Uhhh, let's do a deep dive into the math. NVIDIA has a market cap of $2.92T. The US GDP is about 28T USD. The global GDP is at about 100T USD. If NVIDIA's share price reaches over $2000, it will have a market cap of roughly $50T, which is half the present global GDP. The global GDP is growing on average 3% a year, projected to reach 135T USD in 10 years, so I think that share price of over $2000 is a little too optimistic.
@@skydiveraj22 share buy backs. NVIDIA has a 50 billion dollar share buy back. Share buy back will make the share price go up and not necessarily affect the market cap.
@@irishkenney1 correct, I agree with you 100% about the buyback it will make the per share price increase. But if you have 24.5 billion outstanding shares, and they buyback 50 billion dollars worth that is roughly 4% of the outstanding stock shares that they are buying back. We see 50 billion as a lot of money but compared to 2.5 trillion dollar company it’s such a small amount it won’t affect the price that much.
@@jnkoa33 i am not from America :D so english is my second language, but i guess the correct term is shares? Usually when i search google i type Nvidia stock and it shows Nvidia.
I bought Nvidia in 2016 at $0.8 (spit adjusted). My 10 year Intrinsic value calculation is based on 3 scenarios: first 5 years 30% growth, next 5 years 25% terminal multiple = growth, worst case 25% growth during 10 years. Stock price last in calendar 2035: Normal! $1425; best case (using EPS analyst estimate for calendar 2025) $1787, worst case $1171. Weighted total (60% normal, 10% best case, 30% worst case) and then discounted with a 10% rate, I get a DCF intrinsic value of $167.
Another great video from Parkev. I liked being conservative with p/e ratio plus only 17% growth rate for the 2030-2035 time frame. My only suggestion is doing the same for some more stocks that are listed within the "best growth stocks for September 2024" so that viewers can become more educated in case they want to diversify envidia with other top growth stocks. I wish I was aware of you channel much before i became aware of it 3 months ago! I would have been much more wealthy!😊
I agree with you, unfortunately we can't convince all people.meanwhile everyone is jumping to trivial stock (I mentioned no names) just from hearing little comparison to Nvidia.
Hi from Turkey. I saw your videos while looking for comments on SMCI after the famous report causing a significant decrease in the price. I immediately subscribed because of your clear explanations. Thanks a bunch for this nice video too. I am looking forward to seeing your videos about SMCI as well. .
@@emiraslan070 Smci çok hareketli insanı korkutuyor, birde davası var. O dava olumlu sonuçlanırsa anlaşılan kimse tutamayacak ama olumsuz sonuçlanırsa hisse hali hazırda yüzde 40 aşağıda, biraz daha gömülecek.Smci büyük risk. Nvidia ise herşey yerli yerinde. O yüzden birşey demek çok zor
I vividly remember when I predicted NVDA would hit $1200 (before 1:4 and 1:10 split which would be equivalent of $30 today), someone said that would mean Nvidia be more valuable than Intel which was unimaginable back then. Look how things turned out 😊
those who say that ai is ballon, do not consider this fact. nvidia will have one major problem - to suppply 😂. demand for nvidia products is growing and will be soaring.
Thanks for the interesting episode. I imagine that Amazon stock is being exposed to retail business in less unpredictable than Nvidia which is a pure AI business. Could you please do a similar exercise, i.e., is predicting the price of Amazon share in 10 years.
Even if there are a lot of assomptions as the 10y future is really hard to predict i like having projection potential on the return an asset can provide during the long run. Thank you for this type of video.
Hi, have a question to yahoo finance - it states in summary section EPS of 2,13 (TTM) and in analysis tab in earnings history section 0,68+0,56+0,47+0,37 = 2,08. If I go to WSJ or google finance and summ 4 last quorters I will get the 2,13. For AMD the deviation is much higher - 4 last quoters from analytics tab give 0,69+0,62+0,77+0,7 = 2,78 and summary shows EPS (TTM) of 0,84. Why there is a discrepancy there?
