The Rockies tried that whole bullpen thing and it worked for like a year. I think the better plan is to fill all 7 IF/OF positions with the best fielders you can find (they already have Tovar and McMahon on the left side who are both great) and get pitchers that keep the ball on the ground, strikeout stuff just being a bonus.
As a fan of the Rox from Day 1, you got a lot right but missed a lot too. So, to add in: 1) the dry air: it's not just being at 5280, it's being at 10% humidity year round. The decision to store balls in humidor had a noticeable impact (you should have only compared stats since 2002 when humidor went into effect). Lack of humidity also has a major impact on break/spin, and the even greater lack of friction allows balls to travel further yet. 2) Altitude's Impact on a body: it's well documented the major impact of altitude on physical recovery from stress (physical or mental). One of the major factors on Rox hitting/pitching on the road is they are simply more exhausted than their opponents after being at altitude for more than a 3 game series. Even the most radical adjustments to post-game regimes have shown even marginal impact on performance. Those two factors can't be fixed. It also should be taken into account when looking at stats, as a player's worse performance on thr road has to do with more than just not being at Coors. As to team constriction, note that some of the best seasons at home by pitchers hasn't been by hard throwers. You mentioned Otto, a breaking ball pitcher. Kyle Freeland would have deserved the Cy Young in 2018 had DeGrom not gone Super Sein, because his home performance that year was truly epic. Martin Freeman in 1994 also had a great year, but wasn't a hard thrower. Aaron Cook, one of the best Rox pitchers ever was a ground ball machine (keeping the infield from becoming concrete in the dryness is a primary goal of the field care team). So, you can do we there with many styles if you have the mental fortitude to live with innings where things go mad. But yes, it's a singles/triples heaven. Ichiro might well have had 300 hits had the Rox signed him in 2001. It's why everyone was shocked that DJ Lemehiu was so great in NY bc he dined out on the large outfield (granted the joke of a right field in NY also helped him). As to getting great athletic outfielders, sure. But they have to hit at least league average. The Rox have had a good defensive team for years. They just can't hit very well. Jones has potential as seen in 2023, but was still learning OF. But it's why Veen and Montgomery were drafted so high, but they just got hurt in minors (that's not on the GM, sorry). Veen will probably end the season as the starting RF. You also have to have athletic short/second to range for lofty fly balls just out of the infield. Every bullpen wants hard throwers, they work everywhere. Issue at Coors is walks, became a dink shot that's an out everywhere else turns walks into 1st/3rd or worse. Control matters most. The fences were so far so it wouldn't be a bandbox. It worked. But it's a nightmare to game. By the way, OPS, as I understand it applies the park effect to Rox players regardless of whether they hit at Coors or the road. So OPS+ is always a bit screwy for Rox hitters. That's something I just read that was surprising. And yes, Helton was a HOF. If he'd have played in the Bronx everyone would have forgotten Don Mattingly. Some Guys can hit anywhere
Definitely wish the video talked about the impact on the body and recovery. That's such a big part of playing in Denver that a casual fan may not think about.
Coors Field is wild the altitude, huge outfield, and crazy BABIP completely change the game. Loved the idea of the Rockies focusing on athletic outfielders and strikeout heavy pitchers to really take advantage of their unique park!
Very good analysis. I think for pitching, the emphasis needs to be on change of speed (great way to get strikeouts). But relying on speed is more dependable than relying on changes in movement I would think in Coors. So they need to look for pitchers with large speed differences in their arsenal. When Nomo pitched the no hitter in, I think, '99, it was a fastball, forkball combination that worked for him.
It's honestly baffling to me that the Rockies have SUCH a unique home field to build a team around and they have NEVER been able to capitalize on it. A factor like Coors field can be a gift or a curse, it all depends on how you use it. The organization KNOWS they're going to be playing half their games under circumstances that no other team plays under and they still haven't been able to craft a team that will play better under those unique circumstances than any other team. And they've had 30 years to do it.
