@@MostlyLoveOfMusicI wonder if that would be easier or harder, because he obviously knows the U.K. very well, but the places are overall much more similar looking, so it might be hard to glean much in 0.1 seconds
i made a comment years ago on a video that I would be interested in a Latitude-Guessr style game, because I am somehow fascinated by when tom is bang on the latitude even across the globe
Assuming 10k people play your challenge, it's 1/(25k*10k) = 1/250,000,000 = 4 bilionths, which sounds far too few to be honest. It's probable I'm oversimplifying it.
@@djoverkin Not even close to the right calculation, but this is not a calculation that can be done without a computer. A close approximation gives me 0.0002^10000 which is 0 on my calculator. The real result is in fact much lower since getting a possible score from 0 to 5000 isn't really 1/5001.
@@ArsenEntertainment You forgot the 5 rounds, your 0.0002 only takes into account the score for a single round but the 11111 is clearly for all five. Edit: okay, for 3 out of 5
i was thinking he'd only have that long to click the location on the map too! that would be wild and pretty much impossible to get even the right country 😆
I was hunched over, inches away from my computer monitor, eyes dry from intently staring and not blinking, complete focus for the next round, and 12:50 was like one of the worst jump scares I've ever experienced
I'll be conservative and assume that 2,000 people play along with you (out of everyone who watches the vid). We also have to make the assumption that all scores are equally likely, since we don't know the real probability distribution of an average person's score in this gamemode. Since "zero" is a possible score, there are 25,001 possible scores in a game of Geoguesser. Each person's odds of getting any score is independent, so we just multiply each person's odds together. We can express this mathematically as (1/25,001)^2,000. 1/25001 is already a really small number (0.0000399), and taken to the 2000th power become ridiculously tiny. We can then do 1 divided by the result of this expression to get the odds. So here's the final calculation: 1/((1/25001)^2000). Plugging this into google will actually just give you "undefined" and so will almost any online calculator. To get a rough estimate, I had to do the work by hand using scientific notation, but I'll spare you the details. Here's the approximate odds (with all the zeros). 1 in 82000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000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That's "82" followed by 8974 zeros. That is indeed more than the number of atoms in the universe. UNFATHOMABLY more. It's not even close. Except... RUclips won't let me type all the zeros I need (comment too long). What you see here is only 8386 zeroes, but hopefully it gets the point across.
@@GeoWizard Glad you liked it! Other commenters have used a normal distribution to calculate the probability of a given score (instead of assuming that all scores are equally likely), so their odds are probably more accurate than mine. Oh well!
@@MarekIwaszkiewiczMusic Also a flaw in the maths is that there are many multiple combinations of achieving a score of 11111. In fact quite a lot. This only shows the path for 2000 times the same score of this. And let's not forget what the OP said that there likely is a probability distribution for scores as well. All in all I have to disagree with this calculation but since there are too many unknowns and it would take forever (or maths that I don't know lmao) to get all possible combinations for 11111, I can't coke up with something better.
I guess, for the probability thing, you could set up the equation a + b + c = 11111, then find all 5000 combinations each where 'a' goes from 0 to 5000 as only positive integers less than or equal to 5000 are possible as an individual score and then solve for the possible values of b,c where b also does the same thing but keeping in mind that c must never exceed 5000. Then the total no of possibilities will be something like P = 2π[5000(sum of no. of combinations of a,b,c) - (sum of each combination of a,b,c)] I subtracted each value of a,b,c from 5000 because the closer you are the greater your score is, so that the radius of the circle of which all the possible region for a single combination of a,b,c lie on can be found, the length of the circumference of the circle is then the individual length on which the same score (combination) can be obtained. But notice that the no. of combinations for a,b,c must be the same so the (sum of no. of combinations of a,b,c) can be written as 3*(no. of combinations of 'a') and also the (sum of each combination of a,b,c) must also contain 11111 (no. of combination of 'a') times so it can be written as 11111*(no. of combinations of 'a') so now in P we can take (no. of combination of 'a') as common to get P = 2π[(no. of combination of 'a')(3*5000-11111)] => P = 2π[3889(no. of combinations of 'a')]. Now a,b,c also have the lower limit of 11111-2*5000 = 1111 since if any one of them is 1111 the other 2 will become the maximum value (5000) to have the sum be 11111 so the total (no. of possible combinations of 'a') will be ((5000-1111)+1)*2) = 7780 (multiplied by 2 since order matters and when 'a' is fixed b and c can be interchanged have 2 combinations for that value of 'a'). Finnaly the no. of possibilities P = 2π[3889*7780] ≈ 190106693.592 there are as of now 17000 people who have watched so the probability is 17000/2π[3889*7780] which is approximately 0.00008942 out of 1 for anyone of them to have that particular score. I have absolutely no idea if any of this correct, I just did what made sense to me, please point out the mistakes wherever they are if you can understand my thought process because English isn't my first language.
