"It's the Fed's worst nightmare". 10% unemployment and 10% inflation.
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- Опубликовано: 20 сен 2024
- Stagflation is when the economy experiences both high inflation and high unemployment. The last time America's economy experience this was back in the 1970s. Many are now believing - including JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon - that stagflation could be returning in 2024 and 2025.
This outcome would be the Federal Reserve's and Jerome Powell's worst nightmare. Because it would mean high inflation and unemployment. Meaning that they could not necessarily low interest rates to combat the inevitable recession that would come with stagflation.
Back in the 1970s the US reached a peak inflation rate of 14% and unemployment rate of nearly 11%. Things got so bad that the federal reserve had to hike interest and mortgage rate all the way to 18% by the early 1980s to combat this inflation.
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Some stats from the last period of stagflation in the 1970s:
-peak 14% inflation rate
-peak 11% unemployment rate
-stock market loses 50% of its real value
-housing market barely appreciates in real terms
-18% mortgage rates by early 1980s
Not a guarantee that we will see this repeat. But more and more warning signs are popping up. Track the Misery Index to get a real sense of how much Americans are suffering: fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=IenV
If we see a repeat of the 70s, real estate prices are NOT going to crash! Meaning you have been misleading hundred of thousands of people
Realistically look for an exponential historical increase in the homeless population, with complete governmental disinterest, providing nothing for those suffering!
@@Sonofawildanimal4241 A missing stat from his list is how much wages increased during that time as well. Wages raised significantly which supported inflation. If we see wages skyrocket again then home values won't go down, but if wages don't skyrocket then it all will come down to a sustainable level.
so basically no housing crash. housing did not crash during the 70s and 80s it INCREASED! lolz.
@@ml9557 so did wages. So at least we're all going to be getting fat raises soon!
I’m so glad I didn’t really make any big mistakes when I started my investment journey last year. So far I’ve just been sticking small amounts of money into companies I’m sure will continue to exist for the next five years and if the stocks do well, I hold on. If not, I reinvest the bad ones into the good ones so I can get higher gains. I gained about $9.5k from putting in $4k into NVIDIA earlier this year so that was pretty nice.
The 1% of rich people think of how to invest their money to increase their wealth during the recession. While 99% of struggling hard-luck people think of how to survive without food and daily necessities in the recession and the coming hyperinflation.
True, A lot of folks downplay the role of professionals until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple of summers back after my lengthy financial setback, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of due diligence who helped a lot to grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation to over half a million dollars.
How can I get to reach out to your financial advisor?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've been stuck with Carol Vivian Constable for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.
I just googled her name and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a call.
The only American who won't acknowledge this Administration's failed economic policies is Joe Biden. "Shrink-flation' is the least of our worries compared to rising rents and stagnant wages, but it is an undeniable indicator of how bad our inflation has gotten. I have $100k that i like to invest in a non-retirement account, any advice on that?
I would avoid index funds, mutual funds, and specific stocks for the time being. Right now, the best option is a fixed income of five percent. Put money aside for the times when the market really starts to bounce back.
45% of Americans do not invest in the stock market because of lack of guidance. Every year you don't invest, you are falling behind. I’m hitting numbers in the stock market I used to dream of… Going from $50k to $600k in my portfolio is surreal all thanks to insights from my financial advisor.
Your adviser must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same adviser and how I can get in touch with them?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thanks for sharing, I just liquidated some of my funds to invest in the stock market, I will need every help I can get.
More and more people might face a tough time in retirement. Low-paying jobs, inflation, and high rents make it hard to save. Now, middle-class Americans find it tough to own a home too, leaving them without a place to retire.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
The increasing prices have impacted my plan to retire at 62, work part-time, and save for the future. I'm concerned about whether those who navigated the 2008 financial crisis had an easier time than I am currently experiencing. The combination of stock market volatility and a decrease in income is causing anxiety about whether I'll have sufficient funds for retirement.
'Amber Dawn Brummit' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
this is all new to me, where do I find a fiduciary, can you recommend any?
'Amber Dawn Brummit' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 2years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same but it seems you’ve got it all worked out with the firm you work with so i surely wouldn’t mind a recommendation.
I definitely share your sentiment about these firms. Finding financial advisors like Marisa Breton Dollard who can assist you shape your portfolio would be a very creative option. There will be difficult times ahead, and prudent personal money management will be essential to navigating them.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Marisa Breton Dollard up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. God's blessings on you.
Great Video. I'm a 52-year-old QA Specialist at Confluera, with an annual income of $150,000. Although I do have a retirement account, I'm keen on exploring short-term investment opportunities as I prepare to shift to part-time work in the near future. What would be the most suitable strategy to achieve my goals?
Great Video. I'm a 52-year-old QA Specialist at Confluera, with an annual income of $150,000. Although I do have a retirement account, I'm keen on exploring short-term investment opportunities as I prepare to shift to part-time work in the near future. What would be the most suitable strategy to achieve my goals?
