The Recession That Didn’t Bark | GoodFellows
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- Опубликовано: 19 июн 2024
- This week, the self-moderating GoodFellows (Bill Whalen is on vacation) ponder why the much predicted recession hasn’t materialized-at least not yet. The Fellows also discuss the national security implications of a recession and why some economists may be a little too optimistic about economic conditions in the near future. Then, we check back in on the war in Ukraine and close with some thoughts about summer, featuring a cameo appearance from General Funkenstein himself.
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
00:00 Introduction
1:28 Where did the recession go, is it just starting?
5:53 Banking Crisis
7:42 Other Geopolitical shocks + Inflation rates/numbers
14:18 What will happen to the interest rate hikes? + Labor Market
19:54 Housing and Debt + Capacity and Defense Budget
29:09 Ukraine joining Nato + Cold War II
41:51 How is it going with China + who is winning?
46:56 Lighting Round
Im a blue collar guy of 42 yrs and i think its terribly important for the regular folks to engage with intellectuals. Thank you all!
Very approachable intellectuals
This, although I've still got some money on my theory (which I hope is wrong, and which probably is wrong) that the Wagner thing was a ruse 😂
Blue collar sometimes means common sense. and our intellectuals aren't always right. But Neil and Kotkin though have been right about Russia for a long time.
Right there with ya Mark :) Having said that, it's a different story when I try to read Niall's books (of which I've purchased 3) My blue collar vocabulary is not up for the task. If I dropped some contractor trade speak on him his eyes might glaze over. Lol We all have our attributes :)
Aren’t they the ones who got us here 🫤🤷♀️
0:04: 📈 Despite predictions of an imminent recession, the US economy has added jobs and maintained a low unemployment rate, possibly due to interest rates not being substantially raised above inflation.
5:27: ⚠ The possibility of a banking crisis and other geopolitical shocks could lead to inflationary pressure and a global depression.
10:42: ⚙ The speaker discusses the causes and potential future of inflation, highlighting the role of fiscal theory and supply chain disruptions.
15:54: 📊 The labor market is strong with low unemployment and job opportunities, but there are long-term problems with low labor force participation. The housing market is behaving differently than in previous recessions.
21:05: 💰 The US economy is doing well due to low mortgage rates, but the increasing federal debt may squeeze discretionary spending, including defense.
26:39: ⚔ The defense budget is gradually getting squeezed, causing the US to fall behind China in terms of naval capacity and technological capabilities.
32:59: 🔍 The use of drones in warfare is a significant change in the character of warfare, but not the nature of war itself.
38:13: 🌍 The US should lead more in getting Ukraine into NATO to defend against Russia and bolster morale, but it may take time and consensus.
42:29: 🌊 The speaker believes that the US is winning in terms of recognizing the dangers of giving China power over the economy and taking measures to make supply chains less reliant on China.
47:33: 🏖 The speakers discuss their preferences for summer activities and destinations, with HR recommending Gershwin's 'Summertime' and Will Smith's 'Summertime' as summer songs.
52:30: 🎶 The hosts discuss their love for Green Day and encourage letting kids choose the music in the summer.
Recap by Tammy AI
5😂4😮😢9i9😅😅😅😊😊❤ 18:07 18:08 18:08 18:09 18:31 😊p0o😊😊aaa000😊😊q0😅😊😊😊q++qq1+😊😊 24:16 q
Your shows are truly a gift, and I consider all of you personal heroes of mine. Keep up the fantastic work! (P.S. More Kotkin, please!)
Philly Pride, yeah HR !! Never forgetting your roots, buddy !!
"Inflate the debt away" That phrase seems key. Borne on the backs of the peasantry and retirees.
Retirees? Imagine getting a mortgage at these rates. Those of us who got a fixed rate or refinance before Biden should be thankful.
The conversation inspired an image of the Titanic orchestra in my mind....