@@TorreFLoeckx the region where the same score is possible lies on the circumference of a circle centred at the correct location, and the length of the circumference of a circle is 2πr where r is the radius of the circle (in this case r = (5000-the score) )
The round delay, as rhe name would suggest, delays when the round flashes on the screen after you press "next round". It can be helpful to get your eyes locked in on the screen. I suggest maybe 1 second. Great video as always Tom 🔥
This was so much fun. Really easy for me to play along (badly) just by guessing while watching the video. I reckon you could attempt this again after some casual Geoguessr playing to get some of your old vibes back. It would be fascinating to see how quickly you could improve. Thanks for the video Tom!
Lots of phenomenal photos in this challenge! I had to pause quite a few times to get a longer look. The two in the last game from Turkey were especially gorgeous!
I saw someone once explain to a skeptic (who thought Rainbolt was cheating on his 0.1 seconds videos) how for Geoguessr pros, seeing a location is just like seeing a face. Within a split second, as a result of so much practice and training, they can automatically pull huge amounts of information. We don't think about it often, but to an alien it would probably be fascinating how you could see a picture of a face flash up for 0.1 seconds and could easily tell me the approximate age, gender, race, and even emotional state of the person you saw.
Great concept! I think a 1-2 second delay before the image, to separate it from the loading screen would be nice however. (Also thank you so very much for showing us the image for much longer!
As a mathematician, here are my calculations. On the first round, you would need to get more than 1111 points to end up with 11111 on round three. Hence, the chance of doing so will be (5000-1111)/5000 * 100% = 77.8% (assuming that there is an equal chance of getting each score). After the second round, you would need a minimum of 11111-5000 = 6111 points. Given that on the last round, you had to have somewhere between 1111 and 5000 points, that would mean that on round two you would need to have at least 1111 points (if you had 5000 on round one) and at most 5000 points (if you had 1111 on round one). Thus, we once again need to get more than 1111 points, giving us a chance of (5000-1111)/5000 * 100% = 77.8%. Now, on round three, there is only one score you can get to achieve the total of 11111 points, so the chance of doing so will be 1/5000 * 100% = 0.02%. If we now take all three rounds into account, we get that the chance for someone to get 11111 points after three rounds is equal to 0.778 * 0.778 * 0.0002 * 100% = 0.01210 %. On GeoGuessr, I could only scroll down to 600th place on the leaderboards, so I'll assume that there were 600 people who played that map. We can see this as 600 independent experiments, with a chance of 0.01210% of success. Hence, we get that the chance for all people to get 11111 points on round three to be (0.0001210)^600 * 100% = (121^600)/(10^3598). This is astronomically small. On any calculator I tried, the result is 0. You would probably need thousands of zeros to portray it.
having seen the first game so far, you're actually doing better than I expected. certainly better than I could do. Hopefully the next two are as fortunate
Much love Tom! I started watching your videos in my dorm room 1st year of college and now I find myself watching you play geoguessr the day after graduating with my doctorate 7 years later. Pretty awesome!
Definite mathematician here. And it’s a 50/50 chance of everyone being on the same score. Either they are, or they’re not. Therefore, 50/50. You’re welcome, Tom!
"thats just me being shit" hahahahahah never gets old Tom. You're still amazing. I never doubt you. I was here for the prime, the adventures. years. And we all know you're the legend . This is still the most entertaining stuff to watch because i actually know you are full of endless knowledge.
