The Numbers Behind Neutron’s Demand (Rocket Lab)
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- Опубликовано: 26 ноя 2024
- Valuation models (including 2030 price targets)
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Earth-Venus Heliocentric Model
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Q: Has Rocket Lab considered need for further expansion of its Neutron launch facilities in the future, and if so, then what timeframe would this be implemented on?
Great video breaking down all the potential opportunities for Neutron. That explains PB's confidence in demand. Subject to development and reliability being ok, RL will fare really well this decade.
Superb analysis and wonderful insight. This certainlky explains the stock price action recently.
Great video. Thanks.
For those wondering why slow ramp up in launch rate. It takes time to apply modifications from lessons learnt on previous missions. May take 3-4 versions to get reliable recovery and reuse dialled in. In meantime early versions are expendable even recovered ones will be scrapped. Just look at Electron and F9 reuse development process.
My pick is operational reuseable booster will happen in 2027 after which flightrate can start ramping up.
To meet customer demand RL will build few of each version instead of putting everything on hold until next version is ready.
High quality assessment, great job. Can't wait to see the interview.
We know when Rocketlab is forecasting the first Neutron launch. I'd like to know when we will see the first fully-assembled Neutron (fairings, fins and all), which would have a great coolness factor and might well amp up interest and be a treat for investors and other fans. Installed Archimedes engines would not even be necessary at first. Just the complete stage one Neutron undergoing cryogenic testing, etc.
I was wondering the same thin. In order to get it ready for static fire you would think it needs several months in a fully assembled state
Thanks for the video.
Good luck with the interview.
Thanks Scott O! Great analysis as always.
Q: Is there any chance of RKLB being bought out by - say - someone with LOTS of capital and a need to launch bigly real soon? At a market cap of ~12Billion, that's pretty small change for some who might be struggling to get their own endeavors up to LEO. And sure, Pete can stay on for as much dosh as it takes...
(pure speculation on my part), but I think the largest shareholders currently wouldn't sell considering the enormous upside potential here.
Good job Scott 👍✌️✌️✌️
Great update and good luck with the interview 👍🔥💪
Nice video.
In the first few 2 years Neutron will ramp initially like electron, due to the learning curve / manufacturing ramp up. But Neutron will have far more demand than Electron (which slowed Electron ramp up) and also be reusable, so will ramp much faster after year 2. Definitely going to beat electrons record of fastest to 50 launches!! 😮
Thanks Scotto!
It’s interesting to see a South African (Elon Musk) v a New Zealander (Peter Beck) as rivals in the space industry. The two nations have a long history of rivalry on the Rugby field. A rivalry/relationship which became extremely political at times (think Invictus and beyond).
It would be awesome if we can get some more color on why they’re aiming for 1-3-5 cadence. I know SPB answered that during the earnings call but clarification on why specifically would be great. I heard on one of his recent interviews mentioning 3+, 5+ language now instead of just the 1-3-5 set numbers. Thanks for all your hard work
Thanks Scott O!
🤝
I would love to know from Peter how they're preparing for a tight launch schedule like Falcon 9 sees now. Over 100 launches a year - or even one every week. And if they're going to grow fast to that pace, how will they make sure they have enough experienced operators doing all the things necessary to have successful mission. What other locations will Neutron be launched from in the future?
Nice video!
Not a question but a comment for sir Peter beck. I think I would be pretty cool if they named the Venus life finding mission after Polynesian culture.
Good work Scott.
Question for Peter Beck. Is there plans for in orbit refuelling of Neutron and if so when will first test happen?.
NB with in orbit refuelling Neutron can compete for lot of the high performance missions.
5:15
Have you quantitatively modelled out how much demand you expect for neutron in the future?
Pretty easy to say this qualitatively, but what are the exact numbers!!
👏
great financial analysis ..good job scott. Let me know if youre in Dubai or Malaysia, will buy you a trip
Q to SPB: thinking of a 2nd Neutron pad, say in Kourou refurbishing the abandoned Roscosmos pad, to get near-equator access to all inclinations?
Great video Scott. When will be your next stream with Matt and Vince?
Hopefully soon 🤞
@@scotto2050 thank you for today's stream with the boys!
Scott, I don’t question the Demand-side you bring out; but, I do question the pricing being assumed. The marketplace will be Much more competitive from end of 2026 onward (I know, I’ve said this before; but, it will be….). Falcon 9s will be dumped on the market in a way they are Not now, when most of them- 70 flights a year or so- are used to launch Starlink minis; those all go away by end of 2026. SpaceX’s internal costs for a Falcon 9 are down to $15m (Quilty); refurbishing a F9 first stage is $1.5m (ArkInvest). Put yourself in Gwynne’s place: What would You charge for an F9 in the beginning of 2027, as lower-capability Neutron, Firefly, Relativity, Ariane 6 are on the scene? I’m honestly asking. Is she really going to let that Falcon 9 team- that is running at least at a 120 launches/year rate in 2026- just suddenly throttle way down? Why should she? - Dave Huntsman
SpaceX will still charge as much as the market will bear. Since SpaceX's price floor is so much lower than their competitors, they effectively have pricing power. So they'll set their price like a monopoly would, to maximize their profits. Since the demand for launch services seems to be relatively inelastic, that will still be a fairly high price. It'll probably be a price that allows some struggling competitors to remain in business, while SpaceX makes healthy profits.
@ That’s what I’m wondering; or, does she intentionally try to kill off some of the competition. Been known to happen.
Good luck for the interview scott.. How will RKLB meet such levels of demand?
Call me stupid. Why one launch in 2025? I want two.
Question I'd like to see answered (or perhaps he already did before):
Would Trump's proposed tariffs have any negative effects on Rocket Lab's business or not?
Thanks!
🤝 much appreciated, Gordon
Did you buy back your shares at a much higher price Scott?
I haven't averaged up, if that's what you're asking.
$RKLB still makes up 15-20% of my portfolio,
as it will continue to for the foreseeable future.
Thanks for watching 😎
@scotto2050 I thought you said in another video you sold most of your shares 🤔
Why would someone use neutron instead of falcon 9 with hundreds of successes ? The insurance alone
They won’t have to wait 2-3years to get their stuff to orbit.
@@mattmagilke2433 spacex will simply build more, in fact as soon as they start launching their starlinks in starship all the bandwidth of falcon 9 goes on the market and kills rocketlab
@@nunobartolo2908 Sorry, but I’m not buying your FUD. SpaceX is not killing Rocket Lab.
@ if they stick to their niche of small payloads on custom orbits maybe not but hey I need fools like you so I can short at these heights
@@nunobartolo2908 LOL… So now we know why you’re trolling all the RKLB content. Good luck with your short position.
Thanks!