I own Nvidia stock for the long term I don't have too many shares unfortunately but if I had to buy another one what do you suggest for long-term Lam Research or broadcom thank you brother
Nvidia branches of into robotics and will be a leader in that in the future. So we could see a split at a certain point between chips and robotics, not sure how that would effect the stock. And which company to hold stock in when that happens.
That would mean in 2035, roughly Nvidia would have a market cap of around 45-50 trillion dollars. I think in ten years from now is way far fetched, maybe just maybe I can see a 20 trillion company which would put the per share around $1,000 a share, and that is pushing it.
10 yrs is a long time and lots of things can happen. Its not just GPU or AI Supercomputer TAM, there is the impending battle for Inference chip TAN on the Edge. There are the Hyperscalers and OpenAI doing their own AI Training chips. Also does the Hypothesis of of Scaling reach a peak instead of linearly ? If it reaches a peak and plateaus out, the need for more Training GPUs will decrease. And where does Nvidia go in its NIM Software strategy which aligns with with Agentic AI. One thing for sure is Jensen Huang is a visionary and understands all these things and more. But how does NVDA stock plays out in 10 yrs is probably a bridge too far. I think a 3-5 yr outlook that is constantly revised yearly is a better model. And that analysis needs to be technical more than looking at current financial numbers.
I am interested in their revenue diversification. For example what outlook the custom chip unit will do as well as how fast the software subscription will increase. Also what else they could offer in the future.
Maintaining margin is key… All of the other businesses support the 70+ margin, or its protection…. Adding businesses isn’t taken lightly… except at google…. Where they do goofy businesses on a whim, to great disappointment to the investors… 😃
@@AC-jk8wq i am an investor in google, which goofy businesses do you mean? I rather see these approaches as ways to improve their moat. SaaS businesses can have a margin higher than 70%, same for the custom chip business.
In recent weeks, lnvestors have become concerned that Nvidia has simply come too far, too fast, and they are wondering whether the hectic pace of AI adoption could continue. Nvidia answered that question with a resounding "yes," but given the stock's parabolic gains, blockbuster results simply weren't enough.I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas..
On high tech, the chips mfg belong to utility companies. No company is able to stay on the mountain forever, '80 intc, '90 amat, etc. Apple or Microsoft are different apples. No comparison value.
Nvidia has already made me a multimillionaire today . I first discovered Nvidia in 2017. there have been dark moments to persevere, the universe gives you moments to triumph. Do you have what it takes? 10 years from now, will you be triumphant or be kicking yourself?
I feel comfy owning 15% SMH watching your videos knowing that my effective 5% NVIDIA and TSMC stock will continue to do well, thank you for your hard work
You seem very optimistic. Another company may come up with something better or cheaper. Technology may change. Or there may be poor ROI on all this AI investment. For now, enjoy Nvidia, and try to milk as much as you can as an investor
My 6,240 NVDL shares went up this week over 100 K so i sold off 1,200 shares and diversified. I think Nvidia could pop to $ 170 this year and $ 220 within a year. Nvidia will continue to have huge growth for at least a couple more years then we will see how they are doing. I think within two years Nvidia will be the number one market cap company ever. ❤😂🎉
@@bojankojic108 Nvidia faces billion-dollar patent challenge over its new AI Blackwell chips A Texas tech firm is seeking billions in damages and threatening to block Nvidia’s rollout of its Blackwell AI chips this year, alleging patent infringement. Xockets claims that Nvidia’s AI acceleration technology wasn’t invented in-house but “stolen” by Mellanox, a competitor Nvidia acquired in 2020 for nearly $7 billion.
@@bojankojic108 I posted a few paragraphs from the story about apparently it got magically deleted. You can find it yourself with a search of Blackwell lawsuit. I'm not a short I am long on Nvidia, however I think it's important to discuss all possible aspectsz good and bad
Projectionin10 years ？ You must be kidding, right ? Nvidia could lose its dominance anytime, all you need is someone come up with a new design or new approach to do AI. Such long term projection is meaningless.
