From the comments I don’t think many realise how powerful this video is. I’ve made thousands and thousands doing this in a short space of time. If enough want full examples/run-through then I’ll look at adding them. If I had done that straight away then no doubt many would be commenting that they don’t understand!
I was stunned to find the cricket "coin toss" market available to bet on, and odds of 1.83 for either outcome 😂! But it highlights your point about how the bookies work. You're talking about finding those markets where they've unwittingly done the equivalent of pricing up a coin toss at over 2.0. I think this is a great video, for many reasons, thank you. Very clear in my opinion.
@@MrKarlpotter This is exactly what they do. Good stuff, thanks for the feedback! I'm guessing the bookies accounts didn't like the vid from the dislikes button!
@@bixou22002 Sure can do, it's really not hard. Will have to see if I have any old recordings, or potentially just make some new ones although I have little to no accounts left now!
I know you have touched on it in this video but it would be good to do an attachment video on the back of this on how to deal with losses. Loss aversion is probably the hardest thing to deal with when handling losses even when you have a winning edge. Its taken me years to understand it and overcome it. I once had 17 losses in a row and my confidence was through the floor but when I checked my spreadsheet I was still in a healthly profit. I could of easily lost my shit chased and chased until losing my bankroll. Discipline is an easy word to say but a lot harder to have in reality when the losses to start rolling in. I know you understand it Caan but so many gamblers don't have a prayer without serious help and advice on how to deal with this.
If you're taking +EV positions, then there is no reason to worry. There simply isn't....if you're getting ''more'' losses than expected, you're just on the bad end of variance, but by your comment alone, it sounds like you're using money you can't afford to lose. EV is EV, in the long run, it'll balance out, so if you're supposed to lose 40% of the time, but over 20 spots you've lost every one, that's just variance, it will even back out (i.e you're due a huge spike in profit, cos again, variance.) If you don't understand variance, or EV, i'd stick to your day job my friend.
" it will even back out" ???😅😅😅 Must be Reason why so many old folks spend their entire day in the bookies.... they waiting for that " even out" payment, issued by their second home (the bookies) 😅😅
One way to be assured of a win ( providing you’ve membership of a few online bookies, you’ve a few quid to spare and you’re quick off the mark ) is to get on a price comparison site and do in-running bets on contests that can’t finish in a draw ( tennis/darts). A match at the darts last week between 2 unknowns had, at one stage, player A @ 11/10 and player B @ 4/1. Bets of £1000 and £250 respectively would do the trick.
I appreciate the effort going into these vids, and understand that you don’t even need to give away these systems, but I have to say, I find them SO hard to follow. The vids go at a very fast pace, it’s so hard to follow along. Anyway, again, thanks for the effort, it’s just not for newbies I reckon. All the best.
Cheers for the feedback, Brian. Only trouble is if I slow them down people don't watch and say it's boring or something. How would you suggest I strike the balance.
Yep, shows you are doing the right thing though. If you aren't getting limited you're wasting your time. People are mad to think that bookies are going to let you sign up and take money off them lol.
Hello mate, just wanted to say thanks for all of your videos. They have helped me consider the way I do things and how a lack of discipline has always been my achilles heel, always. You should do so more motivational stuff.
@@CaanBerryProTrader I did my first change of tactics last night and moved away from punting for first time. Bought Northampton (Rugby) at 1.88 and waited for the money to come on for it as there was a game just finishing beforehand and I just knew your average rugby punter would fancy that price on an English premier team V a Welsh Pro 14 team (a bad one at that) and sure enough I traded Northampton @ 1.69 10 minutes before kick off.
Hi Caan Ive been betting for over 10years and Im lucky that Im well and truly in Profit, I keep Spreadsheets. I definately like the ideas of examples tho as this has me totally confused. Am I comparing multiply sites and exchanges? Do I need to use 2 different sites like match betting? I understand the concept its just the execution im having issues understanding, Im always in favour of bashing the bookies. Oh and Ive subscribed to in anticipation of your next video
If I fancy a football team I bet them in the 2nd half only hoping halftime is a draw or better still they are losing by a goal. The odds are far greater and the result I want is still the same as if I had backed them before kick-off. Takes discipline but will give you a better return. I'd also say for those who do accumulators and like a cash out. You have to stagger the kick-off times. Having your bets all playing at the same time has too many variables. You will get a far better offer if say 2 teams have already won in a treble opposed to if all 3 are playing at the same time and 2 matches are close.
Hey man really love the work you are doing here. Just a suggestion, could you do a video on the different bet types like system, accumulator, chain etc...? Personally i think it would be a good topic to address.
Thanks Caan, I find all this maths strategy fascinating. In terms of "the wisdom of the crowd", in betting terms do we find more wisdom in exchange betting markets or in Tote/pari-mutuel pools? I'm an amateur but would have thought the latter since more bets appear to be staked on the Tote than the paltry sums one sees bet on exchanges in most races. So, what do you think is a better barometer of the wisdom of the crowd: exchanges or the Tote? If it is exchanges, which one(s) do you use? Grateful for your (and others') thoughts.
Clever chap that Caan Berry, the value will eventually kick in, just need a big enough bank roll and the ability to view mutiple bookmaker prices , food for thought and very good of you to share.
@@johnheathergeorge yes if like on the video you back a greyhound or horse at 7/1 and its starting price on the echange you have 4/1 for a 10 pound bet youd have 30 pounds more profit ( lets not go into digital odds now ) the exchange odds have been proven to be the exact odds of the chances of that horse or greyhound winning. Over 4 bets instead of breaking even because you would have 3 losing bets and one winning over a period of time at 4/1 you would be 30 pounds up, as Caan says though you may well have ten losing bets in a row so you need a big enough bank and staking plan to cope with that, its a big edge like for instance picking out horses that run at the back and have a low speed rating and betting them to lose, in the long run youre going to get more right than wrong.