Agreed. The angle and the lighting made it feel more deserty. Include the size of the roads and lack of buildings and it could easily be mistaken for America or Australia or (for me) Spain. I was just going off the plants and hills and cleanliness of the roads. When he looked at it on afterwards, it definitely looked more East-European/Asian.
sometimes when you check the location after guessing it will show newer coverage - in this case, the game displayed Sep 2022 coverage, but clicking on the location jumped to Jan 2024 coverage
Watching your videos over my Playstation 4. And after every of your videos, I pick up my phone to open the RUclips app and comment on your stuff. Because it helps me receiving more good content
yet another banger tom! loved the energy in this video. cant wait for the mission across england series coming! i know youve been working your socks off at editing it!! haha!! much love, megan + adum
I have aphantasia so I don't get a "print in my mind". That concept is so foreign to me haha. It's crazy to watch this! Good job with everything man, it's always impressive :)
Not sure if you noticed while editing, but the picture you were given in the final round, was different from the picture it showed you when you went back to check for yourself.
Tom, would love to see you continue to get better at geoguesser! Show us how you learn these things that people like Rainbolt and others use to know where they are so well. You are really good at this game and would love to see videos on you learning how to get even better.
That was fun, Rusty Davies! I'd like to see you do as many 0.1's as you can on the clock, say in 1 minute. Score = proximity points + quantity. I think it'd make for entertaining practise and probably produce some fun Insane Guesses too 😎
Hey Tom! Just a tip for when you do this again. The very last round where you thought it was Vegas, you'll know its Vegas by the lane dividers. They don't use painted road lines here. Instead they use reflectors on almost every road. There are some remote undeveloped areas that still have painted lines though. Hope it helps!
Just so you know, the round delay option is for it to have some time to load and for you to prepare so it doesnt flash up instantly when you load in, most people put it on 1 second
2:10 - That must be amazing to be able to do. I have no minds eye (Aphantasia), so I've no comprehension of what you mean. I guess this type of challenge is a non started for me.
13:45 - If there is any data regarding the score distributions, Id love to goof around with some cheeky geoMaths. Do you think GeoGuessr executives would be willing to share these information? Otherwise if anybody has access to any type of interesting GeoGuessr data please lmk and I'd love to share my findings with you all. Bless you and have a gorgeous day everyone!
and to answer your question in the video, if we assume the scores are normally distributed with mean 16000 (made it up but logic checks out((data i need))) and standard deviation of 2850 (derived from assumption of 90% of scores on the interval 7000 - 24000) I found that around 19% of the players will have a score of at least 11111 after the 3rd round. Furthermore if you assume 10 people were playing at the same time, the likelihood of everyone being above 11111 is 0.19^10 = 0.000000061 or less than 1/10000 of 1%. Obviously the more people you add and the stricter you are about the score boundary the lesser this percentage will become, so if we are looking at 100 people playing at a time with a score of exactly 11111 after round 3 (which itself will have a probability of less than 1/5000 for just 1 person) the chances become slightly smaller at (1/5000)^100 = 5 * 10^(-3000) which is 0.000...(around 2996 0's more)...5, which is still higher than the likelihood you will get laid tonight if you read all this. Cheers geofriends mwah.
I played game 3 and got 18k. My first 4 guesses were pretty similar but I got Turkey somehow. Might've been because it reminded me so much of the third round, but I also picked up on the climate + road lines + divided highway
I got Kenya on my first try simply because it reminded me perfectly of the Top Gear Africa Special, with the tea plantations...and the hotel. Same with the road in Jordan, the Middle East Special.
Assuming an avg round's score of 2500 and a standard deviation of 1000, you have a 0.017% chance of getting a score of 11,111 after 4 rounds. Which is an estimation because the normal distribution is actually truncated but anyway... With N people playing, the odds of everyone having that score = 0.00017^N. So after 100 comments, there will be a 1 in 10^377 chance of everyone scoring 11,111. The observable universe has less than 10^100 atoms.
Thanks, i don't think the mu and sigma would be right for this situation but it is a fine estimation. One problem is that he played 3 rounds for that score, not 4.
Great video Tom, would be good if you could keep the screenshot on for longer, maybe just stick it above your face, because you’re talking about what you think you saw for a while after it’s gone, and it’d be good to be able to compare all of your thoughts with what was actually there 👍🏼
I've been using (and investing in) Geovision AI and it's been really good. They plan to have a contest with some Geoguessrs soon. Can't wait to see who wins!
