All I can tell you is that as an Astros fan, when he came up in the WS last year, I have never been more terrified of an opposing batter in my entire life. Great hitter, legit bonkers power.
@@john_djr that´s funny, because by using analytics and taking emotion out of the equation, he should NOT inspire fear based on hishitting abilities, particularly in the postseason.
@@samuelperezgarcia exactly, and sports is inherently emotional. Some players are better at checking their emotions than others, but for a lot of pitchers, emotion plays a part. This further supports the dichotomy of Schwarber--sometimes his hitting style benefits him from a psychological standpoint, and other times not so much
@@samuelperezgarcia yeah, hitting with an otherworldly 1.317 OPS in last years NLCS and World Series isn’t fear-inspiring at all in the postseason 😂 (that was sarcasm, since you don’t seem intelligent enough to grasp that)
Yeah he was a spark plug for the title team for sure. I hate that the Cubs ditched him. I think he could be a better hitter and more productive than Dunn with just small adjustments in his approach.
as a phillies fan we also appreciate him. he is ryan howard. he will strike out but he will hit you 40 bombs a year, ill take the trade off especially when he gets hot. he starts desyroying the baseball
Schwarber was one of favorite all time Cubs. He looked like a fire hydrant when he broke into the bigs, then the injury that took him out of early in 2016. He worked his tail off to come back ,looking lean and mean for the Cubs 2016 post season run, including the World Series Championship. The only thing bigger then his bat is his heart. You go Scawrbs.
Their offense is centered around this man and Bryce. His .912 OPS since the all star break sounds pretty consistent to me. Especially as they gear up for the postseason. I get it. Walks don’t always come around to score but a walk is at least four pitches and a K is at least three. Having the guy at the top of your order see a lot of pitches has always had relevance in the game of baseball and realistically I’m not sure that toll on a pitcher is quantifiable. This team was designed to outhit their problems yet they quietly got faster, better defensively, and younger. Schwarber is here entirely for his OPS. If you want someone in the Phillies lineup that doesn’t strike out they have those too. Stott and Bohm are elite in K% and Whiff%; not to mention Schwarber’s 86th percentile chase rate. Team balance matters where as a player needs to play to their strengths. He was signed with the intention of splitting DH time with Cast. He was never a good defensive player at any point in his career and flipping a switch like that isn’t something you can just do especially after an ACL tear. Pretty trash take but hey at least you knew that if he ever loses his power he will lose his value. 🎉
I mean they went to the World Series his first year leading off for the Phillies, and here they are again back to the playoffs for the second time in over 10 years. Funny how so many people want to say it “doesn’t work”
@@CovChannelDon't know how this is news to you, but there are far more than 15 batters in MLB, so, no, not everyone is in the top 15. Only 15 (maybe a few more in case of ties at number 15) players are.
The psychological flow interruption of a long at bat or an early home run make him a valuable part of the lineup no matter where he is, but early game damage can force a team to wear out their bullpen (or overextend their arms if theyve run out of viable bullpen pieces). Hes versatile-ish and imposing, not the best offensive hitter in the game but definitely a notable one. A key playoff piece too.
Very good point, the mental tole he can take on a pitcher can't be measured but is a valuable part as well, but if a team Ks him a couple times do you think it does the opposite?
@@SmartrBaseball it definitely depends on the pitcher, but if he goes down in a 6-8 pitch AB in the beginning of the game, maybe revealing a release point or a sign tip, it can still have a more positive effect than say, a leadoff groundout or flyout
When it comes at the expense of good overall hitting, it's not necessarily a good thing as the feast or famine method of hitting can make it not so worthwhile.
@@carlwilliams9642 irrelevant. Over a large enough sample, almost no one has either bad or good 'situational' stats - there's a few outliers, but very few. One year a guy does great with RISP, the next year he does poorly (relative to his overall numbers). - that's just chance, basically.
It is fine to have one or two player like Schwarber in your lineup, but if you have any more than that your lineup will have problems moving runners and your offense suffers as a whole.
It’s obvious Schwarber has settled into that identity. His approach is simple: Wait for the perfect pitch and try to hit it out. this leads to SO and BB. If he wanted to, he could switch up his approach. But he figures it’s what he’s most successful at thus far.
He used to have this approach back in his days with the cubs. He used to shorten up when down in the count and his OPS+ was almost identical to now. I think he made the decision to wait for his pitch and swing out of his shoes. And honestly i see it as more valuable because those nukes he hits can be contagious and really spark an offense. Its up to the GMs to build teams the right way and if they have someone like Shwarber they need to build the right pieces around that. Having a team full or Shwarbers obviously wouldn't work.
He can definitely hit for a higher average at the cost of losing some walks and HRs. I think his game plan is to work the count and put as much stress on the pitcher as possible to set up other guys on his team like Harper. Good point about his base running though. He could really use a designated pinch runner
@@williamdiedrich3729 pitches per plate appearance is absolutely one of the more slept on stats, but in general that seems like it's one of the harder ones to equate to run production, since I don't see it in many of the big formulas.
Analytics doesn’t touch it, or at least I don’t think it does, but Kyle is a culture guy. The attitude he brought with him as a winner and leader helped bring the team out of its losing ways. He’s teaching these guys what it means to play the right way. Bryce is here sure, and he’s a great example to follow. But now it’s a culture, not just one guy.
Best argument I've seen. Too many people trying to defend him statistically, when it really can't be done. But I totally agree with your take. I'm not a Philly fan, don't watch them much... But it is obvious he impacts the teams attitude in a positive way.
As a Phils fan I fully endorse Schawrbs and his OBP role in back to back playoff seasons. He should not be playing the field but he has done well enough in LF this year not to embarrass himself. We have to keep in mind that playing defense decreases his value but he's doing so in 2023 out of necessity after Rhys's knee exploded. The main downside I will abide is the base running. Leading him off neutralizes Trea in many instances.
The simple fact of the matter is that a ball in play is an out at least 66% of the time. A walk is an out 0% of the time. Outs are bad for an offense. It amazes me that people still miss the point of the focus on OBP. Simply take any baseball situation. Runners on whatever bases and any amount of outs. A batter not making an out ALWAYS increases the expected runs in an inning. Making outs almost always decreases the expected runs per inning.
I agree with your point overall of course but a slight nitpick: balls in play are outs at least 66% of the time but Bryce Harper hit .437 on contact (including homers) in 2015. Looking at babip discards a lot of the best contact a player makes.
Max Muncy is the same deal but in the end both these guys carry a good OPS so if I were just looking at those numbers I'd be pretty pumped to have them on my team.
@@SmartrBaseballas opposed to the more "balanced" hitters who get singles instead of walks, and get groundouts instead of strikeouts, and somehow don't mAkE yOu CrInGe despite producing exactly the same level of offense?? if they produce a lot of runs they're good lol. simple as that
He’s like the character with a high atk stat but has 0 dexterity and speed making him have bad aim. But if he lands the hit, he will do massive damage.
Which means the accumulative damage over some stretch of time would be higher for someone with less atk but higher dexterity and speed, even though the damage on a single hit is not going to be as high
I think it would be useful to look at Schwarber as a hitter compared to, say, Adley Rutschmann. Schwarber has a slightly higher OPS but AR gives you much higher avg around .280, fewer HR at 19, fewer walks at 89and slightly WRC+ at 124 so far versus Schwarber’s .196, 45, 124, and 119. I think in most lineups, having AR at the top of the lineup is overall better than having KS. But that’s just a gestalt/gut feeling. I think the higher WRC+ supports that, though.
Another good example is a guy like Adolis Garcia. We know he’s a better defender, but from a pure hitting perspective, he’s on about the same level of power as Schwarb, draws less walks but still strikes out less often and has a slightly higher OPS. He gets on base less often but still has more hits, Less home runs, only trailing by 8, and a higher SLG. Also, those 9 stolen bases look much better than 0, especially from a guy who isn’t exactly known for his speed. (Baseball Savant has him ranked in the 50th percentile, and Schwarber in the 5th 😭) Their roles on offense are quite different, but if i had choose, its Adolis everyday. They’re the same age, but AG’s numbers and obvious defensive value trumps KS’s near identical power.
@@whywhy3289 Doesn't mean BA should be neglected however, if you don't hit that often you will have more trouble moving the runners in a more critical time. The guy gotten out far too many times that it dragged down the OBP given by walks.
I think not every hitter needs to be "balanced" but every lineup should strive to be. Schwarber is an interesting case, I definitely think he's a limited hitter but that's not a bad thing necessarily. I think you can't have too many Three True Outcomes guys in your lineup to be an efficient unit.
True, to really make it work the line up needs to have the kind of hitters to help support the high risk type batter. It's still ideal to have good contact hitters around the guy rather than having a line up filled with swinging for the fences kind of players.
Great point. The Phils lineup really is diverse and balanced. They can abide Schwarber at the top when more good OPS+ guys of different styles are hitting behind him. The bottom of their lineup has also been a high contributor this season. It has turned the lineup over and given a chance for Kyle to get his RBI numbers where they are.
@@deepzone31 It can also depends on Bryce Harper as well, adding more potency to the line up whenever the guy's healthy. Granted Harper's injury problems isn't as bad as Stanton's but it can get pretty concerning for the team.
Just look at the “Where are they now?” Cubs 2016 core. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, and Schwarber, combined, without a few good contact hitters, is what led to the demise of that team.
If you believe in WAR (which not everyone does), he's really not that good. His current bWAR is only 0.6. Compare that to, say, Phillies bench player Cristian Pache (0.8 bWAR in only 84 PA, vs. Schwarber's 709 PA). In theory, if the Phillies played Pache all the time over Schwarber, they'd be much better off. Though that seems hard to believe. In Schwarber's defense, he's only in this situation due to Harper's injury forcing him to play outfield. If he was just DHing, his WAR would look decent. Though still not meriting a $20M salary.
He had 2.7 offensive WAR. That is as a LF. As a DH it would be lower because of the DH penalty in the stat. I believe, with that, his WAR as a DH would be about 2.5 or 2.6 Not a BAD season necessarily but far from a good one. I don't argue that he's not valuable in his way, and as a DH he, despite lower WAR, is more valuable simply because he's not actively hurting your ability to prevent runs being scored. I'm not one of those who say you need to hit .300 to be good, but sub .200 is just a bridge too far for me. And 210+ strikeouts is awful. If you strike out around that many times, you gotta be like Aaron Judge, and come through in the times you don't strike out more often. This year also was an outlier for walks with him. Has 125 or so and previous high was around 40 fewer. That's the only thing that saved his OBP. He's at .344 I believe. If he didn't have those 40 extra walks, his OBP is down around .300 or lower, and that is atrocious.