It's crucial to have a well-thought-out strategy and not make impulsive moves based on short-term market fluctuations. Patience and a long-term perspective are key. You should consider a market expert to guide you.
True, some folks employ hedging strategies or devote a portion of their portfolio to defensive assets that perform well during market downturns and such pointers are provided by engaging the services of market experts just like i did in 2019, amid rona-outbreak, and as of today, i can boost of a 45% enhancement on my $1m portfolio after acquiring assets recommended by my advisor.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors I can connect with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Actually, Sharon Ann Meny is a lady.I chose to contact her after first seeing her on a CNBC news piece on smart advisors. The wisest choice I took to survive in 2020.
I'm pleased with the advisor's prompt and knowledgeable assistance. Their professionalism instills confidence. Looking forward to further discussions.
Our economy is struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
With my demanding job, I lack time for investment analysis. For seven years, a fiduciary has managed my portfolio, adapting to market conditions, enabling successful navigation and informed decisions. Consider a similar approach.
This is definitely considerable! Do you think you could suggest any professionals or advisors I can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
Just research the name Desiree Ruth Hoffman. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
In light of the ongoing global economic crisis, it is crucial for everyone to prioritize investing in diverse sources of income that are not reliant on the government. This includes exploring opportunities in stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the challenging economic situation, it remains a favorable time to consider these investments.
The pathway to substantial returns doesn't solely rely on stocks with significant movements. Instead, it revolves around effectively managing risk relative to reward. By appropriately sizing your positions and capitalizing on your advantage repeatedly, you can progressively work towards achieving your financial goals. This principle applies across various investment approaches, whether it be long-term investing or day trading.
Even with the right strategies and appropriate assets, investment returns can differ among investors. Recognizing the vital role of experience in investment success is crucial. Personally, I understood this significance and sought guidance from a market analyst, significantly growing my account to nearly a million. Strategically withdrawing profits just before the market correction, I'm now seizing buying opportunities once again.
@@ThomasChai05Impressive can you share more info?
My CFA “Gertrude Margaret Quinto” a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
I recognize the hardships that come with economic struggles like unemployment, job loss, inflation, housing market instability, political uncertainties, and the global impact of conflicts and wars. Making ends meet during such times can be incredibly challenging. To navigate this difficult period, considering alternative job prospects, enhancing skills through online courses, and expanding your network can heighten the chances of securing employment. Moreover, prudent budgeting, exploring available financial aid programs, and seeking assistance from community organizations can offer some relief. How are you currently tackling these challenges? Have you implemented any specific strategies to cope?
In my opinion, now is not the moment to rely on hearsay. Every individual, regardless of their level of experience as an investor OR in a financial market, requires guidance at some stage.
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
this is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I appreciate this. After curiously searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Vivian Carol Gioia is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I find this informative, curiously explored Vivian Carol Gioia on the web, spotted her consulting page, and was able to schedule a call session with her, she shows quite a great deal of expertise from her resume.. very much appreciated
The smallest silver lining is HYS and your assets will go up if we have high inflation long term, because that is what lost of purchasing power is. I am tempted to go a bit wonky and get precious metals or other assets since equities and stocks usually do ass if the economy is messed up since cost of business is high and no one has money outside of a few sectors.
There's a prediction of a prolonged recession lasting some years, with the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates due to surging inflation. Inflation and now stagflation is causing widespread problems globally, including food shortages, scarcities in fuel, and considerable spikes in housing prices, potentially leading to a financial market crash. This downturn could have significant and lasting effects. With inflation running at about 10%, the primary concern revolves around how to maximize savings and retirement funds, which have been stagnant around $300,000, yielding minimal gains for an extended period.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
Well, there are a few out there who know what they are doing. I tried a few in the past years, but I’ve been with 'MICHELE KATHERINE SINGH' for the last five years or so, and her returns have been pretty much amazing.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
I was part of the recent layoffs at twitter and this bites hard. I am grateful that I kept some savings about; $600k and I am looking for ways to invest this into the stock market to generate good dividends to supplement for my monthly expenses.
Thats when you hire someone to manage your money. You need a financial-advis0r straight up! Even while $600k might seem like much, one bad decision might seriously deplete it.
A good number of people discredit the effectiveness of financial advisors in exploring new markets, but over the past 10years I’ve had a financial advisor consistently restructure and diversify my portfolio/expenses and I’ve made over $3million in gains… might not be a lot but i'm financially secure.
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
if inflation and unemployment was measured today the same way they were measured in the 70's our misery index would be much higher than it was in the 70's
if they used the same statistic tracking.....
they would get the second American Revolutionary War
shadow stats used 1970 inflation tracking method and it is showing inflation being 8% for 2024 and 2023, and over 14% in 2022.
if you take that number the rising cost acutally make sense. Brandon 4 years have total real inflation of about 41%.
@@sunso1991 factor in shadowstats unemployment rate and the misery index is truly tipping into 2nd civil war territory. our corrupt leaders are pushing it over the edge.