Found that this was somehow easier the less time I thought and the more I relied on intuition. The longer the thinking, the more the image faded away from memory.
![Geoguessr but the famous place is behind you [PLAY ALONG]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/qdd6lqQTsTI/mqdefault.jpg)
![Geoguessr but the famous place is behind you [PLAY ALONG]](/img/tr.png)
![Diggy Graves - Red Vineyard [Official Lyric Video]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/8Ro085T0mnQ/mqdefault.jpg)
Do me a big favour and drop the vid a like? only if you adore the purple Peugeot though.
Already did mate, if only I could like this twice I would
This could have been a good idea for an April fools video
Play these settings but for only the UK map?
@@MostlyLoveOfMusicI wonder if that would be easier or harder, because he obviously knows the U.K. very well, but the places are overall much more similar looking, so it might be hard to glean much in 0.1 seconds
@geowizard, hey whats the music from? i love the vibe!
Tom may be rusty, but he's still got that generational talent for getting the latitude right
generational?
@@jlt131 football reference mainly, means you're one of the best in your generation
i made a comment years ago on a video that I would be interested in a Latitude-Guessr style game, because I am somehow fascinated by when tom is bang on the latitude even across the globe
@@dakineprotoss yeah, I've been watching him for 5 to 6 years, and he always get's it bang on. Absolutely mad.
what time in the video?????
Never realised I've been waiting for this video all my life
We need another colab!!!!!!!!
we're waiting for the cex tape
@@omrxblah4572 what
Did you play along? And in that case, were you at 11111? Doing a survey for soma casual stats work
Oscaaaar
as a mathematician, i can confidently say the chances of everyone being on 11111 are very slim
Is it more than atoms in the universe or not
Assuming 10k people play your challenge, it's 1/(25k*10k) = 1/250,000,000 = 4 bilionths, which sounds far too few to be honest. It's probable I'm oversimplifying it.
@@djoverkin Not even close to the right calculation, but this is not a calculation that can be done without a computer. A close approximation gives me 0.0002^10000 which is 0 on my calculator. The real result is in fact much lower since getting a possible score from 0 to 5000 isn't really 1/5001.
hey guys, YOU CAN'T CALCULATE HOW PEOPLE WILL GUESS SOMETHING
@@ArsenEntertainment You forgot the 5 rounds, your 0.0002 only takes into account the score for a single round but the 11111 is clearly for all five. Edit: okay, for 3 out of 5
I don't know why, but those screenshots of you staring intently at the screen were just hilarious
your dressed like youre about to tell me through the drive thu window that youre out of the thing i want.
😂
Or a funky dj with the headphones
Spelling, who needs it, huh.
@@Vertical-sandwichesit’ll be alright man try not to get too upset.
@@Vertical-sandwicheswe can forgive the errors for how funny it was.
I wasn't sure what 0.1 seconds would feel like, but I laughed out loud when the first image flashed on the screen. 😄
i was thinking he'd only have that long to click the location on the map too! that would be wild and pretty much impossible to get even the right country 😆
@@amoxl114 I have seen all of them. This is the first time he has played this format.
@@amoxl114he was referring to clicking the country within 0.1 too. Nobody can do that.
I was hunched over, inches away from my computer monitor, eyes dry from intently staring and not blinking, complete focus for the next round, and 12:50 was like one of the worst jump scares I've ever experienced
I'll be conservative and assume that 2,000 people play along with you (out of everyone who watches the vid). We also have to make the assumption that all scores are equally likely, since we don't know the real probability distribution of an average person's score in this gamemode. Since "zero" is a possible score, there are 25,001 possible scores in a game of Geoguesser. Each person's odds of getting any score is independent, so we just multiply each person's odds together.
We can express this mathematically as (1/25,001)^2,000. 1/25001 is already a really small number (0.0000399), and taken to the 2000th power become ridiculously tiny. We can then do 1 divided by the result of this expression to get the odds. So here's the final calculation: 1/((1/25001)^2000).
Plugging this into google will actually just give you "undefined" and so will almost any online calculator. To get a rough estimate, I had to do the work by hand using scientific notation, but I'll spare you the details.