@@snerdterguson Schwarber's OWAR is 2.8. That's pretty good, though definitely not as good as you would think with a .345 OBP and 47 HR. But that means his defensive value is absolutely horrendous. -2.0. Without a doubt, he is the DH to end all DHs. You simply CANNOT put him in the field. As for those extra walks, it appears like they were by design. His batting average went down 20 points, but his OBP went up 20 points. It's a good tradeoff that I'd take in a second. And then there's the post-season. You'd think he would be the kind of hitter that would suck in the post-season. But he's been really good. .371 OBP and 15 HR. And even AVG is at .242. So, I'd say he's overall a a really good player. The biggest problem with him wasn't even mentioned. He clogs up the DH spot.
@@jakes3799 it’s a horrible trade off. Why do people think getting a walk is equal to getting a hit? It literally is always better to get a hit. Runners can move more than one base in a hit, a hit creates the chance for a bad throw. Trading batting average for walks is absolutely counterproductive.
@@snerdterguson But it wasn't a one-to one tradeoff. If the OBP was the same and the AVG went down, that would be a one-to-one tradeoff and then yes, it would be couterproductive. But adding 20 points to your OBP in exchange for a loss of 20 points of AVG? That's a massive increase in the number of times on base. That is DEFINTELY worth it. Sure, a walk is not equal to a single, but the difference between the two is not massive. Yes, runners can move more than one base on a single, but often don't, unless the runner is on 2nd. If the majority of game situations involved a single with a guy on 2nd, then a single would be much more valuable since the runner usually scores from 2nd. But the most frequent occurrence is when the bases are empty or when there is a guy on 1st. When the bases are empty, a single is actually sometimes less valuable than a walk because fewer pitches are usually thrown. That means the pitcher expends less energy and the bench has fewer pitches to examine b/c fewer pitches were thrown. When there is a guy on 1st, a single is often no better than a walk b/c usually the guy on 1st only goes to 2nd. Occasionally he might move to 3rd but not often. Additionally, there is always the chance of an error, which also helps the value of a single. Still, those factors combined do not happen often enough to make an increase of 20 OBP points a bad thing when 20 AVG points are lost. Not even close.
The problem with modern baseball is that everyone takes the same approach to hitting as Schwarber. It is great to have a couple pure power hitters in your lineup like Schwarb, but too many guys with warning track power are swinging for the fences, striking out a lot and not moving anyone around. MLB needs more guys like Mark Grace - line drive hitters who don’t strike out and don’t try to hit the cover off the ball every pitch. They move runners around the bases, have a good to great batting average and OBP. I know I am old school, but the power hitters from the 50’s through 70’s generally had a much better approach, especially with two strikes. They shortened up and put the ball in play more. Just look at their batting averages compared to today’s power hitters. Today’s hitters could learn a lot by looking at the old school players and maybe, just maybe dump this Sabre metrics BS approach. Too many guys taking big swings with big misses…
I agree, just one guy like this in your lineup is okay though. The other 8 should have a different approach if the one guy is always going to the plate with this strategy. Schwarber is that guy for the phils
in 1963, mlb teams collectively scored 3.95 runs per game and hit 246. in 2021, mlb teams scored 4.53 runs per game and hit 244. hitters focus on walks and home runs because they score runs lol. analytics work. if the old power hitters had a "better" approach, why didn't they score as many runs? folks take the new school approach because it works
@@Ben-oi6kz watered down pitching…. Twice as many teams. Pitching is the most difficult talent to find…. Pitchers can’t even finish games today. Bad pitching means more runs. Also, juiced baseballs. Besides, I was talking about power hitters. Guys like Mays, Yastrzemski, Mantle, Williams and Banks. Look at their numbers - HR, batting average and OBP compared to today’s sluggers.
@@myronlarimer1943 Not to mention he chose the year where the pitching mound was raised and the strike zone got wider, later setting the stage for pitchers' era that led to 1968.
@@myronlarimer1943 pitchers only finished games back then bc they weren't throwing as hard. the average fastball has gone from 88 mph in 2002 to 93 mph in 2019. we don't have accurate data from 1930 but it stands to reason it was even lower than 88. in his first mvp season in 56, mantle hit 37 homers and hit 306. this year, acuna has 41 homers and is hitting 336. and again that's against better pitching. players are getting better, not worse
He talks about analytics like they’re pulled from thin air, that is not the case, they’re derived directly from on field play. So when he says on field play has to matter, it’s literally all that matters. If he wants to have a situational hitting conversation that’s different.
@@iamhungey12345 every hitting style is feast or famine. You either get out or you don't. If Homer or K is feast or famine what's single or double play?
@@BrightHornet936 Not to the point of going for homer or nothing bud. No offense but you're making a really stupid argument that is basically one extreme over the other.
He is very similar to Giancarlo Stanton. NY can't get rid of him and no one will take him. The difference between both is Giancarlo can't stay healthy. Miss the days when a really good hitter would hit .290 or better, 25+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and strike out less than how many hits they'd have in a season. The 80s and 90s had a collection of the best pure hitters in my opinion.
The fan’s’ perspective counts, he’s very much appreciated in Philly. Nevertheless, Kyle is on a perfect team to make his positives outweigh his obvious deficiencies. Quite the Anatoly indeed. Excellent commentary 👍 One thing you didn’t include is his spot in the lineup: lead off…rather incredible he maintains that spot . But they are winning !
It's all about team construction. You want to build a balanced lineup. A team full of Shwarbers would be a PHENOMENAL offense. However, they'd have less chance of winning a 7 game series than an equally potent offense with more balance. That's the point. The stats are 100% correct. His value is real. The middle ground isn't really about players. It's about team construction. Still a team sport.
My biggest issue with the true outcome approach is that it discounts the value of getting on base and ignores so many factors that define if an atbat were “good” and all the non-true outcomes that are still solid at bats. A 9 pitch strikeout against an ace where you keep alive with foul balls is way better than striking out in 3 pitches cause you wanted a homerun. In a lot of situations, you don’t want a true outcome guy either. If you are back by four runs, you want your lead off guy to work pitches and start a rally. Often whether it’s a single or a double or a homerun isn’t even that major. 2 outs, runner on second and third. You have a two run lead, you don’t need to swing for the fences. It discounts for how important a single can be with a good base runner. You affect the pitcher’s motion, have someone cover second and/or first to open up allies. If the infield is in, don’t try for a homerun if you don’t need to. Hit it past the third baseman. The point is,production shouldn’t mean home runs. I don’t really watch non-Orioles teams. I know how much a team can miss pure HR hitters after we had Davis, Machado, Jones. But a lot of absolute studs like Adley and Gunnar aren’t going to lead the league in HRs. But I’d argue they are more valuable than Schwarber because they get on base often, that makes the pitcher have to reassess. Getting on base means the pitcher faces one more batter, that runs up pitch counts. It’s huge in a four game series where you face their ace. To me, reducing a batter to true outcomes is like assuming “arm talent” makes a pitcher good. Because control, calmness and every other factor come into play too
your point is you'd rather have a single than a home run because if you're down by 4 runs a single is more likely to start a rally?? but you inexplicably wouldn't be happy with a walk for the same reason? mfs be tying themselves in knots to oppose analytics lol
Kyle Schwarber is 6th in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance. So he's not striking on three pitching swinging for the fences. He is very patient and sees more pitches that almost anyone in the league.
@@Ben-oi6kzOPS is not an advanced metric at all, it's literally adding 2 unrelated numbers with different denominators together. But that's what players are judged by so the best bet is just swing hard
@@PhantomofDB the r2 correlation coefficient between ops+ and wrc+ is 0.992. its not intuitive that adding obs and slg would be a good metric but in fact it is
@@Ben-oi6kz Is it really? At the individual level or team level? Not doubting you, but if that is true at the individual level, that is really amazing. I just figure, OPS is an easy starting point. You can get into more nitty gritty with things like RC if you want, but you are going to get most of the big picture with OPS.
Analytics is why we now the have the shift rule. Hitters didn't go the opposite way to break the shift because they lacked the skill. They ended up hitting into the shift because swinging for the fences has more value according to the analytics.
Runs wins games and he accounts for a lot of them. I can hit all day but if I don’t score myself or another who cares. It’s why we see NBA 3 point happy and NFL pass happy. Sure he should be higher BA but he gets runs
I came up with my own stat, called BOA (or BOBA, Bases over Average, needs a rename). It’s a measure of a batter’s eye and power, independent of batting average. Easiest calculation for this is OPS minus (2*BA) [or OBP+ISO-BA] because batting average is a large component of both OBP and Slugging. Like BA, a very good BOA is .300. A BOA of .400+ is elite. MLB’s average BOA this season is .239. The red-billed Schwarbler is somewhere around .440 ! 😮
Batting him leadoff is probably a big negative vs. batting him in a spot where he comes up with more guys on base. The one plus is less GIDP but if by batting him 3-4-5 and good OBA guys ahead of him may have him batting with more runners on base and maybe even making pitchers more reluctant to walk him giving him better pitches to hit. Also he probably clogs the bases so putting him in front of any speed guys is a mistake. His RC seems pretty consistent around 118ish so maybe it wouldnt change much but that is my 2 cents he is above avg offensively and a defensive liability and a slow base runner. Edit: Amazingly he has hit into only 4 GIDP's and has just a .211 BBIP compared to a league avg of .296. 50 years ago I would have just eaten up all these numbers so I would know some reasons why other than to say he hits lots of fly balls right where you would expect and is as slow af
@@prolix64 his OBA is above average your leadoff hitter unless he is a big power threat should be your best OBA guy. Closer to .400 not .340. What makes him better at leadoff than say #2?
Points I didn’t see you mention: 1. Striking out is better than grounding into a double play 2. Striking out/walking causes the pitcher to have a higher pitch count, causing him to leave the game earlier. **** I’ve flip-flopped on my opinion on Schwarber. I hate 3 true outcome baseball (give me Kenny Lofton!) but Schwarber is so entertaining to watch. Because when he does hit one ….. holy shnikes.
The bigger problem is Rob Thomson's terrible decision to bat Schwarber lead-off. This has resulted in Schwarber only having 100 RBI - he'd be around 120 batting 3rd in the lineup behind Marsh and Harper. He gets on 1st with a walk and then clogs the bases. With Marsh and Harper hitting in front of him, he would turn a lot of solo homers into 2 runs instead.
Yeah that would probably help making his shortcomings in his batting somewhat more tolerable if the guy can do well in critical situation but what's the word on his batting in the lower part of the line up?
AND Trea Turner, one of if not the fastest player on the phillies bats right behind him and just slows him down, preventing him from going 1B to 3B more than once
They did move him down in the lineup a few games as an experiment, but he didn't hit at all, and they had to move him mback up. The object of making him the leadoff hitter is to get him additional at-bats over the course of the season, so he has more chances to hit home runs. Of course he also has more chances to strike out. He's over 200k's for this season.