You can only make such a prediction by stating that this is, and can only be based on what has been with regards to Nvidia up until this point. Meaning, you have to negate all that may happen and make your prediction based on Nvidia past to this point. Which negates things like possibility of China attacking Taiwan prior to Nvidia having a stable chip production plant based here in America. Again, there are so many variables across the globe that can affect any stock, no matter how great, so all predictions can only be based on the past with the caveat that nothing happens that has not already happened in past time frame of Nvidia's existence. We are also on the precipice of the future of Ai and technology. That alone, in itself, can not be figured. There is no telling what the future of Ai will need because there is no telling what humans and Ai will create going forward. It is almost absolutely ridiculous to even consider such a task as trying to estimate what Nvidia will be in 10 years. Not only as a stock. but as a company.
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Uhhh, let's do a deep dive into the math. NVIDIA has a market cap of $2.92T. The US GDP is about 28T USD. The global GDP is at about 100T USD. If NVIDIA's share price reaches over $2000, it will have a market cap of roughly $50T, which is half the present global GDP. The global GDP is growing on average 3% a year, projected to reach 135T USD in 10 years, so I think that share price of over $2000 is a little too optimistic.
People are delusional.
@@skydiveraj22 share buy backs. NVIDIA has a 50 billion dollar share buy back. Share buy back will make the share price go up and not necessarily affect the market cap.
You put 100k now you will be millionaire before 2030
@@irishkenney1 correct, I agree with you 100% about the buyback it will make the per share price increase. But if you have 24.5 billion outstanding shares, and they buyback 50 billion dollars worth that is roughly 4% of the outstanding stock shares that they are buying back. We see 50 billion as a lot of money but compared to 2.5 trillion dollar company it’s such a small amount it won’t affect the price that much.
This is the common sense that people don't see. You can't have one company that's 30% of the world's GDP!
Bought 20 Nvidia shares so far this year, and i will increase this number with atleast the double before new year.
You bought 20 Nvidia stocks? Cool! Which ones did you buy?
I purchase Nvidia stock. I didn't know Nvidia had multiple stocks.
@@jnkoa33 does it make you feel better to degrade others? Perhaps you feel more intelligent as a result?
@@jnkoa33 i am not from America :D so english is my second language, but i guess the correct term is shares? Usually when i search google i type Nvidia stock and it shows Nvidia.
don’t explain yourself to that guy. It’s not worth it. Congratulations on buying shares!!
I too purchased 20 shares this year. Ignore the douche. Welcome to the club. HoDL
I bought Nvidia in 2016 at $0.8 (spit adjusted). My 10 year Intrinsic value calculation is based on 3 scenarios: first 5 years 30% growth, next 5 years 25% terminal multiple = growth,
worst case 25% growth during 10 years. Stock price last in calendar 2035: Normal! $1425; best case (using EPS analyst estimate for calendar 2025) $1787, worst case $1171.
Weighted total (60% normal, 10% best case, 30% worst case) and then discounted with a 10% rate, I get a DCF intrinsic value of $167.
167 by next year 😂😂 dream on bro
@@chojunkit you don't understand what a 10 year DCF valuation is.
Really happy this comment turned to 31k views. You deserve this. Awesome content 👏!
Us too!
Another great video from Parkev. I liked being conservative with p/e ratio plus only 17% growth rate for the 2030-2035 time frame. My only suggestion is doing the same for some more stocks that are listed within the "best growth stocks for September 2024" so that viewers can become more educated in case they want to diversify envidia with other top growth stocks. I wish I was aware of you channel much before i became aware of it 3 months ago! I would have been much more wealthy!😊
We are glad you are with us now! Thanks for joining.
I think Nvidia has a lot more upside than most people realize.
I agree with you, unfortunately we can't convince all people.meanwhile everyone is jumping to trivial stock (I mentioned no names) just from hearing little comparison to Nvidia.
Considering we're only at the beginning of this whole AI revolution than ya that's a good bet.
Based on my conservative approach, nvda will hit 550 usd in 5 years.
🤡
you're right in the middle of my normal - best case scenario
@@phvaessen Hi Phvaessen.. so your normal - best case scenario is 1000usd in 5 years ?