@@markjackson8261 the exchange odds have been proven to be the exact odds of the chances of that horse of winning. I don't understand this concept, could you please elaborate. Us racing for example will have at times vastly different odds in the US and UK betting markets, part of this will be from how their respective exchanges see the market. So aren't the exchanges still essentially the price given, based of the opinion of many different betters. So I see it as no exchange can be proof of the actual chances of a particular horse winning as this can still vary.
No you haven’t. Because they are being their true value. So if the true value is a 50-50 chance, then 1 out of 2 will win in the long run, so by getting more than 50% payout, you would always win.
I've recently subscribed to this channel and always thoroughly enjoy the videos. Excellent content delivered at a great tempo from a very informative pro. I'm currently looking at the website and will undoubtedly sign up to the modules on there to further my knowledge. Great stuff 👍
Greyhounds are definitely the best market for this kind of strategy, a lot of them only offer SP until 5 minutes before the off then afterwards offer horrendous odds. Sky bet is definitely the best bookie, also Grosvenor and 888 for greyhound racing tv meets, keep the stakes to £50 max, learn to deal with the variance and you'll get a good £2k out of Sky
Cheers for the information Caan, do you have any sort of advice about the size of bankroll you may need in order to really take advantage of it? Thanks in advance
that's a good question, the variance in the strategies surprisingly low anyway however when you consider most of the odds are 5 to 1 or under you should have enough bankroll and steak sizing to absorb at least 10 or so losses. however myself I don't ever recall having more than 4-5 in a row.
I believe bookmakers have caught up but I found American horse racing ( Will rodgers downs especially ) a great place to find discrepancies as bookies are slow to react to exchange price changes in these races . Especially when they offer a insurance bet market as they seem to react even slower . Some bookies have since removed these markets but may be something to monitor
Very interesting video which opens up a lot of possibilities. I'm going to do a trial of this exact method over a few hundred bets and want to track results. How would you calculate your EV for each bet? Would it be: a) The equivilent matched betting profit/loss using a matched betting calculator formula using the taken sportsbook price against the Betfair starting price? i.e. (sportsbook odds/Betfair SP * stake) - stake b) The value of the percentage odds difference between the sportsbook price and the Betfair starting price after converting decimal/fractional odds to percentage odds? i.e 100/Betfair SP - 100/Sportsbook price * stake c) Or something else?
How to win quit while your ahead, casual bet $10 or $20 here and there. 3. Make sure your single quickest this is the quickest way to get a divorce amongst 30 thousand other things!
It varies. Maybe I'll do a follow up about how they pick up your activity but I've had accounts that have lasted an afternoon and I've had them that have lasted weeks. The ones where it only last a day is usually because a grand or more has been made on that day.
@@CaanBerryProTrader how do you manage to still carry on once you loose accounts, I do abit of trading with matched betting, but find it difficult to replace bookies once the account becomes virtually useless...
Why am I struggling to understand this? haha. How do you decide what is/isn't good value? I thought I was quite switched on. It could be that I usually just dabble in a punt here and there. But I am struggling to grasp the concept of "winning on sports betting is not about picking the winner, its about getting the right price and then letting variance do the hard work for you".
Can explain it very simply. Look at 2:58 in the video, the top odds are the 'true odds' the chance of it happening, at 50%. The bottom set of odds are if you got value odds (bigger) and the box at the bottom is the difference between the two. In this case, at 2.58 it's £500. This is the value you are getting in comparison. Play the vid through a bit and you see the odds are changed in the second section showing the difference in value in the bottom box. Make sense?
Cool video, but do you have any videos that have tips on American Sportsbook betting (NBA, NFL, NHL, Draftkings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanduel)? I'm half way through this video and thus far nothing pertains to American Sportsbook betting.
Yes! This will help you - ruclips.net/video/CU1t4PIP7xc/видео.html Also there's a US playlist we have started with more being added, check it out on the channel page.
You dont need to compete against them, just grab your own bit of value! Can make a lot of money with this when you are strict with the value you take and get some decent stakes on. Have tobe fast though as you say.
This is fucking true I bet on New Zealand basketball last night after losing like 3-4 parlays on nba playoffs. I bet on average of $25 dollars 5 different times sometimes a little more sometimes a little less and won’t $80-$100 each time. I was so shocked lol. Make sense now after watching this video!
It's a terrible situation. Essentially they drag you in with offers. You open an account and lose, they allow you to continue. You win consistently and they stake limit you to pennies a bet. Even though they offer the price...i.e. they make the book. You don't ask them to price the way they do, they should take some responsibility. Most people don't realise they do this because it doesn't affect them, as they don't consistently win. If you told those people they wouldn't believe you. I worked as a Boardman in a shop, and one guy consistently won exclusively using the "union jack" bet. The shop manager banned him from the shop , a real eye opener for me.
@@AB-dx1co Exactly. I make my living betting on Greyhounds and Tennis. I'm not gonna put it out there. Most people couldn't follow it anyway. They lack the most important thing required to be a consistent winner. PATIENCE!
The numbers are the exchange trading numbers via a software called geeks toy. Its like seeing the purchase of stocks but on the sports exchange live (supply and demand).
Nice one Caan but am I right Betfair exchange don't restrict winners it's losers you mean basic accounts and those dreadfull bookies .Name a few that restricted me Paddy power I won £300 opened new account again had break but about £300 they restricted me to £14 bets now which Ime baffled.also now sky bet saying I wasnow 100 down again starting with them again yet now a £100 bet they restricted to £74 which I can't understand . These are main two with me .Keep up good work and videos but like you said that video is everything in one maybe all i need really off you..Thanks mate👍
I like the content you give your videos but I would work on the delivery, or at least being clear with who you want your audience to be because as a beginner, this is wayyyyyyy too fast and complicated to process. If the video is meant for intermediate betters I think it's really good but definitely not for beginners.
I’ve watched this a couple of times so let me get this straight. We find a dog, for example, with higher odds at a bookie than the exchange and back it, with the probability that over time it’ll be profitable? Simple as that?