I would bat him lower in the lineup because he would hit would more people on base and also won't hit into double plays, then I would put somebody who mashes left handed pitchers behind him
the problem with analytics is people who don't use analytics properly/enough and come to poor conclusions because of it. Everything you say about Schwarber can be seen pretty easily with stats, both analytical and counting. It's just that instead of coming up with a more complex answer, people just want to know if a player is good or bad. Simply saying "he does these things well and these things poorly and this is how players who are similar tend to progress through their careers" would be enough to use analytical stats properly. Without these analytics, Schwarber would probably not be on a team because his BA is too low. Instead, we know just how good he is and when it's best to use him.
He would still be on a team, and probably starting. Teams were putting Dave Kingman out there day in and day out . The Phillies were throwing Steve Jeltz out there for 300-400 at bats a year for a 5 or 6 year stretch for goodness sakes. You don't need analytics to go.."gee, he walks a ton, hits a ton of homeruns and strikes out a lot..guess that's what he brings to the table."
This, the issue is that people would focus on one thing and go extreme towards it. Plus there are instances where managers would make decisions based on analytics and backfires...with irony being that their decisions actually went the opposite of what analytics would call for (ex: What Kevin Cash did in 2020 WS).
I don't think a player not focusing on the weaknesses of their game is analytics fault. If you've described anything, it's about how Schawrber is a flawed hitter and fans over value his stats in some cases.
Well bottom line is, in the 2 years he's been playing in Philly they've made the playoffs (and world series) with him in the lead-off role. He's clearly a large part of their success and if we're simply to judge on a results oriented basis; he's clearly very good.
Large part lol he's the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Take schwaber off the team and replace him with any other teams leadoff and they're in the same place or better
I really appreciated this video. My input would be Shwarber is good if he can avoid playing the field as much as possible, soley DH and has a decent team around him ... if he were on the Tigers or Royals, with their large, not home run friendly stadiums, he may not fair so well, especially if he had to play defense in those parks ... Regardless of my hypotheticals he is an interesting player to profile and even more difficult to define. Good video, i just subscribed!
For schwarber I know how powerful he is, but to get two out rallies going he has to try to hit for a little more average. I think a good combo of power and average is Matt Olson who has a league leading 53 long balls and slashes 0.281/0.389/0.604
Juan Soto also fits the mold as well, like Olson he also fits the definition of a "three true outcomes" player who also bats decently for a more rounded hitting.
Yep. This is a big factor into things for me. You don’t always need a HR, a double to start a two out rally or to bring in that lead off runner that got stranded for two outs is a big part of baseball. You don’t need a HR to have a positive outcome. Once you are on base, the pitcher has to worry about you. OBP is really slept on
@@uhm7293 Exactly, people need to realize it doesn't have to be one extreme over the other but often time there would be idiots who thinks wanting someone to bat for even a decent average means you want the player to hit for just singles.
@@iamhungey12345 yep. Statistically speaking, hitting a Homerun is one of the hardest thing to do across major sports. In football, 20 goals in a season is a benchmark measuring a good striker and is hit regularly. That’s roughly 0.5 goals a game. That’s often enough to be in a golden boot race. In Football; a WR can catch a whole bunch of touch downs. But even then it’s a different type of sport cause others can get the TD and still be a good outcome. In baseball; 40 homeruns, maybe 50 is the benchmark. The best ever has been 70 homeruns and that’s with steroids. On average, 50 homeruns is insanely productive. So that’s like a homerun every 3 or so game. And you need a lot of stars to align with the right pitch, right location, right ballpark. The thing with power hitters is that if you put them in the playoffs in a ballpark with a deep wall and that affects a lot. You don’t want your best players to work that way
@@uhm7293 Plus it also helps to have good contact hitters in front to help set up for the power hitters. That's where they can potentially do real damage and with a runner on, the pitcher will have to think.
Dude has 124 BB. Lets pretend he had 30 less lead-off walks and instead they were 30 singles. He would still be tied for 4th in MLB with 94 BB (having a chance at 100, if he plays to end the year). He would also have a 0.250 BA, with the same SLG and OPS. There would be none of this conversation, but there would be no change at all in game outcome. So what does it really matter? Obviously, a bit contrived to say only lead-off walks change, but the point stands. Plus, Kyle is top 5 in pitches per PA. Unmentioned positive trait in your leadoff guy. Only way he is giving a short first AB is if it ends with a HR.
This video demonstrates why Schwarber in the leadoff spot is perfect for him. He's obviously not the prototypical lead off guy, but the whole "you cant move a guy to third by walking" argument is completely negated by the fact that as a lead off guy there isn't anyone on base TO move over. The impact of a strikeout in that situation is guarenteed to be negligable, and has the same impact as a ground out or pop fly.
Exactly. Conversely, if you have blazing speed like Volpe but are either homer or strikeout you are not helping the team because your speed is totally wasted.
He's top 20 in baseball in runs scored. You don't have to be good at baserunning to score runs. It's better to be good at baserunning than not be good at baserunning, sure! And sure, 45 of his runs scored are from him hitting home runs. But where'd the other 80 come from? He must have gotten on base, right?
That's what helped fuck up the team to begin with, remember Gallo? Never mind it was a recent thing the Yankees has gotten into but shouldn't to begin with. Here's hoping Volpe takes the next step forward next season.
People need to stop acting like strikeouts are a good thing. It’s the worst out in baseball, putting the ball in play is far more valuable out always will be. So in conclusion yes he’s analytics taken too far much like gallo was before he got traded to the Yankees.
Someone's never heard of grounding into a double play. Putting the ball isn't ALWAYS far more valuable. Ks aren't good and no one pretends they are, but they aren't nearly as bad as batting average-obsessed want to believe, either
a groundout is worth about 0.06 runs, while a strikeout is worth 0. a walk is worth about 0.69. so in 100 AB, if another hitter grounded out 23 times that schwarber struck out, schwarber would only need to draw 2 extra walks to make up for it. that's a bet he's happy to take
This video is the definition of the "Wow, I didn't know that. You're telling me know for the first time," meme. I expected you to actually talk about some problems with analytics and instead you just summarized the analytics to explain something everyone already knows. Schwarber is a power hitter who homers, walks, and strikes out a lot.
I think he can be very effective as he is. All players have strengths and weaknesses, and that's sort of what the lineup order is meant to do. Put players in positions where their strengths can shine. Which is why it baffles me that the Phillies insist on having Schwarber bat lead off. No matter how hard he hits it, there's no way for him to get more than 1 run the first time he comes up to bat. And if he walks, he's now clogging up the base paths so Trea Turner can't use his speed. I feel like if they played Trea Turner lead off and Kyle Schwarber 2nd, they would have had at least 5 more wins then they currently do. And Schwarber would probably have way more RBIs.
What feels different about Schwarber is that he gets those homeruns or walks when you really need them. He's not just hitting a bunch of homeruns when they don't matter. But that's just the eye ball test, I don't have any analytics to back it up haha. I think we are seeing more contact hitters come into the league though.
I think this perfectly explains why he's been so valuable for the Phillies. The advanced analytics don't look as impressive as watching him play and seeing those clutch hits or him being the only guy to drive in runs for a particular game
Walks are station to station. Your not moving runners around like you do if you make contact. Yeah your getting on base but if every person in your lineup did what he did your offense is complete trash
I just wish they would move him down. He’s got a chance to be much more productive with runners ahead of him rather than clogging up the base paths ahead of guys like Trea and Bryce.
Imagine all the baseball IQ that will be lost as we progress to this "three outcome" format of baseball. Less balls in play, less baserunning, less situational baseball will provide less opportunity for players to develop that B-IQ
What baseball IQ is at risk? If situational baseball isn't efficient, then what's the loss? I mean no one knows how to do the Baltimore chop anymore, but who cares?
@@dawgbone98That tactic is only useful for a tiny amount of players. Sacrificing outs is usually a bad idea and it's proven with expected run tables. In high-scoring environments, it's pointless a lot of the time. Look how the Braves won today. A homer in the ninth to tie the game, then in the tenth: a ground out moving the runner to third, hard single opposite field, stolen base, and another hard single to right to win. Analytics has made this year's Braves one of the most deadliest offenses in history, and they don't just hit homers all the time.
I really like this video - tho why I think Kyle Schwarber is just a good hitter though is because he's responsible for nearly 21% of the Phillies runs scored this year. I wont argue that base hits are preferred to walks when guys are on base, but for a guy that walks as much as he does, on top of the high home run numbers, the opportunities he creates for the team provide incredible value for an offense like the Phillies that are going to be able to take advantage of those opportunities
His ability to run matters less when he has players like Harper hitting behind him. He doesn't need to run if Harper, or Turner or any number of other power threats behind him hits a home run. The Phillies are using him in a way that makes his downsides sting less, he just needs to get on and someone behind him has the power to do something big.
If Schwarber is a valuable hitter, simulate how many runs a team would score if they played 9 of him. Important - how many games would that Schwarberx9 team score 3 runs or less? They'll lose most of those. Yes, they'll have quiet a few 10+ run blowouts. That boosts the mean score. But you don't win two games when you score 12 runs. I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER but there's enough simulations out there that it should be easy to test. I'm not saying the 9 Schwarbers should all be terrible fielders. Assume the fielders are average. We're testing offensive consistency, not defense
I just did this simulation and the all schwarber team would score ~5.9 runs per game (would be #1 in the league) and averages ~41 games per 162 game season scoring less than 4 runs (only the Braves this year have fewer such games). Shockingly a team that averages a homerun every 15 plate appearances (aka a game with less than 2 homeruns is unusual) scores a lot of runs
@@dz_ssbm Thanks! 120 games with 4 or more runs. do you have the distribution of those games? As in, how many 4 run games, how many 5 run... You could lump 8 and up into one slot.
And, when you are drawing walks because you are being pitched around it's going to mean that more of your home runs are going to be in situations where they don't pitch around you. Yes, sometimes that will be when the bases are loaded in the bottom of the ninth, but a .300 hitter is much more dangerous when you've got 2 outs and a runner on third than a .200 hitter who walks a lot, and a guy who can walk a lot is much more valuable when he's got wheels. I think it's harder to conceptualize the effect of an all or nothing approach on offense than it is an all or nothing defense. If I told you I had a pitcher with a 5 ERA over his last ten games you'd probably skip drafting him... but what if he had 5 complete game shutouts and 5 complete games where he let up 10 runs. What would you expect his W/L record to be? He's probably going to be 5-5. If I tell you I have an offense that scored 50 runs over the last 10 games, you are going to think they are doing well... but if they got shut out 5 times and scored 10 runs 5 times, chances are they are 5-5. Teams that can manufacture runs are almost never going to get shut out. If you have a team that can score 5 runs a game you would much rather that they consistently score 5 runs than being feast or famine. A team that alternates between being shutout and scoring 10 runs every other day is going to be around .500, regardless of their pitching. A team that scores exactly 5 runs every game is going to be one of the better teams in the league (this year that would put them 8th in offense).