I will super happy with that! 🙏😊
@@djliomaliaslimic that is not what I said, but around $550
Parkev, I love these videos so much! Thank you for sharing your insight
On a side note you look exhausted get some rest!
Thank you. Have you done this same scenario with PLTR? If not, do you mind please? Great information
Not yet!
Hi from Turkey. I saw your videos while looking for comments on SMCI after the famous report causing a significant decrease in the price. I immediately subscribed because of your clear explanations. Thanks a bunch for this nice video too. I am looking forward to seeing your videos about SMCI as well. .
Thanks for sharing.
Abe hangisini alalım smcı yoksa nvida
🇹🇷
@@emiraslan070 Smci çok hareketli insanı korkutuyor, birde davası var. O dava olumlu sonuçlanırsa anlaşılan kimse tutamayacak ama olumsuz sonuçlanırsa hisse hali hazırda yüzde 40 aşağıda, biraz daha gömülecek.Smci büyük risk. Nvidia ise herşey yerli yerinde. O yüzden birşey demek çok zor
NVDA had 6 splits since 2000. So next 10 years, NVDA could have 2 more splits. The price will be at least $2000 without splits.
Buy in at the 94$ rate when it drops before the holidays. Hold for 10 years. Make 20x.
It might not go that low since Larry Ellison boost
When do you think it will drop?
How about Palantir? Don't you think the valuation is crazy high?
According to two analysts the 2030 EPS is expected to be $5.81. Even that 17% growth afterwards you have is way too high.
The range of outcomes is wide for Nvidia, to be sure.
if this prediction will come true, NVDIA should reach a 30 Trillion market cap, do you think is it possible?
in 10 years it could/will be
Depends on how much money USA will print till then
Really can't imagine that....
10 years ago, did you believe that NVDIA would be a 3T giant?
I vividly remember when I predicted NVDA would hit $1200 (before 1:4 and 1:10 split which would be equivalent of $30 today), someone said that would mean Nvidia be more valuable than Intel which was unimaginable back then. Look how things turned out 😊
Remember data centers needs to refresh every 5 years
those who say that ai is ballon, do not consider this fact. nvidia will have one major problem - to suppply 😂. demand for nvidia products is growing and will be soaring.
@@bojankojic108 exactly, some nvda chips are sold out until end of 2025, it is rediculous, lets see the financial report on 11/20.
Parker, will you prepare such a video for Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon? Thank you very much for such a valuable information.
That's the plan! Thank you for joining as a member.
Thanks 😊 as always great details
Thanks for watching!
Thanks for the interesting episode.
I imagine that Amazon stock is being exposed to retail business in less unpredictable than Nvidia which is a pure AI business. Could you please do a similar exercise, i.e., is predicting the price of Amazon share in 10 years.
I bought 200 shares of nvidia @115 ; i hope it touches $400 by Dec2025
That’s only like $80K though
Even if there are a lot of assomptions as the 10y future is really hard to predict i like having projection potential on the return an asset can provide during the long run. Thank you for this type of video.
Amazing video, thank you so much parkev
I hold 250 NVIDIA shares rn; will add more and hold.
Not enough to make a difference for predicted growth rate. You should be at 1,000+ shares to get any real sort of return.
@@Ac22768 if you transfer some money, sure :)
Good attempt to chart the probable 10 yr price target of nvda. Encouraging for long term nvda holders. Have to navigate storms along the way.
This is just the beginning for NVDA
If this is even 50% correct, say, the stock ends at only 500/share, why wouldn't the whole world put their money in the stock today?
Thanks, Parkev. I agree, that your FC could be realistic. But consulting the crystal ball is not exactly easy 😱🤑😄
So true!
One important point is to know the present value of the shares in 10 years. With the real inflation doubling every few years.
Bold analysis. Ten years is a long time.
Hi, have a question to yahoo finance - it states in summary section EPS of 2,13 (TTM) and in analysis tab in earnings history section 0,68+0,56+0,47+0,37 = 2,08. If I go to WSJ or google finance and summ 4 last quorters I will get the 2,13. For AMD the deviation is much higher - 4 last quoters from analytics tab give 0,69+0,62+0,77+0,7 = 2,78 and summary shows EPS (TTM) of 0,84. Why there is a discrepancy there?
do you believe they will allow dividends?
