bayes Theorem and Bayesian methods. Many thanks for the links to relevant sources.
Govt actually lost a Hydrogen bomb seriously
They have lost a lot of things
Applied statistics is a good proof that torture is a useless method of interrogation. :)
65km, 19h..... hmm.... gotta move at about 3.25km/h or about 0.9m/s yeah that ain’t going to work. I can peak at about 1.3m/s for about 200m steady but my average is closer to 0.8-0.7m/s endurance..... was wondering if it woulda been possible to make it home....
MH370 comes to mind
just excellent! This is very interesting! The only edit is: you shifted from 2009 Air France to submarines by saying "2 years after this in 1968" ... time travel lol. But kudos to this video!
How do you calculate the initial probabilities to put into the formula tho
Statistics is the study of effects on our most intuitive outcome. The most logical manner of finding a missing person at sea is to assume they’ve perished (probably) then calculate the likely way to save them: run a rescue, improve grid survivability, or another means! People would realize the helicopter is not the likeliest solution! Use a ship that has sea-penetrating radar, and sees the ocean surface from below: 99% likelihood of being found dead/alive!
Oh so the story of that Brazil-Fance flight ended up like that. I saw a vid but I didn't watch called it a "miracle", yeah, "miracle"...
"To anyone who doesn't see the use in stats, it made this guy a millionaire" *refers back to 1:1.000.000 scenario*
Lol very interesting video!
Doing a physics course has made me realise statistics is the most fundamental science...
Computational Biology please sir :D
Does the equation take into account the possibility that he might have been EATEN BY A SHARK???
What formula do you recommend using, if I wanted to solve the mystery of the missing mysteries in this video?
Sigh... I would honestly give my left arm (or leg) to be good at math. As it stands, this video may as well be in Arabic or Mandarin. What I understood of this video was so interesting, tho.
He was found not by theorem but by luck. If theorem works flight MH373 was not be lost till 5 yrs.
i learned this in ap statistics and its actually insane to me that you can use this to save people’s lives
Hhii
I’m assuming this theorem is now at work helping the search for the Titanic wreck submersible.
Would you do a video on mathematical economics?
"it was discovered in 1988, just a few years before I was born".
Ouch
A using anecdotes to show statistics works makes sense,
I watch your videos whenever I feel defeated by math. Thanks for the awesome content!
From where do you learn this kind of mathematics used in daily life, from which resources, i would love to learn from the sources you learn from, would you mind sharing some sources?
Statistics
Chances
And most importantly:Logic
Universities are there for you
Look in the description! Put the book I got a lot of this information from.
I LOVE mathematics until I actually have to solve problems with it
same :D
6:02 Wdym "one of" the final sweeps
Why would you continue searching
im about to start my college in cse with speacialisation in data science and probability, statistics and linear algebra r crucial parts of the course so thanx for this video
13:28 Excellent movie! Would highly recommend even if you're not into math
JOHN JAY GOT SICK AFTER WRITING 5 JAMES MADISON WROTE 29 HAMILTON WROTE THE OTHER 51
Can you talk about quantum chemistry
You couldn't find the probability chart of the Palomares bomb because it never existed to begin with. According to Spanish sources, American searchers first flat out ignored the Spanish fisherman (later nicknamed "Paco el de la bomba", "Bomb Paco") for months, until he became so insistent, telling everyone in town and the local media that he had actually seen the bomb fall, that the searchers tried looking in that place just to shut the Spaniards up - then found the bomb straightaway and claimed that had always been their intention from the start to save face. (Which also was "corroborated" by the Spaniard government in a PR attempt to claim they had been cooperating from the start). Moral of the story, past the amusing anecdote, being *if you are using Bayes, be **_damn sure_** you are actually using those conditional probabilities instead of ignoring them* (or else you won't be _actually_ using Bayes).
The dislikes must be from Malaysia Airlines 370.
13:30 for those who want more information the mathematicians were Henryk Zygalski, Jerzy Różycki, and Marian Rejewski.
9:02 the Minerve submarine was found a few months after this video was released.
So why couldn't Boeing flight 767 be found?
Can you do Engineering Physics video?
"Two years after Air France crash on June 1st 2009 in 1968? Four submarines went missing???"
Tony Collins what?
@@rayanaltowayan9558
ruclips.net/video/82q3uYw6MuY/видео.html
Listen to the next few lines of audio?
quality content 😍
My great grandfather helped decode the enigma machine in WWII
12:47 well of course it did, that’s the Texas sharpshooter effect