The continued economic data manipulations by the government prevents an honest evaluation of the economic future! The ongoing cooking of the books is intentional, in order to promote the unrealistically positive narrative!
Exactly I lived thru the misery index 70s and it is NOT measured now like it was then. It’s worse now and much worse to come
On another channel they were blaming the Boomers for the overspending & inflation. Uh, we do have elections? It's important who you vote in.
I am a Nurse and have been investing for a few years. I have reached a point where I could benefit from financial advice to improve my $200,000 portfolio for retirement, how do I maximize my ROI?
You didn't provide detailed information about your portfolio makeup. However, I recommend seeking guidance from a financial advisor for a well-informed portfolio restructuring.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a fiduciary financial advisor to guide you, that’s what works for my wife and I. It's been 6 years now and we've grown our portfolio to $1m.
Your advisor seems competent. Could you share how I can reach out to them? I've recently sold some property and i am interested in investing in stocks.
Thank you. I just checked her out on the web browser, She seems really proficient. I'll follow up with an email. Thanks for the lead.
Buy Gold, silver, assets that can’t be built and hold value Like old cars or property. The American dollar is not something to hold on to
I am a truck driver. If you talk to anybody in the trucking industry they will say that we are in a recession
Fewer trips?
Anyone in sales of non essentials also.
restaurant owner here. Sales are basically 07-08 levels adjusted for inflation.
same with my friend that is in residential plumbing for real-estate development.
Same with my mortgage brokers, real estate agents, and loan agents.
Same with ALL OTHER RESTAURANT OWERS IVE TALKED TO.
Only people winning are high level corporate wage workers and government workers.
More businesses closing down in my village.
My neighbor truck semi driver he said same thing his trucks parked in front of his home
@@pokergeniusordonkey6517 super low rates - little money to be made.
I completed graduate school in 1982. Unemployment in California was 12%, inflation was 15% and I had enough money to last me 3 weeks. I applied for jobs all over the country. Fortunately, I did find a job locally within 3 weeks paying $30K. I thought I had hit the jackpot.
Yeah, and back then you could buy a house on $30k. Not the same rodeo.
congrats on your luck. thanks for sharing it with yourself
How much were your student loan payments?
@@keithn4304 Maybe around $300 a month. My rent was $325. My grad school charged $5,500 a year. Now, its about $80,000.
@@SENSEF Yup. My dad bought a house making less than $30K, in California no less. I'm priced out making almost triple.
I lived thru the 70s and you couldn't beg, steal or borrow a job. It was a nightmare and I sense what we're headed for is going to be worse.
I was a kid then and remember the strain on my parents..... we were already poor before it started so nothing changed for us.
What was the social sentiment like during that time? Where people just rolling with the times? Do you remember wages increases to match inflation eventually? It lasted like 10 years but was the real feel for you during the time?
Were real bad times. It felt like things would be bad forever into the future - kind of like today...
I'm not seeing where everyone comes up with inflation numbers like
3%
8%
10%
15%
20%
!!!!!!!
Gas is double then four years ago.
Housing/rent Is double
Interest rates are double
1 gallon of milk is double
Everything is nearly double...
That's 100% increase people. Easy numbers. I promise you they think people are going to be civil and this have a soft landing. No movie can interpret nor prepare for what's about to happen.
I suggest having a relationship with Christ Jesus because even though you may suffer and hurt in this life. You do not have to for eternity...
Back then 1 salary could support of family of 5. So no, it was not that bad. Today people need both parents working and even some parents working a second job to just get by.
Stagflation happens when you prevent economic bubbles from popping. Instead of a quick correction, you extend the pain.
I got laid off in February and lost my 120k/yr job. It's been very hard to find a job since then. I'll be selling my home in July to take the equity out and live off that for awhile.
might want to sell sooner. housing prices are falling fast and are already down at least 10%
I am taking early retirement and living off of savings until my SS/Pension kicks in. DC is going to get almost NOTHING from me for YEARS. Just the way I like it.
Sorry to hear that, hope you can get another job( even at lower pay).
I agree if you have a passport. Start looking at leveraging it. To buy yourself time to up your skillsets.
I did the same in 2021. Still trying to recover
After experimenting with stocks since late 2021, I've shifted to 100% S&P 500. Still regretting not doing so from the start. Now i am Considering a return to individual stocks in 2024, but uncertain about safely investing close to 300k in the market.
Everyone needs a Margin of Safety in their portfolios and just remember, It's time in the market versus timing the market.
De-risk your portfolios, shore up your core holdings, and take some profits while balancing your portfolio allocations. I’d also suggest you go with a managed portfolio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary
How can I reach out to him?
I will leave his info below this comment, but you can gooogle more about him
Why do people keep quoting the unemployment rate as if it means anything? Quite seriously, all it represents is how many people have recently been laid off. It has almost nothing to do with aggregate unemployment.
Exactly
The problem is that over half of all Americans are already living paycheck to paycheck, and can't afford much else. A week of lost income can be enough to set people back years or throw them into debt. Please try to be more understanding.