We don’t know where is going to be next week, let alone 10 years from now.
Thank you, very valuable.🎉
You're so welcome!
Thanks!
Welcome!
I own Nvidia stock for the long term I don't have too many shares unfortunately but if I had to buy another one what do you suggest for long-term Lam Research or broadcom thank you brother
Thank you for the video.
can you do the same analysis for googl, amzn and msft?
Nvidia branches of into robotics and will be a leader in that in the future. So we could see a split at a certain point between chips and robotics, not sure how that would effect the stock. And which company to hold stock in when that happens.
i think about 4000 usd per share.
That would mean in 2035, roughly Nvidia would have a market cap of around 45-50 trillion dollars. I think in ten years from now is way far fetched, maybe just maybe I can see a 20 trillion company which would put the per share around $1,000 a share, and that is pushing it.
10 yrs is a long time and lots of things can happen. Its not just GPU or AI Supercomputer TAM, there is the impending battle for Inference chip TAN on the Edge. There are the Hyperscalers and OpenAI doing their own AI Training chips. Also does the Hypothesis of of Scaling reach a peak instead of linearly ? If it reaches a peak and plateaus out, the need for more Training GPUs will decrease. And where does Nvidia go in its NIM Software strategy which aligns with with Agentic AI. One thing for sure is Jensen Huang is a visionary and understands all these things and more. But how does NVDA stock plays out in 10 yrs is probably a bridge too far. I think a 3-5 yr outlook that is constantly revised yearly is a better model. And that analysis needs to be technical more than looking at current financial numbers.
I am interested in their revenue diversification. For example what outlook the custom chip unit will do as well as how fast the software subscription will increase. Also what else they could offer in the future.
Maintaining margin is key…
All of the other businesses support the 70+ margin, or its protection….
Adding businesses isn’t taken lightly… except at google…. Where they do goofy businesses on a whim, to great disappointment to the investors…
😃
@@AC-jk8wq i am an investor in google, which goofy businesses do you mean? I rather see these approaches as ways to improve their moat. SaaS businesses can have a margin higher than 70%, same for the custom chip business.
I booked marked & and liked this video, will watch it ten years from now :)
Thank you
Welcome!
Thanks!👌👍💥💯
Thank you too!
How much of the earnings are organic vs inflation
In recent weeks, lnvestors have become concerned that Nvidia has simply come too far, too fast, and they are wondering whether the hectic pace of AI adoption could continue. Nvidia answered that question with a resounding "yes," but given the stock's parabolic gains, blockbuster results simply weren't enough.I'm still looking for companies to make additions to my $350K portfolio, to boost performance. Here for ideas..
On high tech, the chips mfg belong to utility companies. No company is able to stay on the mountain forever, '80 intc, '90 amat, etc. Apple or Microsoft are different apples. No comparison value.
Chip price $70.000 Forecast 800.000 psc...... I just wait no problem.
Always good 🎉
Thanks again!
Jetblue stock predictions? Seems like a great low to buy at.
Thanks Professor for another awesome video about a stock I own.
❤😂🎉
My pleasure!
How can we justify a market cap of more than 25T? Currently the entire American stock market is 46T
Inflation.
The entire market could bubble to 460T, by then 25T is not excessive.
And population is continuing to explode.
Money printing
Can you do Nio please.
Greetings from Germany
It’s still a good time to buy in my opinion
Indian GDP Is $5 trillion.... ...NVDA market will be $50 trillion by 2030.,,,
Where is india 😂😂😂
😂
Nvidia has already made me a multimillionaire today . I first discovered Nvidia in 2017. there have been dark moments to persevere, the universe gives you moments to triumph. Do you have what it takes? 10 years from now, will you be triumphant or be kicking yourself?
200k since covid.
If the market is 5 trillion then nvidia can reach 40 trillion market cap why not ?