Back in the days when the Bill James abstract was relatively unknown and considered baseball blasphemy to some, we played Status-Pro baseball. I coined the term Howard Johnson player to refer to players that seemed to do better than one would think they did. I used the (what is now known as slash line) stats .250/.350/.450 to compare players. Incidentally HoJo had career averages .249/.340/.446. Using this made it easier to rate players like Schwarber who has career slash of .227/.340/.492. Even with a BA of .227 this is still 9 points over the HoJo line.
you'd end up with brent rooker, (245 avg, 29 hr this season), who has an ops of 813, compared to schwarbers 812. you'd score exactly the same number of runs
@@hb-robo Player who hits for high average would have good OBP as well bud. Plus the batters you prefer would also have highest strikeout rate to go along with their walk rate.
He really doesn’t need to be great at moving people over from the leadoff spot. That spot needs to get on base. He does that well. The Phillies are taking the possible leadoff home run but will settle for the walk. They’re happy to his power to mop up the bottom of the order. Or walk. The only plus side of striking out is you don’t hit into many dp. It’s worked out nicely for them
A garbage batting average, yes. But there’s a reason BA’s value as a stat is at an all-time low and will continue to get lower. Overall, he’s a mid to low end power hitter that can give you some high counting stats like HR’s and RBI.
batting average has rebunded a bit this year tho thx to the rule changes THe league average 2023 is .250 2022 was 243 so theres been an increase this year Yea he be getting high stats homeruns walk and rbis wise Do you see him as a valuable player on his team because if i am being honest I am unsure how to completely feel about a player like this because yes he walks he drives in rbis and hits homers but he also only hits 196 @@sendAJtospace
@@masonmalaguti3463 Plus if one hits a decent average to go along with power and walks, that would have more value than those who couldn't bat at the Mendoza Line.
Thank you for this explanation. Started watching MLB again this season after more than a decade. I know different stats are more important now, but the Schwarber lead-off thing was completely baffling
You didn’t see a lot of people in 80s and early 90s pitchers throwing 98-100 pitches. Would like to hear from an old time player if this is affecting hitters nowadays with almost every pitcher throwing 98-101 and a few 105. It just seems extremely hard to hit
Pitchers aren’t throwing 98-101 if measured by the 1980s and 90s standards. These would more likely be registered at 94-97, maybe 95-98 back then. That’s been well documented and backed up by tons of former players who are current coaches/managers.
The purpose of offense in baseball is to score runs. All you need to evaluate any player's effectiveness is to add the number of runs he scores to the number of his RBIs, and then (to avoid double counting) subtract his home runs. For Schwarber this year that's 108 + 104 -47 = 165. Now, you need to compare that number to the league average to determine his value as an offensive player.
6:10 a lot... this has been studied to death, tbh, so it's not really debatable that it's valuable. now if you fill your lineup w/guys like this, it's probably a bad idea, but 1-2 guys like that on a team isn't bad
Another thing you can't really measure or explain is Schwarber's impact on wins and losses when he leads off for the Phillies. It's something Rob Thomson has talked about all season, "When Kyle bats leadoff for us, we win more games" ... .198 average and almost as many singles as homeruns doesn't sound like a winning formula at the leadoff spot... but it works for this team somehow lol
It wasn’t analytics that caused batters to focus on home runs - it’s the dramatic rise in velocity from pitchers. The easiest way to score a run is to pull a fly ball into the outfield seats. Ball go far, team go far.
I feel like the reason it works is because guys like Stott and bohm and now turner even him out by being more contact first hitters. Personally I don’t like three true outcome hitting especially in the lead off spot but it works for my Phillies
this analytics age blows my mind. It doesn’t take into account the human factor. It you put the ball in play, it puts pressure on the fielder to make the out. A base runner adds more pressure. Analytics don’t take into account situations. an out in the first is different than in the 9th
I mean we’ve seen this before analytics was really big. Adam Dunn had a couple seasons of 40 home runs and low average. One year he batter like .207 but had 40+ home runs and got to play most of the season. I don’t remember him stealing bases either. Idk why his average is so low this year but what he did his year still makes him more than just an average hitter. He had over 100 runs as well which is tough to do when you bat .198
i think in the NBA there's probably some proprietary stats to measure hustles and diving for loose balls. maybe that's what baseball needs (yes, more numbers) to measure situational hitting, hitting on the other way on purpose, high IQ running like taking the extra base stuff (which you can be sure Schwarber doesn't do). unless that's already measured somewhere
Tbh you're ultimately just begging sabermetricians to come up with new stats and new insights. There are people who just love baseball, and don't care anything about analytics. There are people who care about analytics and don't care anything about baseball. But most of us are somewhere in between, and I don't think any of these are a bad place to be. We are who we are, and for me, if there's a competitive edge in something (particularly if it's legal!😂), I wanna know about it, I wanna quantify it, or otherwise I won't be able to repeat it.
Agreed, which is why I can't see re-signing or extending him to a superstar contract. Offer him Schwarber's contract, and if he doesn't accept the offer trade him.
I'll add a couple more stats. He is 11th in the NL in RBIs with 101 and 7th in runs scored with 107. 46 of those RBIs and runs are himself because of the homers, so somebody else knocked him in 61 times and he drove in 55 other runners. As much as I hate to say a guy with a sub-.200 average is a good hitter, he scores and knocks in runs. Still, you do have to think if he was hitting even .240 he would be challenging Acuna for MVP because he would be first or second in RBIs, runs, and HRs.
Batting .190 at the leadoff spot is hilarious. Almost as many HRs as singles this year. Love schwarber, never change
😭🤣
He's out-Dunning Dunn
Seems counterintuitive, but you should probably maximize plate appearances for a HR hitter of that magnitude.
@@ThatGovrnmntBoy His OPS+ is 122, pretty good but nothing special from a DH
Also 2nd in the league in walks which means he reached 1st base safely 155 times this season @@ThatGovrnmntBoy
Power without patience is nothing. Patience is a virtue and Kyle has mastered it for the good and bad.
You can say he got the best and worst in the same sphere.
All I can tell you is that as an Astros fan, when he came up in the WS last year, I have never been more terrified of an opposing batter in my entire life. Great hitter, legit bonkers power.
The fear he strikes in opposing teams is something you can't measure with advanced analytics! ..... Not yet, anyway....
@@john_djr that´s funny, because by using analytics and taking emotion out of the equation, he should NOT inspire fear based on hishitting abilities, particularly in the postseason.
@@samuelperezgarcia exactly, and sports is inherently emotional. Some players are better at checking their emotions than others, but for a lot of pitchers, emotion plays a part. This further supports the dichotomy of Schwarber--sometimes his hitting style benefits him from a psychological standpoint, and other times not so much
Hopefully we will have a rematch. Beat those damned Twins and Rangers/Orioles while we beat the Braves and Dimondbacks/Dodgers so it can happen.
@@samuelperezgarcia yeah, hitting with an otherworldly 1.317 OPS in last years NLCS and World Series isn’t fear-inspiring at all in the postseason 😂 (that was sarcasm, since you don’t seem intelligent enough to grasp that)
As a Cubs fan, we appreciate the hell out of him. Played a huge role in 2016. He’s a modern day Adam Dunn
Yeah he was a spark plug for the title team for sure. I hate that the Cubs ditched him. I think he could be a better hitter and more productive than Dunn with just small adjustments in his approach.
as a phillies fan we also appreciate him. he is ryan howard. he will strike out but he will hit you 40 bombs a year, ill take the trade off especially when he gets hot. he starts desyroying the baseball
Schwarber was one of favorite all time Cubs. He looked like a fire hydrant when he broke into the bigs, then the injury that took him out of early in 2016. He worked his tail off to come back ,looking lean and mean for the Cubs 2016 post season run, including the World Series Championship. The only thing bigger then his bat is his heart. You go Scawrbs.
Are you me?
Their offense is centered around this man and Bryce. His .912 OPS since the all star break sounds pretty consistent to me. Especially as they gear up for the postseason. I get it. Walks don’t always come around to score but a walk is at least four pitches and a K is at least three. Having the guy at the top of your order see a lot of pitches has always had relevance in the game of baseball and realistically I’m not sure that toll on a pitcher is quantifiable. This team was designed to outhit their problems yet they quietly got faster, better defensively, and younger. Schwarber is here entirely for his OPS. If you want someone in the Phillies lineup that doesn’t strike out they have those too. Stott and Bohm are elite in K% and Whiff%; not to mention Schwarber’s 86th percentile chase rate. Team balance matters where as a player needs to play to their strengths. He was signed with the intention of splitting DH time with Cast. He was never a good defensive player at any point in his career and flipping a switch like that isn’t something you can just do especially after an ACL tear. Pretty trash take but hey at least you knew that if he ever loses his power he will lose his value. 🎉
You didn't mention that Schwarber is top 10 in runs and top 15 in RBI. I think this tips the scale to "Yes. It's working."
He isn't guys at all period
Except that top 15 means not exeptional. Everyone is in the top 15 essentially, which is why nobody talks about the top 15 of anything.
I mean they went to the World Series his first year leading off for the Phillies, and here they are again back to the playoffs for the second time in over 10 years. Funny how so many people want to say it “doesn’t work”
@@CovChannelDon't know how this is news to you, but there are far more than 15 batters in MLB, so, no, not everyone is in the top 15. Only 15 (maybe a few more in case of ties at number 15) players are.
It's awesome until he goes cold in the playoffs. Then he's swinging from his heels on the golf course.
The psychological flow interruption of a long at bat or an early home run make him a valuable part of the lineup no matter where he is, but early game damage can force a team to wear out their bullpen (or overextend their arms if theyve run out of viable bullpen pieces). Hes versatile-ish and imposing, not the best offensive hitter in the game but definitely a notable one. A key playoff piece too.
Very good point, the mental tole he can take on a pitcher can't be measured but is a valuable part as well, but if a team Ks him a couple times do you think it does the opposite?
@@SmartrBaseball it definitely depends on the pitcher, but if he goes down in a 6-8 pitch AB in the beginning of the game, maybe revealing a release point or a sign tip, it can still have a more positive effect than say, a leadoff groundout or flyout
dont forget Bohm and Stott aswell with the way they have lots of 8-12 pitch atbats
45 HR and 124 BBs is good, period.
When it comes at the expense of good overall hitting, it's not necessarily a good thing as the feast or famine method of hitting can make it not so worthwhile.