Happy I read the comments and watched again because first time I didn't see how important the 3 check boxes are as you put it. Was looking at the prices on Sunday and see two races in a row when it happened, thank you for sharing this is one I will come back and see again I am sure.
I really appreciate your videos but without seeing examples from start to finish (step by step) it’s hard to follow you. I’ve made about 3k over the past 3 months on match betting. This is a bit harder to follow but maybe I need to watch a beginner video
Ahhhhh right! Now, I’m 100 percent with you It just clicked! I think your videos are great 💕 I think a run through your process (once) would be a nice summary to your videos. I think people (including myself) feel nervous about misunderstanding and getting it wrong is all x
It's a good strategy, have used it myself. People should just be aware that this will get your accounts banned extremely quickly. Betting on donkeys round Dundalk midweek will do that. Probably best building up a sizeable bankroll first so you can really take the value rather than betting a fiver.
interesting video but some remarks, general wisdom of the crowd suffers from favorite longshot bias. Also the best of it is in the bookmaker odds. The bookies monitor the best players and move the line according to their picks. Usually the bet exchange follows the bookmaker line, as many use it to hedge their bets, so every disparity is covered immediately.
Makes sooooo much fucking sense, simple but not initially obvious, thanks Caan, you’re the man, I’ve read your pre race guide and watched your vid pack over and over, I’m consistent now, not massively profitable but consistent, that was my goal, thanks for everything dude, hope you start the workshop up again soon, wanted to do your course for ages, did Peter Webb’s one a few years back, but I relate to your methods more !!
my tip for betting on tomorrow’s (sat 3pm) football is to wait until 2.40pm pending extra postponed matches. We know how the bookmakers scam ppl out of any value if there’s PP games or NR if u have lucky 15s or lucky15 each way. So nothing shorter than 2/1 odds incase u get 3 out 4 for a refund? Betting logic….but massive overdogs and slim odds, do they get paid to keep the score low yes. Do horses get armchair rides out of the places overfull of oats or running on empty. Yes. 2 out of 3 that set off even money or less. Gla
Hi Caan, thanks for this video. although I’m not going to use this strategy entirely it has brought the attention to me of the efficieny of the exchange odds.
Doing match betting I noticed that myself but never had hurts to Place bets . I had quite a few long odds winning on horses 😡 I should be thousands of pounds in profit
Wah gwaan i know u said u should only bet on odds like 2.5 up bigger odds than offered .but question for instance the first half goal is 90 % and u get it at odds 1.30 isn't that value cause being that it should be 1.10 since its 90 % probability
Then I was so excited to watch this video! I couldn't understand the word that you said something about horse racing. Who the hell wants to bet on horses!? NFL NBA MLB maybe NHL
Hey Caan - thanks for the video. I've looked through the comments and haven't seen this specifically asked so apologies if so. You say this isn't arbing - and OK you're not laying - but the bookies don't know whether or not you're laying the bet, so if the exchange odds are lower than theirs when you place the bet then in their eyes they will treat this as if you're an arber, right?
do you think the bookies treat arbers and people that take value different? they ban anyone who takes money off of them mate, it's not an ethical thing where they care about what you doing.
@@CaanBerryProTrader No, completely agree. It may or may not be arbing *as well* depending on whether the exchanges are reflecting value - but if it's value you'll win out over time and they'll treat you like an arber in any case (i.e. ban you!) It's just a bit more obvious if it's an arb.
Its not any more or less obvious for them. The question is; did the bet beat the SP? Yes = ban. If it was an open arb they couldnt give two hoots, its a computer algorythim that picks them up. Simple it question - was it a value bet? Account history - only placing value bets in line with SP? Yes = ban. They don't care either way, don't get yourself caught up on it mate.
Surely betting on the SB when the EX has lower odds is the same thing as arbing from the SB's perspective? In other words, the fast route to account limitation, not something that can exploited until the variance evens out?
Nice one Caan, that was extremely well versed making it easier to understand as it is certainly not that straightforward ( well for me anyway). It will that a little time for me to get the hang of but sounds the dogs. Thanks mate for your efforts to help us all beat those evil money grabbing bookies. Much appreciated . I must say I would like to see the master at work as I reckon I going to struggle. All the best and thanks again Stay safe, keep healthy and most importantly become filthy rich !! 👍👍💷💷🍺🍺 Paul
Bookmakers spot your behaviour and close or limit you VERY quickly these days. I was limited to max bet 75 PENCE !!!!!!! on racing after five bets at one of the tiddlers and limited at a high street name after ONE bet that turned into a steamer. I've run out of bookmakers. Exchange trading is the only sensible place.
Awesome Caan. Thanks for sharing this. I can't understand why bookies don't have some algorithm that just aligns the price with betfair though to update any errors quickly?
i dont understand why do you let it run? if its 7 on the bookie but at odds of 5.1 you could lay £13.73 liability will be £56.29 overall profit will be £3.71 locked in no need to let it play out, sure this is classic arbing and matched betting im just lost as to why you would ever let it play out
Hey Cann from where should I start learning as you got more videos ? I want to know what software you use and if you keep winning they will ban you but can't you open another account??
How have you still got a 365 account I'm just a recreational better and also a compulsive gambler/chaser on occasions but have been closes at 365. Also closed/gubbed or limited at 888 /Bet Victor / Coral / Betway and Sky Bet just to name a few. Matchbook have recently also said I don't pass there checks for know their customer or whatever it is where they demand such private info I can't be arsed to supply my financial history and proof of income. Its intrusive so they can do one.
I havent got one haha, see the other vids on the channel if you want to see what they do to me! Double quick time. There's a blog here about them banning me after 6.6k profit caanberry.com/bet365-account-limited/
This has been my betting mantra in a near 50 year punting career ........the only difference for me now is that often Betfair does the form "study" for me ...which is handy ....though of course knowing the form book backwards still gives you the "edge" to stand out from the crowd ....( the crowd WILL always lose ......in the long run ).......didn"t know some bookies priced up greyhound races early .... sounds interesting ............