@@badbichdb Yes, obviously, being unemployed is bad. My point is that the unemployment metric is a terrible way to measure it. Please try to be more understanding.
The U-6 number which includes a lot more people is at least twice the rate of the U-3, which are usually those we are told.
Mark Twain said"There are lies, damn and statistics ".
@therealsolomonmichael Not to mention that table is scuffed and can be easily manipulated. It's an election year, so gaslighting is at its fullest right now.
It's crazy when you remember that cracks are forming in the US economy despite the government spending like we're already in an economic depression. We're in a massive debt bubble except this time, it isn't just confined to the housing sector.
Actually the car business is also coming into a bubble, so it's hitting a lot
Nick’s favorite phrases:
Could be…
May be…
Possibly … be…
Maybe…
Should be…
Potentially be.
he should register to trump party because he says the same shit. it could be, possible, why not? may be.
@TheVimeo or if he moved to the Biden party, he couldn't get a coherent sentence out. PEDO JOE
@@TheVimeoas opposed to the democrats who just straight up lie
“I suspect”
These incompetent fools are going to send us all to the poor house.
Sounds about right
Republicans have been trying to turn the United States into a third world country for years. It's working. Wall street rallies as main street dies. Get the picture? Trickle down economics, Republicans gift to the RICH. Biden 2024. ROE ROE ROE your vote, ROEVEMBER is coming.
They know exactly what they are doing. Don’t be fooled
That's their plan.
And it's not just the Democrats either! Republicans can be equally incompetent as demonstrated by when the 1970s stagflation first took off, the post-Persian Gulf War downturn, 2008, and Trump's muck-up of COVID.
Stagflation is always a result of FED manipulations. Fed should not have cut rate to zero in 2020-21. Worse FED should have hiked rate fast when we open in 2021. In 2023-24 rate should have been hiked to 10-15. Failure over failure over failure!!!
The federal government shouldn't have been running such a massive deficit either and we should be exporting goods. This isn't just a monetary policy failure, it's a multifaceted failure including fiscal policy and trade policy. We export nothing but debt and a ton of our dollars are spent unproductively servicing debt.
Raising the rates when middle class can’t find jobs would be terrible. Unemployment rate is low because people gave up and aren’t counted and people settled for jobs that can’t support necessities.
All by design
Absolutely correct 👍.. crazy interference from The Government to Get votes From The sheepel and stay in power..no real concern about The people . All smoke and mirrors economy... Everything is 50 percent too high.. 😢
@Gus_Magnus We wouldn't be in this mess now of Biden and the dems hadn't cheated him into the WH. The trigger was knee-capping energy production. That started the problem in the 70's too. That time it was OPEC. This time it's Biden and he caused it to be a worldwide problem because now everyone pays more for energy and that filters down into every part of our lives.
My prediction is trump will get in and then they will let everything crash and blame it on him
My prediction is he will get in, it will crash, he will raise tariffs and cut rates and that will pour gas on the flames
100% agree with you but I feel like we just need to let this happen and have trump restart and fix our economy
All of the crutches that have been placed to hold the economy, will probably be removed as he is coming into office
Who is they?
@@aldotorre8802 if you know, you know
3 years of saying things will crash man. I think its over kill now. Show a graph showing how much money you've made in 3 years predicting a crash thats a graph i would like to see
Lol we’re smack dab in the middle of a financial crisis and you guys are still here? Do you realize banks have lots more money than they did during the GFC? How about home sales being at all time lows? Not enough? How about incomes dropping and not keeping up with inflation? Still not enough?!? How about M2 dropping for the 3rd time in history? 😆 hahahahaha dude you guys gotta wake up bc you’re going to get bent so far over you’ll see your own brown eye
I'm in moving and Junk removal. I talk to everyday Americans. The economy is shit right now
We're not eating breakfast like we used to.. food is out of control. Most of us are unhealthy.
We're eating junk food🥴
McDonalds sales are down, people are walking away from unhealthy food.
@@SomeUserNameBlahBlahbc even McDonald’s is too expensive for them now lmaoo
Save your money & your health. Only buy the most nutrient-dense foods: high fat animal foods. I'm never hungry and fixed my health AND my wallet is happy.
@@D4rkBl4demy healthcare payment is for good food😅pays dividends🤣😝😅😛
@@kipincharge2833 bwahah yah I make a point to eat the healthiest possible so I don't need our crumbling healthcare here in Canada. All my friends are falling apart and I'm thriving but they won't quit their processed junk foods and high carbs diets lol
The 1970s was a cake walk compared to these day I know because I was there
It worked positively for me back in '74, unlike 2024 when the price of the same vehicle I purchased is now.......1,268% higher! Same model, same colour, tranny, engine........50 years later! Did wages increase near 1,000-1300%? Go fish!
