Known Unknowns, the Rolling Stones, and Karl Rove | GoodFellows
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- Опубликовано: 27 ноя 2023
- As the US prepares for a presidential vote (Iowans caucusing in fewer than 50 days) and a temporary truce halts the Israel-Hamas conflict, long-term uncertainty seems the order of the day. Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal political columnist and the “architect” behind George W. Bush’s presidential runs, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson. H.R. McMaster, and John Cochrane to discuss the odds of a Biden-Trump rematch. Next the three fellows analyze the latest in the Middle East, including the peril of a broader regional conflict and the potential for eradicating Hamas. Finally, a “lightning round“ explores Vladimir Putin’s peace overtures, Sam Altman’s return to OpenAI, an ascendant Right on two continents, plus the legacy of the soon-to-be-touring Rolling Stones (Niall having no sympathy for any devil who doesn’t recognize the Stones as the greatest rock band).
ABOUT THE SERIES
GoodFellows, a weekly Hoover Institution broadcast, features senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H.R. McMaster discussing the social, economic, and geostrategic ramifications of this changed world. They can’t banter over lunch these days, but they continue their spirited conversation online about what comes next, as we look forward to an end to the crisis.
For more on this series visit, www.hoover.org/goodfellows.
the art of conversation, debate without polemic - the best entertainment and news, on and off the net. thank you good fellows, and bill for an under stated light touch
Consistently the best and most thoughtful commentary on current events. Thank you.
The best political and current affairs program on the internet.
Only 22 comments? Is everyone out doing RL stuff or something? I watch these guys instead of the news now my trust in MSM has sunk as low as it has. Goodfellas are the best (serious) production on the internet. Well done chaps.
"My Hoover Institution speedo" with sound effect 🤣🤣🤣 HR is a national treasure !!
When Jagger was not even 40, they were making a comeback in 1981and people were concerned about his age!! I went to their concert at LA Coliseum.
Thanks always interesting to listen to you guys!
In my old age I've come to realize life is full of unknown unknowns.
This show is another fine example of the overall depth and brilliance shown by the Goodfellows. The many in depth points put forth on various subjects amaze me. The scripting, comments and choice of subjects always seems to resonate in a way that points to the future in a manner showing promise. Thanks to all of you.
It's always enjoyable to watch the good fellows ,learned a lot every time
Thankyou Gentlemen for you forensic analyisis. Regards from Newcasrle, AUS.
I can’t wait for new “GoodFellows” content. Interesting, topically relevant, and served with a side dish of good humor among the Fellows and their guests.
Always enjoy watching each episode. Keep up the good work gentlemen.
Thanks for a very informative group of conversations- STONES!
Yes, Stones.
Props to your video editor as well - the Lightning Round graphics/ sound, and the Psycho shower scene strings were a nice touch
Great episode. Clearly it is impossible to answer a question on unknown unknowns. You can answer a question on known unknowns.
Ooooh Karl Rove, let me not waste any time and skip this one.
Courageous of you, but then in your case total ignorance is probably bliss?
I'd like to see a program that really compares the Florida and California economy in detail
Sadden to hear of the loss of Dr. Kissinger, thankful for the work of Dr. Ferguson to preserve who and what Dr. Kissinger brought to the world.
Great episode as always.
Draft HR McMaster for prez in 2024!!!
Another great episode ! Love the split !! Looking forward to to the next one !!
Love this interview! Packed with so much information!
Always a treat
Thank you.
I miss the Santa hats on the GoodFellows in the title card. I think that was a great touch. Let's make that a holiday tradition!
Excellent show.
As always from across the pond thanks for another thought provoking episode.
Somebody needs to stand up on the debate stage and challenge Trump directly, to have a dialogue about what their "vision of the future " is. The American people deserve to hear it.
You've seen Trump's "vision of the future" in action. Decreased regulations and a robust economy.
He won’t subject himself to it. He doesn’t play a game that he doesn’t write the rules for.
@@MrJoel9679 he won't subject himself to a robust economy?
Great episode!
Niall Ferguson is right. The Rolling Stones are, objectively, the greatest rock & roll band, ever.
Right on HR!!!
Love you guys
Brilliant on all topics by all the Fellows, Karl Rove, and Bill Whalen, too. How about bringing Mr. Rove back in June/July before the Republican convention?