But how are his situational statistics?
@@iamhungey12345 OPS is 'overall hitting' - and it doesn't come at the expense of that, clearly.
@@carlwilliams9642 irrelevant. Over a large enough sample, almost no one has either bad or good 'situational' stats - there's a few outliers, but very few. One year a guy does great with RISP, the next year he does poorly (relative to his overall numbers). - that's just chance, basically.
@@ryanb2607 Hitting for good average adds to the OPS bud.
It is fine to have one or two player like Schwarber in your lineup, but if you have any more than that your lineup will have problems moving runners and your offense suffers as a whole.
I’m a Yankees fan and that’s exactly what’s wrong with our team, except for Judge
@@joegarabedian1187 I am as well.
San Diego Padres have left the chat
If you had 9 Kyle Schwarbers you would’ve hit 423 home runs this year
@@IFeelWeak And about 400 of them would have been solo shots
Can we talk about how the catcher at 2:18 tried to frame a pitch that almost hit the ground as a belt high strike 🤣
It’s obvious Schwarber has settled into that identity. His approach is simple: Wait for the perfect pitch and try to hit it out. this leads to SO and BB. If he wanted to, he could switch up his approach. But he figures it’s what he’s most successful at thus far.
He used to have this approach back in his days with the cubs. He used to shorten up when down in the count and his OPS+ was almost identical to now. I think he made the decision to wait for his pitch and swing out of his shoes. And honestly i see it as more valuable because those nukes he hits can be contagious and really spark an offense. Its up to the GMs to build teams the right way and if they have someone like Shwarber they need to build the right pieces around that. Having a team full or Shwarbers obviously wouldn't work.
@@amolleybaseball I totally agree
He can definitely hit for a higher average at the cost of losing some walks and HRs. I think his game plan is to work the count and put as much stress on the pitcher as possible to set up other guys on his team like Harper. Good point about his base running though. He could really use a designated pinch runner
That's point that analytics needs to address - how many pitches per plate appearance.
@@williamdiedrich3729 pitches per plate appearance is absolutely one of the more slept on stats, but in general that seems like it's one of the harder ones to equate to run production, since I don't see it in many of the big formulas.
The analytics don't really say he's been "good," they just say he's been acceptable, which in itself is impressive for a .198 leadoff hitter.
Analytics doesn’t touch it, or at least I don’t think it does, but Kyle is a culture guy. The attitude he brought with him as a winner and leader helped bring the team out of its losing ways. He’s teaching these guys what it means to play the right way. Bryce is here sure, and he’s a great example to follow. But now it’s a culture, not just one guy.
Best argument I've seen. Too many people trying to defend him statistically, when it really can't be done. But I totally agree with your take. I'm not a Philly fan, don't watch them much... But it is obvious he impacts the teams attitude in a positive way.
As a Phils fan I fully endorse Schawrbs and his OBP role in back to back playoff seasons. He should not be playing the field but he has done well enough in LF this year not to embarrass himself. We have to keep in mind that playing defense decreases his value but he's doing so in 2023 out of necessity after Rhys's knee exploded. The main downside I will abide is the base running. Leading him off neutralizes Trea in many instances.
“He gets on base a lot. Do I care whether it’s a walk or a hit?” (points at Pete)
Pete's gone. Vegas.
You do not.
.345 is a lot in today's game. Yet when Ichiro was playing, .350 was blah. Hmmmm, I wonder what's changed since then.
The simple fact of the matter is that a ball in play is an out at least 66% of the time. A walk is an out 0% of the time. Outs are bad for an offense. It amazes me that people still miss the point of the focus on OBP. Simply take any baseball situation. Runners on whatever bases and any amount of outs. A batter not making an out ALWAYS increases the expected runs in an inning. Making outs almost always decreases the expected runs per inning.
I agree with your point overall of course but a slight nitpick: balls in play are outs at least 66% of the time but Bryce Harper hit .437 on contact (including homers) in 2015. Looking at babip discards a lot of the best contact a player makes.
Max Muncy is the same deal but in the end both these guys carry a good OPS so if I were just looking at those numbers I'd be pretty pumped to have them on my team.
Why I think it's such a great debate, guys like this there's parts of their game you're thrilled about, then other parts that make you cringe.
@@SmartrBaseball True! Max does it to me at third base almost every night!
It helps that the Dodgers also have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
@@iamhungey12345
Freddie Freeman is the antithesis of Kyle Schwarber.
@@SmartrBaseballas opposed to the more "balanced" hitters who get singles instead of walks, and get groundouts instead of strikeouts, and somehow don't mAkE yOu CrInGe despite producing exactly the same level of offense?? if they produce a lot of runs they're good lol. simple as that
He’s like the character with a high atk stat but has 0 dexterity and speed making him have bad aim. But if he lands the hit, he will do massive damage.
Earthbound casey bat. It only has a 20% chance of hitting but it always lands a SMAAAASH attack
God, I love nerds.
@@swartley Heheh. Same
Definitely would make him an orc in dnd
Which means the accumulative damage over some stretch of time would be higher for someone with less atk but higher dexterity and speed, even though the damage on a single hit is not going to be as high
I think it would be useful to look at Schwarber as a hitter compared to, say, Adley Rutschmann. Schwarber has a slightly higher OPS but AR gives you much higher avg around .280, fewer HR at 19, fewer walks at 89and slightly WRC+ at 124 so far versus Schwarber’s .196, 45, 124, and 119. I think in most lineups, having AR at the top of the lineup is overall better than having KS. But that’s just a gestalt/gut feeling. I think the higher WRC+ supports that, though.
Another good example is a guy like Adolis Garcia. We know he’s a better defender, but from a pure hitting perspective, he’s on about the same level of power as Schwarb, draws less walks but still strikes out less often and has a slightly higher OPS.
He gets on base less often but still has more hits, Less home runs, only trailing by 8, and a higher SLG. Also, those 9 stolen bases look much better than 0, especially from a guy who isn’t exactly known for his speed. (Baseball Savant has him ranked in the 50th percentile, and Schwarber in the 5th 😭)
Their roles on offense are quite different, but if i had choose, its Adolis everyday. They’re the same age, but AG’s numbers and obvious defensive value trumps KS’s near identical power.
His obp is still solid great if you consider his average.
@@whywhy3289 Not a good standard.
@@iamhungey12345 On base percentage is a better indicator than batting average
@@whywhy3289 Doesn't mean BA should be neglected however, if you don't hit that often you will have more trouble moving the runners in a more critical time. The guy gotten out far too many times that it dragged down the OBP given by walks.
I think not every hitter needs to be "balanced" but every lineup should strive to be. Schwarber is an interesting case, I definitely think he's a limited hitter but that's not a bad thing necessarily. I think you can't have too many Three True Outcomes guys in your lineup to be an efficient unit.
True, to really make it work the line up needs to have the kind of hitters to help support the high risk type batter. It's still ideal to have good contact hitters around the guy rather than having a line up filled with swinging for the fences kind of players.
It doesn't really matter as long as their actually good hitters.
Great point. The Phils lineup really is diverse and balanced. They can abide Schwarber at the top when more good OPS+ guys of different styles are hitting behind him. The bottom of their lineup has also been a high contributor this season. It has turned the lineup over and given a chance for Kyle to get his RBI numbers where they are.
@@deepzone31 It can also depends on Bryce Harper as well, adding more potency to the line up whenever the guy's healthy. Granted Harper's injury problems isn't as bad as Stanton's but it can get pretty concerning for the team.
Just look at the “Where are they now?” Cubs 2016 core. Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Contreras, and Schwarber, combined, without a few good contact hitters, is what led to the demise of that team.
Love him.
The amount of lead-off homers we get for a 1-0 start is great and any fan who knows this team knows his value.
If you believe in WAR (which not everyone does), he's really not that good. His current bWAR is only 0.6. Compare that to, say, Phillies bench player Cristian Pache (0.8 bWAR in only 84 PA, vs. Schwarber's 709 PA). In theory, if the Phillies played Pache all the time over Schwarber, they'd be much better off. Though that seems hard to believe.
In Schwarber's defense, he's only in this situation due to Harper's injury forcing him to play outfield. If he was just DHing, his WAR would look decent. Though still not meriting a $20M salary.
He had 2.7 offensive WAR. That is as a LF. As a DH it would be lower because of the DH penalty in the stat. I believe, with that, his WAR as a DH would be about 2.5 or 2.6
Not a BAD season necessarily but far from a good one.
I don't argue that he's not valuable in his way, and as a DH he, despite lower WAR, is more valuable simply because he's not actively hurting your ability to prevent runs being scored.
I'm not one of those who say you need to hit .300 to be good, but sub .200 is just a bridge too far for me. And 210+ strikeouts is awful. If you strike out around that many times, you gotta be like Aaron Judge, and come through in the times you don't strike out more often.
This year also was an outlier for walks with him. Has 125 or so and previous high was around 40 fewer. That's the only thing that saved his OBP. He's at .344 I believe. If he didn't have those 40 extra walks, his OBP is down around .300 or lower, and that is atrocious.
@@snerdterguson Schwarber's OWAR is 2.8. That's pretty good, though definitely not as good as you would think with a .345 OBP and 47 HR. But that means his defensive value is absolutely horrendous. -2.0. Without a doubt, he is the DH to end all DHs. You simply CANNOT put him in the field. As for those extra walks, it appears like they were by design. His batting average went down 20 points, but his OBP went up 20 points. It's a good tradeoff that I'd take in a second. And then there's the post-season. You'd think he would be the kind of hitter that would suck in the post-season. But he's been really good. .371 OBP and 15 HR. And even AVG is at .242. So, I'd say he's overall a a really good player. The biggest problem with him wasn't even mentioned. He clogs up the DH spot.
@@jakes3799 it’s a horrible trade off. Why do people think getting a walk is equal to getting a hit? It literally is always better to get a hit. Runners can move more than one base in a hit, a hit creates the chance for a bad throw.
Trading batting average for walks is absolutely counterproductive.
@@snerdterguson But it wasn't a one-to one tradeoff. If the OBP was the same and the AVG went down, that would be a one-to-one tradeoff and then yes, it would be couterproductive. But adding 20 points to your OBP in exchange for a loss of 20 points of AVG? That's a massive increase in the number of times on base. That is DEFINTELY worth it. Sure, a walk is not equal to a single, but the difference between the two is not massive. Yes, runners can move more than one base on a single, but often don't, unless the runner is on 2nd. If the majority of game situations involved a single with a guy on 2nd, then a single would be much more valuable since the runner usually scores from 2nd. But the most frequent occurrence is when the bases are empty or when there is a guy on 1st. When the bases are empty, a single is actually sometimes less valuable than a walk because fewer pitches are usually thrown. That means the pitcher expends less energy and the bench has fewer pitches to examine b/c fewer pitches were thrown. When there is a guy on 1st, a single is often no better than a walk b/c usually the guy on 1st only goes to 2nd. Occasionally he might move to 3rd but not often. Additionally, there is always the chance of an error, which also helps the value of a single. Still, those factors combined do not happen often enough to make an increase of 20 OBP points a bad thing when 20 AVG points are lost. Not even close.