I feel comfy owning 15% SMH watching your videos knowing that my effective 5% NVIDIA and TSMC stock will continue to do well, thank you for your hard work
Good stuff
Only 3 year olds say “comfy.”
Hi Parkev, I am still waiting for a video on GCT. Thanks
That would be great.
I’m all in NVIDIA
You seem very optimistic. Another company may come up with something better or cheaper. Technology may change. Or there may be poor ROI on all this AI investment. For now, enjoy Nvidia, and try to milk as much as you can as an investor
They are so far ahead of every AI company. You’re talking out your ass bro
Can u research & analyze "TELO", please ❤
In 10 years AMD will be up there too
Hello. Can you do the same for alphabet and Amazon.
My 6,240 NVDL shares went up this week over 100 K so i sold off 1,200 shares and diversified.
I think Nvidia could pop to $ 170 this year and $ 220 within a year.
Nvidia will continue to have huge growth for at least a couple more years then we will see how they are doing.
I think within two years Nvidia will be the number one market cap company ever.
❤😂🎉
Ron, it's getting tiring to hear you brag about your shares. If you've done so well with Nvidia, why are you on here?
@@BethCronk-bd3nk
To learn of course.
Why are you here ?
Humble yourself
We all know where Nvidia will be in 10 years, on the moon.🚀👩🚀 for the love of god please make a video on more high risk bangers like Cybin CYBN.
10 years from now Nvidia price will be at $5k per share
1000 shares 40 dollars🎉🎉
Yeah so which university are you teaching finance at?
Same video for Smci pls
You dont take into consideration that:
1. NVIDIA is heavily overvalued in the moment
2. Inflation fucks with the EPS
Can't predict the price 10 years from now.
I dont know about this prediction bud. Thats way too high.
so you believe that we are gonna reach 30 trillion dollars in market cap? meh
No one going to talk about the Blackwell lawsuit?
HATER. BOT.
no one is talking about this. does it really exsist?
@@bojankojic108
Nvidia faces billion-dollar patent challenge over its new AI Blackwell chips
A Texas tech firm is seeking billions in damages and threatening to block Nvidia’s rollout of its Blackwell AI chips this year, alleging patent infringement.
Xockets claims that Nvidia’s AI acceleration technology wasn’t invented in-house but “stolen” by Mellanox, a competitor Nvidia acquired in 2020 for nearly $7 billion.
@@bojankojic108 I posted a few paragraphs from the story about apparently it got magically deleted. You can find it yourself with a search of Blackwell lawsuit. I'm not a short I am long on Nvidia, however I think it's important to discuss all possible aspectsz good and bad
@@bojankojic108 my replies to you keep getting deleted. Search web for Blackwell lawsuit.
holders will loose 2 trillions $ when price drop to 40$
in 2100 m $,in 2500 b $, in 3000 year trillion $🤔
now nvidia is 144
Young James Jones Scott Garcia Paul
Waste of time talking 10 years into future... don't bother wasting your time.... zero value in this
Projectionin10 years ？ You must be kidding, right ? Nvidia could lose its dominance anytime, all you need is someone come up with a new design or new approach to do AI. Such long term projection is meaningless.
Williams William Young Thomas Lee Anthony
NVDA will go to $1000
I own 1,000,000.00 in there stock. I want to make 100,000,000 million in 10 years.
their stock
Ok
You can only make such a prediction by stating that this is, and can only be based on what has been with regards to Nvidia up until this point. Meaning, you have to negate all that may happen and make your prediction based on Nvidia past to this point. Which negates things like possibility of China attacking Taiwan prior to Nvidia having a stable chip production plant based here in America. Again, there are so many variables across the globe that can affect any stock, no matter how great, so all predictions can only be based on the past with the caveat that nothing happens that has not already happened in past time frame of Nvidia's existence. We are also on the precipice of the future of Ai and technology. That alone, in itself, can not be figured. There is no telling what the future of Ai will need because there is no telling what humans and Ai will create going forward. It is almost absolutely ridiculous to even consider such a task as trying to estimate what Nvidia will be in 10 years. Not only as a stock. but as a company.