Good episode.
love this show
As always, an excellent insight into what the hell is going on in this crazy world. Kudos to the good fellows of Hoover to help their fellow citizens be a bit more informed!
HR you are correct!!
The editor had fun with this episode
Thanks for another informative and educational discussion. Always leaves me with plenty to think about. I'm no expert by any stretch, but I worry about where AI goes, too. What you are saying makes sense, but humanity better try to guide it regardless. It could get out of hand very easily.
On all these "far right" elections being won, agree it's important to listen to what people are saying. My sense is there's something missing somehow that needs to be addressed with these folks.
The Stones sponsored by AARP - Thought I'd heard it all, or most of it!
Thank you for sharing. I hope you all have a happy and healthy season.
You all 4 are great! I always get such great take aways. Would love to meet are 4 of you and have a conversation sometime....Thank you for such a great shows.
1:03:15 Same issues in Ireland. The problem there is that this concern doesn't really have a political outlet. The establishment doesn't want to know about it.
Incisive political insight AND great humor 😂!
My intuition is that the whole reason Rove came on was to pump up Haley. This show's view numbers don't really support that logic (sub #'s decent tho) but perhaps the value lies more in the "who" will view it? If Haley survives these initial stages it will be interesting to see if Rove is seen more often/widely talking about her. Great show!
Another country voted on one candidate's nice hair and it has proven to be disastrous for Canada.
Nice to see Theodore there, keeping a friendly if incredulous eye on the jibberjabber…
Bravo Karl Rove... I paraphrase... "If you have a complaint about the election... validate it before the election." The bedrock of the American system is trust in those who run the system and the legitimacy of the electoral vote. The reason we all have locks on our doors we know that there are those who would steal anything, anywhere and anytime! We need locks on our electoral process, a system that is transparent, trusted and not questioned. Another hats off to "GoodFellows"... 60 minutes of thought for the other 167 hours of our week to think about... Bravo!
Bravo Gentlemen! Thank You!
Yeccch.
I went to North Georgia College with Shawn Mullins, LTG McMaster! In fact, LTG (Retired) James Terry taught us both, when we were there.
Its good to know what the Neocons are thinking.
That's my exact reaction. They are hopelessly out of touch with the public.
It was unknown that it was known before it was known.
bingo
They surely could be more harsh on trump. They treat him like a normal guy with just a couple of indictement
Ms Haley did a great job while she was at UN. She expressed very important thoughts against the ambiguity of the UN and the double standards UN applies to some important topics. As foreigner person, I like her for this reason. Maybe it’s not enough.
I'm with Niall on the Rolling Stones. Greatest Rock 'n' Roll Band Ever. The Beatles were the greatest Pop band ever.
Rumsfeld as Descartes...
Rove’s pre-election year tour d’ horizon was fascinating.
Another great episode, and yes the Stones are the greatest Rock n Roll band….Zeppelin a close second
I LOVE General McMaster. Must have been difficult to sit in with some of the good fellas.
Karl was interesting. And the discussion on the Middle East was bracing.
Every time I hear the four of you talking about the economy, international issues, policy, etc I wonder just what would happen if the four of you were running the country? (You can decide who would be president. I know who I would choose) 😀
“At a minimum, Iraq should put an end to the notion of “nation-building,” especially “nation-building” on the cheap, and to the glib and heady talk of “national greatness” interventionists who were prepared to put other people’s lives on the line from the safety of their editorial offices”…Thomas Sowell
Great episode, and great to hear such thoughtful analyses of the Israel/Hamas/Gaza situation and possible solutions. I just heard the Lebanese P.M. on Times radio. What a contrast. What will we do to stop the Arab leaders being so afraid of the street?
Very interesting in the first segment on American politics. Trump is pillared as a villain, and in the second, on foreign policy, what he did is acknowledged as effective. Why not acknowledge the potential advantages of his return to power?
I always wish Rumsfeldt had completed the grid and went on philosophizing about the ”things we don’t know that we know”.