Let’s not forget about the lead off shots. Giving your team a 1-0 lead to start 11 games is such a a huge advantage
Ya might not like it but KS is the platonic ideal table setter in 2023
The problem with modern baseball is that everyone takes the same approach to hitting as Schwarber. It is great to have a couple pure power hitters in your lineup like Schwarb, but too many guys with warning track power are swinging for the fences, striking out a lot and not moving anyone around. MLB needs more guys like Mark Grace - line drive hitters who don’t strike out and don’t try to hit the cover off the ball every pitch. They move runners around the bases, have a good to great batting average and OBP. I know I am old school, but the power hitters from the 50’s through 70’s generally had a much better approach, especially with two strikes. They shortened up and put the ball in play more. Just look at their batting averages compared to today’s power hitters. Today’s hitters could learn a lot by looking at the old school players and maybe, just maybe dump this Sabre metrics BS approach. Too many guys taking big swings with big misses…
I agree, just one guy like this in your lineup is okay though. The other 8 should have a different approach if the one guy is always going to the plate with this strategy. Schwarber is that guy for the phils
in 1963, mlb teams collectively scored 3.95 runs per game and hit 246. in 2021, mlb teams scored 4.53 runs per game and hit 244. hitters focus on walks and home runs because they score runs lol. analytics work. if the old power hitters had a "better" approach, why didn't they score as many runs? folks take the new school approach because it works
@@Ben-oi6kz watered down pitching…. Twice as many teams. Pitching is the most difficult talent to find…. Pitchers can’t even finish games today. Bad pitching means more runs. Also, juiced baseballs. Besides, I was talking about power hitters. Guys like Mays, Yastrzemski, Mantle, Williams and Banks. Look at their numbers - HR, batting average and OBP compared to today’s sluggers.
@@myronlarimer1943 Not to mention he chose the year where the pitching mound was raised and the strike zone got wider, later setting the stage for pitchers' era that led to 1968.
@@myronlarimer1943 pitchers only finished games back then bc they weren't throwing as hard. the average fastball has gone from 88 mph in 2002 to 93 mph in 2019. we don't have accurate data from 1930 but it stands to reason it was even lower than 88.
in his first mvp season in 56, mantle hit 37 homers and hit 306. this year, acuna has 41 homers and is hitting 336. and again that's against better pitching. players are getting better, not worse
schwarber is such a weird player, what he's good at, he's one of the best in the entire league. what he's not, he's one of the worst in the league.
He talks about analytics like they’re pulled from thin air, that is not the case, they’re derived directly from on field play. So when he says on field play has to matter, it’s literally all that matters. If he wants to have a situational hitting conversation that’s different.
Yup. I think a lot of people assume "analytics" is completely theoretical, instead of being based on 100 years of baseball history.
8:15 Sums up the entire padres 2023 season
Homeruns are so weirdly undervalued for some reason
So is contact hitting.
@@iamhungey12345 homeruns > singles
@@BrightHornet936 You don't get many of these and if that's all you got, there's a problem. Feast or famine is never good.
@@iamhungey12345 every hitting style is feast or famine. You either get out or you don't. If Homer or K is feast or famine what's single or double play?
@@BrightHornet936 Not to the point of going for homer or nothing bud. No offense but you're making a really stupid argument that is basically one extreme over the other.
He is very similar to Giancarlo Stanton. NY can't get rid of him and no one will take him. The difference between both is Giancarlo can't stay healthy.
Miss the days when a really good hitter would hit .290 or better, 25+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and strike out less than how many hits they'd have in a season.
The 80s and 90s had a collection of the best pure hitters in my opinion.
analytics are for nerds. BALL GO BOOM
The fan’s’ perspective counts, he’s very much appreciated in Philly. Nevertheless, Kyle is on a perfect team to make his positives outweigh his obvious deficiencies.
Quite the Anatoly indeed.
Excellent commentary 👍
One thing you didn’t include is his spot in the lineup: lead off…rather incredible he maintains that spot .
But they are winning !
Distracting and irritating background music
Great video, really laid out the arguments well on analytic stats
Could you imagine if his BA was above 260? Dude might be in MVP consideration 👀
Never
Nah, his defense is pretty terrible. If he was a DH maybe.
No defense like at DH is better than bad defense.
Assuming his power would stay the same with that average, he’d have like 60 homers so yeah he’d be in the conversation for sure
He probably would get some votes but his defense would have sunk his chance. He basically would have been similar to Alfonso Soriano.
It's all about team construction. You want to build a balanced lineup. A team full of Shwarbers would be a PHENOMENAL offense. However, they'd have less chance of winning a 7 game series than an equally potent offense with more balance.
That's the point. The stats are 100% correct. His value is real. The middle ground isn't really about players. It's about team construction. Still a team sport.
Absolutely. And the way the Phillies lineup is set up it all just works
My biggest issue with the true outcome approach is that it discounts the value of getting on base and ignores so many factors that define if an atbat were “good” and all the non-true outcomes that are still solid at bats.
A 9 pitch strikeout against an ace where you keep alive with foul balls is way better than striking out in 3 pitches cause you wanted a homerun.
In a lot of situations, you don’t want a true outcome guy either. If you are back by four runs, you want your lead off guy to work pitches and start a rally.
Often whether it’s a single or a double or a homerun isn’t even that major. 2 outs, runner on second and third. You have a two run lead, you don’t need to swing for the fences.
It discounts for how important a single can be with a good base runner. You affect the pitcher’s motion, have someone cover second and/or first to open up allies.
If the infield is in, don’t try for a homerun if you don’t need to. Hit it past the third baseman.
The point is,production shouldn’t mean home runs. I don’t really watch non-Orioles teams.
I know how much a team can miss pure HR hitters after we had Davis, Machado, Jones. But a lot of absolute studs like Adley and Gunnar aren’t going to lead the league in HRs. But I’d argue they are more valuable than Schwarber because they get on base often, that makes the pitcher have to reassess. Getting on base means the pitcher faces one more batter, that runs up pitch counts. It’s huge in a four game series where you face their ace.
To me, reducing a batter to true outcomes is like assuming “arm talent” makes a pitcher good. Because control, calmness and every other factor come into play too
your point is you'd rather have a single than a home run because if you're down by 4 runs a single is more likely to start a rally?? but you inexplicably wouldn't be happy with a walk for the same reason? mfs be tying themselves in knots to oppose analytics lol
Kyle Schwarber is 6th in the majors in pitches seen per plate appearance. So he's not striking on three pitching swinging for the fences. He is very patient and sees more pitches that almost anyone in the league.
@@Ben-oi6kzOPS is not an advanced metric at all, it's literally adding 2 unrelated numbers with different denominators together. But that's what players are judged by so the best bet is just swing hard
@@PhantomofDB the r2 correlation coefficient between ops+ and wrc+ is 0.992. its not intuitive that adding obs and slg would be a good metric but in fact it is
@@Ben-oi6kz Is it really? At the individual level or team level? Not doubting you, but if that is true at the individual level, that is really amazing.
I just figure, OPS is an easy starting point. You can get into more nitty gritty with things like RC if you want, but you are going to get most of the big picture with OPS.
This is a big reason why they didn't win the World Series, AGAIN. It's all or nothing with Kyle and other Philly players.
Analytics is why we now the have the shift rule. Hitters didn't go the opposite way to break the shift because they lacked the skill. They ended up hitting into the shift because swinging for the fences has more value according to the analytics.
Yeah they pull the ball cause you hit the ball harder when it’s pulled (generally)
The shift is no longer a thing.
@@Rockhound6165 Who knew?
Baseball was so
Much better in the 80’s. It’s awful and boring now.
Runs wins games and he accounts for a lot of them. I can hit all day but if I don’t score myself or another who cares. It’s why we see NBA 3 point happy and NFL pass happy. Sure he should be higher BA but he gets runs
I came up with my own stat, called BOA (or BOBA, Bases over Average, needs a rename). It’s a measure of a batter’s eye and power, independent of batting average. Easiest calculation for this is OPS minus (2*BA) [or OBP+ISO-BA] because batting average is a large component of both OBP and Slugging. Like BA, a very good BOA is .300. A BOA of .400+ is elite. MLB’s average BOA this season is .239. The red-billed Schwarbler is somewhere around .440 ! 😮
The key is being able to hit in clutch situations and not choking with runners in scoring position, as virtually every Cardinals hitter does.
Batting him leadoff is probably a big negative vs. batting him in a spot where he comes up with more guys on base. The one plus is less GIDP but if by batting him 3-4-5 and good OBA guys ahead of him may have him batting with more runners on base and maybe even making pitchers more reluctant to walk him giving him better pitches to hit. Also he probably clogs the bases so putting him in front of any speed guys is a mistake. His RC seems pretty consistent around 118ish so maybe it wouldnt change much but that is my 2 cents he is above avg offensively and a defensive liability and a slow base runner.
Edit: Amazingly he has hit into only 4 GIDP's and has just a .211 BBIP compared to a league avg of .296. 50 years ago I would have just eaten up all these numbers so I would know some reasons why other than to say he hits lots of fly balls right where you would expect and is as slow af
I actually disagree with this take, with his high walk rate he is extremely valuable at leadoff
@@prolix64 his OBA is above average your leadoff hitter unless he is a big power threat should be your best OBA guy. Closer to .400 not .340. What makes him better at leadoff than say #2?
@@njacobdekelaita6198 walks in the leadoff spot are better than walks with runners on
Kyle probably had the weirdest season very bad batting avg but career highs in just about every category
I love russian roulette home run man
Points I didn’t see you mention:
1. Striking out is better than grounding into a double play
2. Striking out/walking causes the pitcher to have a higher pitch count, causing him to leave the game earlier.
****
I’ve flip-flopped on my opinion on Schwarber. I hate 3 true outcome baseball (give me Kenny Lofton!) but Schwarber is so entertaining to watch. Because when he does hit one ….. holy shnikes.
The bigger problem is Rob Thomson's terrible decision to bat Schwarber lead-off. This has resulted in Schwarber only having 100 RBI - he'd be around 120 batting 3rd in the lineup behind Marsh and Harper. He gets on 1st with a walk and then clogs the bases. With Marsh and Harper hitting in front of him, he would turn a lot of solo homers into 2 runs instead.