Sorry, but I've seen good baseball minds crash on that shore. Dan O'Dowd tried several iterations (including the 07 & 09 teams). You can build for Coors but you okay 81 elsewhere. I've seen the Rox win upper 50s at home and still end up in 3rd. The wear down impact of life at altitude is harder than people realize. Adjusting to more normal ball effects is hard too. But since Bridich was fired they have drafted athletic OFs, hard throwing bullpen arms, and a mix of a lot else. Sure, they are poorly run but the problem isn't as easy as it seems. Unless rosters expand to 30 or so and you can carry players with both a road and home setup it's going to be hard. And losing 50m from television deal just made it harder
It's not surprising to me. Even if you mold a team around your home field, then it won't be suitable for half the games you play on the road. Also very good or great pitchers are extremely unlikely to sign with the Rockies. They don't want to wear their arms out or ruin their ERA numbers, which will affect how much money they get later on. Good pitchers have a lot of options with 30 teams in MLB. Teams always say how tired they are after playing 3 or 4 games at Coors Field (even if they win). I can imagine how tired pitchers get after pitching for the Rockies in a season.
It is the same at Albuquerque where the Isotopes, who are the AAA affiliate for the Rockies, play. High altitude and low humidity since they are in the Rockies. The outfield fences are about the same. So, it is a test of pitchers and outfielders and a joy for hitters. Pitches don't have as much dance so hitters can really connect. Fielders need to be really fast. Albuquerque is a good test for minor leagers who are being prepped for Denver.
I’ve been saying this stuff for years. I think another commenter pretty much said all the stuff I wanted to say. One thing the Rockies can do is get some guys with good sinkers and possibly some knucklers. I mean, they. Wes to completely build a different type of team that goes against analytics since Coors is such a lynchpin.
it's really a big combination... 1. Denver is really in an alpine desert.. dry air... drier in fact than Phoenix (I know, I lived in CO for 8 years and have lived in PHX for the last 7).. so the low humidity actually means that the air is lighter... even moreso than the altitude does.. and that's #2.. the altitude... #3.. its the biggest park in the NL.. by far.. so even when you don't go yard.. there is so much more OF to cover.. if you have a fast OF'ers... you can in fact benefit.. but most teams are average meaning... more holes while still in play... that humidity though does 2 things... less air resistance... which effect fly balls and pitches.. that resistance is what allows curveballs to curve... so you lost quite a bit on breaking pitches and movement in general... which is why K's are lower. The humidor did make some change in fly balls.. but not as much in the pitching side... really you need to look more at the numbers since they went with the humidor.. but at the same time... the effect is still there because of the Altitude and large park...
I agree that Larry Walker took too long to get in the HOF. Larry was still very good on the road as well as playing at Coors. He was a dangerous hitter. He was fun to watch for defense as well. I didn't see Todd as much but he was a very good hitter as well. With pitching there, maybe keeping the ball down to force ground balls. Each ballpark has its features. Can depend on how the wind blows or doesn't.
I was thinking that since the air is thinner at that altitude strikeout pitchers are way less effective(park factor of 89 for SOs at Coors) so a staff that is GB focused with a great infield and outfield defense would have a better chance of getting it done.
One issue not touched upon is Coors Field Hangover. Imagine playing half your games with the physics of Coors and the other half not. Batter/Pitcher matchups look completely different closer to sea level as their pitches behave differently. Another reason its hard to build consistency in the Rockies.
I think for pitching I would go after guys whose offspeed pitches are a lot slower than their fastballs. It keeps hitters off balance without needing as much movement.
The size of the Coors Field outfield... When I toured the stadium a few years ago--the Rockies were on a road trip that week--our tour guides told us that the stadium started with their outfield walls at about average distances from home plate. During that time, the stadium allowed so many home runs that the Rockies brass chose to expand the outfield to reduce the number of homers. The consequence was huge gaps between the three outfield zones that allow for a lot more doubles and triples. That's why the Coors Field park factor for triples has consistently been around 200, meaning the average batter is twice as likely to hit a triple at Coors Field than anywhere else.
Would you extend your analysis with infielders with above average range? Similar reasoning, except to prevent balls getting to the outfield. Finding the best pitchers and pitching strategy is tough. Looks like walks dont hurt as much, at least as compared to a ball put in play, so trying for swing and miss, even with 3 balls, might be more favorable. Colorado is a landing spot for players and coaches with unique skillsets. I wonder if Maddon would be a good manager? He's very non traditional and Colorado is a place where you have to throw out traditional methods.