Can I clarify? Are you laying the bet off on the exchange? Or just backing the runner that is overs, according to the market, on the Sportsbook and using the laws of probability for long-term profit? BTW, thanks Caan for showing different angles to betting. I was just an on-the-nose punter before.
Not laying off, and its about 3 things the price, the volumes coming late and the time. From the comments its seems a few are not bearing in mind all 3 enough althoug they are mentioned. This is really powerful, if the 3 dont match don't do it.
Nice video👍... very engaging from beginning to the end. In 2 to 3 years time people will be kicking themselves in regrets for missing the opportunity not buying and investing in crypto.
Is this the secret you said you would reveal if you get 100k subscriptions? Anyways, good stuff, can't believe I did not think of greyhounds. Top man you are Caan, cheers
Fair play for making money out of betting and you obviously know what your doing. but how am I meant to know what is good odds on an American greyhound?
Thanks Caan, another great video. I use the last minute volume which shows on the geeks toy ladder against a rating to show a value price for picking winners, l concentrate on handicaps and the Irish races are usually good. The one thing l tend to ignore is pundits going on from the start of a program about a gamble, they do win sometimes as well. You are right Caan form is not the biggest factor money is.
Struggling to understand how I defined value from pricing and probability? See this simple explainer: ruclips.net/video/iL4rmbwFwEY/видео.html
Please brother give me you are phone number by WhatsApp
good
Misleading
Good
"Getting the Right Price and letting variance do the work for you". I like how you phrase this. Very clear. Thanks.
Its how it works! Check out the recent upload there's another strategy just like this.
From the comments I don’t think many realise how powerful this video is. I’ve made thousands and thousands doing this in a short space of time. If enough want full examples/run-through then I’ll look at adding them. If I had done that straight away then no doubt many would be commenting that they don’t understand!
I was stunned to find the cricket "coin toss" market available to bet on, and odds of 1.83 for either outcome 😂! But it highlights your point about how the bookies work. You're talking about finding those markets where they've unwittingly done the equivalent of pricing up a coin toss at over 2.0. I think this is a great video, for many reasons, thank you. Very clear in my opinion.
Hi Caan, please add detailed examples in one of your next videos. It would be great from you ;-) Best regards from Belgium
@@MrKarlpotter This is exactly what they do. Good stuff, thanks for the feedback! I'm guessing the bookies accounts didn't like the vid from the dislikes button!
@@bixou22002 Sure can do, it's really not hard. Will have to see if I have any old recordings, or potentially just make some new ones although I have little to no accounts left now!
@@CaanBerryProTrader so this method is basically finding quick arbitrage opportunities but not laying?
I know you have touched on it in this video but it would be good to do an attachment video on the back of this on how to deal with losses. Loss aversion is probably the hardest thing to deal with when handling losses even when you have a winning edge. Its taken me years to understand it and overcome it. I once had 17 losses in a row and my confidence was through the floor but when I checked my spreadsheet I was still in a healthly profit. I could of easily lost my shit chased and chased until losing my bankroll. Discipline is an easy word to say but a lot harder to have in reality when the losses to start rolling in. I know you understand it Caan but so many gamblers don't have a prayer without serious help and advice on how to deal with this.
Well said
If you're taking +EV positions, then there is no reason to worry. There simply isn't....if you're getting ''more'' losses than expected, you're just on the bad end of variance, but by your comment alone, it sounds like you're using money you can't afford to lose.
EV is EV, in the long run, it'll balance out, so if you're supposed to lose 40% of the time, but over 20 spots you've lost every one, that's just variance, it will even back out (i.e you're due a huge spike in profit, cos again, variance.)
If you don't understand variance, or EV, i'd stick to your day job my friend.
@@danielseaburg9763 😭😭
" it will even back out" ???😅😅😅
Must be Reason why so many old folks spend their entire day in the bookies.... they waiting for that " even out" payment, issued by their second home (the bookies) 😅😅
Mate you are the best in the business. Really love the way you explain everything. Thanks for this great info.😀
You're too kind thanks! More inbound.
@@CaanBerryProTrader hey caan, how can we get your betting tips
@@CaanBerryProTrader bro where i can find that excel app ?
One way to be assured of a win ( providing you’ve membership of a few online bookies, you’ve a few quid to spare and you’re quick off the mark ) is to get on a price comparison site and do in-running bets on contests that can’t finish in a draw ( tennis/darts). A match at the darts last week between 2 unknowns had, at one stage, player A @ 11/10 and player B @ 4/1. Bets of £1000 and £250 respectively would do the trick.
I appreciate the effort going into these vids, and understand that you don’t even need to give away these systems, but I have to say, I find them SO hard to follow. The vids go at a very fast pace, it’s so hard to follow along. Anyway, again, thanks for the effort, it’s just not for newbies I reckon. All the best.
Cheers for the feedback, Brian. Only trouble is if I slow them down people don't watch and say it's boring or something. How would you suggest I strike the balance.
I've caught from my experince that every sport has a bit of a loop that makes it worth the bet. It'll take a while to catch on but its brilliant.
This video is 100% accurate.
I did it and now all betting accounts have limited my account from 0.25 to £5 per bet.
Yep, shows you are doing the right thing though. If you aren't getting limited you're wasting your time. People are mad to think that bookies are going to let you sign up and take money off them lol.
Hi I need help to understand it
@@CaanBerryProTrader
Hello mate, just wanted to say thanks for all of your videos. They have helped me consider the way I do things and how a lack of discipline has always been my achilles heel, always. You should do so more motivational stuff.
Great to hear!
@@CaanBerryProTrader I did my first change of tactics last night and moved away from punting for first time. Bought Northampton (Rugby) at 1.88 and waited for the money to come on for it as there was a game just finishing beforehand and I just knew your average rugby punter would fancy that price on an English premier team V a Welsh Pro 14 team (a bad one at that) and sure enough I traded Northampton @ 1.69 10 minutes before kick off.
Highly appreciated , keep it up man and bash the bookies !