They're duds. They are afraid to address the WEF 4th INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION and the GREAT RESET.... Are they really that stupid?
Schwab said THEY are restructuring the Global Economy.
Controlled banking looming right off the bow. CBDC digital.
Control of YOUR spending.
I’m a simple chef, but I watch this show to be more informed and hear these awesome perspectives
H.R. McMaster: Right about his home mortgage. Wrong about the prospects for Ukraine's offensive.
Guys, guys, guys. There is only one place in the world to spend Summer, and that is on a beach in Australia. To be born Australian, is to win the lottery of life!
Bravo gentlemen!
Having a harder time getting thru these without yelling at my screen than in times past. Would love some more VDH on these. About the only reason I follow Hoover at this point.
"Subsidies poured down various ratholes". Is there some way to find out about this problem in more detail? I know about agriculture subsidies (I am from Illinois). There are a lot of corn subsidies, which my friends who are famers love, but which seems to me to be a bad idea. But is there any overview of subsidies that go out in all areas?
That's how administration's hide the real stats. You have to go dept level and dig. I used the grant listings to do what I needed. Non Gov entities. Lobby groups. Too. Follow the money.
I wish more and more people would watch the informative videos provided by the Hoover Institute as it gives you a Conservative perspective.
They don’t want that type of perspective, I mean they hope you will listen to Bernie and AOC.
Why would we listen to the very people that caused this 🤷♀️
Great episode, thanks for the retro retro music. Have a great summer.
been looking for the next episode. always a good day when a GoodFellows episode drops.
maybe they should have invited Paul Krugman on as a guest for this episode?
Thank you for the great commentaries and ideas. I wonder if you could have Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, or Byron Wien as guests on the Hoover Goodfellas show…I would love to hear you guys discuss several other topics. 1. How will obesity in North America affect our economic future? I have read that by 2030, 60% of Americans will be obese according to reading from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. 2. With current inflation trends and the gradualism of inflation in the US, how long will persistent increasing inflation last, 3-5 years, or longer? 3. Can you discuss how high inflation & high taxation destroys societies and empires, for example the Ottoman Empire, and what countries are headed in that direction today? 4. Can you discuss Senator Rubio’s comments about Tech & AI in relation to developed societies , (the “biggest nightmare in the long term” is the job loss that A.I.) ?
As Always, Such a pleasure to listen to the Good Fellows.
Gaurav, India
Regarding Ukraine's prospects, you can see these men ever so slowly coming to the realization that we have a losing hand. Still, they don't seem to realize yet -- or don't let on if they do -- just how profoundly we are outmatched. Watching these men over the next few months, to see how they handle the dis-confirmation of their previous proclamations, will be fascinating,
Outmatched in what sense? When the war started, conventional wisdom was that Ukraine would fall immediately. Russia has been shown to be a paper tiger. They've taken a hundred thousand casualties and have almost nothing to show for it. Their economy is in ruins and hundreds of thousands of their best and brightest young people have left. And they are tied up in a land war like WW1. Sure, Ukraine probably isn't going to mount a successful counteroffensive, but it's Russia that's stuck, not the West. Putin has made a gigantic error and his entire Western frontier is now much more prepared and alert. And he clearly can't even control some of his subordinates.
They're still borderline delusional. To call what the Ukrainians are doing now as 'strategic' is insane. To speak with a straight face about how Russian troops are poorly trained and about their heavy losses while conveniently ignoring Ukraines bigger losses and even worse trained army that is now being dragged to the front line is nuts. It's boarding on propaganda.
US is "outmatched" by Russia????