So cute how they try to make 2024 seem competitive 😂
Niall, one trip to the supermarket is all it takes to understand why people (the “little people” to quote Fiona) are down on the economy. Look at the lunacy of the Fed’s latest way of calculating “core” inflation (“supercore” inflation). Gee, Jerome, whodda thunk workers would demand big raises when a half decent steak is $14.99/lb and even chicken is up 40%?
Love the fellows, loose the t**d blossom guest. :-) D.A., J.D., NYC
Will they have a special on Henry Kissinger, seeing he has passed away, at 100. And how Ferguson is writing his biography.
Certainly a War Criminal of epic proportions.
Speaking of the Rolling Stones wouldn’t it have been better for all concerned if America had simply followed ‘Rolling Stones’ foreign policy for the last 50 years or so…that’s to say only invade foreign countries where the Stones have played ? So no Iraq, no Afghanistan, no Syria, no Viet Nam. It may sound simple but Mick Jagger is realist who understands the way the world works - which is way more than can be said for most US presidents lately 😂
Rove's superficial takes are probably interesting to someone.
Karl Rove is sharp, and he is funny. This is one intelligent man, well-versed in the history of American politics. My hat is off to him. Yes, it is true, the Rolling Stones really are as good as their as their press agent wants us to think they are...and by "Rolling Stones" one can only mean Keith Richards (first and foremost) and Mick Jagger (a distant second).
Most of what he droned on about was irrelevant. Electoral history is not correlated to today's outcomes, interesting anecdotes none the less. Rove certainly revealed himself when he announced that his stand up desk was bigger than Rumsfeld's... LOL
Agreed. Rove just had to dominate the conversation at all times. Sociopath. Seriously.
As a member of the “White House Iraq Group” he was tasked with the sale and marketing of the illegal invasion of Iraq.
This is a good programm. Haley & DeSantis? Perhaps some competence for a change...
karl rove selling his wishes as "analysis" is reached a level on the absurd scale that feeds into increaseed trump support. 9 out of 10 republican that listens to this man talk ends up closing the tab and doubling down on trump.
they should ask the economist about the trump economy and current inflation! i know cochrane will say its only due to covid spending, and ignore a decade of negative real interest rates and quantitative easing. although i guarantee he would have been on record during that time, as most economists were, questioning when the expected inflation is coming, only to forget about it now....
Karl is the perfect Trump Derangement Syndrome guest.
Remember
"Monkey Business"?⛵️
⭐
Hey Karl, why did you forget to mention Vivek. We can see you are on the Nicki train .
He hates Vivek as he's not only smarter than Rove but also has charisma. Rove like dumb charming candidates that he can manipulate from his BIG standing desk... Bush, Haley etc
Great show, but I think Rove needs to brush up on his 19th century presidential history.
Another good talk. Probably a good idea not to mix the General and VDH. Just saying…..
It’s really sad that none of these guys can openly confront that Trump is against them and the entire system. What a failure of moral and professional leadership.
Nikki Haley has had impressive debate performances for sure. She would pose a serious challenge to Biden for independent voters.
Karl Rove. Yikes. I guess Alexander Kerensky was unavailable?
Karl Rove would love any Republican other than Trump. Wimp
The American people want a two state solution more than any other foreign policy goal, and October 7th is exactly why. I still think a UN Security Council Resolution of Peace Keepers on a Humanitarian mission to protect Gazans from Hamas is the way to go.
The US has blocked over 53 UN resolutions condemning Israeli actions and behavior.
I use to know a dog named “Rover”.
Karl Rove and Barry Weiss. Ending the year weak.
Is Niall ok?
Good heavens, it's 'turd blossom'!
Funny how their egos are blind to who can best lead the country. Who do they support as president.
I can't take a stand. But... The Beatles was impressive while the Rolling Stones still are. The latest album is excellent. Maybe their best.
Mitch Daniels? Lol
Arizona’s Governor is not trust worthy.
Carl Rove?? You brought this guy on???
Rove is excellent at telling the Fox News people exactly what they want to hear. His analysis is terrible.
Meh, this is silly. I expect a plot twist here or there, but the overwhelming possibility is that Biden defeats Trump in the rematch.
The Beatles' musical cannon will be played, studied, and enjoyed around the word for many generations to come. When Mick dies, so will the Stones (I spent a day with Mick once; not that impressive).
Ridiculous Question, Israel won't touch Qatar. Those HAMAS officials can't hide forever.