Always!
@@CaanBerryProTrader please can I get in touch with you so that I can get daily bookies from you please?
@@CaanBerryProTrader please I need fixed game
Hi Caan Ive been betting for over 10years and Im lucky that Im well and truly in Profit, I keep Spreadsheets. I definately like the ideas of examples tho as this has me totally confused. Am I comparing multiply sites and exchanges? Do I need to use 2 different sites like match betting? I understand the concept its just the execution im having issues understanding, Im always in favour of bashing the bookies. Oh and Ive subscribed to in anticipation of your next video
If I fancy a football team I bet them in the 2nd half only hoping halftime is a draw or better still they are losing by a goal. The odds are far greater and the result I want is still the same as if I had backed them before kick-off. Takes discipline but will give you a better return. I'd also say for those who do accumulators and like a cash out. You have to stagger the kick-off times. Having your bets all playing at the same time has too many variables. You will get a far better offer if say 2 teams have already won in a treble opposed to if all 3 are playing at the same time and 2 matches are close.
Hey man really love the work you are doing here. Just a suggestion, could you do a video on the different bet types like system, accumulator, chain etc...? Personally i think it would be a good topic to address.
yes I can do although the main problem is the the vast majority of them are useless. it could get a little repetitive
Can you please subtitle your videos please, for proper understanding especially we Africans. Thank you
Thanks Caan, I find all this maths strategy fascinating.
In terms of "the wisdom of the crowd", in betting terms do we find more wisdom in exchange betting markets or in Tote/pari-mutuel pools?
I'm an amateur but would have thought the latter since more bets appear to be staked on the Tote than the paltry sums one sees bet on exchanges in most races.
So, what do you think is a better barometer of the wisdom of the crowd: exchanges or the Tote?
If it is exchanges, which one(s) do you use?
Grateful for your (and others') thoughts.
Clever chap that Caan Berry, the value will eventually kick in, just need a big enough bank roll and the ability to view mutiple bookmaker prices , food for thought and very good of you to share.
Hi Mark, could you explain what you mean by, "the value will eventually kick in"? I've watched the video a few times but can't grasp how this works!
@@johnheathergeorge yes if like on the video you back a greyhound or horse at 7/1 and its starting price on the echange you have 4/1 for a 10 pound bet youd have 30 pounds more profit ( lets not go into digital odds now ) the exchange odds have been proven to be the exact odds of the chances of that horse or greyhound winning. Over 4 bets instead of breaking even because you would have 3 losing bets and one winning over a period of time at 4/1 you would be 30 pounds up, as Caan says though you may well have ten losing bets in a row so you need a big enough bank and staking plan to cope with that, its a big edge like for instance picking out horses that run at the back and have a low speed rating and betting them to lose, in the long run youre going to get more right than wrong.
@@markjackson8261 the exchange odds have been proven to be the exact odds of the chances of that horse of winning. I don't understand this concept, could you please elaborate.
Us racing for example will have at times vastly different odds in the US and UK betting markets, part of this will be from how their respective exchanges see the market. So aren't the exchanges still essentially the price given, based of the opinion of many different betters. So I see it as no exchange can be proof of the actual chances of a particular horse winning as this can still vary.
But you still gotta pick the winning dog/horse or whatever...right? Doesnt matter how much value the price has if it loses
No you haven’t. Because they are being their true value. So if the true value is a 50-50 chance, then 1 out of 2 will win in the long run, so by getting more than 50% payout, you would always win.
I've recently subscribed to this channel and always thoroughly enjoy the videos. Excellent content delivered at a great tempo from a very informative pro. I'm currently looking at the website and will undoubtedly sign up to the modules on there to further my knowledge. Great stuff 👍
thank you Dave what a sincere comment.
Hi
This would be better titled how to always get value sports betting but it is solid info. Cheers.
Greyhounds are definitely the best market for this kind of strategy, a lot of them only offer SP until 5 minutes before the off then afterwards offer horrendous odds. Sky bet is definitely the best bookie, also Grosvenor and 888 for greyhound racing tv meets, keep the stakes to £50 max, learn to deal with the variance and you'll get a good £2k out of Sky
NIce, didnt even consider grosvenor and 888....sky cut me off after 1k lol
Sky cut me off when over a year my account broke even!
Please could you do a ‘live’ example of this
Others have asked, will look at getting it fixed up when theres time.
Yeah he's right bro. Theory side is good but the best is the practical side of it.
Roulette seems to be the most profitable game to gamble on..i managed the win £22 from a £5 initial bet..always put something on green as insurance
Certainly not, wouldn't advise that game.
Cheers for the information Caan, do you have any sort of advice about the size of bankroll you may need in order to really take advantage of it? Thanks in advance
that's a good question, the variance in the strategies surprisingly low anyway however when you consider most of the odds are 5 to 1 or under you should have enough bankroll and steak sizing to absorb at least 10 or so losses. however myself I don't ever recall having more than 4-5 in a row.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thank you for the answer, that makes a lot of sense
@@CaanBerryProTrader also I love the horse trading video pack, can't wait to get started at some point soon
that's the best video i have ever watched . i started to win. The worry i only have now is my account will be gubbed any time soon.
Thanks, Nirmal. It probably will but make hay while the sun shines and all that :)
@@CaanBerryProTrader yes i will .Could you tell me the idea that i can save my account much longer. Thanks caan
I believe bookmakers have caught up but I found American horse racing ( Will rodgers downs especially ) a great place to find discrepancies as bookies are slow to react to exchange price changes in these races . Especially when they offer a insurance bet market as they seem to react even slower . Some bookies have since removed these markets but may be something to monitor
I've seen in bookies mate in America a horse 1-10 and over here it's evens lol
@@efrenbata1196 Haha can't be that much of a discrepancy, Hilarious if so getting Evens for a 1/10 chance 🤣🤣🤣
Very interesting video which opens up a lot of possibilities.