@@australiasfirstmate1556 Jesus fuck, this comment makes me on the verge of killing myself just thinking about it. :c
Why do people keep referring to 1970s. There is no comparison. Economy policy is different, demographic mix is different, industry mix is different, globalization is different, home ownership rate is different. The mechanism is therefore different.
yeah plus the oil crisis..
Calculate unemployment the same way they did when the misery index was high in the 70's, then revisit this. Paints a very different picture. For even more fun calculate unemployment the way it was done during the great depression (my understanding is they initially didn't have any unemployment benefits). The numbers are being fudged to paint a pretty picture, but just about everyone knows things aren't great right now.
I agree. The way the calculate unemployment rate in general is garbage. There is way more unemployed people than they are accounting for. Even if they just based it on active unemployment benefits, they still aren’t scratching the surface. Not everyone qualifies.
I work with a ton of 50 mill plus companies. They all say the same thing. Sales are dropping like a rock
We are seeing companies going out of buisness picking up and people not being able to pay their bills pick up. But folks are still calling for a soft or no landing. I find it funny and sad all at the same time.
The actual inflation rate now is 30%. Check your wallet.
Someone w a brain wow!!!
@Gus_Magnus based on M2 money supply. Oh, my cc statement each month confirms it too.
I'm not seeing where everyone comes up with inflation numbers like
3%
8%
10%
15%
20%
!!!!!!!
Gas is double then four years ago.
Housing/rent Is double
Interest rates are double
1 gallon of milk is double
Everything is nearly double...
That's 100% increase people. Easy numbers. I promise you they think people are going to be civil and this have a soft landing. No movie can interpret nor prepare for what's about to happen.
I suggest having a relationship with Christ Jesus because even though you may suffer and hurt in this life. You do not have to for eternity...
I can tell you all the food, essentials, & fuel I buy is inflated more than 30%.
Exactly. According to my receipts it's at minimum 25%.
Our congress has no idea how we Americans are feeling, we individuals are fed up with this treasonous administration. I feel pity for our country. A lot of people are suffering to survive! I appreciate Gianna Everett! Imagine investing $2000 and receiving $6,500 in 4days.
Wow, you know Gianna too? I thought I'm the only one she has helped work through the fears and falls of the forest.
I'm grateful to her. Although I started with as low as $1,500 actually because it was my first time and it was successful she's a great personality in the state
Fact about investing is money invested is far better than Money saved. When you invest, it works for you and help you bring more money back to you
Getting Gianna Everett to help me really helped me clear all my debits. I started with what I have left and it's been the best decision I ever made
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?
What I am amazed by is how wall street is so out of touch with Main Street. How much longer can the market keep going up
We keep kicking that can down the road, the cliff has to be near, the thing is what will crash will it be the housing market, the stock market or no jobs, if we get a 3 piece we could be in a world of 💩
Wall Street is not out of touch it's the nature of greed
Whoever the folks who are driving it up, they seem to have infinite money!
Because people keep spending on their credit cards so the stores on Wall Street get $$ the day after the transaction. However it will take years for people to pay back the $$ to the credit card company
Wall Street doesn’t care about Main Street. Never has never will.
It’s my understanding the unemployment rate does not include people who were laid off with a severence. Also does not include those unemployed after one year, lastly, does not take into account many people now work 2-3 jobs to afford food & housing
Yeah the word is supposed to be misleading. I think a book called 194 called it newspeak.
Unemployment rate only counts those currently getting unemployment payments. Tons of people not working and not being counted.
This channel has really improved over the past 3 years ….nice job
People need to realize their home is a place to live, not an investment. The unemployment numbers as per an independent think tank, as of last week they say it's between 6.5% and 8.0%. All the economic numbers are, to be nice massaged, so they don't freak out the consumer.
I don't see it that way, but I can understand your perspective. I just sold my primary residence two months ago which was our biggest and most expensive home over a 23 year period and downsized financially in HALF! We are moving out of state to a place we actually desire to live and bought a nice home/property. We feel extremely blessed to start a new life on such sound financial footing. A paid for primary is almost non negotiable to retire or chase a passion for most Americans. Real estate can be a huge benefit when it's time to downsize. We decided to do it at only 47. I would urge others to do it far earlier than average too.
@@ProCoach2373 where??
@@ProCoach2373 Well the thing about your perspective is it not should be the ideal. I want a place to live and a community to contribute to, and I never want to ever sell things to that community so that I can prosper while they suffer. If my society does not continue onwards into a state that is better for the people after me to live, then I want those responsbile for that problem to be dealt with. Not for me to make things slightly ok for myself and let those around me die in vein.
@@CatgirlExplise6039 This is a very muddy topic. For some, it's still paradise where I sold. I believe I can make a contribution no matter where I choose to live. In fact, I will continue to pour into people in that community through my coaching business. I don't personally believe I need to stay in a location I no longer desire to FIX it. IMO, the only real effective way to create change is by investing the best of ourselves in others. Be a positive influence and help them rise to their potential. With Zoom and other means, that can be done from ANYWHERE. Additionally, being far closer to family is important to me. Supporting my family in old age is one of the most important values in my life at this point.