Nikki Haley's embrace of the war in Ukraine has killed her nomination.
Bernie won Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada, but still lost the nomination.
Rumsfeld😮
you just dont know what you dont know!
Maybe Karl hasn't figured out yet, something about Europe. And I'm not referring to a post- 2008 time period. Or am I referring to a pre- or post- 2016 period either. Or indeed anythiing at all to do with Brexit. What I'm talking about is a period in recent history that happened in the early Bush '43 time frame. And looking today, nowadays at November and December of 2023, I'm reminded of that time. When something horrendous happened to the United States. And in response to that, and to my astonishment. I looked around me at the politics of the young people in western Europe. And immediately after that tragedy had happened in America. The young folks in Europe who were the most articulate, the most politically knowledgeable and often times the loudest or most forceful in their personalities. They suddenly became anti- American. I can't explain it. I couldn't then, and neither can I explain it now. It's always been one of those lingering questions about life, that I don't think I will ever answer. And I know that when Karl Rove was helping election campaigns and served in his capacity in the administrations of that time period. This was going on in Europe. And no one on the other side of the Atlantic ocean understands it (at that point in time, professor Ferguson was this busy, hard-working history and economics academic on the east coast). And professor Ferguson's focus in his academic career has been to try and retrieve much of the story and the history about the Cold Water. Leading up to the late eighties and early nineties. The time frame of Bush '41. Professor Ferguson had left Europe by the time of Bush '43, and it's always been a gap in professor Ferguson's understanding about western Europe. Ever since. He remembers the Britain of Margaret Thatcher. He was not in Britain in the one of the 'New Labour' movement of the late nineties. When the credit bubble, which Alan Greenspan explained was the release of un-planned labour resources in China, and the opportunities that it provided to the western world (that's a conversation that we are having still to this day, about how best to harness and benefit from the industrial resource capacity of mainland China). The first entree into the global economy of China, in the post- Clinton era. Was what led to improvements of life style in the west, a credit bubble, ultimately an economic catastrophe in western Europe. And the post- 2008 situation that western Europe is nowadays in.
Nowadays there is a younger generation around, it is twenty-five years later on. And you know what? The Middle Eastern situation, as it had done at the beginning of Bush '43's era has occupied the mental space of a younger generation. In some strange way that is hard to fathom. And what I'm reminded of is what happened in western Europe too, at the time of the Bush Presidency. I was amazed at the level of anti- American sentiment that had existed. As I said, I've never understood what that was all about. Or why it happened. And I don't think that Karl Rove and others understand it, or even know of it's existence. The only reason that I mention it. I had mentioned it in late 2020, which is three years ago now. I mentioned it then for a reason. There were essentially two sides to that polarizing debate which took place in European countries (and especially in the English speaking countries in Europe then). Amongst the younger people twenty-five years ago. Many of my friends became extremely polarized by it. And I remember finding myself 'isolated in the middle'. If you didn't shift your point of view, either dramatically to one side or the other. You found yourself like one of those unfortunates, who is the last person to be chosen by opposing teams. At basketball or baseball practice. You're the 'token' number fifteen man or woman, that is irrelevant as far as team selection goes. And most people who have been to school have been that guy at one stage or other. Depending on what sport it was. I think that's why younger people find it easier to become polarized in that way (I mean, because they're only recently removed from team and competitive field sports). And it seems more natural. As we grow older, many of us loose that instinct for competition. We begin to learn about cooperation and so on. And I think this is what we're seeing in the younger folks today. The same thing, rinse and repeat. The reason I mentioned this in late 2020. It was hard or impossible, if you moved in certain circles twenty plus years ago. To remain in the middle, as it often meant you remained isolated. Not a straightforward thing to do. Not an easy thing to do, if you're just a guuber starting out in your journey, and trying to figure it out. I remember I was one sad sap who did remain isolated then, and paid the price. I thought, well north America has this egalitarian idea or concept. I don't know about sharing it with the Middle East. However, I'm willing to tolerate General McMaster in his army tank vehicle. Doing what he does. I would give the Americans the benefit of the doubt at the very least. Which was the exact thing, which many of my peers at that time. Did not do.