I'm going to do a trial of this exact method over a few hundred bets and want to track results. How would you calculate your EV for each bet? Would it be:
a) The equivilent matched betting profit/loss using a matched betting calculator formula using the taken sportsbook price against the Betfair starting price? i.e. (sportsbook odds/Betfair SP * stake) - stake
b) The value of the percentage odds difference between the sportsbook price and the Betfair starting price after converting decimal/fractional odds to percentage odds? i.e 100/Betfair SP - 100/Sportsbook price * stake
c) Or something else?
Great video. Do the odds move crazy fast with greyhounds as they do horses near the off. Dunno if I can cope with the stress lol
Not crazy fast, but they do change. You gotta be quick, it's not stressful, just boring, but hey it's winning!
Loving your videos. 😀
How to win quit while your ahead, casual bet $10 or $20 here and there. 3. Make sure your single quickest this is the quickest way to get a divorce amongst 30 thousand other things!
If only there was a way to automate this ;) great video!
There is.U need to take a closer look.Cheers
Finally I found someone that's knows what they are talking about it. Haven't fully got it yet, still a work in progress.
and how is it going?
I'm new to sports betting. Can you tell me what liquidity is. Or atleast explain the basics in a separate video. Sure we all would welcome it.
Liquidity is the money that flows into the market, getting matched. You can see it clearly on an exchange graph or chart.
Caan, brilliant stuff, thanks for sharing. How long could you do this before getting barred?
It varies. Maybe I'll do a follow up about how they pick up your activity but I've had accounts that have lasted an afternoon and I've had them that have lasted weeks. The ones where it only last a day is usually because a grand or more has been made on that day.
@@CaanBerryProTrader how do you manage to still carry on once you loose accounts, I do abit of trading with matched betting, but find it difficult to replace bookies once the account becomes virtually useless...
travel
Why am I struggling to understand this? haha. How do you decide what is/isn't good value? I thought I was quite switched on.
It could be that I usually just dabble in a punt here and there. But I am struggling to grasp the concept of "winning on sports betting is not about picking the winner, its about getting the right price and then letting variance do the hard work for you".
Any chance you could do a video explaining those tables of price change on the exchange i couldnt rly understand them
Can explain it very simply. Look at 2:58 in the video, the top odds are the 'true odds' the chance of it happening, at 50%. The bottom set of odds are if you got value odds (bigger) and the box at the bottom is the difference between the two. In this case, at 2.58 it's £500. This is the value you are getting in comparison. Play the vid through a bit and you see the odds are changed in the second section showing the difference in value in the bottom box. Make sense?
Cool video, but do you have any videos that have tips on American Sportsbook betting (NBA, NFL, NHL, Draftkings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanduel)? I'm half way through this video and thus far nothing pertains to American Sportsbook betting.
Yes! This will help you - ruclips.net/video/CU1t4PIP7xc/видео.html
Also there's a US playlist we have started with more being added, check it out on the channel page.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks! Watching it now.
this top-down strategy sounds like the sort of thing big syndicates with fast computers can do. can you really compete with them?
You dont need to compete against them, just grab your own bit of value! Can make a lot of money with this when you are strict with the value you take and get some decent stakes on. Have tobe fast though as you say.
I enjoy making money online,there is this good feelings it gives me
Try not to hink about the feeling and think more about the process, thats the key.
Again Caan you are a legend and thank you!!
No problem's, Mike. I shall continue to add decent content like this.
This is fucking true I bet on New Zealand basketball last night after losing like 3-4 parlays on nba playoffs. I bet on average of $25 dollars 5 different times sometimes a little more sometimes a little less and won’t $80-$100 each time. I was so shocked lol. Make sense now after watching this video!
Just subscribed mate you should make a telegram group and post your bets in there maybe ? That would be cool !
Lots have asked about this, but really, I dont think the prices would stay where they need to be long enough to make it viable.
It's a terrible situation. Essentially they drag you in with offers. You open an account and lose, they allow you to continue. You win consistently and they stake limit you to pennies a bet. Even though they offer the price...i.e. they make the book. You don't ask them to price the way they do, they should take some responsibility.
Most people don't realise they do this because it doesn't affect them, as they don't consistently win. If you told those people they wouldn't believe you.
I worked as a Boardman in a shop, and one guy consistently won exclusively using the "union jack" bet. The shop manager banned him from the shop , a real eye opener for me.
Watched 3x and still no idea what you're supposed to do.
What do you know about cryptocurrencies??
If anyone knows how to beat bookies hes not gona say it on youtube cuz its more profitable to keep beting and keep quite
😂😂
@@AB-dx1co
Exactly. I make my living betting on Greyhounds and Tennis. I'm not gonna put it out there. Most people couldn't follow it anyway. They lack the most important thing required to be a consistent winner. PATIENCE!
😂😂😂
Whats is this setup you are using? How can get these numbers on the right of the screen and what websites or services can support my football betting?
The numbers are the exchange trading numbers via a software called geeks toy. Its like seeing the purchase of stocks but on the sports exchange live (supply and demand).
Fair play Caan that’s a very valuable thing to give away. If it was me I wouldn’t have shared!
Several have said the same mate, really powerful if you understand it and do it.
I am starting today with a proper plan and strategy. I will come back in a few months and share my experience. I hope it works.💵
hi Caan , how do you find this mistakes thank you i appreciate the valuable info
look at an exchange where the odds change fast .. and see who book is late
Nice one Caan but am I right Betfair exchange don't restrict winners it's losers you mean basic accounts and those dreadfull bookies .Name a few that restricted me Paddy power I won £300 opened new account again had break but about £300 they restricted me to £14 bets now which Ime baffled.also now sky bet saying I wasnow 100 down again starting with them again yet now a £100 bet they restricted to £74 which I can't understand . These are main two with me .Keep up good work and videos but like you said that video is everything in one maybe all i need really off you..Thanks mate👍
I like the content you give your videos but I would work on the delivery, or at least being clear with who you want your audience to be because as a beginner, this is wayyyyyyy too fast and complicated to process. If the video is meant for intermediate betters I think it's really good but definitely not for beginners.