You are the only person in the last 4 years trying to contain the Housing Inflation and creating awareness. But certain people and investors are blinded and kept purchasing houses more and more and kept maintaing higher inflation.
The real unemployment rate is at least 15 % now. They only count people collecting unemployment.
Yep, "unemployment numbers" are totally fudged and not reflective of reality.
I love all the graphs you show and simple you make things sound. History will repeat itself!
Awesome video Nick! This bubble is getting bigger but the pop will be more painful the longer they let it blow
To be fair he has been making this same video for the past 4 years saying the same thing, yet here we are. Eventually he will be right and things will go down but it'll also go up
@@jgregg7100 not everyone can time the market. You will be fine only if you owned your home before 2020. My timeline before COVID was 2023 due to my personal circumstances but COVID changed the world and housing market upside down. Now I won’t buy as I don’t have FOmO. I don’t want to pay twice the amount of what the property was worth just 3 years ago and get interest rate at 7%. J don’t see earning that much income for 30 years. I can wait for this to pop. You live YOLO. I am growing my assets in other ways and also enjoying the flexibility to move should my job change
Thanks for helping talk me out of a house when rates were under 4% and 30% cheaper.
😂😂
I see another version of GFC in 2008-09 soon with deflation, high unemployment, market crash by 50-75% and housing market by 50%, or more. And when rates will drop to 0 again i'm going all in stock markets and then, after year or two will focus on housing market. Oh I forgot to add devaluation of dollar this time again when black swan show up.
What are the parallels and differences you perceive supporting your hypothesis?
I'm going to "put" this ride it all the way down and "call" it all the way back up....... Got my 10 to 1 of NVDA today.
It's bad enough with unemployment and inflation, especially if someone has medical problems and you're not invested well enough to keep up with the costs of everything. Terrifying. My heart goes out to people suffering with families
You still speak as though the Fed really means well 😖
Thanks for the videos
Looks like people were a lot less miserable 2016-2020 than 2020-2023.
@Gus_Magnuswhat a dumb fucking comment
Here is some food for thought: In 2019 the average gallon of gas in the U.S. was $2.60 per gallon; as of May of 2024 this has climbed up to $3.73 per gallon (a 43% increase). In 2019 the average gallon of No. 2 diesel was $3.12, and is currently $4.02 (a 28% increase).
Federal minimum wage is still $7.25.
Over $5 in SoCal.
@@amazoidal I feel you. I live in central Oregon and I just paid $4.29 a gallon for gasoline.
Looking back on the past 30 years, I did what I was supposed to do. Saved $ in my IRA, worked hard, lived below my income, none of it got me anywhere. I’m going to be struggling in retirement, that’s only IF I can stop working.
Looking forward to learning on this one. Not sure where I land on the inflation/deflation debate but your content is always appreciate
For those keeping track, if you've been waiting for the drop in stocks or housing since Nick has been calling for a downturn you've missed out on a 43% gain in the S&P and 28% growth in house prices.
Nick has accurately predicted 25 of the last zero recessions and housing crashes.
Lol a perfect record of futility.
He's got to pay his rent somehow.
Lol
Well, give him time! Sooner or later he’ll get it right.
He will create many permanent renters who listen to him and keep patiently waiting for the inevitable crash
These things don't happen overnight. The 2008 debt bubble in the housing sector was a multi year process. There's multiple nearly perfect recession indicators flashing red, particularly the yield curve and Walmart earnings. If we get recession, we get high unemployment and a lot of people forced to leave their low rate mortgages.
EXCELLENT VIDEO! 😊❤I think unemployment numbers are based upon unemployment filings. The homeless, disabled, and retirees do not bother with the unemployment headache, so I am thinking our ACTUAL unemployment numbers are probably closer to 20-25%.
Back in the 70’s, there was only one bread winner single income, but now married couples both have to enter work force which then increase the home value.
I am all for equal opportuinity but damn if I was a woman... I would want to stay home and not have to do the grid everyday. Those days are long gone. Folks really need to be careful of what they wish for.
It finally happened! Yesterday..my house dropped by 57,000 ( im in CA)
Where in Calif are you? San Diego hasn't dropped.
No Worries for you
Those underware need to drop also to subsidize the income
Don't forget we went off the gold standard in 1971, which sent the dollar value plummeting.
@Gus_Magnus It absolutely did because everyone immediately lost confidence in it as the world reserve currency and started dumping their dollar holdings. It wasn't until the Petro Dollar Act in 1975 that it stabilized as it required most of the world once again to hold dollars.
@Gus_Magnus Only Keynesian economists think that. Going off the gold standard was a crime against American people, and the Petro Dollar Act was a crime against the world.
@Gus_Magnus It is verifiably 100% correct.