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
My frustration as well
Ukraine doesn't have to win outright, only make it PUTIN'S VIETNAM. More Russian casualties in 1 year versus Soviet-Afghan war in 10 years. plus coups like Wagner
Great as always❤
I remain convinced that unemployment numbers are of little value and are probably fudged by the government for political purposes. My reasoning? Name anything about the government these days that has not been politicized. What counts is workforce participation rate. So, how is that number these days? And what portion of all jobs today are "off the books", with so few Americans actually willing to do the difficult work such as agricultural labor, landscaping, home construction, paving, etc.? As for inflation, John is spot on about the real effect of inflation, which is that prices are not coming down. The best evidence is at the supermarket. Krugman's view about how inflation affects the average American is as clueless today as it was in the past. And tell me, gentlemen, are we not seeing more threats of strikes as part of labor contract negotiations? Does Krugman think the likely outcome, which is rising wages, will not have an inflationary impact? Is his "victory lap" perhaps a bit early?
An economic doom loop for wages.
I didn't know not borrowing money was a Sco'ish thing, but that's good to know 😂
That lightening round clip was quite a shock.
On the housing front, I think there is one thing people underestimate. That one thing is refinancing. I bought my house 25 years ago (paid it off twice, but that is another story). Just before that, rates had started to come down. On my previous house I think I refinanced once in six years, but many of mt neighbors were refinancing annually. So, as was pointed out, the current rates are not bad historically (and I mean a longer history than the last 20 years) AND, as pointed out, unemployment is very low. In the early 1980s the first two houses were lease/purchase deals. I didn't pull the trigger on either of those, but there were personal reasons for that. The main reason was that the rates were about 18%.
Actually, in the early 1990s when I moved to the Midwest we were in the midst of a "real" recession with high unemployment. I looked at 200 homes in the city (outside of Chicago) and took notes on 60. Then my wife found a FSBO which we bought.
Always thoughtful and entertaining.
Thanks for making it a fun listen and including broader geopolitical subjects.
JT...hell yeah. Carolina on my mind...👍
Great show as usual, gentlemen. One thing to keep in mind with the quoted numbers of Chinese Navy ships - quantity does not equal capability. Many ships included in those numbers would fit in a high school gymnasium with very limited range in comparison the U.S. Navy. They are addressing that rapidly, with larger ships that have longer ranges, but let's keep in mind much of the current fleet has regional range at best.
And what about the Australian summer???????🤣🤣🤣
Definitely up there on the list
Great again, looking forward to the next viewer questions episode 👍👍👍
I was hoping HR would give the Beastie Boys a mention in his choice of summer song. One day…
Much enjoyed as usual, gentlemen. Thank you so much, and have a wonderful summer!
Another great video 👍
Nice to see a slightly more optimistic Niall!
Excellent as always! One question that I feel needs proper insight from the GoodFellows gang: is there any historical precedent where one single country / area / city state controlled so much of the world's production capacity as China does today? And how was that precedent fixed? How did those downstream players unlatch themselves peacefully?
I rarely click on anything so fast as a new Goodfellows episode. Thank you, you three, for another hour of insight added to the world.
Great podcast! Thank you. It is a must listen to for all the angles it takes on.
Understanding that your focus is more international & US, I wonder if at some point soon you could tackle head on (a rugby metaphor) the South African situation, vis-a-vis its support for Russia in its horror Ukrainian endeavour and, perhaps more importantly, the implications for the US’s & other allies’ foreign policies should South Africa dig even further into the BRIC’s web?Areas of interest:
- The potential launch of a ‘BRICS dollar’.
- South Africa’s access to, knowledge of & influence on other African countries.
- The position of South Africa’s ports (including Simon’s Town naval port, recently in the press).
(FYI - I also listen to Battlegrounds)
Niger Coup leader joins long line of US trained mutineers…US trained officers have conducted in at least 6 coups in neighboring Burkina Faso and Mali since 2012. They have also been involved in recent takeovers in Gambia (2014) Guinea (2021) Mauritania (2008) and Niger. (2023)
Another informative fun Ep. Dank Ya!
Good show gentlemen! Employment has somewhat been decoupled from recession-economic thinking by poor demographics. I simple make note because it was not mentioned with the Feds current thinking on why it does what it does.