Maybe you should work on your receiving ;)
@@Dalhi No Diddy
Thank you for explaining this.
I’ve watched this a couple of times so let me get this straight. We find a dog, for example, with higher odds at a bookie than the exchange and back it, with the probability that over time it’ll be profitable? Simple as that?
correct
Happy I read the comments and watched again because first time I didn't see how important the 3 check boxes are as you put it. Was looking at the prices on Sunday and see two races in a row when it happened, thank you for sharing this is one I will come back and see again I am sure.
They are important factors.
I really appreciate your videos but without seeing examples from start to finish (step by step) it’s hard to follow you. I’ve made about 3k over the past 3 months on match betting. This is a bit harder to follow but maybe I need to watch a beginner video
In basic form! Are we looking on there for an arb? Then backing and laying 💫
@@aerishoulihan7249 Without the Lay element, but you are looking for max value on the odds AND the flurry of exchange volume.
Thanks but if I had done that people would have said they didn't understand haha! Maybe I'll follow up with another showing it done.
Ahhhhh right! Now, I’m 100 percent with you
It just clicked! I think your videos are great 💕
I think a run through your process (once) would be a nice summary to your videos. I think people (including myself) feel nervous about misunderstanding and getting it wrong is all x
Mate do you have any strategy or any site to predict tennis stats? The way you explain is so good.
Hi i can help you in that
Prediction isnt really the thing, its more to do with finding a better price than implied chance. What area are you looking at?
You always win when you don't even bet😜
very good although you don't actually win you don't get anything
@@CaanBerryProTrader not really he is winning because he ain’t losing anything
No risk no return
Why are you watching then idiot
@@johnson5725 but there good chance he could have won something if he bet
It's a good strategy, have used it myself. People should just be aware that this will get your accounts banned extremely quickly. Betting on donkeys round Dundalk midweek will do that.
Probably best building up a sizeable bankroll first so you can really take the value rather than betting a fiver.
interesting video but some remarks, general wisdom of the crowd suffers from favorite longshot bias. Also the best of it is in the bookmaker odds. The bookies monitor the best players and move the line according to their picks.
Usually the bet exchange follows the bookmaker line, as many use it to hedge their bets, so every disparity is covered immediately.
How do you check the significant volumes on a bet and what do you check it on?
Makes sooooo much fucking sense, simple but not initially obvious, thanks Caan, you’re the man, I’ve read your pre race guide and watched your vid pack over and over, I’m consistent now, not massively profitable but consistent, that was my goal, thanks for everything dude, hope you start the workshop up again soon, wanted to do your course for ages, did Peter Webb’s one a few years back, but I relate to your methods more !!
Glad to hear you get it, Jay. It's a big one this...
Please moderate your language.
@@Parseenfroo stfu
Not profitable but consistent lol
Thanks Cann great video very much appreciated !!
Hope your doing well mate 👍
Please can you make a practical live video where this method is applied in real time. It's quite confusing TBH.
Yes will do this in the future, don't forget to sub :)
my tip for betting on tomorrow’s (sat 3pm) football is to wait until 2.40pm pending extra postponed matches. We know how the bookmakers scam ppl out of any value if there’s PP games or NR if u have lucky 15s or lucky15 each way. So nothing shorter than 2/1 odds incase u get 3 out 4 for a refund? Betting logic….but massive overdogs and slim odds, do they get paid to keep the score low yes. Do horses get armchair rides out of the places overfull of oats or running on empty. Yes. 2 out of 3 that set off even money or less. Gla
Hi Caan, thanks for this video. although I’m not going to use this strategy entirely it has brought the attention to me of the efficieny of the exchange odds.
No problems, its a good point. Thinking about this in the right way can open up your mind for all manner or other things.
Hi im lovin all the new vids on different strategies ect value betting especially
Cheers mate, all about stripping out value at the end of the day...
100% true. Enjoy.
Tomorrow 3 Fixed games Lobi Stars wins and Kwara wins and Abia Warriors wins.
Have fun guys.
Hope you have Done it
Cheers. Good advice mate. New sub here. 👍🏴
Doing match betting I noticed that myself but never had hurts to
Place bets . I had quite a few long odds winning on horses 😡 I should be thousands of pounds in profit
You tried profitrush.com ?
Wah gwaan i know u said u should only bet on odds like 2.5 up bigger odds than offered .but question for instance the first half goal is 90 % and u get it at odds 1.30 isn't that value cause being that it should be 1.10 since its 90 % probability
Then I was so excited to watch this video! I couldn't understand the word that you said something about horse racing. Who the hell wants to bet on horses!? NFL NBA MLB maybe NHL
It would work on other sports too if there's liqudity on the exchanges. I don't know in the states though as I don't operate there.
I clean up using the date in sports we are living in the matrix😂🤣👍
???
Hello sir, can you please help me. How do I get this tool to see where de volume is, what trades everyone is placing.
Kind regards.
It's called geeks toy for Betfair
@@CaanBerryProTrader Betfair isn't allowed in my country, is there something similar for unibet?
“Don’t let yesterday take up too much of today.” - Will Rogers
Hey Caan - thanks for the video. I've looked through the comments and haven't seen this specifically asked so apologies if so. You say this isn't arbing - and OK you're not laying - but the bookies don't know whether or not you're laying the bet, so if the exchange odds are lower than theirs when you place the bet then in their eyes they will treat this as if you're an arber, right?
do you think the bookies treat arbers and people that take value different? they ban anyone who takes money off of them mate, it's not an ethical thing where they care about what you doing.
@@CaanBerryProTrader No, completely agree. It may or may not be arbing *as well* depending on whether the exchanges are reflecting value - but if it's value you'll win out over time and they'll treat you like an arber in any case (i.e. ban you!) It's just a bit more obvious if it's an arb.