Here's the approximate odds (with all the zeros). 1 in 82000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000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That's "82" followed by 8974 zeros. That is indeed more than the number of atoms in the universe. UNFATHOMABLY more. It's not even close.
Except... RUclips won't let me type all the zeros I need (comment too long). What you see here is only 8386 zeroes, but hopefully it gets the point across.
Mate that’s is an incredible effort. Thank you. Truly mind boggling.
@@GeoWizard Glad you liked it!
Other commenters have used a normal distribution to calculate the probability of a given score (instead of assuming that all scores are equally likely), so their odds are probably more accurate than mine. Oh well!
Great Maths! I would only take in consideration that Tom said this on the end of round 4, so the score would cap at 20,001 instead of 25,001
@@MarekIwaszkiewiczMusic Also a flaw in the maths is that there are many multiple combinations of achieving a score of 11111. In fact quite a lot. This only shows the path for 2000 times the same score of this.
And let's not forget what the OP said that there likely is a probability distribution for scores as well.
All in all I have to disagree with this calculation but since there are too many unknowns and it would take forever (or maths that I don't know lmao) to get all possible combinations for 11111, I can't coke up with something better.
@@jojogh10 As a dumb non-mathematician, what I've learned from all of this is that everyone achieving 11111 basically wouldn't happen
I am ready to watch you attempt for the first time the very first time 0.1 seconds per round Geoguesser
On a map that he's also never played, a community world
Having not played geoguessr properly in months
yeah, this should be interesting
@@bansheetwenty7103 I think I've got about as good a chance
As someone wearing this shirt
I guess, for the probability thing, you could set up the equation a + b + c = 11111, then find all 5000 combinations each where 'a' goes from 0 to 5000 as only positive integers less than or equal to 5000 are possible as an individual score and then solve for the possible values of b,c where b also does the same thing but keeping in mind that c must never exceed 5000. Then the total no of possibilities will be something like P = 2π[5000(sum of no. of combinations of a,b,c) - (sum of each combination of a,b,c)]
I subtracted each value of a,b,c from 5000 because the closer you are the greater your score is, so that the radius of the circle of which all the possible region for a single combination of a,b,c lie on can be found, the length of the circumference of the circle is then the individual length on which the same score (combination) can be obtained.
But notice that the no. of combinations for a,b,c must be the same so the (sum of no. of combinations of a,b,c) can be written as 3*(no. of combinations of 'a') and also the (sum of each combination of a,b,c) must also contain 11111 (no. of combination of 'a') times so it can be written as 11111*(no. of combinations of 'a') so now in P we can take (no. of combination of 'a') as common to get P = 2π[(no. of combination of 'a')(3*5000-11111)] => P = 2π[3889(no. of combinations of 'a')].
Now a,b,c also have the lower limit of 11111-2*5000 = 1111 since if any one of them is 1111 the other 2 will become the maximum value (5000) to have the sum be 11111 so the total (no. of possible combinations of 'a') will be ((5000-1111)+1)*2) = 7780 (multiplied by 2 since order matters and when 'a' is fixed b and c can be interchanged have 2 combinations for that value of 'a').
Finnaly the no. of possibilities P = 2π[3889*7780] ≈ 190106693.592 there are as of now 17000 people who have watched so the probability is 17000/2π[3889*7780] which is approximately 0.00008942 out of 1 for anyone of them to have that particular score.
I have absolutely no idea if any of this correct, I just did what made sense to me, please point out the mistakes wherever they are if you can understand my thought process because English isn't my first language.
I'll definitely give you points for showing your working
That's what I was gonna say
Why do you theow in pi my guy
@@TorreFLoeckx the region where the same score is possible lies on the circumference of a circle centred at the correct location, and the length of the circumference of a circle is 2πr where r is the radius of the circle (in this case r = (5000-the score) )
this guy just said "English isn't my first language." while posting this novel sized formula
The round delay, as rhe name would suggest, delays when the round flashes on the screen after you press "next round". It can be helpful to get your eyes locked in on the screen. I suggest maybe 1 second. Great video as always Tom 🔥
You look like you downed 2 coffees right before recording! I actually liked the vid, these ‘low effort’ videos are keeping me entertained :)
@@WangoBango too right
@@WangoBangoI'd call that a GeoBlizzard, who's with me? Up top.