Great episode with multiple interesting facets
It would good if GoodFellows discuss in one of these sessions Turkey's role in NATO. The idea that Turkey held hostage the membership of Sweden and Finland in NATO shows Turkey's interests aren't compatible with the rest of NATO and Europe.
I love the GoodFellows, and eagerly await each new video. I wonder when they are going to talk about what is happening in Israel, and how dangerous it is for a country with non-conventional capabilities to potentially go into a civil war.
People still buy homes at 19%. My parents did, twice, using an ARM. My realtor friends are back in black and selling. The market only had a seasonal hiccup in desirable Nashville. Perhaps, economies will be more drastically contrasted regionally as three large states, CA / IL / NY, decline and states like TX / GA / TN / FL continue to prosper.
We just bought an idle plant from ADM, so I have been speaking with OEM's about new equipment and delivery times, all are US manufacturers. Delivery times are up to 25 months after downpayment. Most are around 6 months. Everyone is swamped to deliver new orders.
A friend who own modified starch polymer manufacturing is having to use one additive source from India instead of Europe and Indians have issues actually meeting specs in most everything, even simple chemicals.
Another great video I do love these ! I’d love to get your take on the use of A.I. in warfare and Palantir and all its doing in the defence realm! Be cool to get some discussion about space and how that is the new frontier for the new great powers ! Can’t wait for the next one !
The Goodfellows are always disappointed when there isn't a disaster to blame on someone else. Certainly apparent that they are still fighting for an elusive victory
from their deeply dug trenches.
Doesn’t NATO require that a country not have contested boundaries before it can join NATO?
Biz Markie, Will Smith, James Taylor.
Thanks guys.
What are Bill Whalens desert Island Discs?
Niall - you are not a Boomer!
Really good fellas…
I like to see Niall expand on what he said in Kiev at the very beginning of the war. Specifically, that the Ukrainians couldn’t do what the Poles had done. I took that to be a recognition that Ukraine is part of Orthodox civilisation while Poland is Roman Catholic and therefore naturally part of the West. Ever since I have seen the war in Ukraine as to some extent a civil war within Orthodox Civilisation. From that perspective Ukraine has chosen to try to go forward, to evolve, while Russia has chosen to try to go back to the past, and is devolving. Ironically, Alexander Dugan's view that Russia's destiny is to self actualise as a Eurasian challenger to Western Civilisation, is being led by Ukraine. The depths of destruction and evil that Dostoyevsky documented over 100 years ago is being confronted by the heroism of the Ukrainian people but I believe they can prevail only if they can throw off their own habitual corruption. Personally, as someone born in the early 40s I also see this war as an example of Toynbee’s theory that civilisations arise in response to a serious but still overcomeable challenge.
@lgude, you make some great points.
Hey guys, Kenny Loggins is at The Mountain Winery in Saratoga for two dates in October.......ideal weather on the Penninsula.
It would be helpful to have some demographics about how many people have retired in the past 5 years and how many people have dropped out of the work force due receiving government benefits or drug addiction.
We are told that there is a demand for workers, but no data about what should be available.
I find that people generally have the wrong expectations when asking economists to predict the next recession. You do not go to your doctor and ask whether you will become sick next year and how bad it will be. Their expertise is still very useful.
Incredible conversation as always. Please can HR talk to the recent downing of hypersonic missiles in Ukraine and what implications that may have for porcupining Taiwan viz aircraft carrier groups?
I don't care what you say - for regular folks, we HAVE been in a recession! You might not feel it - but the rest of us do.
Fed hiking and recessions is +/- 9 months but (a) that is based on real rates being positive, and (b) occurs during fiscal contraction, not a massive stimulus (even with “automatic stabilizers” and even with unemployment lower than NAIRU/non cyclical unemployment rate, our current fiscal deficit is growing as % of GDP)
Unemployment is a lagging indicator-by the time the labor market weakens, we will already have been in a recession. If you look at leading indicators, and indicators such as freight/cargo data, new orders, job openings, hours worked, etc. you will see that a recession is just around the corner.