@Gus_Magnus Gold price:
1971: $35
Today: ~$2400
Median household income in dollars:
1971: $10,290
2024: $77,397
Median household income in gold ounces:
1971: 294
2024: 32
Average house price in dollars:
1971: $25,200 (2.4x med inc)
2024: $420,800 (5.4x med inc)
Average house price in gold ounces:
1971: 720
2024: 175
A similar demonstration can be made with food, energy and virtually any other every day expense.
The dollar's purchasing has been destroyed since going off the gold standard and incomes have not gone up at same rate to offset its devaluation (neither in dollar or gold terms). Tax bracket adjustments also haven't kept up with inflation (i.e. dollar devaluation). So the American people have progressively been getting paid less, but paying more in taxes, while our government still spends more than it collects (by further dollar creation and thus devaluation, something you cannot do on a gold standard), with nothing to our benefit to show for it.
Gold's purchasing power on the other hand has gone up by an order of magnitude, despite manipulation and artificial price suppression.
@@budala1969 population grew too much to remain on the gold standard. On top of that there’s not enough gold to run a reserve on purely gold. Also as the population begins to decline at the end of this century you’ll need to reduce the money supply to counteract the shrinking population.
Let's see. I make $60,000 a year. I have 3 kids, expecting Baby 4. My grocery bill is about $350 to now $420 per week. I eat one meal a day so that they can have good food.
The Fed can go F itself when they say no stagflation, and inflation is coming down. It's insulting to my intelligence, regardless of level of intelligence. I know what I have given up and what I pay every week.
I love this channel because I know so many people who live in a mirage, and the facts slung here help me to pop their oblivious “Happiness Bubble.”
Better to be slapped with the Truth,
than kissed with a Lie.
Workers, pensioners, students all are struggling to pay bills.
On the other hand Managers , Director's , Shareholders are all doing very well.
Its happening in most countries excessive greed is driving price hikes.
Agree and that is not going to end well.
This is not happening. The 1970's had high wage increases as well. Without that there can't be sustainable inflation.
Correct, there's almost always a wage-price spiral. If it goes on unresolved, it eventually gets to the point where you're buying bread with wheelbarrows of cash and everyone completely loses faith in the currency, which in the case of fiat currencies, is all that supports its value.
You can have price inflation and wage & salary deflation if you have supply side inflation which is what we have now. Putin's got us right where he wants us. He's causing worldwide supply side inflation with his so-called special military operation!
I was a student in the 1970s but i remember the crazy inflation of the times. I haven't heard the term "stagflation" since the late 70s.
What's the possibility of a total collapse with hyperinflation in the US? Just trying to estimate how much ammo/canned food I should get soon.
In the 80's economists opined that a 6% unemployment rate was the natural floor and equated to full employment.
According to Shadow stats in the past 4 years combined we have already lost 30 to 40% purchasing power. And in the past 10 who knows...
Unemployment figures have been adjusted to include "non-citizens" working. Unemployment actual rates for US citizens is very different.
Stagflation, I heard this term 2 or 3 years ago on the Steve Bannon rumble channel with one of the big Trump advisors. It's all coming true just as he predicted. He said we are hurling towards the 70s recession if we keep going we will be in the depression of the 30s!! He was 100% spot on because now even you are saying these things so I sure hope we don't get into a depression!
If you are rich and hold assets like homes and stocks, the economy is booming for you. If you are a working class American you are experiencing a silent depression where everyone is being squeezed by inflation and you no longer see a positive future for America. When rent, food, and necessities keep climbing but the fat cats at the top still pay 1990 salaries, how long until enough people can't afford hosing and food. How long until the majority of Americans would rather tear their non functioning government down instead of playing their part in the system. The Boomers have stolen and spent Americas future. We cannot afford to live let alone have children. America is a crumbling empire and it will get much worse before it falls. Soon our service on the debt will become unsustainable and we will print money until we are all poor.
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
Yeah, things may be hard right now, but I've come to realize both bear and bull market, recessions and economic boom, all provide opportunities to make high gains, I used to call bluff on folks that bragged about making a fortune from such down-markets until I happened to do so myself
I agree. I've been working with a financial advisor since 2020, and I return up to 15k every month, and I don't even have to lift a finger. Although I also think the reason I make this much is because I started with significant capital.
That's quite impressive! I could really benefit from the expertise of these advisors; my portfolio has been performing poorly. Who is guiding you?
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
Here’s a cool economic perspective for ya. If the post office was publicly funded, they wouldn’t need revenue from delivering junk mail. If we weren’t consuming all our lumber with throw away paper advertisements, the price of lumber would go down making homes more affordable.
It would not surprise me if in the last decade we’ve thrown away enough paper to have housed the homeless. Or at least gotten the middle aged kids out of their parents basement and into full blown household scale economic participants. As here’s another economic insight for ya, living in an apartment or with parents delays consumption. When you own a home, you buy furniture, and yard stuff, garage stuff, you have dedicated rooms for hobbies. Just having space is a huge economic driver. When the housing issues finally get sorted, it’s going to release the floodgates of delayed consumption.