"Whatever image is there is rapidly fading" *screenshot fades* - high class content
This was so much fun. Really easy for me to play along (badly) just by guessing while watching the video. I reckon you could attempt this again after some casual Geoguessr playing to get some of your old vibes back. It would be fascinating to see how quickly you could improve. Thanks for the video Tom!
Lots of phenomenal photos in this challenge! I had to pause quite a few times to get a longer look. The two in the last game from Turkey were especially gorgeous!
I saw someone once explain to a skeptic (who thought Rainbolt was cheating on his 0.1 seconds videos) how for Geoguessr pros, seeing a location is just like seeing a face. Within a split second, as a result of so much practice and training, they can automatically pull huge amounts of information. We don't think about it often, but to an alien it would probably be fascinating how you could see a picture of a face flash up for 0.1 seconds and could easily tell me the approximate age, gender, race, and even emotional state of the person you saw.
Great concept! I think a 1-2 second delay before the image, to separate it from the loading screen would be nice however. (Also thank you so very much for showing us the image for much longer!
As a mathematician, here are my calculations.
On the first round, you would need to get more than 1111 points to end up with 11111 on round three. Hence, the chance of doing so will be (5000-1111)/5000 * 100% = 77.8% (assuming that there is an equal chance of getting each score).
After the second round, you would need a minimum of 11111-5000 = 6111 points. Given that on the last round, you had to have somewhere between 1111 and 5000 points, that would mean that on round two you would need to have at least 1111 points (if you had 5000 on round one) and at most 5000 points (if you had 1111 on round one). Thus, we once again need to get more than 1111 points, giving us a chance of (5000-1111)/5000 * 100% = 77.8%.
Now, on round three, there is only one score you can get to achieve the total of 11111 points, so the chance of doing so will be 1/5000 * 100% = 0.02%.
If we now take all three rounds into account, we get that the chance for someone to get 11111 points after three rounds is equal to 0.778 * 0.778 * 0.0002 * 100% = 0.01210 %.
On GeoGuessr, I could only scroll down to 600th place on the leaderboards, so I'll assume that there were 600 people who played that map. We can see this as 600 independent experiments, with a chance of 0.01210% of success. Hence, we get that the chance for all people to get 11111 points on round three to be (0.0001210)^600 * 100% = (121^600)/(10^3598). This is astronomically small. On any calculator I tried, the result is 0. You would probably need thousands of zeros to portray it.
You can estimate (121^600)/(10^3598) as (10^601)/(10^3598) which comes out to 10^-2997, so yes a decimal with 2,996 leading zeros
Please make it a short series! Watching you improve your 10 seconds was such an exciting journey back in the days
having seen the first game so far, you're actually doing better than I expected. certainly better than I could do. Hopefully the next two are as fortunate
Yeah you did pretty well
@@vince8901 best 3 of 8 attempts, keep in mind
That's about the time it took me to click this video after it was published.
MORE OF THIS! Shocks me every time how good your videos are. True entertainer!
Love your content, these ' low effort ' vids are great! Do what makes you happy and your fans will be happy too!
Much love Tom! I started watching your videos in my dorm room 1st year of college and now I find myself watching you play geoguessr the day after graduating with my doctorate 7 years later. Pretty awesome!
Congratulations on your doctorate!
Definite mathematician here.
And it’s a 50/50 chance of everyone being on the same score.
Either they are, or they’re not. Therefore, 50/50.
You’re welcome, Tom!
i hope you don't work at nasa 😬
@@jlt131 No, I work at the math-place.
Is this an ohnepixel reference
@@ludvigsundby Nah, just maths.
your logic is correct that there are two outcomes, but they are not weighted equally ;)
"thats just me being shit" hahahahahah never gets old Tom.
You're still amazing. I never doubt you. I was here for the prime, the adventures. years. And we all know you're the legend .
This is still the most entertaining stuff to watch because i actually know you are full of endless knowledge.