The funny thing about tomorrow is that it always remains just a day away.
People have been saying that since 2021 now
I'm not an economist. But I don't think one has to be in order to recognize the looming threat of an upward-spiralling national debt. It seems to me the most pressing national-security problem the United States faces...and hardly anyone is talking about it. Specifically, that break-point where interest payments to service that debt starts to exceed defense spending, but also the larger problem of those burgeoning non-discretionary payments taking an ever-larger bite out of *everything*. Philosophically I'm very much a limited-government, low-taxes/spending, etc etc kind of guy, but as a practical matter I see no way we can lower taxes...or even maintain current taxation levels...until something is done about deficit spending on a yearly basis and addressing the national debt on a long-term basis. I would actually favor a tax hike IF it was presented as part of a credible, coherent plan to balance the budget and start paying down some of the principal, and IF I had any confidence whatsoever that current and future politicians (regardless of party) would hold to such a plan. I'm skeptical that such would be the case.
The Fed printed money like no tomorrow during COVID and home prices went up 40% in two years. That and zero interest rates. I want to buy but not at these current prices. 42% of income going to home payments is nuts. The Fed must raise interest rates to bring down the cost of home ownership.
Very compelling and undeniable trends, my only question is do these trends really apply in the context of the under or non developing world?
53:20 really? You read the comments? Could you guys touch the current status of political islam and it's effect on Europe, especially in Great-Britain and the Netherlands? I'm a huge fan of Ayaan Hirsi Ali and since she happens to be the wife of our esteemed host today, it would be beyond awesome to have her as a guest on the show!
While we are falling behind China in the # of ships (although not necessarily capability), we also have allies in the Pacific, in particular Japan's 150 ship navy, and S Korea has a 140 ship navy, although probably not blue water. So concern is real but keep in mind that it's not just the US facing China.
I would add that China seems to (almost inexplicably) be doing more to decouple from the west than the west is doing to decouple from China, even as they howl about it.
Japan has changed. Starting with their constitution. China looms just off the reefs.
good points sir
Да и китай тоже считает корабли японии и северной кореи своими . И китай тоже получается не один.......😂😂😂😂
And China also considers the ships of Japan and North Korea to be its own . And China also turns out to be not alone.......😂😂😂😂
@@user-mu6mq2kd1kbut look at the quality of China’s friends. They are a joke militarily. Russia would be an undeniable example, as we have seen. China knows this, and this is why they should not be underestimated.
Summer reading list, what are your favorite fiction books? BTW I like it when the good guys win.
Why can't this be a weekly show? 😬
Is that a pair of swords over Ferguson's bed? That's tickling the dragon's tail.
Great one again. Why not call on Bobby Shiller to find out what really is going on in Real Estate ? .
I like Niall
please add summer breeze to that list
Great show! Great summer music recommendations! Is Dr. Bill Whalen on summer holiday?
Inflation (headline inflation) peaked and declined thanks to a ~40% reduction in energy prices since the post-Ukraine invasion peak. The benefits of lower energy prices is coming to an end and wages are still growing at its highest rate for 40 years, property prices are starting to accelerate again, etc. Predicting a near term end to core inflation is optimistic, at best
More jobs, and higher pay, right now, sounds like the reason inflation isn't coming down, even with higher interest rates. In addition, home prices sored this past month, in many cities. How people are able to afford homes that have risen over 50% in many places over the past 5 years, is unprecedented! Utilities doubled in my state, last winter. Property taxes, of course, are now way up. With higher interest rates, a huge portion of the population can no longer afford to buy, and rent has gone up, too. The stock market continues it's rise. Gas prices are up, for the summer. Food goes up with gas prices. But, inflation is down? Something is very amiss.