Feel free to broadcast any of these insights. No credit necessary, but appreciated if it feels easeful to mention.
Will be more than 10% unemplyment when construction stops
Good vid.
If we don’t balance the federal budget we will never know what the economy is really
It's way past time to balance the federal budget. I heard federal debt interest payments exceed federal tax revenue for the first time ever this year. Best thing is for the government to hold a going out of business sale and ask the King to take the reins.
@@EdwardM-t8p Man who gives a shit. I want a society to live in that i can contribute to so that I feel good as a human being. I dont give a shit about any of that. I want a community to give to and a place to live and a world that is some-what not fucking abhorrent and hateful so i dont think about killing myself constantly
The jobs on INDEED are just horrible. I scroll for hours everyday. Either low pay at $21/hour or very intangible like royalty analyst. Maybe there is a secret job site I don't know about. I'd better hurry before....
This is what crazy inflation and crazy interest rates did back then: average US house price in 1970 was $20k, in the 80’s $90k and by 1990 it had gone to $242,360. So during those 20 years of high inflation, home prices increased by a whopping 1,200%
If course in 1991/1992 the market crashed and interest rates, inflation, and home prices all came down to reasonable levels.
In the 1970s there was no homeless only a few and people did not use credit cards
So, are you trying to say that credit card use rather than impossible rent costs are the reason for homelessness? Ridiculous.
lt;dr - The economy, which relied on consumerism, is stalled because the 1% can't suck any more out of us.
What happened is the 1% got into real estate. They are now many of our landlords. My rent has increased by 80% in three years. That sucks out ALL of my discretionary spending AND THEY KNOW IT. They gobble up our money into their pockets and none is now going into the economy. They simply are doubling down on greed, knowing that a crash is coming - sucking out as much as they possibly can until it all breaks.
Never has the entire planet been this insolvent
Thats what people don't understand... it's the whole damn world.
Thank you Sir!
Whatever is better for black rock is what's going to happen. The market is manipulated and controlled.
Gold was a good investment in the 1970s. Also energy stocks was good. Make sure it high dividends paying stocks not growth.
A key note is that stagflation in the 70s was also supported by accelerating expansion in bank lending. Without banks extending credit, people, businesses etc. default and pay back on their debt and money supply shrinks. The stagflationary effect would continue as long as bank credit（or US government bonds）expands.
I am curious how many people actually trust the unemployment numbers. These last few years are the first time in my life I can remember the companies in my area doing multiple rounds of layoffs and significant local store closures.
Home prices kept accelerating in the 70s and 80s as women entered the workforce. The only thing that can save prices now, is having 8 year old Timmy get a jo.b
I would love that graph of consumer sentiment!
Remember that in the ‘70’s the house that you bought was significantly smaller than what’s on the market today. So house prices will fall. But not as much as it would have if they were the same houses. Just as a 1970 car is a different animal than what you would buy today.
Politicians are not losing sleep, politicians are millionaires or multimillionaire. 😊
Jerome stuck in an impossible situation with this never-ending fiscal debt spending.
Ugh... thats why it's so hard to justify my retirement money be tied to the stock market. It doesn't go up forever. It eventually goes down.
Very good. But a CD or T bill is not bad at all. Better to make a little money, than lose half.
Please do an update on Boise..
Please stop. The sky is not falling. Markets go up and then markets go down - rinse and repeat.
if they actually increased the interest rate to a higher level, stagflation wouldn't be an issue! We'd only have stagnation, which is fine with me!
Unemployment figures are misleading. A growing number or people have given up on seeking employment, or have more than one job to try to make ends meet during stagflation.
FJB
Everytime I see someone pointing to a chart with an exponential curve upwards and stating "things must crash, this isnt sustainable" I encourage them to move backwards on that same chart and you will continue to see a similar exponential curve upwards interspersed with corrections. This is how compounding works. The recent ups and downs will begin looking like mole hills as time goes on. The markets are a factor of the monetary growth cycle. As money grows (mostly thanks to people and businesses borrowing and paying interest), it grows assets, homes, stocks, debts, etc. The reason why things are different now as compared to the 70's/80's is because now we are in an economic spring (exiting an econ winter) whereas in 70/80 we were in an economic summer/fall. These are Dentian terms, but understanding where we are contextually can better help people plan and invest.
biden is making carter look good biden or WALTER
Has nothing to do with Biden, or Trump, or Obama, or Bush. This has been building up for years and all of them have been kicking the can down the road.
I agree with this, that's why I'm fully in cash. Cash or gold is king in this possible scenario.
But Target and other retailers are announcing price cuts his week. If consumers pull back on their spending (as seems to be the case), won’t that drop in demand put downward pressure on prices?
He has got to go now!! Powell has no solution for the continued growth of inflation.
With high inflation, it will be worthwhile to buy now. A $100k house today could be worth $200k in 10 years with 10% annual inflation, while your mortgage remains at the lower price. As salaries catch up to inflation over a decade, you'll benefit from lower real monthly payments, making the investment even more advantageous.