Tom you weren’t recording!!!!!
so silly
pacefalm
Yeah I didn't see anything
Another really fun video. Though I do prefer your regular formats. So hyped for the England mission, SO HYPED
The last round game picture was way different than the street view and you were much harder on yourself than you should have been.
tbf it was definitely not where Tom clicked haha
Agreed. The angle and the lighting made it feel more deserty. Include the size of the roads and lack of buildings and it could easily be mistaken for America or Australia or (for me) Spain. I was just going off the plants and hills and cleanliness of the roads. When he looked at it on afterwards, it definitely looked more East-European/Asian.
sometimes when you check the location after guessing it will show newer coverage - in this case, the game displayed Sep 2022 coverage, but clicking on the location jumped to Jan 2024 coverage
Unique style of video, and I liked the pacing. Wouldn't mind seeing more of this style. Thanks Tom!
This was more fun than expected. But so freaking hard! Congrats and wp
Love seeing you play some of the new meta game modes! This was good fun
Watching your videos over my Playstation 4. And after every of your videos, I pick up my phone to open the RUclips app and comment on your stuff. Because it helps me receiving more good content
Bro i am living just to watch your videos,otherways i don't have any reson to be on this planet.
You are the best Tom! Thank you for your content.
yet another banger tom! loved the energy in this video. cant wait for the mission across england series coming! i know youve been working your socks off at editing it!! haha!! much love, megan + adum
I have aphantasia so I don't get a "print in my mind". That concept is so foreign to me haha. It's crazy to watch this! Good job with everything man, it's always impressive :)
always thought this style was interesting, sick to see your attempts at it as a viewer of yours for many years. keep being your awesome self
Please do a straight line mission/no money mission across Denmark in the summer. Lots of opportunities for boats, biking and so on.
i appreciate you putting the image back up after it flashes. i watch youtube on 2.5x speed and in some rounds i dont even see the original image.
commenting for the algorithm, but please do more challenges like this!! really enjoyable to watch.
This really switched up the style and pacing of your geo videos and im for it. But I enjoy all your vids, Thanks Tom.
Nice to see a good ‘ol Geoguesser video! Love your videos can’t wait till see next weeks!
Even if the guesses were wrong the latitudes were perfect. Crazy talent, keep it up!
This is what we've all been waiting for!
i don't know why this made me laugh so much but im glad that it did. gr8 work!
Excellent video as always, sir!
Like how you went right into the action, i see you're finally learning the youtube ways
Not sure if you noticed while editing, but the picture you were given in the final round, was different from the picture it showed you when you went back to check for yourself.
Thank you! I thought I was losing my mind
Tom, would love to see you continue to get better at geoguesser! Show us how you learn these things that people like Rainbolt and others use to know where they are so well. You are really good at this game and would love to see videos on you learning how to get even better.
Amazing how 0.1 seconds prints a full image in the head. Great job!
Love how you edited this one so we can see the flash of the image and then get a second peek while your thinking!
YES! Love these style vids. Defo more of this if possible.
yay a pro settings geoguessr vid! Love it! Please do more!
That was fun, Rusty Davies! I'd like to see you do as many 0.1's as you can on the clock, say in 1 minute. Score = proximity points + quantity. I think it'd make for entertaining practise and probably produce some fun Insane Guesses too 😎
Love getting back to the Geoguessr. Fun format, don't discount making vids for being rusty. I prefer watching your style of play.
Actually incredible the human eye and brain can get so much information from a photo in 0.1 seconds
Hey Tom! Just a tip for when you do this again. The very last round where you thought it was Vegas, you'll know its Vegas by the lane dividers. They don't use painted road lines here. Instead they use reflectors on almost every road. There are some remote undeveloped areas that still have painted lines though. Hope it helps!
This idea was actually really fun! I may give this a shot too! I got a few along with you!
I have aphantasia. So unfortunately, no, I don’t have a photograph in my mind when I close my eyes.
regardless of how well you did, this was quite fun
I've watched the other popular "pro" youtubers try this, and you are just so much more entertaining.
Looking forward to the next mission!
Just so you know, the round delay option is for it to have some time to load and for you to prepare so it doesnt flash up instantly when you load in, most people put it on 1 second
I'd definitely want to see more of this format
I’d love to see more of these videos!
I can’t believe he gets these from a 0.1 second flash of a bit of road. I mean - I do believe but it’s incredible. What a mint bloke
Geowizadd Find me I got a tricky place you’ll never find
2:10 - That must be amazing to be able to do. I have no minds eye (Aphantasia), so I've no comprehension of what you mean. I guess this type of challenge is a non started for me.