Its not any more or less obvious for them. The question is; did the bet beat the SP? Yes = ban. If it was an open arb they couldnt give two hoots, its a computer algorythim that picks them up. Simple it question - was it a value bet? Account history - only placing value bets in line with SP? Yes = ban. They don't care either way, don't get yourself caught up on it mate.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Cheers Caan - I get what you're saying.
surely we need to se what the bet was placed at tho? we need the name of that data you have?
Surely betting on the SB when the EX has lower odds is the same thing as arbing from the SB's perspective? In other words, the fast route to account limitation, not something that can exploited until the variance evens out?
Thanks very much I will try this thanks man
What do you know about cryptocurrencies?
Bahahaha!!!! Unless you’re on the right side of the “fix”’of a game, you’re always doomed!!!!
Please how do i het on the right side..can you help ols
@@Classical_Akomz you crazy gambler no wonder your on RUclips looking for a tip .the best tip to learn is stop before you start
Please provide me a Betfair id 🙏
Hi can you guide betting about cricket
Nice one Caan, that was extremely well versed making it easier to understand as it is certainly not that straightforward ( well for me anyway). It will that a little time for me to get the hang of but sounds the dogs. Thanks mate for your efforts to help us all beat those evil money grabbing bookies. Much appreciated . I must say I would like to see the master at work as I reckon I going to struggle.
All the best and thanks again
Stay safe, keep healthy and most importantly become filthy rich !! 👍👍💷💷🍺🍺
Paul
Hi
Can I start betting if i dont have any money? And plz do you know how to bet in allfootball?
Brilliant. Thank you for sharing
Bookmakers spot your behaviour and close or limit you VERY quickly these days. I was limited to max bet 75 PENCE !!!!!!! on racing after five bets at one of the tiddlers and limited at a high street name after ONE bet that turned into a steamer. I've run out of bookmakers. Exchange trading is the only sensible place.
I agree they do, part the reason I shared this for free.
Awesome Caan. Thanks for sharing this. I can't understand why bookies don't have some algorithm that just aligns the price with betfair though to update any errors quickly?
Betfair don't like sharing live-live data with providers for this reason.
@@CaanBerryProTrader good to know, thanks
i dont understand why do you let it run? if its 7 on the bookie but at odds of 5.1 you could lay £13.73 liability will be £56.29 overall profit will be £3.71 locked in no need to let it play out, sure this is classic arbing and matched betting im just lost as to why you would ever let it play out
I'm checking the date in case this is an April Fool's joke... but I'm watching regardless. 🤣🤣
Thanks legend.
Ha, nope, this is the real deal. Several have said I shouldn't of shared it.
this is all good but I only like betting on the tennis, will be interesting to know how to place value bets on the tennis.
Sure have you seen the early value tennis video?
@@CaanBerryProTrader nope
All the time new videos to attract customers, follow sequences, bet with value against crowd ;)
Hey Cann from where should I start learning as you got more videos ? I want to know what software you use and if you keep winning they will ban you but can't you open another account??
The software here is geeks toy. Theres a playlist for strategy stuff if you want to learn.
Caan... so I only place a bet when the selection is receiving money on the exchange? And the price is bigger at the bookmakers. Cheers in advanced
Yes, the money part is important, as is the odds.
It can happen
How have you still got a 365 account I'm just a recreational better and also a compulsive gambler/chaser on occasions but have been closes at 365. Also closed/gubbed or limited at 888 /Bet Victor / Coral / Betway and Sky Bet just to name a few. Matchbook have recently also said I don't pass there checks for know their customer or whatever it is where they demand such private info I can't be arsed to supply my financial history and proof of income. Its intrusive so they can do one.
I havent got one haha, see the other vids on the channel if you want to see what they do to me! Double quick time. There's a blog here about them banning me after 6.6k profit caanberry.com/bet365-account-limited/
Great content 👍
Hello bro
Plz odds the win
I think I get this, I'm interested to try it out. What's the best exchange to look at for the live prices and changes? Thanks
All are very similar, they have to be because of arbing. Betfair is the most central exchange.
This has been my betting mantra in a near 50 year punting career ........the only difference for me now is that often Betfair does the form "study" for me ...which is handy ....though of course knowing the form book backwards still gives you the "edge" to stand out from the crowd ....( the crowd WILL always lose ......in the long run ).......didn"t know some bookies priced up greyhound races early .... sounds interesting ............
So do you mean if its arbing then its a good horse to back ?
Or do you mean if the back odds on the bookie and exchange are similar its good ?
Can I clarify? Are you laying the bet off on the exchange? Or just backing the runner that is overs, according to the market, on the Sportsbook and using the laws of probability for long-term profit? BTW, thanks Caan for showing different angles to betting. I was just an on-the-nose punter before.
Not laying off, and its about 3 things the price, the volumes coming late and the time. From the comments its seems a few are not bearing in mind all 3 enough althoug they are mentioned. This is really powerful, if the 3 dont match don't do it.
@@CaanBerryProTrader Thanks Caan. I was confusing with trading and I now get the point of the '3' things aligning after watching again.
what bookmarks do u prefer
Nice video👍... very engaging from beginning to the end. In 2 to 3 years time people will be kicking themselves in regrets for missing the opportunity not buying and investing in crypto.
Which crypto is the best?
Just play under 3 guys it’s the best game you will ever play
Is this the secret you said you would reveal if you get 100k subscriptions? Anyways, good stuff, can't believe I did not think of greyhounds. Top man you are Caan, cheers
Nope, that ones a bit better ;)
Fair play for making money out of betting and you obviously know what your doing. but how am I meant to know what is good odds on an American greyhound?
Ok so thats a bit tricker as you don't have exchanges in the states right? Although I believe you do in Jersey
I’m from uk. So I need an exchange?
Thanks Caan, another great video. I use the last minute volume which shows on the geeks toy ladder against a rating to show a value price for picking winners, l concentrate on handicaps and the Irish races are usually good. The one thing l tend to ignore is pundits going on from the start of a program about a gamble, they do win sometimes as well.
You are right Caan form is not the biggest factor money is.
Volumes are a big indicator, the most important.