And you fast forward to the present day. Countries in western Europe have enjoyed investment and corporate take over's of all sorts. From outside, and from America. Things have gotten good, and high-end careers, positions or jobs have been created. As a benefit to being in this relationship with north America. Anyone I know from that time period, who was once very critical of the United States, from a European perspective. Has done enormously well, by being in business with the United States. And furthermore, it appeared as though the alliances, bonds and relationships that came from being involved in anti- American movements or politics. Back in those days, Was of benefit to many I knew back then, who are virtually American corporate insiders nowadays. That's the part of it that I found odd too. And difficult to explain. Leading me to a realization, those very loud and forceful personalities that I used to know when they were young. They were anti- a lot of thiings, which Karl Rove and his colleagues might have been for. And yet, those protest voices from all those years ago, they understood better than I had done. Which side their bread was buttered on. And how to really cosy up to 'the yanks'. That's the astonishing thing. Even now, being somewhat 'isolated in the middle' all of the time. I still give the Americans the benefit of the doubt. However, I can only conclude that what I witnessed happened in 2020. And I agree, it happened you could say on both sides of the political aisle there. What happened in late 2020 and early 2021 had me quite sickened. The only thing which kept me 'isolated in the middle', instead of screaming my lungs out in protest against Bush '43 back then. Like my buddies were doing. Was the idea or understand that I had. That at least, at the very end of the day. The Americans knew how to hold something as fundamental and basic. As an election. I don't know if that is the case any longer. And that's what has me concerned at least. Looking at it from the European point of view. I said this to someone from the State of Arizona not that long ago. And he couldn't tell me anything that could help me out either (he'd grown up in South Carolina, so he understood southern and south-western politics well). All he could offer to me was, well you can't accuse us (the Americans), of being boring.
The only that perhaps Rumsfeld, Rove, Bush or Rice had never figured out. Was that all factions and side of domestic north American politics. Have since the end of the Second World War fell over one another. And competed with one another in order to provide and deliver what each side felt (both on the conservative side and progressive), was the best foreign policy solutions or remedies. And then try to establish enough of a power base at Washington DC, in order to be able to summon the resources of the United States. In order to be able to impose, or try to impose their best idea of a solution. On some other part of the globe. My only guess, is that this is how Americans were trained to think and process things, when they were at universities. And ever since the Second World War, generation after generation of American have been trained to think in this way. Which has led us to where we are today. Yet, the one thing that never got trained to folks in north America. When they were at their campuses. Was the most obvious thing of all. That by being able to hold elections and facilitate an orderly transfer of power each four years. That it provided some support to the guy in western Europe. As I had been twenty plus years ago. Feeling like they were standing alone 'and in the middle'. To remain standing alone and in the middle. Even if it was far more profitable, not to do so. And by having that capability to facilitate the orderly transfer of power, each four years. What it did was it served as something to quieten the folks, who refused to stand in the middle. In other parts of the world. General McMaster and just about every foreign policy expert or key thinker since the end of the Second World War. From the United States has spoken about solutions to be applied to elsewhere around the world. And what it's led to over all of those decades, of three-quarters of a century. Is neglect to apply the solution that they ought to be have been applying to themselves. That's what's happened, and it has opened the door now. To all of the other things, which leads one to believe. In the need to respond by way of large military scale planning, resourcing and financing. In a cycle that seems to grow and become more urgent. Every twenty plus years or a quarter of a century. That passes us by. In our recent collective experience.
If Dems picks someone els than Buden they will WIN..
If Reps picks someone els than Trump they WIN...Biden vs Trump is a gamble for both..50/50..imo
You are correct.
And if bith pick someone else its a gamble 50/50 so whats the dif. Better one you know.
Unfortunately it's going to be Michelle Obama and it won't matter who runs on the republican side she/him will win and as usual it will be liberal white suburban women that will put her in. You're looking at the fall of the country
Ignore Roves's gaslighting -- the GOP has no choice unless Trump keels over. If thge GOP picks anyone other than the clear choice of its voters, which is Trump, it will be crushed.
Perhaps I'm not far enough to the right, but I don't find Karl Rove to be a very insightful character.
Karl Rove is not a policy guy but a political scientist, and a damn good one at that. Take his policy comments with a big grain of salt. His comments regarding winning elections should be taken very seriously.