Trevor Bauer thrived in one of the highest elevations in baseball. If there's a pitcher that the Rockies could use, and a player that desperately wants to play in the MLB again, even saying he'd do it for league minimum, I have no idea why the Rockies wouldn't go for him. Yes he is blackballed, and yes he was very cringe and controversial, but throughout his days in Japan and Mexico, I'd say he has pretty well exonerated himself.
Came here to say this. Even in his earlier season videos he was always blaming the altitude for his shitty pitching, even so he overcome it and became the best pitcher in the mexican league.
Denver's Coors Field is a copycat of Baltimore's Oriole Park at Camden Yards, except for a few minor changes, and, of course, the altitude. It is one of three copycat stadiums in the Major Leagues that were completed about the same time, just after Oriole Park opened.
I don’t see what rules have been broken. Stadium dimensions rules only state that the foul lines have to a minimum of 325 ft from home plate and center field a minimum of 400 ft.
Why do the Rockies hit for 💩 if the park is so easy to hit in? Pitch placement makes a pitcher good, not the ballpark. A pitchers ability to play mind games with the hitter breads their success. All hitters have weaknesses, and the best pitchers know them and exploit them. If a ballpark determines a players ability, how did they make it the Show in the first place? Superstitious BS doesn't mean crap to a HOF mentality!
The Rockies tried that whole bullpen thing and it worked for like a year. I think the better plan is to fill all 7 IF/OF positions with the best fielders you can find (they already have Tovar and McMahon on the left side who are both great) and get pitchers that keep the ball on the ground, strikeout stuff just being a bonus.
As a fan of the Rox from Day 1, you got a lot right but missed a lot too. So, to add in:
1) the dry air: it's not just being at 5280, it's being at 10% humidity year round. The decision to store balls in humidor had a noticeable impact (you should have only compared stats since 2002 when humidor went into effect). Lack of humidity also has a major impact on break/spin, and the even greater lack of friction allows balls to travel further yet.
2) Altitude's Impact on a body: it's well documented the major impact of altitude on physical recovery from stress (physical or mental). One of the major factors on Rox hitting/pitching on the road is they are simply more exhausted than their opponents after being at altitude for more than a 3 game series. Even the most radical adjustments to post-game regimes have shown even marginal impact on performance.
Those two factors can't be fixed. It also should be taken into account when looking at stats, as a player's worse performance on thr road has to do with more than just not being at Coors.
As to team constriction, note that some of the best seasons at home by pitchers hasn't been by hard throwers. You mentioned Otto, a breaking ball pitcher. Kyle Freeland would have deserved the Cy Young in 2018 had DeGrom not gone Super Sein, because his home performance that year was truly epic. Martin Freeman in 1994 also had a great year, but wasn't a hard thrower. Aaron Cook, one of the best Rox pitchers ever was a ground ball machine (keeping the infield from becoming concrete in the dryness is a primary goal of the field care team). So, you can do we there with many styles if you have the mental fortitude to live with innings where things go mad.
But yes, it's a singles/triples heaven. Ichiro might well have had 300 hits had the Rox signed him in 2001. It's why everyone was shocked that DJ Lemehiu was so great in NY bc he dined out on the large outfield (granted the joke of a right field in NY also helped him).
As to getting great athletic outfielders, sure. But they have to hit at least league average. The Rox have had a good defensive team for years. They just can't hit very well. Jones has potential as seen in 2023, but was still learning OF. But it's why Veen and Montgomery were drafted so high, but they just got hurt in minors (that's not on the GM, sorry). Veen will probably end the season as the starting RF. You also have to have athletic short/second to range for lofty fly balls just out of the infield.
Every bullpen wants hard throwers, they work everywhere. Issue at Coors is walks, became a dink shot that's an out everywhere else turns walks into 1st/3rd or worse. Control matters most.
The fences were so far so it wouldn't be a bandbox. It worked. But it's a nightmare to game.
By the way, OPS, as I understand it applies the park effect to Rox players regardless of whether they hit at Coors or the road. So OPS+ is always a bit screwy for Rox hitters. That's something I just read that was surprising.
And yes, Helton was a HOF. If he'd have played in the Bronx everyone would have forgotten Don Mattingly. Some Guys can hit anywhere
Definitely wish the video talked about the impact on the body and recovery. That's such a big part of playing in Denver that a casual fan may not think about.