I blinked the exact moment the photo showed and thought it just failed to show up
13:45 - If there is any data regarding the score distributions, Id love to goof around with some cheeky geoMaths. Do you think GeoGuessr executives would be willing to share these information? Otherwise if anybody has access to any type of interesting GeoGuessr data please lmk and I'd love to share my findings with you all. Bless you and have a gorgeous day everyone!
and to answer your question in the video, if we assume the scores are normally distributed with mean 16000 (made it up but logic checks out((data i need))) and standard deviation of 2850 (derived from assumption of 90% of scores on the interval 7000 - 24000) I found that around 19% of the players will have a score of at least 11111 after the 3rd round. Furthermore if you assume 10 people were playing at the same time, the likelihood of everyone being above 11111 is 0.19^10 = 0.000000061 or less than 1/10000 of 1%. Obviously the more people you add and the stricter you are about the score boundary the lesser this percentage will become, so if we are looking at 100 people playing at a time with a score of exactly 11111 after round 3 (which itself will have a probability of less than 1/5000 for just 1 person) the chances become slightly smaller at (1/5000)^100 = 5 * 10^(-3000) which is 0.000...(around 2996 0's more)...5, which is still higher than the likelihood you will get laid tonight if you read all this. Cheers geofriends mwah.
@@helljank939this is the type of stuff I love. I was going to give a basic (1/15000)^number_of_players for round 3.
Need more of these
More of this challenge, really entertaining and interesting!
You did way better than I thought!
12:50 actually freaked me out a little bit lmao
Interesting format. Hope you play more Geoguesser.
I would like to see this again, but with move, pan and zoom on so you can really take your time and utilize your entire 0.1 seconds to view the area.
I played game 3 and got 18k. My first 4 guesses were pretty similar but I got Turkey somehow. Might've been because it reminded me so much of the third round, but I also picked up on the climate + road lines + divided highway
I got Kenya on my first try simply because it reminded me perfectly of the Top Gear Africa Special, with the tea plantations...and the hotel. Same with the road in Jordan, the Middle East Special.
Would love to see extended cut of this on patreon or something like that!
"happy with Mexico."
what a great video! do more of these:)
@12:08 I loved that, this Yorkshire person did.
Silly concept, you are surprisingly intelligent. Fair play its a like and sub from me 👍🏽
I really like your content, pleasee keep uploading
When you went back to the very last one it did look quite different from the sunny image in the actual round.
"Belgium. In between ... in some ways."
Loving the thumbnail 😂 looks like you've been kidnapped Tom !
Ahhhh. The best laugh of the day with the hat and shirt gag. 😂😂😂😂
Assuming an avg round's score of 2500 and a standard deviation of 1000, you have a 0.017% chance of getting a score of 11,111 after 4 rounds. Which is an estimation because the normal distribution is actually truncated but anyway... With N people playing, the odds of everyone having that score = 0.00017^N. So after 100 comments, there will be a 1 in 10^377 chance of everyone scoring 11,111. The observable universe has less than 10^100 atoms.
Thanks, i don't think the mu and sigma would be right for this situation but it is a fine estimation. One problem is that he played 3 rounds for that score, not 4.
Great video Tom, would be good if you could keep the screenshot on for longer, maybe just stick it above your face, because you’re talking about what you think you saw for a while after it’s gone, and it’d be good to be able to compare all of your thoughts with what was actually there 👍🏼
That was a fun format for sure.
Great vid Tom. Did much better than I would have. Maybe it's the ADHD but I can't remember anything from 0.1 seconds.
Definitely want to see this again, 22k would be cool!
I've been using (and investing in) Geovision AI and it's been really good. They plan to have a contest with some Geoguessrs soon. Can't wait to see who wins!
I had a 206. It was blue though. 1.4 turbo diesel, it did surprisingly well given the weight of my right foot haha
I love how Tom is just so much better than he expects
I would love to see zigzag & railbolt reacting to this, I want more of this!
I will do the maths tomorrow and send you an email.
Found that this was somehow easier the less time I thought and the more I relied on intuition. The longer the thinking, the more the image faded away from memory.