I think that recession disappeared the moment when the definition of recession changed.
Beach Boys! Yes, Summertime!
Please produce a “Back to School” show for August.
Directed towards public school teachers of History (World and U. S.), Geography, Economics, and Political Science.
With concrete historical comparisons and “what if’s” and counterfactuals.
Also, suggestions for relevant primary sources and contemporary articles- accessible to the average high school reader.
Finally, consider producing and episode with a live public high school audience and open it up to a Q & A (my high school class at the top of the list of course) .
Realize that producing an episode for the AP Government class at a top level Palo Alto high school would not be representative of the average high school class.
I will check the comments in the coming days for your feedback.
I would love to hear the shows opinions on the BRICS gold backed currency that keeps coming up in other discussions..
HR is diametrically opposite on the Ukraine war to other military guys like Scott Ritter and Douglas Macgregor. I would like to see them debate the status.
Come on. The criminal Scott Ritter does not possess the credentials to face HR. Maybe others do, but not that prize idiot.
Fed using employee (super-lagging indicator) to drive monetary policy that slows the supply response to a fiscally-caused problem. What could go wrong?
Fed using employee (super-lagging indicator) to drive monetary policy. What could go wrong?
At 6:00 I think I realised why FED is raising rates that will not affect inflation in any way but will tank the stock market. Fed is raising rates to make all the BOND holders whole. And that is the way for FED to fortify the banks that hold the bonds to avoid collapses like Silicone Bank. So FED is willing to sacrifice the broader market and get us into recession to avoid further banking trouble. Nothing has been systemically resolved since 2008 collapse. With commercial RE on the precipice of a disaster FED is hedging.
I’d like to offer Mr. Ferguson something for his repertoire of options of how the war may end.
The Russian army will do what the German army did in the fall of 1918. The German army did the math (how many Americans were arriving each month), and decided there was no way to win. As Mr. Ferguson notes in “The Pity of War”, the German army still inflicted more casualties than they received. The difference was, more were surrendering. I doubt Russian soldiers would surrender en masse, with home so close. When Russian soldiers do the math, (endless, high-tech western aid vs paltry Russian replenishment, and little rationale for the war), they may well drift back to mother Russia. In fits and starts and splotches.
not to quibble but the number of hulls of PLA is unlikely to be comparable to USN.
Inflation has gone no where except up. The fact that the trajectory is slowing in increase is not the same as no inflation. Inflation can't be fixed as long as Congress is set to spend the absurd amounts of money they are planning to spend.
John, help me with this question on inflation. We keep talking about the latest number and celebrating the fact it's dropping, it's a 12 month year on year number, but we never mention the total inflation number over the years which is most important. What is the total inflation number since 2020 because that number is the one that really erodes wages and spending power. If inflation was 6% at the end of 2021 say, and was 6%, again, at the end of 2022 then the total inflation, over that time, is much greater than the inflation numbers we celebrate. I suspect for you three guys, as for me, that our net worth is such that the inflation number does not really effect us but I do worry that it does effect the poor. Does 2.9% inflation rate for last month really mean anything for basic wage families over the last two years? I suspect not. Why don't we talk about a two or three year inflation number and the associated wage changes during the same time? I never see it published. I realize rate of change is important but it's not the whole story.
The Chinese navy counts coastal patrol boats.
If you count the US coast guard and the blue water navy - then your figures would change.
Inflation is an event, and has a cumulative effect. Inflation accelerated prices almost 18%, where it stays today.
I feel better about the other two guy's impression of the economy over the economist.
These free traders first outsourced all industry to China, including shipbuilding, and now they worry that China is outpacing US in shipbuilding. But aren't Chinese, Japanese or South Korean ships "cheap"? Guess what, all three subsidize their shipbuilding industries while in US these "free" traders despise nothing more in the world than subsidies, because subsidies make things "inefficient". That's the cost of cheap goods from China that now US will pay forever. But but free market, free trade, free market, free trade!!!!