Coors Field is wild the altitude, huge outfield, and crazy BABIP completely change the game. Loved the idea of the Rockies focusing on athletic outfielders and strikeout heavy pitchers to really take advantage of their unique park!
the starting staff full of greg maddux
Just wanted to say I love your channel-you deserve way more than 18k subs. Keep it up!
Very good analysis. I think for pitching, the emphasis needs to be on change of speed (great way to get strikeouts). But relying on speed is more dependable than relying on changes in movement I would think in Coors. So they need to look for pitchers with large speed differences in their arsenal. When Nomo pitched the no hitter in, I think, '99, it was a fastball, forkball combination that worked for him.
It's honestly baffling to me that the Rockies have SUCH a unique home field to build a team around and they have NEVER been able to capitalize on it. A factor like Coors field can be a gift or a curse, it all depends on how you use it. The organization KNOWS they're going to be playing half their games under circumstances that no other team plays under and they still haven't been able to craft a team that will play better under those unique circumstances than any other team. And they've had 30 years to do it.
Exactly
Sorry, but I've seen good baseball minds crash on that shore. Dan O'Dowd tried several iterations (including the 07 & 09 teams).
You can build for Coors but you okay 81 elsewhere. I've seen the Rox win upper 50s at home and still end up in 3rd.
The wear down impact of life at altitude is harder than people realize. Adjusting to more normal ball effects is hard too.
But since Bridich was fired they have drafted athletic OFs, hard throwing bullpen arms, and a mix of a lot else.
Sure, they are poorly run but the problem isn't as easy as it seems. Unless rosters expand to 30 or so and you can carry players with both a road and home setup it's going to be hard. And losing 50m from television deal just made it harder
Its their crappy ownership
It's not surprising to me. Even if you mold a team around your home field, then it won't be suitable for half the games you play on the road. Also very good or great pitchers are extremely unlikely to sign with the Rockies. They don't want to wear their arms out or ruin their ERA numbers, which will affect how much money they get later on. Good pitchers have a lot of options with 30 teams in MLB. Teams always say how tired they are after playing 3 or 4 games at Coors Field (even if they win). I can imagine how tired pitchers get after pitching for the Rockies in a season.
Great video, great analysys. You got a new subscriber.
It is the same at Albuquerque where the Isotopes, who are the AAA affiliate for the Rockies, play. High altitude and low humidity since they are in the Rockies. The outfield fences are about the same. So, it is a test of pitchers and outfielders and a joy for hitters. Pitches don't have as much dance so hitters can really connect. Fielders need to be really fast. Albuquerque is a good test for minor leagers who are being prepped for Denver.
Im a 4%er apparently. Keep up the good work.
I’ve been saying this stuff for years. I think another commenter pretty much said all the stuff I wanted to say. One thing the Rockies can do is get some guys with good sinkers and possibly some knucklers. I mean, they. Wes to completely build a different type of team that goes against analytics since Coors is such a lynchpin.
And Hideo Nomo pitched a complete game, no-hitter there.
The reason pitchers have such a hard time, is the density of air there, which affects the physics of the pitches.
I think the Front Office of the Rockies needs to get the Coors Field mentality too.
I love this place!
it's really a big combination... 1. Denver is really in an alpine desert.. dry air... drier in fact than Phoenix (I know, I lived in CO for 8 years and have lived in PHX for the last 7).. so the low humidity actually means that the air is lighter... even moreso than the altitude does.. and that's #2.. the altitude... #3.. its the biggest park in the NL.. by far.. so even when you don't go yard.. there is so much more OF to cover.. if you have a fast OF'ers... you can in fact benefit.. but most teams are average meaning... more holes while still in play...
that humidity though does 2 things... less air resistance... which effect fly balls and pitches.. that resistance is what allows curveballs to curve... so you lost quite a bit on breaking pitches and movement in general... which is why K's are lower. The humidor did make some change in fly balls.. but not as much in the pitching side... really you need to look more at the numbers since they went with the humidor.. but at the same time... the effect is still there because of the Altitude and large park...