Yeah that would probably help making his shortcomings in his batting somewhat more tolerable if the guy can do well in critical situation but what's the word on his batting in the lower part of the line up?
AND Trea Turner, one of if not the fastest player on the phillies bats right behind him and just slows him down, preventing him from going 1B to 3B more than once
They did move him down in the lineup a few games as an experiment, but he didn't hit at all, and they had to move him mback up. The object of making him the leadoff hitter is to get him additional at-bats over the course of the season, so he has more chances to hit home runs. Of course he also has more chances to strike out. He's over 200k's for this season.
@@andrewheller1483 That would explains it.
I would bat him lower in the lineup because he would hit would more people on base and also won't hit into double plays, then I would put somebody who mashes left handed pitchers behind him
Yeah, well he also had 47 HR, 104 RBI, and 121 BB ...oh yeah, AND he helped lead the team back to the playoffs. Go PHILLIES!
the problem with analytics is people who don't use analytics properly/enough and come to poor conclusions because of it. Everything you say about Schwarber can be seen pretty easily with stats, both analytical and counting. It's just that instead of coming up with a more complex answer, people just want to know if a player is good or bad. Simply saying "he does these things well and these things poorly and this is how players who are similar tend to progress through their careers" would be enough to use analytical stats properly. Without these analytics, Schwarber would probably not be on a team because his BA is too low. Instead, we know just how good he is and when it's best to use him.
He would still be on a team, and probably starting. Teams were putting Dave Kingman out there day in and day out . The Phillies were throwing Steve Jeltz out there for 300-400 at bats a year for a 5 or 6 year stretch for goodness sakes. You don't need analytics to go.."gee, he walks a ton, hits a ton of homeruns and strikes out a lot..guess that's what he brings to the table."
This, the issue is that people would focus on one thing and go extreme towards it. Plus there are instances where managers would make decisions based on analytics and backfires...with irony being that their decisions actually went the opposite of what analytics would call for (ex: What Kevin Cash did in 2020 WS).
I can’t hear you over the .343 OBP, .469 SLG, .812 OPS, and 119 OPS+
I don't think a player not focusing on the weaknesses of their game is analytics fault. If you've described anything, it's about how Schawrber is a flawed hitter and fans over value his stats in some cases.
Well bottom line is, in the 2 years he's been playing in Philly they've made the playoffs (and world series) with him in the lead-off role. He's clearly a large part of their success and if we're simply to judge on a results oriented basis; he's clearly very good.
Large part lol he's the worst defensive outfielder in baseball. Take schwaber off the team and replace him with any other teams leadoff and they're in the same place or better
I really appreciated this video. My input would be Shwarber is good if he can avoid playing the field as much as possible, soley DH and has a decent team around him ... if he were on the Tigers or Royals, with their large, not home run friendly stadiums, he may not fair so well, especially if he had to play defense in those parks ... Regardless of my hypotheticals he is an interesting player to profile and even more difficult to define. Good video, i just subscribed!
For schwarber I know how powerful he is, but to get two out rallies going he has to try to hit for a little more average. I think a good combo of power and average is Matt Olson who has a league leading 53 long balls and slashes 0.281/0.389/0.604
Juan Soto also fits the mold as well, like Olson he also fits the definition of a "three true outcomes" player who also bats decently for a more rounded hitting.
Yep. This is a big factor into things for me. You don’t always need a HR, a double to start a two out rally or to bring in that lead off runner that got stranded for two outs is a big part of baseball. You don’t need a HR to have a positive outcome. Once you are on base, the pitcher has to worry about you. OBP is really slept on
@@uhm7293 Exactly, people need to realize it doesn't have to be one extreme over the other but often time there would be idiots who thinks wanting someone to bat for even a decent average means you want the player to hit for just singles.
@@iamhungey12345 yep. Statistically speaking, hitting a Homerun is one of the hardest thing to do across major sports.
In football, 20 goals in a season is a benchmark measuring a good striker and is hit regularly. That’s roughly 0.5 goals a game. That’s often enough to be in a golden boot race.
In Football; a WR can catch a whole bunch of touch downs. But even then it’s a different type of sport cause others can get the TD and still be a good outcome.
In baseball; 40 homeruns, maybe 50 is the benchmark. The best ever has been 70 homeruns and that’s with steroids. On average, 50 homeruns is insanely productive. So that’s like a homerun every 3 or so game.
And you need a lot of stars to align with the right pitch, right location, right ballpark.
The thing with power hitters is that if you put them in the playoffs in a ballpark with a deep wall and that affects a lot. You don’t want your best players to work that way
@@uhm7293 Plus it also helps to have good contact hitters in front to help set up for the power hitters. That's where they can potentially do real damage and with a runner on, the pitcher will have to think.
Dude has 124 BB. Lets pretend he had 30 less lead-off walks and instead they were 30 singles. He would still be tied for 4th in MLB with 94 BB (having a chance at 100, if he plays to end the year). He would also have a 0.250 BA, with the same SLG and OPS. There would be none of this conversation, but there would be no change at all in game outcome. So what does it really matter?
Obviously, a bit contrived to say only lead-off walks change, but the point stands.
Plus, Kyle is top 5 in pitches per PA. Unmentioned positive trait in your leadoff guy. Only way he is giving a short first AB is if it ends with a HR.
I think he was 6th in pitches per plate appearance when I checked. But great comment. Agree 100%
Phil's fan. I still can't get over him bunting with 2 outs and 2 strikes in the 8th of the world series.
That's how bad he is
@@707ridah Doesn't compare to his fans in this comments sections. It's that bad.
@@iamhungey12345 💯 facts 😄 🤣
@@707ridah Yep, I'm currently engaged with one and this may go on for a bit.
@iamhungey12345 for real, I'm sorry but in time it'll pass hopefully
This video demonstrates why Schwarber in the leadoff spot is perfect for him. He's obviously not the prototypical lead off guy, but the whole "you cant move a guy to third by walking" argument is completely negated by the fact that as a lead off guy there isn't anyone on base TO move over. The impact of a strikeout in that situation is guarenteed to be negligable, and has the same impact as a ground out or pop fly.
If you suck at baserunning, then your walks don't mean shit.
Exactly. Conversely, if you have blazing speed like Volpe but are either homer or strikeout you are not helping the team because your speed is totally wasted.
He's top 20 in baseball in runs scored.
You don't have to be good at baserunning to score runs. It's better to be good at baserunning than not be good at baserunning, sure! And sure, 45 of his runs scored are from him hitting home runs. But where'd the other 80 come from? He must have gotten on base, right?
@@kyledaugherty1609 Actually, he's top 10 in runs scored. But agree with your point; no brainer. These guys are all just making low IQ comments, lol.
HRs have always cost Ks but he walks so much theres no way his real value isn't high
Yogi Berra used to walk more often than strikeout, even though he chased bad pitches
The Yankees love .190 hitters that can hit for power!
Because of the ridiculous short fences.
That's what helped fuck up the team to begin with, remember Gallo? Never mind it was a recent thing the Yankees has gotten into but shouldn't to begin with. Here's hoping Volpe takes the next step forward next season.
40+ HR, 100+ Runs and RBI's. I'm sure most GM's in the league would jump at the opportunity of landing a player with those numbers.
no they wold not he is hitting under 200 stuck out over 200 times his war is o.5 which is terrible he is lousy in the field he is a useless hitter
People need to stop acting like strikeouts are a good thing. It’s the worst out in baseball, putting the ball in play is far more valuable out always will be. So in conclusion yes he’s analytics taken too far much like gallo was before he got traded to the Yankees.
Someone's never heard of grounding into a double play. Putting the ball isn't ALWAYS far more valuable. Ks aren't good and no one pretends they are, but they aren't nearly as bad as batting average-obsessed want to believe, either
a groundout is worth about 0.06 runs, while a strikeout is worth 0. a walk is worth about 0.69. so in 100 AB, if another hitter grounded out 23 times that schwarber struck out, schwarber would only need to draw 2 extra walks to make up for it. that's a bet he's happy to take
So Schwarber is analytics going too far because Joey Gallo had a bad year? Make that make sense
This video is the definition of the "Wow, I didn't know that. You're telling me know for the first time," meme. I expected you to actually talk about some problems with analytics and instead you just summarized the analytics to explain something everyone already knows. Schwarber is a power hitter who homers, walks, and strikes out a lot.
if you don't throw it down the middle, he hits about .010. If you groove one, he hits .400 .
I think he can be very effective as he is. All players have strengths and weaknesses, and that's sort of what the lineup order is meant to do. Put players in positions where their strengths can shine. Which is why it baffles me that the Phillies insist on having Schwarber bat lead off.
No matter how hard he hits it, there's no way for him to get more than 1 run the first time he comes up to bat. And if he walks, he's now clogging up the base paths so Trea Turner can't use his speed.
I feel like if they played Trea Turner lead off and Kyle Schwarber 2nd, they would have had at least 5 more wins then they currently do. And Schwarber would probably have way more RBIs.
What feels different about Schwarber is that he gets those homeruns or walks when you really need them. He's not just hitting a bunch of homeruns when they don't matter. But that's just the eye ball test, I don't have any analytics to back it up haha. I think we are seeing more contact hitters come into the league though.
I think this perfectly explains why he's been so valuable for the Phillies. The advanced analytics don't look as impressive as watching him play and seeing those clutch hits or him being the only guy to drive in runs for a particular game
Walks are station to station. Your not moving runners around like you do if you make contact. Yeah your getting on base but if every person in your lineup did what he did your offense is complete trash
0:06 agree, only useless one is war. .198 avg is horrible, 42 hrs cool the avg horrible. 2:43 war is a extremely useless stat
Could well go down the Stanton path.
I just wish they would move him down. He’s got a chance to be much more productive with runners ahead of him rather than clogging up the base paths ahead of guys like Trea and Bryce.
Imagine all the baseball IQ that will be lost as we progress to this "three outcome" format of baseball. Less balls in play, less baserunning, less situational baseball will provide less opportunity for players to develop that B-IQ
Not to mention people supporting it.
What baseball IQ is at risk? If situational baseball isn't efficient, then what's the loss? I mean no one knows how to do the Baltimore chop anymore, but who cares?
Sounds like sour grapes to me. "Baseball IQ" doesn't mean pulling a Wee Willie Keeler all the time.
@@dawgbone98That tactic is only useful for a tiny amount of players. Sacrificing outs is usually a bad idea and it's proven with expected run tables. In high-scoring environments, it's pointless a lot of the time.
Look how the Braves won today. A homer in the ninth to tie the game, then in the tenth: a ground out moving the runner to third, hard single opposite field, stolen base, and another hard single to right to win.