I told you so that a recession would happen because of overproduction and inflation. Why doesn't Hoover have Michael C Hudson, economics?
Neil why your bookshelf so empty?
Because no one writes good books anymore! 😂
Rented cabin in the mountains. Very nice too, bet that was not cheap but worth every dollar.
Even the high net worth and ultra high net worth people worry about money, just in different ways. There's no way around inflation. There's no way around recessions. Stop looking for a solution that doesn't exist and invest more money. Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?
The conclusion of this conversation seemed a bit tasteless after speaking about such grave matters.
Thanks Goodfellas. I’m a regular listener and appreciate your expert and varied viewpoints. Speaking of kids, I’m struggling with how to encourage our children to appreciate and pursue political science, history, and economics? Struggling to get my teens to develop a passion. Maybe you know of some books that aren’t as dry as most texts/essays etc? Thanks in advance.
Im in over 50 minutes did I miss discussion about GDP ? How is it possible to talk about a Recission or the lack of one without a GDP discussion.
I thought this was with Warren Buffett and then it's just with you talking.
I happily folow your podcast
Seeking the rare and rarer conservative
i.e. Team Normal Republicans
AKA RINOs
That will not waste too much time on cultural wars
And keep an eye out for the future of the ship and shape of State
Now
I understand that the military guy wants more weapons
And that fills an important role in society
But he does represent a specialised fringed interest
Like an environmental party or a more socialist one
Fringes, like on a rug serves an essential role
But taking control of government
Is just making a big hole in your carpet
And this goverment loses it's purpose
(Like not even bothering having an electoral platform)
The sugestion that America needs more ships
Because China is incrasing their fleet
Reflects just a very bad case of inflatable neighbor
America has a military budget that encompasses the budget of all 8 other major military
When America is a nuclear power
Which means as we found out recently with the Ukraine conflict
NOBODY is going to invade/attack a nuclear country
Actually, to please the rabid 2nd amendment proponent
The only weapon, ever that actually saved and is saving lives
Is the nuclear bomb
All others have a direct correlation between quantity and death
The 78 years of grossly inflated US military budget
Could and should have been used to improve American society
And international development
That would have improved life in quantity and quality
In the sense that less people would have been killed or left to die
And that actual development does, in time, decreases overpopulation
And tell the General
That all is new boats
Are going to be so easily sunk
By submersible suicide drones
It's the doughnut syndrome all over again
The future of "self defense" is going to be drones
More ships is not the answer
ruclips.net/video/nKBl5SNgqjs/видео.html
The recession is like a phantom traffic jam.
16:57 well, people have multiple (low paying) jobs to cover their expenses, I don't know what the data tells you about that compared to the actual number of unemployed and homless people. The fed just covers up the irrational political spending on unreasonable causes. It's simple drastically more money (supply, debt) the less value it has. But the economy is excellent, we just need to create more money to stimulate it 🤷🤦
Why are Ukrainian losses never mentioned?
Ukraine is in an existential battle. They will take losses because the alternative is Putin as their leader. This is entirely a war of choice for Russia and if the losses are high enough they will leave. And even if they don't leave, they will reconsider other misadventures along there current borders.
Surely it's just from moving manufacturing from China back to USMCA?
i've turned the sound off because I'm not into economics that much. Did any of you see the FOX News segment today, on how the price of gas has figured into the recent history of election outcomes? It jibes with the propadeutics of Reagan's epoch-making question in that famous debate, "Are you better off now, than you were four years ago?" That is the only kind of economics I can understand.
That said, if this Independent had to predict a winner, he'd say Biden. It is only a gut feeling at this point. But Biden & Company (some brilliant people) seem to be doing some things right. The IRA has turned out to be just that, "inflation reducing." People are going to be feeling everything and noticing everything and voting on the basis of whether basically the country is going in the right direction.