13:08, I agree, but Brent Rooker and JJ Bleday are the only two Athletic outfielders I would consider. Esteury Ruiz has some promise to him as well
How dare you forget Lawrence Butler
I agree that Larry Walker took too long to get in the HOF. Larry was still very good on the road as well as playing at Coors. He was a dangerous hitter. He was fun to watch for defense as well. I didn't see Todd as much but he was a very good hitter as well. With pitching there, maybe keeping the ball down to force ground balls. Each ballpark has its features. Can depend on how the wind blows or doesn't.
I was thinking that since the air is thinner at that altitude strikeout pitchers are way less effective(park factor of 89 for SOs at Coors) so a staff that is GB focused with a great infield and outfield defense would have a better chance of getting it done.
One issue not touched upon is Coors Field Hangover. Imagine playing half your games with the physics of Coors and the other half not. Batter/Pitcher matchups look completely different closer to sea level as their pitches behave differently. Another reason its hard to build consistency in the Rockies.
I think for pitching I would go after guys whose offspeed pitches are a lot slower than their fastballs. It keeps hitters off balance without needing as much movement.
i laughed too hard at stretch res todd helton lol
comment was made before seeing larry walker too lmaoo
Higher altitude, less air pressure. The ball travels farther and faster than anyplace else. No mystery.
The size of the Coors Field outfield... When I toured the stadium a few years ago--the Rockies were on a road trip that week--our tour guides told us that the stadium started with their outfield walls at about average distances from home plate. During that time, the stadium allowed so many home runs that the Rockies brass chose to expand the outfield to reduce the number of homers. The consequence was huge gaps between the three outfield zones that allow for a lot more doubles and triples. That's why the Coors Field park factor for triples has consistently been around 200, meaning the average batter is twice as likely to hit a triple at Coors Field than anywhere else.
Coors Field…we used to call it Hitter’s Paradise when I was a kid
You're in scoring position from the on deck circle
All the more impressive that Huston Street and Ubaldo Jimenez found success there. Also, impressively stupid that the Red Sox gave Trevor Story $140M.
Would you extend your analysis with infielders with above average range? Similar reasoning, except to prevent balls getting to the outfield.
Finding the best pitchers and pitching strategy is tough. Looks like walks dont hurt as much, at least as compared to a ball put in play, so trying for swing and miss, even with 3 balls, might be more favorable.
Colorado is a landing spot for players and coaches with unique skillsets.
I wonder if Maddon would be a good manager? He's very non traditional and Colorado is a place where you have to throw out traditional methods.
This is why Ubaldo Jimenez should have won the Cy Young in 2010 unanimously.
Oh, Gosh, Now!
Estadio Alfredo Harp Helú has entered the chat.... ehh the mlb.
No mention of the infamous humidor?
Let us know should the Rockies offer you that GM or assistant job.
For your breakdown of League averages vs Coors averages, did you remove the Rockies from the League numbers?
The league averages do not include games played in Coors
@Wilytics fantastic
Trevor Bauer thrived in one of the highest elevations in baseball. If there's a pitcher that the Rockies could use, and a player that desperately wants to play in the MLB again, even saying he'd do it for league minimum, I have no idea why the Rockies wouldn't go for him. Yes he is blackballed, and yes he was very cringe and controversial, but throughout his days in Japan and Mexico, I'd say he has pretty well exonerated himself.
Came here to say this. Even in his earlier season videos he was always blaming the altitude for his shitty pitching, even so he overcome it and became the best pitcher in the mexican league.
Denver's Coors Field is a copycat of Baltimore's Oriole Park at Camden Yards, except for a few minor changes, and, of course, the altitude. It is one of three copycat stadiums in the Major Leagues that were completed about the same time, just after Oriole Park opened.
I don’t see what rules have been broken. Stadium dimensions rules only state that the foul lines have to a minimum of 325 ft from home plate and center field a minimum of 400 ft.
With a healthy back Kris Bryant will likely hit like 90 homers this up coming season.
This is true
8:48 who tf is TBD😭
and then t mobile park is the literal opposite of coors field. same statistical differences but reversed. crazy
Please do
Influential point....
Why do the Rockies hit for 💩 if the park is so easy to hit in? Pitch placement makes a pitcher good, not the ballpark. A pitchers ability to play mind games with the hitter breads their success. All hitters have weaknesses, and the best pitchers know them and exploit them. If a ballpark determines a players ability, how did they make it the Show in the first place? Superstitious BS doesn't mean crap to a HOF mentality!