Analytics has made this year's Braves one of the most deadliest offenses in history, and they don't just hit homers all the time.
"imagine all the mental math skills that will be lost if people use calculators. nasa should just do long division by hand"
I really like this video - tho why I think Kyle Schwarber is just a good hitter though is because he's responsible for nearly 21% of the Phillies runs scored this year. I wont argue that base hits are preferred to walks when guys are on base, but for a guy that walks as much as he does, on top of the high home run numbers, the opportunities he creates for the team provide incredible value for an offense like the Phillies that are going to be able to take advantage of those opportunities
His ability to run matters less when he has players like Harper hitting behind him. He doesn't need to run if Harper, or Turner or any number of other power threats behind him hits a home run. The Phillies are using him in a way that makes his downsides sting less, he just needs to get on and someone behind him has the power to do something big.
If Schwarber is a valuable hitter, simulate how many runs a team would score if they played 9 of him.
Important - how many games would that Schwarberx9 team score 3 runs or less? They'll lose most of those. Yes, they'll have quiet a few 10+ run blowouts. That boosts the mean score. But you don't win two games when you score 12 runs.
I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER but there's enough simulations out there that it should be easy to test.
I'm not saying the 9 Schwarbers should all be terrible fielders. Assume the fielders are average. We're testing offensive consistency, not defense
I just did this simulation and the all schwarber team would score ~5.9 runs per game (would be #1 in the league) and averages ~41 games per 162 game season scoring less than 4 runs (only the Braves this year have fewer such games).
Shockingly a team that averages a homerun every 15 plate appearances (aka a game with less than 2 homeruns is unusual) scores a lot of runs
@@dz_ssbm Thanks!
120 games with 4 or more runs. do you have the distribution of those games? As in, how many 4 run games, how many 5 run... You could lump 8 and up into one slot.
@@ComradeArthur
runsPerGame: 5.919,
hrsPerGame: 2.636,
pasPerGame: 40.387,
hrRate: 0.065,
soRate: 0.299,
bbRate: 0.184,
less4RunGames: 41.231,
exactly0RunGames: 4.781,
exactly1RunGames: 8.427,
exactly2RunGames: 12.304,
exactly3RunGames: 15.719,
exactly4RunGames: 18.819,
exactly5RunGames: 19.158,
exactly6RunGames: 19.112,
exactly7RunGames: 14.835,
over7RunGames: 48.846
those are in avg games per 162 game season
Only issue is he get a lot of single home runs nobody on base
Yes. He should not be a lead that is for sure.
And, when you are drawing walks because you are being pitched around it's going to mean that more of your home runs are going to be in situations where they don't pitch around you. Yes, sometimes that will be when the bases are loaded in the bottom of the ninth, but a .300 hitter is much more dangerous when you've got 2 outs and a runner on third than a .200 hitter who walks a lot, and a guy who can walk a lot is much more valuable when he's got wheels.
I think it's harder to conceptualize the effect of an all or nothing approach on offense than it is an all or nothing defense. If I told you I had a pitcher with a 5 ERA over his last ten games you'd probably skip drafting him... but what if he had 5 complete game shutouts and 5 complete games where he let up 10 runs. What would you expect his W/L record to be? He's probably going to be 5-5. If I tell you I have an offense that scored 50 runs over the last 10 games, you are going to think they are doing well... but if they got shut out 5 times and scored 10 runs 5 times, chances are they are 5-5. Teams that can manufacture runs are almost never going to get shut out. If you have a team that can score 5 runs a game you would much rather that they consistently score 5 runs than being feast or famine. A team that alternates between being shutout and scoring 10 runs every other day is going to be around .500, regardless of their pitching. A team that scores exactly 5 runs every game is going to be one of the better teams in the league (this year that would put them 8th in offense).
This and what the hitter can bring to the table really depends on the ones around him to make up for his shortcomings.
Back in the days when the Bill James abstract was relatively unknown and considered baseball blasphemy to some, we played Status-Pro baseball. I coined the term Howard Johnson player to refer to players that seemed to do better than one would think they did. I used the (what is now known as slash line) stats .250/.350/.450 to compare players. Incidentally HoJo had career averages .249/.340/.446. Using this made it easier to rate players like Schwarber who has career slash of .227/.340/.492. Even with a BA of .227 this is still 9 points over the HoJo line.
I’d take a 30 home run and .250 avg player over him any day!!
you'd end up with brent rooker, (245 avg, 29 hr this season), who has an ops of 813, compared to schwarbers 812. you'd score exactly the same number of runs
Bro said “it’s a very HIT AND MISS style of offense” literally tho 😂😂 that’s fire whether the pun was intended or not’s
The whole, "batting average doesn't matter" thing has over valued the 3 outcome guys. They are a detriment to their team and baseball
Plus the three true outcomes players are better with at least a decent batting average, people needs to realize that.
@@iamhungey12345 guys with a high batting average tend to be more valueable in clutch situations as well.
@@paulhopkins1905 Exactly, one would be insane to choose a sub-Mendoza line batter in a bases loaded situation over someone batting over .300.
@@iamhungey12345if bases are loaded, yeah I’m taking the guy with the 2nd highest walk rate in baseball lmfao what are you gabbing about
@@hb-robo Player who hits for high average would have good OBP as well bud. Plus the batters you prefer would also have highest strikeout rate to go along with their walk rate.
He really doesn’t need to be great at moving people over from the leadoff spot. That spot needs to get on base. He does that well. The Phillies are taking the possible leadoff home run but will settle for the walk. They’re happy to his power to mop up the bottom of the order. Or walk. The only plus side of striking out is you don’t hit into many dp.
It’s worked out nicely for them
man hits below 200 thats garbage
A garbage batting average, yes. But there’s a reason BA’s value as a stat is at an all-time low and will continue to get lower. Overall, he’s a mid to low end power hitter that can give you some high counting stats like HR’s and RBI.
@@sendAJtospacedude is one of the best players on the Phillies, he’s a high end power bat
batting average has rebunded a bit this year tho thx to the rule changes
THe league average 2023 is .250 2022 was 243 so theres been an increase this year
Yea he be getting high stats homeruns walk and rbis wise
Do you see him as a valuable player on his team because if i am being honest I am unsure how to completely feel about a player like this because yes he walks he drives in rbis and hits homers but he also only hits 196 @@sendAJtospace
@@masonmalaguti3463 Plus if one hits a decent average to go along with power and walks, that would have more value than those who couldn't bat at the Mendoza Line.
yea if he at least hit 235 this would be more respecctable but even that average is below league average. @@iamhungey12345
Thank you for this explanation. Started watching MLB again this season after more than a decade. I know different stats are more important now, but the Schwarber lead-off thing was completely baffling
Doesn't seem like a problem.
hitting singles don’t matter that much if you walk a lot
You didn’t see a lot of people in 80s and early 90s pitchers throwing 98-100 pitches. Would like to hear from an old time player if this is affecting hitters nowadays with almost every pitcher throwing 98-101 and a few 105. It just seems extremely hard to hit
Pitchers aren’t throwing 98-101 if measured by the 1980s and 90s standards. These would more likely be registered at 94-97, maybe 95-98 back then. That’s been well documented and backed up by tons of former players who are current coaches/managers.
as long as his type of hitting fits in with the rest of the lineup. They signed him knowing he struck out alot.
The purpose of offense in baseball is to score runs. All you need to evaluate any player's effectiveness is to add the number of runs he scores to the number of his RBIs, and then (to avoid double counting) subtract his home runs. For Schwarber this year that's 108 + 104 -47 = 165. Now, you need to compare that number to the league average to determine his value as an offensive player.
6:10 a lot... this has been studied to death, tbh, so it's not really debatable that it's valuable. now if you fill your lineup w/guys like this, it's probably a bad idea, but 1-2 guys like that on a team isn't bad
The homers are definitely worth the batting average. If he was hurting the team, he wouldn't be leading off all season long.
One thing that analytics hasn't mastered yet is "excitement" and Schwarber is one of the most exciting players out there -- and a huge fan favorite.
Another thing you can't really measure or explain is Schwarber's impact on wins and losses when he leads off for the Phillies. It's something Rob Thomson has talked about all season, "When Kyle bats leadoff for us, we win more games" ... .198 average and almost as many singles as homeruns doesn't sound like a winning formula at the leadoff spot... but it works for this team somehow lol
Because you're not factoring in the 126 walks. Typical idiot cherry picking stats to fit their perceptions.
It wasn’t analytics that caused batters to focus on home runs - it’s the dramatic rise in velocity from pitchers. The easiest way to score a run is to pull a fly ball into the outfield seats.
Ball go far, team go far.
I feel like the reason it works is because guys like Stott and bohm and now turner even him out by being more contact first hitters. Personally I don’t like three true outcome hitting especially in the lead off spot but it works for my Phillies
this analytics age blows my mind. It doesn’t take into account the human factor. It you put the ball in play, it puts pressure on the fielder to make the out. A base runner adds more pressure. Analytics don’t take into account situations. an out in the first is different than in the 9th
I mean we’ve seen this before analytics was really big. Adam Dunn had a couple seasons of 40 home runs and low average. One year he batter like .207 but had 40+ home runs and got to play most of the season. I don’t remember him stealing bases either. Idk why his average is so low this year but what he did his year still makes him more than just an average hitter. He had over 100 runs as well which is tough to do when you bat .198
i think in the NBA there's probably some proprietary stats to measure hustles and diving for loose balls. maybe that's what baseball needs (yes, more numbers) to measure situational hitting, hitting on the other way on purpose, high IQ running like taking the extra base stuff (which you can be sure Schwarber doesn't do). unless that's already measured somewhere
Tbh you're ultimately just begging sabermetricians to come up with new stats and new insights.
There are people who just love baseball, and don't care anything about analytics.
There are people who care about analytics and don't care anything about baseball.
But most of us are somewhere in between, and I don't think any of these are a bad place to be. We are who we are, and for me, if there's a competitive edge in something (particularly if it's legal!😂), I wanna know about it, I wanna quantify it, or otherwise I won't be able to repeat it.
Alonso seems to be evolving into Schwarber.
Agreed, which is why I can't see re-signing or extending him to a superstar contract. Offer him Schwarber's contract, and if he doesn't accept the offer trade him.
I'll add a couple more stats. He is 11th in the NL in RBIs with 101 and 7th in runs scored with 107. 46 of those RBIs and runs are himself because of the homers, so somebody else knocked him in 61 times and he drove in 55 other runners. As much as I hate to say a guy with a sub-.200 average is a good hitter, he scores and knocks in runs. Still, you do have to think if he was hitting even .240 he would be challenging Acuna for MVP because he would be first or second in RBIs, runs, and HRs.